TSW Mock Draft 1.0 - Completed

[GunnerBill]

13 minutes ago, Logic said:

Agreed. I maintain that it's a moot point, because Daniels is going to Washington at 2.

The selection of Kliff Kingsbury as OC, the signing of Mariota as backup QB...everything points to a certain kind of RPO, movement, and spread system that they want to run, and Jayden Daniels is the man to run it.

Williams to the Bears and Daniels to the Commanders are picks I'd feel comfortable writing in permanent marker right now, and betting real money on. Beyond that, it's all a crapshoot.

 

I agree. Everyone I speak to thinks Daniels is Washington's guy.

[DCOrange]

3 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I would be really surprised if he fell out of the top 3. But one thing going against him is Chris Simms ranked him as his #6 QB in the class. Some will roll their eyes at this, but while Simms has been too high on a couple QBs (most notably Zach Wilson) I can't remember a time where he ended up being too low on a QB. He seems to have a great eye for identifying mechanical issues that will lead to limited success in the NFL. 

I have a really hard time taking anything Simms says seriously after he credited himself with nailing the Josh Allen draft because he ranked them correctly at one point, but in reality, he changed his rankings like 5 times after that and ultimately had Rosen as his #2 QB and Lamar as his #4.

 

I'm fine with the occasional miss, like being weirdly high on Kellen Mond or having Zach Wilson over Lawrence (though that was honestly pretty egregious IMO). I'm not fine with just putting out a bunch of different versions of rankings and then saying whichever one looks the best in retrospect was the real rankings.

[Virgil]

With the 10th pick of the TSW Draft, the NY Jets select Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State.

 

The Jets almost went receiver here, but Rodgers won't be able to hit those receivers if he's on his back.  Considered to be one of the top Tackles in the draft, Fashanu can step in and immediately protect Rodgers from opposing defenders.  Fashanu, unfortunately, cannot protect Rodgers from the MetLife turf.

 

The Minnesota Vikings @Motorin'are on the clock

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

I have a really hard time taking anything Simms says seriously after he credited himself with nailing the Josh Allen draft because he ranked them correctly at one point, but in reality, he changed his rankings like 5 times after that and ultimately had Rosen as his #2 QB and Lamar as his #4.

 

I'm fine with the occasional miss, like being weirdly high on Kellen Mond or having Zach Wilson over Lawrence (though that was honestly pretty egregious IMO). I'm not fine with just putting out a bunch of different versions of rankings and then saying whichever one looks the best in retrospect was the real rankings.

 

His record the past few years is not great. Loved Drew Lock. Loved Zach Wilson. High on Kellen Mond. High on Matt Corral. 

[Motorin']

2 minutes ago, Virgil said:

With the 10th pick of the TSW Draft, the NY Jets select Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State.

 

The Jets almost went receiver here, but Rodgers won't be able to hit those receivers if he's on his back.  Considered to be one of the top Tackles in the draft, Fashanu can step in and immediately protect Rodgers from opposing defenders.  Fashanu, unfortunately, cannot protect Rodgers from the MetLife turf.

 

The Minnesota Vikings @Motorin'are on the clock

 

With the 11th pick, the Minnesota Vikings select Jayden Daniels, QB LSU...

 

The Denver Broncos, @Big Blitz are on the clock...

 

In the real world, the Vikes will have give up both #1's and possibly a 1st rounder next year in order to snag Daniels. But there may be no chance he gets past Washington at #2. 

 

 

 

[PonyBoy]

13 minutes ago, Virgil said:

With the 10th pick of the TSW Draft, the NY Jets select Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State.

 

The Jets almost went receiver here, but Rodgers won't be able to hit those receivers if he's on his back.  Considered to be one of the top Tackles in the draft, Fashanu can step in and immediately protect Rodgers from opposing defenders.  Fashanu, unfortunately, cannot protect Rodgers from the MetLife turf.

 

The Minnesota Vikings @Motorin'are on the clock

 

BOOOOO! 🙄 What are you doing to this team? You're killing us! 😉

 

Just kidding Virgil, nice work as always on this mock draft. 

[DCOrange]

28 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

His record the past few years is not great. Loved Drew Lock. Loved Zach Wilson. High on Kellen Mond. High on Matt Corral. 

To be fair, the Lawrence draft after Lawrence was pretty dreadful. Likewise with 2022. I know he said Mond was like the best passer in the draft class which is simply asinine. I can't remember the comments about Corral but somebody has to be ranked somewhat high in each class lol. I don't think his track record is horrendous or anything but he has significant misses just like everyone else does.

[HappyDays]

33 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

His record the past few years is not great. Loved Drew Lock. Loved Zach Wilson. High on Kellen Mond. High on Matt Corral. 

 

Yeah he has a type. He likes QBs with great physical traits and a great release. He bets on those traits and ends up wrong like 50% of the time. But I really can't remember a time when he was too low on a QB. Even Trevor Lawrence who he was lower on than others, I don't think the "generational prospect" label has come close to being true. So when Simms says he is lower than the consensus on a QB that is when I place more weight on his opinion.

[Virgil]

27 minutes ago, PonyBoy said:

 

BOOOOO! 🙄 What are you doing to this team? You're killing us! 😉

 

Just kidding Virgil, nice work as always on this mock draft. 

 

That was a tough pick to make.  Even with seeing other mock drafts taking him at that spot, it felt like a reach.  Going WR made a lot of sense, but they already have a decent group.  That team is also so stacked, that BPA didn't make a lot of sense.

 

I honestly debated going QB, knowing that Rodgers only has a year or so left, but I felt like people would riot

[Rigotz]

So ... the consensus #2/#3 QB, Jayden Daniels is still on the board at #11.

 

The Giants, Titans, Falcons, and Jets all pass on him at picks 6-10.

 

We really think they would take people like Dallas Turner and Jared Verse instead of a QB with Franchise upside?

 

I typically love this thread, but it's off to an embarrassing start.

[gonzo1105]

1 minute ago, Rigotz said:

So ... the consensus #2/#3 QB, Jayden Daniels is still on the board at #11.

 

The Giants, Titans, Falcons, and Jets all pass on him at picks 6-10.

 

We really think they would take people like Dallas Turner and Jared Verse instead of a QB with Franchise upside?

 

I typically love this thread, but it's off to an embarrassing start.

It’s actually working out fine because Minnesota offered me for the 4th pick which I would have done if they were allowed. So it really fell how it truly would  as it pertains to the QBs at least 

[Logic]

4 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

So ... the consensus #2/#3 QB, Jayden Daniels is still on the board at #11.

 

The Giants, Titans, Falcons, and Jets all pass on him at picks 6-10.

 

We really think they would take people like Dallas Turner and Jared Verse instead of a QB with Franchise upside?

 

I typically love this thread, but it's off to an embarrassing start.

While I agree that Daniels won't last this long and have stated my belief that he'll go #2 overall...

A quarterback that the experts all guarantee us will go high ends up falling on draft day just about every single year. It happens constantly. I'd bet on the faller being Maye instead of Daniels, but still...the notion of a highly touted QB prospect falling down the board really isn't all that farfetched. There are piles of precedent for it.

[Virgil]

9 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

So ... the consensus #2/#3 QB, Jayden Daniels is still on the board at #11.

 

The Giants, Titans, Falcons, and Jets all pass on him at picks 6-10.

 

We really think they would take people like Dallas Turner and Jared Verse instead of a QB with Franchise upside?

 

I typically love this thread, but it's off to an embarrassing start.

 

The lack of trades are going to impact this one a bit.  I fully believe the Vikings, at min, are going to trade up.  I do agree with you that the Giants probably would have gone QB, but if they don't love any of those guys and they get a generational WR, I can see it.

[Big Blitz]

Got a few things to finish with work - I’ll be on the phone with Coach Payton and hope to make this pick within the hour.  

[Sweats]

59 minutes ago, Virgil said:

With the 10th pick of the TSW Draft, the NY Jets select Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State.

 

The Jets almost went receiver here, but Rodgers won't be able to hit those receivers if he's on his back.  Considered to be one of the top Tackles in the draft, Fashanu can step in and immediately protect Rodgers from opposing defenders.  Fashanu, unfortunately, cannot protect Rodgers from the MetLife turf.

 

The Minnesota Vikings @Motorin'are on the clock

 

 

 

 

I agree that this would probably be the best pick for the Jets at 10th, however, i put no faith into that organization for making the best possible picks

[GunnerBill]

23 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Yeah he has a type. He likes QBs with great physical traits and a great release. He bets on those traits and ends up wrong like 50% of the time. But I really can't remember a time when he was too low on a QB. Even Trevor Lawrence who he was lower on than others, I don't think the "generational prospect" label has come close to being true. So when Simms says he is lower than the consensus on a QB that is when I place more weight on his opinion.

 

The 2020 class was his best moment IMO. He got that spot on:

 

Burrow, Herbert, Love, Tua. If they were redrafted today that would be the order (though I still think Love is on the rise).

[MrEpsYtown]

10 minutes ago, Logic said:

While I agree that Daniels won't last this long and have stated my belief that he'll go #2 overall...

A quarterback that the experts all guarantee us will go high ends up falling on draft day just about every single year. It happens constantly. I'd bet on the faller being Maye instead of Daniels, but still...the notion of a highly touted QB prospect falling down the board really isn't all that farfetched. There are piles of precedent for it.

100% agree with this take. For our mock draft all the QBs pretty much went where QBs are gonna go, just Daniels was the one that dropped in this instance. I am not sure that is going to happen but QBs goin 1-2-3 and the Vikings getting the 4th is probably what will happen (though Vikings will probably trade up). The draft is still on track. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

10 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

The lack of trades are going to impact this one a bit.  I fully believe the Vikings, at min, are going to trade up.  I do agree with you that the Giants probably would have gone QB, but if they don't love any of those guys and they get a generational WR, I can see it.

Agree. Drafting for the Giants I almost pulled that trigger on the QB, wouldn't shock me if they would in that spot. Will be interesting to see how the draft falls and perhaps the plan we have comes to fruition. 

[BarleyNY]

25 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

That was a tough pick to make.  Even with seeing other mock drafts taking him at that spot, it felt like a reach.  Going WR made a lot of sense, but they already have a decent group.  That team is also so stacked, that BPA didn't make a lot of sense.

 

I honestly debated going QB, knowing that Rodgers only has a year or so left, but I felt like people would riot

 

This brings up a good question. Are we supposed to draft like we would or like we think the team will?

[PastaJoe]

2 hours ago, Virgil said:

@PastaJoeOne hour remaining for your pick.  Please don't make us miss one in the top 10

Sorry I was playing hockey and didn’t get done in time to pick. But if I had I would have picked QB Daniels, the value was too good to pass.

[Virgil]

1 minute ago, BarleyNY said:

 

This brings up a good question. Are we supposed to draft like we would or like we think the team will?

 

You are the GM of the team and should draft based upon the best interest of the team.  I hope the GM would take the time to research what that would be.

 

We will be lucky if we get 5% of our picks correct.  With that being said, I know many GM's goals on here is accuracy to how it will all play out

[Doc Brown]

Just now, Virgil said:

 

You are the GM of the team and should draft based upon the best interest of the team.  I hope the GM would take the time to research what that would be.

 

We will be lucky if we get 5% of our picks correct.  With that being said, I know many GM's goals on here is accuracy to how it will all play out

So it's not a pick that you hope the team will make that helps out the Bills the most?  I guess the Dolphins won't be taking a first round punter this year.

[Sweats]

5 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

In reality I think someone would have traded up at this point, but it’s tough to pull off trades with the draft flying and people having lives. 
 

I do think it’s realistic that this drop will happen to one of the those 4 guys, but I think it is more likely to happen to Maye or McCarthy. JJ is the wildcard here because it seemed like he was a 2nd rounder and now all of a sudden people are talking about him in the top 5. I’m not sure I buy it. 
 

But if you believe in your ability to develop a QB, Maye in many ways is the prototype. Whether you like Maye or not, I’d bet there are 10-15 GMs who have him ahead of Daniels and there are probably like 5 guys who have him 1 ahead of Williams. It’s a pick your flavor situation imo. It happens all the time. 
 

I might add I was having this same debate on Herbert with people on the board a couple of years ago. He was inconsistent, but I was buying that piece of clay and I still think he’s the best QB in that class. Maye isn’t Herbert, but he has similar traits. 

 

 

 

I have a sneaking suspicion that the Pats are going to want JD. I think they'll see him as an elusive moving threat that can somewhat throw the ball with accuracy, however, he'll be able to scramble and keep plays alive.....something the Pats will sorely need to keep up in the AFCEast with our Bills.

 

Just a gut feeling....

[Motorin']

2 minutes ago, PastaJoe said:

Sorry I was playing hockey and didn’t get done in time to pick. But if I had I would have picked QB Daniels, the value was too good to pass.

 

The Vikings are throwing a party in your honor!

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

You are the GM of the team and should draft based upon the best interest of the team.  I hope the GM would take the time to research what that would be.

 

We will be lucky if we get 5% of our picks correct.  With that being said, I know many GM's goals on here is accuracy to how it will all play out

 

I will be picking on what I would do if I was the GM based on the roster, the board and the value. I won't be imitating Les Snead. If I was I'd have traded my first round pick away 3 years ago 😄

[PastaJoe]

11 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

The Vikings are throwing a party in your honor!

In a real situation I would have listened to trade offers for the pick.

[BuffaloBillyG]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I will be picking on what I would do if I was the GM based on the roster, the board and the value. I won't be imitating Les Snead. If I was I'd have traded my first round pick away 3 years ago 😄

Honestly one of the most unbelievable "stats" in football is that Snead hasn't made a pick in the first round since 2016. That's just astonishing...and even more so that they have made 2 Super Bowls since that time. Flies in the face of almost every "unwritten rule" about team building.

[mannc]

44 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

So ... the consensus #2/#3 QB, Jayden Daniels is still on the board at #11.

 

The Giants, Titans, Falcons, and Jets all pass on him at picks 6-10.

 

We really think they would take people like Dallas Turner and Jared Verse instead of a QB with Franchise upside?

 

I typically love this thread, but it's off to an embarrassing start.

In a year like this, it’s almost pointless to do a no-trade mock

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Question also becomes...how do they sell that idea to Rodgers? Would he be happy his eventual replacement is drafted rather than something that could help him in the short term? And what kind of say so are they allowing him to have in the draft process?

It would suck for Rodgers.  It could hurt the team in 2024.  He needs to understand. QBs rule. It’s not like his entire career hasn’t revolved the exact same situation. 
 

it really should come down to how Douglas feels about Daniels.  If he thinks he’s special, he should be the pick. If he doesn’t, he shouldn’t be.  
 

as stated, there’s no way Daniels falls to 10 imo.  

[Virgil]

11 minutes ago, mannc said:

In a year like this, it’s almost pointless to do a no-trade mock

 

You're not wrong.  When we started these, there weren't nearly as many trades occurring.  However, I like to still have one non-trade mock because it does still show where we think value would be, and if teams don't end up trading, we have at least this one mock with teams where they stayed at.  

In the trades mock, the moment we have that trade and it doesn't actually happen in real life, we are wrong.

 

I look at our overall mock success based upon the culmination of the three mocks.  Which is also why I don't allow the Bills pick to be the same player in any of the mocks

[gonzo1105]

1 minute ago, Virgil said:

 

You're not wrong.  When we started these, there weren't nearly as many trades occurring.  However, I like to still have one non-trade mock because it does still show where we think value would be, and if teams don't end up trading, we have at least this one mock with teams where they stayed at.  

In the trades mock, the moment we have that trade and it doesn't actually happen in real life, we are wrong.

 

I look at our overall mock success based upon the culmination of the three mocks.  Which is also why I don't allow the Bills pick to be the same player in any of the mocks

Motorin actually offered me the two ones and I would have hoped Fashanu or Odunze dropped and neither did so I would have been slightly reaching for Brian Thomas or taking Quinyon Mitchell who I have as the # 1 CB 

[TPS]

1 minute ago, gonzo1105 said:

Motorin actually offered me the two ones and I would have hoped Fashanu or Odunze dropped and neither did so I would have been slightly reaching for Brian Thomas or taking Quinyon Mitchell who I have as the # 1 CB 

Yeah, he was already trying to wheel and deal, offered me a boatload for #3!

[BuffaloBillyG]

26 minutes ago, NewEra said:

It would suck for Rodgers.  It could hurt the team in 2024.  He needs to understand. QBs rule. It’s not like his entire career hasn’t revolved the exact same situation. 
 

it really should come down to how Douglas feels about Daniels.  If he thinks he’s special, he should be the pick. If he doesn’t, he shouldn’t be.  
 

as stated, there’s no way Daniels falls to 10 imo.  

I think the Daniels discourse should actually start at pick 3 in this mock. Daniels is likely off the board in the top 3 picks and if Washington doesn't take him (I think they will) New England will either run to the podium or take a deal for an unGodly amount of picks IMO from Minnesota. 

 

But I don't see any way they pass over Daniels for JJ McCarthy. That switch started the chaos 😂

[Big Blitz]

The Broncos, make no mistake, we’re tanking.  

I don’t know how you can look at this team and reach any other conclusion.  In a “trades” draft, we’re going to look to stock some draft capital.  
 

Are we tanking for Sanders?  Maybe.  But it’s a good QB class in 25.  
 

Anyway, that QB will need weapons…

 

With the 12th pick in the 2024 draft the Denver Broncos select Brian Thomas, WR, LSU.  He might not be the best WR in this class but we’re probably trading Sutton who is going to be 29 in October.  We need to have a rookie on a first round rookie contract.  

 

 

@LEBills and the Raiders are on the clock.  
 

 

Edited April 2 by Big Blitz

[section122]

4 Qbs and 4 WRs in the first 12 picks.  I wonder if that has ever happened? 

 

Also only 2 defenders taken so far and both edge rushers.  

 

Some interesting trends developing. 

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I think if Alt is gone, it’s either gonna be WR or edge. Hopkins has just the one year left so this is a long term play. I don’t think Latham is the choice here. For me it was between Nabers or Turner and I just think Nabers is the better prospect. 

Yeah nothing wrong with your pick, I get your logic even though I’m more doubtful they go WR in the real draft at this spot after signing Ridley.  Still understand why you made it though

[mannc]

11 minutes ago, section122 said:

4 Qbs and 4 WRs in the first 12 picks.  I wonder if that has ever happened? 

 

Also only 2 defenders taken so far and both edge rushers.  

 

Some interesting trends developing. 

Seems about right…

[Motorin']

43 minutes ago, TPS said:

Yeah, he was already trying to wheel and deal, offered me a boatload for #3!

 

I didn't read the rules! 

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

 

This brings up a good question. Are we supposed to draft like we would or like we think the team will?

 

I try to do a mix of both. For the Jets for example I personally would draft a QB in the 1st round, but knowing that the current regime is on the hot seat I would not choose a QB if I was picking for them.

[LEBills]

With the 13th pick, the Las Vegas Raiders select Taliese Fuaga, OT, OSU . @frostbitmic Is now on the clock. 
 

Laitu was so enticing, we had to hold Antonio Pierce back. Though we want the defensive line to be a strength we don’t want to hamper the growth of Tyree Wilson. Cornerback was also in consideration for this pick but we like the depth later in the draft.

 

Since we blew up our offensive line a few years ago we have been looking to rebuild it. Once we do that we can think about adding a top QB prospect next year. Adding Fuaga gives us a cornerstone RT. HC Pierce is an old school linebacker so you know he believes in setting the tone and being nasty up front.