MAJBobby Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Just now, stinky finger said: Everyone watched that 200 yard, 4 TD playoff performance and thinks it carried over. Yep, and that performance never came close to replicating or even maintaining a steady able to count on performance week to week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DasNootz Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 14 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said: No, you're not alone with that thought. I'm less amazed that Gabe got bank because teams overpay for WR2 all the time. What HAS surprised me is that quality #2 guys are signing for far less than I expected on the market. Spotrac had him at $11.5M AAV and the Bills got him for $8 M a year (with potential void years) and Marquise Brown for $7 M I think the Bills made the more financially sound move. Agreed - at this price point he can be a WR3 or WR2b... what Gabe should have been. I'd still take a Round 1 WR to have a true WR2 and potential WR1 when Diggs declines. Diggs, Rd(1)ROOKIE, Samuel, Shakir, Shorter/Hollins paired with Kincaid and Knox is pretty formidable. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beck Water Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 (edited) 37 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said: No, you're not alone with that thought. I'm less amazed that Gabe got bank because teams overpay for WR2 all the time. What HAS surprised me is that quality #2 guys are signing for far less than I expected on the market. Spotrac had him at $11.5M AAV and the Bills got him for $8 M a year (with potential void years) and Marquise Brown for $7 M I think the Bills made the more financially sound move. This is totally a guess, but with 3 year/$24M $15M guaranteed, I think we'll find that breaks down to something like a $12M signing bonus with a void year ($3M/yr), vet min salary for >6 years of $1.2M, $0.8M of per-game roster bonuses so $5M cap hit. 2025, $3M salary for a $6M cap hit. 2026, $7M salary so $10M cap hit, but no new money guaranteed. If he's making good here at age 30, Bills will try to extend him. $2M of the reported $24M would be incentives for stuff like >1000 yd season, >80 receptions, pro bowl, all-pro, and so forth. So my guestimater would break it down as: 2022: $5M cap hit 2023: $6M cap hit 2024: $10M cap hit 2025: FA, $3M void year to extend signing bonus If I'm right-sh, that's a dang good deal for a player who has been solid and consistent and played mostly from the slot. WRT the statement up-thread that KC's contract for Marquise Brown is "better", that's gonna depend upon how you see it. Brown was a former 1st round pick who the Cards swapped a 1st round pick for, because he has the potential to be elite. He's had one VG season out of 5 so far. For his potential and pedigree, the Chiefs got him at a fire sale. 1 of 2 things will happen: 1) he lives up to his potential with Mahomes targeting him and the Chiefs either pay him the big bucks or watch him walk 2) he doesn't and they over-paid for his actual performance, as they did with MVS. It's kind of a high risk/high reward type thing. The Bills contract is more steady-eddy. They got a consistent performer who has spent much of his career with "meh" QBs or QB on the downhill slide, and locked up his services for several seasons at a fair price. He's unlikely to take over the field, but they could potentially get Beasley-like value from him for several seasons and he's unlikely to "bust" if he stays healthy. More of a high floor/low ceiling kind of thing. Edited March 15 by Beck Water Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhitewalkerInPhilly Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 1 minute ago, Beck Water said: This is totally a guess, but with 3 year/$24M $15M guaranteed, I think we'll find that breaks down to something like a $12M signing bonus with a void year ($3M/yr), vet min salary for >6 years of $1.2M, $0.8M of per-game roster bonuses so $5M cap hit. 2025, $3M salary for a $6M cap hit. 2026, $7M salary so $10M cap hit, but no new money guaranteed. If he's making good here at age 30, Bills will try to extend him. $2M of the reported $24M would be incentives for stuff like >1000 yd season, >80 receptions, pro bowl, all-pro, and so forth. So my guestimater would break it down as: 2022: $5M cap hit 2023: $6M cap hit 2024: $10M cap hit 2025: FA, $3M void year to extend signing bonus If I'm right, that's a dang good deal. That's along what I was thinking. There might be just enough money in the bannana stand to get a discount S starter and then we are free for BPA 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BADOLBILZ Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 (edited) 8 hours ago, papazoid said: i love me some Dhop......i helped get to hundreds of pages... Dhop signed with TEN for 2 yr / $26 mil / AAV $13 / 2024 cap of $18.3 / runs 4.57 / elite hands / 31 yo Samuel signed with BUF for 3 yr / $24-30 ? / AAV $8-10 / 2024 cap of $8.0 ? / runs 4.31 / swiss army knife like deebo / 27 yo younger, cheaper, faster They aren't really comparable though.........DHop is in another tier altogether and is a true outside receiver and 14-15 yards per reception type deep threat. There would have been no redundancy with DHop going into 2024 as DHop can excel at either outside position and Gabe would have been on the way out. Samuel would have even actually been an excellent addition to a Diggs/DHop/Shakir mix(knowing Diggs and/or DHop would be on their way out in 2026) and at $8M aav it wouldn't necessarily have been an either-or situation with their AAV's only combining for around $20M. The problem with Samuel is that he isn't really a guy you can just line up outside every down. His versatility is a selling point but his inability to be a "one" at either outside spot is why his career production is more modest than his athleticism and metrics like the separation and initial route speed numbers posted in this thread would suggest it should be. Yeah, the QB matters but for top starters like DHop the quality of QB doesn't show up in the form of tamped down stats. I know we have a lot of people out there who want to poo-poo the importance of the X position but having strength there forces defense's to defend a much bigger field. Samuel isn't really a big threat downfield. He's just not. I like his addition a lot and at $8M I don't expect him to be a stud but he gets small downfield. And if defense's don't fear your deep throw ability they will start squatting and taking away the YAC potential on shorter throws. That's how the NFL works. Edited March 15 by BADOLBILZ 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Green Lightning Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 16 hours ago, babulator said: Good news! He's certainly a gamer, just wish we weren't so enamored with small WR's. With Diggs, Shakir and Samuel, at least half our WR room will be 6ft or under. No complaints with the signing just hoping for more size moving forward. He's an inch taller than Tyreek and ran a 4.31. He'll be fine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longtimebillsfan Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 9 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said: Yeah not getting DHop was just idiotic. Hopkins was extraordinary AGAIN in 2023 despite a totally unstable QB situation. I like Samuel and the nice thing is that he likely has that 600 yard kinda "floor" but might also have the upside to be a poor man's Diggs replacement in 2025 if they decide to cut bait from Stefon. It just would have been so much simpler to have a full size outside WR like Hopkins. I understand there was some risk with Hopkins but his skillset was pretty unique and man..............could that offense have been explosive. Did you guys consider that the Bills didn't have the cap space to sign Hopkins at tge time? It is amazing that some people on this board find something to complain about with every move the Bills make or don't make. Enjoy the ride. Beane knows a bit more about assembling a team than most of us. He has earned our trust. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beck Water Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 1 hour ago, DasNootz said: I like the signing and value. Maybe it's a "grass is always greener" mindset, but how is Gabe Davis worth 1.5x Samuel or Hollywood Brown in the open market? I understand that he's younger, but his health has always been an issue. What am I missing? He had one historic game several years ago, but otherwise has been very pedestrian. He never had a 1,000 yard season, never had 50 receptions... despite being in a pass heavy offense with a great QB, and 3 different OCs had a desire/need to get him more involved. It's a good question. I think the narrative is that Gabe has produced more consistently with the lower percentage downfield catches he's been asked to make, but that he has untapped potential because Josh has had poor decision making in choosing to throw to Gabe, and perhaps made the wrong read on option routes with Gabe. Pederson likely thinks with a QB who plays more in-control and in-system throwing to him, his performance will make a jump, and it may. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dillenger4 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 42 minutes ago, ngbills said: People need to throw out 2021. Didn’t really play. Just spoke to a good friend who works with an NFL team. Says that Samuel will most likely be "another McKenzie". Very similar player to McKenzie. Thinks we way overpaid. Take it as food for thought... just sharing. I'm kinda mute on this signing. It feels like a glorified sherfield/harty move. 2 minutes ago, Beck Water said: It's a good question. I think the narrative is that Gabe has produced more consistently with the lower percentage downfield catches he's been asked to make, but that he has untapped potential because Josh has had poor decision making in choosing to throw to Gabe, and perhaps made the wrong read on option routes with Gabe. Pederson likely thinks with a QB who plays more in-control and in-system throwing to him, his performance will make a jump, and it may. I agree 100%. Davis will be missed boys. You watch... 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted March 15 Author Share Posted March 15 2 minutes ago, longtimebillsfan said: Did you guys consider that the Bills didn't have the cap space to sign Hopkins at tge time? It is amazing that some people on this board find something to complain about with every move the Bills make or don't make. Enjoy the ride. Beane knows a bit more about assembling a team than most of us. He has earned our trust. Brandon Beane’s idea of assembling a team resulted in Trent Sherfield whiffing on passes in the biggest game of the season which was the last one. Don’t piss on our heads and tell us it’s raining. The WR room has been atrocious since 2020 and got worse every year. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dillenger4 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 11 hours ago, stevestojan said: Can someone tell me how I’m supposed to feel about this? I’m not reading 24 pages for work, much less for a FA signing. We got Lil Dummie back basically. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warriorspikes51 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 4 minutes ago, Dillenger4 said: Just spoke to a good friend who works with an NFL team. Says that Samuel will most likely be "another McKenzie". Very similar player to McKenzie. Thinks we way overpaid. Take it as food for thought... just sharing. I'm kinda mute on this signing. It feels like a glorified sherfield/harty move. I agree 100%. Davis will be missed boys. You watch... Uh huh....no. Let me know when McKenzie has 850 receiving and 200 rushing in a season as a role player 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dillenger4 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Just now, Warriorspikes51 said: Uh huh....no. Let me know when McKenzie has 850 receiving and 200 rushing in a season as a role player Buddy - that was what, 4 years ago? pffft Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warriorspikes51 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Just now, Dillenger4 said: Buddy - that was what, 4 years ago? pffft That was with our current OC on a far less talented team 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warriorspikes51 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Early projection: 70 receptions for 910 - 7 TDs 40 carries for 225 - 2 TDs 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trogdor Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 17 minutes ago, Green Lightning said: He's an inch taller than Tyreek and ran a 4.31. He'll be fine. Their stats aren't comparable. He ran a fast 40 which they train for, but straight line speed is very overrated in the NFL. Tyreek is a freak because of his agility. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aussie Joe Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 12 minutes ago, Dillenger4 said: Just spoke to a good friend who works with an NFL team. Says that Samuel will most likely be "another McKenzie". Very similar player to McKenzie. Thinks we way overpaid. Take it as food for thought... just sharing. What team ? Maybe we can assess some of their FA deals … ? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BADOLBILZ Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 12 minutes ago, longtimebillsfan said: Did you guys consider that the Bills didn't have the cap space to sign Hopkins at tge time? It is amazing that some people on this board find something to complain about with every move the Bills make or don't make. Enjoy the ride. Beane knows a bit more about assembling a team than most of us. He has earned our trust. They hadn't exhausted their ability to create space by any means. You have to understand this by now, don't you? It's all entertainment to me. Winning a SB doesn't change my fandom one bit but it's the objective of playing the game so I'd like to see them reach that. So save your "enjoy the ride" for whoever is riding you. Speaking of which where is @Sherlock Holmes? I miss his commentary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Green Lightning Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 3 hours ago, bmur66 said: Still need someone to push Diggs for the no.1 reciever spot. Pick #28 or second rounder. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chandler#81 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 10 hours ago, Bangarang said: I think he's similar to Gabe in that he's better suited as a #3 or 4 WR but will not live up to being expected to be a legit #2. and you know this ‘how’, exactly? Your crystal ball or your crystal meth? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blacklabel Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Good gravy...some of the comments through this thread....makes it embarrassing to be a fan of the same team with some of youse. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat68 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 He has plenty ability to get down field. He can do a little bit of everything. He helps the offense become more unpredictable. Based off sub packages and personal the offense was easy to pick up tendencies. Mckenzie and Harty watch for motion ect. Samuel can do all that stuff plus function as a tradition slot or line up outside. I would compare it to the Beasley signing. A solid vet Wr in their prime. Beasley had some of his best years here and I can see the same thing for him. This is not a nothing signing but compared to Mooney and Davis I think its a win when you look at what he does and how much was paid. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Green Lightning Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 1 hour ago, ngbills said: People need to throw out 2021. Didn’t really play. The crap QBs he played with likely couldn't throw the ball that far... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jauronimo Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 16 hours ago, Roundybout said: He’s only 27? For some reason I had it in my head he’s in his 30s. nice move! Thought he was hamstrung last season by bad quarterback play I also immediately thought "isn't he old and always hurt?". Hes 27 and has missed 2 games in the last 2 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangarang Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 (edited) 17 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said: and you know this ‘how’, exactly? Your crystal ball or your crystal meth? His entire body of work maybe? Or is it the meth you're taking that makes you think a guy who's been a complementary piece on offense for the last 7 years is going to suddenly emerge and become a bonafide #2 guy? Do you also believe Mack Hollins is the replacement for Diggs as well? Edited March 15 by Bangarang 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longtimebillsfan Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 33 minutes ago, FireChans said: Brandon Beane’s idea of assembling a team resulted in Trent Sherfield whiffing on passes in the biggest game of the season which was the last one. Don’t piss on our heads and tell us it’s raining. The WR room has been atrocious since 2020 and got worse every year. Yea. The Bills have been a train wreck since Beane has arrived. Get real. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dillenger4 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 19 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said: Early projection: 70 receptions for 910 - 7 TDs 40 carries for 225 - 2 TDs I sure hope so. TBH - I was sucked into the Sherfield/Harty hype last year. I hope Samuel can produce for us. People always use the "on a far less talented team" theory. I get it - but please keep in mind that far less talented team only won 5 games all season. Opposing defences played them much "softer"/prevent D as they had the early big lead. So receivers naturally gain more yards, hence their stats are fluffed. The Bills face tougher scenarios vs opposing D's most of the time. We will see how he does. Gadget type's usually falter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longtimebillsfan Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 19 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: They hadn't exhausted their ability to create space by any means. You have to understand this by now, don't you? It's all entertainment to me. Winning a SB doesn't change my fandom one bit but it's the objective of playing the game so I'd like to see them reach that. So save your "enjoy the ride" for whoever is riding you. Speaking of which where is @Sherlock Holmes? I miss his commentary. You are so clever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warriorspikes51 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Dillenger4 said: I sure hope so. TBH - I was sucked into the Sherfield/Harty hype last year. I hope Samuel can produce for us. People always use the "on a far less talented team" theory. I get it - but please keep in mind that far less talented team only won 5 games all season. Opposing defences played them much "softer"/prevent D as they had the early big lead. So receivers naturally gain more yards, hence their stats are fluffed. The Bills face tougher scenarios vs opposing D's most of the time. We will see how he does. Gadget type's usually falter. He's not a gadget player though. He can be used in any capacity really. He just happens to be talented at running as well as receiving He is also not that small.... 5'11 200 lbs Edited March 15 by Warriorspikes51 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DasNootz Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 washed up Cam Newton, Kyle Allen, Teddy Bridgewater, Taylor Heinicke, washed up Carson Wentz and Sam Howell... that's who he's had throwing to him. I think it's realistic for him to match his best years here... which puts him at Gabe's production levels at less money. It works if we find a solid WR2 in the draft and dont expect Samuel to be more than he is. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted March 15 Author Share Posted March 15 3 minutes ago, longtimebillsfan said: Yea. The Bills have been a train wreck since Beane has arrived. Get real. Trent Sherfield had 1 catch for 7 yards in 2 postseason games. Great work Beane! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BananaB Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Bangarang said: His entire body of work maybe? Or is it the meth you're taking that makes you think a guy who's been a complementary piece on offense is going to suddenly emerge after 7 years as a bonafide #2 guy? Do you also believe Mack Hollins is the replacement for Diggs as well? Because he ain’t a scrub like Sherfield and Harty. Hollins is a scrub to and shouldn’t be in the same conversation as Samuel. Samuel has been a solid player and has produced pretty consistently. No who else was like that when they came here, Beasley and Brown. They both played their best football with Allen, so has Diggs for that matter. Guess we’ll have to wait and see but I think we got a solid player who has had numerous productive seasons in the NFL, as opposed to Sherfield and Harty who Beane signed having one decent season. Hollins can be put in that category too Edited March 15 by BananaB 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beck Water Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 (edited) 46 minutes ago, Dillenger4 said: Just spoke to a good friend who works with an NFL team. Says that Samuel will most likely be "another McKenzie". Very similar player to McKenzie. Thinks we way overpaid. Take it as food for thought... just sharing. I'm kinda mute on this signing. It feels like a glorified sherfield/harty move. I don't know what role your friend holds with what NFL team, so that's kind of a pig in a poke. But (and remember, I liked McKenzie) I don't see how anyone in talent evaluation for an NFL team can seriously make that comparison. Excepting 2021 when he was injured, Samuel has been a consistent 64 reception, 687 yd per season guy for the last 4 years - primarily (~70%) from the slot. And that's with the likes of The Ghost of Cam Newton, Kyle Allen, Will Grier, Taylor Heinicke, The Ghost of Carson Wentz, and a promising but young Sam Howell throwing him the ball. McKenzie got his chance to start from the slot in 2022, and the best he managed was 42 receptions for 423 yds. That's his BEST year. He had another chance to earn starting snaps in the slot from the Colts, and he barely saw the field (11% of offensive snaps) until he actually got suspended for "conduct detrimental to the team". McKenzie came into the league as a fast guy who could barely run routes, and developed into an acceptable route runner with a limited tree, who could get choked off by physical play. Samuel came into the league able to run routes (that's why he was drafted in the 2nd) and improved from there, and he's a little fireplug. Harty was a rifle shot signed for potential. His best season was 36 receptions for 570 yds. The Bills were hoping he'd return to form from his 2022 injury. News flash: he didn't. Some days you da windshield, some days you da bug. Sherfield was a career ST guy who had a pretty good season as the #3 WR behind two very dangerous WR1s. He contributed here on ST and on offense consistent with his prior seasons when he wasn't playing behind Hill and Waddle - solid blocking, occasional receptions. 25 minutes ago, Mat68 said: He has plenty ability to get down field. He can do a little bit of everything. He helps the offense become more unpredictable. Based off sub packages and personal the offense was easy to pick up tendencies. Mckenzie and Harty watch for motion ect. Samuel can do all that stuff plus function as a tradition slot or line up outside. I would compare it to the Beasley signing. A solid vet Wr in their prime. Beasley had some of his best years here and I can see the same thing for him. This is not a nothing signing but compared to Mooney and Davis I think its a win when you look at what he does and how much was paid. *ding* *ding* *ding* That's the hope. Edited March 15 by Beck Water 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dillenger4 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 8 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said: He's not a gadget player though. He can be used in any capacity really. He just happens to be talented at running as well as receiving He is also not that small.... 5'11 200 lbs Yeah - I'm warming up to the move. He sure runs hard! I like that. Catch and pound. Shakir does too at times. So does Diggs. Could be pretty cool if they all pan out next year! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruffalo Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Analytics guys seem to have loved this signing. Matt Harmon of reception perception loves this move, I'm not saying his word is gospel, but he was right about Diggs too when we traded for him. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warriorspikes51 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 1 minute ago, Bruffalo said: Analytics guys seem to have loved this signing. Matt Harmon of reception perception loves this move, I'm not saying his word is gospel, but he was right about Diggs too when we traded for him. Samuel is one of the most explosive WR's off the line and his separation yards were the same as Tyreek Hill at 3.3 avg 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 6 minutes ago, Dillenger4 said: I sure hope so. TBH - I was sucked into the Sherfield/Harty hype last year. I hope Samuel can produce for us. People always use the "on a far less talented team" theory. I get it - but please keep in mind that far less talented team only won 5 games all season. Opposing defences played them much "softer"/prevent D as they had the early big lead. So receivers naturally gain more yards, hence their stats are fluffed. The Bills face tougher scenarios vs opposing D's most of the time. We will see how he does. Gadget type's usually falter. On the plus side, i think he's done better over his career than sherfield or harty ever has. I can see them using shakir on punt returns now as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beck Water Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 1 minute ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said: On the plus side, i think he's done better over his career than sherfield or harty ever has. I can see them using shakir on punt returns now as well. There's no "think" about it. Samuel HAS done far better in his career, than Sherfield or Harty have done in their careers as receivers. His worst season of play since his rookie year is about the same as their best season. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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