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How often top UFA WRs get open vs single man coverage


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Honest question, did our WR’s struggle against man coverage that much this year? So much so that it was a more primary way of defending us?
 

To my eye, I didn’t see more than normal amounts of man coverage in 2023. 
 

I would also be interested in knowing where Diggs, Kincaid and Shakir ranked in a list like this, but obviously they aren’t UFAS. It’s unsurprising Gabe was low.

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Those top 6 guys are all great additions. Best bet is Mooney in terms of value. 
 

Evans will get a sizable deal as he’s still as stud. 
Samuel has talent and has proven so, someone might splash the cash. 
Ridley did great in a prove it year after his suspension, will cash in; probably a return to JAC. 

Pittman and Bourne are interesting and probably sign long term deals somewhere. 
 

Mooney? Who knows. He might skate by in FA and settle or someone might give him the deal he wants. Think he’s the most budget friendly guy we could acquire out of that top group. 
 

Maybe Josh Reynolds but does he have that consistent speed or verticality on the outside that we lack? No. 
 

Tyler Boyd? Too pricey. 
 

The rest no thank you unless you bring Chark in on a vet minimum. 

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5 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

He use to be near the top. He fell.

 

Diggs went from 7th open score to 21st. This is WR/TE. Not too bad of a drop, but a significant drop.

 

Diggs went from 4th overall to 67th. 😬

 

https://espnanalytics.com/rtm/

Dang. He had to have been hurt. We all saw it. The drop off was there, but that's a big difference overall. 

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I'm surprised to see, according to one site, Samuel's projected numbers so low:

 

Projected Contract: 2 years, $15.0 million, $7.5 APY, $9.0M GTD

 

I have no idea if it's accurate but it just may be affordable by the Bills if it's backloaded.

 

https://atozsports.com/washington/curtis-samuel-contract-projection-free-agency/#gid=ci02d5421cf000278d&pid=usatsi_22129331

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8 minutes ago, Sweats said:

I'm still shaking my head that Davis is ahead of Higgins.

 

#likewtfconfused

same

3 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said:

I'm surprised to see, according to one site, Samuel's projected numbers so low:

 

Projected Contract: 2 years, $15.0 million, $7.5 APY, $9.0M GTD

 

I have no idea if it's accurate but it just may be affordable by the Bills if it's backloaded.

 

https://atozsports.com/washington/curtis-samuel-contract-projection-free-agency/#gid=ci02d5421cf000278d&pid=usatsi_22129331

Spotrac has it at $11.5 M AAV, but again that's not impossible to swing if backloaded to 2026

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46 minutes ago, BBFL said:

Those top 6 guys are all great additions. Best bet is Mooney in terms of value. 
 

Evans will get a sizable deal as he’s still as stud. 
Samuel has talent and has proven so, someone might splash the cash. 
Ridley did great in a prove it year after his suspension, will cash in; probably a return to JAC. 

Pittman and Bourne are interesting and probably sign long term deals somewhere. 
 

Mooney? Who knows. He might skate by in FA and settle or someone might give him the deal he wants. Think he’s the most budget friendly guy we could acquire out of that top group. 
 

Maybe Josh Reynolds but does he have that consistent speed or verticality on the outside that we lack? No. 
 

Tyler Boyd? Too pricey. 
 

The rest no thank you unless you bring Chark in on a vet minimum. 

I think Mooney makes the most sense on a reasonable deal under 10M/ yr. He's had garbage qb-ing over his time in Chicago.  Josh would explode his numbers. But 10M or more forget it. Just draft guys.

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33 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

selena s GIF



I always found it funny that the sister could transform into any animal form, but the brother could only change into different forms of water.

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1 hour ago, FireChans said:

To my eye, I didn’t see more than normal amounts of man coverage in 2023. 

 

We faced the most man coverage out of every offense in the league. I don't have the tweet handy but Cover 1 posted it a couple weeks back. It was like 35% of the time or something like that. Against man-heavy teams like the Chiefs it was a real problem.

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1 hour ago, Process said:

Mooney or Samuel plus a first or 2nd round WR would be great additions. 

 

Though not sure we can afford those guys. 

 

Bourne +1st round pick would also be great and perhaps more realistic. 

I loved Bourne as an in season trade candidate but now he's coming off an ACL tear so he's not on my short list. I will bang the drum though for Noah Brown who has similar size and skill set that Gabe does and likely a lot cheaper. Toss in he showed last year in Texas he could be a pseudo WR1 when others around him got hurt. I also like the idea taking a WR early yet more into liking taking one after round 1 as feel we need a quality DE and to me harder to find that after round 1 than a WR. I mentioned Brown and Ja'Lynn Polk in Round 2 and then taking a guy like Cornelius Johnson in Round 5. 

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10 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

I loved Bourne as an in season trade candidate but now he's coming off an ACL tear so he's not on my short list. I will bang the drum though for Noah Brown who has similar size and skill set that Gabe does and likely a lot cheaper. Toss in he showed last year in Texas he could be a pseudo WR1 when others around him got hurt. I also like the idea taking a WR early yet more into liking taking one after round 1 as feel we need a quality DE and to me harder to find that after round 1 than a WR. I mentioned Brown and Ja'Lynn Polk in Round 2 and then taking a guy like Cornelius Johnson in Round 5. 

Eh even off an ACL I like him as a cheap #4/5 with a history of production. Def not a  starter. 

 

That's assuming they think he'll be ready to start the season. That's s big question mark. If not than forget it. 

 

Brown is a good option as well. 

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2 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

He use to be near the top. He fell.

 

Diggs went from 7th open score to 21st. This is WR/TE. Not too bad of a drop, but a significant drop.

 

Diggs went from 4th overall to 67th. 😬

 

https://espnanalytics.com/rtm/

those are different analytic processes. pff was one version and espn was something else. based on targets or something i forgot.

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2 hours ago, The Firebaugh Kid said:

Samuel is my #1 target, this further supports my steadfast belief that he's a massive upgrade to #13. 


he’s 27.  5’11 which is taller than I expected to see and ran a 4.3  40.

 

His floor is an instant upgrade from Sherfield 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Sherfield? He’d be our Gabe Davis replacement.


would prefer him to be WR3

 

Diggs

Rookie

Samuel

Shakir (mostly slot)

Rookie

Shorter

 

it looks like he did have an impressive season under Brady with 851 receiving and 200 rushing

Edited by Warriorspikes51
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16 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:


would prefer him to be WR3

 

Diggs

Rookie

Samuel

Shakir (mostly slot)

Rookie

Shorter

 

it looks like he did have an impressive season under Brady with 851 receiving and 200 rushing

60% o Samuel's snaps that year were in the slot, if we sign him we'd have to kick Shakir outside, not sure that's the best way to use him since he excelled in slot last year. 

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14 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:


would prefer him to be WR3

 

Diggs

Rookie

Samuel

Shakir (mostly slot)

Rookie

Shorter

 

it looks like he did have an impressive season under Brady with 851 receiving and 200 rushing

Yeah. That would be a nice group, especially with Kincaid and Cook.

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1 minute ago, The Jokeman said:

60% o Samuel's snaps that year were in the slot, if we sign him we'd have to kick Shakir outside, not sure that's the best way to use him since he excelled in slot last year. 

I think they’d be interchangeable. He and Shakir would be similar roles though. 
 

Bills might be looking for straight field stretchers. I wouldn’t be shocked if they draft 2 sprinters. Samuel is more of a horizontal WR. Get the ball in his hands.

 

I don’t really know enough about Brady. As OC in Buffalo he was very much horizontal with his play calling. A lot of WR screens. Samuel fits that more than even Diggs does. So does Shakir.

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If you want to find the guys that have the greatest value in impacting a playoff game, just look at the data for December onwards.

 

After our last two playoff exits, I'm more convinced that when evaluating free agents and college players, you eliminate the first 1-2 months of play and evaluate their performance once they are tired and injured.

 

You don't want to spend money on the September stats machines.  

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