2024 WR Draft Class

[LABILLBACKER]

On 2/8/2024 at 12:17 PM, GASabresIUFan said:

I looked at the WR stat this past season and 13 receivers finished in the top 25 in Catches, Yards, and 20+ plays.  Of the 13, 7 were drafted in the 1st rd and 6 were drafted in round 2-5.  3 of the top 4, Hill, St. Brown, and Nacua were drafted in the 4th or 5th round.  Of the 7 1st rd players, Lamb, DJ Moore, Aiyuk, Evans, Chase, Olave, and DeVonta Smith, 3 were top 10 picks, 2 from picks 11-20, and 2 in the last 3rd. 

 

There is also no size requirement, except being at least 6 feet tall.  Hill and Moore were the only players under 6 feet.  Of the remaining 11, 5 were 6-2 or taller.  Evans was the tallest and heaviest at 6'5 231.  DeVonta Smith was the lightest at 170, followed by Olave at 187 and Hill at 191.  The other 10 were 200 lbs or greater.

 

The point of this analysis is that the Bills will probably get an impact WR in the first, but there is also a really good chance that the WR drafted later in the draft could emerge as the better player of the two.

I'm fine with that. Just don't give up a ton of trade capital to trade up in the 1st. They'll be a very good wr fall to us @ 28. Get a 1T and FS in the 2nd & 3rd and turn around and grab another quality wr in the 4th.

[BillsFanForever19]

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I'm fine with that. Just don't give up a ton of trade capital to trade up in the 1st. They'll be a very good wr fall to us @ 28. Get a 1T and FS in the 2nd & 3rd and turn around and grab another quality wr in the 4th.

 

Amen.

 

Beane isn't going to do a massive trade up. Though given both his past with moving up a few spots for the guy he wants, the amount of picks we have, and with missing out last season after a run of FOUR WR's going in a row - I almost expect him to move up 2-3 picks to make sure he gets the guy he loves.

 

But with Diggs (who isn't going anywhere, no matter how hard some people confusingly want to try to move on from him right now), Shakir, and Kincaid in house already, the addition of a 1st Round Pick, the amount of holes we have to fill, and the depth at WR in this Draft - I also see Round 4 as the soonest we should double dip our toes back into the water at WR.

 

Get your #2, future #1 WR in Round 1. Get young starters at DL and S in Rounds 2 and 3. Don't spend a Day 2 pick on a WR who won't be better than 5th in targets behind Diggs, Round 1, Shakir, and Kincaid this season. Especially when we need Starters at 3, possibly 4 spots on Defense. And like I said, given the depth of the class, a Round 4 WR could still turn out to be very good.

Edited February 10 by BillsFanForever19

[LABILLBACKER]

24 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Amen.

 

Beane isn't going to do a massive trade up. Though given both his past with moving up a few spots for the guy he wants, the amount of picks we have, and with missing out last season after a run of FOUR WR's going in a row - I almost expect him to move up 2-3 picks to make sure he gets the guy he loves.

 

But with Diggs (who isn't going anywhere, no matter how hard some people confusingly want to try to move him from right now), Shakir, and Kincaid in house already, the addition of a 1st Round Pick, the amount of holes we have to fill, and the depth at WR in this Draft - I also see Round 4 as the soonest we should double dip our toes back into the water at WR.

 

Get your #2, future #1 WR in Round 1. Get young starters at DL and S in Rounds 2 and 3. Don't spend a Day 2 pick on a WR who won't be better than 5th in targets behind Diggs, Round 1, Shakir, and Kincaid this season. Especially when we need Starters at 3, possibly 4 spots on Defense. And like I said, given the depth of the class, a Round 4 WR could still turn out to be very good.

I'm also optimistic that Shorter & Hamler make the team. The 1st round wr replaces Gabe and the 4th rounder replaces Sherfield, Harty.  Diggs will play next season but beyond that who knows? 

[mrags]

3 hours ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

Mcd has shown us in these 7 yrs that's he's not gonna change much. He loves his Dline rotation and he loves having old vets on the team especially at running back he loves having a old man in the bk field from Tolbert to Gore to Murray. I'm not a big fan of his rotations myself most teams have a top 4 that plays most of the game . 

 

When it comes to Jenkins Jr he can add some weight maybe not 20 lbs but 10 for sure that would put him at 315lbs and it's not just the weight that matters it's adding strength. He's got power already just needs some work with technique and anchoring. I think the kid can become a flat out beast a pro bowl type player. 

I agree with you thoughts except the outlook on Jenkins. I just don’t see it. I watched a scouting video on him that showed he was basically taken out of most plays. I just don’t see the power. I also don’t see him being able to gain much more weight on his frame. He just looks like a finished product to me and I don’t think there’s much upside to him. Maybe I’m wrong and if we draft him, I hope I’m wrong. I would rather just get a guy that’s 315+ already and plug and play for run support right off the bat instead of hoping the guy can mold into something we are looking for. Think Jenkins is in more of the pass rush role. I see him losing 10lbs and trying his best to be a solid 3T or 5T

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

I'm not a big fan of his rotations myself most teams have a top 4 that plays most of the game . 

 

 

Not true. I cunched the numbers the other day. Of the top teams KC have 3 who play 65%+ but nobody at 70% and nobody else above about 40%. They are the closest to a consistent 4 that plays most of the game. 

 

The Bills had Ed at 70% and Greg at 60% then a chunk of guys 40-55%. That is in line with the likes of the 9ers, the Eagles, the Ravens, the Lions (nobody above 55% except Hutch who plays 90!!) and the Cowboys. 

 

And the league is trending to more rotation not less - with the exception of a handful of the very top individuals (Hutch, TJ, Crosby etc) and we don't have one of those. I think when McDermott arrived 7 years ago he was probably ahead of the curve on rotating DL but the league has caught up now and almost everyone rushes in waves rotating guys in and out. 

[Dr. Who]

44 minutes ago, mrags said:

I agree with you thoughts except the outlook on Jenkins. I just don’t see it. I watched a scouting video on him that showed he was basically taken out of most plays. I just don’t see the power. I also don’t see him being able to gain much more weight on his frame. He just looks like a finished product to me and I don’t think there’s much upside to him. Maybe I’m wrong and if we draft him, I hope I’m wrong. I would rather just get a guy that’s 315+ already and plug and play for run support right off the bat instead of hoping the guy can mold into something we are looking for. Think Jenkins is in more of the pass rush role. I see him losing 10lbs and trying his best to be a solid 3T or 5T

Who are your 1T targets? If Sweat comes within range in the 2nd, I can even see them moving up to get him.

I have no idea if they can play 1T, but I like Jordan Jefferson as a mid-round pick, or maybe Jowon Briggs late.

@GunnerBill may have some suggestions.

[GunnerBill]

24 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Who are your 1T targets? If Sweat comes within range in the 2nd, I can even see them moving up to get him.

I have no idea if they can play 1T, but I like Jordan Jefferson as a mid-round pick, or maybe Jowon Briggs late.

@GunnerBill may have some suggestions.

 

I haven't got deep into the DTs yet to know who I like later. Of the possible early guys - love Newton. Top 10 player in this class for me. Think Murphy is a borderline first round type. Jenkins I like round 2 but if you are a 4-3 team I'd move him down almost a full round and Sweat is a late 2nd grade wise but I can imagine him going higher. He is the first 1T type but he has more pass rush potential than he gets credit for.

[DJB]

 

Nabers is still my WR1 . I know it’s controversial but he’s explosive and a difference maker on all levels 

[Dr. Who]

36 minutes ago, DJB said:

 

Nabers is still my WR1 . I know it’s controversial but he’s explosive and a difference maker on all levels 

I would love to get him, but the cost would be prohibitive, and you have to find a team willing to trade down from a top ten pick.

[EmotionallyUnstable]

6 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I'm fine with that. Just don't give up a ton of trade capital to trade up in the 1st. They'll be a very good wr fall to us @ 28. Get a 1T and FS in the 2nd & 3rd and turn around and grab another quality wr in the 4th.

I was on this train of thought but wonder if there is room, or if necessary, to bring in 2 rooks this year :
 

Diggs

Rookie (RD1)

Shakir

Harty

Shorter

Rookie (RD4?)

 

In all likelihood a round 4 Wr will not see the field all that much in their rookie year. In addition, would it be a player at this point in the draft coming in with minimal experience that would offer more than Shorter? 
 

I think those mid round picks will be better spent on retooling the DL, secondary or OL. These are picks that could be guys that play significant snaps to maximize their rookie deals.

 

We must keep the talent young and constant at WR, and I think taking one yearly moving forward early in the draft is a must…I just want them playing when you take them. 
 

I think bringing in a premier talent this year will be sufficient for now given the state of the offensive skill position support (Kincaid, Knox, Cook, etc) on top of the WRs we currently have (Diggs, Rook, Shakir). Adding a vet this year to the WR room might be more beneficial, having some experience in depth, and might fill the Sherfield Special teams hole. 

 

Then the next draft in 2025, we again look at WR early, and hopefully have struck gold on WR at 28 the year prior, and are poised to keep the talent young and flowing in a world without Diggs, or with him in a supportive role.

WRs in 2025

 

Rookie from ‘24 (pick 28?)

Diggs WR2

Shakir (contract year)

Rookie from ‘25

Shorter

Vet

 

 

Edited February 10 by EmotionallyUnstable

[DJB]

52 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I would love to get him, but the cost would be prohibitive, and you have to find a team willing to trade down from a top ten pick.

Agreed. Hes my guy and I can see him going top 5

 

This is as similar to a Julio / AJ Green type situation. Two elite WR’s just depends on what flavour you’d like 

Edited February 10 by DJB

[Green Lightning]

6 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Amen.

 

Beane isn't going to do a massive trade up. Though given both his past with moving up a few spots for the guy he wants, the amount of picks we have, and with missing out last season after a run of FOUR WR's going in a row - I almost expect him to move up 2-3 picks to make sure he gets the guy he loves.

 

But with Diggs (who isn't going anywhere, no matter how hard some people confusingly want to try to move on from him right now), Shakir, and Kincaid in house already, the addition of a 1st Round Pick, the amount of holes we have to fill, and the depth at WR in this Draft - I also see Round 4 as the soonest we should double dip our toes back into the water at WR.

 

Get your #2, future #1 WR in Round 1. Get young starters at DL and S in Rounds 2 and 3. Don't spend a Day 2 pick on a WR who won't be better than 5th in targets behind Diggs, Round 1, Shakir, and Kincaid this season. Especially when we need Starters at 3, possibly 4 spots on Defense. And like I said, given the depth of the class, a Round 4 WR could still turn out to be very good.

100% agree. While there's depth in WRs, potential WR1, X tall, fast, field stretchers will be gone by day 2.  

[Prospector]

2 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

Who are your 1T targets? If Sweat comes within range in the 2nd, I can even see them moving up to get him.

I have no idea if they can play 1T, but I like Jordan Jefferson as a mid-round pick, or maybe Jowon Briggs late.

@GunnerBill may have some suggestions.

That Fabian dude from FSU, Evan Anderson is an interesting small school prospect, and Rogers from A&M all seem to have size and strength

[mrags]

2 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

Who are your 1T targets? If Sweat comes within range in the 2nd, I can even see them moving up to get him.

I have no idea if they can play 1T, but I like Jordan Jefferson as a mid-round pick, or maybe Jowon Briggs late.

@GunnerBill may have some suggestions.

I admittedly don’t know much about any of them. I don’t watch college ball so I’m limited to scouting reports and highlight vids mostly. Every year around this time I start doing mock drafts out of boredom and when guys I’m aware of are taken I start watching vids of the guys still left on the board in those spots. I haven’t gotten to many DTs. But of the ones I’ve seen I love Sweat. Guy is a beast. Love his size and power. Has it in him to be the best DL in the draft if things go right for him. I probably would take him as 28 because of the need at WR. I’d hope to get him in the 2nd rd. Either with a trade back to pick up extra picks, or a trade up into the 2nd if he falls a little bit more than expected. But I don’t see that happening after his week at the senior bowl. 
 

after him, of the guys that I’ve watched, I like McKinley Jackson in the 3rd Rd or later, and also like Jordan Jefferson in the mid rounds also. Also like Braden Fiske and Masson Smith. I’ve also seen a little of Gabe Hall and Justin Rogers. Want to look at them more. I dont think Hall is that space eater that we need but haven’t seen enough of him. 
 

overall the only guy I’d take at RD 2 would be Sweat and then Jackson at 3. After that they are rd 4 or after. Probably highest on Jefferson after that but I think he might have personality issues. I don’t have a problem with it that much considering the position he plays and we need nasty. But I doubt McDermott dips his foot in that pool. 

[Low Positive]

Remember, at least one of the top guys will be a bust and someone taken in the 4-6 round will end up being better than all but 2 or 3 of these “can’t-miss” WRs in this “deep” class. At least one of these college superstars will turn out to not be able to separate or make catches in tight windows and another one will end up having a really bad attitude and/or work ethic. For every Justin Jefferson there is a Jalen Reagor and a Henry Ruggs. It’s just the way it goes.

[GunnerBill]

40 minutes ago, mrags said:

I admittedly don’t know much about any of them. I don’t watch college ball so I’m limited to scouting reports and highlight vids mostly. Every year around this time I start doing mock drafts out of boredom and when guys I’m aware of are taken I start watching vids of the guys still left on the board in those spots. I haven’t gotten to many DTs. But of the ones I’ve seen I love Sweat. Guy is a beast. Love his size and power. Has it in him to be the best DL in the draft if things go right for him. I probably would take him as 28 because of the need at WR. I’d hope to get him in the 2nd rd. Either with a trade back to pick up extra picks, or a trade up into the 2nd if he falls a little bit more than expected. But I don’t see that happening after his week at the senior bowl. 
 

after him, of the guys that I’ve watched, I like McKinley Jackson in the 3rd Rd or later, and also like Jordan Jefferson in the mid rounds also. Also like Braden Fiske and Masson Smith. I’ve also seen a little of Gabe Hall and Justin Rogers. Want to look at them more. I dont think Hall is that space eater that we need but haven’t seen enough of him. 
 

overall the only guy I’d take at RD 2 would be Sweat and then Jackson at 3. After that they are rd 4 or after. Probably highest on Jefferson after that but I think he might have personality issues. I don’t have a problem with it that much considering the position he plays and we need nasty. But I doubt McDermott dips his foot in that pool. 

 

Fiske was excellent at the Senior Bowl but still need to dig into his tape.

[GASabresIUFan]

1 hour ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Harty

I don’t think he’ll be back next season.  Too much cap benefit to moving on especially if they retain Hines after a contract restructure.

 

I do believe Beane will draft a 2nd WR in the 5th (we have 2 5th rd picks), but if they like Shorter and release Harty maybe they sign a cheap vet instead. 

[Solomon Grundy]

On 2/7/2024 at 8:05 PM, EmotionallyUnstable said:

I think I have Stockholm syndrome. 
 

The more I read about the WRs that likely will be available at 28, the more I am thinking they should take the best defensive lineman available. 
 

2nd round WR in 2024

1sr round WR in 2025

 

Tell me I’m sick. This is what happens after years of abuse. 

Okay, I'll tell you. You're sick!! 

[Richard Noggin]

13 hours ago, DJB said:

 

Nabers is still my WR1 . I know it’s controversial but he’s explosive and a difference maker on all levels 

 

Too bad we can't bring him home to The City of Good Nabers

[NewEra]

Troy Franklin is a chiefs fan!  😂 😢 

[JaCrispy]

25 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Troy Franklin is a chiefs fan!  😂 😢 

Good…Then I’m sure he’ll be happy to lose to them every year, so that they can keep winning superbowls…

 

I kid, I kid…😉

[Turk71]

33 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Troy Franklin is a chiefs fan!  😂 😢 

Grew up one evidently, hopefully about to become a Bills fan.

[BADOLBILZ]

On 2/8/2024 at 3:17 PM, GASabresIUFan said:

The point of this analysis is that the Bills will probably get an impact WR in the first, but there is also a really good chance that the WR drafted later in the draft could emerge as the better player of the two.

 

 

BUT.........that analysis goes about the same for all of the truly "elite" positions outside of QB.

 

Pass rusher, LT and WR are traditionally among the lowest(if not the 3 lowest) "Pro Bowl" hit rate positions with first round picks.

 

Generally 70% of pro bowlers at those positions come from picks after round 1...........last I saw over 40% of first round safeties turn into pro bowlers which was the highest.

 

Does that mean that a team should just pick safeties/guards and centers early because those are the highest "pro bowl" level player hit rates?  

 

Absolutely not.

 

Because those positions aren't nearly as important wrt winning championships.  

 

Every offseason fans forget that the purpose of the early rounds is to find the future cornerstones of your franchise at premium positions..........those positions where you don't often see high quality players in their prime change teams in free agency.    Instead they focus on filling holes with their mock drafts.  

 

You gotta' draft and develop those elite position players......and while the "big hit" rate isn't as high as some lesser positions........it still beats the odds of finding those MUST HAVE players later.

 

Personally,  I'm not looking too hard at safeties and 1 techs in the first 2 rounds.   Those are "free agency" value positions and one's that I hope to draft and develop replacements for later.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 11 by BADOLBILZ

[GASabresIUFan]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

BUT.........that analysis goes about the same for all of the truly "elite" positions outside of QB.

 

Pass rusher, LT and WR are traditionally among the lowest(if not the 3 lowest) "Pro Bowl" hit rate positions with first round picks.

 

Generally 70% of pro bowlers at those positions come from picks after round 1...........last I saw over 40% of first round safeties turn into pro bowlers which was the highest.

 

Does that mean that a team should just pick safeties/guards and centers early because those are the highest "pro bowl" level player hit rates?  

 

Absolutely not.

 

Because those positions aren't nearly as important wrt winning championships.  

 

Every offseason fans forget that the purpose of the early rounds is to find the future cornerstones of your franchise at premium positions..........those positions where you don't often see high quality players in their prime change teams in free agency.    Instead they focus on filling holes with their mock drafts.  

 

You gotta' draft and develop those elite position players......and while the "big hit" rate isn't as high as some lesser positions........it still beats the odds of finding those MUST HAVE players later.

 

Personally,  I'm not looking too hard at safeties and 1 techs in the first 2 rounds.   Those are "free agency" value positions and one's that I hope to draft and develop replacements for later.

What does this have anything to do with my post?  I was analyzing top WRs and saw that it was half and half between 1st rd players and non-first rd players.  Given where the Bills draft and the type of player available at 28, the Bills seem destined to land a WR at that position.  After all, this is a WR thread. 

 

 If you want to read my thoughts on the draft at large, I posted a look at our most critical needs that might be filled in the draft.  I concluded that I expected to try to get a starting WR in the draft, then get rotational players early at DT and Edge followed by an eventual starter at S, but for next season I expected the starting S to come from free agency.  I then expect, because 3/5 of the Oline are on 1 year deals, for the Bills in add a center and OT in the middle rounds of the draft.  In the later rounds, I expect another DT, and depth players at TE, CB, LB and possible at RB depending on how the draft falls.

[BillsFanForever19]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFan said:

I then expect, because 3/5 of the Oline are on 1 year deals, for the Bills in add a center and OT in the middle rounds of the draft. 

 

This is a good point and further points to the ridiculousness of going WR in 2 or all 3 of the first picks - like many are doing here.

 

My focus has been on securing a starting WR in Round 1 and addressing the starting and rotational holes we have elsewhere this season.

 

But it goes deeper than just this year. As you pointed out, past this season - we only have Connor McGovern and O'Cyrus Torrence under contract.

 

While i'd expect an extension for Dion Dawkins, we'll need a new Center and while Spencer Brown was better last season, I'm not sure I'm ready to sign him up for an extension immediately. And behind Dawkins and Brown, we just have Ryan Van Demark, Tommy Doyle (who was on IR all last season and will be a FA himself next year).

 

So long story short, on top of starting holes at DE, DT (and all rotating DT's as Oliver is the only one under contract), S (possibly two if we also move on from Poyer) - we also need to think about the O-Line for this season and especially next.

 

We cannot afford to double down on WR in the first two Rounds and probably not even in Round 3. If we go WR Round 1 as expected, Round 4 should be the earliest we think of a double dip.

 

3 hours ago, Turk71 said:

Grew up one evidently, hopefully about to become a Bills fan.

 

And there's photos of Josh and his dad decked out in Patriots jerseys at a Pats game. 

 

That all goes out the window when it becomes your job.

Edited February 11 by BillsFanForever19

[Kirby Jackson]

A hypothetical “would ya”: pick 4 (assuming MHJ) is on the board for Elam, Bernard, pick 28, pick 60, 2025 1st  and 2025 3rd

Obviously that’s a hefty price but I’m trying to come up with something that would be considered. I saw something like this on twitter. At first I was like, “that’s too much” but after thinking about it that probably makes the Bills the team to beat. You’d re-sign Dodson to play next to Milano. I think that I would make that deal. 

 

Edited February 11 by Kirby Jackson

[BillsFanForever19]

21 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

A hypothetical “would ya”: pick 4 (assuming MHJ) is on the board for Elam, Bernard, pick 28, pick 60, 2025 1st  and 2025 3rd

Obviously that’s a hefty price but I’m trying to come up with something that would be considered. I saw something like this on twitter. At first I was like, “that’s too much” but after thinking about it that probably makes the Bills the team to beat. You’d re-sign Dodson to play next to Milano. I think that I would make that deal. 

 

So 2 1st's, a 2nd this year, a 3rd next year, Terrel Bernard, and Kaiir Elam for Marvin Harrison Jr? Yeah, no, I'm good. 

 

As much as I'd love to have him, we're 52m over the cap. We have to find a starting WR. We also have to find (as I said above) a starting DE, a starting DT (and 3 more for rotation), a starting Safety (possibly 2) - plus other depth for this year.

 

Dodson played OLB this year. He can play MLB, but the drop off from what Bernard was giving us would be massive. And Bernard could develop into even better than he was this year.

 

Next year, 3/5 of our starting OL are FA's. Diggs might be out the door following this season.

 

This scenario would have us having to fill everything else this year with what little cap space we can come up with and no pick higher than Round 3. And then next year having only Rounds 2, 4, and onward - while downgrading MLB.

 

Absolutely cannot afford this in any way, shape, or form.

Edited February 11 by BillsFanForever19

[Kirby Jackson]

1 hour ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

This is a good point and further points to the ridiculousness of going WR in 2 or all 3 of the first picks - like many are doing here.

 

My focus has been on securing a starting WR in Round 1 and addressing the starting and rotational holes we have elsewhere this season.

 

But it goes deeper than just this year. As you pointed out, past this season - we only have Connor McGovern and O'Cyrus Torrence under contract.

 

While i'd expect an extension for Dion Dawkins, we'll need a new Center and while Spencer Brown was better last season, I'm not sure I'm ready to sign him up for an extension immediately. And behind Dawkins and Brown, we just have Ryan Van Demark, Tommy Doyle (who was on IR all last season and will be a FA himself next year).

 

So long story short, on top of starting holes at DE, DT (and all rotating DT's as Oliver is the only one under contract), S (possibly two if we also move on from Poyer) - we also need to think about the O-Line for this season and especially next.

 

We cannot afford to double down on WR in the first two Rounds and probably not even in Round 3. If we go WR Round 1 as expected, Round 4 should be the earliest we think of a double dip.

 

 

And there's photos of Josh and his dad decked out in Patriots jerseys at a Pats game. 

 

That all goes out the window when it becomes your job.

The Bills need to stop worrying about minor holes or future problems. They aren’t losing to KC because of OT depth. They need to start outgunning people. If they are going to win a Super Bowl it is because of Josh Allen and his weapons.
 

They aren’t built like Baltimore or SF. This isn't meant to be a balanced roster that would be a borderline playoff team with Kyle Allen. They’re more like the KC teams of the last 6 years. They go as Allen goes. Upgrading at WR is more important than the next 4 biggest needs combined. 
 

You re-sign Rapp, Shaq, Jones and Dodson. You can afford that. You fill out the rest of your roster/depth with the remainder of the draft. 

[Kirby Jackson]

12 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

So 2 1st's, a 2nd this year, a 3rd next year, Terrel Bernard, and Kaiir Elam for Marvin Harrison Jr? Yeah, no, I'm good. 

 

As much as I'd love to have him, we're 52m over the cap. We have to find a starting WR. We also have to find (as I said above) a starting DE, a starting DT (and 3 more for rotation), a starting Safety (possibly 2) - plus other depth for this year.

 

Dodson played OLB this year. He can play MLB, but the drop off from what Bernard was giving us is massive. And Bernard could develop into even better.

 

Next year, 3/5 of our starting OL are FA's. Diggs might be out the door following this season.

 

This scenario would have us having to fill everything else this year with what little cap space we can come up with and no pick higher than Round 3. And then next year having only Rounds 2, 4, and onward - while downgrading MLB.

 

Absolutely cannot afford this in any way, shape, or form.

That feels like about what the price would be. Of course Bernard is good and cheap, that’s why you’d have to give him up in the above scenario.
 

You’re worried about the middle and back of the roster as well as 2025. They will have enough cap space to bring back Dodson, Jones, Shaq and Rapp. You’ll need to replace Epenesa, Settle, Floyd, Phillips and Ford with cheap vets (like Shaq) and late round picks for 2025.

 

Again, Ryan Van Demark as your swing OT isn’t why KC always beats you when it matters. You can’t stop them. Stop worrying about stopping them and start worrying about outgunning them. When you have a pitcher that throws 100 MPH you shouldn’t be focused on improving his curveball. Try to get that 100 MPH to 105 MPH. Do what you do best, better. Worry about your own strengths not trying to cover minor blemishes.

 

In this hypothetical:

 

QB - Allen

RB: Cook (Ty Johnson behind)

WR- Diggs

WR- MHJ

Slot - Shakir

TE- Kincaid

TE- Knox

LT - Dawkins

LG - McGovern

C- Morse

RG - Torrence

RT - Brown

 

DE - Rousseau

DE- Von 

DT - Oliver

DT - Jones

LB- Dodson

LB - Milano

CB - Douglas

CB - Benford

Slot - Taron

S - Poyer

S - Rapp

 

At some point you hopefully get Tre back as well. You try to bring Dane back as CB depth if you can make the numbers work. A lot of that will depend on a Diggs restructure. If you restructure Diggs you can certainly do it with the other moves I suggested. If not it’ll be tight (using the Greg Tompsett projected cap moves for next year). 

 

Edited February 11 by Kirby Jackson

[BillsFanForever19]

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The Bills need to stop worrying about minor holes or future problems. They aren’t losing to KC because of OT depth. They need to start outgunning people. If they are going to win a Super Bowl it is because of Josh Allen and his weapons.
 

They aren’t built like Baltimore or SF. This isn't meant to be a balanced roster that would be a borderline playoff team with Kyle Allen. They’re more like the KC teams of the last 6 years. They go as Allen goes. Upgrading at WR is more important than the next 4 biggest needs combined. 
 

You re-sign Rapp, Shaq, Jones and Dodson. You can afford that. You fill out the rest of your roster/depth with the remainder of the draft. 

 

And that's why you Draft one in Round 1. You pair him with Diggs, Shakir, and Kincaid. That's 4 solid to very solid weapons. Last year we only had 3 as Gabe was either a non-presence or injured for the majority of the year, so we're already upgraded there. And we'll add more there early on Day 3. Maybe even a FA late in the process that becomes available or overplayed their hand and has to settle for less, like we did with Floyd at DE (more on that later)

 

You're cool with Groot, Von, Shaq, and Jonathan as our DE's? It's not just Epenesa we're losing, but Leonard Floyd too. I like Shaq, but I need a little more insurance than that in the event that Von doesn't bounce back - and I'm more optimistic about that than most are. 

 

And as for the OL - I'm not talking about just this year. It's next year when we'll need to find a new Center and a new RT (or pay for Brown). As well as probably Stefon Diggs and Von Miller. And you're giving away our 1st and 3rd that year.

 

I'm all for adding pieces. Drafting 1 in the 1st and another later on. But this? This is the Sammy Watkins trade on crack. I love Harrison as a prospect. Looks like a sure thing. But Sammy was also considered the most sure thing at WR in a long time too. And what happened? Did we learn nothing?

 

The guy we'll get at 28 or with a minor trade up could end up to be just as good as Harrison, possibly even better. And you don't have to give up this metric sh-t ton of picks and a guy like Bernard to do it.

 

The difference between a prospect like Troy Franklin or a prospect like Marvin Harrison Jr. is not worth adding in 60, 2025's 1st, 2025's 3rd, Terrel Bernard, and Kaiir Elam to me. I get prioritizing weapons, but you can't deprioritize everything else that much.

Edited February 11 by BillsFanForever19

[Kirby Jackson]

12 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

And that's why you Draft one in Round 1. You pair him with Diggs, Shakir, and Kincaid. That's 4 solid to very solid weapons. Last year we only had 3 as Gabe was either a non-presense or injured, so we're already upgraded there. And we'll add more there early on Day 3. Maybe even a FA late in the process that becomes available or overplayed their hand and has to settle for less, like we did with Floyd at DE (more on that later)

 

You're cool with Groot, Von, Shaq, and Jonathan as our DE's? It's not just Epenesa we're losing, but Leonard Floyd too. I like Shaq, but I need a little more insurance than that in the event that Von doesn't bounce back - and I'm more optimistic about that than most are. 

 

I'm all for adding pieces. Drafting 1 in the 1st and another later on. But this? This is the Sammy Watkins trade on crack. I love Harrison as a prospect. Looks like a sure thing. But Sammy was also considered the most sure thing at WR in a long time. And what happened? Did we learn nothing?

 

The guy we'll get at 28 or with a minor trade up could be just as good, it not better than Harrison. And you don't have to give up this metric sh-t ton of picks and a guy like Bernard to do it. 

Of course I wish that my backup DEs were better than Shaq and Jonathan but you need to make sacrifices somewhere. It NEEDS to be the depth where those sacrifices are made. The Bills have focused WAY too much on overpaying for rotational players (Settle, Ford, Harty, Neal, etc).
 

I don’t think that you understand MHJ as a prospect. He is Calvin Johnson with better route running. He isn’t “likely to be good.” Again, this is HIGHLY unlikely but I’m not scared because of Watkins. MHJ might be the best, and safest, WR prospect ever. 
 

I’m not nearly as concerned with depth anymore. You’re going to still have 8 picks to fill out defensive depth. You’ll find at least 2 starters that develop out of that group (long term). Those 8 (or whatever makes the team) will fill the back of your roster. That’s where the sacrifices need to be made. The middle to back of your roster shouldn’t be filled with $4M cap hits for Harty and Settle or $3.3M for Neal. Those are the kind of guys that get replaced in rounds 3-7. Your top 5 priorities this year are WR opposite Diggs. That’s all that really moves the needle. 

Edited February 11 by Kirby Jackson

[BillsFanForever19]

18 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I don’t think that you understand MHJ as a prospect. He is Calvin Johnson with better route running. He isn’t “likely to be good.” Again, this is HIGHLY unlikely but I’m not scared because of Watkins. MHJ might be the best, and safest, WR prospect ever. 
 

I’m not nearly as concerned with depth anymore. You’re going to still have 8 picks to fill out defensive depth. You’ll find at least 2 starters that develop out of that group (long term). Those 8 (or whatever makes the team) will fill the back of your roster. That’s where the sacrifices need to be made. The middle to back of your roster shouldn’t be filled with $4M cap hits for Harty and Settle or $3.3M for Neal. Those are the kind of guys that get replaced in rounds 3-7. Your top 5 priorities this year are WR opposite Diggs. That’s all that really moves the needle. 

 

It's not just depth and it's not just about this year.

 

You'd have us unequivocally starting Von Miller at DE following how he looked last year, with our only insurance there being Shaq Lawson. Replacing Bernard with a reserve level MLB QB'ing the Defense, who hasn't played that role since 2022.

 

And then next year when we'll need to find another starting WR to replace Stefon Diggs, a starting DE to replace Von Miller, a starting Center to replace Mitch Morse, and a starting Right Tackle to replace Spencer Brown - we'll have 1 pick in the first 3 Rounds, a 2nd being our highest.

 

You've given away our 2nd this year, so any hope to find someone to develop into those roles would have to be found Round 3 and later, where it's much harder to hit. Not to mention needing a number of those picks to fill the many holes this year.

 

There's good reason as to why this is HIGHLY unlikely to happen. Any hope for a move up for Marvin Harrison Jr. went out the window when we went on that 5 game winning streak.

Edited February 11 by BillsFanForever19

[GunnerBill]

15 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Of course I wish that my backup DEs were better than Shaq and Jonathan but you need to make sacrifices somewhere. It NEEDS to be the depth where those sacrifices are made. The Bills have focused WAY too much on overpaying for rotational players (Settle, Ford, Harty, Neal, etc).
 

I don’t think that you understand MHJ as a prospect. He is Calvin Johnson with better route running. He isn’t “likely to be good.” Again, this is HIGHLY unlikely but I’m not scared because of Watkins. MHJ might be the best, and safest, WR prospect ever. 
 

I’m not nearly as concerned with depth anymore. You’re going to still have 8 picks to fill out defensive depth. You’ll find at least 2 starters that develop out of that group (long term). Those 8 (or whatever makes the team) will fill the back of your roster. That’s where the sacrifices need to be made. The middle to back of your roster shouldn’t be filled with $4M cap hits for Harty and Settle or $3.3M for Neal. Those are the kind of guys that get replaced in rounds 3-7. Your top 5 priorities this year are WR opposite Diggs. That’s all that really moves the needle. 

 

I agree with most of this. But as you know I have zero faith that Von can still play and indeed would cut him. So they will need to find a d end somewhere to start. 

 

But on having too many moderate cap hits on depth guys - I totally agree. The Bills have been the deepest team in the league. But they haven't had the best starting 21 around Josh because they haven't had enough stars there. 

 

On MHJ... I think the Calvin Johnson comparison and the "best WR prospect ever" stuff is over the top but he is a very safe bet to be a #1 receiver in the NFL.

 

On the trade up idea I just don't think it is realistic. I don't see a team in the top 6 that would want to get out. I think it is going to go QB, QB, QB, WR, WR, WR. Maybe the Chargers.... maybe. But they won't want to drop all the way to #28. The team that might be willing to get all the way out is Atlanta but I am pretty sure the top 3 receivers are gone by then. 

[Kirby Jackson]

3 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

It's not just depth and it's not just about this year.

 

You'd have us unequivocally starting Von Miller at DE following how he looked last year, with our only insurance there being Shaq Lawson. Replacing Bernard with a reserve level MLB QB'ing the Defense, who hasn't played that role since 2022.

 

And then next year when we'll need to find another starting WR to replace Stefon Diggs, another starting DE to replace Von Miller, a starting Center to replace Mitch Morse, and a starting Right Tackle to replace Spencer Brown - we'll have 1 pick in the first 3 Rounds, a 2nd being our highest.

 

There's good reason as to why this is HIGHLY unlikely to happen.

You’re unequivocally starting Von this year no matter what. You don’t have the assets to go elsewhere. You gambled on that when you signed him. You better hope that the flashes from late in the year become more regular. He needs to be a productive player regardless. That’s just what it is. 
 

Forget about 2025!! The window is now. You’re in Josh Allen’s prime. The focus is on 2025. You’re drafting the other 8 guys to hopefully grow into those roles. That isn’t your focus though. That just happens. Your focus is on giving Josh the best weapons in the game. 
 

If you do need to replace Diggs next year you’re doing so with a number 2. MHJ would obviously be your number 1. You can find a guy in FA or round 2 to do that. Von you’ll be replacing either way. That is happening regardless of what you do this offseason. The odds of Brown getting extended >>>>>>>>> Brown cut. I’m not worrying about that. The Bills clearly love him. You can draft a center in round 2 (if you don’t go WR or DE) or play Bates/McGovern there. That isnt a reason for concern now. All of these fears that you have for 2025 are minor. Some are there either way (ie replace Von) while others are in your head (long term RT). 

[Kirby Jackson]

11 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I agree with most of this. But as you know I have zero faith that Von can still play and indeed would cut him. So they will need to find a d end somewhere to start. 

 

But on having too many moderate cap hits on depth guys - I totally agree. The Bills have been the deepest team in the league. But they haven't had the best starting 21 around Josh because they haven't had enough stars there. 

 

On MHJ... I think the Calvin Johnson comparison and the "best WR prospect ever" stuff is over the top but he is a very safe bet to be a #1 receiver in the NFL.

 

On the trade up idea I just don't think it is realistic. I don't see a team in the top 6 that would want to get out. I think it is going to go QB, QB, QB, WR, WR, WR. Maybe the Chargers.... maybe. But they won't want to drop all the way to #28. The team that might be willing to get all the way out is Atlanta but I am pretty sure the top 3 receivers are gone by then. 

Fair, and I have little confidence in Von as well. I just don’t think that you have a choice. You can’t throw good money after bad. You hope to get a bargain FA or get lucky in the draft. 
 

Unfortunately, I agree on the ability to get up there. It just can’t happen. The only argument that you could make if you were Arizona is that you’re getting: a young CB that was a 1st round pick recently, a young borderline Pro Bowl MLB on a great deal, you’d still have a 1st (albeit later), you’d pick up a 2nd and a 1 and 3 next year. In theory, you could turn pick 4 into 6 starters. I wouldn’t offer that package for Nabers or Odunze. I like them both but that would only be for MHJ.
 

The hypothetical trade up was more my opinion on roster building. I’d rather address WR with an elite option than worry about anywhere else. It’s the point that you made about the best 21 around Josh. That is all that I care about. Give him the best weapons and that’s how the Bills take the next step. They will only win because of him. Help him

Edited February 11 by Kirby Jackson

[GunnerBill]

27 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Fair, and I have little confidence in Von as well. I just don’t think that you have a choice. You can’t throw good money after bad. You hope to get a bargain FA or get lucky in the draft. 
 

 

To me throwing good money after bad is paying Von near $7m on top of the $32m we are already on the hook for. That is why I'd cut him and try to get a vet with that space. That is your choice IMO. 

 

Id love to get an elite WR from the top of this class but I don't see a way to do it sadly. And there are good prospects lower down. So I am still confident we can upgrade the talent around Josh in this draft. It just won't be the sure thing that the top 3 are.

 

 

Edited February 11 by GunnerBill

[BillsFanForever19]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Forget about 2025!! The window is now. You’re in Josh Allen’s prime. 

 

I disagree with this. I believe when you have Josh Allen, you always have a chance. It took Peyton until 31 before he did it with the team that Drafted him. Josh Allen is 27 years old. It's not a matter of if we don't do it this year, it will never happen. And if we did this and it didn't happen this year, it'd be even harder then it needs to be to get back the following year.

 

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

If you do need to replace Diggs next year you’re doing so with a number 2. MHJ would obviously be your number 1. You can find a guy in FA or round 2 to do that. Von you’ll be replacing either way. That is happening regardless of what you do this offseason. The odds of Brown getting extended >>>>>>>>> Brown cut. I’m not worrying about that. The Bills clearly love him. You can draft a center in round 2 (if you don’t go WR or DE) or play Bates/McGovern there. That isnt a reason for concern now. All of these fears that you have for 2025 are minor. Some are there either way (ie replace Von) while others are in your head (long term RT). 

 

What does replacing Von next year either way have to do with the fact that you're giving away key assets to be able to do so?

 

As it is, you've mentioned using that 2nd (our first pick in your scenario) to replace both our Starting WR hole from Diggs and our Starting Center hole from Morse.

 

I see your point of view in a sense. And I agree that we need to worry less about other positions and worry more about the Offense. But you can do that without going completely overboard. Replacing starters with 2nd and 3rd Round picks instead of 1st's or big money FA's is focusing less at those places.

 

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Help him

 

Just having *A* X WR opposite Diggs with 1st Round talent would help him and be an upgrade over what we had when we lost to the Chiefs by 3. This is a good WR draft.

 

I mean, you're operating as if us getting Josh a Brian Thomas Jr. or a Troy Franklin is akin to doing him dirty.

 

The guy we get in Round 1 could be an Elite talent with Josh. Marvin Harrison Jr. could have a catastrophic injury right out of the gate. The best WR in the Draft last season was drafted in round 5. You just never know. 

 

Ultimately, this may be how you feel things should go. But Beane has said time and again that he will not put the team in a position where they aren't competitive every season. He's not going to go all in on one year and say to hell with next year.

 

Also, as @GunnerBill has said, I don't think Arizona would even take the trade anyways. 

Edited February 11 by BillsFanForever19

[NewEra]

6 hours ago, Turk71 said:

Grew up one evidently, hopefully about to become a Bills fan.

Yeah, deanthony thomas was his favorite player, so they became his team when they drafted that bum 

[DJB]

Franklin or Brian Thomas are the two guys in our range I like the most .

 

Really

hoping for one of them

[Kirby Jackson]

1 hour ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

I disagree with this. I believe when you have Josh Allen, you always have a chance. It took Peyton until 31 before he did it with the team that Drafted him. Josh Allen is 27 years old. It's not a matter of if we don't do it this year, it will never happen. And if we did this and it didn't happen this year, it'd be even harder then it needs to be to get back the following year.

 

 

What does replacing Von next year either way have to do with the fact that you're giving away key assets to be able to do so?

 

As it is, you've mentioned using that 2nd (our first pick in your scenario) to replace both our Starting WR hole from Diggs and our Starting Center hole from Morse.

 

I see your point of view in a sense. And I agree that we need to worry less about other positions and worry more about the Offense. But you can do that without going completely overboard. Replacing starters with 2nd and 3rd Round picks instead of 1st's or big money FA's is focusing less at those places.

 

 

Just having *A* X WR opposite Diggs with 1st Round talent would help him and be an upgrade over what we had when we lost to the Chiefs by 3. This is a good WR draft.

 

I mean, you're operating as if us getting Josh a Brian Thomas Jr. or a Troy Franklin is akin to doing him dirty.

 

The guy we get in Round 1 could be an Elite talent with Josh. Marvin Harrison Jr. could have a catastrophic injury right out of the gate. The best WR in the Draft last season was drafted in round 5. You just never know. 

 

Ultimately, this may be how you feel things should go. But Beane has said time and again that he will not put the team in a position where they aren't competitive every season. He's not going to go all in on one year and say to hell with next year.

 

Also, as @GunnerBill has said, I don't think Arizona would even take the trade anyways. 

In terms of the 2025 2nd remaining in the hypothetical, you could use that for WR OR DE. Obviously it wouldn’t be used twice. 
 

To be clear, I think that the trade is like .0001%. It was more about my philosophy on how to fill out the roster. I think that they should absolutely invest 2 of the top 3 picks on WR this year. As you said, if Diggs goes after this year you need to replace him too. This draft is really deep at WR so the value at 60 & 99 this year is almost certainly greater than it will be next year. I’d be good with something like Thomas/Franklin & Corley/Wilson.
 

For some reason I feel that the Bills may roll the dice on Xavier Legette. Beane hasn’t been scared off by high ceiling/low floor prospects in the 1st (although maybe that philosophy has changed post Elam). 
 

In terms of 2025, you can’t focus on it now. You are thin in cap space. You’ll be in a much better position in 2025 in terms of cap space. If you draft a guy or 2 in the 5th that hit and can be starters, great. Maybe Morse’s replacement is one? If not, you can worry about that in 2025.
 

That was my point. The window will still be open in 2025 but you’ll have more $ to work with then. They can’t worry about finding the 2025 replacement for a guy that will be on the roster in 2024. Now, if you want to cut Von as Gunner suggested, you’d have to get a pass rushing edge now (I don’t see any way that they eat that this year even as a post June 1). Otherwise, your focus this year is on ensuring that you get a bite at the apple in 2024.