BigDingus Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 We all know turnovers are a huge issue with this team, but last night made it even more apparent. I've seen a lot of people questioning Brady's playcalling or Josh needing to pass more, but the reality is turnovers are killing us the most. I went back through every game this year, and the big picture becomes a lot more clear. Here are the results: Won Turnover Battle: *WIN vs Raiders (38-10): Turnovers 0 vs 3 (BLOWOUT) *WIN vs Commies (37-3): Turnovers 1 vs 5 (BLOWOUT) *WIN vs Dolphins (48-20): Turnovers 0 vs 2 (BLOWOUT) *WIN vs NJ Jets (32-6): Turnovers 1 vs 4 (BLOWOUT) *LOSS vs Eagles (34-37): Turnovers 1 vs 2 *WIN vs Chiefs (20-17): Turnovers 1 vs 2 *WIN vs Cowboys (31-10): Turnovers 0 vs 1 (BLOWOUT) 1) First thing you notice is we're 6-1 when we have a positive turnover differential 2) 4 of the 5 wins were blowouts 3) 6 of the 7 games the Bills put up 30+ points, averaging 34.3 PPG (opponents averaging 14.7 ppg) Lost/Tied Turnover Battle: *LOSS vs NJ Jets (16-22): Turnovers 4 vs 1 ("Bad" Team) *LOSS vs Jaguars (20-25) Turnovers 2 vs 2 *WIN vs NJ Giants (14-9): Turnovers 2 vs 0 ("Bad" Team) *LOSS vs Patriots (25-29): Turnovers 2 vs 1 ("Bad" Team) *WIN vs Bucaneers (24-18): Turnovers 1 vs 0 *LOSS vs Bengals (18-24) Turnovers 2 vs 0 *LOSS vs Broncos (22-24) Turnovers 4 vs 1 *WIN vs Chargers (24-22) Turnovers 3 vs 0 ("Bad" Team) 1) Surprising nobody, we're 3-5 when we have a negative turnover differential 2) The 3 wins are against "bad" or mediocre teams, just barely escaping with a 1 score victory 3) The Bills average 20.1 PPG in these games (opponents average 21.6 PPG) 4) They're 1-5 if an opponent tops 20 points (Last night was the exception) Final Thoughts: 1) The Bills average 14 more PPG when they win the turnover battle because those drives end in POINTS. 2) Our defense isn't giving up an additional 7 PPG because they just suck, but because they have to go right back out onto the field & defend additional drives! 3) We struggle against "Bad-Average" teams because we keep giving them the damn ball... 4) We make these narratives like "if there wasn't 12 men on the field or the defense didn't choke we would've won!" But when you spot a team 3 turnovers or lose the turnover battle on the road, you're putting yourself in a position to lose anyway 5) IT SHOULD NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE TO STRING TOGETHER 2+ GAMES WITHOUT AN INTERCEPTION 6) Notice how the Chiefs are also struggling this year? They're tied with us for total turnovers. The only teams ahead of us are the Commanders, Jets, Browns, Vikings & Bears. 7) We can dislike coaches, playcalling, officials, whatever... but the fumbles & INTs are what holds this team back more than all the rest combined. 9 6 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike in Horseheads Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Reality is ya can say this about almost all teams 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 6 minutes ago, Mike in Horseheads said: Reality is ya can say this about almost all teams I would guess that 3-5 is actually pretty good when you're negative on turnover diff tbh 1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Not Applicable Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Their inability to take care of the ball, coupled with their shaky special teams, is going to rear its head eventually, I'm afraid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maine-iac Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Almost anyone can see that Allen turns the ball over too much. Allen has a turnover in almost every single game. His big play ability trumps some of it but if Allen would just learn to take the easy stuff a little more often and stop throwing 15 yards down field into coverage we probably aren't fighting 3 and 8 teams for wins in the 4th quarter as often. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevestojan Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 If you give the other team the ball a lot, it doesn’t bode well for your chances of winning? Huh. If someone had given Ken Dorsey this groundbreaking data, he just might still have a job. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yall Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 28 minutes ago, Patrick Fitzryan said: Their inability to take care of the ball, coupled with their shaky special teams, is going to rear its head eventually, I'm afraid. Eventually? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikie2times Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 8 minutes ago, Maine-iac said: Almost anyone can see that Allen turns the ball over too much. Allen has a turnover in almost every single game. His big play ability trumps some of it but if Allen would just learn to take the easy stuff a little more often and stop throwing 15 yards down field into coverage we probably aren't fighting 3 and 8 teams for wins in the 4th quarter as often. One thing I will say about Brady is he did a better job protecting us from ourselves yesterday. It was a very similar game as the Jets opener but we kept running vs going into pure pass mode as we have in the past. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maine-iac Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Just now, Mikie2times said: One thing I will say about Brady is he did a better job protecting us from ourselves yesterday. It was a very similar game as the Jets opener but we kept running vs going into pure pass mode as we have in the past. This It's probably the reason we won. We throw another 20 times instead of running and I'm guessing we have a lot more 3rd and longs and probably a couple more turnovers. The run game wasn't as explosive as the Cowboys game but we were grinding just fine. 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Not Applicable Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 23 minutes ago, yall said: Eventually? I mean like they're going to lose a playoff game because of special teams Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maine-iac Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 1 hour ago, BigDingus said: We all know turnovers are a huge issue with this team, but last night made it even more apparent. I've seen a lot of people questioning Brady's playcalling or Josh needing to pass more, but the reality is turnovers are killing us the most. I went back through every game this year, and the big picture becomes a lot more clear. Here are the results: Won Turnover Battle: *WIN vs Raiders (38-10): Turnovers 0 vs 3 (BLOWOUT) *WIN vs Commies (37-3): Turnovers 1 vs 5 (BLOWOUT) *WIN vs Dolphins (48-20): Turnovers 0 vs 2 (BLOWOUT) *WIN vs NJ Jets (32-6): Turnovers 1 vs 4 (BLOWOUT) *LOSS vs Eagles (34-37): Turnovers 1 vs 2 *WIN vs Chiefs (20-17): Turnovers 1 vs 2 *WIN vs Cowboys (31-10): Turnovers 0 vs 1 (BLOWOUT) 1) First thing you notice is we're 6-1 when we have a positive turnover differential 2) 4 of the 5 wins were blowouts 3) 6 of the 7 games the Bills put up 30+ points, averaging 34.3 PPG (opponents averaging 14.7 ppg) Lost/Tied Turnover Battle: *LOSS vs NJ Jets (16-22): Turnovers 4 vs 1 ("Bad" Team) *LOSS vs Jaguars (20-25) Turnovers 2 vs 2 *WIN vs NJ Giants (14-9): Turnovers 2 vs 0 ("Bad" Team) *LOSS vs Patriots (25-29): Turnovers 2 vs 1 ("Bad" Team) *WIN vs Bucaneers (24-18): Turnovers 1 vs 0 *LOSS vs Bengals (18-24) Turnovers 2 vs 0 *LOSS vs Broncos (22-24) Turnovers 4 vs 1 *WIN vs Chargers (24-22) Turnovers 3 vs 0 ("Bad" Team) 1) Surprising nobody, we're 3-5 when we have a negative turnover differential 2) The 3 wins are against "bad" or mediocre teams, just barely escaping with a 1 score victory 3) The Bills average 20.1 PPG in these games (opponents average 21.6 PPG) 4) They're 1-5 if an opponent tops 20 points (Last night was the exception) Final Thoughts: 1) The Bills average 14 more PPG when they win the turnover battle because those drives end in POINTS. 2) Our defense isn't giving up an additional 7 PPG because they just suck, but because they have to go right back out onto the field & defend additional drives! 3) We struggle against "Bad-Average" teams because we keep giving them the damn ball... 4) We make these narratives like "if there wasn't 12 men on the field or the defense didn't choke we would've won!" But when you spot a team 3 turnovers or lose the turnover battle on the road, you're putting yourself in a position to lose anyway 5) IT SHOULD NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE TO STRING TOGETHER 2+ GAMES WITHOUT AN INTERCEPTION 6) Notice how the Chiefs are also struggling this year? They're tied with us for total turnovers. The only teams ahead of us are the Commanders, Jets, Browns, Vikings & Bears. 7) We can dislike coaches, playcalling, officials, whatever... but the fumbles & INTs are what holds this team back more than all the rest combined. Just looking at the correlation for all the people who want to throw it all the time we are 2 and 5 when Allen throws it 38 times or more and 8 and 1 when he throws it less than 38 times. If you are going to throw it 40 or 50 times your short passing game better be an extension of your running game and our isn't. I've seen our passing game do it but even when it's there I don't trust Josh to take it enough to kill defenses with it. Inevitably he'll run away from someone and hit a long TD that no one else could throw but as exciting as it is I'm not sure it's a game plan. If we punished defenses with catch and run passes to Kincaid, Cook, and Shakir then Davis and Diggs wouldn't be fighting shell coverages every play. 2 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToGoGo Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 BigDingus is a great username for the OP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 2 hours ago, Maine-iac said: This It's probably the reason we won. We throw another 20 times instead of running and I'm guessing we have a lot more 3rd and longs and probably a couple more turnovers. The run game wasn't as explosive as the Cowboys game but we were grinding just fine. but I thought the Chargers had a poor pass defense? Why not exploit it? Dallas had one of the worst rush defenses and we exploited that weakness. Also seems like Kincaid has disappeared since Brady took over. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maine-iac Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 12 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said: but I thought the Chargers had a poor pass defense? Why not exploit it? Dallas had one of the worst rush defenses and we exploited that weakness. If you watched the game then poor pass defense or not we had one good drive the whole first half and 6 of the 8 plays were rushing plays. We had one other TD in the first half and that was a one play broken scramble play drive. We put together another drive for a TD in the second half and 6 out the 10 plays on that drive were runs. I don't think it is as simple as saying statistically they are good or bad at something and therefore we will just do that and it will just work. Statistically we played a number of teams that should have been short work and we either had to pull it out in the 4th quarter or lost. Our pass protection wasn't great and Josh was back to holding the ball and waiting on guys to come open deeper and getting pressured a lot. Sometimes guys open up and TD(to Davis) and sometimes a guy comes open and between the pressure and the difficulty of the throw you just turn it over (Diggs). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, Maine-iac said: If you watched the game then poor pass defense or not we had one good drive the whole first half and 6 of the 8 plays were rushing plays. We had one other TD in the first half and that was a one play broken scramble play drive. We put together another drive for a TD in the second half and 6 out the 10 plays on that drive were runs. I don't think it is as simple as saying statistically they are good or bad at something and therefore we will just do that and it will just work. Statistically we played a number of teams that should have been short work and we either had to pull it out in the 4th quarter or lost. Our pass protection wasn't great and Josh was back to holding the ball and waiting on guys to come open deeper and getting pressured a lot. Sometimes guys open up and TD(to Davis) and sometimes a guy comes open and between the pressure and the difficulty of the throw you just turn it over (Diggs). Wonder if some of that has to do with Diggs not being on the field for nearly half the plays. There was one drive in the second half in particular where Diggs was not on the field for 1st or 2nd down to start the drive. not sure I agree with having Diggs on the sideline so much. They seem to be playing Sheffield over him in a lot of these sets without Diggs . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 4 hours ago, BigDingus said: We all know turnovers are a huge issue with this team, but last night made it even more apparent. I've seen a lot of people questioning Brady's playcalling or Josh needing to pass more, but the reality is turnovers are killing us the most. I went back through every game this year, and the big picture becomes a lot more clear. Here are the results: Won Turnover Battle: *WIN vs Raiders (38-10): Turnovers 0 vs 3 (BLOWOUT) *WIN vs Commies (37-3): Turnovers 1 vs 5 (BLOWOUT) *WIN vs Dolphins (48-20): Turnovers 0 vs 2 (BLOWOUT) *WIN vs NJ Jets (32-6): Turnovers 1 vs 4 (BLOWOUT) *LOSS vs Eagles (34-37): Turnovers 1 vs 2 *WIN vs Chiefs (20-17): Turnovers 1 vs 2 *WIN vs Cowboys (31-10): Turnovers 0 vs 1 (BLOWOUT) 1) First thing you notice is we're 6-1 when we have a positive turnover differential 2) 4 of the 5 wins were blowouts 3) 6 of the 7 games the Bills put up 30+ points, averaging 34.3 PPG (opponents averaging 14.7 ppg) Lost/Tied Turnover Battle: *LOSS vs NJ Jets (16-22): Turnovers 4 vs 1 ("Bad" Team) *LOSS vs Jaguars (20-25) Turnovers 2 vs 2 *WIN vs NJ Giants (14-9): Turnovers 2 vs 0 ("Bad" Team) *LOSS vs Patriots (25-29): Turnovers 2 vs 1 ("Bad" Team) *WIN vs Bucaneers (24-18): Turnovers 1 vs 0 *LOSS vs Bengals (18-24) Turnovers 2 vs 0 *LOSS vs Broncos (22-24) Turnovers 4 vs 1 *WIN vs Chargers (24-22) Turnovers 3 vs 0 ("Bad" Team) 1) Surprising nobody, we're 3-5 when we have a negative turnover differential 2) The 3 wins are against "bad" or mediocre teams, just barely escaping with a 1 score victory 3) The Bills average 20.1 PPG in these games (opponents average 21.6 PPG) 4) They're 1-5 if an opponent tops 20 points (Last night was the exception) Final Thoughts: 1) The Bills average 14 more PPG when they win the turnover battle because those drives end in POINTS. 2) Our defense isn't giving up an additional 7 PPG because they just suck, but because they have to go right back out onto the field & defend additional drives! 3) We struggle against "Bad-Average" teams because we keep giving them the damn ball... 4) We make these narratives like "if there wasn't 12 men on the field or the defense didn't choke we would've won!" But when you spot a team 3 turnovers or lose the turnover battle on the road, you're putting yourself in a position to lose anyway 5) IT SHOULD NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE TO STRING TOGETHER 2+ GAMES WITHOUT AN INTERCEPTION 6) Notice how the Chiefs are also struggling this year? They're tied with us for total turnovers. The only teams ahead of us are the Commanders, Jets, Browns, Vikings & Bears. 7) We can dislike coaches, playcalling, officials, whatever... but the fumbles & INTs are what holds this team back more than all the rest combined. Most important stat in football is points. Number 2 is turnovers. This has always been the case. Turnovers will always matter. 3 hours ago, GoBills808 said: I would guess that 3-5 is actually pretty good when you're negative on turnover diff tbh Elite coaching the difference? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 6 minutes ago, FireChans said: Most important stat in football is points. Number 2 is turnovers. This has always been the case. Turnovers will always matter. Elite coaching the difference? lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethan in Cleveland Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 4 hours ago, GoBills808 said: I would guess that 3-5 is actually pretty good when you're negative on turnover diff tbh Yeah that is what I was going to say. Allen giveth and he taketh away. Allen can still win you the game even when he plays poorly. If he doesn't play poorly it is near impossible to beat the Bills ( Eagles needed miraculous FG, two defensive collapses, and a bad Davis route). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Ethan in Cleveland said: Yeah that is what I was going to say. Allen giveth and he taketh away. Allen can still win you the game even when he plays poorly. If he doesn't play poorly it is near impossible to beat the Bills ( Eagles needed miraculous FG, two defensive collapses, and a bad Davis route). facts now can you write this in crayon for @FireChans pls Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 4 hours ago, GoBills808 said: I would guess that 3-5 is actually pretty good when you're negative on turnover diff tbh Most teams would likely be 1-7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 57 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: facts now can you write this in crayon for @FireChans pls Dak walked off the field with the lead. Near perfect game. MVP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Just now, FireChans said: Dak walked off the field with the lead. Near perfect game. MVP Can't believe he let down McCarthy like that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: Can't believe he let down McCarthy like that Get this man some help, he only has Ceedee Lamb, Gallup, Ferguson, and a top 5 defense. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 23 minutes ago, FireChans said: Get this man some help, he only has Ceedee Lamb, Gallup, Ferguson, and a top 5 defense. But seriously swap Allen for Dak today and Cowboys win pretty comfortably i think His ability to improvise in a muddy pocket gets them out of a lot of those spots Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrags Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Is this secretly another “Josh throws too many ints” and “Josh isn’t really in mvp consideration” thread? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perry Turtle Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 13 minutes ago, mrags said: Is this secretly another “Josh throws too many ints” and “Josh isn’t really in mvp consideration” thread? Probably. By the way, Allen walked off the field with the lead in 3 of the Bills 6 losses. If McDermott' defense could hold the lead against the Pats, Broncos, and Eagles, the Bills have 12 wins and are fighting for the top seed in the conference. But Allen' int rate is slightly higher than Brees, Manning, and Mahomes, so it's all on him I guess. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDingus Posted December 25, 2023 Author Share Posted December 25, 2023 46 minutes ago, mrags said: Is this secretly another “Josh throws too many ints” and “Josh isn’t really in mvp consideration” thread? No, this is a "Bills turn the ball over way too much," and "It's not playcalling/coaches/defense choking" thread. Allen's not the only guy on this team turning the ball over. He's one of the few QBs that can't seem to go 2 games in a row without throwing an INT, but that's not the point. Look at the stats, and you quickly see why we lose/struggle against "Bad" teams. Nearly lost to the abysmal Giants (with Tyrod Taylor) Nearly lost to the abysmal Chargers (without Herbert or Keenan Allen, the week after the awful Raiders hung 60 points on them) Lost to the Jets & Zach Wilson) Lost to the abysmal Patriots & Mac Jones Lost to the mediocre Broncos at home All because we keep spotting these teams a ton of extra opportunities. When we protect the football, suddenly we average 14 more points per game & blow people out! Crazy, I know. I don't care if Josh wins MVP, I prefer to watch the Bills succeed in the playoffs. Purdy or CMC are winning anyway, so I just want to see this team not fail in January again. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrags Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, BigDingus said: No, this is a "Bills turn the ball over way too much," and "It's not playcalling/coaches/defense choking" thread. Allen's not the only guy on this team turning the ball over. He's one of the few QBs that can't seem to go 2 games in a row without throwing an INT, but that's not the point. Look at the stats, and you quickly see why we lose/struggle against "Bad" teams. Nearly lost to the abysmal Giants (with Tyrod Taylor) Nearly lost to the abysmal Chargers (without Herbert or Keenan Allen, the week after the awful Raiders hung 60 points on them) Lost to the Jets & Zach Wilson) Lost to the abysmal Patriots & Mac Jones Lost to the mediocre Broncos at home All because we keep spotting these teams a ton of extra opportunities. When we protect the football, suddenly we average 14 more points per game & blow people out! Crazy, I know. I don't care if Josh wins MVP, I prefer to watch the Bills succeed in the playoffs. Purdy or CMC are winning anyway, so I just want to see this team not fail in January again. I was just joking. no need to assume anything about what I posted. yes. This entire team has not only given up a crap ton of turnovers. Not just Allen but the RBs. The WRs. The returners. Everyone. But….. I would like to point out that the take that “it’s not a coaching” thread may be incorrect. The Bills have lost a historically unbalanced number of fumbles. It’s practically impossible to lose as many as we have. At some point the “bad bounce” “bad luck” argument doesn’t hold water. At some point we need to ask the question as to why we are historically bad at fumbling and recovering fumbles. Or throwing Ints for that matter. Somewhere, coaching has to be held accountable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 52 minutes ago, Perry Turtle said: Probably. By the way, Allen walked off the field with the lead in 3 of the Bills 6 losses. If McDermott' defense could hold the lead against the Pats, Broncos, and Eagles, the Bills have 12 wins and are fighting for the top seed in the conference. But Allen' int rate is slightly higher than Brees, Manning, and Mahomes, so it's all on him I guess. Dak walked off the field today with a lead, crown this man the MVP already! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bermuda Triangle Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Seems like not forcing/producing turnovers in close games is a fairly significant issue as well, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Generic_Bills_Fan Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 2 hours ago, Perry Turtle said: Probably. By the way, Allen walked off the field with the lead in 3 of the Bills 6 losses. If McDermott' defense could hold the lead against the Pats, Broncos, and Eagles, the Bills have 12 wins and are fighting for the top seed in the conference. But Allen' int rate is slightly higher than Brees, Manning, and Mahomes, so it's all on him I guess. Heck we didn’t even need all three of those…just one and we’re right back in the drivers seat for the division without needing a Miami loss Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 3 hours ago, FireChans said: Dak walked off the field with the lead. Near perfect game. MVP You mean other than not being able to execute a simple handoff on the goalline when they are about to score on the first possession of the game? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Blitz Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 (edited) Josh has 12 INTs since the week 1 debacle of a game plan (55 drop backs against the Jets). Dorsey should have been fired after that imo. 12 INTs in the 14 games since week 1. Not a big deal especially since it feels like most are never in a spot that’s hurt us. Several INTs have been arm punts and one was McD wanting to throw a Hail Mary before halftime for some reason. FYI anyone talking about all Flacco’s INTs so far? Exactly. He has SEVEN in 4 games. And a fumble. That won’t be the narrative. The narrative should be if De$ean Wat$on told them he was ready to play tomorrow they would go with Flacco over him. Anyway all Allen does is win. That’s all that matters. Edited December 26, 2023 by Big Blitz 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 10 hours ago, Mike in Horseheads said: Reality is ya can say this about almost all teams Yeah. Turnovers kill every team, including the Bills. It is the #1 thing they need to fix. They have to take care of the ball better. Period. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ProcessTruster Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 15 hours ago, Maine-iac said: Almost anyone can see that Allen turns the ball over too much. Allen has a turnover in almost every single game. His big play ability trumps some of it but if Allen would just learn to take the easy stuff a little more often and stop throwing 15 yards down field into coverage we probably aren't fighting 3 and 8 teams for wins in the 4th quarter as often. this team lives (and dies) with Josh. if he goes sugar high Josh, we lose . just hope he becomes late career Elway during the playoffs and just hands the ball off Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Claude Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 (edited) Folks who think that there's nothing that can be done for the turnovers must think that Allen is a real idiot. Is it really impossible for Allen to learn enough after 6 years to reduce his turnover by 20% without crimping his style? He has already reduced his fumbles from 13 last year to 4 this year. Why can't he cut his interceptions a little bit also? One would have hoped his judgement could be improved to that extent. Edited December 25, 2023 by Billy Claude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Claude Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 (edited) 10 hours ago, Big Blitz said: 12 INTs in the 14 games since week 1. Not a big deal especially since it feels like most are never in a spot that’s hurt us. That's really selective memory. I guess you are throwing out the first Jets game, but even with the Charger's game; Bills are up 14-10, Chargers offense hasn't done much since the opening drive. Allen throws int and the Chargers get a field goal on the short field to make it 14-13. Do you need to go for the jugular there? Eagles game; Bills up 24-21, Allen throws interception, Eagles score to take the lead at 28-24. Both of these interceptions were on second down. These are the ones that I came up with off the top of my head but there were other cases where the Bills offense finally seem to be getting some rhythm only for the momentum to be completely killed due to a totally unforced turnover. Obviously the first Jets game this year and last year's Miami game comes to mind but there were others this year. When multiple opponents talk about how they bait Allen into interceptions, you've got a problem and it should be a problem that can be easily fixed (maybe it has -- no one has said that during the 2nd half of the season). I just don't understand the blind hero worship where one has to ignore or come up with an excuse for everything that your "guy" does (not just Allen, but in general). This does not mean I hate Allen. He is an elite QB -- the Bills obviously would be nowhere without him, however, he can be an all time great if he just fixes some flaws. I see no reason why he can't reduce his turnovers a bit without killing his style. Edited December 25, 2023 by Billy Claude 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 10 hours ago, Big Turk said: You mean other than not being able to execute a simple handoff on the goalline when they are about to score on the first possession of the game? Huh? He walked off the field with the lead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freak-O Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Some of Allen’s interceptions have more or less been punts on third and long. Those are not so bad and inflate the numbers. Others have been disastrously poor however and swung the momentum of entire games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichRiderBills Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 (edited) 21 hours ago, BigDingus said: We all know turnovers are a huge issue with this team, but last night made it even more apparent. I've seen a lot of people questioning Brady's playcalling or Josh needing to pass more, but the reality is turnovers are killing us the most. I went back through every game this year, and the big picture becomes a lot more clear. Here are the results: Won Turnover Battle: *WIN vs Raiders (38-10): Turnovers 0 vs 3 (BLOWOUT) *WIN vs Commies (37-3): Turnovers 1 vs 5 (BLOWOUT) *WIN vs Dolphins (48-20): Turnovers 0 vs 2 (BLOWOUT) *WIN vs NJ Jets (32-6): Turnovers 1 vs 4 (BLOWOUT) *LOSS vs Eagles (34-37): Turnovers 1 vs 2 *WIN vs Chiefs (20-17): Turnovers 1 vs 2 *WIN vs Cowboys (31-10): Turnovers 0 vs 1 (BLOWOUT) 1) First thing you notice is we're 6-1 when we have a positive turnover differential 2) 4 of the 5 wins were blowouts 3) 6 of the 7 games the Bills put up 30+ points, averaging 34.3 PPG (opponents averaging 14.7 ppg) Lost/Tied Turnover Battle: *LOSS vs NJ Jets (16-22): Turnovers 4 vs 1 ("Bad" Team) *LOSS vs Jaguars (20-25) Turnovers 2 vs 2 *WIN vs NJ Giants (14-9): Turnovers 2 vs 0 ("Bad" Team) *LOSS vs Patriots (25-29): Turnovers 2 vs 1 ("Bad" Team) *WIN vs Bucaneers (24-18): Turnovers 1 vs 0 *LOSS vs Bengals (18-24) Turnovers 2 vs 0 *LOSS vs Broncos (22-24) Turnovers 4 vs 1 *WIN vs Chargers (24-22) Turnovers 3 vs 0 ("Bad" Team) 1) Surprising nobody, we're 3-5 when we have a negative turnover differential 2) The 3 wins are against "bad" or mediocre teams, just barely escaping with a 1 score victory 3) The Bills average 20.1 PPG in these games (opponents average 21.6 PPG) 4) They're 1-5 if an opponent tops 20 points (Last night was the exception) Final Thoughts: 1) The Bills average 14 more PPG when they win the turnover battle because those drives end in POINTS. 2) Our defense isn't giving up an additional 7 PPG because they just suck, but because they have to go right back out onto the field & defend additional drives! 3) We struggle against "Bad-Average" teams because we keep giving them the damn ball... 4) We make these narratives like "if there wasn't 12 men on the field or the defense didn't choke we would've won!" But when you spot a team 3 turnovers or lose the turnover battle on the road, you're putting yourself in a position to lose anyway 5) IT SHOULD NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE TO STRING TOGETHER 2+ GAMES WITHOUT AN INTERCEPTION 6) Notice how the Chiefs are also struggling this year? They're tied with us for total turnovers. The only teams ahead of us are the Commanders, Jets, Browns, Vikings & Bears. 7) We can dislike coaches, playcalling, officials, whatever... but the fumbles & INTs are what holds this team back more than all the rest combined. Thanks for this post and the research. I'll say this to one of your final points: Turnovers be damned, Josh had would be game winners wrapped up w a bow and handed it over w less than 2 min the game to D or ST to seal up, and they blew it. To your point, these were after long drives where the D was well rested. This happened in Pats and Broncos AND Eagles games. That's 3 losses! Not to mention Jags game had some long 2nd half drives where the D had plenty of rest. 27 minutes ago, Freak-O said: Some of Allen’s interceptions have more or less been punts on third and long. Those are not so bad and inflate the numbers. Others have been disastrously poor however and swung the momentum of entire games. The first play int to Pats , first play Cook fumble by Cook to Broncos. And the last Fumble by Allen to Jets come to mind. Edited December 25, 2023 by RichRiderBills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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