Turnovers - The Bills Achilles Heel (Statistical Overview)

[Augie]

21 hours ago, BigDingus said:

We all know turnovers are a huge issue with this team, but last night made it even more apparent. I've seen a lot of people questioning Brady's playcalling or Josh needing to pass more, but the reality is turnovers are killing us the most.

 

I went back through every game this year, and the big picture becomes a lot more clear. Here are the results:

 

Won Turnover Battle:

 

*WIN vs Raiders (38-10):   Turnovers 0 vs 3 (BLOWOUT)

*WIN  vs Commies (37-3): Turnovers 1 vs 5  (BLOWOUT)

*WIN vs Dolphins (48-20): Turnovers 0 vs 2 (BLOWOUT)

*WIN vs NJ Jets (32-6):     Turnovers 1 vs 4 (BLOWOUT)

*LOSS vs Eagles (34-37):  Turnovers 1 vs 2

*WIN vs Chiefs (20-17):      Turnovers 1 vs 2

*WIN vs Cowboys (31-10): Turnovers 0 vs 1 (BLOWOUT)

 

1) First thing you notice is we're 6-1 when we have a positive turnover differential

2) 4 of the 5 wins were blowouts

3) 6 of the 7 games the Bills put up 30+ points, averaging 34.3 PPG (opponents averaging 14.7 ppg)

 

 

Lost/Tied Turnover Battle:

 

*LOSS vs NJ Jets (16-22): Turnovers 4 vs 1 ("Bad" Team)

*LOSS vs Jaguars (20-25) Turnovers 2 vs 2

*WIN vs NJ Giants (14-9): Turnovers 2 vs 0 ("Bad" Team)

*LOSS vs Patriots (25-29): Turnovers 2 vs 1 ("Bad" Team)

*WIN vs Bucaneers (24-18): Turnovers 1 vs 0

*LOSS vs Bengals (18-24) Turnovers 2 vs 0

*LOSS vs Broncos (22-24) Turnovers 4 vs 1

*WIN vs Chargers (24-22) Turnovers 3 vs 0 ("Bad" Team)

 

1) Surprising nobody, we're 3-5 when we have a negative turnover differential

2) The 3 wins are against "bad" or mediocre teams, just barely escaping with a 1 score victory

3) The Bills average 20.1 PPG in these games (opponents average 21.6 PPG)

4) They're 1-5 if an opponent tops 20 points (Last night was the exception)

 

 

Final Thoughts:

 

1) The Bills average 14 more PPG when they win the turnover battle because those drives end in POINTS.

2) Our defense isn't giving up an additional 7 PPG because they just suck, but because they have to go right back out onto the field & defend additional drives! 

3) We struggle against "Bad-Average" teams because we keep giving them the damn ball...

4) We make these narratives like "if there wasn't 12 men on the field or the defense didn't choke we would've won!" But when you spot a team 3 turnovers or lose the turnover battle on the road, you're putting yourself in a position to lose anyway

5) IT SHOULD NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE TO STRING TOGETHER 2+ GAMES WITHOUT AN INTERCEPTION

6) Notice how the Chiefs are also struggling this year? They're tied with us for total turnovers. The only teams ahead of us are the Commanders, Jets, Browns, Vikings & Bears.

7) We can dislike coaches, playcalling, officials, whatever... but the fumbles & INTs are what holds this team back more than all the rest combined.

 

 

I LOVE the Christmassy colors!!!    😋

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Just so happy we found a way to win this one, unlike the Broncos game. 

[Billy Claude]

21 hours ago, BigDingus said:

We all know turnovers are a huge issue with this team, but last night made it even more apparent. I've seen a lot of people questioning Brady's playcalling or Josh needing to pass more, but the reality is turnovers are killing us the most.

 

I went back through every game this year, and the big picture becomes a lot more clear. Here are the results:

 

Won Turnover Battle:

 

*WIN vs Raiders (38-10):   Turnovers 0 vs 3 (BLOWOUT)

*WIN  vs Commies (37-3): Turnovers 1 vs 5  (BLOWOUT)

*WIN vs Dolphins (48-20): Turnovers 0 vs 2 (BLOWOUT)

*WIN vs NJ Jets (32-6):     Turnovers 1 vs 4 (BLOWOUT)

*LOSS vs Eagles (34-37):  Turnovers 1 vs 2

*WIN vs Chiefs (20-17):      Turnovers 1 vs 2

*WIN vs Cowboys (31-10): Turnovers 0 vs 1 (BLOWOUT)

 

1) First thing you notice is we're 6-1 when we have a positive turnover differential

2) 4 of the 5 wins were blowouts

3) 6 of the 7 games the Bills put up 30+ points, averaging 34.3 PPG (opponents averaging 14.7 ppg)

 

 

Lost/Tied Turnover Battle:

 

*LOSS vs NJ Jets (16-22): Turnovers 4 vs 1 ("Bad" Team)

*LOSS vs Jaguars (20-25) Turnovers 2 vs 2

*WIN vs NJ Giants (14-9): Turnovers 2 vs 0 ("Bad" Team)

*LOSS vs Patriots (25-29): Turnovers 2 vs 1 ("Bad" Team)

*WIN vs Bucaneers (24-18): Turnovers 1 vs 0

*LOSS vs Bengals (18-24) Turnovers 2 vs 0

*LOSS vs Broncos (22-24) Turnovers 4 vs 1

*WIN vs Chargers (24-22) Turnovers 3 vs 0 ("Bad" Team)

 

1) Surprising nobody, we're 3-5 when we have a negative turnover differential

2) The 3 wins are against "bad" or mediocre teams, just barely escaping with a 1 score victory

3) The Bills average 20.1 PPG in these games (opponents average 21.6 PPG)

4) They're 1-5 if an opponent tops 20 points (Last night was the exception)

 

 

Final Thoughts:

 

1) The Bills average 14 more PPG when they win the turnover battle because those drives end in POINTS.

2) Our defense isn't giving up an additional 7 PPG because they just suck, but because they have to go right back out onto the field & defend additional drives! 

3) We struggle against "Bad-Average" teams because we keep giving them the damn ball...

4) We make these narratives like "if there wasn't 12 men on the field or the defense didn't choke we would've won!" But when you spot a team 3 turnovers or lose the turnover battle on the road, you're putting yourself in a position to lose anyway

5) IT SHOULD NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE TO STRING TOGETHER 2+ GAMES WITHOUT AN INTERCEPTION

6) Notice how the Chiefs are also struggling this year? They're tied with us for total turnovers. The only teams ahead of us are the Commanders, Jets, Browns, Vikings & Bears.

7) We can dislike coaches, playcalling, officials, whatever... but the fumbles & INTs are what holds this team back more than all the rest combined.

 

 

Just to add to this, the Jaguar game was the first game the Bills have lost in four years (since 2020) where the Bills actually had fewer turnovers than the opponents.

 

 

 

 

[Ramza86]

What im seeing is the multiple turnover being a big deal.

 

1 turnover is something that isnt an issue for this team. Multiple TOs on the other hand....want to avoid that 2nd one.

[ControllerOfPlanetX]

Need to ask Brett Farve about it..

[Perry Turtle]

15 hours ago, FireChans said:

Dak walked off the field today with a lead, crown this man the MVP already!

You blame him for that loss?  

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, Perry Turtle said:

You blame him for that loss?  

Obviously. There’s a lot of game that’s played before the last drive.

 

If we are gonna play the “Josh left the field with the lead” game, let’s play it for every QB. 
 

DAK MVP!

[Perry Turtle]

3 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Obviously. There’s a lot of game that’s played before the last drive.

 

If we are gonna play the “Josh left the field with the lead” game, let’s play it for every QB. 
 

DAK MVP!

Makes sense. Points against is a key QB stat.  I guess Allen's problem is that he also doesn't play free safety.  Or that he mis-counted the guys on the FG block team.

 

 

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, Perry Turtle said:

Makes sense. Points against is a key QB stat.  I guess Allen's problem is that he also doesn't play free safety.  Or that he mis-counted the guys on the FG block team.

 

 

Not so fun when the rabbits got the gun, I suppose.
 

20 points is an insurmountable total to eclipse.

Edited December 25, 2023 by FireChans

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Not so fun when the rabbits got the gun, I suppose.
 

20 points is an insurmountable total to eclipse.

What's the point of this line of thinking 

 

I mean Mahomes and Chiefs are like 2-5 when their defense gives up 20

 

It's not a reflection on the QB

[FireChans]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

What's the point of this line of thinking 

 

I mean Mahomes and Chiefs are like 2-5 when their defense gives up 20

 

It's not a reflection on the QB

Mahomes has been sneaky kinda bad this year tbh.

[Perry Turtle]

12 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Not so fun when the rabbits got the gun, I suppose.
 

20 points is an insurmountable total to eclipse.

It's pretty easy to eclipse when it only requires you to count to 11 when sending out a block team or stopping Mac Jones on the final drive of a game.  

 

Be careful firing that gun rabbit; you're liable to blow your own head off.

 

 

[Maine-iac]

53 minutes ago, Perry Turtle said:

Makes sense. Points against is a key QB stat.  I guess Allen's problem is that he also doesn't play free safety.  Or that he mis-counted the guys on the FG block team.

 

 

Pats and Broncos suck on offense ............. it's almost like something was helping them score points.

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Perry Turtle said:

It's pretty easy to eclipse when it only requires you to count to 11 when sending out a block team or stopping Mac Jones on the final drive of a game.  

 

Be careful firing that gun rabbit; you're liable to blow your own head off.

 

 

Josh gave both those teams points enough to win lol. 

Edited December 25, 2023 by FireChans

[BigDingus]

16 minutes ago, ControllerOfPlanetX said:

Need to ask Brett Farve about it..

 

Why? Turnovers aren't just a QB problem. 

 

But if you're just trying to equate Allen to Favre, there's plenty of other issues with that premise as well.

 

Favre was the best QB in the league at multiple points, won a SB in his 5th year, and won 3 straight MVPs from 1995 - 1997. In those MVP years, here were his numbers compared to other QBs:

 

1995: 4,413 passing yards (1st) / 38 passing TDs (1st) *41 total* / 13 INTs (15th) / 8 total (no info on lost) - WON MVP, First-Team All-Pro, AP OPY

1996: 3,899 passing yards (4th) / 39 passing TDs (1st) *41 total / 13 INTs (17th) / 11 total (no info on lost) - WON MVP, First-Team All-Pro, Won Super Bowl

1997: 3,867 passing yards (2nd) / 35 passing TDs (1st) *36 total / 16 INTs (3rd) / 7 total (no info on lost) - WON MVP, First-Team All-Pro, Lost Super Bowl

 

Aside from 1997, he was way below the league average in turnovers, and way above the pack when it came to TDs. His teams also achieved a ton of success, making the NFCCG or Super Bowl every year in that stretch. 

 

Allen is amazing, but this thread isn't ONLY about Allen. As a Bills fan, it's amazing to have a QB that's good enough to even be compared to Favre, but ultimately the TEAM needs to protect the ball better, otherwise the TEAM will not achieve the success Favre & those Packers teams did.

 

[Big Turk]

At least the Bills TOs rarely lead to defensive TDs.

[Perry Turtle]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

Josh gave both those teams points enough to win lol. 

No, he scored enough points to beat both those teams and the Eagles.  Josh walked off the field with the lead in 12 of 15 games this year.  

 

Keep shooting, though, rabbit.  You might figure this out yet.

[Perry Turtle]

44 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

Pats and Broncos suck on offense ............. it's almost like something was helping them score points.

Yeah, a 12 man on the field penalty, and a game-ending 75 yard TD drive led by Mac Jones, who is now benched. Those two things definitely helped the Pats and Broncos score points.  Good catch.

 

 

 

[Maine-iac]

Just now, Perry Turtle said:

Yeah, a 12 man on the field penalty, and a game-ending 75 yard TD drive led by Mac Jones, who is now benched. Those two things definitely helped the Pats and Broncos score points.  Good catch.

 

 

 

I'm trying to think if anything else might have helped?  Like if the other teams offense got the ball already in scoring position.  How would that happen?

[FireChans]

7 minutes ago, Perry Turtle said:

Yeah, a 12 man on the field penalty, and a game-ending 75 yard TD drive led by Mac Jones, who is now benched. Those two things definitely helped the Pats and Broncos score points.  Good catch.

 

 

 

Josh threw a pick at the end of half that gave the Broncos 3. They won by two.

 

Josh threw a pick first play from scrimmage that gave the Pats 7. They won by 4.

 

Sucks.