The somewhat probable scenario where Bills win out and miss the playoffs

[ImpactCorey]

2 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I just can’t see cincy beating the chiefs AND browns though and I don’t think it’s likely Miami beats the ravens either…cowboys maybe though. I think Tampa is gonna beat jax this weekend too..  can’t really figure out how Atlanta is a favorite over Indy I don’t think Indy’s losing that game 

 

Houston vs Cleveland this week is interesting too likely two backup qbs starting so who knows lol 

 

just this week we have 5 games with reasonable odds where any 1 going our way lets us control our own destiny 

Excellent analysis.  Go Bills!

[dickleyjones]

1% is probable? Sweet, i'm off to the casino putting it all on black 35.

[TFBillsfan]

Hopefully after this weekend, those odds move to 100% if the Bills win out!

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

57 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

We are def Browns fans over Texan fans this week.

There’s a built in silver lining there if the Texans win…we can’t miss with 11 wins if the browns lose that game because part of the scenario that keeps us out is the bengals and browns hitting 11 wins which would then be impossible 

 

Edited December 22, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[FilthyBeast]

11 hours ago, ImpactCorey said:

I keep seeing in simulators that if the Bills win out they have a >99% chance of making the playoffs.  >99% is not 100% so I was curious: what is a scenario where the Bills win out and actually MISS the playoffs?  This is what I came up with:

 

- First, the Bills win out.  They beat the Chargers, Patriots, and Dolphins.  With how they are playing as of late, very possible.  

 

- The Dolphins win the 2 games before playing the Bills.   These games are against the Cowboys and the Ravens.  This allows them to still win the division.  These are two difficult match ups and an unlikely outcome but when Miami clicks on offense, anything is possible.

 

- With the loss to the Dolphins, the Ravens still win their division by beating the 49ers or the Steelers.  I think the Steelers game is almost a lock.

 

- The Jaguars win their division by winning out against the Bucs, Panthers, and Titans.  All weak opponents and very possible assuming Lawrence stays healthy.

 

- Kansas City wins their division by beating the Raiders and Chargers.  These teams will have nothing left to play for and KC will take advantage.  However, KC drops one to the Bengals.  More on this later.

 

- The Colts win out by beating the Falcons, Raiders, and Texans.  Winning out will be tough here for the Colts but not great teams they face along the way.

 

- The Browns beat the Texans and Jets but drop one to the Bengals.   Houston may have a problem at QB and the Jets are the Jets.  This seems reasonable.  Bengals being a key loss again.

 

- The Bengals win out.  They beat the Steelers, Chiefs, and Browns.  Two key wins as previously mentioned.  This is the most unlikely part of the scenario in my opinion but also the most crucial.  Bengals wining out would be catastrophic for the Bills hopes.   Steelers are falling apart.  Bengals always play up on the Chiefs, and the Browns are a divisional match up.  I'll definitely be paying attention.

 

So there you have it, in this scenario you have Miami (12-5), Baltimore (12-5), Jacksonville (11-6), and Kansas City (11-6) as the division winners and the wildcards going to Indianapolis (11-6), Cleveland (11-6), and Cincinnati (11-6) even with Buffalo (11-6) winning out.  You know.. in case you were wondering.

 

 

I still think the Bills will be in control of their own destiny as soon Sunday night.

 

Key obviously is the Dolphins, and while they are better than a lot of fans here want to give them credit for and could in fact beat the Cowboys this week...Does anyone really think they are going into Baltimore and winning especially if the Ravens might be coming off a loss to the 49ers this week? I just don't see it especially with how beat up they are up front on the oline.

 

Also I think this scenario goes up in flames with the Jaguars too...they are frauds and I see no way they are going into Tampa without Lawrence to beat a red hot Bucs team in control of their division. And even if Lawrence plays he's not been very good anyway in recent weeks.

 

I will say this though, regarding the Bengals I would actually be rooting for them to win out or at the very least knocking KC off along the way because that means they Chiefs will have to go to Buffalo in the playoffs if both finish 11-6 as division winners.

[Gregg]

Just looking at Saturday. Go Bills and Steelers.

[SF Bills Fan]

Interesting analysis and there is a chance, but I see it as extremely unlikely. If the Dolphins beat both the Cowboys and Ravens, that will be a surprise. So I think us winning the division is our avenue. But if the Dolphins do win those two games, the Bengals winning all three is tough with the Chiefs and Browns on the schedule. I'm not too concerned. 

[TheWei44]

21 minutes ago, dickleyjones said:

1% is probable? Sweet, i'm off to the casino putting it all on black 35.

Agreed, misleading thread title for sure.  Should be something like: "Very improbable scenario where Bills run the table but still miss out"

[Motorin']

2 hours ago, NewEra said:

Thanks for putting in the work!  That’s something I wanted to know 💯 

 

Except he's totally wrong.

 

The first tie breaker step to determine Wild Card teams is the Divisional tie breaker in order to eliminate teams with the same record within each division. 

 

So there's a 0.0% chance that two teams with 11-6 records from the AFC South or North get into the playoffs ahead of an 11-6 Bills.

 

In reality, in order for the Bengals to win out they have to beat the Browns, which then ties the Browns and Bengals. 

 

One of them is eliminated by Step 1.

 

In the South, the same rule applies. One team will win the division, and it's actually not possible for there to be a second Wild Card candidate at 11-6 bc the Colts and Texans play each other. But even if it were mathematically possible, which it's not, one of them would be eliminated by the Divisional Wild Card Tie Breaker.

 

This is why the Bills have the best percentage amongst all the current will card teams. Because they are the only team that doesn't risk being eliminated by the Wild Card Divisional tie breaker in step 1. 

 

https://www.nfl.com/standings/tie-breaking-procedures

 

 

[Nineforty]

This is as useful as a poopy flavored lollipop

[ImpactCorey]

2 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

Except he's totally wrong.

 

The first tie breaker step to determine Wild Card teams is the Divisional tie breaker in order to eliminate teams with the same record within each division. 

 

So there's a 0.0% chance that two teams with 11-6 records from the AFC South or North get into the playoffs ahead of an 11-6 Bills.

 

In reality, in order for the Bengals to win out they have to beat the Browns, which then ties the Browns and Bengals. 

 

One of them is eliminated by Step 1.

 

In the South, the same rule applies. One team will win the division, and it's actually not possible for there to be a second Wild Card candidate at 11-6 bc the Colts and Texans play each other. But even if it were mathematically possible, which it's not, one of them would be eliminated by the Divisional Wild Card Tie Breaker.

 

This is why the Bills have the best percentage amongst all the current will card teams. Because they are the only team that doesn't risk being eliminated by the Wild Card Divisional tie breaker in step 1. 

 

https://www.nfl.com/standings/tie-breaking-procedures

 

 

I'm sorry but you are incorrect.  I laid it out here 

 

 

[Motorin']

3 minutes ago, ImpactCorey said:

I'm sorry but you are incorrect.  I laid it out here 

 

 

 

There is a 0.0% chance that Cleveland and Cincinnati both win a Wild card with 11-6 records because Step 1 of Wild Card Tie Breakers is eliminating teams from the same Division who are tied with the same record. 

 

Read the rules:

https://www.nfl.com/standings/tie-breaking-procedures

 

Edited December 22, 2023 by Motorin'

[ImpactCorey]

Just now, Motorin' said:

 

There is a 0.0% chance that Cleveland and Cincinnati both win a Wild card with 11-6 records because Step 1 of Wild Card Tie Breakers is eliminating teams from the same Division who are tied with the same record. 

You're missing a very important piece:

 

Quote

When the first Wild Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second and third Wild Card (i.e., eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to Step 2). In situations in which three teams from the same division are involved in the procedure, the original seeding of the teams remains the same for subsequent applications of the tiebreaker if the top-ranked team in that division qualifies for a Wild Card berth.

The key detail here is how the process is repeated. So while you eliminate them on first pass, you do not on the second.

[Motorin']

2 minutes ago, ImpactCorey said:

You're missing a very important piece:

 

The key detail here is how the process is repeated. So while you eliminate them on first pass, you do not on the second.

 

It says the original seeding remains when three of the teams are from the same division.

Edited December 22, 2023 by Motorin'

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

35 minutes ago, dickleyjones said:

1% is probable? Sweet, i'm off to the casino putting it all on black 35.

It’s a lot less than 1% haha even .1% is rounded up for this because they don’t go to a hundredths decimal place for the odds. 
 

The odds of 10 50/50 type games all going against you are .09% and I think this is even more than that 

[Einstein]

27 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

There’s a built in silver lining there if the Texans win…we can’t miss with 11 wins if the browns lose that game 

 

That’s not correct.

 

 

 

The Browns losing against the Texans only hurts our probability.

[ImpactCorey]

1 minute ago, Motorin' said:

 

It says the original seeding remains when three of the teams are from the same division.

Yes.  Buffalo, Cincinnati, and Indianapolis are not in the same division.

[Bermuda Triangle]

My interpretation of "somewhat probable" differs from that of the OP, apparently.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

8 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

That’s not correct.

 

 

 

The Browns losing against the Texans only hurts our probability.

Overall yea it decreases because those odds don’t assume we win 11 games that’s why I called it a silver lining 😂. Overall odds go down but the disaster scenario where we miss the playoffs with 11 wins is off the table because the bengals and browns both cannot possibly win 11 games. For the browns to win 11 after losing to the Texans they’d have to beat the bengals which gets the bengals stuck at 10 wins max 

Edited December 22, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Motorin']

7 minutes ago, ImpactCorey said:

Yes.  Buffalo, Cincinnati, and Indianapolis are not in the same division.

 

Ok, looks like you are right sir. I am wrong. Go Bills! They can fact win out and have each game of the 17 games needed to go wrong go wrong and miss the playoffs. Very very cool stuff indeed. 

Edited December 22, 2023 by Motorin'

[ImpactCorey]

2 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

Ok, looks like you are right sir. I am wrong. Go Bills! They can fact win out and have each game of the 17 games needed to go wrong go wrong and miss the playoffs. Very very cool stuff indeed. 

The perfect storm has to happen!  Here's to hoping it doesn't.  Go Bills!

[strive_for_five_guy]

25 minutes ago, ImpactCorey said:

I hear ya.  However, that game was their first of the year when gimpy Burrow was basically a liability on the field.  He only threw for 82 yards!  There is no way its a blow out the next time they face.

Browns may also have nothing to play for by Week 18, hence important that the Bengals lose either against Pit or KC.

[C.Biscuit97]

This would be the most Buffalo scenario ever. 
 

or losing on a game winning drive to Easton Stick.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

30 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Sorry but that’s still not correct. Even winning 11 games, a Browns loss against the Texans hurts us. There is no situation where it doesn’t. We want the Browns to win that game.

Check it out in a configurator…colts win out, dolphins win two and lose to us, jags win out, bengals win out, browns beat jets and Texans and lose to bengals we are out at 11 wins 

 

Then flip the browns and Texans game and either way you go with Cleveland vs cincy we are in 

 

it sounds like you’re just lookin at overall playoff odds which isn’t the same thing as what I’m saying.   I’m saying there’s one unlikely but horrible scenario where we win 11 games and completely miss the playoffs which is what this entire thread is about lol 

any non-bengals browns loss prevents it from happening.  Yes we’d obviously much prefer the browns win but at least there’s that built in safety net if they don’t 

 

it could be meaningless by the time that game starts though there’s a handful of other games that could prevent that scenario too…like the Steelers beating the bengals 

Edited December 22, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Big Blitz]

I mean if we worry this scenario is possible I’m stunned at the people scoffing at the idea of finishing 10-7 not getting us in (a greater then 50 percent chance we don’t.)

 

And if Miami is in must win mode in week 18 those odds are a little worse.  
 

Like I said earlier in the week.  I’m getting to a place I’d prefer Miami gains nothing from winning week 18.  
 

Which means Baltimore loses to 49ers. 
 

Miami beats Dallas and Baltimore.  KC loses 1 game.  
 

They clinch the 1 seed.  
 

Is that likely?  No.  Plus we need KC to win the only game they could possibly lose - vs Cincy.  

[Kellyhero68]

Final standings, score projections for the 2023 NFL season - ESPN

 

[SWATeam]

1 minute ago, Big Blitz said:

I mean if we worry this scenario is possible I’m stunned at the people scoffing at the idea of finishing 10-7 not getting us in (a greater then 50 percent chance we don’t.)

 

Per NYT, if we win the next two and drop the MIA game we still have a 61% chance of securing a wild card.

[ImpactCorey]

6 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

I mean if we worry this scenario is possible I’m stunned at the people scoffing at the idea of finishing 10-7 not getting us in (a greater then 50 percent chance we don’t.)

 

And if Miami is in must win mode in week 18 those odds are a little worse.  
 

Like I said earlier in the week.  I’m getting to a place I’d prefer Miami gains nothing from winning week 18.  
 

Which means Baltimore loses to 49ers. 
 

Miami beats Dallas and Baltimore.  KC loses 1 game.  
 

They clinch the 1 seed.  
 

Is that likely?  No.  Plus we need KC to win the only game they could possibly lose - vs Cincy.  

 

I'm of the opinion that if the Bills lose any of their next 3 games, they don't get in.  I just don't see it happening with their weak tie-breaking position.

Edited December 22, 2023 by ImpactCorey

[strive_for_five_guy]

2 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Check it out in a configurator…colts win out, dolphins win two and lose to us, jags win out, bengals win out, browns beat jets and Texans and lose to bengals we are out at 11 wins 

 

Then flip the browns and Texans game and either way you go with Cleveland vs cincy we are in 

 

it sounds like you’re just lookin at overall playoff odds which isn’t the same thing as what I’m saying.   I’m saying there’s one unlikely but horrible scenario where we win 11 games and completely miss the playoffs which is what this entire thread is about lol 

any non-bengals browns loss prevents it from happening.  Yes we’d obviously much prefer the browns win but at least there’s that built in safety net if they don’t 

Assuming we win out and looking back through scenarios, it does look like Browns LOSING to the Texans is an outcome that would help us control our own destiny.  The scenario where 11-6 does not get us in requires the Browns to win against the Texans.

[ImpactCorey]

3 minutes ago, Kellyhero68 said:

Final standings, score projections for the 2023 NFL season - ESPN

 

The only difference shown here vs my scenario is Miami losing one of their next two.  Definitely need that to happen.

[BringBackFlutie]

Less than 1% is probable? I come here for this kind of stuff.

[strive_for_five_guy]

2 minutes ago, BringBackFlutie said:

Less than 1% is probable? I come here for this kind of stuff.

[Dick_Cheney]

This would be a new level of sadness.

[jletha]

Simply put: we technically dont control our own destiny right now. But for week 16 alone, If ANY of Mia, Jax, Cin, Cle or Ind lose then we are guaranteed a spot if we win out.

[Eastport bills]

These scenarios will be disposable after this weekend. More likely is our winning the division or out of the playoffs with the results of the Dolphins game. 

[Gugny]

12 hours ago, ImpactCorey said:

I keep seeing in simulators that if the Bills win out they have a >99% chance of making the playoffs.  >99% is not 100% so I was curious: what is a scenario where the Bills win out and actually MISS the playoffs?  This is what I came up with:

 

- First, the Bills win out.  They beat the Chargers, Patriots, and Dolphins.  With how they are playing as of late, very possible.  

 

- The Dolphins win the 2 games before playing the Bills.   These games are against the Cowboys and the Ravens.  This allows them to still win the division.  These are two difficult match ups and an unlikely outcome but when Miami clicks on offense, anything is possible.

 

- With the loss to the Dolphins, the Ravens still win their division by beating the 49ers or the Steelers.  I think the Steelers game is almost a lock.

 

- The Jaguars win their division by winning out against the Bucs, Panthers, and Titans.  All weak opponents and very possible assuming Lawrence stays healthy.

 

- Kansas City wins their division by beating the Raiders and Chargers.  These teams will have nothing left to play for and KC will take advantage.  However, KC drops one to the Bengals.  More on this later.

 

- The Colts win out by beating the Falcons, Raiders, and Texans.  Winning out will be tough here for the Colts but not great teams they face along the way.

 

- The Browns beat the Texans and Jets but drop one to the Bengals.   Houston may have a problem at QB and the Jets are the Jets.  This seems reasonable.  Bengals being a key loss again.

 

- The Bengals win out.  They beat the Steelers, Chiefs, and Browns.  Two key wins as previously mentioned.  This is the most unlikely part of the scenario in my opinion but also the most crucial.  Bengals wining out would be catastrophic for the Bills hopes.   Steelers are falling apart.  Bengals always play up on the Chiefs, and the Browns are a divisional match up.  I'll definitely be paying attention.

 

So there you have it, in this scenario you have Miami (12-5), Baltimore (12-5), Jacksonville (11-6), and Kansas City (11-6) as the division winners and the wildcards going to Indianapolis (11-6), Cleveland (11-6), and Cincinnati (11-6) even with Buffalo (11-6) winning out.  You know.. in case you were wondering.

 

I don’t think “probable” means what you think it means, Corky. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

21 minutes ago, ImpactCorey said:

 

I'm of the opinion that if the Bills lose any of their next 3 games, they don't get in.  I just don't see it happening with their weak tie-breaking position.

There’s likely jags fans on their board saying  no way we go 2-1 down the stretch to make the playoffs our team is so bad right now’ for every person saying that here to be fair 😂. If the bucs beat the jags our odds of getting in with 10 wins shoot up

[Buffalo03]

12 hours ago, ImpactCorey said:

I keep seeing in simulators that if the Bills win out they have a >99% chance of making the playoffs.  >99% is not 100% so I was curious: what is a scenario where the Bills win out and actually MISS the playoffs?  This is what I came up with:

 

- First, the Bills win out.  They beat the Chargers, Patriots, and Dolphins.  With how they are playing as of late, very possible.  

 

- The Dolphins win the 2 games before playing the Bills.   These games are against the Cowboys and the Ravens.  This allows them to still win the division.  These are two difficult match ups and an unlikely outcome but when Miami clicks on offense, anything is possible.

 

- With the loss to the Dolphins, the Ravens still win their division by beating the 49ers or the Steelers.  I think the Steelers game is almost a lock.

 

- The Jaguars win their division by winning out against the Bucs, Panthers, and Titans.  All weak opponents and very possible assuming Lawrence stays healthy.

 

- Kansas City wins their division by beating the Raiders and Chargers.  These teams will have nothing left to play for and KC will take advantage.  However, KC drops one to the Bengals.  More on this later.

 

- The Colts win out by beating the Falcons, Raiders, and Texans.  Winning out will be tough here for the Colts but not great teams they face along the way.

 

- The Browns beat the Texans and Jets but drop one to the Bengals.   Houston may have a problem at QB and the Jets are the Jets.  This seems reasonable.  Bengals being a key loss again.

 

- The Bengals win out.  They beat the Steelers, Chiefs, and Browns.  Two key wins as previously mentioned.  This is the most unlikely part of the scenario in my opinion but also the most crucial.  Bengals wining out would be catastrophic for the Bills hopes.   Steelers are falling apart.  Bengals always play up on the Chiefs, and the Browns are a divisional match up.  I'll definitely be paying attention.

 

So there you have it, in this scenario you have Miami (12-5), Baltimore (12-5), Jacksonville (11-6), and Kansas City (11-6) as the division winners and the wildcards going to Indianapolis (11-6), Cleveland (11-6), and Cincinnati (11-6) even with Buffalo (11-6) winning out.  You know.. in case you were wondering.

 

While possible, that's a lot to happen to not make it if we win out. The odds of all that happening is slim

[GoBills808]

how probable is this tho

 

i thought it was less than 1%

[BringBackFlutie]

14 minutes ago, Gugny said:

I don’t think “probable” means what you think it means, Corky. 

 

Hahahahaha 💀💀💀