Addressing the "Josh Allen is TO machine" narrative

[par73]

According to Marino's All-22 analysis, that pass to Davis in the end zone should have been to the outside (if so, biggest error of the game was on Allen).  I don't know if that is correct, but if so, two biggest mistakes of the game were on JA.

[fridge]

Are there actually lunatics here that don't think Josh Allen is the best QB in franchise history? I'll just add this to the list of reasons why I only browse this site every few years. It's just inmates running wild and free with scissors in their hands.

[Rew]

While including all turnovers makes sense, any total turnover count still hides some data.  Using the same list that you provided, I tried to come up with a fair look at how likely someone is to turnover the ball and view on how likely they are to score a touchdown.  Basically, the combination of sacks/rushes/receptions turn into "other touches".  Fumble rate is lost fumbles on those touches.  turnover rate is ints and fumbles out of all plays where the QB didn't hand off the ball (throw/scramble/rush/receive).  touchdown rate is on the same basis as turnover rate.  This is still not perfect, as it doesn't account for kneeldowns and arm punts, but more complete then any of the other views bouncing around today.  I also wish I could find a publicly available breakdown of fumbles lost on sacks vs fumbles lost rushing, but no luck.

 

Out of this grouping of active players Allen is tasked with the 2nd highest total touch count (43 times per game). Allen is in the elite of the league (Rodgers/Mahomes/Allen) with how frequently their touches turn into touchdowns.  Allen's touches result in a turnover 2.4% of the time, which is on the higher end of the 2-2.5% grouping.  I ran numbers for a few other active players not on this list and they tend to be 2.5% on average with several in the 3-4% range and a few under 2%.  As an example of high turnovers on active players, Winston is at 3.7%.

 

In conclusion, Allen touches the ball more times per game than most active quarterbacks, he scores touchdowns at a frequency that puts him at an elite level, and he turns over the ball around league average but at a higher frequency than many of the other elite players.  In short, he is not at all representative of a "turnover machine", but he is also not a role model on elite ball security.

 

 

[Scott7975]

Just now, par73 said:

According to Marino's All-22 analysis, that pass to Davis in the end zone should have been to the outside (if so, biggest error of the game was on Allen).  I don't know if that is correct, but if so, two biggest mistakes of the game were on JA.

 

There are arguments both for and against that and no one truly knows.  There are guys that said Davis should have broke in. There are guys that said Davis should have turned and looked for the ball as soon as his man was beat. There are guys that said Allen was wrong.  No one knows but the Bills.

[par73]

Just now, Scott7975 said:

 

There are arguments both for and against that and no one truly knows.  There are guys that said Davis should have broke in. There are guys that said Davis should have turned and looked for the ball as soon as his man was beat. There are guys that said Allen was wrong.  No one knows but the Bills.

I know-- I am just citing Marino's analysis (don't know if it is right, or not).

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

6 minutes ago, par73 said:

According to Marino's All-22 analysis, that pass to Davis in the end zone should have been to the outside (if so, biggest error of the game was on Allen).  I don't know if that is correct, but if so, two biggest mistakes of the game were on JA.

I don’t really get why you would bring the sideline into play when you beat single coverage quick so I’m not sure I agree…just my two cents though could be meaningless 😂

[FireChans]

7 minutes ago, fridge said:

Are there actually lunatics here that don't think Josh Allen is the best QB in franchise history? I'll just add this to the list of reasons why I only browse this site every few years. It's just inmates running wild and free with scissors in their hands.

Did anyone say that?

[Rew]

6 minutes ago, par73 said:

According to Marino's All-22 analysis, that pass to Davis in the end zone should have been to the outside (if so, biggest error of the game was on Allen).  I don't know if that is correct, but if so, two biggest mistakes of the game were on JA.

Not just Joe.  Multiple people would agree that if the play had time to develop that the "right" option was to the outside.  That doesn't mean it was an error by Allen.  The Zero Blitz didn't allow enough time to make the read.  Davis didn't realize that the play was a bust and didn't look back to see if the ball was coming hot.  Brady rightly stated that coaching  was the issue.  There should have been a true hot route that didn't rely on a long developing option.

[julian]

23 minutes ago, Rew said:

Not just Joe.  Multiple people would agree that if the play had time to develop that the "right" option was to the outside.  That doesn't mean it was an error by Allen.  The Zero Blitz didn't allow enough time to make the read.  Davis didn't realize that the play was a bust and didn't look back to see if the ball was coming hot.  Brady rightly stated that coaching  was the issue.  There should have been a true hot route that didn't rely on a long developing option.

Yeah I seen Mike Vick say that was on the Davis to recognize the zero blitz and get his head around immediately after beating his man, unfortunately he didn’t recognize it and just ran his corner route.

[Matt_In_NH]

3 hours ago, Rew said:

Not just Joe.  Multiple people would agree that if the play had time to develop that the "right" option was to the outside.  That doesn't mean it was an error by Allen.  The Zero Blitz didn't allow enough time to make the read.  Davis didn't realize that the play was a bust and didn't look back to see if the ball was coming hot.  Brady rightly stated that coaching  was the issue.  There should have been a true hot route that didn't rely on a long developing option.

I have seen multiple “experts” view it both ways.  Not sure who is right but Davis’s helmut slam might indicate who he thought was responsible.  

[racketmaster]

This Josh is a turnover machine narrative seems to familiar to the Josh is not accurate debate. Allen has never been a qb that pads or seems overly concerned with stats. If the situation allows for him to throw a Hail Mary at end of half, he does. If he feels the need to force a deep pass on a 3rd and 15, he does. I watch a lot of other qbs “protect” their stats by taking dump offs on 3rd and long and not risking the turnover. But with Allen, he regularly converts on third and longs by taking some risk. The turnover narrative seems blown out of proportion, especially when looking at the numbers the op displayed above. 

[BarleyNY]

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-ranking-the-nfls-top-12-most-valuable-quarterbacks-of-the-2023-season

 

“3. JOSH ALLEN, BUFFALO BILLS

Wins above replacement: 2.57

The primary reason why the Bills still have anyhope of success this season is that Allen is currently on pace for a career-high PFF passing grade. He has significantly reduced his turnover-worthy play rate, which now sits at 2.3%, with his previous career-best coming in at 3.2%.

Josh Allen: PFF grades and passing metrics since 2018 — available with PFF Premium Stats”

 

PFF has Allen ranked the third most valuable QB this season and with the lowest Turnover Worthy Play Rate of his career. I’ve heard them speak about that this season and they have talked about how unlucky he has been in that regard. At one point he had 12 TOW plays and 13 TOs. They compared that to CJ Stroud who at the time also had the same 12 TOW plays, but only 2 TOs.

 

While I’m certain that there’s some bad luck involved, I think Allen is also getting baited into some predictable throws - notably the “honey hole” shot vs Cover 2. I’m not sure how much is on Allen versus his OC, but either way that’s something that he/they can clean up. 

[BigDingus]

I don't know what there is to address. You're preaching to the choir here. Bills fans are going to have Josh's back.

 

But you aren't going to change the reputation he's earned with fans of other teams & most of the media. 

 

I spend way too much time on various NFL circles online, whether it be reddit, Twitter, YouTube comments, etc. & it feels like I'm fighting a losing battle against an overwhelming public opinion that he's a "turnover machine."

 

This really became a big narrative last year, and week 1 of this season solidified it in many people's eyes. He's got to be the one that changes that perception now. Us Bills fans aren't convincing anyone.

[Matt_In_NH]

The OP here has a far superior and subjective view on this than the "I only care about INT's unless total touchdowns make my store better then total touchdowns can be discussed but under no circumstances are fumbles lost allowed to be discussed" thread.   I think it is fair to take Josh's first two years out because he made such a dramatic change and has maintained that since.

[34-78-83]

12 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

That version of himself, yes. We may have only seen that version 3-4 times ever though? Because his physical talent is the greatest the league has ever seen, him playing at his best would naturally be the best QB the league has ever seen. I believe his play against the Eagles was that version of himself.

 

We first saw it on the final game of his rookie year, home vs. Miami

 

https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=bills+games+2018#sie=m;/g/11f5hkyby3;6;/m/059yj;overview;fp;1;;;

Edited November 30, 2023 by 34-78-83

[transplantbillsfan]

17 hours ago, FireChans said:

So here's my response to @Alphadawg7's analysis which was hyper-focused on solely interceptions.

 

We are gonna look at QB's since 2018 (since Josh entered the league) and analyze the TD:TO ratio

 

Aaron Rodgers

4.3 (!)

 

Patrick Mahomes

3.2

Russell Wilson

2.9

 

Tom Brady

2.73

 

Justin Herbert

2.65

 

Jalen Hurts

2.5

 

Deshaun Watson

2.43

 

Joe Burrow

2.27

 

Kirk Cousins

2.24

 

Lamar Jackson

2.23

 

Dak Prescott

2.23

 

Josh Allen

2.18

 

Ryan Tannehill

2.09

 

Matt Stafford

1.79

 

Jared Goff

1.64

 

Matt Ryan

1.64

 

Derek Carr

1.5

 

So what does this tell us?  Josh's counting numbers are elite, but on a TD:TO ratio, he's near the bottom rung of the upper echelon QB's in the NFL today.

 

Now, some of these QB's are trending downward significantly from who or what they were 4-5 years ago, namely Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson.   But, IMO, this supports the narrative that Josh Allen is almost as much of a TO machine as he is a TD machine.

 

 

But people have never talked about Goff, Stafford, Carr, Ryan, Prescott, Cousins, Lamar or Burrow as turnover machines.

 

All those QBs have about the same statistical tendency to turn the ball over as Josh with Stafford, Ryan, Goff and Carr being pretty significantly worse and Prescott, Cousins, Lamar and Burrow almost negligibly better.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

7 hours ago, racketmaster said:

This Josh is a turnover machine narrative seems to familiar to the Josh is not accurate debate. Allen has never been a qb that pads or seems overly concerned with stats. If the situation allows for him to throw a Hail Mary at end of half, he does. If he feels the need to force a deep pass on a 3rd and 15, he does. I watch a lot of other qbs “protect” their stats by taking dump offs on 3rd and long and not risking the turnover. But with Allen, he regularly converts on third and longs by taking some risk. The turnover narrative seems blown out of proportion, especially when looking at the numbers the op displayed above. 

I’m getting pretty tired of the narrative and I might take a rainy day to go through actual impactful ints for each qb.  Per attempt I guarantee tua and hurts are much higher and some other guys you wouldn’t even expect are probably higher also 

 

feels like a bunch of Josh’s this year have been on arm punts/a Hail Mary 

 

 

[Low Positive]

6 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

But people have never talked about Goff, Stafford, Carr, Ryan, Prescott, Cousins, Lamar or Burrow as turnover machines.

 

All those QBs have about the same statistical tendency to turn the ball over as Josh with Stafford, Ryan, Goff and Carr being pretty significantly worse and Prescott, Cousins, Lamar and Burrow almost negligibly better.

People talk about Dak's INTs all the time. 

[FireChans]

5 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

But people have never talked about Goff, Stafford, Carr, Ryan, Prescott, Cousins, Lamar or Burrow as turnover machines.

 

All those QBs have about the same statistical tendency to turn the ball over as Josh with Stafford, Ryan, Goff and Carr being pretty significantly worse and Prescott, Cousins, Lamar and Burrow almost negligibly better.

Ball security with Goff is a huge sticking point. That man has tiny hands. He had multiple fumbles on TG and lost them the game.

 

Prescott was an INT machine last season and it was a huge narrative.

 

Stafford is also a TO machine, it was also a narrative about if he could win a Super Bowl leading the league in INT’s after the trade.

 

Lamar has a lower overall TO number but his TD number isn’t that good, since 2020.

 

I don’t have the standard deviation ready to argue if the differences in these numbers are “negligible” or “about the same.”

[Westside]

17 hours ago, Success said:

'kay.  I actually like the other thread better.

 

Yeah, this thread is a turnover machine!

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Ball security with Goff is a huge sticking point. That man has tiny hands. He had multiple fumbles on TG and lost them the game.

 

Prescott was an INT machine last season and it was a huge narrative.

 

Stafford is also a TO machine, it was also a narrative about if he could win a Super Bowl leading the league in INT’s after the trade.

 

Lamar has a lower overall TO number but his TD number isn’t that good, since 2020.

 

I don’t have the standard deviation ready to argue if the differences in these numbers are “negligible” or “about the same.”

 

I think you and @Alphadawg7 are looking at this in the wrong way.

 

There should be one way to examine turnovers alone:

 

It's about turnovers to touches.

 

Total turnovers DIVIDED by the TOTAL number of touches which is simply pass attempts + sacks + rushing attempts gives you a true turnover percentage.

 

That's how you determine whether Josh is really turnover prone compared to other QBs.

 

Josh, Lamar and Burrow I know are all relatively close to each other.  Josh is about 2.5% while Burrow and Lamar are about 2.1%.  I didn't put in any work for anyone else, but since you 2 are going back and forth with this, you might want to.

 

The thing is, to really figure out the cost/benefit to all this, you also basically need to do the same formula for total Touchdowns.

 

Total touchdowns DIVIDED by the TOTAL number of touches which is simply pass attempts + sacks + rushing attempts gives you a true turnover percentage.

 

That would be their actual TD %.

 

Josh in this category is 5.6% while BOTH Burrow and Lamar sit at 4.8%

 

 

So at least as far as these 2 other Elite QBs go, Josh's TD % is pretty notably higher than his TO % is worse than Burrow & Lamar, but the conversation is always about Josh being a turnover machine.

[FireChans]

21 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I think you and @Alphadawg7 are looking at this in the wrong way.

 

There should be one way to examine turnovers alone:

 

It's about turnovers to touches.

 

Total turnovers DIVIDED by the TOTAL number of touches which is simply pass attempts + sacks + rushing attempts gives you a true turnover percentage.

 

That's how you determine whether Josh is really turnover prone compared to other QBs.

 

Josh, Lamar and Burrow I know are all relatively close to each other.  Josh is about 2.5% while Burrow and Lamar are about 2.1%.  I didn't put in any work for anyone else, but since you 2 are going back and forth with this, you might want to.

 

The thing is, to really figure out the cost/benefit to all this, you also basically need to do the same formula for total Touchdowns.

 

Total touchdowns DIVIDED by the TOTAL number of touches which is simply pass attempts + sacks + rushing attempts gives you a true turnover percentage.

 

That would be their actual TD %.

 

Josh in this category is 5.6% while BOTH Burrow and Lamar sit at 4.8%

 

 

So at least as far as these 2 other Elite QBs go, Josh's TD % is pretty notably higher than his TO % is worse than Burrow & Lamar, but the conversation is always about Josh being a turnover machine.

 

15 hours ago, Rew said:

While including all turnovers makes sense, any total turnover count still hides some data.  Using the same list that you provided, I tried to come up with a fair look at how likely someone is to turnover the ball and view on how likely they are to score a touchdown.  Basically, the combination of sacks/rushes/receptions turn into "other touches".  Fumble rate is lost fumbles on those touches.  turnover rate is ints and fumbles out of all plays where the QB didn't hand off the ball (throw/scramble/rush/receive).  touchdown rate is on the same basis as turnover rate.  This is still not perfect, as it doesn't account for kneeldowns and arm punts, but more complete then any of the other views bouncing around today.  I also wish I could find a publicly available breakdown of fumbles lost on sacks vs fumbles lost rushing, but no luck.

 

Out of this grouping of active players Allen is tasked with the 2nd highest total touch count (43 times per game). Allen is in the elite of the league (Rodgers/Mahomes/Allen) with how frequently their touches turn into touchdowns.  Allen's touches result in a turnover 2.4% of the time, which is on the higher end of the 2-2.5% grouping.  I ran numbers for a few other active players not on this list and they tend to be 2.5% on average with several in the 3-4% range and a few under 2%.  As an example of high turnovers on active players, Winston is at 3.7%.

 

In conclusion, Allen touches the ball more times per game than most active quarterbacks, he scores touchdowns at a frequency that puts him at an elite level, and he turns over the ball around league average but at a higher frequency than many of the other elite players.  In short, he is not at all representative of a "turnover machine", but he is also not a role model on elite ball security.

 

 

This post did that. Josh has one of the highest TO/touch ratio of these players.

[transplantbillsfan]

36 minutes ago, FireChans said:

 

This post did that. Josh has one of the highest TO/touch ratio of these players.

 

Ummm... did you actually read the post and look at the chart?

 

He does not have the highest ratio of the players on that chart.

Edited November 30, 2023 by transplantbillsfan

[folz]

2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I think you and @Alphadawg7 are looking at this in the wrong way.

 

There should be one way to examine turnovers alone:

 

It's about turnovers to touches.

 

Total turnovers DIVIDED by the TOTAL number of touches which is simply pass attempts + sacks + rushing attempts gives you a true turnover percentage.

 

That's how you determine whether Josh is really turnover prone compared to other QBs.

 

Josh, Lamar and Burrow I know are all relatively close to each other.  Josh is about 2.5% while Burrow and Lamar are about 2.1%.  I didn't put in any work for anyone else, but since you 2 are going back and forth with this, you might want to.

 

The thing is, to really figure out the cost/benefit to all this, you also basically need to do the same formula for total Touchdowns.

 

Total touchdowns DIVIDED by the TOTAL number of touches which is simply pass attempts + sacks + rushing attempts gives you a true turnover percentage.

 

That would be their actual TD %.

 

Josh in this category is 5.6% while BOTH Burrow and Lamar sit at 4.8%

 

 

So at least as far as these 2 other Elite QBs go, Josh's TD % is pretty notably higher than his TO % is worse than Burrow & Lamar, but the conversation is always about Josh being a turnover machine.

 

About an hour ago I added the following comparison of Josh, Mahomes, and Hurts to the other thread (Alpha's thread). So, I thought I would put it in here too, just for added information on the subject:

 

 

Three QB comparison, last 4 years (2020-2023 seasons) [Didn't have time to do more than the 3 QBs, but figured it would be a good picture at least, 3 current top QBs]:

                         Total Attempts (pass + rush)              Total Turnovers (INTs + FL Lost)             Turnover %        Total TDs (pass + rush)          TD %               

Allen                                2,628                                                        74                                                2.8                                162                             6.2                    

Mahomes                        2,547                                                        53                                                2.1                                145                             5.7

Hurts                               1,879                                                         42                                                2.24                              99                              5.3

 

Averages per season (2020-2023):

                               Attempts               Total TOs            Total TDs

Allen                          657                        18.5                     40.5

Mahomes                  636.75                   13.25                  36.25

Hurts                         469.75                    10.5                    24.75

[If you prorate Hurts to the same number of attempts as Josh, his turnovers would rise to 14.7 and his TDs to 34.6.]

 

So, yes, Josh has a lot more turnovers than Mahomes and Hurts overall, but on more attempts and also with more TDs. His TO% is indeed the highest, but so is his TD%. [And as far as attempts go, Mahomes is too close to Josh for it to probably make any significant difference; but if Hurts had 750 more attempts, it is likely that his turnover % would go up from where it is---just by odds].

 

Josh averages 1.09 turnovers/game and 2.38 TDs/game (net +1.29 TDs)

Pat averages .78 turnovers/game and 2.13 TDs/game (net +1.35 TDs)

Jalen averages .62 turnovers/game and 1.46 TDs/game (net +.84 TDs)

 

So, in comparison to Mahomes, Josh has averaged 5 more turnovers per season, but also 4 more TDs per season

In comparison to Hurts, Josh has averaged 8 more turnovers/season, but also 16 more TDs per season

 

 

Another possible way to look at it (besides TDs) is number of yards per turnover:

                             Total yards (2020-2023)           Total TOs                 Yards/turnover

Allen                                      18,736                                  74                               253.12

Mahomes                            19,098                                  53                              360.34

Hurts                                     10,911                                   42                              259.79

 

So, from a yardage standpoint, Mahomes is far out ahead. But, Hurts and Josh are pretty close.

 

 

All things considered, I think Josh's yardage, TDs, and IT factor far outweigh the high turnover percentage in relation to any QB not named Mahomes. But, boy, if he could get that turnover rate down a bit...

 

Edited November 30, 2023 by folz

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Ummm... did you actually read the post and look at the chart?

 

He does not have the highest ratio of the players on that chart.

That's why I didn't say "the highest," I said "one of the highest."

 

Did you read my post?

[GoBills808]

You wanna drive a Ferrari don't complain the tires wear out too fast

[FireChans]

5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

You wanna drive a Ferrari don't complain the tires wear out too fast

Pithy metaphors don't put those Superbowl banners up.

[GoBills808]

Just now, FireChans said:

Pithy metaphors don't put those Superbowl banners up.

What you talking about😂😂we got one hanging in the practice facility as we speak

[C.Biscuit97]

On 11/29/2023 at 9:05 PM, FireChans said:

So here's my response to @Alphadawg7's analysis which was hyper-focused on solely interceptions.

 

We are gonna look at QB's since 2018 (since Josh entered the league) and analyze the TD:TO ratio

 

Aaron Rodgers

4.3 (!)

 

Patrick Mahomes

3.2

Russell Wilson

2.9

 

Tom Brady

2.73

 

Justin Herbert

2.65

 

Jalen Hurts

2.5

 

Deshaun Watson

2.43

 

Joe Burrow

2.27

 

Kirk Cousins

2.24

 

Lamar Jackson

2.23

 

Dak Prescott

2.23

 

Josh Allen

2.18

 

Ryan Tannehill

2.09

 

Matt Stafford

1.79

 

Jared Goff

1.64

 

Matt Ryan

1.64

 

Derek Carr

1.5

 

So what does this tell us?  Josh's counting numbers are elite, but on a TD:TO ratio, he's near the bottom rung of the upper echelon QB's in the NFL today.

 

Now, some of these QB's are trending downward significantly from who or what they were 4-5 years ago, namely Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson.   But, IMO, this supports the narrative that Josh Allen is almost as much of a TO machine as he is a TD machine.

 

It’s definitely not going to be a popular post but appreciate the effort. We have some straight up groupie who get upset if you don’t say Allen is the greatest qb ever and is perfect in every way. I think everyone knows how amazing Allen’s ceiling is. But to pretend like it hasn’t been inconsistent, especially this year, is just lying to yourself. 
 

and Rodgers is a straight up weirdo now but I think as crazy as his numbers are Aaron Jones has 16 rush tds which could have easily been more tds for him. 
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/gnb/2019.htm

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

21 hours ago, par73 said:

According to Marino's All-22 analysis, that pass to Davis in the end zone should have been to the outside (if so, biggest error of the game was on Allen).  I don't know if that is correct, but if so, two biggest mistakes of the game were on JA.

The defender had inside leverage, he’s only going to open on the corner route, in fact was. If it was in breaking it may be an int but definitely harder to get separation 

[transplantbillsfan]

5 hours ago, folz said:

 

About an hour ago I added the following comparison of Josh, Mahomes, and Hurts to the other thread (Alpha's thread). So, I thought I would put it in here too, just for added information on the subject:

 

 

Three QB comparison, last 4 years (2020-2023 seasons) [Didn't have time to do more than the 3 QBs, but figured it would be a good picture at least, 3 current top QBs]:

                         Total Attempts (pass + rush)              Total Turnovers (INTs + FL Lost)             Turnover %        Total TDs (pass + rush)          TD %               

Allen                                2,628                                                        74                                                2.8                                162                             6.2                    

Mahomes                        2,547                                                        53                                                2.1                                145                             5.7

Hurts                               1,879                                                         42                                                2.24                              99                              5.3

 

Averages per season (2020-2023):

                               Attempts               Total TOs            Total TDs

Allen                          657                        18.5                     40.5

Mahomes                  636.75                   13.25                  36.25

Hurts                         469.75                    10.5                    24.75

[If you prorate Hurts to the same number of attempts as Josh, his turnovers would rise to 14.7 and his TDs to 34.6.]

 

So, yes, Josh has a lot more turnovers than Mahomes and Hurts overall, but on more attempts and also with more TDs. His TO% is indeed the highest, but so is his TD%. [And as far as attempts go, Mahomes is too close to Josh for it to probably make any significant difference; but if Hurts had 750 more attempts, it is likely that his turnover % would go up from where it is---just by odds].

 

Josh averages 1.09 turnovers/game and 2.38 TDs/game (net +1.29 TDs)

Pat averages .78 turnovers/game and 2.13 TDs/game (net +1.35 TDs)

Jalen averages .62 turnovers/game and 1.46 TDs/game (net +.84 TDs)

 

So, in comparison to Mahomes, Josh has averaged 5 more turnovers per season, but also 4 more TDs per season

In comparison to Hurts, Josh has averaged 8 more turnovers/season, but also 16 more TDs per season

 

 

Another possible way to look at it (besides TDs) is number of yards per turnover:

                             Total yards (2020-2023)           Total TOs                 Yards/turnover

Allen                                      18,736                                  74                               253.12

Mahomes                            19,098                                  53                              360.34

Hurts                                     10,911                                   42                              259.79

 

So, from a yardage standpoint, Mahomes is far out ahead. But, Hurts and Josh are pretty close.

 

 

All things considered, I think Josh's yardage, TDs, and IT factor far outweigh the high turnover percentage in relation to any QB not named Mahomes. But, boy, if he could get that turnover rate down a bit...

 

 

Nicely done.

 

Could you do that also for Burrow and Lamar? I think that would cover the top 5 QBs in the NFL over the last few years.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

On 11/29/2023 at 6:05 PM, FireChans said:

But, IMO, this supports the narrative that Josh Allen is almost as much of a TO machine as he is a TD machine.

 

I’m honestly curious how you came to that conclusion. Is 100 almost 200? Is 20 almost 40? 

 

At 2.18 :1 that means for every 20 turnovers he has on the season he has roughly 44 TD’s. 44 TD’s also happens to be close to about the exact number of TD’s he has averaged over the last four seasons including this season where he is on pace for 47 TD’s.

 

Is 96 almost 210? Allen has 210 career TD’s and 96 career turnovers. 
 

Also consider, not that it matters because the entire premise that 210 is somehow close to 96 is clearly false, but consider that since Allen arrived in 2020 his TD:INT ratio over the last four years is even better at 2.36

 

Let’s also consider that no player in league history has put up 3+ 40 TD seasons, Allen is on his way to his 4th straight such season. So a record he already holds he will add to. 
 

No player has as many total TD’s as Allen since 2020. Which also shows he’s one durable SOB too as a guy like Lamar could probably be close to Allen but he’s missed far too many games due to injury. 
 

 

[Buffalo716]

7 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

I’m honestly curious how you came to that conclusion. Is 100 almost 200? Is 20 almost 40? 

 

At 2.18 :1 that means for every 20 turnovers he has on the season he has roughly 44 TD’s. 44 TD’s also happens to be close to about the exact number of TD’s he has averaged over the last four seasons including this season where he is on pace for 47 TD’s.

 

Is 96 almost 210? Allen has 210 career TD’s and 96 career turnovers. 
 

Also consider, not that it matters because the entire premise that 210 is somehow close to 96 is clearly false, but consider that since Allen arrived in 2020 his TD:INT ratio over the last four years is even better at 2.36

 

Let’s also consider that no player in league history has put up 3+ 40 TD seasons, Allen is on his way to his 4th straight such season. So a record he already holds he will add to. 
 

No player has as many total TD’s as Allen since 2020. Which also shows he’s one durable SOB too as a guy like Lamar could probably be close to Allen but he’s missed far too many games due to injury. 
 

 

Agreed.

 

Allen isn't perfect but the pros out weigh cons... He is scoring at an UNPARALLELED pace in NFL history

 

Nobody will be able to keep up

[FireChans]

16 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

I’m honestly curious how you came to that conclusion. Is 100 almost 200? Is 20 almost 40? 

 

At 2.18 :1 that means for every 20 turnovers he has on the season he has roughly 44 TD’s. 44 TD’s also happens to be close to about the exact number of TD’s he has averaged over the last four seasons including this season where he is on pace for 47 TD’s.

 

Is 96 almost 210? Allen has 210 career TD’s and 96 career turnovers. 
 

Also consider, not that it matters because the entire premise that 210 is somehow close to 96 is clearly false, but consider that since Allen arrived in 2020 his TD:INT ratio over the last four years is even better at 2.36

 

Let’s also consider that no player in league history has put up 3+ 40 TD seasons, Allen is on his way to his 4th straight such season. So a record he already holds he will add to. 
 

No player has as many total TD’s as Allen since 2020. Which also shows he’s one durable SOB too as a guy like Lamar could probably be close to Allen but he’s missed far too many games due to injury. 
 

 

The conclusion was based on the data in the OP relative to his peers. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

3 minutes ago, FireChans said:

The conclusion was based on the data in the OP relative to his peers. 

 

Your data in the OP is accurate. I have no problems with that.

 

Your conclusion was wrong. Like blatantly wrong. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

On 11/29/2023 at 7:38 PM, FireChans said:

I'm tough on him for lots of reasons.

 

1. Because he signed a quarter of a billion dollar contract and that comes with level of expectations (i.e. not getting inexplicably outplayed by Zach Wilson and Mac Jones)

2. If he was a bit more consistent week to week and cleaned up a little more of the turnovers, he might just be the undisputed best in the league

 

I'm very happy Josh Allen is our QB. I think he's great. I want him to be the best, just like I want every Bills player to be the best player ever. Because I want to see them win a Superbowl.

 

Honestly, through six season and 4 now of being elite. He's largely the same player he has always been. Which is a freaking bad ass the league has never seen. Brett Favre or John Elway on steroids for lack of a better comp.

 

  I think you would enjoy the Bills and life more (even more, not saying you are not) if you just accepted Josh for who he is, which for my money, when you take into account the entirety of the body of work of the last four years and the current QB landscape of the league, is the undisputed second best QB in the league behind Mahomes. Probably the only guy who has the skill set to actually maybe someday be better than Mahomes. But if he doesn't, I'm cool with it. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

On 11/29/2023 at 7:53 PM, FireChans said:

As bad as the defense was in that second half, I think the Bills win that game if Josh doesn't throw that pick tbh.

 

Allen's QBR for the game was like 83. If he doesn't throw the pick, I imagine he has a QBR over 90. What was Hurts QBR for the game? In the 50's? 

 

So, one QB to win has to have a QBR over 90. The other QB can win with a QBR in the 50's. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

On 11/29/2023 at 8:20 PM, FireChans said:

He was probably the best player on the field. He could've been better, and I believe if he was, we would've won. Especially against arguably the worst passing defense in the NFL.

 

If that's too high of expectations to you, that's fair.

 

Honestly you need to chill bro. You won't survive the Josh Allen era at this rate. He's only maybe halfway through his career. 

[folz]

2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Nicely done.

 

Could you do that also for Burrow and Lamar? I think that would cover the top 5 QBs in the NFL over the last few years.

 

Adding Burrow and Jackson to the comparison per request

 

Five QB comparison, last 4 years (2020-2023 seasons) 

 

                         Total Attempts (pass + rush)              Total Turnovers (INTs + FL Lost)             Turnover %        Total TDs (pass + rush)          TD %               

Allen                                2,628                                                        74                                                2.8                                162                             6.2                    

Mahomes                        2,547                                                        53                                                2.1                                145                             5.7

Hurts                               1,879                                                         42                                                2.24                              99                              5.3

Burrow                            2,078                                                         47                                                2.26                             107                             5.15

Jackson                          1,934                                                         49                                                2.53                              89                             4.60                   

 

Average per season (2020-2023):

                               Attempts               Total TOs            Total TDs

Allen                         657                         18.5                     40.5

Mahomes                 636.75                   13.25                  36.25

Hurts                        469.75                    10.5                    24.75

Burrow                      519.5                      11.75                   26.75           

Jackson                   483.5                      12.25                  22.25

 

[If you prorate each QB to the same number of attempts as Josh, it would look like this:

                               Attempts               Total TOs            Total TDs

Allen                         657                         18.5                     40.5

Mahomes                 657                         13.7                     37.4

Hurts                        657                         14.7                     34.6

Burrow                      657                        14.9                     33.8         

Jackson                   657                         16.6                     30.2

 

[I adjusted the following numbers from my first post with the players actual number of games played for 2020-2023]

Josh averaged 1.21 turnovers/game and 2.66 TDs/game (net +1.45 TDs)

Pat averaged .88 turnovers/game and 2.41 TDs/game (net +1.53 TDs)

Jalen averaged .88 turnovers/game and 1.77 TDs/game (net +.89 TDs)

Joe averaged .90 turnovers/game and 2.06 TDs/game (net +1.16 TDs)

Lamar averaged .96 turnovers/game and 1.75 TDs/game (net +.79 TDs)

 

So, over 2020-2023:

In comparison to Mahomes, Josh has averaged 5 more turnovers per season, but also 4 more TDs per season

In comparison to Hurts, Josh has averaged 8 more turnovers/season, but also 16 more TDs per season

In comparison to Burrow, Josh has averaged 6 more turnovers/season, but also 14 more TDs per season

In comparison to Jackson, Josh has averaged 6 more turnovers/season, but also 18 more TDs per season

 

 

Another possible way to look at it (besides TDs) is number of yards per turnover:

                                  Total yards (2020-2023)           Total TOs                 Yards/turnover

Allen                                      18,736                                  74                               253.12

Mahomes                              19,098                                  53                              360.34

Hurts                                     10,911                                   42                              259.79

Burrow                                  14,688                                  47                               312.51

Jackson                                13,609                                  49                               277.73

 

 

[FireChans]

7 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Allen's QBR for the game was like 83. If he doesn't throw the pick, I imagine he has a QBR over 90. What was Hurts QBR for the game? In the 50's? 

 

So, one QB to win has to have a QBR over 90. The other QB can win with a QBR in the 50's. 

The other QB has a better team.