Chance of Playoffs now, according to NYT simulator

[Bermuda Triangle]

 

[gonzo1105]

Matt Barkley signed to the Jaguars active roster.

 

Wonder if Trevor Lawrence is getting shut down 

[That's No Moon]

12 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

Matt Barkley signed to the Jaguars active roster.

 

Wonder if Trevor Lawrence is getting shut down 

[uninja]

48 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

Matt Barkley signed to the Jaguars active roster.

 

Wonder if Trevor Lawrence is getting shut down 

 

At this point are the Jags even gonna win their division?

[BillsfaninSB]

Who do we want to win with Chiefs vs Bengals? 
 

Chiefs to get the Bengals out of our hair for good this year (assuming win against the Pats) or Bengals to make the Chiefs sweat it out?

[Dr Krentist]

6 minutes ago, BillsfaninSB said:

Who do we want to win with Chiefs vs Bengals? 
 

Chiefs to get the Bengals out of our hair for good this year (assuming win against the Pats) or Bengals to make the Chiefs sweat it out?

Doesn't matter to me. We win out, we get the #2 seed. Would be funny if the Chiefs lose out and Denver wins out to win the division though.

[Rew]

1 hour ago, BillsfaninSB said:

Who do we want to win with Chiefs vs Bengals? 
 

Chiefs to get the Bengals out of our hair for good this year (assuming win against the Pats) or Bengals to make the Chiefs sweat it out?

For us, the best chance of playoffs is chiefs winning.  They don't matter for seeding for us.

[gonzo1105]

1 hour ago, BillsfaninSB said:

Who do we want to win with Chiefs vs Bengals? 
 

Chiefs to get the Bengals out of our hair for good this year (assuming win against the Pats) or Bengals to make the Chiefs sweat it out?

We def want the Chiefs to win. If we win out we beat the Chiefs on tie breaker, if the Bills lose a game, the Bengals are a big piece of us still getting in 

[CSBill]

3 hours ago, Bermuda Triangle said:

 

Pittsburgh is @ Seattle

Cincinnati is @ Kansas City 

Jacksonville is home vs. Carolina 

Houston is home vs. Tennessee 

Indianapolis is home vs. Las Vegas 

 

I see the Steelers, Bengals, and Colts losing. 
 

Texans - Titans is a toss up.

 

Jaguars (with or without Lawrence) should handle the Panthers. 
 

I’m most confident the Steelers and Bengals will lose. Assuming the Bills win this weekend, I believe they will have a playoff bid wrapped up by the end of this weekend. 

[KDIGGZ]

If Ravens beat Miami they clinch #1 seed and Lamar and the starters will rest week 18 vs Steelers which means easy W for Pittsburgh. So basically if Bills don't win out they don't make the playoffs if I'm reading this right 

[RichRiderBills]

2 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

If Ravens beat Miami they clinch #1 seed and Lamar and the starters will rest week 18 vs Steelers which means easy W for Pittsburgh. So basically if Bills don't win out they don't make the playoffs if I'm reading this right 

 

Can you just read the above clinch scenarios? 

 

 

[Rew]

6 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

If Ravens beat Miami they clinch #1 seed and Lamar and the starters will rest week 18 vs Steelers which means easy W for Pittsburgh. So basically if Bills don't win out they don't make the playoffs if I'm reading this right 

You're not reading it right.  In the PIT losing scenarios, they have to lose once between week 17 and 18.  This is listing all of the ways we can clinch a playoff seed next week.  

 

Even if the scenario you suggested plays out, I don't know what about the Steelers makes you so sure they would win against Bal.  

 

I know you have posted multiple times indicating that you don't understand playoff seeding, but trust basically everyone else in the world that understands there are far more ways for the bills to get in at 10-7 at this point than to be out.

 

Regardless, win out and we're in is the most sensible path.

 

Edited December 27, 2023 by Rew
Typo

[thenorthremembers]

44 minutes ago, NJKBillsfan said:

What happens if we split the next two games?

 

Do we still have a good chance to get in? 

A lot better shape than we were in two weeks ago.   I thought they'd have to win out for sure but looks like they can probably afford to lose one game and still get in.

[JohnNord]

This is why I told people not to freak out when the Bills were 5-5 and 6-6 and NYT has them at 16%.  It was as meaningless as saying the Bills the highest probably of winning the Super Bowl last year.  These so much that could happen over 7-8 weeks.  

I remember someone was arguing with Jeremy Whotenfrom WGR on the validity then and he was like “well….these are tens of thousands of simulations.”  
 

Now with two weeks left you can see what has to happen for scenarios and how likely they are to happen - knowing that the better team on paper doesn’t always win.  

[DBilz2500]

17 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

If Ravens beat Miami they clinch #1 seed and Lamar and the starters will rest week 18 vs Steelers which means easy W for Pittsburgh. So basically if Bills don't win out they don't make the playoffs if I'm reading this right 

Huh? We only need 1 loss from any of the 5 8-7 teams to clinch assuming we beat the Pats. The Steelers could win out and have absolutely no effect on us. Many many different scenarios get us in if we only win 1 more game. 

[Dr Krentist]

42 minutes ago, NJKBillsfan said:

What happens if we split the next two games?

 

Do we still have a good chance to get in? 

 If two out of Pit, Cin, and Jax lose next week, Buf can drop a game.

[Motorin']

25 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

If Ravens beat Miami they clinch #1 seed and Lamar and the starters will rest week 18 vs Steelers which means easy W for Pittsburgh. So basically if Bills don't win out they don't make the playoffs if I'm reading this right 

 

Willie Parker says hi.

 

15 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

A lot better shape than we were in two weeks ago.   I thought they'd have to win out for sure but looks like they can probably afford to lose one game and still get in.

 

They have a 96% chance of making the playoffs if they win  one more game.

 

[gonzo1105]

While I like the Bills chances, there are some scenarios that are very possible that could leave the Bills out if they lose. Really need the Steelers and Bengals to fall this week. The Browns may not have anything to play for next week against the Bengals and the same for the Ravens if they beat the Dolphins.

[KDIGGZ]

1 hour ago, DBilz2500 said:

Huh? We only need 1 loss from any of the 5 8-7 teams to clinch assuming we beat the Pats. The Steelers could win out and have absolutely no effect on us. Many many different scenarios get us in if we only win 1 more game. 

Put it into the simulator. Pittsburgh beats Seattle, Ravens beat Miami, Ravens clinch and sit starters week 18 and Pittsburgh wins against Ravens backups as a result. If Bills lose to Miami they are out of the playoffs.

[Nelius]

8 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

Put it into the simulator. Pittsburgh beats Seattle, Ravens beat Miami, Ravens clinch and sit starters week 18 and Pittsburgh wins against Ravens backups as a result. If Bills lose to Miami they are out of the playoffs.

Still getting Bills in as 7th seed when following this logic… unless you assume that they also lose to New England. Are you just burying the fact that you have Buffalo not winning again? 

[KDIGGZ]

3 minutes ago, Nelius said:

Still getting Bills in as 7th seed when following this logic… unless you assume that they also lose to New England. Are you just burying the fact that you have Buffalo not winning again? 

No that's why I'm saying what am I missing. When I put in Bills win this week and lose next week but Pittsburgh winning out then Pittsburgh is in for what I see a very likely scenario where Ravens are resting starters. Not sure, oh well I'll take everyone's word for it!

[gonzo1105]

5 minutes ago, Nelius said:

Still getting Bills in as 7th seed when following this logic… unless you assume that they also lose to New England. Are you just burying the fact that you have Buffalo not winning again? 

If this scenario plays out, we need two of Jacksonville, Houston, or the Colts to lose another game. That would be how we get in. Obviously one of Houston/Indy will get another loss but we need the other to lose and another Cinci loss

Edited December 27, 2023 by gonzo1105

[transplantbillsfan]

4 hours ago, Dr Krentist said:

Doesn't matter to me. We win out, we get the #2 seed. Would be funny if the Chiefs lose out and Denver wins out to win the division though.

 

Miami needs to lose to Baltimore first. It's possible, probably even likely, but not a guarantee.

 

We need to win Sunday against the Pats, first and foremost.

 

But let's say Buffalo beats the Pats (likely), AND any combination of 2 of the following 3 where Jacksonville loses to the Panthers (possible and maybe very possible with Lawrence's injury), Pittsburgh loses to the Seahawks (very possible), Cincy loses to the Chiefs (I'm giving this just a very possible at this point) AND Miami beats the Ravens (possible)...

 

Do you treat week 18 like a preseason game and rest starters knowing you're likely to be back in Miami the following week, anyway???

[EmotionallyUnstable]

44 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Miami needs to lose to Baltimore first. It's possible, probably even likely, but not a guarantee.

 

We need to win Sunday against the Pats, first and foremost.

 

But let's say Buffalo beats the Pats (likely), AND any combination of 2 of the following 3 where Jacksonville loses to the Panthers (possible and maybe very possible with Lawrence's injury), Pittsburgh loses to the Seahawks (very possible), Cincy loses to the Chiefs (I'm giving this just a very possible at this point) AND Miami beats the Ravens (possible)...

 

Do you treat week 18 like a preseason game and rest starters knowing you're likely to be back in Miami the following week, anyway???

if Bills clinch Sunday and the fins lock up the division, I do not play my starters week 18. 
 

Although in your scenario, we wouldn’t be playing Miami again because they would likely be all in fighting for the 1 seed (taken the lead on the H2H with win over Ravebs). 
 

No way in giving Christian Wilkins another crack at Allen’s jewls before a trip to KC in the WC round 

[strive_for_five_guy]

4 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

if Bills clinch Sunday and the fins lock up the division, I do not play my starters week 18. 
 

Although in your scenario, we wouldn’t be playing Miami again because they would likely be all in fighting for the 1 seed (taken the lead on the H2H with win over Ravebs). 
 

No way in giving Christian Wilkins another crack at Allen’s jewls before a trip to KC in the WC round 

Totally agree. If only thing we can impact heading into Week 18 is our WC seeding, I rest my starters.
 

Don’t know if it’s been pointed out already, but I believe unless we lose to New England, Miami will have something to play for in Week 18 no matter what.  Either trying to hold onto 1 seed, or playing for the division.  In the latter scenario, we’d obviously be going all out too.  In the former, it would depend on whether we’ve locked up a WC spot or not.

[JohnNord]

45 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Miami needs to lose to Baltimore first. It's possible, probably even likely, but not a guarantee.

 

We need to win Sunday against the Pats, first and foremost.

 

But let's say Buffalo beats the Pats (likely), AND any combination of 2 of the following 3 where Jacksonville loses to the Panthers (possible and maybe very possible with Lawrence's injury), Pittsburgh loses to the Seahawks (very possible), Cincy loses to the Chiefs (I'm giving this just a very possible at this point) AND Miami beats the Ravens (possible)...

 

Do you treat week 18 like a preseason game and rest starters knowing you're likely to be back in Miami the following week, anyway???

It’s hard to say - there’s been two examples where the Bills were locked in as the highest seed they could get in Week 18.
 

In 2019, they chose to rest the majority of starters against NYJ knowing they had the 5th seed.  I don’t know if the coaching staff saw this as a benefit as the Bills lost in Houston the next week. 
 

In 2020, the Bills were locked in as the #2 seed.  They really had nothing to play for but McDermott still elected to play most starters for a half and they completely dog walked Miami to keep them out of the playoffs.

 

In 2021 and 2022 they needed a win for the AFCE (2021) and to keep the neutral site playoff game with KC (2022)

 

So there is evidence of the Bills taking both measures in years past.  My guess is that the starters would play for at least a half.  The Bills had a later bye this season and I almost feel it would benefit them more to keep playing.   

[Bermuda Triangle]

https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-playoff-picture-postseason-probabilities-entering-week-17-of-2023-season

 

According to this article, the Bills have a 97% chance of making the playoffs with a win in Week 17.

[strive_for_five_guy]

So if we get in as a WC, it’s most likely we will be the #6 seed.  In which case our path to the SB is likely go to KC, then Bal (us as likely worst seed left), then to Mia.  Would def be a gauntlet, but we’ve shown we can beat two of those teams already.

 

if we win the division, we will be the #2 seed (Bal #1, KC likely #3, Mia #6).  We’d host whatever crappy team is the 7 seed, and the host either KC (if they beat MIA) or winner of South division/Cle matchup (I’d love to take Mahomes down in our house, although he’d scare me too).  If we made it to AFCCG, we’d either go to Bal, or HOST MIAMI (Mia would need wins at KC and then at Bal).  How awesome of an AFCCG would that be, hosting Mia with a chance to get back to the SB???

[TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th]

43 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

if Bills clinch Sunday and the fins lock up the division, I do not play my starters week 18. 
 

Although in your scenario, we wouldn’t be playing Miami again because they would likely be all in fighting for the 1 seed (taken the lead on the H2H with win over Ravebs). 
 

No way in giving Christian Wilkins another crack at Allen’s jewls before a trip to KC in the WC round 

Completely agree. I'd want to finish 7th not 6th anyways.  I just want to stay away from playing on the road against the defending super bowl champions, I don't care how they've looked lately last ichecked they still have mahomes. I'll take my chances at Baltimore or at Cleveland instead.