Road to the Playoffs

[CodeMonkey]

Man the talk sure turns around quick here after beating a team with no OL and a pretty bad QB. From fire everyone to playoffs

But the truth of the matter is, the Bills hold their destiny in their own hands. Iggles, KC, Cowgirls, then finishing up with two AFCE games.  

It's up to them to put up or get some early tee times..

 

[Scott7975]

26 minutes ago, RunTheBall said:

I think we need to win the Division to get in. So we need to be 1 game behind Miami before we play them in week 18. That’s unlikely but it’s doable. Can’t lose another AFC game if we want a chance at the wild card though. That means W’s against Miami/NE/KC/Chargers

I’m counting on Miami’s usual December swoon but they look much better this year unfortunately.

 

Although they pulled it out against the Raiders, they looked not so good IMO.  If the Raiders had any semblance of offense, Miami would have gotten smoked or at the very least lost.

27 minutes ago, mannc said:

It would be sadly ironic, given all the injuries this teams is fighting through, that their precious bye week might come after they are effectively eliminated from playoff contention...another poor McDermott decision (he had the option of taking the bye week immediately after the London game).  

 

I don't see how that really changes anything.  The guys we lost in London are not coming back either way. The guys we lost in other games weren't just nursing booboo's that got worse.  They got hurt in the games we played.

[mannc]

4 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

 

 

I don't see how that really changes anything.  The guys we lost in London are not coming back either way. The guys we lost in other games weren't just nursing booboo's that got worse.  They got hurt in the games we played.

So you don't think the Bills could have used a bye week sometime over the past month or so? 

[DrBob806]

11 hours ago, Warcodered said:

Haven't they won more games without him than with him?

Watson was 5-1 as a starter. Granted, one of those games he only played a quarter (vs Colts)

[Scott7975]

2 minutes ago, mannc said:

So you don't think the Bills could have used a bye week sometime over the past month or so? 

 

Sure?  I just don't see how it changes anything with our current injuries.  Now we have it after a physical game against the Eagles.  Can get some rest and some game planning going for our remaining schedule of the Chiefs, Bolts, Cowboys, Pats, and Miami.  If we make the playoffs then we have the most rest of anyone outside the 1 seed.

[mannc]

1 minute ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Sure?  I just don't see how it changes anything with our current injuries.  Now we have it after a physical game against the Eagles.  Can get some rest and some game planning going for our remaining schedule of the Chiefs, Bolts, Cowboys, Pats, and Miami.  If we make the playoffs then we have the most rest of anyone outside the 1 seed.

But if we lose to Philly, it's pretty much over anyway

[DrBob806]

37 minutes ago, mannc said:

It would be sadly ironic, given all the injuries this teams is fighting through, that their precious bye week might come after they are effectively eliminated from playoff contention...another poor McDermott decision (he had the option of taking the bye week immediately after the London game).  

Really? I thoght the NFL schedule was computer-generated on BYE weeks? 

 

It seems that every NFL team's BYE fluctuates on a history. In other words, for "parity sake," it rotates to "early season BYE," then "mid season BYE," then "late season BYE." Never heard of a coach/team influencing a schedule.

[SCBills]

9 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Although they pulled it out against the Raiders, they looked not so good IMO.  If the Raiders had any semblance of offense, Miami would have gotten smoked or at the very least lost.

 

I don't see how that really changes anything.  The guys we lost in London are not coming back either way. The guys we lost in other games weren't just nursing booboo's that got worse.  They got hurt in the games we played.

 

Everything changes if the Bills can get a win in Philly.

 

There's still talent on this defense, but they need to get healthy for the stretch run.  It hasn't just been the losses of Jones, Milano and Tre... it's been that, plus constantly missing other guys for a game or two and/or guys playing through injury rendering them far less effective.  

 

When healthy, I don't accept that this Defense can't at least be solid:

 

Floyd - Rousseau - Epenesa (Von, Shaq)

 

Oliver - Joseph - Phillips (Settle, Poona)

 

Bernard - Johnson (Dodson, Williams, Lewis, Neal)

 

Douglas - Benford (Jackson)

 

Hyde - Poyer (Rapp?, Hamlin, Lewis)

 

That defense I just listed has 3 above average EDGE rushers, an elite DT, a really good MLB, two solid corners and a solid Safety duo.

 

I'm not of the mindset that we should be absolving them of any blame because "injuries" when they still have the ability *if healthy* to put those guys out there. 

[mannc]

Just now, DrBob806 said:

Really? I thoght the NFL schedule was computer-generated on BYE weeks? 

 

It seems that every NFL team's BYE fluctuates on a history. In other words, for "parity sake," it rotates to "early season BYE," then "mid season BYE," then "late season BYE." Never heard of a coach/team influencing a schedule.

Teams that played games overseas were given the option of having their bye the following week or later in the season.  McDermott chose to have it later.

[Scott7975]

8 minutes ago, mannc said:

But if we lose to Philly, it's pretty much over anyway

 

I wouldn't say its over but yeah we pretty much have no room for mistakes.  If we had the bye after the Jags game how does that change?

[Scott7975]

12 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

Everything changes if the Bills can get a win in Philly.

 

There's still talent on this defense, but they need to get healthy for the stretch run.  It hasn't just been the losses of Jones, Milano and Tre... it's been that, plus constantly missing other guys for a game or two and/or guys playing through injury rendering them far less effective.  

 

When healthy, I don't accept that this Defense can't at least be solid:

 

Floyd - Rousseau - Epenesa (Von, Shaq)

 

Oliver - Joseph - Phillips (Settle, Poona)

 

Bernard - Johnson (Dodson, Williams, Lewis, Neal)

 

Douglas - Benford (Jackson)

 

Hyde - Poyer (Rapp?, Hamlin, Lewis)

 

That defense I just listed has 3 above average EDGE rushers, an elite DT, a really good MLB, two solid corners and a solid Safety duo.

 

I'm not of the mindset that we should be absolving them of any blame because "injuries" when they still have the ability *if healthy* to put those guys out there. 

 

The defense has been solid all season IMO.  Not great like they would have been but solid.  The offense was just not pulling its weight.  Last night the D had a great game but that was the Jets.  What we need to see is our O play like last night every week.  Maybe even a little better.

 

While I do agree we lost two games when the D gave up game winning drives, the offense put them in position that those game winning drives mattered.  If the offense did anything at all in the rest of the game, they wouldn't have.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

35 minutes ago, CodeMonkey said:

Man the talk sure turns around quick here after beating a team with no OL and a pretty bad QB. From fire everyone to playoffs

But the truth of the matter is, the Bills hold their destiny in their own hands. Iggles, KC, Cowgirls, then finishing up with two AFCE games.  

It's up to them to put up or get some early tee times..

 

 

not hearing that from me.

 

I'm predicting 0 for the next 3 and season over. Enjoyed last night for what it was, a win over a team that has literally no offense. I'm not fooling myself into believing it's anything other than that.

 

[Captain Hindsight]

20 minutes ago, DrBob806 said:

Really? I thoght the NFL schedule was computer-generated on BYE weeks? 

 

It seems that every NFL team's BYE fluctuates on a history. In other words, for "parity sake," it rotates to "early season BYE," then "mid season BYE," then "late season BYE." Never heard of a coach/team influencing a schedule.

Every team submits preferences. I know the Bills in the past wanted more home game in September/October because the late cold games have a hard time selling for example. They did ask the teams playing in London for their bye week preferences too. I think part of that is also the NFL experiments continuing 

[RiotAct]

3 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

The defense has been solid all season IMO.  Not great like they would have been but solid.  The offense was just not pulling its weight.  Last night the D had a great game but that was the Jets.  What we need to see is our O play like last night every week.  Maybe even a little better.

 

While I do agree we lost two games when the D gave up game winning drives, the offense put them in position that those game winning drives mattered.  If the offense did anything at all in the rest of the game, they wouldn't have.

it’s amazing how the defense continues to lose guys yet still find ways to lock down the other team (or at least severely limit the danage).

[DrBob806]

21 minutes ago, mannc said:

Teams that played games overseas were given the option of having their bye the following week or later in the season.  McDermott chose to have it later.

Ok, that makes sense. Wow, a Goodell policy making sense lol.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

40 minutes ago, CodeMonkey said:

Man the talk sure turns around quick here after beating a team with no OL and a pretty bad QB. From fire everyone to playoffs

But the truth of the matter is, the Bills hold their destiny in their own hands. Iggles, KC, Cowgirls, then finishing up with two AFCE games.  

It's up to them to put up or get some early tee times..

 

That’s kind of missing the point imo…even when our team is great that jets defense has had our number and we absolutely dominated them.  That’s the best performance we’ve had against the jets defense in years.  I wouldn’t take too much out of what our defense was able to accomplish for the reasons you said though 

[mannc]

21 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

I wouldn't say its over but yeah we pretty much have no room for mistakes.  If we had the bye after the Jags game how does that change?

Impossible to say, because the entire schedule would have changed, but safe to say that a bye at that point would have been better than no bye until brink of elimination.

[Scott7975]

16 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

And now?

 

OK I checked.  The Bills still do not control their own destiny. They can win out and still not make it and there are a bunch of ways the Bills would not make it even losing just one game.  So as I said after the Broncos loss and still remains true today... our best path is to win the division.  If we don't win the division, we need help.  You keep fighting that, but I am sorry it is true.

Edited November 20, 2023 by Scott7975

[mannc]

Just now, Scott7975 said:

 

OK I checked.  The Bills still do not control their own destiny. They can win out and still not make it and there are a bunch of ways the Bills would not make it even losing just one game.  So as I said after the Broncos loss and still remains true today... our best path is to win the division.  If we don't win the division, we need help.

Go Jets

[Scott7975]

11 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

it’s amazing how the defense continues to lose guys yet still find ways to lock down the other team (or at least severely limit the danage).

 

It really is honestly.  For a lot of flack that McD gets including from me, he actually is running a decent defense considering all the injuries.

4 minutes ago, mannc said:

Impossible to say, because the entire schedule would have changed, but safe to say that a bye at that point would have been better than no bye until brink of elimination.

 

I don't think that is safe to say at all.  It's only safe to say if you can find reason for it and so far you haven't convinced me.

[SCBills]

13 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

That’s kind of missing the point imo…even when our team is great that jets defense has had our number and we absolutely dominated them.  That’s the best performance we’ve had against the jets defense in years.  I wouldn’t take too much out of what our defense was able to accomplish for the reasons you said though 

This is where I’m at.  
 

Do I think our defense is back to an elite unit because of that game?… no.  More a product of the opponent. 
 

However, the Jets came into that game with every intention of winning and getting themselves firmly in the playoff race with, apparently, Aaron Rodgers coming back.  
 

We rendered that discussion pointless this morning after our most dominant performance against them in recent memory.  
 

Offenses don’t just do that to the Jets defense.   Even when their offense continually lets them down, they stay in games.  They don’t typically get rocked like that.

[Scott7975]

2 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Offenses don’t just do that to the Jets defense.   Even when their offense continually lets them down, they stay in games.  They don’t typically get rocked like that.

 

This is true.  Only teams that came close to our score was the Cowboys (30) and the Chargers (27.)  You also can't tell me that we couldn't have scored more points if we needed to. We ran the ball 36 times and knelt the ball twice.

[ColoradoBills]

14 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Miami doesn’t look very good either so there’s still a division win path…their tough stretch doesn’t hit until the final three games though so it could look like they have things locked up then get tight in a hurry 

 

I don’t really buy the nyt algorithm,  the Steelers do not pass the eye test.  I’d be shocked if they make it 

 

One week at a time.  This is the time of the year when things start changing after every week.

 

I do like that Miami has to finish the year playing Dallas, Ravens (in Baltimore) and the Bills.

[mannc]

20 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

 

I don't think that is safe to say at all.  It's only safe to say if you can find reason for it and so far you haven't convinced me.

I guess if you don’t believe byes have any value then you won’t be convinced…

[Scott7975]

2 minutes ago, mannc said:

I guess if you don’t believe byes have any value then you won’t be convinced…

 

They do have value.  I never disputed that.  You just have yet to show me that taking a bye after London vs taking one during the most important and toughest stretch of the season would change anything.  You have yet to show me that it is better.

Edited November 20, 2023 by Scott7975

[zow2]

I think the best path for the Bills starts with an Eagles win tonight.  We want to play them coming off a huge emotional revenge win over the Chiefs.  The Bills may catch Philly having a KC and MNF hangover.  

[billsfan89]

Gotta take care of the Pats and Chargers, that gets you to 8 wins at a minimum you need to go 2-2 in the more “difficult” stretch of games which is possible and that gets you to 10-7 which should put you in wild card contention and if one of those wins in the “difficult” stretch comes against the Fins you are in contention for the division. 
 

Right now your best bet is to take care of the Eagles which esp away will not be easy but to be the man you gotta beat the man.

[RiotAct]

1 hour ago, Scott7975 said:

 

This is true.  Only teams that came close to our score was the Cowboys (30) and the Chargers (27.)  You also can't tell me that we couldn't have scored more points if we needed to. We ran the ball 36 times and knelt the ball twice.

yup - we left 4 points on the table explicitly (missed XP by Bass and kneel-downs to end the game instead of a FG try).

[buffblue]

Playing around with the New York Times simulator, the Bills still only have ~60 percent chance to make the postseason with various combinations of victories in 4 of the final 6. That number dips (to ~50 percent) if you count Miami as one of the 2 losses. Glad we're still alive after yesterday, but this is going to be a difficult road with plenty of help most likely needed.

[Warcodered]

1 hour ago, Scott7975 said:

 

OK I checked.  The Bills still do not control their own destiny. They can win out and still not make it and there are a bunch of ways the Bills would not make it even losing just one game.  So as I said after the Broncos loss and still remains true today... our best path is to win the division.  If we don't win the division, we need help.  You keep fighting that, but I am sorry it is true.

I feel like there has to be something wrong with your math that a 12-5 team would miss the playoffs are you sure you're not missing teams that would have to either lose or tie in matchups?

Edited November 20, 2023 by Warcodered

[Logic]

I'm sticking with my prediction, no matter how overly optimistic it may seem:

Bills go into week 18 only needing to beat the Dolphins to secure the 7th seed. The Dolphins, having already secured the 2nd seed and with nothing to play for, pull the starters early and the Bills win.

Bills return to Miami the following week for the Saturday night game of Wild Card Weekend.

 

[Scott7975]

7 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

I feel like there has to be something wrong with your math that a 12-5 team would miss the playoffs are you sure you're not missing teams that would have to either lose or tie in matchups?

 

Im not using math.  Im using the playoff simulator.  There are other teams that also can make 12-5 and we dont hold tie breakers.  Our conference record is the second worst in the conference.

Edited November 20, 2023 by Scott7975

[LabattBlue]

If the Bills miss the playoffs, there will be plenty of pointing at terrible losses to NYJ, DEN, NE & JAX. 

[pennstate10]

5 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Im not using math.  Im using the playoff simulator.  There are other teams that also can make 12-5 and we dont hold tie breakers.  Our conference record is the second worst in the conference.

I don’t think a 12-5 team has ever missed the playoffs. 
 

Not saying it’s impossible but it’s highly unlikely. That would also mean the dolphins had at minimum 4 losses and Bills would have head to head. 
 

I think 11-6 Bills team has high likelihood of making playoffs, and a 10-7 team is probably around 50-50. 
 

[Scott7975]

13 minutes ago, pennstate10 said:

I don’t think a 12-5 team has ever missed the playoffs. 
 

Not saying it’s impossible but it’s highly unlikely. That would also mean the dolphins had at minimum 4 losses and Bills would have head to head. 
 

I think 11-6 Bills team has high likelihood of making playoffs, and a 10-7 team is probably around 50-50. 
 

 

Well that wasn't the point.  I've said this at least 3 times now... All I said was the Bills do not control their own destiny.  That is 100% true.  I have proven that before this weeks games and after this weeks games.  Someone told me they do.  So I had prove they don't... which they don't.

 

Unlikely, yes.  Its also unlikely the Bills win out.  If the Dolphins had 4 losses then the Bills would likely win the division.  That was my whole point since my other thread... the best path to the playoffs is the Bills winning the division.  Its very hard to get a WC this year because all the AFC teams have practically the same record this late in the season.

 

It is not a high likelihood.  Many teams can finish with that record and the Bills hold almost no tie breakers.  That would also mean the Bills only lost 1 game in this stretch which is also not a high likelihood.  Possible, sure.  High likelihood... I would not say that.

[Bills fan since 87]

ESPN playoff machine is up.  

 

I'm not a fan so much of the simulators that show percentages.  I prefer this one as it shows the actual playoff matchups as you pick games.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

[BuffaloBaumer]

32 minutes ago, Bills fan since 87 said:

ESPN playoff machine is up.  

 

I'm not a fan so much of the simulators that show percentages.  I prefer this one as it shows the actual playoff matchups as you pick games.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

This is going to be harder than I thought. I was relatively generous and the Bills still did not crack the top 7

[Scott7975]

43 minutes ago, Bills fan since 87 said:

ESPN playoff machine is up.  

 

I'm not a fan so much of the simulators that show percentages.  I prefer this one as it shows the actual playoff matchups as you pick games.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

 

Yes, thats the one I been using

10 minutes ago, BuffaloBaumer said:

This is going to be harder than I thought. I was relatively generous and the Bills still did not crack the top 7

 

That is what I been saying.  People giving us a 2 game cushion don't get it.  They think because the browns, pitts, and bengals all beat each other up that it will take them out but that is not necessarily the case nor are those the only teams in contention for the spots.  I am not even saying we can't get a WC.  Just that it will be really tough to do so with our remaining schedule and that we actually don't control our own destiny at this point.

Edited November 20, 2023 by Scott7975

[zow2]

9 minutes ago, BuffaloBaumer said:

This is going to be harder than I thought. I was relatively generous and the Bills still did not crack the top 7

 

I'm grasping but so far Miami has won all their games that they were expected to win.  I refuse to believe they are good enough to win ALL those type of games.  In the NFL, even the above average to good teams lose games they are expected to win. Heck, Buffalo has lost 3 of them already (@Jets, @NE, Denver).

So I'm hoping Miami gets picked off by someone unexpected,,,,and Buffalo can manage to stay within a game.  Then the final game vs Miami would be for the Division.

[TheWei44]

Although we don't technically control our own destiny, if we win out, I saw chances of us missing the playoffs is <1%.  So (almost) control our own destiny!  See PlayoffStatus.com