Kincaid Was Great Against the Pats* - And It Could Have Been Even Better

[sven233]

There were not a lot of bright spots in the game yesterday, but Kincaid was certainly one of them.  We've all been waiting for the game where he breaks out and finally becomes the weapon we know he can be.  His game against the Pats* was fantastic on first watch, but was even better when looking at the All-22 film.  And you know what?  As good as he was yesterday, he was so close to being even more dominant if Allen would have seen him earlier on a couple of routes.

 

I have been asking to see him featured more in this offense because I know what he is capable of watching his college film.  But, up until this game, for whatever reason, his route tree has bee kind of limited and they haven't been letting him do the things that can make him a true weapon in this offense.  Everything he was running until yesterday seemed to be outside the numbers as more of an outlet than anything else.  Sure, you would see the occasional stick route in the middle of the field, but nothing on the move.  Yesterday, while he still had those routes, we finally got to see a little more.  While he isn't running right up the seams and taking the top off defenses yet, hopefully this is a sign that may be coming at some point because he really can stretch the field vertically.  But in this game, we did see some variety.  He worked some over routes, stick routes, and some Texas routes and he made himself not only a viable outlet for Allen, but a true #2 weapon for Allen for the first time this season. 

 

You could make the argument that he was maybe our best weapon on offense yesterday and there is certainly a lot to build on.  And, as I said above, as good of a game as he had yesterday, it was so close to being even better if Allen would have found him in the structure of the plays a couple more times.  He is the best TE on this team and, going forward, I hope the coaching staff finally realizes what they have in him because he is the one player on offense that could legitimately develop into that consistent second weapon we need on offense.  Outside of Diggs, I truly believe he is our second best overall route runner and may have the best hands on the team.  And, on top of that, over half of his yardage yesterday came after the catch which hardly anyone on this team has the ability to do.  There is so much untapped potential here and here's hoping yesterday opened the coaching staff's eyes and makes them realize he needs to be featured even more in this offense.  Him continuing to get the ball at a higher rate will eventually help this offense become more efficient.  The guys at Cover 1 do a great job with these featured breakdowns, so be sure to check out the film.  It is a really good watch and will leave you wanting more focus on Kincaid going forward.

 

 

[boyst]

good for the individul kincaid.

 

but why did our OC only choose to feature him on these plays? why wait until now? why is it that dorsey seems to fixate on doing one thing and then revert to running cook? is it mcd calling for this? is there something going on? why did we try to control the tempo of the game and choose to run it repeatedly with cook when down and needing points?

 

back on point - it is great we featured kincaid early but josh was not taking chances down field on other opportunities and missed at least two deeper shots (one to diggs, and one to davis) that a qb of his calibre must make. these passes went to kincaid each and every time for some reason and i want to know why? why do we only focus one week on a specific idea? it makes us predictable and everything is telegraphed. it is beating us.

 

the video above isn't the entire gameplan or the strategy of the game which is why things like this are dangerous. erik turner and his team can be downright irresponsible.

[Nephilim17]

I only saw the second half but was pleasantly surprised to learn from the Cover 1 video that 50.7% of his yardage was YAC. We don't have a lot of players who do that, especially with shorter routes.

 

I said before that by the end of 2024 he will displace Knox as our number 1 TE; but that prediction may have to be revised to happen in 2023.

[78thealltimegreat]

We desperately need a surehanded second option 

[colin]

i think this kid is a star, if we pass to him 7 times a game he will lead the nfl.

 

the whole EP offense is based around match ups and a lot of that is TE.  i really want him, diggs, cook, and allen to be the whole show.

[bouds]

Josh misses so many easy reads sometimes, I guess it's like that with all QBs but not like we can watch all of them.

 

Dorsey can improve some of the playcalling for sure, but it seems like our answers are out on the field but we're not hitting them often enough, which is why I guess Allen pins a lot of this on execution.

Edited October 23, 2023 by bouds

[Heavy Kevi]

He's coming along nicely.

 

We traditionally don't rely on rookies unless absolutely necessary (elam, benford) and tight ends aren't exactly known for their rookie production.

 

Not to mention Dorsey's offense is disjointed.

 

Even though Dalton didn't get the first down on the 3rd down reception, I liked seeing him really try for it. He seemed to have some rookie moments earlier this year, get mentally rattled, and had been more possession receiver out there. Glad to see him take another step towards being comfortable and having the game slow down a bit for him.

 

He will be a true weapon for Josh and is one of the few players that will survive the roster turnover in the next 2 or so years. The next OC should be adept at utilizing TE or at least slot receivers (where he basically fits right in).

[TFBillsfan]

Josh also overthrew him on a sideline route that would have gone for big yards.  But then again Josh was constantly under duress. 

[Success]

He & Cook give me a lot of optimism for the future.

 

Davis being a no show much of the time really hurts this offense.  We're getting good production from WR1 and TE now..  Harty/Shakir are doing fine at the 3/4 spots.  To have a #2 that doesn't give us 5-6 catches a game consistently really sets us back.

 

[Brand J]

2 minutes ago, bouds said:

Josh misses so many easier throws sometimes, I guess it's like that with all QBs but not like we can watch all of them.

 

Dorsey can improve some of the playcalling for sure, but it seems like our answers are out on the field but we're not hitting them often enough, which is why I guess Allen pins a lot of this on execution.

Dorsey’s offense would look a lot better if the players executed what’s available to them. I’m not into the Dorsey bashing like many here. Could play calls be more innovative and creative? Sure. Does Dorsey need to stop running out of shotgun on 3rd and 1? Definitely. But most of the time plays are there to be made, the players aren’t making them. Even saw a comment yesterday saying the offense needed to be dumbed down for our QB. Like seriously? Throw an accurate pass. Catch the freakin ball. Block the man in front of you. 

[Utah John]

It all starts up front.  Josh had few quiet, clean pockets and when he did get one he wasn't acting like he was sure it would be good.  He didn't get deep into his progressions very often before needing to bail, and then the quick zone beating throws were no longer available.

 

I love Kincaid as a receiver but as a blocker he's, putting it politely, a work in progress.  With shaky O line play, particularly picking up blitzes, the Bills need to keep a RB or TE in to help.  Their best RB (Cook) and their best TE (Kincaid) are not their best pass protectors at those positions.  So Murray and/or Knox are on the field.  (Did you notice that Cook disappeared in the fourth quarter? The Bills needed to pass and putting Cook out for routes would have been great, but the first priority is protecting the QB, so Murray was playing instead.)

37 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:

Dorsey’s offense would look a lot better if the players executed what’s available to them. I’m not into the Dorsey bashing like many here. Could play calls be more innovative and creative? Sure. Does Dorsey need to stop running out of shotgun on 3rd and 1? Definitely. But most of the time plays are there to be made, the players aren’t making them. Even saw a comment yesterday saying the offense needed to be dumbed down for our QB. Like seriously? Throw an accurate pass. Catch the freakin ball. Block the man in front of you. 

1.  Throw an accurate pass. Almost always, check.

2.  Catch the freakin ball. Almost always, check.  Very few drops yesterday.  Even Knox caught passes.

3.  Block the man in front of you. DING DING DING We have a winner

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Nephilim17 said:

I only saw the second half but was pleasantly surprised to learn from the Cover 1 video that 50.7% of his yardage was YAC. We don't have a lot of players who do that, especially with shorter routes.

 

I said before that by the end of 2024 he will displace Knox as our number 1 TE; but that prediction may have to be revised to happen in 2023.

He had rac? 
 

In da past, I had lurnt on dis site dat kin caid catches den falls down

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

8 targets 8 receptions for 75 yards and looked masterful during the 2nd half. You can really see why Kincaid was drafted in the 1st, he has a fluidity to his route running that is very rare for a guy of his stature. You can also see the chemistry between him and Allen starting to grow. I’m really hoping Dorsey starts to make Kincaid more of a focal point in this sputtering offense. I also second that for James Cook. I feel like each of these guys has potential to be superstars in this league. I love Knox and he’s a solid TE, but Kincaid is the future and jumps off the screen. Whatever we have been doing hasn’t been working so why not give a high ceiling rookie more playing time? He’s been making the most out of every down and proved that he belongs on the field. 

[Big Turk]

Just now, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

8 targets 8 receptions for 75 yards and looked masterful during the 2nd half. You can really see why Kincaid was drafted in the 1st, he has a fluidity to his route running that is very rare for a guy of his stature. You can also see the chemistry between him and Allen starting to grow. I’m really hoping Dorsey starts to make Kincaid more of a focal point in this sputtering offense. I also second that for James Cook. I feel like each of these guys has potential to be superstars in this league. I love Knox and he’s a solid TE, but Kincaid is the future and jumps off the screen. Whatever we have been doing hasn’t been working so why not give a high ceiling rookie more playing time? He’s been making the most out of every down and proved that he belongs on the field. 

 

Now they need to start working him up the seams more like the Lions do LaPorta. There is no reason in the world why he can't run those routes, the dude is exceptional in that regard.

Edited October 23, 2023 by Big Turk

[HurlyBurly51]

He was open all day underneath, unfortunately Josh opted to look downfield on too many occasions.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

Just now, Big Turk said:

 

Now they need to start working him up the seams more like the Lions do LaPorta.

Agreed, although Allen’s deep ball accuracy has been suspect lately. 

[pocoboy]

Really need to have a WR option that allows them to use Kincaid as the TE on 3rd down and relegate Knox to the bench...at least on those important passing downs.

[Dick_Cheney]

1 minute ago, pocoboy said:

Really need to have a WR option that allows them to use Kincaid as the TE on 3rd down and relegate Knox to the bench...at least on those important passing downs.

Yup. I know we have several problems at the moment, but having a genuine #2 receiver would help things a lot more than I think some folks realize.

[NewEra]

HoF and elite slot WR just like that.  Just f******* use him.  

[Augie]

This is about Kincaid, so I won’t beat the WR #2 horse to death. Kincaid has 25 catches on I believe 27 targets. More targets and we might find WR #2 is not as critical as it seems at times. We have weapons, we just need to use them properly. I was happy to see Kincaid get a personal  NFL high 8 targets, and hope it continues like that. He’s fun to watch, and he’s very effective. 

 

 

 

.

Edited October 23, 2023 by Augie

[schoolhouserock]

The way Kincaid prepares his body to run after the catch is very impressive. Most guys that try to look ahead end up dropping balls. I don’t know how Kincaid manages to have the hands he does while also preparing to run during the process of a catch. It’s very special. He has some very nice YAC numbers given the way he has been used so far.

[billsfan89]

2 minutes ago, pocoboy said:

Really need to have a WR option that allows them to use Kincaid as the TE on 3rd down and relegate Knox to the bench...at least on those important passing downs.

 

Shakir's snap count slowly is going up because he is a really reliable receiver who has improved his blocking. Shakir's snap count against the Pats was 24 up 1 from the previous week and up massively from the 7 snaps he took in week 1. He hauled in 4 for 4 for 35 yards against the Pats and before then had 4 catches that were for a TD or key first downs. 

 

Shakir can be a genuinely good slot WR this season. I have liked what I have seen from him all season he just needs more opportunity and if he can get over 25+ snaps a game and 3-5 targets he can produce at a consistent level. It really helped the offense to have more of those "easy" chain-moving catches or catches that set up 2nd and short or 3rd and short situations. 

 

I think the offense has enough talent around Josh the coaching just needs to use it properly. I would still look to add more pop at WR, Mooney from Chicago would be a solid realistic target that would add speed and versatility to the WR group. But if everyone on offense is healthy as is the talent is there around Josh. 

 

Diggs is a stud WR1, Kincaid and Shakir are good reliable short to mid-range WR's, Knox is a good blocker and a nice supplemental target, Gabe Davis adds a downfield presence and is a good blocker, Hardy is a speedy WR who adds gadget ability and Cook and the RB's are getting it done both on the ground and can add to the passing attack. The offensive line is a lot better this season with McGovern and Torrence plus Brown is less of a liability (although he is still the "weak link"). While I wouldn't mind adding one more weapon I really think this is on the coaching and the players to get it done. 

[BearNorth]

Masterful is Kelce, 12 catches, 13 targets, 179 yards and a TD.  Nice game for the rookie, but still a ways to go.

[Buffalo716]

44 minutes ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

Agreed, although Allen’s deep ball accuracy has been suspect lately. 

All deep balls are not made equal LOL..

 

Josh is chucking balls 60 yards down the field that are a little off

 

The NFL constitutes a deep ball as 15 yards down field.. Josh is the best thrower of the football 15 to 20 yards down field in the NFL

 

And you can throw seam balls 15-20 yards down the seam... It isn't 50 lol

 

Josh is literally fine ... It's everybody else who's not rallying around him

 

 

Edited October 23, 2023 by Buffalo716

[Matt_In_NH]

On the season Kincaid has 25 receptions in 27 targets!  That is a very large percentage for a TE.   Knox on the other hand has 15 receptions on 28 targets.  Throw more to Kincaid than Knox moving forward.

[NewEra]

8 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

Masterful is Kelce, 12 catches, 13 targets, 179 yards and a TD.  Nice game for the rookie, but still a ways to go.

A ways to go before he’s a top 2 TE ever….. lol

[Buffalo Junction]

1 hour ago, pocoboy said:

Really need to have a WR option that allows them to use Kincaid as the TE on 3rd down and relegate Knox to the bench...at least on those important passing downs.

That seems to be more of an OT problem than a WR problem. 

[colin]

if the o just features cook and kinkaid, along w diggs and a runner in allen, it isn't possible to stop it consistently.

 

 

[Charles Romes]

Try to unload Knox for a third. Could be done if there is an Osweilerian salary eat. 

[BearNorth]

Just announced Knox is going to have wrist surgery and will be out indefinitely.  Could explain his catch issues.

[BillsFooteball]

3 hours ago, BearNorth said:

Just announced Knox is going to have wrist surgery and will be out indefinitely.  Could explain his catch issues.

For his career?!  

[BearNorth]

9 minutes ago, BillsFooteball said:

For his career?!  

Unfortunately no.  Wonder if he broke it on his "angry run"