Bills vs Jags Postgame thread

[newcam2012]

5 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I agree.  It was ugly, injuries, penalties.  I agree with a lot of what's being said.  

 

I don't like Josh's decision making.   Now he's afraid to run, and he passes up 10 yard runs for first fowns and throws prayers.  Two incomplete to Knox and one great catch by Davis, for example.  He had easy runs on all three.  

 

For me, it was all about Lawrence. He was great.  Always knew where to go with the ball, and incredibly accurate.  Deep ball up the right sideline on the last drive was incredible.  

 

Also, I wouldn't have done the onside kick.  You're not going to get the ball there, and the lost field position was going to hurt.  It did.  

 

It was all round ugly. 

 

 

I agree. It feels like the offense is really missing an important weapon which is Allen's legs. Imho, it's easier for the defenses to defend the Bills when they don't have to worry about his running 

[BillsFan130]

15 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

To be fair to Elam, the guy hasn’t had any in-game action, and was then left on an island 1-on-1 with Ridley (and without a lot of pressure from our D-line). Just a recipe for disaster. 

I understand . But just a bad look in my opinion if you’re getting benched for a practice squad player

[DrDawkinstein]

Just now, newcam2012 said:

I agree. It feels like the offense is really missing an important weapon which is Allen's legs. Imho, it's easier for the defenses to defend the Bills when they don't have to worry about his running 

 

Of course. It isnt even your opinion. It's simple math. It ruins our numbers advantage. It used to be we were +1 on them and the D would have to decide to leave someone open and watch Josh, or let Josh run all over them as a free runner. Taking that away gave the JAx D a huge advantage yesterday.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Of course. It isnt even your opinion. It's simple math. It ruins our numbers advantage. It used to be we were +1 on them and the D would have to decide to leave someone open and watch Josh, or let Josh run all over them as a free runner. Taking that away gave the JAx D a huge advantage yesterday.

 

Yeah, I don't really like them telling him not to scramble. Forget the designed runs, but let the man use his legs if he feels the need.

 

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

10 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

The score was 11-7. We didnt need to take big risks or make one big play.

 

We took that penalty on 2nd down to make it 2nd and 15 and apparently decided that was enough to give up the drive. Because on 2nd down we went deep, and then on 3rd down we went deep. The old Dorsey special. Take low percentage deep shots then punt. Or apparently, take deep shots because they are as good as punts.

 

Just gain your 5-7 yards on simple underneath plays and MOVE THE CHAINS.

 

Heck, make it 4 down territory and just get 5 yards each play.

 

Throwing the ball away to the other team on 3rd down isnt smart. It's an act of desperation that equates to giving up.

 

Sorry, but you could not be more wrong on this. 

 

On 2nd and 15 Josh threw it to the chains on a broken play. Who considers 15 yards a deep shot ? What good options did he have on that play?

 

Now that he's facing a 3rd and 15 from his own 41 it's time to take a chance. Can wait and see if someone gets open near the chain (they didn't) and then chuck it deep. It IS desparate, but it's far from giving up. I'd argue a dump off or throw away would be giving up by Allen to try and preserve the box score stat line. At least there's a chance of a deep throw working (and honestly Stef should've caught it). 

 

If Josh took a dumpoff on 3rd and 15 we'd be calling him captain checkdown. There's about a 0 % chance Cook would be breaking that for a 1st down. 

 

 

[DrDawkinstein]

3 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

Sorry, but you could not be more wrong on this. 

 

On 2nd and 15 Josh threw it to the chains on a broken play. Who considers 15 yards a deep shot ? What good options did he have on that play?

 

Now that he's facing a 3rd and 15 from his own 41 it's time to take a chance. Can wait and see if someone gets open near the chain (they didn't) and then chuck it deep. It IS desparate, but it's far from giving up. I'd argue a dump off or throw away would be giving up by Allen to try and preserve the box score stat line. At least there's a chance of a deep throw working (and honestly Stef should've caught it). 

 

If Josh took a dumpoff on 3rd and 15 we'd be calling him captain checkdown. There's about a 0 % chance Cook would be breaking that for a 1st down. 

 

 

 

Shouldnt have even been thrown to the chains on 2nd down. Call a play that can pick up 5-7 yards, Dorsey. Again, bad play calling, bad execution.

 

Now you're in 3rd and 7-10, and what should be 4 down territory.

 

No dump off on 3rd and 15 because we shouldnt have been in 3rd and 15.

[BananaB]

28 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

To be fair to Elam, the guy hasn’t had any in-game action, and was then left on an island 1-on-1 with Ridley (and without a lot of pressure from our D-line). Just a recipe for disaster. 

Why wasn’t Dane moved to Ridley. He’s the guy who has been activated, they obviously think he’s the better player. Just a head scratcher. 

[newcam2012]

12 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Of course. It isnt even your opinion. It's simple math. It ruins our numbers advantage. It used to be we were +1 on them and the D would have to decide to leave someone open and watch Josh, or let Josh run all over them as a free runner. Taking that away gave the JAx D a huge advantage yesterday.

It's crazy how Allen has stopped running. The offense is not the same with him being a pocket passer. 

[DrDawkinstein]

Just now, newcam2012 said:

It's crazy how Allen has stopped running. The offense is not the same with him being a pocket passer. 

 

Because as you pointed out, Defenses can play us totally differently now. We've neutered our best weapon.

[Buffalo03]

3 hours ago, boyst said:

we would like to think they'd have made a difference but we do not know for sure.

 

what we do know is that we got embarrassed yesterday. 

Yes but we were also operating with a defense down 4 starters. That makes a difference. It irritates me when I hear "no excuses" when we are missing almost half of one side of the ball. One player is one thing. 4 players is a different story. Kaiir Elam is a major problem. The Jags probably don't convert a bunch of 3rd and longs with Tre White out there. Or possibly even Benford out there. That stuff makes a difference 

[All_Pro_Bills]

29 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

The score was 11-7. We didnt need to take big risks or make one big play.

 

We took that penalty on 2nd down to make it 2nd and 15 and apparently decided that was enough to give up the drive. Because on 2nd down we went deep, and then on 3rd down we went deep. The old Dorsey special. Take low percentage deep shots then punt. Or apparently, take deep shots because they are as good as punts.

 

Just gain your 5-7 yards on simple underneath plays and MOVE THE CHAINS.

 

Heck, make it 4 down territory and just get 5 yards each play.

 

Throwing the ball away to the other team on 3rd down isnt smart. It's an act of desperation that equates to giving up.

I re-watched the 4th quarter interception play a couple times.  The only thing I might disagree with is I think this one falls directly on Allen and not Dorsey.  The Bills also burned a time before the play as the play clock ran down to zero.  Josh had 2 other easy options on the play.  Knox open in the left flat but the better option was to Murray at the numbers on the right at the Bills 43 with the nearest Jags defenders way down field around the Bills 38 yard line.  They were either unconcerned about the underneath throws or concluded that the throw was going deep. 

 

Allen has a clear line of sight to Murray as he's looking up the field to Diggs.  Maybe the check down doesn't get the first down but it sets up a potential 4th and short situation.  As Diggs is double covered and the ball is slightly under-thrown it wasn't a great decision. 

 

The check down was the high percentage play considering the circumstances.  The score was 11-7 and a 4 point deficit with almost a quarter left shouldn't have factored into taking that risk.  I hate to say its a problem when a player is too talented but that seems to be Josh's problem at times.  Our QB has so much confidence in his ability that it gets in the way of his decision making process.  A less skilled QB would have taken the 10 yard underneath throw and played the percentages in keeping the drive alive. 

Edited October 9, 2023 by All_Pro_Bills

[BillzFreak]

14 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

Yeah, I don't really like them telling him not to scramble. Forget the designed runs, but let the man use his legs if he feels the need.

 

Oh with the injuries on defense now the offense HAS to produce. So whatever cuffs they put on Josh at least have to be loosened. We will still have a decent defense but I doubt it can sustain the offensive side of the ball being as inept as it was yesterday.

[DrDawkinstein]

4 minutes ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

I re-watched the 4th quarter interception play a couple times.  The only thing I might disagree with is I think this one falls directly on Allen and not Dorsey.  The Bills also burned a time before the play as the play clock ran down to zero.  Josh had 2 other easy options on the play.  Knox open in the left flat but the better option was to Murray at the numbers on the right at the Bills 43 with the nearest Jags defenders way down field around the Bills 38 yard line.  They were either unconcerned about the underneath throws or concluded that the throw as going deep. 

 

Allen has a clear line of sight to Murray as he's looking up the field to Diggs.  Maybe the check down doesn't get the first down but it sets up a potential 4th and short situation.  As Diggs is double covered and the ball is slightly under-thrown it wasn't a great decision. 

 

The check down was the high percentage play considering the circumstances.  The score was 11-7 and a 4 point deficit with almost a quarter left shouldn't have factored into taking that risk.  I hate to say its a problem when a player is too talented but that seems to be Josh's problem at times.  Our QB has so much confidence in his ability that it gets in the way of his decision making process.  A less skilled QB would have taken the 10 yard underneath throw and played the percentages in keeping the drive alive. 

 

Exactly, thank you.

 

It went right back to the crap we were pulling at the end of last season. Predetermined low percentage deep balls.

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, Process said:

 

 

This is so frustrating. I'd be curious to know WHEN our first snap under Center actually was because it felt like. It was well into the 2nd quarter.

 

Is Dorsey blind as to how effective Allen is under Center?

[boyst]

13 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said:

Yes but we were also operating with a defense down 4 starters. That makes a difference. It irritates me when I hear "no excuses" when we are missing almost half of one side of the ball. One player is one thing. 4 players is a different story. Kaiir Elam is a major problem. The Jags probably don't convert a bunch of 3rd and longs with Tre White out there. Or possibly even Benford out there. That stuff makes a difference 

even with those starters our gameplan against a lesser team was pure poop. we did not do anything specific to their team to stop them and had a lousy performance in strategy and football without regard to players.

[BillzFreak]

3 minutes ago, boyst said:

even with those starters our gameplan against a lesser team was pure poop. we did not do anything specific to their team to stop them and had a lousy performance in strategy and football without regard to players.

But both things can be true here. The game plan stunk and losing the players made it worse. Players make plays, and good players can mask even the ugliest of game plans. 

[CincyBillsFan]

3 hours ago, mannc said:

Correct.  There were no injuries on offense. We scored 7 non-garbage time points, punted on six straight possessions and lost a game where we had a two-turnover advantage (Josh’s arm punt wasn’t great but shouldn’t count as a turnover). 

Those were not garbage time points the game was still in doubt.  Garbage time points are when you're trailing 34 - 3 and score two late TD's to make it 34 - 17.

 

[zow2]

43 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

The score was 11-7. We didnt need to take big risks or make one big play.

 

 

Just gain your 5-7 yards on simple underneath plays and MOVE THE CHAINS.

 

Heck, make it 4 down territory and just get 5 yards each play.

 

Throwing the ball away to the other team on 3rd down isnt smart. It's an act of desperation that equates to giving up.

 

Watching the 49ers this is what they do all the time.  Short 5-10 yard passes and YAC.  They constantly scheme guys open for quick passes.

 

Also, seeing Josh scramble around the edge, having the ability to get a first down, and then stop and throw a dumb pass to a covered guy, has to stop.  Just finish the scramble and get the first down and go out of bounds.  

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, zow2 said:

 

Watching the 49ers this is what they do all the time.  Short 5-10 yard passes and YAC.  They constantly scheme guys open for quick passes.

 

Also, seeing Josh scramble around the edge, having the ability to get a first down, and then stop and throw a dumb pass to a covered guy, has to stop.  Just finish the scramble and get the first down and go out of bounds.  

 

It's literally what we did the first 5 games of last year, and the last 3 games we played this year (LV, WFT, MIA). And then for some reason, whenever we get even a little rattled, we completely abandon it. Even when we are only down by 4 with plenty of time left.

 

We can do it, we do do it. Which makes it even more frustrating when we out-think ourselves.

 

And completely agreed on the scramble vs throwing. Just go get 5 yards and move the chains.

 

 

[CincyBillsFan]

5 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I agree.  It was ugly, injuries, penalties.  I agree with a lot of what's being said.  

 

I don't like Josh's decision making.   Now he's afraid to run, and he passes up 10 yard runs for first fowns and throws prayers.  Two incomplete to Knox and one great catch by Davis, for example.  He had easy runs on all three.  

 

For me, it was all about Lawrence. He was great.  Always knew where to go with the ball, and incredibly accurate.  Deep ball up the right sideline on the last drive was incredible.  

 

Also, I wouldn't have done the onside kick.  You're not going to get the ball there, and the lost field position was going to hurt.  It did.  

 

It was all round ugly. 

 

 

What evidence do you have that Allen is "afraid" t run?  That's pretty harsh considering that the entire Bills organization and 99% of the media spent the off season claiming that Allen's career would be short if he kept running.  It's clear that they have coached the running out of Allen to some extent. Whether this is wise or not remains to be seen.  One game doesn't tell the story.

 

Look at it this way, the Bills are 3 - 2 and in the thick of the AFC race for a 4th straight Division Title and home field advantage through the playoffs.  It is going to be a long & brutal season of attrition.  But the only injury that would eliminate the Bills as a playoff team would be for Allen to go down for an extended period of time. 

 

For the Bills Super Bowl window to remain open for the next decade Allen must stay healthy over the long haul.  He can't go the way of Cam Newton because the Bills are going to have to keep extending his contract far into the future to free up money. 

 

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

24 minutes ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

I re-watched the 4th quarter interception play a couple times.  The only thing I might disagree with is I think this one falls directly on Allen and not Dorsey.  The Bills also burned a time before the play as the play clock ran down to zero.  Josh had 2 other easy options on the play.  Knox open in the left flat but the better option was to Murray at the numbers on the right at the Bills 43 with the nearest Jags defenders way down field around the Bills 38 yard line.  They were either unconcerned about the underneath throws or concluded that the throw was going deep. 

 

Allen has a clear line of sight to Murray as he's looking up the field to Diggs.  Maybe the check down doesn't get the first down but it sets up a potential 4th and short situation.  As Diggs is double covered and the ball is slightly under-thrown it wasn't a great decision. 

 

The check down was the high percentage play considering the circumstances.  The score was 11-7 and a 4 point deficit with almost a quarter left shouldn't have factored into taking that risk.  I hate to say its a problem when a player is too talented but that seems to be Josh's problem at times.  Our QB has so much confidence in his ability that it gets in the way of his decision making process.  A less skilled QB would have taken the 10 yard underneath throw and played the percentages in keeping the drive alive. 

 

Diggs wasn't double covered that play? Unless you're counting the defender that's 10+ yards away from him 

 

 

[DrDawkinstein]

5 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

What evidence do you have that Allen is "afraid" t run? 

 

 

Because he has completely stopped. Whether that has been coached out of him or what, you can say he is "afraid" to run (maybe doesnt want to get in trouble). It's not that he is afraid of contact.

[Shaw66]

7 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

What evidence do you have that Allen is "afraid" t run?  That's pretty harsh considering that the entire Bills organization and 99% of the media spent the off season claiming that Allen's career would be short if he kept running.  It's clear that they have coached the running out of Allen to some extent. Whether this is wise or not remains to be seen.  One game doesn't tell the story.

 

Look at it this way, the Bills are 3 - 2 and in the thick of the AFC race for a 4th straight Division Title and home field advantage through the playoffs.  It is going to be a long & brutal season of attrition.  But the only injury that would eliminate the Bills as a playoff team would be for Allen to go down for an extended period of time. 

 

For the Bills Super Bowl window to remain open for the next decade Allen must stay healthy over the long haul.  He can't go the way of Cam Newton because the Bills are going to have to keep extending his contract far into the future to free up money. 

 

I didn't mean that he is fearful.  I just meant that before he was running too much and taking too many risks.  Now he's not running when he should.  

[CincyBillsFan]

Just now, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Because he has completely stopped. Whether that has been coached out of him or what, you can say he is "afraid" to run (maybe doesnt want to get in trouble). It's not that he is afraid of contact.

I think Allen has bought into the idea that he can't operate with a run first, pass 2nd mind set as he has the last few years.  Check out a play from the Dolphins game where Allen is running towards the LOS and has a real chance to get the 1st down with his legs but decides to pass the ball to Shakir (I think) who was running a crossing pattern.  The pass would ave been a bigger gainer then the run and of course would have sparred Allen the hit.  Of course the pass which was perfectly placed was dropped which is another story.

 

[CincyBillsFan]

Whether a pass first/run second approach will work best for Allen and the offense will only be seen in the fullness of a season. So far Allen has tossed a couple of red zone TD's using this approach. One game, particularly one as weird as yesterday, isn't enough data to decide one way or another.

 

I also think the point in the season impacts the decision.  Late in the season when a division title is on the line or in the playoffs it makes more sense for Allen to be more reckless in his runs. During the 1st half the season?  I'm not so sure.

 

Baltimore is going through the same thing but in more extreme fashion with Jackson.  They're trying to get him to be pass first/run second. You could argue that their two losses this season was because of that.  And while Jackson is a better runner but not as good of a passer as Allen it's clear that the Ravens are concerned about the long term viability of Jackson if he continues as a run first/pas second QB. After all Jackson has been injured towards the end of the last two seasons effectively eliminating Baltimore's chances at making the playoffs one year or advancing in the layoffs the next season.

 

 

[mannc]

30 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Those were not garbage time points the game was still in doubt.  Garbage time points are when you're trailing 34 - 3 and score two late TD's to make it 34 - 17.

 

How about “desperation-time points”?

[CincyBillsFan]

Just now, mannc said:

How about “desperation-time points”?

Fine but the bottom line is that the last thing the Jags wanted was for the Bills to score as quickly as they did.  Allen and the O needed to be unleashed much earlier in the game then it was.

 

[Big Turk]

Now the real fun begins...

 

Not only do we have some major injuries we already know about, now we get to see all the players who played the whole game and will be DNP this week and likely out for the following game on top of them.

 

Luckily we are playing a team that has scored only 3 offensive points in the first half of games this year.  Bills should be up by about 4 TDs going into the 2nd half.

 

Edited October 9, 2023 by Big Turk

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

7 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Now the real fun begins...

 

Not only do we have some major injuries we already know about, now we get to see all the players who played the whole game and will be DNP this week and likely out for the following game on top of them.

 

Luckily we are playing a team that has scored only 3 offensive points in the first half of games this year.  Bills should be up by about 4 TDs going into the 2nd half.

 

 

I haven't seen an updated on Daniel Jones injury, but could you imagine this board if we lose to the Tyrod Taylor led Giants ? 

[Big Turk]

4 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

I haven't seen an updated on Daniel Jones injury, but could you imagine this board if we lose to the Tyrod Taylor led Giants ? 

 

We likely would see the 56 yards passing in the 4th quarter Tyrod we all know and love.

[All_Pro_Bills]

49 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

Diggs wasn't double covered that play? Unless you're counting the defender that's 10+ yards away from him 

 

 

I stand corrected.  The second defender was closing in on the play when the time the ball arrived.  Given a 4 point deficit and 14+ minutes left on the game clock I still think it was a poor decision.  Josh's talent and confidence are both a big blessing and yet a big curse at times too.  

[DrDawkinstein]

59 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

I think Allen has bought into the idea that he can't operate with a run first, pass 2nd mind set as he has the last few years.  Check out a play from the Dolphins game where Allen is running towards the LOS and has a real chance to get the 1st down with his legs but decides to pass the ball to Shakir (I think) who was running a crossing pattern.  The pass would ave been a bigger gainer then the run and of course would have sparred Allen the hit.  Of course the pass which was perfectly placed was dropped which is another story.

 

 

Yeah, I think the last minute decision to throw it has resulted in a few "dropped" passes. I put dropped in quotes because it's tough to tell what is going on now.

 

Josh starts to run, but then at the last second throws. The WRs are thinking "Do I need to start blocking? Am I adjusting my route because he's scrambling? Is he really going to throw the ball?" And before they even finish that thought the ball is unexpectedly on them. AND not in a great spot because Josh was unsure as well and then flicked a bad ball at the last second.
 

It's just very disjointed and frenetic because of all this changing decisions.

 

Tuck it and ***** run!

 

 

Edited October 9, 2023 by DrDawkinstein

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Yeah, I think the last minute decision to throw it has resulted in a few "dropped" passes. I put dropped in quotes because it's tough to tell what is going on now.

 

Josh starts to run, but then at the last second throws. The WRs are thinking "Do I need to start blocking? Am I adjusting my route because he's scrambling? Is he really going to throw the ball?" And before they even finish that thought the ball is unexpectedly on them.
 

It's just very disjointed and frenetic because of all this changing decisions.

 

Tuck it and ***** run!

For me personally any decision that keeps Allen from running is a win

 

the wideouts practice scramble drills...if they're not ready for a pass once he breaks the pocket thats on them

[DrDawkinstein]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

For me personally any decision that keeps Allen from running is a win

 

the wideouts practice scramble drills...if they're not ready for a pass once he breaks the pocket thats on them

 

Congrats on your win yesterday then.

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Congrats on your win yesterday then.

I mean I will suffer the odd loss if it means injury prevention and career extension

[SCBills]

Travis Etienne literally comes out and says the travel disparity played a part in the game.  

 

Called it a huge advantage for them. 

[GoBills808]

Just now, SCBills said:

Travis Etienne literally comes out and says the travel disparity played a part in the game.  

 

Called it a huge advantage for them. 

just common sense

[Warcodered]

3 hours ago, Process said:

 

 

I mean WTF, like I understand respecting the Jaguars pass rush, but what was Dorsey petrified of it that he needed to probably have the TEs chipping all day and have Josh in shotgun to see anyone coming? Give the O-line a chance don't just surrender that battle from the start.

[Scott7975]

13 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

They should have never been in that position. The Bills were not good on third downs. To be exact, they were 5 for 12 for a clip of 42%. Third down is well known as being the QB down in the NFL. Allen and the completely healthy Bills offense didn't make plays today. That includes Allen.

 

Allen is the least of the Bills offensive problems. However, if Allen doesn't wear his cape the Bills likely won't win vs good teams. The rest of the team isn't that good especially being down Tre, Milano, and Jones. 

 

Thats one away from 50%.  While that does go up and down every week, the top average is 51%.  How many of those 3rd downs were a result from someone dropping the ball, someone not getting to the first down marker after getting the ball? Allen missed some passes sure.  All QBs miss some passes.  His receivers let him down all game long.

13 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

I disagree. I've seen him plenty vocal on the sidelines before. I've seen him talking to his oline men and WRs as well. I've seen her m giving encouragement to his players. 

 

The camera shows a QB on the sideline hardly any time at all.  You have no idea what Josh does or anyone does on the sideline for most of the game.  They show one glimpse of him sitting on the bench and you assume in a 3 hour period that is all he does.  Just stop man.  We didn't lose this game over some mythical pep talk.

Edited October 9, 2023 by Scott7975

[Buffalo03]

2 hours ago, boyst said:

even with those starters our gameplan against a lesser team was pure poop. we did not do anything specific to their team to stop them and had a lousy performance in strategy and football without regard to players.

How can we stop them consistently with 4 missing defensive starters?