The People v. McBeane (Alternatively, comparing SF to BUF since 2017)

[dave mcbride]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Okay, the poll will be:

 

Shanahan/Lynch/Lance/DARNOLD/Purdy

 

vs.

 

McBeane/Allen

 

Why do a poll, let’s look at Super Bowl odds.

 

Oh look. 

Fanduel, BetMGM, DraftKings all have the Bills with better Super Bowl odds than the Niners. Caesar’s has them at the same odds.

 

Vegas must be FILLED with Bills’ fans. Don’t they know the Niners went to the NFCCG that one time? Lmao.

It’s the Niners’ fault they don’t have Josh. 

I do think you should factor in draft-related trades too. It's tough to do this correctly without the trades for Garappolo (huge hit for SF; he was a GOOD player for them -- 38-17 as a starter for them and a career 99.2 rating for SF; when he didn't start, they almost always lost until Purdy came along - https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GaroJi00.htm) and Diggs (another huge hit). SF traded a second for Jimmy G and the Bills a first for Diggs. 

 

I also think they made a great trade for McCaffrey, partly because they had so many picks going into the 2023 draft.

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, PBF81 said:

 

Less with more:  

 

Last three seasons ...

3-0 in the Wild Card Round  (2 of those wins against QBs Thompson and Jones)  

1-2 in the Divisional Round 

0-1 in the Conference Championship Game with the person we're talking about walking the Loss over to Reid on a silver platter at the end of the game.  

A supposed defensive expert allowing an average of 28 PPG, over 31 if we don't count the offensively bereft Pats, in our last four playoff games.  

Beating the Colts w/ Rivers despite being outplayed in that game.  

4-3 overall with two of those wins against marginal playoff teams and both with low-end QBs, and another win while being outplayed by a team with the 9th ranked scoring offense and 10th ranked scoring defense and a 39-year old washed up QB in his last-hurrah season.  

 

Winning a division with QBs like Jones, Fitzpatrick, Tagovailoa whose in and out with injuries like most people go out for wings, Skylar Thompson, Mike White, Zach Wilson, and Sam Darnold is hardly impressive.  It would have been along the lines of tragic had we not been able to do that, which fed directly into those seedings. 

 

Let's see how he does this season, over/under achieves, now that there's finally some competition in the division for the first time in over 20 years.  Brady & Belichick had it easy in that regard too.  

 

 

I see you neglected to mention the best defensive performance by this regime, when the defense won the game vs the Ravens (7th in PPG in the regular season, held to 3 points and forced a pick six to cinch the game).

 

Being in the playoffs almost every year means you are going to have some disappointments. Brady went 10 years without an SB win.

2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I do think you should factor in draft-related trades too. It's tough to do this correctly without the trades for Garappolo (huge hit for SF; he was a GOOD player for them -- 38-17 as a starter for them and a career 99.2 rating for SF; when he didn't start, they almost always lost until Purdy came along - https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GaroJi00.htm) and Diggs (another huge hit). SF traded a second for Jimmy G and the Bills a first for Diggs. 

 

I also think they made a great trade for McCaffrey, partly because they had so many picks going into the 2023 draft.

I should have but I wrote a line on Tanner Vallejo and I thought “what am I even doing rn”

[AuntieEm]

17 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

As much as I love what Josh has done thus far, when you have OJ, Bruce, and Kelly there is no way you can say he’s the best draft pick in franchise history at this point in his career.

Yea I love Josh and I hope he still climbs up to his full potential but if I'm gonna pick best draft pick in Bills history I'm going with Bruce.  He's arguably the best pass rusher in nfl history --  just above a couple of other NFL legends.  

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, ngbills said:

The 49ers have built an all around better team. You can harp on them for missing on picking Josh, but that is over-rewarding getting one pick right. We are lucky Mayfield and Darnold didnt drop in the draft or the story would be that we passed on Mahomes in 2017 and took one of those guys in 2018...ouch. 

It’s the most important pick to get right. Did the drought not teach you anything?

 

Like you said, they have an overall better team. Our Vegas odds of winning the Super Bowl are still higher. Why? Because of Josh Allen. That’s why. 
 

You are understating that pick. 

[GoBills808]

That said if all these guys got let go the Niners are getting jobs first

[machine gun kelly]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Topic. Title.

 

I'm gonna put some work in today boys and girls, so strap in.

 

To start: why am I comparing the Niners to the Bills?  Well our regime started in 2017, as did theirs. They have an offensive coach, we have a defensive coach. And neither team has won the big one.  So let's get started.

 

HC/GM records:

 

Shanny/Lynch: 52-46

McBeane: 62-35

 

Losing seasons:

 

Shanny/Lynch: 3

McBeane: 1

 

Playoff records:

 

Shanny/Lynch: 3 playoff appearances, 6-3, 1 SB appearance

McBeane: 5 playoff appearances, 4-5, 0 SB appearance

 

So there you have it. The numbers are pretty interesting. McD has run the steadier ship from a regular season perspective, but when SF makes the playoffs, they go a little deeper. 

 

I started with the results, because this is a results-based game. But let's enter the ultimate hindsight chamber. The DRAFT.

 

2017

 

Shanny/Lynch:

1 player still on the Niners (Kittle, All-Pro talent, 5th rounder)

Reuben Foster (#31) and Solomon Thomas (#3 overall) were tremendous busts

Some guys were fine placeholders and are still floating in the league (Witherspoon, Beathard, Trent Taylor)

 

McBeane:

3 players still on the Bills (Tre White, Pro Bowler, #27. Milano, All-Pro, 5th rounder. Dawkins, fat but an NFL starter, 2nd rounder.

No "busts" in the traditional sense for the Bills outside of Nate Peterman but he was a fifth rounder

ZayDay was mediocre here but has carved out a career.

Tanner Vallejo is a league STer, floating around as above.

 

2017 verdict:  McBeane in a landslide, tbh.

 

Editor's note: it was at this point, I realized I needed to speed this thing up, so the draft results will be briefer. If I do not point out a tremendous bust, it is because I do not believe there was one. I also decided to quit after 2021.

 

2018

 

Niners

Mike McGlinchey (#9, good player, no longer a Niner)

Fred Warner (#70, homerun pick, All-Pro)

 

Bills

Allen (#7, legit the best pick in Bills history)

Edmunds (#16, no longer a Bill, "good" player if you like scarecrows?)

Taron Johnson (#121, good player, starter)

Wyatt Teller (strike against the Bills bc "Cody Ford over me?")

 

2018 verdict: McBeane in a landslide again?  I'm thinking yes.

 

2019

 

Niners

Nick Bosa (homerun, #3)

Deebo (homerun)

Dre Greenlaw (starter, good pick)

 

Bills

Ed Oliver (meh pick but I guess he's fine)

Cody Ford (shoot me)

Devin Singletary (solid)

Dawson Knox (good-great pick)

 

2019 verdict: You just knew Shanny was gonna get this one. Cody Ford and Big Ed just can't compete.

 

2020:

 

Niners:

Kinlaw (kind of a sneaky bust?  #14, played 10 games in 2 years?)

Aiyuk (hit, #25 overall)

 

Bills:

Davis (hit)

Dane Jackson (started a year, so I will call this a hit)

Zack Moss (3rd round RB bust)

Not including STers

 

2020 verdict: I'm tempted to call this a push, Aiyuk is better than Gabe but is he better than Gabe+Dane?

 

2021:

 

Niners

Hufunga (massive hit, All-Pro, #180)

Aaron Banks (hit, starter, IOL)

Lance (gigantic bust?)

Trey Sermon (third round RB bust)

Elijah Mitchell (hit, late RB)

 

Bills

Rousseau (hit, not homerun)

Spencer Brown (I'm tempted to call this a hit, as he has basically started when healthy his whole career)

Hamlin (less tempted to call this a hit, objectively I think he was not that good last year when pressed into duty, obviously rooting for him)

 

2021 verdict: I think this has to go Niners. We have the positional value but I think they have the better players.

 

So what have we learned here?

 

I think the conclusions that we can draw is that our parallel team in the Bay Area has not been some dominant drafting vehicle or some league leader in success. In fact, our records and drafting history stack up considerably well against them. They have their fair share of first round busts, far more than the Bills have. And HIGH first round busts, Solomon Thomas and Trey Lance loom much larger than Ed Oliver/Tremaine Edmunds just being starter-level players. I think SF gets a little bit of a pass for their shakier seasons because of their QB turmoil, but by the same token, don't pass on Mahomes for Solomon Thomas and don't draft busts like Lance.

 

Now we can turn to the peanut gallery. The lesser minds who have almost certainly skipped to the last paragraph.  The @Gugny 's and @BringBackFergy's of the world.

First, TY Chans.  This was thorough, and had a fair and measured approach.  There are hits and misses in every draft.  This will be 5th or more time I’ve said this point.

 

A man I respect and most of you as well, Bill Polian.  He has said multiple times on Late Hits on NFLR where he is a host on Wed nights has self proclaimed he hit on 58% of his drafts lifetime.  Now he wears the gold jacket, and is in the Bills history books as an all time great.  It places things in perspective for one of my heroes growing up is giving his audience realistic expectations.

 

The 49ers and Bills have had hits and misses.  If Purdy was healthy in last years playoffs, there may have been a different outcome in the NFCCG and the 49ers may have been in the SB.

 

I like Chan that you live the Bills, can be both positive and critical of the Bills with the heart of seeing the most out of the Bilks even though it like every other team has flaws.

 

I consider SF and Philly on the same tier for the NFC.  Dallas is ina lower tier not just because I hate them.

 

I will say because of Dabs and Schoen am quietly rooting for the Giants.  I want as many of our guys who don’t make the 53 gets tagged to the Giants.  Give Daboll something to work with to hold up against Dallas.  They have the coaching advantage as McCarthy is an idiot.

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

First, TY Chans.  This was thorough, and had a fair and measured approach.  There are hits and misses in every draft.  This will be 5th or more time I’ve said this point.

 

A man I respect and most of you as well, Bill Polian.  He has said multiple times on Late Hits on NFLR where he is a host on Wed nights has self proclaimed he hit on 58% of his drafts lifetime.  Now he wears the gold jacket, and is in the Bills history books as an all time great.  It places things in perspective for one of my heroes growing up is giving his audience realistic expectations.

 

The 49ers and Bills have had hits and misses.  If Purdy was healthy in last years playoffs, there may have been a different outcome in the NFCCG and the 49ers may have been in the SB.

 

I like Chan that you live the Bills, can be both positive and critical of the Bills with the heart of seeing the most out of the Bilks even though it like every other team has flaws.

 

I consider SF and Philly on the same tier for the NFC.  Dallas is ina lower tier not just because I hate them.

 

I will say because of Dabs and Schoen am quietly rooting for the Giants.  I want as many of our guys who don’t make the 53 gets tagged to the Giants.  Give Daboll something to work with to hold up against Dallas.  They have the coaching advantage as McCarthy is an idiot.

What makes McDermott a good coach and McCarthy an idiot

[ngbills]

16 minutes ago, FireChans said:

It’s the most important pick to get right. Did the drought not teach you anything?

 

Like you said, they have an overall better team. Our Vegas odds of winning the Super Bowl are still higher. Why? Because of Josh Allen. That’s why. 
 

You are understating that pick. 

It is very important which is why its impressive the success SF has had without it. My point is dont overvalue luck or the one pick. I would be the Bills right now over the niners. But I think the SF front office and coaches are better. I would take them on this Bills roster if that was an option. Its not the question but if JA retired tomorrow how much faith do you have in the Bills going forward? Can this regime get that pick right again? 

Edited August 24, 2023 by ngbills

[FireChans]

Just now, ngbills said:

It is very important which is why its impressive the success SF has had without it. My point is overvalue luck. I would be the Bills right now over the niners. But I think the SF front office and coaches are better. I would take them on this Bills roster if that was an option. Its not the question but if JA retired tomorrow how much faith do you have in the Bills going forward? Can this regime get that pick right again? 

I would have more faith in the Bills getting a QB right again than the Niners who haven’t gotten it right once. The Niners got their QB wrong in epic fashion. 3 firsts for Lance? Lmao. 

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

What makes McDermott a good coach and McCarthy an idiot

There is no good way to answer this one lol, thank god you didn’t ask me.

[PBF81]

26 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I see you neglected to mention the best defensive performance by this regime, when the defense won the game vs the Ravens (7th in PPG in the regular season, held to 3 points and forced a pick six to cinch the game).  

 

So you're using a single playoff game to contrast with several unimpressive wins and critical losses then.  OK, I'll agree.  

 

BTW, here's some more info on that game that you're using to attempt to argue contrary. 

 

The Ravens had ...

 

More passing yards 

More total yards 340 v. 220 

More 1st-Downs 

Better 3rd-down-conversions, we were poor  

Over 10 minutes in time-of-possession advantage 

They also had 150 yards rushing to our 32 (2.0 YPC) 

 

It was their penalties and poor kicking that was primarily responsible for our win.  Did we play a great defensive game in allowing 150 rushing yards?  That sounds like pure opinion.  

 

Either way, and again, if that's the only bright spot in an argument supporting McD overachieving come playoff time, it's problematic.  

 

Just sayin'.  

 

 

Edited August 24, 2023 by PBF81

[HereComesTheReignAgain]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

Now, put Allen on the Niners and their QBs on the Bills, and then what do you see?  

 

 

Now, put the Bills in the NFC and the Niners in the AFC and then what do you see?

[Milanos Milano]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

The difference is Josh.

 

Somewhat impressive they’ve been mostly good with constant turnover at the QB position and they’ve been to a SB… we’ve been struggling to get there with arguably the 2nd best QB in the league.(Not until 2020 was he truly great however.)

 

 

Still, I’d take Shannon over McD hands down.

This. Shanny has made Mr Irrelevant into a serviceable QB, while McD squanders the 2nd best QB in the league. Imagine what good coaches like Shanny, McV, and Billy would do with Allen. 

[FireChans]

15 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

So you're using a single playoff game to contrast with several unimpressive wins and critical losses then.  OK, I'll agree.  

 

BTW, here's some more info on that game that you're using to attempt to argue contrary. 

 

The Ravens had ...

 

More passing yards 

More total yards 340 v. 220 

More 1st-Downs 

Better 3rd-down-conversions, we were poor  

Over 10 minutes in time-of-possession advantage 

They also had 150 yards rushing to our 32 (2.0 YPC) 

 

It was their penalties and poor kicking that was primarily responsible for our win.  Did we play a great defensive game in allowing 150 rushing yards?  That sounds like pure opinion.  

 

Either way, and again, if that's the only bright spot in an argument supporting McD overachieving come playoff time, it's problematic.  

 

Just sayin'.  

 

 

Um, it's a bright spot that you intentionally ignored. I'm not contrasting anything, just adding a puzzle piece that you conveniently ignored.

 

We held them to 3 points. They averaged 29 PPG in the regular season. Pick six to seal it when the offense could only muster 10 points, Lamar had a passer rating of 99 in the regular season. He had a passer rating of 66 in that game. That's not a good defensive game? lmao

 

I love how you point out the "defensive expert" in great detail, then shift to "our offense wasn't good in that game" as a slight against McD.. The man can't win.

 

Defense near singlehandedly wins a playoff game when the offense struggles, McD sucks

 

Offense plays great and defense struggles, McD sucks.

 

 

Edited August 24, 2023 by FireChans

[GoBills808]

Just now, FireChans said:

Um, it's a bright spot that you intentionally ignored. I'm not contrasting anything, just adding a puzzle piece that you conveniently ignored.

 

We held them to 3 points. They averaged 29 PPG in the regular season. Lamar had a passer rating of 99 in the regular season. He had a passer rating of 66 in that game. That's not a good defensive game? lmao

 

I love how you point out the "defensive expert" in great detail, then shift to "our offense wasn't good in that game" as a slight against McD.. The man can't win.

 

Defense near singlehandedly wins a playoff game when the offense struggles, McD sucks

 

Offense plays great and defense struggles, McD sucks.

 

 

That game was iirc played in a windstorm

It was a good defensive effort but it needs context

[FireChans]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

That game was iirc played in a windstorm

If you want to live in a world where the defense outscoring the opposing offense in the playoffs isn't a good defensive performance, go ahead lol.

[ColoradoBills]

Well SF got blow out by KC 44-23 with Garoppolo.  So, if they were in the AFCW instead of the NFCW?

They barely beat the Raiders 37-34.

 

Having Purdy come in and manage the games as well as he did was pretty lucky.  

For an offensively minded HC it seems their D helped throughout the season.

 

These types of comparisons are opinionated at best. 

[Milanos Milano]

2 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

Well SF got blow out by KC 44-23 with Garoppolo.  So, if they were in the AFCW instead of the NFCW?

They barely beat the Raiders 37-34.

 

Having Purdy come in and manage the games as well as he did was pretty lucky.  

For an offensively minded HC it seems their D helped throughout the season.

 

These types of comparisons are opinionated at best. 

It’s not lucky. Coaches like Shanny and McV are taking ok QBs and getting them to over perform. If Shanny or McV had Josh Allen, we would likely be talking about another dynasty. 

[GoBills808]

9 minutes ago, FireChans said:

If you want to live in a world where the defense outscoring the opposing offense in the playoffs isn't a good defensive performance, go ahead lol.

No they were excellent

[PBF81]

38 minutes ago, HereComesTheReignAgain said:

Now, put the Bills in the NFC and the Niners in the AFC and then what do you see?

 

The Niners in the AFC East over the past three years?  Well, they'd have had an easier schedule in '20 and '21, when they had the fourth toughest schedule in the league in '20.  It stands to reason that in those two seasons they'd have posted a better record.  Last season they beat almost no good teams during the regular season, but come playoff time they played better than we typically do in them by most measures in the first two games.  Tough to fault them for getting shellacked by the Eagles as Purdy got hurt early and an absolutely atrocious nothing QB came in to replace him, leading to a 15 minute time-of-possession (and other) advantages for the Eagles.  

 

The Bills over there in the West, I don't envision our record having been much different over there, but come playoff time, and given our playoff history, we likely would have gotten by Seattle, even if not by as much as they did, but Dallas, whose offense was better than either Cincy's or Miami's, we may have lost that game.  

 

I don't see how that's germane to my point however.  As I said, this season will reveal much.  I expect that by season's end, peoples' viewpoing of McD and the D is going to be somewhat different.  I'm sure that more excuses will be levied in his favor, but nonetheless.  Let's see how it shakes out as that is simply MO.  

 

I'm also not defending Shanahan BTW, I don't care for the guy myself.  My point is that having Allen allows for McD to be over-rated.  Culture and being a players coach are one thing, routinely getting your a$$ handed to you in the playoffs once you hit the divisional round is altogether another while your defense entirely underachieves its regular season performance.  

 

 

25 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Um, it's a bright spot that you intentionally ignored. I'm not contrasting anything, just adding a puzzle piece that you conveniently ignored.

 

We held them to 3 points. They averaged 29 PPG in the regular season. Pick six to seal it when the offense could only muster 10 points, Lamar had a passer rating of 99 in the regular season. He had a passer rating of 66 in that game. That's not a good defensive game? lmao

 

I love how you point out the "defensive expert" in great detail, then shift to "our offense wasn't good in that game" as a slight against McD.. The man can't win.

 

Defense near singlehandedly wins a playoff game when the offense struggles, McD sucks

 

Offense plays great and defense struggles, McD sucks.

 

 

 

Simply because you say it doesn't make it true.  

 

If you want to talk about playing both sides, how about ignoring 6 games in favor of a single game.  I'll let readers decide after that.  LOL 

 

Honestly, ... seriously?  

 

.. and honestly, what's with the big focus on "being right?"  You wanna be right?  OK, I agree with you, entirely.  LOL 
 

I'll enjoy the season, things are going to play out as they play out.  Don't like my takes and opinions, fine.  I'll acquiesce to yours for your sake.  LOL 

 

 

Edited August 24, 2023 by PBF81

[Gugny]

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

Now we can turn to the peanut gallery. The lesser minds who have almost certainly skipped to the last paragraph.  The @Gugny 's and @BringBackFergy's of the world.

This is the only chapter I put myself through. 

[ngbills]

38 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I would have more faith in the Bills getting a QB right again than the Niners who haven’t gotten it right once. The Niners got their QB wrong in epic fashion. 3 firsts for Lance? Lmao. 

There is no good way to answer this one lol, thank god you didn’t ask me.

Well the Lance pick is all Allen's fault. Everyone fell in love with him because they saw the Josh similarities. I am not sold on Purdy but if he turns out to be a franchise guy I guess its a wash but for a lot cheaper. I dont see it though.

In fairness to SF - 2017 Niners and Bills both missed the Mahomes pick. 2018 - 3 QB's taken before they picked. They passed on Rosen which turned out to be right. 2019 - Bosa over Jones is the right call. Was a weak QB class. 2020 -  3 QB's taken before they picked, they weren't drafting Love. Had no shot at Burrow, Tua, Herbert. 2021 - Lance...

[PBF81]

This season is going to be a referendum on McBeane vs. McBeane.  LOL  

 

It will define itself after 7 seasons by season's end.  No amount of chatter here is going to alter any of it.  

 

 

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

The Niners in the AFC East over the past three years?  Well, they'd have had an easier schedule in '20 and '21, when they had the fourth toughest schedule in the league in '20.  It stands to reason that in those two seasons they'd have posted a better record.  Last season they beat almost no good teams during the regular season, but come playoff time they played better than we typically do in them by most measures in the first two games.  Tough to fault them for getting shellacked by the Eagles as Purdy got hurt early and an absolutely atrocious nothing QB came in to replace him, leading to a 15 minute time-of-possession (and other) advantages for the Eagles.  

 

The Bills over there in the West, I don't envision our record having been much different over there, but come playoff time, and given our playoff history, we likely would have gotten by Seattle, even if not by as much as they did, but Dallas, whose offense was better than either Cincy's or Miami's, we may have lost that game.  

 

I don't see how that's germane to my point however.  As I said, this season will reveal much.  I expect that by season's end, peoples' viewpoing of McD and the D is going to be somewhat different.  I'm sure that more excuses will be levied in his favor, but nonetheless.  Let's see how it shakes out as that is simply MO.  

 

I'm also not defending Shanahan BTW, I don't care for the guy myself.  My point is that having Allen allows for McD to be over-rated.  Culture and being a players coach are one thing, routinely getting your a$$ handed to you in the playoffs once you hit the divisional round is altogether another while your defense entirely underachieves its regular season performance.  

 

 

 

Simply because you say it doesn't make it true.  

 

If you want to talk about playing both sides, how about ignoring 6 games in favor of a single game.  I'll let readers decide after that.  LOL 

 

Honestly, ... seriously?  

 

.. and honestly, what's with the big focus on "being right?"  You wanna be right?  OK, I agree with you, entirely.  LOL 
 

I'll enjoy the season, things are going to play out as they play out.  Don't like my takes and opinions, fine.  I'll acquiesce to yours for your sake.  LOL 

 

 

I don’t mind your takes. I understand and agree entirely that the defense has not lived up to their billing in a large portion of our postseason games.

 

Where you lose me is when you say that “holding a team to three points and scoring 7 on defense is not a good defensive performance.” You call that “purely opinion.” 
 

You ignored it, likely intentionally, in your overview of the defense in the playoffs. Then you go as far as to warp reality and deny it was a good game on the defensive side of the ball.

 

It really hurts your position ultimately. It makes you look far less measured and much more agenda-driven in your opinion. If you had said “yeah, forgot that one, that was a good game but the body of work is not so good” I would’ve hit you with the thumbs up and kept it moving.

 

But do you bro lmao. Nothing wrong with being wrong.

3 minutes ago, Gugny said:

This is the only chapter I put myself through. 

A little birdy told me that @BringBackFergy cleared his day to read the whole post but has only gotten to the second paragraph so far.

[PBF81]

54 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I would have more faith in the Bills getting a QB right again than the Niners who haven’t gotten it right once.

 

I would have more faith in Beane and picking Allen, if a lot of his other day 1 & 2 (rounds 1-3) picks were even remotely as good, but they're not.  

 

So suggesting that Beane's some kind of astute genius for picking Allen, when most of his other picks don't match the same level of scrutiny, seems to fall short in the grand analysis.  

 

Let's face it, there was definitely some good fortune (call it luck if you will) re: Allen.  And insofar as McD goes in the equation, let's not forget that he saw a lot of positives in Peterman, positives that absolutely no one else saw.  

 

So yeah, it's quite possible that Allen's carrying McD and Beane's water.   

 

Again, this season will reveal much.  If we end up touting the #1 offense, and once again get ousted in the divisonal round or lose, particularly as the #1 or #2 seed, in the CC round, well, IMO that would say quite a bit.  

 

Again, let's let the season play out.  No need to discuss hypotheticals like that until they unfold, or conversely, do not unfold.  

 

 

Edited August 24, 2023 by PBF81

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, ngbills said:

Well the Lance pick is all Allen's fault. Everyone fell in love with him because they saw the Josh similarities. I am not sold on Purdy but if he turns out to be a franchise guy I guess its a wash but for a lot cheaper. I dont see it though.

In fairness to SF - 2017 Niners and Bills both missed the Mahomes pick. 2018 - 3 QB's taken before they picked. They passed on Rosen which turned out to be right. 2019 - Bosa over Jones is the right call. Was a weak QB class. 2020 -  3 QB's taken before they picked, they weren't drafting Love. Had no shot at Burrow, Tua, Herbert. 2021 - Lance...

6’5” rocket arm QB’s have been drafted since forever. 

[FilthyBeast]

24 minutes ago, Araiza Curse said:

It’s not lucky. Coaches like Shanny and McV are taking ok QBs and getting them to over perform. If Shanny or McV had Josh Allen, we would likely be talking about another dynasty. 

 

This is the point most still don't understand.

 

You take away JA17 from this regime and we are having a completely different conversation right now about a different GM/HC because both Beane and McD would already be long gone.

 

I give credit to McD for developing some lessor talent on defense (i.e. late round/UDFA types) but his defenses have consistently failed on the biggest of stages and firing Frazier isn't going to change that. And nobody can sit here and tell me that McD is responsible for JA17 becoming the QB he is today because that guy is now in NY and going to lead the Giants back to a SB at minimum with a QB that most wrote off as a major bust.

[PBF81]

14 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I don’t mind your takes. I understand and agree entirely that the defense has not lived up to their billing in a large portion of our postseason games.

 

Where you lose me is when you say that “holding a team to three points and scoring 7 on defense is not a good defensive performance.” You call that “purely opinion.”   

 

Where did I say that it wasn't a good defensive performance?  I think you're reading into things there.  I'd kindly ask you not to put words in my mouth.  Thanks

 

I also think you missed a whole lot of context.  To start, you are using that game as an example of a well-coached game, which is the context of our conversation.  I don't recall the discussion being only about D, and since McD's the head coach, I'll include him in on the entire discussion, including the offense if you don't mind.  

 

He has a phenominal QB like Allen, and the best we can do is 220 total yards?    By implication that's good in your view.  

 

For a little perspective, that was our 2nd-worst offensive performance all season and our least amount of 1st-Downs, by 3, which is a lot in that context.  17, which is piss poor.  

 

We were 3 of 14 on 3rds, which again, by implication you appear to think is good.  

 

We averaged 2.0 yards-per-carry on the ground, which is also piss poor.  Again, the implication must be that you think it's good.  

 

Looking at it from Baltimore's side, only the Titans and Bengals (twice) played worse than us offensively.  The Bengals absolutely sucked that season.  

 

Baltimore had a 35:33 to 24:27 Time-of-Possession advantage.  

 

Some of that revolves around the D, which allowed 150 rushing yards.  You seem to think that's decent.  

 

Not sure what to say, but at least please keep my comments in context.  

 

 

Edited August 24, 2023 by PBF81

[mjt328]

If the Bills were in the NFC, I believe they would have already made the Super Bowl.  Maybe more than once.

 

Competing with Kansas City and Patrick Mahomes is a huge thorn in our side.

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Where did I say that it wasn't a good defensive performance?  I think you're reading into things there.  I'd kindly ask you not to put words in my mouth.  Thanks

 

I also think you missed a whole lot of context.  To start, you are using that game as an example of a well-coached game, which is the context of our conversation.  I don't recall the discussion being only about D, and since McD's the head coach, I'll include him in on the entire discussion, including the offense if you don't mind.  

 

He has a phenominal QB like Allen, and the best we can do is 220 total yards?    By implication that's good in your view.  

 

For a little perspective, that was our 2nd-worst offensive performance all season and our least amount of 1st-Downs, by 3, which is a lot in that context.  17, which is piss poor.  

 

We were 3 of 14 on 3rds, which again, by implication you appear to think is good.  

 

We averaged 2.0 yards-per-carry on the ground, which is also piss poor.  Again, the implication must be that you think it's good.  

 

Looking at it from Baltimore's side, only the Titans and Bengals (twice) played worse than us offensively.  The Bengals absolutely sucked that season.  

 

Baltimore had a 35:33 to 24:27 Time-of-Possession advantage.  

 

Some of that revolves around the D, which allowed 150 rushing yards.  You seem to think that's decent.  

 

Not sure what to say, but at least please keep my comments in context.  

 

 

Okay then say it was a good defensive performance.

[oldmanfan]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Appreciate your opinion.

 

In today's era, the QB value is higher than ever.  Allen is already a better QB than Kelly (some people disagree but that's to be expected around here). Bruce maaaaaaaaaaay have an argument, but the rest, flat out nah.

Then you never saw OJ

[Jauronimo]

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

As much as I love what Josh has done thus far, when you have OJ, Bruce, and Kelly there is no way you can say he’s the best draft pick in franchise history at this point in his career.

I don't give much credit to getting the first overall pick in the draft correct.  OJ was a no brainer.  Bruce similarly was a cant miss prospect.  Kelly was the Bills second draft pick of 1983.  Props for getting the pick right eventually.  Doesn't hurt to have Marino and Kelly on the board at 14 for a QB needy team.  All 3 players were college stars, with major production, in major conferences.

 

Beane moved way up to take the 3rd QB selected in the draft.  Allen was not a star with huge production.  He was a player with a spotty record in the Mountain West drafted purely on potential.  All draft profiles had Allen as a major project, a major risk.  The pick defied all known laws of math or some such bull#### according to draft "experts".  If you miss on that pick you probably dont get another GM job.  That pick transformed the franchise.    

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Then you never saw OJ

Only on the LA expressway, fair enough.

[Chaos]

Shanny/Lynch in a landslide.   All of the other statistics and analysis are meaningless if they don't explain the difference in the playoff records. 

10 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

I don't give much credit to getting the first overall pick in the draft correct.  OJ was a no brainer.  Bruce similarly was a cant miss prospect.  Kelly was the Bills second draft pick of 1983.  Props for getting the pick right eventually.  Doesn't hurt to have Marino and Kelly on the board at 14 for a QB needy team.  All 3 players were college stars, with major production, in major conferences.

 

Beane moved way up to take the 3rd QB selected in the draft.  Allen was not a star with huge production.  He was a player with a spotty record in the Mountain West drafted purely on potential.  All draft profiles had Allen as a major project, a major risk.  The pick defied all known laws of math or some such bull#### according to draft "experts".  If you miss on that pick you probably dont get another GM job.  That pick transformed the franchise.    

This is pretty accurate.  There is a part missing though.  Allen is so good, he has covered up pretty much every other deficiency in the team that one player possible could.  I don't think there is another player in team history, you could even discuss this about.  Maybe Simpson. 

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Okay then say it was a good defensive performance.

 

LOL  Man, this place is a great case-study for human behavior.  

 

OK, to start, let's back up and put this back into the context from whence it came.  

 

You originally said this in response to one of my posts; 

Quote

 

FTR, I meant sure as in there's an argument there. Not sure it's a no brainer.

 

And less with more? Idk, top 3 seed 3 years in a row?  Payton/Brees only did that once in their career together.

 

 

To start, you are the one suggesting that it was a "no-brainer," I did not say that.  If I had wanted to say it, I would have.  I did not.  

 

Next, your entire argument, witness your above statement, was limited to our playoff seeding.  

 

All I was doing was adding the context of our playoff performances, AND, the fact that winning the AFCE in '20-'22 for us, and from '01-'19 for the Pats, has been a relatively simple task as other than for those two teams, them from '01-'19, and us from '20-'22, our division has [verifiably] been the easiest in the league during that time frame.  That should change this season, but that's a sidenote.  

 

I then explained that of our 7 playoff games over the past three seasons, few of them were impressive from a coaching perspective and explained why, and I deliberately left the Ravens game out of that analysis.  So why you're on my leg about this is a mystery.  

 

"Say it was a good defensive performance?"  

 

I never said anything about purely defense in my discussion.  But what's going on here, is that you've ignored the points about 6 other playoff games, have stripped off the offense from this game, and are attempting to use a defensive performance, next to a putrid offensive peformance, as a singular reason as to why McD, implicitly, is a good coach.  
 

I would be remiss if I let you get away with that polemically speaking.  

 

BUT, for the sake of argument, sure, it was the best defensive performance in the history of the franchise.  (Editorial note:  I don't really believe that, but I'll acquiesce to it to keep you happy)  

 

Offensively it was clearly bad, one of our worst on that season.  

 

Defensively, I'm not sure, how amidst that acquiescence, allowing 150 rushing yards on nearly 5 ypc and 35 minutes in ToP aren't problematic.  That was also in a game where Jackson, not the most noted passer in the game, had to come out and Huntley replaced him.  

 

Yes, it was a good but hardly perfect defensive performance.  But the O sucked.  At last check, offense is also part of coaching, and you want to ignore that completely.  

 

So sure, best defensive performance in the history of the franchise.  Given.  But the offensive performance was on the other end of the scale.  If that equals a game to look at from a great coaching perspective, yes, we'll have to agree to disagree.  

 

I think we're finished here.  I cannot contribute to your agenda.  

 

 

 

 

Edited August 24, 2023 by PBF81

[Charles Romes]

3 hours ago, FireChans said:

Topic. Title.

 

I'm gonna put some work in today boys and girls, so strap in.

 

To start: why am I comparing the Niners to the Bills?  Well our regime started in 2017, as did theirs. They have an offensive coach, we have a defensive coach. And neither team has won the big one.  So let's get started.

 

HC/GM records:

 

Shanny/Lynch: 52-46

McBeane: 62-35

 

Losing seasons:

 

Shanny/Lynch: 3

McBeane: 1

 

Playoff records:

 

Shanny/Lynch: 3 playoff appearances, 6-3, 1 SB appearance

McBeane: 5 playoff appearances, 4-5, 0 SB appearance

 

So there you have it. The numbers are pretty interesting. McD has run the steadier ship from a regular season perspective, but when SF makes the playoffs, they go a little deeper. 

 

I started with the results, because this is a results-based game. But let's enter the ultimate hindsight chamber. The DRAFT.

 

2017

 

Shanny/Lynch:

1 player still on the Niners (Kittle, All-Pro talent, 5th rounder)

Reuben Foster (#31) and Solomon Thomas (#3 overall) were tremendous busts

Some guys were fine placeholders and are still floating in the league (Witherspoon, Beathard, Trent Taylor)

 

McBeane:

3 players still on the Bills (Tre White, Pro Bowler, #27. Milano, All-Pro, 5th rounder. Dawkins, fat but an NFL starter, 2nd rounder.

No "busts" in the traditional sense for the Bills outside of Nate Peterman but he was a fifth rounder

ZayDay was mediocre here but has carved out a career.

Tanner Vallejo is a league STer, floating around as above.

 

2017 verdict:  McBeane in a landslide, tbh.

 

Editor's note: it was at this point, I realized I needed to speed this thing up, so the draft results will be briefer. If I do not point out a tremendous bust, it is because I do not believe there was one. I also decided to quit after 2021.

 

2018

 

Niners

Mike McGlinchey (#9, good player, no longer a Niner)

Fred Warner (#70, homerun pick, All-Pro)

 

Bills

Allen (#7, legit the best pick in Bills history)

Edmunds (#16, no longer a Bill, "good" player if you like scarecrows?)

Taron Johnson (#121, good player, starter)

Wyatt Teller (strike against the Bills bc "Cody Ford over me?")

 

2018 verdict: McBeane in a landslide again?  I'm thinking yes.

 

2019

 

Niners

Nick Bosa (homerun, #3)

Deebo (homerun)

Dre Greenlaw (starter, good pick)

 

Bills

Ed Oliver (meh pick but I guess he's fine)

Cody Ford (shoot me)

Devin Singletary (solid)

Dawson Knox (good-great pick)

 

2019 verdict: You just knew Shanny was gonna get this one. Cody Ford and Big Ed just can't compete.

 

2020:

 

Niners:

Kinlaw (kind of a sneaky bust?  #14, played 10 games in 2 years?)

Aiyuk (hit, #25 overall)

 

Bills:

Davis (hit)

Dane Jackson (started a year, so I will call this a hit)

Zack Moss (3rd round RB bust)

Not including STers

 

2020 verdict: I'm tempted to call this a push, Aiyuk is better than Gabe but is he better than Gabe+Dane?

 

2021:

 

Niners

Hufunga (massive hit, All-Pro, #180)

Aaron Banks (hit, starter, IOL)

Lance (gigantic bust?)

Trey Sermon (third round RB bust)

Elijah Mitchell (hit, late RB)

 

Bills

Rousseau (hit, not homerun)

Spencer Brown (I'm tempted to call this a hit, as he has basically started when healthy his whole career)

Hamlin (less tempted to call this a hit, objectively I think he was not that good last year when pressed into duty, obviously rooting for him)

 

2021 verdict: I think this has to go Niners. We have the positional value but I think they have the better players.

 

So what have we learned here?

 

I think the conclusions that we can draw is that our parallel team in the Bay Area has not been some dominant drafting vehicle or some league leader in success. In fact, our records and drafting history stack up considerably well against them. They have their fair share of first round busts, far more than the Bills have. And HIGH first round busts, Solomon Thomas and Trey Lance loom much larger than Ed Oliver/Tremaine Edmunds just being starter-level players. I think SF gets a little bit of a pass for their shakier seasons because of their QB turmoil, but by the same token, don't pass on Mahomes for Solomon Thomas and don't draft busts like Lance.

 

Now we can turn to the peanut gallery. The lesser minds who have almost certainly skipped to the last paragraph.  The @Gugny 's and @BringBackFergy's of the world.

History will have to record Edmunds as a huge drafting hit considering what he signed with the bears for. 

[FireChans]

8 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

LOL  Man, this place is a great case-study for human behavior.  

 

OK, to start, let's back up and put this back into the context from whence it came.  

 

You originally said this in response to one of my posts; 

 

To start, you are the one suggesting that it was a "no-brainer," I did not say that.  If I had wanted to say it, I would have.  I did not.  

 

Next, your entire argument, witness your above statement, was limited to our playoff seeding.  

 

All I was doing was adding the context of our playoff performances, AND, the fact that winning the AFCE in '20-'22 for us, and from '01-'19 for the Pats, has been a relatively simple task as other than for those two teams, them from '01-'19, and us from '20-'22, our division has [verifiably] been the easiest in the league during that time frame.  That should change this season, but that's a sidenote.  

 

I then explained that of our 7 playoff games over the past three seasons, few of them were impressive from a coaching perspective and explained why, and I deliberately left the Ravens game out of that analysis.  So why you're on my leg about this is a mystery.  

 

"Say it was a good defensive performance?"  

 

I never said anything about purely defense in my discussion.  But what's going on here, is that you've ignored the points about 6 other playoff games, have stripped off the offense from this game, and are attempting to use a defensive performance, next to a putrid offensive peformance, as a singular reason as to why McD, implicitly, is a good coach.  
 

I would be remiss if I let you get away with that polemically speaking.  

 

BUT, for the sake of argument, sure, it was the best defensive performance in the history of the franchise.  (Editorial note:  I don't really believe that, but I'll acquiesce to it to keep you happy)  

 

Offensively it was clearly bad, one of our worst on that season.  

 

Defensively, I'm not sure, how amidst that acquiescence, allowing 150 rushing yards on nearly 5 ypc and 35 minutes in ToP aren't problematic.  

 

Yes, it was a good but hardly perfect defensive performance.  But the O sucked.  At last check, offense is also part of coaching, and you want to ignore that completely.  

 

So sure, best defensive performance in the history of the franchise.  Given.  But the offensive performance was on the other end of the scale.  If that equals a game to look at from a great coaching perspective, yes, we'll have to agree to disagree.  

 

I think we're finished here.  I cannot contribute to your agenda.  

 

 

 

 

This is a lot of words. I ain’t gonna read all of it. I’m glad you can say it was a good defensive performance (I know I know they only allowed 3 and scored 7, but the Ravens rushed 30+ times for 150 yards and we lost the TOP battle, the horror).

 

I also think it’s interesting that you like to pin the offensive woes on McD. I’ve never really seen or heard that before. I will keep that in mind when discussing our incredible offensive performances to make sure McD gets the credit he deserves. 
 

as far as the words in your mouth angle, I do love that you read my mind that I was “implicitly saying McD was a great coach” because of one defensive performance lmao. You should google “projection.”

Edited August 24, 2023 by FireChans

[PBF81]

Just now, FireChans said:

This is a lot of words.

 

LOL   I'm sure it is.  

 

Especially when they disprove your agenda.  

 

 

[hondo in seattle]

Great post but I'm not sure why the 49ers are the measuring stick.  There are only two measuring sticks I care about: wins & Lombardis.  

 

Beane and McDermott have done a marvelous job getting us more wins.  Before them, as we all painfully know, we went 17 years without a playoff appearance, let alone a playoff win.  I deeply appreciate Beane and McD because they deliver more regular season wins than losses, and typically add a win or two in the playoffs.   

 

But we remain Lombardi-less.  I just hope they can finish the job and get us a trophy.  

[Jauronimo]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Only on the LA expressway, fair enough.

I was a fan of OJ before it was cool (1995).  Most people probably dont remember his role as Nordberg in the arthouse film The Naked Gun.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

3 hours ago, FireChans said:

Topic. Title.

 

I'm gonna put some work in today boys and girls, so strap in.

 

 

 

 

 

2020:

 

Niners:

Kinlaw (kind of a sneaky bust?  #14, played 10 games in 2 years?)

Aiyuk (hit, #25 overall)

 

Bills:

Davis (hit)

Dane Jackson (started a year, so I will call this a hit)

Zack Moss (3rd round RB bust)

Not including STers

 

2020 verdict: I'm tempted to call this a push, Aiyuk is better than Gabe but is he better than Gabe+Dane?

 

 

good work FireChans.

 

I do think it is necessary to include Stefon Diggs in a discussion of draft picks and roster building. 

 

he was essentially the bills 2020 1st round draft pick.

 

with that being the case is Brandon Aiyuk better than Stefon Diggs? Of course not.

 

now some will whine and complain that we could’ve drafted Justin Jefferson. But that’s such a 20/20 hindsight argument, since you have no idea who will be on the draft board or who the bills would even want to take if they still had the pick.