Is Sean McDermott our version of Doug Collins?

[GunnerBill]

39 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Doug Collins? No.

 

He's more our very own Marvin Lewis.

And there is already a thread on this EXACT POINT.

 

 

It's been more than one year of playoff losses.  Pay attention.

 

 

The same people shouting "NO!" now are the people who were OUTRAGED(!) when McDermott released Marcell Dareus, and they would have supported retaining Dareus FOREVER....

 

They will clutch onto McDermott FOREVER for fear that we end up with any one of a thousand HORRIFIC past Bills coaches again. LOL.

 

Such is the plight of being a Bills fan.

 

They don't seem to catch on that you can actually IMPROVE the position, with a GREAT HC.

 

It all comes down to whoever does the interviewing and hiring, and how competent they are.

 

As I have now said for 3 years (I think), the DAY WILL COME when McDermott faces his judgment.

 

If we perpetually fail, he'll be GONE.  Mark my words.

 

 

 

I meant one more year of playoff losses. I thought that was evident. Seems not.

 

And tbc I was not outraged when they traded Dareus.

Edited June 15, 2023 by GunnerBill

[Thurman#1]

 

 

No.

 

No particular reason to make that comparison as opposed to an Andy Reid before he won a Super Bowl comparison.

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

No.

 

No particular reason to make that comparison as opposed to an Andy Reid before he won a Super Bowl comparison.

I know this has been beat to death but Andy Reid won his Super Bowl almost immediately after getting a top QB

[jethro_tull]

Do you think this team has had a championship roster?

No and no.  

[JGMcD2]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

The "D-Ham" ordeal's only going to carry him so far.  That's respect as a person, less so as a coach.  

 

People seem to have difficulty separating someone being a nice guy from someone that has what it takes to be superlative as a coach in a tactical/strategic sense.  

 

 

People also love to try and separate the personal portion of being a coach as if it’s insignificant. 
 

He doesn’t coach a sport, he coaches people. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

For me, a lot comes back to 13-seconds. 

 

The Houston Playoff loss was Billsy. Going up 16-0 and then not being able to score, but the talent argument could have been made because Duke Williams was our leading WR, and Pat DiMarco was targeted deep. 

 

2020 you could say the Bills weren't ready just yet to take on the now dynasty Chiefs. 

 

But 2021, you have to get that game into the garage and, to me, that moment undoubtedly accelerated the impatience with McDermott. 

 

He has grown from the rookie HC who was trumpeting a physical run game in snowy Buffalo weather, to a HC that allows a pass-heavy offense with no real commitment to the run. 

 

But definitely, the good 2020 vibes are wearing thin, at least outwardly with the fans. 

 

Edited June 15, 2023 by Straight Hucklebuck

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

It will be interesting then.  He's never had any sustained success as a DC.  

 

His average Defensive rankings as a DC in Carolina were 17th in Scoring and 15th in Yards.  He arguably had better talent there than he has here, to date or this season.  Kuechly alone was huge and better than anyone we've had on D.  

 

So it will be interesting.  I agree with a few other posters that have essentially said that he's given himself enough rope to hang himself with.  

 

I do appreciate it.  I'm just curious what the excuses will be in his favor if it unfolds that way.  

 

At some point the obvious becomes obvious to just about everyone.  IMO he adds nothing to this team once they get into the playoffs, he only detracts.  We've seen absolutely nothing in the coaching department in the playoffs that suggests otherwise.  

 

 

 

 

He really did have success as a DC. That's why he was a top contender for HC jobs for a couple of years.

 

Averaging those stats doesn't really present a full or fair picture.

 

Throw out his first year for example, when he didn't have the pieces in place, and the average gets much better. 14.4th in points and 9.8th in yards.

 

And as I've been pointing out for decades now, Points Against is as much a team stat as a defensive stat. Points scored by opponent defenses count against your own defense in this stat. If your QB throws a pick six, somehow your defense has seven more points charged against it. The opponent runs back a punt or a kick for a TD? Your defense's Points Allowed goes up by seven points. On the face of it, that's dumb.

 

And that doesn't even include the fact that where the opponent's offense gets the ball is a huge factor in the likelihood of scoring points. If your RB fumbles and their team recovers on your own 20 yard-line, the EPA for your team is minus 5.5 points. Starting at your opponent's 20 gives you an EPA of minus 0.2. It's a huge difference and it simply means that when it comes to how many points teams score against your defense, your own offense and STs have a large share of that. If your quarterback is sacked on fourth down at your own one-yard-line and the defense knocks them back to the four in three plays and they kick a field goal, that's a tremendous stand by your defense that looks like a failure in PA, as it shows the defense as allowing three points.

 

Yards do a much much greater job in isolating the performance of the defense. If the other team runs back a kick for a TD, it doesn't affect the defense's Yards Allowed, which is exactly what should happen to isolate defensive performance. Your QB is sacked in the end zone? No affect on Yards Allowed, but somehow your team's defense is charged two points in Points Allowed. Leodis fumbles a kick and it's recovered on the five yard line and they drive the five yards and score a TD? Your defense is charged five yards, which is what they should be charged for.

 

Yard Allowed is a much better measure of defensive success, and McDermott's YA figures in Carolina look like this:

 

2011 28th rookie season with a scheme switch

2012 10th

2013 2nd

2014 10th

2015 6th

2016 21st

 

That still leaves a very serious drop in 2016. That absolutely has to be taken into any consideration. But four years of being a top ten D is sustained success.  

 

That's why he was a top head coaching candidate. He was very successful.

 

 

[Einstein]

50 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

No.

 

No particular reason to make that comparison as opposed to an Andy Reid before he won a Super Bowl comparison.

 

The Reid comparison doesn’t work.

 

Reid already been to a Super Bowl and multiple Championship games by the same point in his career that McD is.

 

And with a QB who wasn’t as good as Allen.

[Thurman#1]

47 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I know this has been beat to death but Andy Reid won his Super Bowl almost immediately after getting a top QB

 

 

Donovan McNabb was a top QB too. Not elite, but plenty good enough to win a Super Bowl with. Andy has teams that were good enough to win a Super Bowl in Philly. He didn't break through.

 

There's always a "yeah, but". Always, in any situation, failure or success. Reid had teams that were good enough but didn't break through. Till they did.

 

 

1 minute ago, Einstein said:

 

The Reid comparison doesn’t work.

 

Reid already been to a Super Bowl and multiple Championship games by the same point in his career that McD is.

 

And with a QB who wasn’t as good as Allen.

 

 

Again, there's always a "yeah, but." Always. Want me to list them for McDermott? I can. There are plenty.

 

Reid was in position to win. Several times. And he didn't. Until he did.

 

 

Edited June 15, 2023 by Thurman#1

[Einstein]

2 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

Again, there's always a "yeah, but." Always. 

 

He was in position to win. And he didn't.

 

 

 

There is no “yeah, but”. 

 

It’s like 2+2=10.

 

Its just wrong.

 

Reid accomplished farrrr more than McD. And with a worse QB.

[GoBills808]

6 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Donovan McNabb was a top QB too. Not elite, but plenty good enough to win a Super Bowl with. Andy has teams that were good enough to win a Super Bowl in Philly. He didn't break through.

 

There's always a "yeah, but". Always, in any situation, failure or success. Reid had teams that were good enough but didn't break through. Till they did.

 

 

 

 

Again, there's always a "yeah, but." Always. Want me to list them for McDermott? I can. There are plenty.

 

Reid was in position to win. Several times. And he didn't. Until he did.

 

 

I don't think there's a comparable yeah but for McDermott. He has wildly underachieved relative to what he's got.

[bearstobills]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I don't think there's a comparable yeah but for McDermott. He has wildly underachieved relative to what he's got.

Wildly underachieved with what he's got??  They were 13-3 last year.  Only 1 team gets to win it all.  What's he got anyway?  It's a good roster, but nobody is shaking in their boots.  They could get hot and win it all.  There's about 6 teams who could.  This idea that either you win the super bowl or you are wildly underachieving is silly.  He's won 4 playoff games in the last 3 years in a loaded conference.  They'll eventually win it all.  It's a process. And as lifelong Bulls fan, they lost to the Pistons twice in the playoffs, and finally in Jordan's 7th season, they won it all. 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, bearstobills said:

Wildly underachieved with what he's got??  They were 13-3 last year.  Only 1 team gets to win it all.  What's he got anyway?  It's a good roster, but nobody is shaking in their boots.  They could get hot and win it all.  There's about 6 teams who could.  This idea that either you win the super bowl or you are wildly underachieving is silly.  He's won 4 playoff games in the last 3 years in a loaded conference.  They'll eventually win it all.  It's a process. And as lifelong Bulls fan, they lost to the Pistons twice in the playoffs, and finally in Jordan's 7th season, they won it all. 

Yes

 

unless you consider consecutive divisional round losses something to hang your hat on

 

and what he's got is one of the best quarterbacks in the league for the last three years

[bearstobills]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

Yes

 

unless you consider consecutive divisional round losses something to hang your hat on

 

and what he's got is one of the best quarterbacks in the league for the last three years

I hang my hat on being a contender year in and out.  The only way to win the Super Bowl is to consistently go to the playoffs.  They do that.  And I agree with you on Allen.  He is ONE of the best. The best has won it twice recently.  Allen will figure it out.  My NBA comp for him is Giannis.  He was doubted up until he finally won it (in his 8th year).  Joker just won it in his 8th year.  Sensing a pattern?

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, bearstobills said:

I hang my hat on being a contender year in and out.  The only way to win the Super Bowl is to consistently go to the playoffs.  They do that.  And I agree with you on Allen.  He is ONE of the best. The best has won it twice recently.  Allen will figure it out.  My NBA comp for him is Giannis.  He was doubted up until he finally won it (in his 8th year).  Joker just won it in his 8th year.  Sensing a pattern?

Yeah I've seen this repeated a lot in defense of McDermott recently. I don't agree

 

The way to win the Super Bowl is to WIN playoff games, not go to the playoffs. McDermott's teams don't fare so well in the playoffs.

[JaCrispy]

We let the wrong coach go, imo…

[Doc Brown]

5 hours ago, Gregg said:

 

Terry wasn't so patient with the Sabres when they were a clown show all of those years. The Bills of the last 6 years have been much better than the Sabres of the past decade, but Terry has shown he will make major changes if he feels it's necessary. New stadium on the way the Bills better field a winning product considering what the cost will be for fans to attend their games.

It’s easy to identify incompetence.  Nobody that Pegula fired (head coach or gm) was coming off a season above .500.  Sabres and Bills.  I think they think they found their Tomlin/Cowher in McDermott and will stick with him through thick and thin.

That actually strengthens the argument that Pegula will give McDermott a lot of leash because he knows how hard it is to find a coach and gm who consistently make the playoffs and put a winning product on the field.

[Nextmanup]

30 minutes ago, bearstobills said:

I hang my hat on being a contender year in and out.  The only way to win the Super Bowl is to consistently go to the playoffs.  They do that.  And I agree with you on Allen.  He is ONE of the best. The best has won it twice recently.  Allen will figure it out.  My NBA comp for him is Giannis.  He was doubted up until he finally won it (in his 8th year).  Joker just won it in his 8th year.  Sensing a pattern?

Look at the Bengals right now.  They are in a really good place; they are a better team than we are.  They are going to be set up for a long time, and they have already been doing some winning for a few years now.

None of this phase of Bengals football would be happening if they never fired Marvin Lewis.

 

Look at the Eagles.  They won the damned SB against BB, Brady, and the Patriots no less.

 

Then things sort of fell apart and they FIRED THE HEAD COACH.

 

And not that much further down the road, they make an appearance in the SB again last year with the new guy.

 

Good organizations aren't afraid to improve the coach if he isn't getting the job done.

 

Bills fans are deathly afraid of the idea because most of our coaches historically have been dog ****.

 

The assumption seems to be if we change McDermott out, he'll be replaced with Kay Stephenson, guaranteed.

LOL

 

 

 

[Doc Brown]

6 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Look at the Bengals right now.  They are in a really good place; they are a better team than we are.  They are going to be set up for a long time, and they have already been doing some winning for a few years now.

None of this phase of Bengals football would be happening if they never fired Marvin Lewis.

 

Look at the Eagles.  They won the damned SB against BB, Brady, and the Patriots no less.

 

Then things sort of fell apart and they FIRED THE HEAD COACH.

 

And not that much further down the road, they make an appearance in the SB again last year with the new guy.

 

Good organizations aren't afraid to improve the coach if he isn't getting the job done.

 

Bills fans are deathly afraid of the idea because most of our coaches historically have been dog ****.

 

The assumption seems to be if we change McDermott out, he'll be replaced with Kay Stephenson, guaranteed.

LOL

 

 

 

Marvin Lewis was 0-7 in the playoffs.  It took a 4-11-1 season before Philly fired Pederson.  You’re comparing apples and oranges.

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Marvin Lewis was 0-7 in the playoffs.  It took a 4-11-1 season before Philly fired Pederson.  You’re comparing apples and oranges.

No kidding. Pederson actually WON A SUPERBOWL lol

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

 

There is no “yeah, but”. 

 

It’s like 2+2=10.

 

Its just wrong.

 

Reid accomplished farrrr more than McD. And with a worse QB.

 

 

Typical. "It's just wrong," followed by no evidence.

 

Just dumb. But typical.

 

And there is plenty of "yeah, but," including the ones you used in your previous posts.

 

You folks want to be able to use all the "yeah, buts" for other coaches, but when people point out that that's exactly as legitimate to use for McDermott, suddenly the stuff you constantly throw out for guys Reid, can not be used for McDermott because they're excuses or better yet, "tired old excuses." But for Reid, though they're even older and tireder, somehow they're OK for you.

 

Utter nonsense.

[Freddie's Dead]

Sadly, yes.

[nedboy7]

This fan base has a hard time managing prosperity. 

[Einstein]

13 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Typical. "It's just wrong," followed by no evidence.

 

I provided evidence. You ignored it.

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

Yeah I've seen this repeated a lot in defense of McDermott recently. I don't agree

 

The way to win the Super Bowl is to WIN playoff games, not go to the playoffs. McDermott's teams don't fare so well in the playoffs.

 

 

And again, neither did Reid's. Till they did. And he's not the only one.

 

Madden, Cowher and Landry are the examples that spring immediately to mind, but look at Dungy. Look at Coughlin. Look at Vermeil, who made it four times, was fired because they thought he couldn't take a team to the Super Bowl, and then ....

 

12 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

I provided evidence. You ignored it.

 

 

If you think there is evidence in that post, your definition of the word needs work. You provided your own opinion. That's not evidence for anyone but you.

 

 

13 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

This fan base has a hard time managing prosperity. 

 

 

 

Heh. Yes.

 

In fairness, so do they all. Even the ones who win SBs.

 

Edited June 15, 2023 by Thurman#1

[Beck Water]

8 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

This all or nothing concept is incredible to me. The goal is to win, not disputing that. Win a Super Bowl.

 

Winning a Super Bowl is ***** hard. 

 

I know, right?  Plus right now Reid is the avatar for "Great superbowl winning coach".  Won Superbowl in Mahomes 3rd year (2nd as starter)

 

That's all well and good, but the QB, while a key part, is only one part of the team.  Reid had 7 years in KC to put the team together.

And that's not going into Reid's years as HC in Philly.  13 years with 1 AFC championship to show for it.

 

What's my point:

1) maybe McD has it in him, maybe he doesn't.  With other coaches, like Reid, they haven't had it in him...until they do

2) sometimes change is good, but sometimes change just establishes a Coaching Carousel and a cycle of futility

 

 

 

 

[Jay_Fixit]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

I don't think there's a comparable yeah but for McDermott. He has wildly underachieved relative to what he's got.

Like Collins did with the Bulls. Until a new mind came in and made the team better.

 

This actually might be the best thread I’ve seen on here in weeks.

 

Bills fans. Lol. 

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

Like Collins did with the Bulls. Until a new mind came in and made the team better.

 

This actually might be the best thread I’ve seen on here in weeks.

 

Bills fans. Lol. 

The one guy is justifying the Eagles ***** canning a Super Bowl winning HC but somehow McDermott and his one divisional playoff win is untouchable 😂😂😂

[PBF81]

10 hours ago, BillsfaninChicago said:

He could be our Billy Martin and serve multiple stints as our head coach. You never know…you just never know

 

He'd have to get ejected from multiple games first to be our Billy Martin.  

 

Maybe when we get flagged he can run out and throw the official's flag up in to the stands or something along those lines since there's no dirt to kick at the ref.  

 

 

[Rigotz]

4 hours ago, PBF81 said:

At some point the obvious becomes obvious to just about everyone.  IMO he adds nothing to this team once they get into the playoffs, he only detracts.  We've seen absolutely nothing in the coaching department in the playoffs that suggests otherwise.  

 

I think this is just recency bias. Everyone remembers last year's playoffs and 13 seconds, but...

 

He coached literally a perfect game against New England, a legitimately competitive team.

He shut down the Ravens twice. They were very competitive teams.

 

To say he has never done anything in the coaching department in the playoffs seems like an emotional reaction that isn't accurate.

[Gregg]

Just now, PBF81 said:

 

He'd have to get ejected from multiple games first to be our Billy Martin.  

 

Maybe when we get flagged he can run out and throw the official's flag up in to the stands or something along those lines since there's no dirt to kick at the ref.  

 

 

 

You will also need to Terry Pegula to become a George Steinbrenner type of owner for this to happen. 

1 minute ago, Rigotz said:

 

I think this is just recency bias. Everyone remembers last year's playoffs and 13 seconds, but...

 

He coached literally a perfect game against New England, a legitimately competitive team.

He shut down the Ravens twice. They were very competitive teams.

 

To say he has never done anything in the coaching department in the playoffs seems like an emotional reaction that isn't accurate.

 

Better make sure the playoff game is at home as he is winless on the road. 0-4 JAC, HOU, KC (2).

[msw2112]

Time will tell.  The Bills have been among the league's best teams for the last few seasons.  They choked away a golden opportunity with 13 seconds.  I'm willing to give them a pass last year due to injuries and a lot of crazy circumstances.  And, frankly, Cincinnati was either a) simply better, or b) just a bad matchup for the Bills.  It's hard to have watched the Bills game in Cincy up to the point at which Hamlin went down and say that the Bills were going to win that game.  The playoff game was more of the same.

 

The Bills have made some changes since then - moving on from Frazier, adding interior OL talent, arguably upgrading the RB and WR rooms, adding a proven pass rusher, etc.  Maybe these changes get the Bills over the hump, maybe they don't.  I'm not of the mindset that McD should be canned if the Bills don't win the Super Bowl, but I do need to see better play in the playoffs and overall improvement, or I may move into that camp.  For example, let's say the Bills win the AFC and get to the Super Bowl and lose to the Eagles.  Did they make stupid decisions that cost them a game they should have won?  Were they unprepared for the game?  Or did they lose because the Eagles were simply better?  If you look back at the Bills Super Bowl teams, they were better than the Giants, but were outcoached (both in preparation and execution on the field), and lost the game.  The other 3 games, they were not the better team.  Marv Levy admits as much.  If you look at basketball, there were great Utah Jazz teams with Stockton and Malone that were prepared and well-coached, but they were not as good as the Michael Jordan Bulls, so they never won a ring.  The Jordan Bulls also took out a great Phoenix Suns team lead by Charles Barkley.  Those teams reached the finals but never got a ring because the other team was just better.  It wasn't because their coach was bad or deserved to be fired.   So McD's future, to me, is not necessarily based on the end result, but based on how the end result is achieved.  If the Bills are the best team (subjective, I realize) this season and still find a way to not win it all, then a coaching change will be necessary.  The Bills were the best team in the first half of last season, but they were not the best team in the 2nd half, for a variety of reasons that I don't think were McD's fault (Allen's injury, lack of OL talent, Miller injury, Hyde injury, Hamlin situation, etc.)

Edited June 15, 2023 by msw2112

[Toyo321]

12 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Brandon has ZERO power to decide to go in a different direction. How are people STILL confused about the Bills heirarchy seven years into this regime? 

 

Will Terry? It would take more than 1 more year of playoff losses.

If Buffalo gets their butts handed to them this year by Miami, the Jets or even NE.  It wont take a playoff loss to see that McD is not the answer and should be replaced no matter where the decision comes from.  Terry Pegula is not a experienced owner and that is one of his shortcomings.  Waiting for a series of playoff loses is just a futile analogy that is a stereotype in the NFL to fire a coach.  You don't waste 1, 2 or even 3 years on futile coaching in the playoffs with one of the best QB's and rosters in the NFL.  Why because we already have wasted the last 4 years on subpar coaching in numerous playoff exits on questionably badly coached playoff games. 

 

This mentality of giving a coach a free pass when addressing the conditions to fire a head coach in the NFL is delusional.  Owners like Terry Pegula don't have the experience and or mentorship when addressing this current subject.  How could he.

 

Buffalo can't afford any more losses in the playoffs, like what has transpired in the last 4 years.  The window on the core of this team next year will start to change for the worse, not the better, going beyond 2024.

 

 

Edited June 15, 2023 by Toyo321

[PBF81]

14 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

I was watching some old stuff on the NBA and it kinda hit me the parallels the Bills have to the pre Phill Jackson Bulls. 
Doug Collins their coach took over a franchise that was in disarray even after drafting one Michael Jordan two years earlier. 
They became a consistent playoff team under Doug but couldn’t get over the hump til management decided Doug just wasn’t the guy and brought in Phill. 
Seems like the National Media is starting to ask if you have this all world QB why haven’t you gotten farther and now it appears after today the National Media is starting to kinda zero in on Sean as the scapegoat in the Steff Diggs stuff.  

I like Sean alot and remember the debacle he took over from Rex but have we reached the point where if they don’t win it this year do Terry and Brandon say it’s time to go in a different direction? 

 

This is a good thought-inducing post!!  You've certainly gotten some good comments.  

 

I do think that people seem to be unable to divide someone being a "good guy" and being a good coach however.  It's quite possible that they're only one of the two.  

 

Here's my take ... as I step behind the chicken wire on the stage ...    

 

 

Narratives form, often based upon superficial constructs. IMO that’s been the case here. I’ll cite a few.

 

 

Narrative:  McD’s a great Defensive Coordinator.

 

Facts:  His defenses on average in his 6 seasons in Carolina averaged 17th in Scoring and 15th in Yardage. His defenses were incredibly inconsistent from season to season. His last season there arguably should have been his best if he were truly that good and his rankings not based upon circumstances, which they were. Yet, it was his second worst and only by a margin better than his worst there.

 

His successor, Steve Wilks, took McD’s 26th Scoring/21st Yardage D and turned it into an 11th Scoring/7th Yardage D, and he’s the farthest thing from being a household name in defensive coordinators as could possibly be. In fact, he was fired after that season and has been on a coaching death spiral ever since now on his fifth team in as many seasons and in varying roles and once at the collegiate level.

 

McD has benefitted from having had 5 of the team’s 9 easiest schedules over the past 22 Bills seasons.

 

Was McD the best hire to begin with, even strictly considering the defensive side ,much more any offensive prowess? Would it have been difficult to find someone with better performance credentials?

 

 

Narrative:  Daboll’s a great Offensive Coordinator.

 

Facts:  Daboll was an Offensive Coordinator for four seasons elsewhere before coming to the Bills. Here are his rankings in that role.

 

2009: 29th Scoring/32nd Yardage

2010: 31st Scoring/29th Yardage

2011: 20th Scoring/22nd Yardage (his pinnacle)

2012: 32nd Scoring/24th Yardage

 

Was he the best hire coming in? Would it have been difficult to find someone with better performance credentials?

 

Then he came here. In his first two seasons these were his rankings here.

 

2018: 30th Scoring/30th Yardage

2019: 23rd Scoring/24th Yardage

 

Through those 6 seasons that’s an average of over 26th Scoring and 27th Yardage.

 

The argument is that he is the one largely responsible for Allen’s development in Allen’s 3rd season, 2020. The reason why that’s unlikely is because to start, that’s the season that Diggs showed up, it was also Allen’s third season when it’s a well known maxim that QBs typically take three seasons (or so) to develop, and Allen didn’t develop slowly, he exploded, going from ranked in the bottom quartile of the league in most metrics in 2020 to near the top and nearly top-10 across the board. He nearly doubled his passing TDs and added 50% to his passing yardage total.

 

The question then becomes, was this Daboll that was behind that leap in performance? I don’t see how it could have been since the entire football world knows that Allen’s style of play is unique to him and predicated all but entirely upon his semi-freestyling play, and with the coaches “letting Allen be Allen” as stated by them.

 

But more relevantly perhaps, if Daboll was responsible, then how come the best he could do with Daniel Jones, in Jones’ 4th season, was a 3,205, 15 TD, 5 INT performance, only marginally up from Jones’ prior two seasons, worse than Jones’ rookie season, and worse than Allen’s 2nd season in 2019, and leading the Giants to the 15th Scoring/18th Yardage rankings. That after 8 seasons of experience at OC and with one of the league’s best RBs for balance to boot.

 

Last season with the Giants outside of his division in the regular season, his offense faced only one scoring defense ranked higher than 12th, and 6 of the bottom 8 ranked scoring defenses, so his opponents for his offense were hardly tough. Within the division, in 7 games, his offense averaged just over 17 points-per-game, which by itself would have been good for 27th in the league. Not coincidentally, his Giants went 1-5-1 against those divisional teams, only beating and tying Washington 20-12 and 20-20, and with Jones throwing for 360 Yards and 1 TD combined in both games.

 

Our Offensive rankings from 2020 to 2022 clearly stem from Allen and pretty much Allen alone, who’s done it all. Daboll even stated that he didn’t want Allen running that much too. Last season with the novice rookie Dorsey in charge, not only did the rankings not fall, but they tied Daboll’s best.

 

It’s far more likely that Allen produced Daboll, not visa versa. It’s my guess that Daboll doesn’t outlast his current contract in NY if even that.

 

Was Daboll the best hire? Would it have been difficult to find someone with better performance credentials?

 

 

Narrative:  McD was responsible for taking us to the playoffs in 2017 with Taylor at QB.

 

Facts:  That season we won 9 games. In 7 of those 9 wins we beat teams that ended up with 4, 5, or 6 wins on the season. 5 of those 9 wins were one-possession games. The worst one, a domed team, nearly beat us in an apocalyptic snowstorm at home. The only reason why we made the playoffs was due to the unlikeliest play by Andy Dalton on 4th-and-12 with seconds remaining. Andy Dalton!

 

In those playoffs, the best that we could do was to put up 3 points in our 2nd-worst offensive output of the season. The worst of course was vs. Carolina against the man that replaced McD, Steve Wilks, the aformentioned DC whose career has taken the aformentioned death spiral.

 

The 2019 season we won 10 games. In those 10 wins it was another hodge-podge of wins against teams that finished ranging from 2-9 wins. The only team with a winning record that we beat in the regular season was the Marcus Mariota-led Titans. In the playoffs we lost to a team that finished 14th in Scoring Offense and 19th in Scoring Defense.

 

McD did not “come on” until Allen skyrocketed his play. He’s been a massive beneficiarly of easy schedules, particularly in 2017 and 2019 where these narratives took root predicated all but entirely in superficial indicators. It’s beyond a safe assumption that Allen’s play almost exclusively is all but the entirety of why the Bills have been as good as they’ve been and that McD has been a restraint on Allen and the development and performance of this team, not a conduit for its ultimate improvement. It’s likely also why McD has said to “let Allen be Allen.” He knows his golden-goose.

 

I would have touched on Frasier and his lackluster defensive rankings in his 8 seasons of being a defensive coordinator prior to coming to Buffalo, namely …

 

28th/28th

21st/19th

12th/20th

13th/6th

10th/6th

18th/8th

25th/25th

26th/10th

 

… for an average of 19th Scoring/15th Yardage. Quite average.

 

He’s also had the advantage of a relatively easy schedule of offensive opponents, while being able to play 2 games/season against QBs like Newton, Jones, Wilson, White, Darnold, and McCown, Cutler, Tannehill, Fitzpatrick. Thompson, and an erratic Tagovailoa in his inaugural seasons.

 

In contrast, Frasier contributed to the Bills going 0-6 vs. New England in Brady’s last three seasons there, at the ages of 40, 41, & 42, by allowing the Pats to score on average over 28 points-per-game in those six contests, more than the Patriots’ average scoring in those seasons.

 

Was Frasier the best hire? Would it have been difficult to find someone with better performance credentials?  

 

I will say that it's interesting that now that he's gone the sentiment/narrative on him has diminished and he's become at least partially a scapegoat.  

 

 

That’s all factual. What one does with it is up to them.

 

Narratives are narratives, facts are facts, the two do not always align. IMO we begin to see the wheels fall off the wagon this season from a coaching perspective as McD embarks upon a schedule of offenses that he’s never seen before here or in Carolina. It will definitely be a defining season for him one way or the other as I see it.

 

From where I stand, McD’s ceiling apart from Allen being Allen, and he’s going to be Allen regardless of who’s coaching, is entry into the playoffs predicated upon easy schedules, while being unimpressively ousted in the Wild-Card Round of the playoffs, again, as a ceiling, based on the above and without “Allen being Allen.” He has benefitted from having had 5 of the team’s 9 easiest schedules over the past 22 seasons.

 

If Dorsey can find himself and if Allen truly becomes more focused on correcting the things that are preventing him from being the best QB in the league, even better than Mahomes, then IMO we have the opportunity to be the Air Coryell of 2023 and beyond and the #1 offense in the league. If not however, then I think it’s going to be a rough ride. McD hasn’t proven that he can handle the most no-brainer decisions at the most important of times, having to coach the D as well as keep an eye on the O, IMO is going to prove to be too much for him.

 

We will find out one way or the other beginning in just a few months.

 

 

3 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

People also love to try and separate the personal portion of being a coach as if it’s insignificant. 
 

He doesn’t coach a sport, he coaches people. 

 

His job is to put together a winning team, not run a successful social clinic.  I'd be you tons of money that latter part isn't anywhere to be found in his job description.  

 

 

[PBF81]

48 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

 

I think this is just recency bias. Everyone remembers last year's playoffs and 13 seconds, but...

 

He coached literally a perfect game against New England, a legitimately competitive team.

He shut down the Ravens twice. They were very competitive teams.

 

To say he has never done anything in the coaching department in the playoffs seems like an emotional reaction that isn't accurate.

 

New England was all Allen being Allen.  You're also talking about Jones in his rookie season, where everyone defending McD dismissses in 2018 for Allen's rookie season.  

 

He beat a Ravens team with almost no offensive talent, but only once in the playoffs.  

 

Those were our two best playoff games and I don't see a lot of hallmarks of coaching being the difference.  

 

Immediately after that Patriots game he committed "13 Seconds."  That's a conundrum for those arguing pro McD. 

 

Immediately after that Ravens game we lost decisively to the Chiefs.  

 

 

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, nedboy7 said:

This fan base has a hard time managing prosperity. 

Or defining it

[PBF81]

50 minutes ago, Gregg said:

You will also need to Terry Pegula to become a George Steinbrenner type of owner for this to happen. 

 

Indeed   LOL  

 

50 minutes ago, Gregg said:

Better make sure the playoff game is at home as he is winless on the road. 0-4 JAC, HOU, KC (2).

 

Wow, I hadn't realized that.  Thanks for pointing that out.  

 

 

[JGMcD2]

20 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

His job is to put together a winning team, not run a successful social clinic.  I'd be you tons of money that latter part isn't anywhere to be found in his job description.  

I'd bet you tons of money that even if it's not in his job description, it's the most important part of his job (it's also definitely in his job description)

 

It's not a secret that winning is highly reliant on dealing with managing various people and personalities. 

 

Talk to any coach - they're not focused on the X's and O's... that's not what the players care about the most. 

 

Edited June 15, 2023 by JGMcD2

[Reed83HOF]

23 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

This is a good thought-inducing post!!  You've certainly gotten some good comments.  

 

I do think that people seem to be unable to divide someone being a "good guy" and being a good coach however.  It's quite possible that they're only one of the two.  

 

Here's my take ... as I step behind the chicken wire on the stage ...    

 

 

Narratives form, often based upon superficial constructs. IMO that’s been the case here. I’ll cite a few.

 

 

Narrative:  McD’s a great Defensive Coordinator.

 

Facts:  His defenses on average in his 6 seasons in Carolina averaged 17th in Scoring and 15th in Yardage. His defenses were incredibly inconsistent from season to season. His last season there arguably should have been his best if he were truly that good and his rankings not based upon circumstances, which they were. Yet, it was his second worst and only by a margin better than his worst there.

 

His successor, Steve Wilks, took McD’s 26th Scoring/21st Yardage D and turned it into an 11th Scoring/7th Yardage D, and he’s the farthest thing from being a household name in defensive coordinators as could possibly be. In fact, he was fired after that season and has been on a coaching death spiral ever since now on his fifth team in as many seasons and in varying roles and once at the collegiate level.

 

McD has benefitted from having had 5 of the team’s 9 easiest schedules over the past 22 Bills seasons.

 

Was McD the best hire to begin with, even strictly considering the defensive side ,much more any offensive prowess? Would it have been difficult to find someone with better performance credentials?

 

 

Narrative:  Daboll’s a great Offensive Coordinator.

 

Facts:  Daboll was an Offensive Coordinator for four seasons elsewhere before coming to the Bills. Here are his rankings in that role.

 

2009: 29th Scoring/32nd Yardage

2010: 31st Scoring/29th Yardage

2011: 20th Scoring/22nd Yardage (his pinnacle)

2012: 32nd Scoring/24th Yardage

 

Was he the best hire coming in? Would it have been difficult to find someone with better performance credentials?

 

Then he came here. In his first two seasons these were his rankings here.

 

2018: 30th Scoring/30th Yardage

2019: 23rd Scoring/24th Yardage

 

Through those 6 seasons that’s an average of over 26th Scoring and 27th Yardage.

 

The argument is that he is the one largely responsible for Allen’s development in Allen’s 3rd season, 2020. The reason why that’s unlikely is because to start, that’s the season that Diggs showed up, it was also Allen’s third season when it’s a well known maxim that QBs typically take three seasons (or so) to develop, and Allen didn’t develop slowly, he exploded, going from ranked in the bottom quartile of the league in most metrics in 2020 to near the top and nearly top-10 across the board. He nearly doubled his passing TDs and added 50% to his passing yardage total.

 

The question then becomes, was this Daboll that was behind that leap in performance? I don’t see how it could have been since the entire football world knows that Allen’s style of play is unique to him and predicated all but entirely upon his semi-freestyling play, and with the coaches “letting Allen be Allen” as stated by them.

 

But more relevantly perhaps, if Daboll was responsible, then how come the best he could do with Daniel Jones, in Jones’ 4th season, was a 3,205, 15 TD, 5 INT performance, only marginally up from Jones’ prior two seasons, worse than Jones’ rookie season, and worse than Allen’s 2nd season in 2019, and leading the Giants to the 15th Scoring/18th Yardage rankings. That after 8 seasons of experience at OC and with one of the league’s best RBs for balance to boot.

 

Last season with the Giants outside of his division in the regular season, his offense faced only one scoring defense ranked higher than 12th, and 6 of the bottom 8 ranked scoring defenses, so his opponents for his offense were hardly tough. Within the division, in 7 games, his offense averaged just over 17 points-per-game, which by itself would have been good for 27th in the league. Not coincidentally, his Giants went 1-5-1 against those divisional teams, only beating and tying Washington 20-12 and 20-20, and with Jones throwing for 360 Yards and 1 TD combined in both games.

 

Our Offensive rankings from 2020 to 2022 clearly stem from Allen and pretty much Allen alone, who’s done it all. Daboll even stated that he didn’t want Allen running that much too. Last season with the novice rookie Dorsey in charge, not only did the rankings not fall, but they tied Daboll’s best.

 

It’s far more likely that Allen produced Daboll, not visa versa. It’s my guess that Daboll doesn’t outlast his current contract in NY if even that.

 

Was Daboll the best hire? Would it have been difficult to find someone with better performance credentials?

 

 

Narrative:  McD was responsible for taking us to the playoffs in 2017 with Taylor at QB.

 

Facts:  That season we won 9 games. In 7 of those 9 wins we beat teams that ended up with 4, 5, or 6 wins on the season. 5 of those 9 wins were one-possession games. The worst one, a domed team, nearly beat us in an apocalyptic snowstorm at home. The only reason why we made the playoffs was due to the unlikeliest play by Andy Dalton on 4th-and-12 with seconds remaining. Andy Dalton!

 

In those playoffs, the best that we could do was to put up 3 points in our 2nd-worst offensive output of the season. The worst of course was vs. Carolina against the man that replaced McD, Steve Wilks, the aformentioned DC whose career has taken the aformentioned death spiral.

 

The 2019 season we won 10 games. In those 10 wins it was another hodge-podge of wins against teams that finished ranging from 2-9 wins. The only team with a winning record that we beat in the regular season was the Marcus Mariota-led Titans. In the playoffs we lost to a team that finished 14th in Scoring Offense and 19th in Scoring Defense.

 

McD did not “come on” until Allen skyrocketed his play. He’s been a massive beneficiarly of easy schedules, particularly in 2017 and 2019 where these narratives took root predicated all but entirely in superficial indicators. It’s beyond a safe assumption that Allen’s play almost exclusively is all but the entirety of why the Bills have been as good as they’ve been and that McD has been a restraint on Allen and the development and performance of this team, not a conduit for its ultimate improvement. It’s likely also why McD has said to “let Allen be Allen.” He knows his golden-goose.

 

I would have touched on Frasier and his lackluster defensive rankings in his 8 seasons of being a defensive coordinator prior to coming to Buffalo, namely …

 

28th/28th

21st/19th

12th/20th

13th/6th

10th/6th

18th/8th

25th/25th

26th/10th

 

… for an average of 19th Scoring/15th Yardage. Quite average.

 

He’s also had the advantage of a relatively easy schedule of offensive opponents, while being able to play 2 games/season against QBs like Newton, Jones, Wilson, White, Darnold, and McCown, Cutler, Tannehill, Fitzpatrick. Thompson, and an erratic Tagovailoa in his inaugural seasons.

 

In contrast, Frasier contributed to the Bills going 0-6 vs. New England in Brady’s last three seasons there, at the ages of 40, 41, & 42, by allowing the Pats to score on average over 28 points-per-game in those six contests, more than the Patriots’ average scoring in those seasons.

 

Was Frasier the best hire? Would it have been difficult to find someone with better performance credentials?  

 

I will say that it's interesting that now that he's gone the sentiment/narrative on him has diminished and he's become at least partially a scapegoat.  

 

 

That’s all factual. What one does with it is up to them.

 

Narratives are narratives, facts are facts, the two do not always align. IMO we begin to see the wheels fall off the wagon this season from a coaching perspective as McD embarks upon a schedule of offenses that he’s never seen before here or in Carolina. It will definitely be a defining season for him one way or the other as I see it.

 

From where I stand, McD’s ceiling apart from Allen being Allen, and he’s going to be Allen regardless of who’s coaching, is entry into the playoffs predicated upon easy schedules, while being unimpressively ousted in the Wild-Card Round of the playoffs, again, as a ceiling, based on the above and without “Allen being Allen.” He has benefitted from having had 5 of the team’s 9 easiest schedules over the past 22 seasons.

 

If Dorsey can find himself and if Allen truly becomes more focused on correcting the things that are preventing him from being the best QB in the league, even better than Mahomes, then IMO we have the opportunity to be the Air Coryell of 2023 and beyond and the #1 offense in the league. If not however, then I think it’s going to be a rough ride. McD hasn’t proven that he can handle the most no-brainer decisions at the most important of times, having to coach the D as well as keep an eye on the O, IMO is going to prove to be too much for him.

 

We will find out one way or the other beginning in just a few months.

 

 

Nice post

[Thurman#1]

19 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

 

Narrative:  McD’s a great Defensive Coordinator.

 

Facts:  His defenses on average in his 6 seasons in Carolina averaged 17th in Scoring and 15th in Yardage. His defenses were incredibly inconsistent from season to season. His last season there arguably should have been his best if he were truly that good and his rankings not based upon circumstances, which they were. Yet, it was his second worst and only by a margin better than his worst there.

 

His successor, Steve Wilks, took McD’s 26th Scoring/21st Yardage D and turned it into an 11th Scoring/7th Yardage D, and he’s the farthest thing from being a household name in defensive coordinators as could possibly be. In fact, he was fired after that season and has been on a coaching death spiral ever since now on his fifth team in as many seasons and in varying roles and once at the collegiate level.

 

McD has benefitted from having had 5 of the team’s 9 easiest schedules over the past 22 Bills seasons.

 

Was McD the best hire to begin with, even strictly considering the defensive side ,much more any offensive prowess? Would it have been difficult to find someone with better performance credentials?

 

 

 

The stuff you're calling facts here are indeed facts, but facts carefully chosen to fit your own narrative. Fair enough, but let's not pretend that they're telling the whole story.

 

Anytime a coordinator switches systems, and from a defense that wasn't good anyway, the first year is likely to be pretty bad. It was for McDermott. After that he had four very good years in a row, followed by a bad one. 

 

As I pointed out above (and for years and years here, and it's not a thought original to me) Points Allowed is probably 30 - 40% offense and special teams. The way to isolate defense as much as possible is to look at yards. 

 

That's why they rank the team with the fewest yards allowed as the best defense. It's not perfect, nothing is, but it's significantly better than points allowed, which is more of a team metric.

 

And in his 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th years, their defense ranked in the top ten. That's consistency and effectiveness. Also fair to point out that his 6th year had a massive drop. That has to be considered as well. 

 

Oh, and part of the reason the schedules have looked so easy is because we have dominated the division, giving each of those three teams two losses most years. The more effective your team is, the less effective your field of opponents will look after the season because of the lickings you put on so many of them.

 

It is legit to say that we may have had some easy-looking schedules those years. But a team can only play who they're scheduled against. And in DVOA, which accounts for easy schedules, we've been consistently rated very high the last four years.

 

We weren't the only team interested in him at that time. That's because he was considered a very fine DC.