Terrel Bernard Discussion

[Einstein's Dog]

1 hour ago, Yantha said:

My hope is still that we trade down, and land Jack Campbell, but you have to find a trade partner to do so AND hope that someone doesn't trade AHEAD of us to steal him away.  I don't think it's a secret in the NFL world, that the Bills need MLB....

 

There seems to be this echo chamber that you can trade down and get Jack Campbell (JC)   Pure conjecture.  I believe JC is in a tier of his own at the top of the mlb rankings, and for good reason, he is a decorated, experienced, high IQ, big person with a huge RAS.

 

I believe the FO interest in what it would take to move up is based on getting JC.  The offensive weapon rouse was classic Beane.  The lb needs of NYG and possibly Dallas (if B Robinson is gone) scare Beane.  We've seen the FO get nervous before just last year and I don't think they regret it at all (remember our 4th Balt got went to a punter).

 

Another disadvantage to trading down is the FO would regret not getting JC in the 1st round for the 5 year deal.  JC is a great candidate to be extended after year 3 like the smart teams do when they know they have a keeper (see J Allen/D Knox/T White).   

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

What really struck me about him is that he really hasn't looked like the prospect those scouting reports describe so far. I hadn't watched him at all before the draft last year, but I found some videos after we picked him. I'm with those reports what I saw in college was an undersized, sub package, linebacker who looked great in space but struggled to hold up physically in the box particularly against the run. 

 

However, both in pre-season and limited regular season action for the Bills he has actually held up better than expected against the run, and hasn't been the non-factor I feared. The issue has been he has shown no coverage ability whatsoever. He looks slow in space and hasn't shown any of that sideline to sideline range. It is as if the guy on film at Baylor is not the same guy that turned up in Buffalo. I don't know if injuries at the end at Baylor have played a part, if he was just a bit overwhelmed by the NFL or something else but what we saw on the field last year was bad. Particularly in the areas he was supposed to be good. 

 

As for the "can he fill the Edmunds space" question.... I'm not sure the answer is yes even if we do get the guy from the film at Baylor in the longer term. 

I think sometimes a rookie LBers sideline to sideline ability is stunted because they aren’t confident in their assignments.  Processing is slow, hence they aren’t running around full speed.  Dunno if that’s Bernards case, but it’s a thing.  

[whorlnut]

16 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

There seems to be this echo chamber that you can trade down and get Jack Campbell (JC)   Pure conjecture.  I believe JC is in a tier of his own at the top of the mlb rankings, and for good reason, he is a decorated, experienced, high IQ, big person with a huge RAS.

 

I believe the FO interest in what it would take to move up is based on getting JC.  The offensive weapon rouse was classic Beane.  The lb needs of NYG and possibly Dallas (if B Robinson is gone) scare Beane.  We've seen the FO get nervous before just last year and I don't think they regret it at all (remember our 4th Balt got went to a punter).

 

Another disadvantage to trading down is the FO would regret not getting JC in the 1st round for the 5 year deal.  JC is a great candidate to be extended after year 3 like the smart teams do when they know they have a keeper (see J Allen/D Knox/T White).   

It’s hilarious that you think in any way Beane would trade up in the first for a guy with a second round grade. This is 2023…the league is geared towards offense. This isn’t the old days when anyone gave a crap about who your middle LB was. In fact, I’d bet the bengals and chiefs are sitting there hoping we do something dumb like you are talking about so more offensive players fall to them. 

[hondo in seattle]

For all those advocating for a 4-3 defense next season, I have an honest question.

One of the things we hear from coaches is that you need to get your best players on the field.  At present we only have one good LB.  We now seem to have 3 good safeties and, debatably, 3 decent/good CBs.  So why would we line up with 3 LBs?

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

18 minutes ago, Yantha said:

The instincts will come after a rookie season, but he's got to put on like 15-20 pounds to be a seek and destroy linebacker.

Im not even trying to say I think Spector will be good, I’m just throwing it out there. I’m all for a guy from outside the current roster coming in. I was done with Edmunds I was looking forward to the next chapter. I don’t think it will be Bernard but we’ll see.

[Snappysnackcakes]

Bernard was drafted as a backup to Milano. Historically speaking, Milano has missed his fair share of games and his position is very important in our system. Bernard is not going to line up at Mike and we’re definitely not going to use 3 LB’s consistently. I don’t know how creative they’re going to be with Rapp, as he signed a one-year contract, for the minimum, and he’s a very slow DB. Heck, he’d be considered a slow LB. If, somehow, Rapp plays a large part in our game plan, it may mean we run with ONE LINEBACKER and Rapp plays the Rover role. But my gut tells me that Rapp is nothing more than a depth piece. And Bernard is not a Sam, either. He’s a backup to Matt and that’s why they picked him. Also, you must remember that his draft was one where we didn’t have a lot of holes on paper, hence the forgivable reach. Don’t throw the whole “we needed help here and there” nonsense at me. When they were assembling the roster for that season, there were very few holes. Beane is very good at assembling a pre-draft roster to minimize reaches or picking out of need. However, we cannot enter camp with the Mikes we have on the roster. I do wonder if Miles Jack has been contacted and is waiting to sign after the compensatory formula wouldn’t be impacted. He’s a good enough stop-gap and still has a lot of football left.

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, nosejob said:

I like Bernard and Spector, but I am praying for Jack Campbell.  It's a reach!!!!! Not worth a 1st round pick at 27!!!!!!   Well Zerholtz and the Chiefs took him at 31!

 

They must not get it!!  There's no way we can pass on him cause he ain't gonna make it past 32.

If I am following that mock draft thread correctly,  Zervovoltz traded up and took a DL. It was the Lions pick at 31 that took Campbell. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

53 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

There seems to be this echo chamber that you can trade down and get Jack Campbell (JC)   Pure conjecture.  I believe JC is in a tier of his own at the top of the mlb rankings, and for good reason, he is a decorated, experienced, high IQ, big person with a huge RAS.

 

I believe the FO interest in what it would take to move up is based on getting JC.  The offensive weapon rouse was classic Beane.  The lb needs of NYG and possibly Dallas (if B Robinson is gone) scare Beane.  We've seen the FO get nervous before just last year and I don't think they regret it at all (remember our 4th Balt got went to a punter).

 

Another disadvantage to trading down is the FO would regret not getting JC in the 1st round for the 5 year deal.  JC is a great candidate to be extended after year 3 like the smart teams do when they know they have a keeper (see J Allen/D Knox/T White).   

The 5th year is important but its also irrelevant for this team right now. The SB window will have been slammed shut by then. 

 

[Dr. Who]

40 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

It’s hilarious that you think in any way Beane would trade up in the first for a guy with a second round grade. This is 2023…the league is geared towards offense. This isn’t the old days when anyone gave a crap about who your middle LB was. In fact, I’d bet the bengals and chiefs are sitting there hoping we do something dumb like you are talking about so more offensive players fall to them. 

I sometimes wonder if imbecility is contagious. If it is, I wonder if the distance of the virtual world is in any manner prophylactic. 

I say this because I suspect Einstein's dog, who is generally pretty astute, has been drinking from our Einstein's water bottle.

Then again, watch this regime trade up for Jack Campbell. 

[Virgil]

We can’t be the team we want to be with our current LBs on the roster 

[Dr. Who]

13 minutes ago, Virgil said:

We can’t be the team we want to be with our current LBs on the roster 

If it requires trading up from 27 to achieve the answer, the FO has massively messed up.

[LyndonvilleBill]

15 minutes ago, Virgil said:

We can’t be the team we want to be with our current LBs on the roster 

There's always Noah Sewel.😉

[Virgil]

1 minute ago, Dr. Who said:

If it requires trading up from 27 to achieve the answer, the FO has massively messed up.

I’m not for trading up because of the draft capital it will cost.  But if they do it, then I trust they think they are getting a difference maker. 

[Success]

1 hour ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

Terrell Bernard. Wasted draft pick. Discussion over. Sorry not sorry.

 

There is actually no basis for that conclusion at this point in time.  

 

[Einstein's Dog]

29 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

The 5th year is important but its also irrelevant for this team right now. The SB window will have been slammed shut by then. 

 

They say the draft is for the future.   And by drafting properly the SB window will still be open 8 years from now - we'll still have J Allen, the main component.

 

Most picks won't factor much in 2023 - IOL, WR, and especially TE would start as backups.  Jack Campbell has the quickest path to 2023 relevance of anyone they could take.

[whorlnut]

Just now, Einstein's Dog said:

They say the draft is for the future.   And by drafting properly the SB window will still be open 8 years from now - we'll still have J Allen, the main component.

 

Most picks won't factor much in 2023 - IOL, WR, and especially TE would start as backups.  Jack Campbell has the quickest path to 2023 relevance of anyone they could take.

Talking out of both sides of your mouth again I see. Yes, by drafting a WR, that would allow that guy a year to get acclimated to take over when Davis is gone. No middle LB is going to move the needle more than offensive weapons for Allen.  This team only goes as far as Allen takes them.  Jack campbell isn’t going to do that. 

[Chaos]

1 hour ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

He's listed at 224 pounds. If Beane or McD thinks that is ok for MLB then they are coaching a different game than I am watching. You still need size up the middle. He is closer to a big nickel safety than he is a MLB. If he was insurance if Milano got hurt then it was a complete waste of a draft pick when the team needed other depth players. 

It doesn't really matter though. Our only hope with this coaching staff is Allen scores 40 a game. Get 3 more guys that can contribute on offense and a LB, DT, or edge in the top 4 picks

Real question.  What did Edmunds do that Nickle Safties don't do? 

[KOKBILLS]

I think Bernard is a perfectly reasonable back-up for Milano... 

 

That's about it...At least right now... 

[Maine-iac]

What if we play a 4-3 and our LB's are Milano (MLB), Bernard (SLB) and Rapp (WLB)?  Could two physical safety sized players equal one LB and one CB?  If nothing else we have options and more cap space without Edmunds.  It'll be interesting to see if we have "better" or even "good enough".  I think McDermott calling the defense will make a difference but we'll see.

Edited April 9, 2023 by Maine-iac

[Rockinon]

It could be that the coaches felt that Edmunds didn't live up to the standard that Kuechly set and decided to go in a different direction. It will be interesting to see what they do at the LB position, but I do think the reason the front office liked Bernard in the first place was is ability to get into the backfield quickly and his speed. He wasn't drafted to be the next MLB at his weight.

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

There seems to be this echo chamber that you can trade down and get Jack Campbell (JC)   Pure conjecture.  I believe JC is in a tier of his own at the top of the mlb rankings, and for good reason, he is a decorated, experienced, high IQ, big person with a huge RAS.

 

I believe the FO interest in what it would take to move up is based on getting JC.  The offensive weapon rouse was classic Beane.  The lb needs of NYG and possibly Dallas (if B Robinson is gone) scare Beane.  We've seen the FO get nervous before just last year and I don't think they regret it at all (remember our 4th Balt got went to a punter).

 

Another disadvantage to trading down is the FO would regret not getting JC in the 1st round for the 5 year deal.  JC is a great candidate to be extended after year 3 like the smart teams do when they know they have a keeper (see J Allen/D Knox/T White).   

Maybe…. But I’d liken him to Poz and Tremaine.  2 guys we drafted high and let walk because they were “good” middle linebackers, but not great….. but got paid like they were great.  

[JGMcD2]

2 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

He's listed at 224 pounds. If Beane or McD thinks that is ok for MLB then they are coaching a different game than I am watching. You still need size up the middle. He is closer to a big nickel safety than he is a MLB. If he was insurance if Milano got hurt then it was a complete waste of a draft pick when the team needed other depth players. 

It doesn't really matter though. Our only hope with this coaching staff is Allen scores 40 a game. Get 3 more guys that can contribute on offense and a LB, DT, or edge in the top 4 picks

What does your ideal MLB weigh? 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

6 minutes ago, Rockinon said:

It could be that the coaches felt that Edmunds didn't live up to the standard that Kuechly set and decided to go in a different direction. It will be interesting to see what they do at the LB position, but I do think the reason the front office liked Bernard in the first place was is ability to get into the backfield quickly and his speed. He wasn't drafted to be the next MLB at his weight.

I’m sure they would’ve re-signed Edmunds if they could have, but they couldn’t touch 18 million.

 

Bernards skill set definitely doesn’t translate to MLB, but he has tools to be a very good coverage OLB giving big time scheme flexibility 

[Einstein's Dog]

41 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Maybe…. But I’d liken him to Poz and Tremaine.  2 guys we drafted high and let walk because they were “good” middle linebackers, but not great….. but got paid like they were great.  

I don't think the Tremaine experience hurts, 5 years of excellent average cost and a third rounder on the way out.  

[nosejob]

52 minutes ago, Rockinon said:

It could be that the coaches felt that Edmunds didn't live up to the standard that Kuechly set and decided to go in a different direction. It will be interesting to see what they do at the LB position, but I do think the reason the front office liked Bernard in the first place was is ability to get into the backfield quickly and his speed. He wasn't drafted to be the next MLB at his weight.

Agreed....Even if they sign Klein back, no way do they not get someone they feel will work.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

56 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

What does your ideal MLB weigh? 

245-255

I realize the game has changed and your MLB needs to play in space much more than 20 years ago.  But they still need to have size to play the run and be physical at the LOS when needed.

 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

6 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

245-255

I realize the game has changed and your MLB needs to play in space much more than 20 years ago.  But they still need to have size to play the run and be physical at the LOS when needed.

 

We’ve only had 1 LB weight over 240 over the last 4 years. I think Dodson is the heaviest (237) behind Edmunds (250).

 

[nosejob]

3 hours ago, NewEra said:

I think sometimes a rookie LBers sideline to sideline ability is stunted because they aren’t confident in their assignments.  Processing is slow, hence they aren’t running around full speed.  Dunno if that’s Bernards case, but it’s a thing.  

Couldn't agree more, we just went through 5 years of that.

[OldTimer1960]

11 minutes ago, nosejob said:

Couldn't agree more, we just went through 5 years of that.

And that guy is now making $18M/year.  Are you sure you are right on this?

[3rdand12]

9 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

And that guy is now making $18M/year.  Are you sure you are right on this?

Felt like it

[3rdand12]

24 minutes ago, nosejob said:

Couldn't agree more, we just went through 5 years of that.

Tremaine looked unsure for most all of his time in Buffalo.

Last season he improved in reading and 1st step. And began to Hit with confidence.

 But yes. Edmunds never looked like he was going to blow the play up

[nosejob]

16 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

And that guy is now making $18M/year.  Are you sure you are right on this?

Absolutely, that's why he ain't getting it here. Maybe the Bears will make him a star, who knows.

[NewEra]

54 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I don't think the Tremaine experience hurts, 5 years of excellent average cost and a third rounder on the way out.  

I didn’t say it hurts.  It’s just not what I want out of a first rd pick.  For a team like ours- a Super Bowl or bust team-  for the most part, i rate 1st rd picks on 2 things:

-number of Super Bowls won with this player- 

- do we resign this player long term.  
 

if we win a SB with the player, he was worth it.  If we don’t win a SB with the player in the first 5 years, do we like him enough yo pay him his big contract?

 

We had 3 legit SB chances with Tremaine.  The defense that he captained and called plays for got destroyed in season ending losses.  
 

getting a 3rd rd pick in return is a nice consolation for the pick not working out as had hoped.
 

 

 

 

50 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

245-255

I realize the game has changed and your MLB needs to play in space much more than 20 years ago.  But they still need to have size to play the run and be physical at the LOS when needed.

 

Kuechly is the prototypical MLB for this generation imo.  He weighed 235

[Rigotz]

6 hours ago, Orlando Tim said:

If we are gonna use Bernard as one of our two base LB then we need a second DaQuan Jones type to eat up blockers. Bernard can fly around but he is never gonna be able to eat up or shed a blocker, so we gotta keep them busy before he gets there. Secondly is if he our second LB I bet we go Big Safety a lot and have Hyde, Poyer, and Rapp on field together on most 2nd and 10 situations along with the usual 3rd and 10

So… Taron Johnson to the bench at $10M+/yr?

[NewEra]

6 hours ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

I know it sounds crazy and I know it’s not going to be popular but I keep going back to… what if Spector factors in here? The guy really was good in pre season and I know I have seen articles stating he was really getting after it in the offseason. There is a theory where the Bills think Edmunds replacement is in house. Obviously there is going to be some sort of competition. Everyone’s mind jumps to Bernard but what if it’s Spector?

I doubt we go into the season with Spector/Dodson as the top options, but I think Spector has an outside shot at the job in 2024…. If we sign a vet and don’t draft anyone.  There are a handful of FAs that, I think, would be almost as good if not better than any rookie, strictly for the 2023 season.  Spector and maybe Bernard will continue to learn the system and get stronger. Maybe one takes the job in 2024 or midway through 23. 
 

being forced to take a 2nd round talent in rd 1 because of need = 💩 

 

I think all of these LBers are overrated tbh.  All have significant deficiencies-  2 of them (Simpson and Sanders) have subpar instincts and experience playing the Mike while the most complete guy, Campbell, will get outran by every RB and TE as he ran a 4.65.  
 

 

[LyndonvilleBill]

20 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I didn’t say it hurts.  It’s just not what I want out of a first rd pick.  For a team like ours- a Super Bowl or bust team-  for the most part, i rate 1st rd picks on 2 things:

-number of Super Bowls won with this player- 

- do we resign this player long term.  
 

if we win a SB with the player, he was worth it.  If we don’t win a SB with the player in the first 5 years, do we like him enough yo pay him his big contract?

 

We had 3 legit SB chances with Tremaine.  The defense that he captained and called plays for got destroyed in season ending losses.  
 

getting a 3rd rd pick in return is a nice consolation for the pick not working out as had hoped.
 

 

 

 

Kuechly is the prototypical MLB for this generation imo.  He weighed 235

Kuechly was 242 at the combine and pro day.

 

[NewEra]

47 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

And that guy is now making $18M/year.  Are you sure you are right on this?

And he’s not here because it took him 5 years to figure it out. If he had played like he played last year, in 2021 and 2022, he’d still be on the team.  
 

The Giants paid Kenny Golladay 4-72M.  They weren’t right.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

22 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I didn’t say it hurts.  It’s just not what I want out of a first rd pick.  For a team like ours- a Super Bowl or bust team-  for the most part, i rate 1st rd picks on 2 things:

-number of Super Bowls won with this player- 

- do we resign this player long term.  
 

if we win a SB with the player, he was worth it.  If we don’t win a SB with the player in the first 5 years, do we like him enough yo pay him his big contract?

 

We had 3 legit SB chances with Tremaine.  The defense that he captained and called plays for got destroyed in season ending losses.  
 

getting a 3rd rd pick in return is a nice consolation for the pick not working out as had hoped.
 

 

 

 

Kuechly is the prototypical MLB for this generation imo.  He weighed 235

Bobby Wagner was the best LB in the NFL for most of the last decade playing at 240-245 lbs. And that was on a 6ft frame. 

We can go back and forth with multiple examples. 

Hope I'm wrong and he can play. If not he will go down as even a worse pick than Ford.

 

[NewEra]

4 minutes ago, LyndonvilleBill said:

Kuechly was 242 at the combine and pro day.

 

And he was also weighed at 236-  who knows what he played at-  players usually lose weight during the season. I’m quite confidant that he played several games under 240.  

My point was- Ethan wants his Mike to be 245-255.  You want your Mike weighing 255?  Edmunds is the the most athletic big man freak MLB in history and he weighed 250.  Guys with that kind of body usually don’t run like Maine.  

 

I’d much rather have mine 235-245. 255 is a 4-3 DE. 

[Einstein's Dog]

3 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

I sometimes wonder if imbecility is contagious. If it is, I wonder if the distance of the virtual world is in any manner prophylactic. 

I say this because I suspect Einstein's dog, who is generally pretty astute, has been drinking from our Einstein's water bottle.

Then again, watch this regime trade up for Jack Campbell. 

Doc - I understand I have a different viewpoint.  But you do have to admit the whole "reach" discussion is based on people's expectations.   

 

I can't stop people from losing their mind when the Bills move up to draft Jack Campbell but I can give fair warning.  In my mind it makes sense.

 

Beane would be moving up to get ahead of the Giants.  It would be especially painful for Beane to be sniped by Shoen/Giants for JC.  The threat of the Giants is real - currently their starting lb is someone named Bobby Okereke.  Give me a break, that sounds pathetic.  The needs writeup says the Giants need an lb, "a run thumper would be perfect".   I can understand moving ahead of the Giants.