Jim Kubiak analysis in The Buffalo News (paywall) - the Bills o-line was horrible

[BuffaloRebound]

8 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

What if's he calling that because that's what he's good at. How many times have we seen josh miss open guys on short passes?

I think most of those misses are because the short pass is his 4th or 5th option and by then the pass rush is on him. How often does he miss when the ball is out of his hands quickly?  The bigger question is whether there’s anybody on the current Bills coaching staff Josh respects enough to listen to because right now Josh is a wild stallion relying only on his immense talent.  Somebody’s gotta reign him in and teach him how to play championship football. 

[dorquemada]

14 minutes ago, Dan said:

Quoted for truth. 
 

It seems they’ve been trying to get the right players to perfect the defensive scheme they installed 5 years ago.   But they don’t realize the league figured that scheme out long ago. Time to move on. 
 

Similar to the offense, they go figured out about week 4.  Dorsey didn’t adapt, and the line especially was exposed. 

 

Paraphrasing the line about Communism;

 

The Scheme Cannot Fail, It Can Only Be Failed

[Scott7975]

18 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

What if's he calling that because that's what he's good at. How many times have we seen josh miss open guys on short passes?

 

Josh was 11/15 throwing between behind the LoS and within 5 yards of the LoS against Cinci. 8/10 1 TD last week against Miami. Not all misses are on Josh either.  I can think of a couple on Cook for example that lead to INTs.  I can also think of some of the bad throws he has had that probably stick out in your mind but he completes short passes more than you think.  Josh can throw short just fine.

Edited January 25, 2023 by Scott7975

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

… and Dorsey was consistently outschemed. Allen was bad too, but the circumstances created by the o-line debacle account for some of that. https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/jim-kubiak-josh-allen-runs-out-of-the-magic-that-helped-cover-bills-deficienies/article_246b2c2c-9c37-11ed-a844-dba9b7f6ece2.html

 

 

 

All correct. And water is wet too. Seriously though the defense and the coaching is getting a lot of heat. The biggest problem on this football team is the hideous offensive line play.

[Low Positive]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

I think most of those misses are because the short pass is his 4th or 5th option and by then the pass rush is on him. How often does he miss when the ball is out of his hands quickly?  The bigger question is whether there’s anybody on the current Bills coaching staff Josh respects enough to listen to because right now Josh is a wild stallion relying only on his immense talent.  Somebody’s gotta reign him in and teach him how to play championship football. 

Or he need to make this adjustment himself. He's a veteran in the league now, so he can go to the coaching staff himself. I love Josh Allen, but at some point you have to hold the only player on offense who touches the ball on every play accountable.

[Livinginthepast]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

It was the Jags game last year without the 3 turnovers and with a much better offense on the other side. Or for another example watch Mahomes against the Buccaneers in the Super Bowl. Any offense becomes dysfunctional when the OL is getting beaten that badly on most plays.

 

Another thing that frustrates me about this article is it made me realize how stale our defense has become. Frazier's scheme has gotten figured out and easy to counter. Lou Anurumo's versatile scheme had us reeling all game long.

 

Playoff games are won in the trenches and in coaching. We were totally outmatched in both on offense and defense.

Im convinced that if both Frazier and Dorsey had allowed  Josh and the defensive captain to call the plays on the field and taken the coaching out of the game entirely, the results would have been better.  Both the coordinators were outcoached and outwitted by their opposite numbers. 

Edited January 25, 2023 by Livinginthepast

[Beck Water]

6 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

I really don't want to die on the "Josh Allen Sucks" hill, because I love the guy and how he plays. But he does have trouble hitting receivers in stride on short routes. I just watched Joe Burrow Tom Brady us to death with 5 yard passes with YAC and I was left wondering if Josh is willing or able to play like that. I wonder that because it's what wins in the biggest games. Mahomes plays the same way, but he's flashier doing it. To put a finer point on it, I can't think of an offense that won the SB that was as dependent on the deep passing game as the Bills are. 

 

*ding*ding*ding*ding

Willing

 

It's true that Josh struggled a bit in the first weeks after his elbow injury, when he had to revert to his previous throwing motion.  But it's not generally true, and hasn't been since 2019.

 

Something is off with either play design, or how Josh was being coached, this season.  It's like when Daboll left the building and Dorsey moved upstairs, they were all scared to ruin the "special plays Josh can make" if they got in his grill and told him to take the open checkdowns and let his guys get YAC, and no one was left who would rein him in. 

 

I will say this, to my eyes a lot of the season the intermediate options were lacking.  Teams were flooding the middle of the field and giving Josh only the short checkdown or the deep shot.  But it's not that he can't hit those short checkdowns, it's that he won't. 

 

Except that he did, last season, and even in some games this season.

Edited January 25, 2023 by Beck Water

[Coach Tuesday]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

All correct. And water is wet too. Seriously though the defense and the coaching is getting a lot of heat. The biggest problem on this football team is the hideous offensive line play.

 

Allen and the playcalling are a close second.  Here's another analysis with no paywall:

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/film-room/2023/lou-anarumo-cincinnatis-defensive-wizard

[Scott7975]

11 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

I really don't want to die on the "Josh Allen Sucks" hill, because I love the guy and how he plays. But he does have trouble hitting receivers in stride on short routes. I just watched Joe Burrow Tom Brady us to death with 5 yard passes with YAC and I was left wondering if Josh is willing or able to play like that. I wonder that because it's what wins in the biggest games. Mahomes plays the same way, but he's flashier doing it. To put a finer point on it, I can't think of an offense that won the SB that was as dependent on the deep passing game as the Bills are. 

 

Because those guys werent being covered.  Our DBs played off in zone and left huge holes in the zones that the receivers for the Bengals set up in.  Our receivers were covered like glue most of the game.

[Low Positive]

Just now, Scott7975 said:

 

Because those guys werent being covered.  Our DBs played off in zone and left huge holes in the zones that the receivers for the Bengals set up in.  Our receivers were covered like glue most of the game.

That's the adjustment that the Bengals made midseason to mitigate their own poor OL play. The Bills kept taking 7 step drops.

[ddaryl]

4 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Well, obviously you do or you wouldn't type it, but it's kind of hard to have a discussion if you don't provide evidence or examples to bolster what you say.

 

I watch Cover1 film breakdowns, I read Jim Kubiak's QB analysis which includes film breakdowns, anything other guys put out like Kurt Warner or Brett Kollman, I subscribed to NFL+ premium and watched all-22 myself about halfway through the season, I'm not a football guru but

1) that's not what I see

2) that's not what people who know ball and break down the film (see above) are saying.

 

A lot of times when Allen did scramble, it was to the outside, not up the middle.

 

 

 

Where were all the short crossing patterrns, where were the quick slants.. They were very rare. Our screen game was mostly to the outside. How many dump offs did we see between the hashmarks?

I too watched film and yes there were players open on the shorter routes but most time they were off to sides. Lots of tiimes we had 3 WRs 15 to 20 yards down field

this was by design so I ask why? You think Allen is incapable of throwing short? Allen was not getting the ball out quick enough and took a lot of sacks this year. Our OL is below average, but he was also waiting for plays to develop and while he was waiting pressure came and he either fired the long ball or took the sack. A good OC would have better designed outlets... Our dsesigned outlet was Allen scambles and that was shut down.  

I started asking about crossing patterns and quick slants mid season and it never changed.

[Beck Water]

6 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

Or he need to make this adjustment himself. He's a veteran in the league now, so he can go to the coaching staff himself. I love Josh Allen, but at some point you have to hold the only player on offense who touches the ball on every play accountable.

 

There's some validity to this, but there's also a valid point that one purpose of the coaching staff is to bring the best performance out of the players, help set them up and enable them to perform, and provide the insight of an external observer.  If the offensive coaching staff isn't doing this, then what are they doing?

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

Allen and the playcalling are a close second.  Here's another analysis with no paywall:

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/film-room/2023/lou-anarumo-cincinnatis-defensive-wizard

 

They were allowed to get away too long being a "station to station" offense. It came back to bite them on Sunday, for sure. 

[Low Positive]

Just now, Beck Water said:

 

There's some validity to this, but there's also a valid point that one purpose of the coaching staff is to bring the best performance out of the players, help set them up and enable them to perform, and provide the insight of an external observer.  If the offensive coaching staff isn't doing this, then what are they doing?

The problem may be that one of Josh's best friends in the building is the OC who's supposed to coach him.

[Coach Tuesday]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They were allowed to get away too long being a "station to station" offense. It came back to bite them on Sunday, for sure. 

 

Agreed.  But a lot of that is on Allen.  Look at that first clip, the first play of the game, Allen doesn't even bother to check the defense pre-snap (part of that is because Dorsey takes too long to get the plays in).  Had he surveyed the defense he would've seen they were taking away McKenzie and would've pumped to him and then fed Motor on the dumpoff to the backside which could've gone to the bloody house.

[BuffaloRebound]

6 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

Or he need to make this adjustment himself. He's a veteran in the league now, so he can go to the coaching staff himself. I love Josh Allen, but at some point you have to hold the only player on offense who touches the ball on every play accountable.

I mean that’s a lot to ask.  Elway needed Shanahan to show him the way.  Elway is my favorite comp to Allen because there’s nothing on a football field those 2 couldn’t do.  They could beat most teams just winging it, but need more structure to take the next step. Cincy was scheming up blitzes on almost every play.  Could they have done that if we were pushing them around with a power run game?  The Ravens were pounding it down their throats so much that they had to take Hendrickson off the field.  

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

I don’t know what more Allen can do honestly. He’s the only player I ever forgive for this offense 

He can't do it all nor should be expected to. He's sometimes reckless but again thats because he's forced to be Superman.  He has one of the worst OL's in the NFL ranked around 27-28.  Our run game is a joke. Our WR2 is struggling.  Our TE is hardly elite. McD & Beane have failed our generational qb in every possible way.

[Beck Water]

2 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

That's the adjustment that the Bengals made midseason to mitigate their own poor OL play. The Bills kept taking 7 step drops.

 

 

3, 5, and 7 step drops apply to play from under center. 

 

The Bills run >70% of their offensive plays from shotgun

 

I don't watch that many Bengals games, but from what I have watched, they have always run a short rhythm passing game

Zac Taylor came from the LA Rams.  That short rhythm passing game bolstered by a strong run game seems to have been a McVay/Shanahan staple.

 

 

[Beck Water]

6 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

The problem may be that one of Josh's best friends in the building is the OC who's supposed to coach him.

 

Could be, although from things Josh has said in interviews (including his day-after presser) he has implied that he knows he is not running the offense the way Dorsey designed or intended it to be run at times.  And Daboll and Allen were clearly also very very close.

 

Whatever the answer, I agree with what I see as your underlying point that for some reason, coaching of Josh is lacking this year.  Perhaps Daboll was more able to say things in a way that Josh was willing to hear, or more able/willing to get in his grill as necessary.

 

I have the impression that Dorsey may not have a "middle ground" between over-the-top "Holy Spirit Comes Out of Him" yelling and patient "learning experience"

 

It also sounds to me that perhaps we can agree that despite the good numbers, overall the offense did NOT operate as smoothly and efficiently this year as last.

[HOUSE]

1 hour ago, Sargent Hulka said:

No, that O-line sucked all year. Allen's impressive running skills hid it. That was taken away in the playoffs.

You took me seriously, hey guys I got one 

[Low Positive]

Just now, Beck Water said:

 

 

3, 5, and 7 step drops apply to play from under center. 

 

The Bills run >70% of their offensive plays from shotgun

 

I don't watch that many Bengals games, but from what I have watched, they have always run a short rhythm passing game

Zac Taylor came from the LA Rams.  That short rhythm passing game bolstered by a strong run game seems to have been a McVay/Shanahan staple.

 

 

Nope. Last year most of their offense was deep passes to Chase or Higgins on the sidelines. Every play was a 50/50 ball that those guys went up and got. But Burrow took a lot of sacks. This year, they tried to enhance the OL to fix this, but it didn't really work. Burrow was taking sacks left and right in the early portion of the season waiting for plays to develop down field. He even complained about having to play against two high looks after the 19-17 loss to the Ravens in week 5. So, they made an adjustment this year around the bye week, moving to much shorter passes to get the ball out quicker. He also stopped trying to force the ball to Chase and started using all of the offensive weapons that he has. Chase, to his credit, never complained. That's what you saw on Sunday. If we had played the Bengals in week three this year, their offense would have been much different.

[billieve420]

This is nothing new everyone could see how bad this line was from just watching them over the years. Josh masks number of deficiencies to make them look passable. I would blow it up and start over. Draft LT who can compete on the right side with Brown and eventually take over for Dawkins. Move Bates to Center who I don't think is a huge drop off from Morse. Upgrade both Guard positions.

 

Offseason focus should be developing run game which does not make team so one dimensional and dependent on Allen.

[Low Positive]

1 minute ago, Beck Water said:

 

Could be, although from things Josh has said in interviews (including his day-after presser) he has implied that he knows he is not running the offense the way Dorsey designed or intended it to be run at times.  And Daboll and Allen were clearly also very very close.

 

Whatever the answer, I agree with what I see as your underlying point that for some reason, coaching of Josh is lacking this year.  Perhaps Daboll was more able to say things in a way that Josh was willing to hear, or more able/willing to get in his grill as necessary.

 

I have the impression that Dorsey may not have a "middle ground" between over-the-top "Holy Spirit Comes Out of Him" yelling and patient "learning experience"

 

It also sounds to me that perhaps we can agree that despite the good numbers, overall the offense did NOT operate as smoothly and efficiently this year as last.

Everything was hard. That's what's so frustrating looking at the Bengals play us on Sunday. Everything for them was an easy pitch and catch and they got YAC. There wasn't one play that made your jaw drop, but they moved the chains and scored TDs. I want the Bills to play like that.

[BuffaloRebound]

2 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

Nope. Last year most of their offense was deep passes to Chase or Higgins on the sidelines. Every play was a 50/50 ball that those guys went up and got. But Burrow took a lot of sacks. This year, they tried to enhance the OL to fix this, but it didn't really work. Burrow was taking sacks left and right in the early portion of the season waiting for plays to develop down field. He even complained about having to play against two high looks after the 19-17 loss to the Ravens in week 5. So, they made an adjustment this year around the bye week, moving to much shorter passes to get the ball out quicker. He also stopped trying to force the ball to Chase and started using all of the offensive weapons that he has. Chase, to his credit, never complained. That's what you saw on Sunday. If we had played the Bengals in week three this year, their offense would have been much different.

Very important point about Chase not complaining.  If we go to a more power run/short passing game, is Diggs gonna be alright with his numbers dropping?  

[Scott7975]

18 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

That's the adjustment that the Bengals made midseason to mitigate their own poor OL play. The Bills kept taking 7 step drops.

 

I agree but its not because Allen can't throw short.  I think its more because Dorseys plan is to take advantage of Josh's arm much like Miami's plan is to take advantage of Tuas ability for quick timing throws.  

 

They need to get back to basics and run a better offense and plan.  This offense actually has been figured out. I heard a few times this season about how complicated our offense is.  I also heard its part of the reason rookies and new players have problems picking it up.  My theory is this... good DCs that have figured out this offense can actually dictate what our offense does based on coverage.  They can basically funnel the receivers to where they want them to go based on their alignment and leverage.  If they can do this then wouldnt it be easier to cover the guys if you know what route they will run and where they are going to go?  

 

I mean, I dont watch all 22 but I do watch some plays that are put out there.  Our receivers are pretty covered. The Bengals especially did a very good job on coverage from the clips I have seen. It is true in part of what you are saying that Josh doesnt like to take the check down/short throw, but its not because he can't.  That is also part of the tendency that some teams were able to rely on.  I dont know if thats coached or Josh stubborness or maybe either his feeling of having to do it all to win the game... because he usually does have to.  Just like the missed short passes are easy to be in your mind, in my mind its easy to remember the couple times Cooks screwed Josh and did the wrong thing which cause an INT both times.

 

One thing I do know is that this O line has been terrible for two years. I thought it would be at least a little better this year because Kromer is one of the best in the business but IMO the line was actually worse.  That needs to be fixed or it wont matter what offense we run.  Also, just like with Daboll... this run game just seems disoriented from the pass game.  There is no flow or strategy to our offense.  Run plays are just put in there to say we ran the ball.  They dont seem to take advantage of keeping a team guessing.

Edited January 25, 2023 by Scott7975

[HappyDays]

49 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

The defensive scheme works... IF!  playmakers are making big time plays consistently, pressure on the QB / sacks coupled with turnovers.... When that doesn't happen the defense is very vulnerable. With the injuries we had to key players adjustments should of been made

 

No I think good offenses have learned our checks. Too many times the Bengals had an OL pulling and running straight at Taron Johnson. I love Taron but that is a losing matchup every time. That's how they gashed us in the run better than any other team they've faced this year. Obviously better talent helps but we were straight up out-schemed by their offense.

[78thealltimegreat]

18 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

He can't do it all nor should be expected to. He's sometimes reckless but again thats because he's forced to be Superman.  He has one of the worst OL's in the NFL ranked around 27-28.  Our run game is a joke. Our WR2 is struggling.  Our TE is hardly elite. McD & Beane have failed our generational qb in every possible way.

Funny you bring that LA they were talking this morning that the Bills also are one of the worst YAC yard teams in the league. So Allen is literally doing this on his own.  

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

21 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

Everything was hard. That's what's so frustrating looking at the Bengals play us on Sunday. Everything for them was an easy pitch and catch and they got YAC. There wasn't one play that made your jaw drop, but they moved the chains and scored TDs. I want the Bills to play like that.

 

From what I could tell... there were easy pitches and catches.  Allen either didn't have the time to find them, or was unwilling to throw them. 

[Buffalo Boy]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I guess Kromer didn’t work. I’m actually surprised. I would move on and try to get Greg Roman as OL coach/Run game coordinator.

   This strikes me as great idea if they could pull it off. Beane spoke about getting Dorsey help. He also spoke about not getting Josh hit ( overused in rushing o) so much.

    Roman knows rushing if he knows anything.

[CincyBillsFan]

57 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Josh was 11/15 throwing between behind the LoS and within 5 yards of the LoS against Cinci. 8/10 1 TD last week against Miami. Not all misses are on Josh either.  I can think of a couple on Cook for example that lead to INTs.  I can also think of some of the bad throws he has had that probably stick out in your mind but he completes short passes more than you think.  Josh can throw short just fine.

And how many times do you recall a Bill catching a perfectly thrown short pass only to get tackled on the spot?  It's so rare that our RB's make people miss after a short reception that we notice it when it happens.  Like McKenzie last week and Hyams a couple of weeks ago. I watch other games and two things stand out on their short passes: 1) guys are wide open and run for 10 yards before they're touched or 2) they break and allude tackles.

 

And how many time has Allen had to throw the ball into the ground at the feet of the RB on a screen pass? It's not a bad throw but a smart play to avoid an INT or tackle for loss.

 

 

 

 

[Beck Water]

17 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

 

 

Where were all the short crossing patterrns, where were the quick slants.. They were very rare. Our screen game was mostly to the outside. How many dump offs did we see between the hashmarks?

I too watched film and yes there were players open on the shorter routes but most time they were off to sides. Lots of tiimes we had 3 WRs 15 to 20 yards down field

this was by design so I ask why? You think Allen is incapable of throwing short? Allen was not getting the ball out quick enough and took a lot of sacks this year. Our OL is below average, but he was also waiting for plays to develop and while he was waiting pressure came and he either fired the long ball or took the sack. A good OC would have better designed outlets... Our dsesigned outlet was Allen scambles and that was shut down.  

I started asking about crossing patterns and quick slants mid season and it never changed.

 

Good stuff here, Thanks.  So it's been discussed here ad nauseum that the Bills don't seem able to run a screen game (other than the occasional bubble screen) to save their lives.  Now I may be mistaken - I learn more about football every day - but I've never heard of screen plays being run up the middle at the NFL level.  I thought the whole idea was to fake pass protection (including the RB) then release to the flat.   But the whole "Screen Game and Why Don't the Bills Have One?" is a giant sucking sound.

 

You have a valid point that there seemed to be a lot of pass plays where the options were deeper passes and then short checkdowns.  To my eyes a lot of this was the Bills running 11 personnel and keeping Singletary and Knox in to block, or at least to chip and release.    Usually they would release to the edge, but to my eyes a fair amount of the time the back would slip out the center.

Someone put out a Heat Map on Twitter that showed over the season, not much difference in the target areas.  I do share your perception that the middle of the field went under- utilized but apparently objective mapping didn't show that. 

 

I just don't think it was Dorsey's offensive design nor done to keep the center open for Josh to run.  I think there was a stretch after the UCL injury where Josh wasn't throwing to the middle of the field because he didn't 100% trust his aim.  Better to throw for the sidelines where being off-target means an OOB throw vs. the middle of the field where off-target means a pick.

 

I also think that the lack of a slot receiver Josh trusted to get open against zone (and Knox assigned to blocking duties chip and release) played a role.  Once Crowder went down, I don't think Josh trusted McKenzie to run the correct route or catch the ball cleanly in traffic.

 

I saw us running layered concepts a lot, with short and intermediate crossing routes.  The deep INT to Brown in the MIA playoff game was one of those.  We were in heavy personnel 22 with Brown as the only receiver, but we had Morris running a shallow crosser and Gilliam up the side.

 

Anyway, good convo, thanks.  What would be really cool would be to see, not a heat map of throws, but some kind of heat map of actual routes run.  It would probably take some doing to get it to not be unintelligible spaghetti, but I'd really like to see some objective data on what routes were really there.

 

 

 

 

29 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Funny you bring that LA they were talking this morning that the Bills also are one of the worst YAC yard teams in the league. So Allen is literally doing this on his own.  

 

This is just my perception, but I think a lot of the lack of YAC has to do with Allen being unwilling (or the play not being designed) to take the checkdown option quickly in the play when there is a lot of space to run after the catch.  if he would hit those early in the play when the receiver has lots o' space, he would get more YAC.  But by design or by preference, Allen waits and buys time for the deep routes to open, and by the time he throws a checkdown coverage has closed in.

 

My perception anyway.

[CincyBillsFan]

40 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

Nope. Last year most of their offense was deep passes to Chase or Higgins on the sidelines. Every play was a 50/50 ball that those guys went up and got. But Burrow took a lot of sacks.

I watched almost every Bengal game last season and this is true.  And it got the Bengal's to the Super Bowl a game they almost won.  And the Bengal's did this without the benefit of a QB like Allen who if he played for the Bengal's last season would have avoided a lot of those sacks and turned them into even more big plays downfield or big time runs.

 

But then again the Bengal's stable of skill players is vastly superior to what the Bills can put on the field. If we had the Bengal's or the Eagles or the Dolphins or even the Chiefs weapons the Bills would be a Super Bowl team with Allen at the helm.  And this is why the WORST thing we could do is tame Allen into throwing more check downs and short passes. 

 

The answer is simple:  focus the overwhelming percent of your coaching, FA  signings and draft capital on boosting the O line and skill players.  I'll leave it to the professionals on the Bills s to how they do it.  But there is no alternative to this especially the argument that Allen needs to stop ignoring those big time 5 yard throws.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[dave mcbride]

20 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Good stuff here, Thanks.  So it's been discussed here ad nauseum that the Bills don't seem able to run a screen game (other than the occasional bubble screen) to save their lives.  Now I may be mistaken - I learn more about football every day - but I've never heard of screen plays being run up the middle at the NFL level.  I thought the whole idea was to fake pass protection (including the RB) then release to the flat.   But the whole "Screen Game and Why Don't the Bills Have One?" is a giant sucking sound.

 

You have a valid point that there seemed to be a lot of pass plays where the options were deeper passes and then short checkdowns.  To my eyes a lot of this was the Bills running 11 personnel and keeping Singletary and Knox in to block, or at least to chip and release.    Usually they would release to the edge, but to my eyes a fair amount of the time the back would slip out the center.

Someone put out a Heat Map on Twitter that showed over the season, not much difference in the target areas.  I do share your perception that the middle of the field went under- utilized but apparently objective mapping didn't show that. 

 

I just don't think it was Dorsey's offensive design nor done to keep the center open for Josh to run.  I think there was a stretch after the UCL injury where Josh wasn't throwing to the middle of the field because he didn't 100% trust his aim.  Better to throw for the sidelines where being off-target means an OOB throw vs. the middle of the field where off-target means a pick.

 

I also think that the lack of a slot receiver Josh trusted to get open against zone (and Knox assigned to blocking duties chip and release) played a role.  Once Crowder went down, I don't think Josh trusted McKenzie to run the correct route or catch the ball cleanly in traffic.

 

I saw us running layered concepts a lot, with short and intermediate crossing routes.  The deep INT to Brown in the MIA playoff game was one of those.  We were in heavy personnel 22 with Brown as the only receiver, but we had Morris running a shallow crosser and Gilliam up the side.

 

Anyway, good convo, thanks.  What would be really cool would be to see, not a heat map of throws, but some kind of heat map of actual routes run.  It would probably take some doing to get it to not be unintelligible spaghetti, but I'd really like to see some objective data on what routes were really there.

 

 

 

 

 

This is just my perception, but I think a lot of the lack of YAC has to do with Allen being unwilling (or the play not being designed) to take the checkdown option quickly in the play when there is a lot of space to run after the catch.  if he would hit those early in the play when the receiver has lots o' space, he would get more YAC.  But by design or by preference, Allen waits and buys time for the deep routes to open, and by the time he throws a checkdown coverage has closed in.

 

My perception anyway.

Maybe this is recency bias, but Allen seemed to have a couple of problems with slants in the second half of the season -- inaccuracy and batted balls. He missed Gabe Davis on a slant (behind him) a couple of games ago and it wasn't the first time. In the playoff game vs Miami, he threw behind Beasley on what I think was a slant and then forced the ball to him the next play (it was picked off). He also had a seemingly large number of passes batted down, and at least a couple were on slants to Diggs. In the Detroit game, he had Diggs open on a slant in the EZ but it was batted and picked off. 

[Low Positive]

19 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

I watched almost every Bengal game last season and this is true.  And it got the Bengal's to the Super Bowl a game they almost won.  And the Bengal's did this without the benefit of a QB like Allen who if he played for the Bengal's last season would have avoided a lot of those sacks and turned them into even more big plays downfield or big time runs.

 

But then again the Bengal's stable of skill players is vastly superior to what the Bills can put on the field. If we had the Bengal's or the Eagles or the Dolphins or even the Chiefs weapons the Bills would be a Super Bowl team with Allen at the helm.  And this is why the WORST thing we could do is tame Allen into throwing more check downs and short passes. 

 

The answer is simple:  focus the overwhelming percent of your coaching, FA  signings and draft capital on boosting the O line and skill players.  I'll leave it to the professionals on the Bills s to how they do it.  But there is no alternative to this especially the argument that Allen needs to stop ignoring those big time 5 yard throws.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bengals and Eagles have QBs on rookie deals, and the Bengals have their three best offensive players as well as their starting LT on rookie deals. That really helps.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Looking at these two stats seem out of alignment.  I'd have thought with only an 8 minute difference in TOP wouldn't hve yielded such a difference in number of drives??

 

Only eight Bills offensive possessions

Time of Possession: Bengals' 33:54 to Bills' 26:06

[dave mcbride]

18 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

I watched almost every Bengal game last season and this is true.  And it got the Bengal's to the Super Bowl a game they almost won.  And the Bengal's did this without the benefit of a QB like Allen who if he played for the Bengal's last season would have avoided a lot of those sacks and turned them into even more big plays downfield or big time runs.

 

But then again the Bengal's stable of skill players is vastly superior to what the Bills can put on the field. If we had the Bengal's or the Eagles or the Dolphins or even the Chiefs weapons the Bills would be a Super Bowl team with Allen at the helm.  And this is why the WORST thing we could do is tame Allen into throwing more check downs and short passes. 

 

The answer is simple:  focus the overwhelming percent of your coaching, FA  signings and draft capital on boosting the O line and skill players.  I'll leave it to the professionals on the Bills s to how they do it.  But there is no alternative to this especially the argument that Allen needs to stop ignoring those big time 5 yard throws.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think you're basically right, but there's also situational football and having an overall plan each game. Versus Cincy, having a more controlled offense would have probably resulted in more production. My biggest issues with the offense outside of talent (admittedly the number one issue) are the lack of a fully integrated run-pass identity in which the two approaches mesh together (like in a Shanahan system) and week-to-week situational variation. Daboll, coming out of NE, fully had his head around that even if not every week was a success. His approach to the passing game too had a recognizable identity -- featuring receivers with great separation / big window ability. It's why they prioritized Emmanuel Sanders, who was almost always among the league leaders in establishing the biggest throw windows for whichever QB he was playing for. Diggs is that guy too. Davis isn't. Beasley was a window god, and the Bills really missed him. Don't get me wrong, though - the Bills offense was quite productive overall and did a lot of good things. But it needs a lot of work both philosophically and with regard to personnel.  

[Success]

Is it the talent - or coaching?

 

The Pats had Scarnecchia all those years, and there were times when he made lemonade out of lemons.  I really can't tell if our problems are talent, or scheme.

 

[Wraith]

1 hour ago, FrenchConnection said:

Everything was hard. That's what's so frustrating looking at the Bengals play us on Sunday. Everything for them was an easy pitch and catch and they got YAC. There wasn't one play that made your jaw drop, but they moved the chains and scored TDs. I want the Bills to play like that.

Agreed. In addition. the two Bengals TD passes were both on completely busted coverages that left the receiver uncovered. On the Hurst TD, at least it was a good play design that tricked the defense but the Chase TD was just embarrassing. I don't know who made the mistake but somehow the Bills ended up with both Marlowe and Edmunds covering the running back in the left flat, Poyer over the top of Tre White for one receiver on the right outside and nobody covering Chase from the slot or the middle of the field in general. It was way too easy for the Bengals.

[gordong]

So I'm supposed to pay for someone to tell me the O-line was crap??  

  I don't think so Tim. 

[Low Positive]

13 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

Looking at these two stats seem out of alignment.  I'd have thought with only an 8 minute difference in TOP wouldn't hve yielded such a difference in number of drives??

 

Only eight Bills offensive possessions

Time of Possession: Bengals' 33:54 to Bills' 26:06

The Bills lone TD drive was really long.