Great and pretty brutal assessment of Bills’ talent by Chris Simms

[Nephilim17]

Great video that succinctly defines the problem: lack of star players/difference-makers on both sides of the ball.

Of note: Florio suggests championship teams have a strong advantage with an offensive-minded head coach; Simms (who I think is smarter) says he hopes they don't fire McDermott. I'm leaning towards Florio's take on this given where the NFL is right now (and going to stay).

[Beck Water]

1 minute ago, Don Otreply said:

And our bad schemes helped us lose, 

All success Dorsey has had are directly the result of Josh winging it to make something happen, Dorsey is imo over rated, and yes, I was one on that wagon, I was wrong, he is two years or more away from possibly knowing his job. 

 

So an interesting point that Florio made about having an offensive head coach, was the "brain trust" aspect of having (his example) Doug Pederson, Frank Reich, and John DeFilippo on the Superbowl Eagles to have all the offensive creativity of all those offensive minds.

 

The thing is, the Bills tried to create something like that.  It wasn't just Dorsey.  They had Joe Brady, passing game coordinator for Championship LSU team and former OC for the Panthers; they had Mike Shula, former OC for the Panthers when they were winning, two division round appearances and a superbowl appearance.  They had Aaron Kromer for OL and run game.  They had a lot of experience and (presumably) creativity on the offensive coaching staff.  (and then they had John Butler given the title of "Passing Game Coordinator").

 

So then the question becomes, is it the RIGHT offensive creativity?  Shula ultimately lost a Superbowl, and crafted an offense that arguably burnt Cam Newton out.  I thought it suffered from the same problem as the Bills offense currently is - neglecting talent on the offensive side of the ball.  Brady was not "all that" in Carolina as OC, though I thought he was kind of a fall guy.

 

Point being, it's not enough to have a number of experienced offensive minds in the room crafting the offense.  They have to be the RIGHT offensive minds.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Beck Water said:

 

So an interesting point that Florio made about having an offensive head coach, was the "brain trust" aspect of having (his example) Doug Pederson, Frank Reich, and John DeFilippo on the Superbowl Eagles to have all the offensive creativity of all those offensive minds.

 

The thing is, the Bills tried to create something like that.  It wasn't just Dorsey.  They had Joe Brady, passing game coordinator for Championship LSU team and former OC for the Panthers; they had Mike Shula, former OC for the Panthers when they were winning, two division round appearances and a superbowl appearance.  They had Aaron Kromer for OL and run game.  They had a lot of experience and (presumably) creativity on the offensive coaching staff.  (and then they had John Butler given the title of "Passing Game Coordinator").

 

So then the question becomes, is it the RIGHT offensive creativity?  Shula ultimately lost a Superbowl, and crafted an offense that arguably burnt Cam Newton out.  I thought it suffered from the same problem as the Bills offense currently is - neglecting talent on the offensive side of the ball.  Brady was not "all that" in Carolina as OC, though I thought he was kind of a fall guy.

 

Point being, it's not enough to have a number of experienced offensive minds in the room crafting the offense.  They have to be the RIGHT offensive minds.

 

The other commonality between these Bills and those Panthers is they generally undervalued receiver in the draft and tried to get by with a lot of average guys. That has to change. 

[78thealltimegreat]

Diggs has suction cups for hands but isn’t a run after the catch kinda guy. Nobody on the Bills scares any defense that if Josh dumps the ball off to them they will do anything after the catch.
 

They need a receiver with speed and hands badly. They also need a receiver where Josh can throw up a ball to go get a contested catch. I’m fine with Diggs and Shakur and maybe Beasley for his last year but they have to seriously upgrade at least two receiver spots.  

[LittleSammy]

33 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Sounds like a Allen fan and not far off.  Regardless this team is/was on the cusp, however were completely outcoached and embarrassed yesterday.  Coaches got off easy in this video.  

This team has been on the cusp the last four years and has been outcoached each time. That tells us where the main problem lies. The big question becomes when are the Pegulas no longer satisfied with simply being on the cusp each year?

[Negan]

1 minute ago, LittleSammy said:

This team has been on the cusp the last four years and has been outcoached each time. That tells us where the main problem lies. The big question becomes when are the Pegulas no longer satisfied with simply being on the cusp each year?

Hopefully last night or this morning and they clean house later today I hope!

[Beck Water]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The other commonality between these Bills and those Panthers is they generally undervalued receiver in the draft and tried to get by with a lot of average guys. That has to change. 

 

Yes, as I said in the post you quoted - I thought that Carolina team neglected talent on the offensive side of the ball. 

Though to be fair, they drafted Kelvin Benjamin in the 1st round in 2014, and he had a 1000 yd rookie season that looked as though he might be the real deal.  But the rest of their receivers behind Greg Olsen and Benjamin were just scrubs.

[colin]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The other commonality between these Bills and those Panthers is they generally undervalued receiver in the draft and tried to get by with a lot of average guys. That has to change. 

 

 

aside from a lack of elite guys (to your point) there is a fundamental issue on the team, what we do as a front office and what we do as a coaching staff do not align.  letting wyat walk but signing saffold, the quinten spain debacle and that williams RT we paid and the flipped to RG, trying to sing that RB from washington who blew us off, and then drafting cook high and then trading for hines, the rotating and sitting of DBs and DL, like exactly what is the goal here?

 

do we want to run screens, do we not?  do we want to run the ball?  brining in phillips and lawson and bease and brown is the biggest alarm bell to me.  like, did we not have anyone better, are street free agents really better than who we brought in?  or is it just that they knew the scheme?

 

if we had any idea of what we really wanted to do this off season and put some work towards that as a team, we'd have been better.  instead, we rely on allen and diggs and a few others to make magic happen and just shotgun plays and players.

[HappyDays]

I will say the defense does have a built in injury excuse. Von Miller and DaQuan Jones and Micah Hyde all being out is too much, you could argue those are three most important defenders. I still was not happy with some of the defensive play calls yesterday but it's hard to overcome that much loss of top end talent.

 

The offense on the other hand has no excuses. We were down one starter from the beginning of the year, Jamison Crowder. The talent evaluation on that side of the ball has simply been a failure. Zero foundational offensive players drafted since Josh Allen. Knox is arguably the best pick they've made on offense which is really just not good enough. They have a ton of work to do on that side of the ball if they hope to compete for a championship next year. Personally I am all in on trading for DeAndre Hopkins and spending any remaining resources on the OL.

[Niagara Dude]

31 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

They really need to overhaul the entire scouting/pro personnel department because they're not cutting it.  The ONLY value free agent Beane has signed is Jones.  The entire 2022 draft class was a nonfactor during the 2022 season.  Their scouting and player acquisition strategy have been C-level and with Allen graduating to a high cap hit, that's a recipe for disaster if it's not fixed.

Beane needs to start drafting player with either great size or elite speed.  Enough with these undersized slow moving high motor player, this team needs more speed and more size at line positions.  Can anyone explain our 3rd rounder this season while Chiefs uses a 7th rounder on a RB who runs a 4.3 forty and is now their starting RB.  Focus on speed and size and enough with these good character players,  who cares if they cannot play.

[dave mcbride]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The other commonality between these Bills and those Panthers is they generally undervalued receiver in the draft and tried to get by with a lot of average guys. That has to change. 

Good comp. The Panthers tried for years to get by with the likes of Ted Ginn Jr and Devin Funchess. They then drafted a catch radius guy in the first (Benjamin). The DJ Moore first round pick in 2018 was wise, though - he is good. But Cam was nearing the end by that point and the Panthers’ window had closed.

[colin]

27 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

But how do we fix that?

 

We draft late and have next to no cap space.

 

The only way to address this, is to take a machete to the team.  I don't necessarily think that's the worst decision.

 

Where can we free up money?

 

Let all sizeable money FA's walk.  Cut Hines.  Trade Oliver.  

 

If there is a big fish out there in FA, we should shuffle the deck and free up that money to sacrifice good players (plural) to add another elite piece. 

 

step one, either mcd should be fired or at least frazier.  after that, they skeleton crew the D (which won't make too much go wrong, given lawson and phillips and jackson and that 4th string safety were playing our playoff game) and just do enough to get the O into a cohesive unit.  step two is the wane them selves off of tre white, hyde, poyer, edmunds, dawkins, guys who we pay a ton too but don't help us win games (or at least won't anymore).

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

I feel more strident than ever that this narrative can't be made about Josh Allen just needing to be better (he can ok!).

 

The organization needs to be held accountable. The moves made have left the team without enough talent to win to the level expected. They look fraudulent to me and many others. They've been riding the coattails of getting the QB right. JA17 is way down the list of where the focus should be.

 

Don't fall for the narrative, the real problem is this organization has made repeated blunders in staffing talent.

[dgrochester55]

I am an Orioles fan for baseball and the direction that these Bills are going remind me a lot of the Orioles between 2012 and 2018.    Both did a great job changing the culture of a long time losing team and added a core group of players that quickly turned them into a playoff caliber team.     For the Orioles, the downfall was not having a good farm team or signing the right people to address weaknesses.   When the good players lost a step or moved on, they were not properly replaced and the bottom fell out fast.  I am worried about the Bills going in the same direction.

 

When you look at the last three years, most of the players drafted or signed are not getting it done.    Defensive line is where this stands out most.   You cant spend a ton of money and high round draft capital on a defensive line and only end up with a deep rotation of average players.   Nobody properly filled the voids of Brown and Beasley at WR so we signed the actual Brown and Beasley back despite them being past their primes.   The line outside of Dawkins and Morse is a revolving door despite constantly adding veterans and drafting one or two per year. 

 

If Buffalo is going to stay on the top tier of the AFC and not regress, it starts with signing and drafting better players and finding out what changed in our talent evaluation to make it worse.

 

 

 

 

Edited January 23, 2023 by dgrochester55

[SCBills]

Just now, colin said:

 

step one, either mcd should be fired or at least frazier.  after that, they skeleton crew the D (which won't make too much go wrong, given lawson and phillips and jackson and that 4th string safety were playing our playoff game) and just do enough to get the O into a cohesive unit.  step two is the wane them selves off of tre white, hyde, poyer, edmunds, dawkins, guys who we pay a ton too but don't help us win games (or at least won't anymore).

 

Spot on!  This is the perfect assessment. 

 

Those guys are the guys we can thank for hopefully helping build this team TO the team that wins the Super Bowl.

 

...but they aren't the guys that seem capable of actually doing it. 

 

It's time to get rid of the coaching staff and gut the defense to build the offense. 

 

They won't do it, I fear... but we need to at least re-imagine this defense with new coaching on that side of the ball and a new philosophy.  Bend dont break needs to be gone... replaced with an aggressive defense that makes and gives up big plays to mask the talent deficiencies we will have there. 

[Billsfan1972]

Wait, but I was told all year that the Bills had one of the best Defences in the NFL and were ranked 4th DVOA and at the top all year long.  Now we know there were injuries and that accepted, but now after one game we are finally seeing how bad the D is? 

 

Everyone saying anything earlier this year was shouted down. 

 

Now it is about talent and coaching again getting a pass.

 

Again I repeat 2 drives January 2, nothing learnt and then the first two drives yesterday and the same result. 

 

Cincy punted once the first half yesterday and once on 4th & 1 from midfield. 

 

Colossal coaching failure.   

[EasternOHBillsFan]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

He goes to town here, and he ain’t wrong: https://www.nbcsports.com/video/buffalo-bills-josh-allen-tries-do-too-much-vs-cincinnati-bengals?ls=pftvod

 

He HATES the Bills.... why give this clown more time?

[blitzboy54]

There is absolutely nothing said in that video I disagree with. Simms is 100% spot on. 

 

[somnus00]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

Respectfully, I believe you to be conflating "difference maker" with "putting up stats".

 

Putting pressure on the QB is Chris Jones job.  It is not Daquan Jones job.  His job was what Star Lotulelie was supposed to do, and with few exceptions never did - soak up OL and free the 3T to generate pressure up the middle.  And he was doing it.  Settle told us we were gonna love him, but he isn't in the same league.

 

That's more than a "complementary piece" to my definition.  Someone like that is actually foundational and fundamental to being able to get pressure in McD's defense.

Agree. I think Jones might be our defensive MVP. He makes Milano, Oliver, Edmunds, Groot, and Von play better.

[EasternOHBillsFan]

8 minutes ago, dgrochester55 said:

I am an Orioles fan for baseball and the direction that these Bills are going remind me a lot of the Orioles between 2012 and 2018.    Both did a great job changing the culture of a long time losing team and added a core group of players that quickly turned them into a playoff caliber team.     For the Orioles, the downfall was not having a good farm team or signing the right people to address weaknesses.   When the good players lost a step or moved on, they were not properly replaced and the bottom fell out fast.  I am worried about the Bills going in the same direction.

 

When you look at the last three years, most of the players drafted or signed are not getting it done.    Defensive line is where this stands out most.   You cant spend a ton of money and high round draft capital on a defensive line and only end up with a deep rotation of average players.   Nobody properly filled the voids of Brown and Beasley at WR so we signed the actual Brown and Beasley back despite them being past their primes.   The line outside of Dawkins and Morse is a revolving door despite constantly adding veterans and drafting one or two per year. 

 

If Buffalo is going to stay on the top tier of the AFC and not regress, it starts with signing and drafting better players and finding out what changed in our talent evaluation to make it worse.

 

 

NAILED IT with the DL assessment...and I feel like the offensive line is built the exact same way.

[PetermansRedemption]

1 minute ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

 

He HATES the Bills.... why give this clown more time?

One can hate the Bills and be correct at the same time 

[pigpen65]

50 minutes ago, Jerome007 said:

For all the player talk, the COACHES should be the main focus of the blame. I ask again this: when has Dorsey mesmerized with good schemes, gameplans, creative formations, etc.? Players have to put in a position to win. Look at other teams for comparisons. Hey, just look at what happened yesterday: sure Burrows, Higgins, Chase are top notch. But they didn't have to be yesterday! Good schemes made them win. 

They used a second rounder on James Cook. He got five handoffs. They traded for Hines. I don't know that he got five handoff since they traded for him. So yeah, picking apart the talent of the players when they are playing for a guy that has no idea how to utilize them doesn't make much sense.

[EasternOHBillsFan]

Just now, PetermansRedemption said:

One can hate the Bills and be correct at the same time 

I don't want to hear from ANY of them today... Chris Simms, Nick Wright, Bart Scott.... NONE OF THEM. I don't care how right they are... I'll get my assessments from somewhere other than their ASSessments.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

Does everyone realize that the last Pro Bowler drafted the by the Bills was 2018 (Josh Allen and Tremaine Edmunds). 25 other teams have drafted at least 1 during that period, the 7 who haven't are all weaker teams. Time to reevaluate drafting and development? I'd say overdue.

[dave mcbride]

9 minutes ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

 

He HATES the Bills.... why give this clown more time?

Um, no he doesn’t. Josh Allen is probably his favorite player in the league.

[Radar]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

He's not wrong about the talent on the offensive side of the ball - the OL and skill players - not being comparable at all to the other remaining teams in the playoffs.

 

When he starts going off on how there's no (this player that player) on defense, I think he's missing that we lost Von Miller to injury and that we were playing without DaQuan Jones who has been key for us, and with Oliver and Phillips hampered.

Sorry but he's right on with defense also. Stats would seem we're better than the eye test shows. At those critical times they don't have those elite play makers. Other teams have improved in our division and we're falling behind. That's true league wide as well. We need better players on both sides of the ball. This isn't a coaching issue it's a talent issue. 

[Beck Water]

28 minutes ago, dgrochester55 said:

I am an Orioles fan for baseball and the direction that these Bills are going remind me a lot of the Orioles between 2012 and 2018.    Both did a great job changing the culture of a long time losing team and added a core group of players that quickly turned them into a playoff caliber team.     For the Orioles, the downfall was not having a good farm team or signing the right people to address weaknesses.   When the good players lost a step or moved on, they were not properly replaced and the bottom fell out fast.  I am worried about the Bills going in the same direction.

 

When you look at the last three years, most of the players drafted or signed are not getting it done.    Defensive line is where this stands out most.   You cant spend a ton of money and high round draft capital on a defensive line and only end up with a deep rotation of average players.   Nobody properly filled the voids of Brown and Beasley at WR so we signed the actual Brown and Beasley back despite them being past their primes.   The line outside of Dawkins and Morse is a revolving door despite constantly adding veterans and drafting one or two per year. 

 

If Buffalo is going to stay on the top tier of the AFC and not regress, it starts with signing and drafting better players and finding out what changed in our talent evaluation to make it worse.

 

On the one hand, statistically we've had one of the best defenses in football for the last 3 years - 2nd, 3rd, 2nd in points given up

 

On the other hand, it's inarguable that the defense hasn't been able to "close the deal" in the big game at the end of the year

 

I don't think there can really be an argument that the FA and draft investment on DL have not resulted in an adequate ROI during McDermott's entire tenure here.

 

As far as offense, I feel that we've been overachieving with underwhelming players.  I think the success we had with Beasley may be a problem, in that it depended upon his high level of skill at both reading the D and being on the same page as the QB in what he'd do in those circs.  I'm also told that a lot of the Bills plays allow the WR freedom to chose the route they run looking at the defense.  If so, too often this season it's resulted in two WR being too close to each other on the routes they choose, and bringing extra defenders into each others vicinity.

 

It also has the problem that when the D is playing the O in a way they may not expect, they may not be able to be on the same page with in-game adjustments.

Maybe we need a different offense that is more defined and depends more on scheme and play design to get guys open, than on individual football wisdom and vision to choose the correct routes based on what they see.

[harmonkillebrew]

We took a big chance that Gabe and McKenzie would take the next step being thrust into starting roles. Everyone bought the Gabe hype after that KC game.

But it was so bad they coaxed Beasely and Smoke off the couch mid-season.  Simms is right on. Bills need to invest in Josh's weapons. Need to sign a few higher end veteran WRs and draft a WR in the 1st.  Draft some interior Online and maybe bring in a vet RT to compete with Spencer Brown, who has been horrible in pass protection. 

 

Most teams build around their franchise QB. We've done the opposite in recent years.

[Gunsgoodtime]

Talent?  There is Josh Allen, and Stefon Diggs and a massive amount of defensive draft capital failures and Fa signings on defense.  I dont know if anyone gets  fired this year, but if McBean and McDermott can't get their head out of their defensive asses then they need to go.  They got lucky on 1 pick.  Josh Allen.  They suck otherwise 

[HappyDays]

Different analyst but same basic points. I can't disagree with anything he says here.

 

 

[skibum]

Funny that he goes on and on about the lack of talent on Bills' roster, then is suggesting the coaches should maybe be let go in the same segment. A team with no talent doesn't go 13-3 with bad coaching, and vice versa.

 

Earlier in the season, the narrative was very much that the Bills were the most complete team in football. 

 

I really think this is a lot of stupid hot takes based solely on yesterday's drubbing. 

[Gunsgoodtime]

2 hours ago, Beck Water said:

He's not wrong about the talent on the offensive side of the ball - the OL and skill players - not being comparable at all to the other remaining teams in the playoffs.

 

When he starts going off on how there's no (this player that player) on defense, I think he's missing that we lost Von Miller to injury and that we were playing without DaQuan Jones who has been key for us, and with Oliver and Phillips hampered.

He is not missing it, just realizing what the rest of us realize.  Outside of Allen they have failed miserably in the draft, which has been heavily focused on that DL that is invisible to any non Bills fan

Edited January 23, 2023 by Gunsgoodtime

[dave mcbride]

7 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Different analyst but same basic points. I can't disagree with anything he says here.

 

 

Good stuff.

[RobbRiddicksTDLeap]

That was harsh. But very accurate. There’s no question that there needs to be some “sizzle” added to this entree. But, where’s the cap space for that? 
 

The Von Miller signing really looks bad to me today. It’s one of those deals that’s not going to have the same value next year, as it did this year. And it’s a lot of money. If another DC is brought in, does Miller fit the same way? Hindsight is 20/20, if’s and but’s and all the nuts, I’m just saying that there’s not a lot of money in the cupboard for sizzle, let alone Super Bowl caliber sizzle. 

[jahnyc]

Agree with Florio on everything.  Brutal, yes, but highly accurate.

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

Good comp. The Panthers tried for years to get by with the likes of Ted Ginn Jr and Devin Funchess. They then drafted a catch radius guy in the first (Benjamin). The DJ Moore first round pick in 2018 was wise, though - he is good. But Cam was nearing the end by that point and the Panthers’ window had closed.

They had Steve Smith

12 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Different analyst but same basic points. I can't disagree with anything he says here.

 

 

I have been saying this verbatim for three years now

[dave mcbride]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

They had Steve Smith

Great player, but his last year in Carolina was 2013 and he had slowed down a little by then. His best season was 2005, although he was still elite in 2011 (Cam’s rookie year). I think Gunnar is referring to the post-Smith years.

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

Great player, but his last year in Carolina was 2013 and he had slowed down a little by then. His best season was 2005, although he was still elite in 2011 (Cam’s rookie year). I think Gunnar is referring to the post-Smith years.

Got it lol

 

shouldnt have just jumped in someone else's conversation 😂

[Gunsgoodtime]

9 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Different analyst but same basic points. I can't disagree with anything he says here.

 

 

Those tweets are exactly what I have been posting on here today, before reading the.  McBean hit on Josh Allen, but has pretty much failed miserably drafting, largely wasted picks on the Defense.  What player outside of Allen has played up to where they were drafted?  They have used the majority of our draft capital on defense and it has failed 4 years in a row.  How long can you have Josh Allen as your qb and you not make it to the Suoer Bowl and not be fired?  I think its a real question this year.  If they go heavy on Defense in April fire them on the spot, you obviously can't fix their mentality 

6 minutes ago, RobbRiddicksTDLeap said:

That was harsh. But very accurate. There’s no question that there needs to be some “sizzle” added to this entree. But, where’s the cap space for that? 
 

The Von Miller signing really looks bad to me today. It’s one of those deals that’s not going to have the same value next year, as it did this year. And it’s a lot of money. If another DC is brought in, does Miller fit the same way? Hindsight is 20/20, if’s and but’s and all the nuts, I’m just saying that there’s not a lot of money in the cupboard for sizzle, let alone Super Bowl caliber sizzle. 

I was one if the few that was disappointed we tied so much cash into yet, another old defensive player to cover up for the draft failures that we had already heavily invested in

[Wraith]

18 minutes ago, skibum said:

Funny that he goes on and on about the lack of talent on Bills' roster, then is suggesting the coaches should maybe be let go in the same segment. A team with no talent doesn't go 13-3 with bad coaching, and vice versa.

 

Earlier in the season, the narrative was very much that the Bills were the most complete team in football. 

 

I really think this is a lot of stupid hot takes based solely on yesterday's drubbing. 

Yeah, I've thought the same thing. The Bills record was 13 - 3 with the best point differential in the AFC and the second best strength of victory. They were a legitimately good team. A person can't simultaneously argue they were both under talented and poorly coached, unless you're trying to argue that Allen was super human.

 

Obviously, it is very important for the actual decision makers to figure out which of the two is the real root cause of yesterdays debacle. My vote is on the coaching, especially the coordinators in charge of the game planning. 

Edited January 23, 2023 by Wraith