We're on to Cincinnati(Bengals coming to OP). Sunday 1/22 at 3pm. Opening Line Bills -5

[Big Turk]

4 minutes ago, PaattMaann said:

 

trusted local weather people are saying no rain, just light snow during the game. Weather wont have an effect (for as much as you can trust the weather here).

 

NWS Buffalo is literally the authority on trusted local weather people.

Edited January 19, 2023 by Big Turk

[PaattMaann]

Just now, Big Turk said:

 

NWS Buffalo is literally the authority on trusted weather people.

 

Pat Hammer is literally the only weather source I trust. Aint no rain brudda, just a liddle snow. 

[Big Turk]

1 minute ago, PaattMaann said:

 

Pat Hammer is literally the only weather source I trust. Aint no rain brudda, just a liddle snow. 

 

I will never trust any local person over NWS Buffalo.

[stevewin]

1 hour ago, Johnnycage46 said:

 

This is the most ridiculous post I've ever seen here...we don't use the metric system here!!

This dude is an obvious troll not sure why anyone is responding to him

[PaattMaann]

7 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

I will never trust any local person over NWS Buffalo.

 

lol OK

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

Bills vs. Bengals: 7 things to watch for during the Divisional round

 

The plan in the defensive backfield

 

 

If Jackson can go, he would be a big boost because of how deep the Bengals are in terms of their playmakers on offense. They sport the best trio of receivers in the NFL: Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. Plus, there’s tight end Hayden Hurst.

 

The pass rush for Buffalo will factor in here. The secondary has to be ready, too.

 

Along with Jackson, cornerback Kaiir Elam could be busy. Burrow could certainly be looking away from defensive backs Tre’Davious White and Jordan Poyer–but make no mistake–the entire Buffalo defensive backfield is going to be busy and has to play well.

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, Caesar said:

 

You had brought up your ideas to beat the Bengals and I responded. Thought you may have more to add.

 

I am concerned about pressure vs our replacement oline.  But Miami had a beat up oline as well how was the pressure vs them?

 

We seem to have games where we get decent pressure and then games where it seems like we dont get any at all. Skylar had all day to throw last week.  Hard to say.  We lost a lot when we lost Von.  There is a reason Beane went and paid him so much.  I think we will get pressure but it wont be consistent and even that pressure is probably realiant on our secondary playing good coverage.

[Beck Water]

33 minutes ago, Process said:

Why do people feed the trolls 🤦‍♂️ They must be the mods children because on any other message board they would have been banned a long time ago. Just ignore them and stop giving them attention.

 

Hmmm, well.  This is an open message board. 

 

Anyone can make an account - all you need is an IP address and an email account, which, with gmail etc is "dime a dozen" now a days.

And, with the rise of mobile posting and inexpensive VPN, it's easy to post from multiple IP addresses.

 

So what, exactly, do you think that banning a troll accomplishes from the mods' POV? 

 

It's like a hydra, you cut off one head, and one or more heads can emerge, which can be done in a way that takes time to identify. 

 

That means from one POV, it's easier to keep the trolls in known identities and monitor them.  It's also (in theory) easier for the rest of the board to "see and avoid"

 

Which returns us to the question "why do people feed the trolls? 🤷‍♂️"  Or for that matter, the guys who may or may not be trolls, but have a knee-jerk negative reaction to everything and couldn't acknowledge a mistake or a valid counter-argument if it came with a brass band and a burst of confetti?

 

Why do they?

[dave mcbride]

6 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

Bills vs. Bengals: 7 things to watch for during the Divisional round

 

The plan in the defensive backfield

 

 

If Jackson can go, he would be a big boost because of how deep the Bengals are in terms of their playmakers on offense. They sport the best trio of receivers in the NFL: Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. Plus, there’s tight end Hayden Hurst.

 

The pass rush for Buffalo will factor in here. The secondary has to be ready, too.

 

Along with Jackson, cornerback Kaiir Elam could be busy. Burrow could certainly be looking away from defensive backs Tre’Davious White and Jordan Poyer–but make no mistake–the entire Buffalo defensive backfield is going to be busy and has to play well.

Um, Burrow did the opposite of looking away from Tre White 17 days ago ...

2 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

We seem to have games where we get decent pressure and then games where it seems like we dont get any at all. Skylar had all day to throw last week.  Hard to say.  We lost a lot when we lost Von.  There is a reason Beane went and paid him so much.  I think we will get pressure but it wont be consistent and even that pressure is probably realiant on our secondary playing good coverage.

This is simply not true. He was pressured all game and sacked 4 times. 

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Caesar said:

Do the Bills have more pressure from the ends with Rousseau or middle with Oliver?

 

Yes 😀

 

When the Bills pass rush works, it works because we're getting consistent pressure up the middle as well as from the ends.

 

The Bills D, if you haven't figure it out, is kind of weird.  It manages to be a top D as far as points and yards, year after year.  3 out of the last years now.

At the same time, we seldom send players to the Pro Bowl or have them recognized as All-Pro. 

 

It's sort of a "whole is greater than the sum of its parts" creation.  It's kind of like a boa constrictor, it gets in your way but you look at it and think it's just a snake and it kind of has a small mouth - what can it do to you?  Then you get to the end of the game, and find that it's wrapped around your ribs 3 times and the jaws are coming down over your head.

 

A distressing number of the points our D has given up were the result of offensive turnovers that put the D in a horrid position.

Edited January 19, 2023 by Beck Water

[Low Positive]

Just now, Beck Water said:

 

Yes 😀

 

When the Bills pass rush works, it works because we're getting consistent pressure up the middle as well as from the ends.

 

The Bills D, if you haven't figure it out, is kind of weird.  It manages to be a top D as far as points and yards, year after year.  3 out of the last years now.

At the same time, we seldom send players to the Pro Bowl or have them recognized as All-Pro. 

 

It's sort of a "whole is greater than the sum of its parts" creation.

That's the way a cover 2 system is supposed to work. 

[Scott7975]

17 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Um, Burrow did the opposite of looking away from Tre White 17 days ago ...

This is simply not true. He was pressured all game and sacked 4 times. 

 

Sorry I dont agree that he was pressured all game.  He had 45 attempts and a lot of them had all day to throw the ball.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

30 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

Bills vs. Bengals: 7 things to watch for during the Divisional round

 

The plan in the defensive backfield

 

 

If Jackson can go, he would be a big boost because of how deep the Bengals are in terms of their playmakers on offense. They sport the best trio of receivers in the NFL: Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. Plus, there’s tight end Hayden Hurst.

 

The pass rush for Buffalo will factor in here. The secondary has to be ready, too.

 

Along with Jackson, cornerback Kaiir Elam could be busy. Burrow could certainly be looking away from defensive backs Tre’Davious White and Jordan Poyer–but make no mistake–the entire Buffalo defensive backfield is going to be busy and has to play well.

I would think Jackson would go.

 

And the Bills still have Benford available. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

2 hours ago, Caesar said:

 

Makes no sense.

It is pretty odd lol not that they’re necessarily gonna be wrong but on nfl pickwatch (which aggregates all the expert picks) it’s 65-35 bills.  Not sure why ESPN is so aggressively the other way 

[PaattMaann]

22 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Sorry I dont agree that he was pressured all game.  He had 45 attempts and a lot of them had all day to throw the ball.

 

according to next gen stats, we had 12 different players who had at least 1 pressure on Thompson. He had 51 drop backs, so on AT LEAST 20% of his drop backs he was pressured. Add in the 4 sacks and I am positive some guys had more than 1 pressure, that percentage is likely at least 30% (cant find it, I can find that Allen was pressured 48% of his drop backs - which is ridiculous). So you can disagree, but just know that it isnt rooted in fact. 

[DCbillsfan]

29 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Sorry I dont agree that he was pressured all game.  He had 45 attempts and a lot of them had all day to throw the ball.

He was 18 for 45 220 yards.  Sacked 4 times for 31 yards.  2 interceptions and hit 11 times.  Each Bills D line guy had 2 QB pressures on him. He threw some nice balls during the game that were dropped but the Bills also had 10 passes defended.  Miami's offense had one decent drive all game that resulted in a touchdown.  Too many short fields allowed Miami to hang in the game plus the defensive TD.  Bills defense played pretty well.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

24 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Sorry I dont agree that he was pressured all game.  He had 45 attempts and a lot of them had all day to throw the ball.

It’s a function of miamis blocking scheme…they use heavier packages than most and keep extra blockers in a lot.  That’s why they fell out of love with gesicki because he can’t really block. Thompson was pressured a lot considering how much resources they commit to blocking up front.  
 

Also connor Williams and Terron Armstead are great offensive linemen

 

especially with the injuries they have going on, cincy doesn’t really have anyone above average.  You can gameplan around missing an offensive linemen or two when you have some dependable guys that can win their one on one matchups, but I’m not sure cincy has that.

 

Comparing the pass rush vs the dolphins to pass rush vs bengals next week is apples and oranges.  
 

 

[PaattMaann]

According to Caesars sports book, Cincy is getting 70% of the bets but Buffalo has 73% of the money. There have been three 6-figure bets, including one of $330,000 on the Bills at -5.

 

I like when the sharps are on the Bills. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

8 minutes ago, DCbillsfan said:

He was 18 for 45 220 yards.  Sacked 4 times for 31 yards.  2 interceptions and hit 11 times.  Each Bills D line guy had 2 QB pressures on him. He threw some nice balls during the game that were dropped but the Bills also had 10 passes defended.  Miami's offense had one decent drive all game that resulted in a touchdown.  Too many short fields allowed Miami to hang in the game plus the defensive TD.  Bills defense played pretty well.

That throw he made with Milano rushing free up the middle late in the game was ridiculous.  Hopefully no bengals fans misquote me here I’m not tryin to say Skylar is better than tua 😂…but there’s no way tua makes that throw.

 

defense played great…Milano and edmunds were flying all over the field plugging running lanes and disrupting passing lanes.  Secondary held hill and waddle in check.  Score was high because each team just got so many drives.  220 yards allowed and 2 offensive tds (one of which was a very short field) is very impressive 

 

Skylar deserves a lot of credit for buying himself extra time when the pocket broke down

Edited January 19, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Big Turk]

40 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Sorry I dont agree that he was pressured all game.  He had 45 attempts and a lot of them had all day to throw the ball.

 

When you have that many attempts there are going to be times when he has all day to throw.  He was also running for his life quite a bit too.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

10 minutes ago, PaattMaann said:

According to Caesars sports book, Cincy is getting 70% of the bets but Buffalo has 73% of the money. There have been three 6-figure bets, including one of $330,000 on the Bills at -5.

 

I like when the sharps are on the Bills. 

I'm not a betting man so I want to ask what would money like that bring in if they were to win the bet?

[PaattMaann]

1 minute ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

I'm not a betting man so I want to ask what would money like that bring in if they were to win the bet?

 

That particular bet was for -110, so that 330,000 bet would win you about 300,000 (relax bettors im rounding)

[BillsShredder83]

15 minutes ago, PaattMaann said:

According to Caesars sports book, Cincy is getting 70% of the bets but Buffalo has 73% of the money. There have been three 6-figure bets, including one of $330,000 on the Bills at -5.

 

I like when the sharps are on the Bills. 

Can i have a link where u find these? I only have one for DK. Would love to find a %s chart for Pinnacle (or any sharp book) if you happen to have one 🤞🤞

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

3 minutes ago, PaattMaann said:

 

That particular bet was for -110, so that 330,000 bet would win you about 300,000 (relax bettors im rounding)

Now I know why I don't bet, that made no sense to me at all. But thanks for the response.

[CorkScrewHill]

Bills sign Greg Mancz back to the practice squad, in case anyone cares

 

 

[PaattMaann]

2 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

Can i have a link where u find these? I only have one for DK. Would love to find a %s chart for Pinnacle (or any sharp book) if you happen to have one 🤞🤞

 

found it on twitter, the account who posted it is @TheMaxMeyer (blue check mark for what that is worth)

2 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

Now I know why I don't bet, that made no sense to me at all. But thanks for the response.

 

It is essentially an even money bet when your using the point spread, so this bettor is betting basically even money that the Bills will win by more than 5. That kind of money is often from sharps/groups. They don't make a habit out of losing money. The splits between # of tickets betting (in this case, most people are betting the Bengals - these are your average joes) and the amount of money being bet (in this case, the vast majority of money is coming in on the Bills) indicates that the sharps/betting groups in vegas are betting on the Bills.

 

Its never a sure indication of which way a game is going to go obviously, but as I said, the sharps/betting groups don't make it a habit of losing money.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

7 minutes ago, PaattMaann said:

 

found it on twitter, the account who posted it is @TheMaxMeyer (blue check mark for what that is worth)

 

It is essentially an even money bet when your using the point spread, so this bettor is betting basically even money that the Bills will win by more than 5. That kind of money is often from sharps/groups. They don't make a habit out of losing money. The splits between # of tickets betting (in this case, most people are betting the Bengals - these are your average joes) and the amount of money being bet (in this case, the vast majority of money is coming in on the Bills) indicates that the sharps/betting groups in vegas are betting on the Bills.

 

Its never a sure indication of which way a game is going to go obviously, but as I said, the sharps/betting groups don't make it a habit of losing money.

I appreciate that man. That makes much more sense out of it. I was wondering why you would bet 330,000 just to lose 30,000.

[NewEra]

14 hours ago, Caesar said:

You think you are the genius of football and you truly are not.  This Bengals team has actually been to a Super Bowl.  This game is not our Super Bowl, your cockiness and pathetic language about the Bengals is what many over on our site referenced. 

You’ve been exposed for what you are so this is the treatment you get. This isn’t the treatment all the other opposing fan bases get when they visit.  Just the trolls and baiters.  Like you.

[jletha]

 

[Aesop]

Go Bills!

[Caesar]

1 hour ago, boyst said:

i don't think the bills will try to tee up pressure. there is too much room for error there. burrow is hot or cold and thats not just from game to game. the entire bengals offense can lull themselves into a regressive state. i do not believe this is anything special - just their mindset. it's sentiment echoed through the team. 

 

because of this i could see them being up 7-14 points on buffalo through the first half to come out cold and comfortable in the 2nd.

 

where i am going with this Re: the OL.... i do not know the Bengals OL right now. NO ONE DOES. but what i do know is the Bills defense. I do know that Frazier has taken more liberty with his gameplan then other seasons. i know that he has dialed in new wrinkles and looked to expose flaws of QB's.

 

So, while i cannot look at the Bengals OL because it is a complete wildcard - so much that i am not putting it as a factor for the outcome of the game - i am looking at Burrow. burrow is going to be gameplanned like early Tua. A stoic big pocket QB who makes mistakes when properly attacked but can just as soon sting you.  the pressure to get on him is going to be minimalized which is a buffalo forte.

 

the Bills didn't attack the fins ol - they attacked the qb who was not Tua or Burrow. he was a rookie who had a respectable showing and impressed me. the bills should go into this game with the plan to control and regulate burrow and his 2.2 seconds per dropback. they should play the gameplan they did against another QB successfully (brady) who had the same abilities...collapse the pocket with hands up to disrupt Burow.

 

do this and jam his wr's. blitz and spy on any backfield setup because perine is going to be there blocking. mixon won't be a good blocker short of just chops.

 

the bills can win the battle on the trenches. offense gets you to the playoffs. time clock management and running gets you to the championship. defense wins you championships.

 

so while i walked around your question - i can directly answer it that the bills were hurting on defense with jordan phillips out and also appeared very lackluster. neither team was aggressive on the line. the bills line against miami was set to stop the run and let the rest of the defense take care of the pass. it is apples and oranges.

 

josh allen has the potential for 500 yards offense this weekend.

 

 

 

 

edit...i wrote this with several interruptions so it is likely fragmented

I can tell you we know the Bengals oline this week without a doubt.  

LT Carmen, considered a 2nd round bust from last year's draft.  Couldnt win a spot on a terrible line last year and has practiced the last 2 seasons at guard.  Good run blocker, has good length but not good pass block mechanics.
LG Volson, 4th round rookie - has good reps and bad ones, improved throughout the season.
C Karras, 2nd best lineman next to Cappa, been solid but not overwhelming.
RG, Scharping, another former 2nd rounder we picked up off waivers from the Texans this season. Very big guy, not a good run blocker, ok pass blocker.
RT Adeniji, started at guard last season, was terrible. He is better at tackle but LT is his spot.  Big guy that has been better this season in back up roles, still not confident. 

The only potential change would be Carmen being beaten out by another sub or practice squad tackle that started for us last year.


I liked your point "attacked the QB not the line", very interesting. I have no doubts the Bills defense last week will in no way resemble what we will see.

Mixon is beyond a terrible pass blocker, Perine is a good pass blocker.  You guys do not need a spy.

Jamming Tee or Boyd might work, Chase is a beast at the LOS, not sure I would jam him.

The Bills can definitely win at the line on defense but I think you are severely under rating our defense.

We are very solid with Hill and Reader in the middle and Hendrickson and Hubbard on the ends.  Solid vs the run and we get good pressure, but cant get the sack to save our lives. Very frustrating.  We have had excellent LB play as have the Bills.
 

Josh could go for 500 and 4 TDs vs anyone but we have one of the best passing defenses as to completion percentage, even with 2 questionable cornerbacks.  We do have good safeties that help a lot.
 

[Frez]

Bills 36 Bengals 20

 

Buffalo plays a flawless game this week. 

[NewEra]

35 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

That throw he made with Milano rushing free up the middle late in the game was ridiculous.  Hopefully no bengals fans misquote me here I’m not tryin to say Skylar is better than tua 😂…but there’s no way tua makes that throw.

 

defense played great…Milano and edmunds were flying all over the field plugging running lanes and disrupting passing lanes.  Secondary held hill and waddle in check.  Score was high because each team just got so many drives.  220 yards allowed and 2 offensive tds (one of which was a very short field) is very impressive 

 

Skylar deserves a lot of credit for buying himself extra time when the pocket broke down

“Are you saying Skylar Thompson is better than Joe Burrow???  I knew that’s what you were saying!!!  What??  Did you just say that every Bills fan on earth agrees that’s Skylar Thompson is the best QB in the league?  I never would have thought, but it’s apparently true.”

[Caesar]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

Yes 😀

 

When the Bills pass rush works, it works because we're getting consistent pressure up the middle as well as from the ends.

 

The Bills D, if you haven't figure it out, is kind of weird.  It manages to be a top D as far as points and yards, year after year.  3 out of the last years now.

At the same time, we seldom send players to the Pro Bowl or have them recognized as All-Pro. 

 

It's sort of a "whole is greater than the sum of its parts" creation.  It's kind of like a boa constrictor, it gets in your way but you look at it and think it's just a snake and it kind of has a small mouth - what can it do to you?  Then you get to the end of the game, and find that it's wrapped around your ribs 3 times and the jaws are coming down over your head.

 

A distressing number of the points our D has given up were the result of offensive turnovers that put the D in a horrid position.

I ask because Burrow does much better with pressure from the outside, as he likes to step up into the pocket and has good feel to avoid outside pressure.  Anything up the gut is usually a sack.  Joe rarely throws the ball away and hardly ever takes risks in losing the ball, he is 2 hands on the ball at all times, and is fine with being sacked.  He will take to the very last second to get the ball out with outside rushers coming.

[zow2]

Jeez, between ESPN and the Cowherd show today, betting on the Bengals sounds like the play this weekend.  Even Greg Cosell, while lauding Josh Allen, said the Bills offense just is not very talented,,,nor is the defense right now.  It's all Josh and whether he is on that day.

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, zow2 said:

Jeez, between ESPN and the Cowherd show today, betting on the Bengals sounds like the play this weekend.  Even Greg Cosell, while lauding Josh Allen, said the Bills offense just is not very talented,,,nor is the defense right now.  It's all Josh and whether he is on that day.

All the smart money is on Buffalo.  Just saying 

[Billz4ever]

18 minutes ago, zow2 said:

Jeez, between ESPN and the Cowherd show today, betting on the Bengals sounds like the play this weekend.  Even Greg Cosell, while lauding Josh Allen, said the Bills offense just is not very talented,,,nor is the defense right now.  It's all Josh and whether he is on that day.

I don't know how people can possibly say the Bills offense is not talented when they are still in the top 5 in points for this season despite playing a game less than the teams in front of them.

 

And it's not like our points have come at the expense of mostly bad defenses.  We've played some very good defenses this season. Some more than once.

 

They put up 34 last week and could've been closer to like 50 if a couple catches had been squeezed a bit better.

Edited January 19, 2023 by Billz4ever

[colin]

7 minutes ago, zow2 said:

Jeez, between ESPN and the Cowherd show today, betting on the Bengals sounds like the play this weekend.  Even Greg Cosell, while lauding Josh Allen, said the Bills offense just is not very talented,,,nor is the defense right now.  It's all Josh and whether he is on that day.

 

 

So, i get the view that the bills O is not that talented.  it's the number 2 o in the nfl, and quietly (and i cant believe im saying this) one of the most balanced given how well the bills run the ball (not that they call the most balanced plays, but that they are good at both).  Given that, and how great JA17 is, one would expect to see a 1992 cowboys roster out there, but you have diggs allen and everyone else.  

 

the reality on O is that our OL is actually above average, and solid at run blocking and pass blocking when we mix it up, we struggle on short yardage goal line stuff and protecting against stunts and overloads, our RBs w hines and cook and motor are actually good, TE is OK (knox isn't enough), and for the passing game the D has to constantly scheme diggs away, and even then we have good production.

 

On D, no von and no hyde stinks, but it's an above average DL that does well vs the run, our two LBs are on freaking tilt this season, and right now w tre and elam/banford playing well, we are back to a pretty sick secondary.  I don't think anyone can say our D is not talented, it just lacks top line playmakers.

 

i feel confident going into a game vs cinci w a mash unit offensive line.

[GETTOTHE50]

media back on hating our boy JA17 and polishing off joey. Hopefully JA17 rips the bengals heart out and crushes it in front of burrow.

[Beck Water]

No Poyer 😬