Interesting Stat...Allen led NFL in average air yards past the first down marker on 3rd downs

[Big Turk]

Led 2nd place Dak Prescott by a full yard...not sure ıf this was intentıonal design or just Allen himself doing it. Allen averaged throwing 5.4 in the air past the first down marker on 3rd down passes this year, far and away the most in the NFL. 

 

This seems to be a Dorsey designed thing as Allen was 13th last year at 2.3 yards and 14th in 2020 at 2.0 yards, whereas Russell Wilson led with 5.5 yards. Allen was ranked 3rd and 4th in 2018 and 2019 with 3.6 and 3.4 respectively, so it appears Daboll reigned him in a little bit in that regard, but Dorsey seems to even be pushing the boundaries with this further, forcing teams to cover well past the first down markers.

Thoughts? 

Edited January 10, 2023 by Big Turk

[balln]

Says more that they failed on first and second down / and Allen is more hero ball

 

meaningless stat

[Wraith]

Just now, balln said:

Says more that they failed on first and second down / and Allen is more hero ball

 

meaningless stat

I don't think you understood the stat or the post.

[balln]

2 minutes ago, Wraith said:

I don't think you understood the stat or the post.

Air yards beyond the marker on 3rd down? Meaningless

 

so what Allen throws it beyond the marker not under the marker or at the marker - that’s what you would want at 3rd down 

 

Too much analysis

[Royale with Cheese]

9 minutes ago, balln said:

Says more that they failed on first and second down / and Allen is more hero ball

 

meaningless stat

 

No it doesn't.

[buffaloboyinATL]

9 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Led 2nd place Dak Prescott by a full yard...not sure ıf this was intentıonal design or just Allen himself doing it. Allen averaged throwing 5.4 in the air past the first down marker on 3rd down passes this year, far and away the most in the NFL. 

 

This seems to be a Dorsey designed thing as Allen was 13th last year at 2.3 yards and 14th in 2020 at 2.0 yards, whereas Russell Wilson led with 5.5 yards. Allen was ranked 3rd and 4th in 2018 and 2019 with 3.6 and 3.4 respectively, so it appears Daboll reigned him in a little bit in that regard, but Dorsey seems to even be pushing the boundaries with this further, forcing teams to cover well past the first down markers.

Thoughts? 

This kind of confirms what I have felt about Allen, without knowing the stats. He often does more than just trying to get just enough for the 1st, he plays with confidence and continues to try and push it down the field.  

[Big Turk]

9 minutes ago, balln said:

Says more that they failed on first and second down / and Allen is more hero ball

 

meaningless stat

 

No that does not.  You are misinterpreting it.  

 

Regardless of how many yards to go they had on 3rd down, Allen threw the ball an average of 5.4 yards farther than he needed to get the firs down.  If it was 3rd and 1, Allen threw the ball 6.4 yards down field. 3rd and 3, 8.4 yards down field(5.4 yards farther than he needed to pick up the first down).  

 

Also, the Bills did not fail on first and second downs, for the most part.  So you pretty much made a completely baseless post.

7 minutes ago, balln said:

Air yards beyond the marker on 3rd down? Meaningless

 

so what Allen throws it beyond the marker not under the marker or at the marker - that’s what you would want at 3rd down 

 

Too much analysis

 

The point is contrasting what he did under Daboll the last 2 years versus what he did under Dorsey.  Daboll seemed to reign him in in some situations like 3rd downs and the redzone while Dorsey has seemingly pushed him further towards pedal to the metal in those situations.  

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

8 minutes ago, balln said:

Air yards beyond the marker on 3rd down? Meaningless

 

so what Allen throws it beyond the marker not under the marker or at the marker - that’s what you would want at 3rd down 

 

Too much analysis

 

A ton of teams throw short of the sticks hoping the receivers make the play after the catch. 

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

 

The point is contrasting what he did under Daboll the last 2 years versus what he did under Dorsey.  Daboll seemed to reign him in in some situations like 3rd downs and the redzone while Dorsey has seemingly pushed him further towards pedal to the metal in those situations.  

 

 

I think the removal of a reliable slot receiver comfort blanket has had an impact too. Beas in his prime was excellent at getting just past the sticks then sitting down in a zone. That brought the averages down some. Even the plays Isaiah has made this year I don't remember many of that variety.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

3 minutes ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

This kind of confirms what I have felt about Allen, without knowing the stats. He often does more than just trying to get just enough for the 1st, he plays with confidence and continues to try and push it down the field.  

 

This has killed us a few times though. The sequence at the end of the Vikings game and the sequence where he threw the pick at the end of the first half in our game last Sunday against the Patriots. The two sequences combined were 5 or 6 consecutive throws into the end zone from around 20 yards out. Resulted in zero completions and two interceptions. 

[JESSEFEFFER]

I think it says that for the most part, the Bills lacked a Beasley/Crowder option in their offense for the bulk of the season.  Those routes would tend to be at or near the sticks.  I do not know how it ended up or where to go to get it, but the Bills offense was likely at or near the top of the league in 3rd down conversion in most all situations.  Josh is not wired to throw short of the sticks on third down.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

I think the removal of a reliable slot receiver comfort blanket has had an impact too. Beas in his prime was excellent at getting just past the sticks then sitting down in a zone. That brought the averages down some. Even the plays Isaiah has made this year I don't remember many of that variety.

 

It will be interesting what role Beasley has in the playoffs. Frustrating that he wasn't able to get called up again for one last game after only playing one serious in the Bengals game before it was called. Thought the NFL should have allowed a deviance from the protocols on that one. Felt like Beasley was going to get a lot of snaps and targets in the Bengals game to basically see what he and the offense could do BEFORE the playoffs. Now if we want to give him a high workload and "try it out" it will be in do or die game setting. 

[Airseven]

This stat is really telling me something.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

I love what Allen said in the post game, something to the effect of checkdowns are nice, but sometimes you just have to make plays. 

 

Our media has been on him all year about turnovers, but Allen knows you're not winning big games checking it down constantly. 

 

We're all here because of Allen's ability. I wish our media would stop with the "how do you balance being aggressive and take what the defense gives you" questions. 

 

 

Edited January 10, 2023 by Straight Hucklebuck

[Big Turk]

4 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

I think it says that for the most part, the Bills lacked a Beasley/Crowder option in their offense for the bulk of the season.  Those routes would tend to be at or near the sticks.  I do not know how it ended up or where to go to get it, but the Bills offense was likely at or near the top of the league in 3rd down conversion in most all situations.  Josh is not wired to throw short of the sticks on third down.

 

Yes, the Bills were #1 at 50.22% on 3rd downs.  An absurd rate meaning they converted more than half of their 3rd downs to 1st downs regardless of distance.  That is a very rare occurrence in the NFL...Saints in 2011 were the highest back to 2003 at over 55%!  Chiefs last year and Manning led Colts in 2006 were over 53% but anything over 50 is exceedingly rare.  Since 2003 only about 8 or 9 teams have accomplished that.

 

They also were far and away #1 in the NFL at converting 3rd and 10+ at something even more absurd at like 40% when the average team is like 10%.

 

Edited January 10, 2023 by Big Turk

[JESSEFEFFER]

14 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

It will be interesting what role Beasley has in the playoffs. Frustrating that he wasn't able to get called up again for one last game after only playing one serious in the Bengals game before it was called. Thought the NFL should have allowed a deviance from the protocols on that one. Felt like Beasley was going to get a lot of snaps and targets in the Bengals game to basically see what he and the offense could do BEFORE the playoffs. Now if we want to give him a high workload and "try it out" it will be in do or die game setting. 

Or, if you are correct, the Bengals did not get a look at how Ken Dorsey preferred to use him and if they have the personnel matchups to cover him.  So the Bills can spring it on them without them being totally prepared.

Edited January 10, 2023 by JESSEFEFFER

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

It will be interesting what role Beasley has in the playoffs. Frustrating that he wasn't able to get called up again for one last game after only playing one serious in the Bengals game before it was called. Thought the NFL should have allowed a deviance from the protocols on that one. Felt like Beasley was going to get a lot of snaps and targets in the Bengals game to basically see what he and the offense could do BEFORE the playoffs. Now if we want to give him a high workload and "try it out" it will be in do or die game setting. 

 

I don't think Beas still has any juice tbh. Look at his stats going back to the middle of last year with the Bills.... I said it when he re-signed but people who are still refusing the accept the decline in his ability need to come to terms with it. Can he still make the odd catch and fall down? Sure. But the days when if teams wanted to stay in the 2 deep shell we could just nickel and dime them to death underneath with Beas are not coming back sadly. We have to hope that Shakir rounds into that sort of guy moving forward. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Just now, JESSEFEFFER said:

Or, if are correct, the Bengals did not get a look at how Ken Dorsey preferred to use him and if they have the personnel matchups to cover him.  So the Bills can spring it on them without them being totally prepared.

 

That could be a benefit. As long as Beasley is ready to go in this offense. Maybe Beasley can be the Dolphin killer again like he was in 2021 in the 3-3 half time game. 

[JESSEFEFFER]

13 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Yes, the Bills were #1 at 50.22% on 3rd downs.  An absurd rate meaning they converted more than half of their 3rd downs to 1st downs regardless of distance.  They also were far and away #1 in the NFL at converting 3rd and 10+ at something even more absurd at like40% when the average team is like 10%.

 

 

This morning on WGR, Jeremy White was speaking of the hidden turnover margin that favors the Bills.  Yes, the Bills do seem to have some sloppy turnovers and are near even in turnover margin but if you consider punts as "turnovers lite," the Bills have a hidden, major turnover advantage and it's likely sourced in the 3rd and 10+ stat you cited.  If it's anything like the 40/10 numbers you gave, that's why there are a whole lot of punts that were never made.

Edited January 10, 2023 by JESSEFEFFER

[Big Turk]

34 minutes ago, balln said:

Says more that they failed on first and second down / and Allen is more hero ball

 

meaningless stat

 

Considering the Bills tied with the fewest 3rd down attempts in the NFL with KC at 193 this season, I think they did pretty freaking good on 1st and 2nd downs.

 

[JESSEFEFFER]

24 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Considering the Bills tied with the fewest 3rd down attempts in the NFL with KC at 193 this season, I think they did pretty freaking good on 1st and 2nd downs.

 

I love when a weak take gets carpet bombed with facts.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Stat fits the narrative that Josh is trying to make plays downfield most of the time. Even if he needs to get 2 yards he may be trying to get more. Would I like to see him check it down a bit more often? Yes. Not every check down results in a first down but some do. Also any positive yards helps field position and if in FG range makes the kick a bit easier. Also it might set up the possibility of a short 4th down attempt.

We all love Allen's ability to throw the intermediate length pass. I beleive

Allen, Marino, and Rodgers are best in NFL history at the 10-25 yard pass. Its a function of his arm strength and willingness and ability to extend plays. But as we have all seen there are some occasions where a check down is the safer and better play. 

[Fleezoid]

Stats have gone off the charts!

 

[Heavy Kevi]

I've been saying this all year (though without stats to back it up).

 

Watch out for this offense on 3rd and long. They know you are defending the sticks, so Josh likes to go for the long ball and it has largely worked pretty well.

 

Look at the (seems like forever ago) Gabe Davis for 98 yds. It was like 3rd and 14 or something at the 2 and Josh just rifles that ***** out there to Davis and BOOM, 6 points 

[TheFunPolice]

Interesting stat, for sure.

 

Also interesting that the top of that list doesn't exactly read like a who's who of top NFL QBS, although a bunch are also up high on it. 

[teef]

1 hour ago, balln said:

Says more that they failed on first and second down / and Allen is more hero ball

 

meaningless stat

well...at least you tried!

[Royale with Cheese]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

Considering the Bills tied with the fewest 3rd down attempts in the NFL with KC at 193 this season, I think they did pretty freaking good on 1st and 2nd downs.

 

 

"We suck on 1st and 2nd down"

 

Edited January 10, 2023 by Royale with Cheese

[34-78-83]

7 minutes ago, Heavy Kevi said:

I've been saying this all year (though without stats to back it up).

 

Watch out for this offense on 3rd and long. They know you are defending the sticks, so Josh likes to go for the long ball and it has largely worked pretty well.

 

Look at the (seems like forever ago) Gabe Davis for 98 yds. It was like 3rd and 14 or something at the 2 and Josh just rifles that ***** out there to Davis and BOOM, 6 points 

You actually came the closest to being right on what this stat means, and it IS indeed significant. Defenses play the sticks hard on 3rd down, knowing that a ton of offenses have routes built in to get right to the sticks, or underneath them with check downs. The Bills have routes designed into the offense that often go 5-10 yards past the sticks, and some even further, and they stress to Josh to hit these if they are open. It gives the offense an advantage vs. the typical coverage in place, and Josh has the cannon to make it happen.

[Cash]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think the removal of a reliable slot receiver comfort blanket has had an impact too. Beas in his prime was excellent at getting just past the sticks then sitting down in a zone. That brought the averages down some. Even the plays Isaiah has made this year I don't remember many of that variety.

Agreed.  I would love for Knox to fill that gap to some extent.  The key difference, of course, is that Knox usually catches the ball behind the sticks instead of just past them.  But he's so good at turning upfield immediately and either breaking tackles or at least falling forward 2-3 yards on a consistent basis.  Those are chain movers, too.

[Big Turk]

23 minutes ago, Cash said:

Agreed.  I would love for Knox to fill that gap to some extent.  The key difference, of course, is that Knox usually catches the ball behind the sticks instead of just past them.  But he's so good at turning upfield immediately and either breaking tackles or at least falling forward 2-3 yards on a consistent basis.  Those are chain movers, too.

 

Knox is kept in as a blocker on 3rd down more than I can ever remember to max protect and give Josh more time.

[NickelCity]

An emblematic play happened against the Pats*. I don't think I agree with Josh's decision but i only watched it live. 

 

There was a 3rd down where he hit Diggs on a beautiful sideline pass maybe 15 yards down the field (high degree of difficulty), but a simple check down to an open Cook in the flat looked like the easy/high percentage play to get the 1st. 

 

The stat makes sense given what we've watched this year, for sure. 

[Cash]

On 1/10/2023 at 11:48 AM, Big Turk said:

 

Knox is kept in as a blocker on 3rd down more than I can ever remember to max protect and give Josh more time.

 

True!  And we've seen him have a fair amount of success releasing after the initial block and becoming a checkdown option.  I say let's get more of that, especially on early downs.

[Billz4ever]

On 1/10/2023 at 7:55 AM, Big Turk said:

Led 2nd place Dak Prescott by a full yard...not sure ıf this was intentıonal design or just Allen himself doing it. Allen averaged throwing 5.4 in the air past the first down marker on 3rd down passes this year, far and away the most in the NFL. 

 

This seems to be a Dorsey designed thing as Allen was 13th last year at 2.3 yards and 14th in 2020 at 2.0 yards, whereas Russell Wilson led with 5.5 yards. Allen was ranked 3rd and 4th in 2018 and 2019 with 3.6 and 3.4 respectively, so it appears Daboll reigned him in a little bit in that regard, but Dorsey seems to even be pushing the boundaries with this further, forcing teams to cover well past the first down markers.

Thoughts? 

Makes sense to me.  On all the 3rd down passes for a first, I remember very few that were right at the sticks.  Seems they were always at least a few yards past if not more.

 

Could be by design.  The defense knows were the line to gain is, so if they are potentially looking at receivers making cuts there to pick up the first, they might be getting caught a little off guard when they go past that.

[dakrider]

Something more interesting to me, I was looking on NBCSports stats and top 20 receivers yards-after-catch and no Bills on that list.  Philly, KC, SF and Miami all had 2 players each on it. 

[ExiledInIllinois]

On 1/10/2023 at 8:06 AM, buffaloboyinATL said:

This kind of confirms what I have felt about Allen, without knowing the stats. He often does more than just trying to get just enough for the 1st, he plays with confidence and continues to try and push it down the field.  

Dak is 2nd. 

 

Some times that push will burn... 

[Motorin']

On 1/10/2023 at 9:49 AM, Heavy Kevi said:

I've been saying this all year (though without stats to back it up).

 

Watch out for this offense on 3rd and long. They know you are defending the sticks, so Josh likes to go for the long ball and it has largely worked pretty well.

 

Look at the (seems like forever ago) Gabe Davis for 98 yds. It was like 3rd and 14 or something at the 2 and Josh just rifles that ***** out there to Davis and BOOM, 6 points 

 

Best 3rd down conversation percentage in the NFL this year also. https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/third-down-conversion-pct