Todd McShay’s latest 2 round mock draft!

[JaCrispy]

 

#25 CB Andrew Booth Jr., Clemson

 

#57 RB Kenneth Walker III, Michigan State

 

 

[thenorthremembers]

Id love Walker in the 2nd but dont think he'll make it to our spot.  

[eball]

Is he ever right?

 

Unless you’re talking about predicting the top 5 or so draft picks, the “mock draft” phenomenon continues to astound me — and all of these guys’ records are putrid.

 

It makes complete sense that teams run simulations internally to give themselves an idea of how a draft may shake out, but the mock drafts by media members and “insiders” crack me up.

 

Carry on.

 

[JaCrispy]

6 minutes ago, eball said:

Is he ever right?

 

Unless you’re talking about predicting the top 5 or so draft picks, the “mock draft” phenomenon continues to astound me — and all of these guys’ records are putrid.

 

It makes complete sense that teams run simulations internally to give themselves an idea of how a draft may shake out, but the mock drafts by media members and “insiders” crack me up.

 

Carry on.

 

It’s just entertainment...😉

[eball]

1 minute ago, JaCrispy said:

It’s just entertainment...😉

 

Hey man, I know people love this stuff…it just amuses me.  These guys are right approximately 4.5% of the time.

[GunnerBill]

19 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Hey man, I know people love this stuff…it just amuses me.  These guys are right approximately 4.5% of the time.

 

I mean Josh Norris (formerly of Rotoworld, now of some fantasy football site) had 16 exact matches in his final mock last year. That is a hell of a result. 

[Donuts and Doritos]

38 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Hey man, I know people love this stuff…it just amuses me.  These guys are right approximately 4.5% of the time.

 

86.2% of people who quote statistics are making them up. 😉

[HOUSE]

Wasn't he the guy who trashed the Josh Allen pick ?  I think I will pass on his predictions

[atlbillsfan1975]

12 minutes ago, HOUSE said:

Wasn't he the guy who trashed the Josh Allen pick ?  I think I will pass on his predictions

I think maybe 1 out of 10 people in media liked the Allen pick initially. 
I am not a fan of McShay, just seems like ESPN tried to force him onto the scene to replace Kiper. Problem is, Kiper is better and more likable. 
That aside, I’d like this draft. 

Edited April 11, 2022 by atlbillsfan1975

[eball]

30 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I mean Josh Norris (formerly of Rotoworld, now of some fantasy football site) had 16 exact matches in his final mock last year. That is a hell of a result. 

 

Even a blind squirrel occasionally stumbles upon a nut or two.

 

That astounding result is still only 50%, and how many of those matches were after the top 10?

 

[Don Otreply]

1 hour ago, eball said:

Is he ever right?

 

Unless you’re talking about predicting the top 5 or so draft picks, the “mock draft” phenomenon continues to astound me — and all of these guys’ records are putrid.

 

It makes complete sense that teams run simulations internally to give themselves an idea of how a draft may shake out, but the mock drafts by media members and “insiders” crack me up.

 

Carry on.

 

It is an exercise in futility, but humans like to go down that path with some frequency…, 

[GunnerBill]

18 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Even a blind squirrel occasionally stumbles upon a nut or two.

 

That astounding result is still only 50%, and how many of those matches were after the top 10?

 

 

Well even if it was only 6 outside the top 10 the level of varience in a draft makes that a pretty astounding effort. He also correctly predicted 28 of the 32 guys who went in the 1st. If you think mocks only have value if they get all 32 right ever likely you don't see value in them. 

 

Are mock drafts a bit of a cottage industry? Sure. But they have value. If done well they can demonstrate scenarios that might play out and get fans to really think about team building and the multi faceted job a GM has to do when drafting. Even if not done well they can be an entertaining appetiser for the draft itself. 

[eball]

14 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Well even if it was only 6 outside the top 10 the level of varience in a draft makes that a pretty astounding effort. He also correctly predicted 28 of the 32 guys who went in the 1st. If you think mocks only have value if they get all 32 right ever likely you don't see value in them. 

 

Are mock drafts a bit of a cottage industry? Sure. But they have value. If done well they can demonstrate scenarios that might play out and get fans to really think about team building and the multi faceted job a GM has to do when drafting. Even if not done well they can be an entertaining appetiser for the draft itself. 

 

You’re praising a guy for a success rate that is the equivalent of flipping a coin, and he was the best.  There is literally no value in the mock draft “industry” aside from the NFL keeping content churning for fans who can’t get enough.  Again, I get it — it’s just not for me.

 

I’ll refrain from posting in any mock draft thread further.  I simply saw the McShay thread title and reacted.

 

Looking forward to the actual draft in 17 days and living in reality.

 

[billsbackto81]

57 minutes ago, HOUSE said:

Wasn't he the guy who trashed the Josh Allen pick ?  I think I will pass on his predictions

Lots of people did. 

[BuffaninSarasota]

60% of the time it works every time .....

[BarleyNY]

2 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

 

#25 CB Andrew Booth Jr., Clemson

 

#57 RB Kenneth Walker III, Michigan State

 

 

That is the best case scenario IMO

[CapeBreton]

2 hours ago, eball said:

Is he ever right?

 

Unless you’re talking about predicting the top 5 or so draft picks, the “mock draft” phenomenon continues to astound me — and all of these guys’ records are putrid.

 

It makes complete sense that teams run simulations internally to give themselves an idea of how a draft may shake out, but the mock drafts by media members and “insiders” crack me up.

 

Carry on.

 

is anyone ever right on these mock drafts? I’ve been going back and looking at old mocks and Ed Oliver was often connected to the Bills but that’s about it.

 

Joe Buscaglia at The Athletic did have the Bills picking Greg Rousseau last year so I’m gonna keep an eye on his picks this year. 

[Slippery Rubber Mats]

Guys it's not about being right. Like how would one ever be "right" anyhow? They are doing the draft they way they would do it, not the other humans that will do it. It's entertainment.

 

Mock drafts rustle jimmies on message boards and I have no idea why LOL

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 11, 2022 by Tom Donahoe, GM

[TC in St. Louis]

I like both picks.  I listen to the pod where he and Kiper get into it every week.  They are both very knowledgeable but we all know that mock drafts are just for fun and they're part of it.  

 

I do think it's time for the Bills to get a stud RB so that Josh doesn't have to take all the 3rd and 4th down runs.  Why risk injury?

[OldTimer1960]

2 hours ago, eball said:

 

You’re praising a guy for a success rate that is the equivalent of flipping a coin, and he was the best.  There is literally no value in the mock draft “industry” aside from the NFL keeping content churning for fans who can’t get enough.  Again, I get it — it’s just not for me.

 

I’ll refrain from posting in any mock draft thread further.  I simply saw the McShay thread title and reacted.

 

Looking forward to the actual draft in 17 days and living in reality.

 

Not at all like flipping a coin.  Flipping a coin 32 time and trying to predict the order of heads and tails would be closer, but easier. 

[Vickveto]

If we took Booth over Christian Watson I will be pissed but I would understand would love walker in the second though. Christian Watson and Kenneth Walker would be an ideal scenario.

[BADOLBILZ]

4 hours ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

I think maybe 1 out of 10 people in media liked the Allen pick initially. 
I am not a fan of McShay, just seems like ESPN tried to force him onto the scene to replace Kiper. Problem is, Kiper is better and more likable. 
That aside, I’d like this draft. 

 

 

McShay definitely seems like the angriest of all media draftniks.........like the only angry one really........he's always seemed pissed or put out about something when I've seen him on TV.

 

I remember one year he mocked a QB from Kentucky in the top 10 late in the process and the guy went undrafted or something really bizarre like that and I've never really put any stock into his takes since.  Edit......

 

Tried to look it up but I can't remember the QB's name and all the negative search words for McShay always yield stuff that was posted yesterday so wasn't an easy find. 

 

Edit......QB's name was Andre Woodson.......he talked him up as a potential #1 overall pick all during the 2007 season and he ended up going in the 6th round and was quickly out of the league.    He has no league connections so he is really flying blind with his evaluations wrt where players will be selected.

Edited April 11, 2022 by BADOLBILZ

[BADOLBILZ]

28 minutes ago, Vickveto said:

If we took Booth over Christian Watson I will be pissed but I would understand would love walker in the second though. Christian Watson and Kenneth Walker would be an ideal scenario.

 

 

If you use a second round pick on a player I think it should be a GIVEN that you will want to re-sign the guy if he plays well.

 

I wonder what % of people that want to draft a RB are thinking that player will be worthy of a big second contract?

 

I suspect it's low.......nobody wants to pay RB's anymore.

 

A second round pick is still one of your best shots to find an organizational difference maker.........the vast majority of pro bowlers come from rounds 1 and 2.

 

So a second rounder shouldn't be used on players that you plan from the get-go to use up and throw away........which basically describes all but the most unique RB's. 

[Vickveto]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

If you use a second round pick on a player I think it should be a GIVEN that you will want to re-sign the guy if he plays well.

 

I wonder what % of people that want to draft a RB are thinking that player will be worthy of a big second contract?

 

I suspect it's low.......nobody wants to pay RB's anymore.

 

A second round pick is still one of your best shots to find an organizational difference maker.........the vast majority of pro bowlers come from rounds 1 and 2.

 

So a second rounder shouldn't be used on players that you plan from the get-go to use up and throw away........which basically describes all but the most unique RB's. 

I agree I don’t think you should take a running back in the first or second and unless you believe he is a elite day one starting running back, even being a very good running back doesn’t cut it.
 

My gut feeling is that we draft a linebacker in one of the first two rounds trade Edmonds and use that extra money to sign Gilmore. 

[frogger]

I’d be okay with this.

[TBBills]

8 hours ago, eball said:

 

Hey man, I know people love this stuff…it just amuses me.  These guys are right approximately 4.5% of the time.

On NFL network all the draft guys have a list of who got the most right, I think Charles Davis won with 14 correct picks in the first round last year.

Edited April 11, 2022 by TBBills

[Shake_My_Head]

Nice picks, but it's almost impossible to say what will be available at those slots, IMO.     Mocks are fun, but all you can really look for is whether they have a handle on team needs.    In this case, they do.

 

 

7 hours ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Problem is, Kiper is was better

 

Mel's been running on fumes for the past ten years.    It takes a LOT of work to do this, even for the TV guys.    As a long-time subscriber to Kiper's draft guides, he's living on past glories now, IMO.

.

Edited April 11, 2022 by Shake_My_Head

[BillsfaninSB]

I don’t think Booth will be there at #25.  Would definitely support that selection though. 

[Magnum Force]

Would be a great and perfect draft.  

[BillsFanForever19]

My take on Running Back is you don't take one in the First Round this year, period, end of statement.

 

If you land a CB like Gardner, Stingley, Booth, or McDuffie in Round 1 and Breece Hall or Kenneth Walker III are available AND there isn't a WR there that has fallen further than you'd expect (like Skyy Moore or Christian Watson), you can take either Walker or Hall in Round 2. But only one of those those two. Otherwise, I'm generally eyeing James Cook in Round 3. 

 

I'd be pleased in this scenario. 

Edited April 11, 2022 by BillsFanForever19

[OldTimer1960]

5 hours ago, Vickveto said:

If we took Booth over Christian Watson I will be pissed but I would understand would love walker in the second though. Christian Watson and Kenneth Walker would be an ideal scenario.

You would be mad if they took a player at a premium position of need, who played at a much higher level of competition and was a much more sought after recruit over a high-upside athlete from a much lower level of competition who showed well at the Senior Bowl where the best underclass players are not represented and showed great athleticism at the combine?
 

No debate that receiver is a sneaky need.  No debate that long-term competitiveness is the goal.  But, if you are “all-in” for SB this year (unwise in my opinion), then Watson would not make sense over Booth.

 

I know that I sound like an alarmist, but in the AFC where an 11-6 team could miss a wild-card spot, I personally think that having to start Jackson and a rookie with high upside like Tariq Woolen could lose you a few critical games early and leave you on the outside of the playoffs.  Don’t kid yourself, Miami is dangerous if Tua is even decent, the Pats will always be competitive with Belichick and the Jets have a highly talented young QB and a ton of high value draft picks to improve with.

 

If White misses the first month of the season, somebody better be able to play opposite the anointed, but athletically limited and unproven Dane Jackson.  Not saying that Jackson CAN’T be a decent starter, but to think he is proven - especially to think that he is more proven than Gabe Davis at WR is questionable in my mind.  I don’t want to see Siran Neal or Cam Lewis starting for the first month and, yes they might sign a vet stop-gap they have not done so yet.  

[Vickveto]

10 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

You would be mad if they took a player at a premium position of need, who played at a much higher level of competition and was a much more sought after recruit over a high-upside athlete from a much lower level of competition who showed well at the Senior Bowl where the best underclass players are not represented and showed great athleticism at the combine?
 

No debate that receiver is a sneaky need.  No debate that long-term competitiveness is the goal.  But, if you are “all-in” for SB this year (unwise in my opinion), then Watson would not make sense over Booth.

 

I know that I sound like an alarmist, but in the AFC where an 11-6 team could miss a wild-card spot, I personally think that having to start Jackson and a rookie with high upside like Tariq Woolen could lose you a few critical games early and leave you on the outside of the playoffs.  Don’t kid yourself, Miami is dangerous if Tua is even decent, the Pats will always be competitive with Belichick and the Jets have a highly talented young QB and a ton of high value draft picks to improve with.

 

If White misses the first month of the season, somebody better be able to play opposite the anointed, but athletically limited and unproven Dane Jackson.  Not saying that Jackson CAN’T be a decent starter, but to think he is proven - especially to think that he is more proven than Gabe Davis at WR is questionable in my mind.  I don’t want to see Siran Neal or Cam Lewis starting for the first month and, yes they might sign a vet stop-gap they have not done so yet.  

I believe there are three veteran corners on the market that will be better than any corner at 25 this year. Not included the bradberry situation which he is another option.

[Ralonzo]

7 hours ago, TC in St. Louis said:

I like both picks.  I listen to the pod where he and Kiper get into it every week.  They are both very knowledgeable but we all know that mock drafts are just for fun and they're part of it.  

 

I do think it's time for the Bills to get a stud RB so that Josh doesn't have to take all the 3rd and 4th down runs.  Why risk injury?

Because of the drop off in the effectiveness of Josh handing the ball to a RB following a blocking back vs Josh following two blocking backs.

[wppete]

If this happens in the first 2 rounds we will be very happy. 

[Thurman#1]

11 hours ago, eball said:

 

Hey man, I know people love this stuff…it just amuses me.  These guys are right approximately 4.5% of the time.

 

 

Yeah, but it's pretty much impossible to be right a lot. What they're doing is unbelievably difficult, just looking at it mathematically.

 

The ones with inside knowledge can do a bit better, but they're not doing it claiming they're going to get them all right. As said above, it's just for entertainment. Fun to guess, fun to criticize guesses.

Edited April 11, 2022 by Thurman#1

[BillsFanForever19]

1 hour ago, Vickveto said:

I believe there are three veteran corners on the market that will be better than any corner at 25 this year. Not included the bradberry situation which he is another option.

 

I like Christian Watson a lot. But he's a guy who was looked at as a late 2nd to 3rd Round Pick who has improved his stock to a high 2nd Round pick. Maybe someone who could sneak into the last couple picks of Round 1. 25 is too high for him. 

 

As for the veteran Corner situation, we're not signing anyone long term if we make a move. Beane isn't going to pay what he's paying Tre and give big money to someone on the other side as well, with the amount of big contracts we have on the books already and the number of guys we need to extend in the future. 

 

Anyone we sign would be a 1 year stop gap. And I highly doubt it will be a James Bradberry (especially when it will cost a Draft Pick and would just be a 1 year rental) or a Stephon Gilmore. We have a little over 8 million right now. It will take about 3 to sign our Draft Picks. And Beane, like most teams, like to keep around 2-3 going into the season in case of emergency. 

 

Beane's actions this offseason have shown that be realizes that you can't just have 1 solid CB and a bunch of average guys and that we want an upgrade from Levi Wallace. This was proven by letting him walk even though they easily could have re-signed him. The only way you do this long term at a cost controlled level is to Draft one high.

 

If the plan were to solidify that position strictly with a vet, he'd have done that by now. The fact that he hasn't all but tips his hand. I do believe a bargain vet CB will be signed. At best, a Steven Nelson or a Bryce Callahan. But again, it would be a one year deal. And with Tre White most likely out for a few games at the start of the season, you still need more than just that.

 

BIt of a long winded reply, I know. But basically I'm saying - there is no way in hell you pass on Andrew Booth for Christian Watson. Even if you plan on signing Steven Nelson. You take Booth and if you really like a Christian Watson or Skyy Moore, you trade up from 57.

[Vickveto]

15 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

I like Christian Watson a lot. But he's a guy who was looked at as a late 2nd to 3rd Round Pick who has improved his stock to a high 2nd Round pick. Maybe someone who could sneak into the last couple picks of Round 1. 25 is too high for him. 

 

As for the veteran Corner situation, we're not signing anyone long term if we make a move. Beane isn't going to pay what he's paying Tre and give big money to someone on the other side as well, with the amount of big contracts we have on the books already and the number of guys we need to extend in the future. 

 

Anyone we sign would be a 1 year stop gap. And I highly doubt it will be a James Bradberry (especially when it will cost a Draft Pick and would just be a 1 year rental) or a Stephon Gilmore. We have a little over 8 million right now. It will take about 3 to sign our Draft Picks. And Beane, like most teams, like to keep around 2-3 going into the season in case of emergency. 

 

Beane's actions this offseason have shown that be realizes that you can't just have 1 solid CB and a bunch of average guys and that we want an upgrade from Levi Wallace. This was proven by letting him walk even though they easily could have re-signed him. The only way you do this long term at a cost controlled level is to Draft one high.

 

If the plan were to solidify that position strictly with a vet, he'd have done that by now. The fact that he hasn't all but tips his hand. I do believe a bargain vet CB will be signed. At best, a Steven Nelson or a Bryce Callahan. But again, it would be a one year deal. And with Tre White most likely out for a few games at the start of the season, you still need more than just that.

 

BIt of a long winded reply, I know. But basically I'm saying - there is no way in hell you pass on Andrew Booth for Christian Watson. Even if you plan on signing Steven Nelson. You take Booth and if you really like a Christian Watson or Skyy Moore, you trade up from 57.

Everbody wants booth so bad. But what is so shocking to me is that nobody mentions he is undergoing surgery right now. ON A CORE MUSCLE He messed up his quad supposedly training for the draft. Now why is that somebody I want to spend a first round draft pick on? 

[BillsFanForever19]

27 minutes ago, Vickveto said:

Everbody wants booth so bad. But what is so shocking to me is that nobody mentions he is undergoing surgery right now. ON A CORE MUSCLE He messed up his quad supposedly training for the draft. Now why is that somebody I want to spend a first round draft pick on? 

 

Because it wasn't considered serious and his recovery has him missing no time at all? His timetable has him back at 100% by Training Camp.

[newcam2012]

12 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I mean Josh Norris (formerly of Rotoworld, now of some fantasy football site) had 16 exact matches in his final mock last year. That is a hell of a result. 

Did he beat your results? You are pretty good in my book. 

[OldTimer1960]

2 hours ago, Vickveto said:

I believe there are three veteran corners on the market that will be better than any corner at 25 this year. Not included the bradberry situation which he is another option.

IF true and IF signed before the draft, OK, but if not then I think it is foolish to count on that as the draft starts.