Bills RedZone efficiency going into The Pats* Game Week 15 2021 MUST WIN

[muppy]

check this out 2bders.....and Yes I think this game is Must Win if it hasn't been already stated.

 

Quote

..The Bills 8-6 season has come down more to how we execute in the red zone, in the 4Q, more so this season than any recent one I can recall, as 4 of our 6 losses would have been wins, if the team just completes one more red zone TD pass, or can run just one more in

WHOA! I hadn't read this before. What do you think?

 

m

 

 

Edited December 21, 2021 by muppy

[Shortchaz]

“Morsoe”. My head hurts 

[HamSandwhich]

I think that’s obvious. We’ve gotta play better in the red zone, we’ve been woefully inadequate and shouldn’t be with the talent on this team. Not just in the 4th quarter!

[muppy]

2 minutes ago, HamSandwhich said:

I think that’s obvious. We’ve gotta play better in the red zone, we’ve been woefully inadequate and shouldn’t be with the talent on this team. Not just in the 4th quarter!

What this means for me is the Bills can tweak a few of those issues and be sitting pretty if they do and if they can come up clutch in those times inside the 20. Im putting the positive energy out there they WILL be better going forward *hopes

 

GO BILLS

[\GoBillsInDallas/]

The red zone is for immediate loading and unloading of passengers only. There is no stopping in a white zone.

[Patrick Duffy]

3 minutes ago, muppy said:

What this means for me is the Bills can tweak a few of those issues and be sitting pretty if they do and if they can come up clutch in those times inside the 20. Im putting the positive energy out there they WILL be better going forward *hopes

 

GO BILLS

Davis has been doing well in the redzone recently. Hopefully we see more of the same.

[Captain_Quint]

Last year it was a strength (along with 3rd down conversions) and we won 13 games. We took a step back in both areas this year.

It's not a surprise that we are struggling to put wins together (except the blowouts) when you fall short in those two areas. 

 

That needs to change this week and in the playoffs, or we will be in the same boat: competitive games, but no cigar.

[Patrick Duffy]

Also Josh needs to snap his 1 INT per game streak that's like 5 games in a row or something like that.

[SoCal Deek]

Unless it’s a blowout on Sunday, which I highly doubt, Josh is going to have a huge opportunity to erase all the ghosts of the 2021 season by putting the ball in end zone when we need it for a fourth quarter victory. Let’s pray he and Daboll can remain calm and simply call/execute the play this time.

Go Bills

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

I have a theory on the redzone this year.

 

I feel like the Bills have had a disproportionate number of first and goals from the 10 yard line. i wish I had time to do a deeper dive on this, but I swear that a vast number of times we are goal to go, we have to go the full 10 yards. I think that obviously

makes it harder to score in such a situation. 

[SoCal Deek]

4 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

I have a theory on the redzone this year.

 

I feel like the Bills have had a disproportionate number of first and goals from the 10 yard line. i wish I had time to do a deeper dive on this, but I swear that a vast number of times we are goal to go, we have to go the full 10 yards. I think that obviously

makes it harder to score in such a situation. 

Some would maintain that it’s actually easier because it gives the receivers more room to work…especially when we don’t have a strong running game. I believe it all comes down to poor play design and play calling.

Edited December 21, 2021 by SoCal Deek

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

38 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Some would maintain that it’s actually easier because it gives the receivers more room to work…especially when we don’t have a strong running game. I believe it all comes down to poor play design and play calling.

that would be true, except the Bills love to run it from there and waste a down. 

[T master]

58 minutes ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

Also Josh needs to snap his 1 INT per game streak that's like 5 games in a row or something like that.

 

And the linemen need to stop with the penalties that sure couldn't hurt anything .

[InTheBuffAllTheTime]

2 hours ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

Also Josh needs to snap his 1 INT per game streak that's like 5 games in a row or something like that.

While I agree that INTs (or any turnovers) are obviously undesirable, I have no issue with Josh being aggressive with downfield throws. MUCH easier to take the 1 INT per game along with 2-3 passing TDs - the Carolina game is a perfect example of that. Pretty hard to have sustained success without a failure from time to time

[SoCal Deek]

1 hour ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

that would be true, except the Bills love to run it from there and waste a down. 

The Bills don’t….Daboll does. 😉

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

2 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

I have a theory on the redzone this year.

 

I feel like the Bills have had a disproportionate number of first and goals from the 10 yard line. i wish I had time to do a deeper dive on this, but I swear that a vast number of times we are goal to go, we have to go the full 10 yards. I think that obviously

makes it harder to score in such a situation. 

 I agree with this. Also can’t prove my further theory that their conservative play calling is the cause of the 1st and goals from the 9 or 10. Instead of trying for TDs once they’re in the red zone, safely in fg range, they aim to get another first down. 

[SoCal Deek]

How do the Bills score from the ten yard line? Simple. You roll Allen to the right and force the defender to make a choice between stopping him on the bootleg or covering the WR/TE. It’s not friggin complicated Daboll! 

[Motorin']

5 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

How do the Bills score from the ten yard line? Simple. You roll Allen to the right and force the defender to make a choice between stopping him on the bootleg or covering the WR/TE. It’s not friggin complicated Daboll! 

 

KC has that go to play in the red zone where Mahomes rolls right and under hands it to a back or TE running across his face  into the center of the line. Almost always works. 

 

We have that Josh RPO where it's a QB run to the right with a TE delay route that forces them the defend Josh on the run  or cover the TE. But it's almost like the Daboll outsmarts himself by refusing to go back to what works...

 

Also more jet sweeps to mcKenzie in goal to go. 

 

And more wr's coming in motion full speed and sprinting to the pylon for the quick out. 

 

 

 

Edited December 21, 2021 by Motorin'

[SoCal Deek]

21 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

KC has that go to play in the red zone where Mahomes rolls right and under hands it to a back or TE running across his face  into the center of the line. Almost always works. 

 

We have that Josh RPO where it's a QB run to the right with a TE delay route that forces them the defend Josh on the run  or cover the TE. But it's almost like the Daboll outsmarts himself by refusing to go back to what works...

 

Also more jet sweeps to mcKenzie in goal to go. 

 

And more wr's coming in motion full speed and sprinting to the pylon for the quick out. 

 

 

 

Bingo!

[DapperCam]

Bills are 12th in red zone TD %. Not terrible, not great. Notable teams worse than us: KC, Pats, Titans, Bengals, Colts (i.e. every team ahead of us in playoff seeding except the Chargers, which are barely better at 10th).

 

Idk what my point is here, but it seems like we’ve done “well enough”. I think we’re just traumatized by all the close games with us failing in the red zone at the end of the game.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

3 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

Some would maintain that it’s actually easier because it gives the receivers more room to work…especially when we don’t have a strong running game. I believe it all comes down to poor play design and play calling.

You really think it is play calling? When Daboll calls a run and it goes for a yard is that really the play call? 

I would concur with you on the fad pass to Diggs against Tampa on 3rd down. Hated that call but almost the exact play scored a TD last week. Also JA missed a TD pass to Davis in the Pats game.

I think it is 90% execution and 10% play calling. As for play calling I would prefer a little more pocket movement and a screen pass if they are around the 15 yard line.

And lastly more Knox!

[Boatdrinks]

3 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

Some would maintain that it’s actually easier because it gives the receivers more room to work…especially when we don’t have a strong running game. I believe it all comes down to poor play design and play calling.

I’d concur on the play calling / design. Not one to get too hung up on play calling over execution but Daboll has been decidedly lackluster in the RZ this year, going with unimaginative low % fades and such. 

[NewEra]

4 hours ago, muppy said:

What this means for me is the Bills can tweak a few of those issues and be sitting pretty if they do and if they can come up clutch in those times inside the 20. Im putting the positive energy out there they WILL be better going forward *hopes

 

GO BILLS

Red zone and run D breakdowns. Tampa, NE and Tenn each won the game because of a long TD run.  Our run d was fine in each of those 3 games that changed the narrative from us having a great D to “they can’t stop the run”……minus the huge runs.  
 

Long runs, random bone headed plays, red zone O and the refs.  

[Rubes]

The play fake Allen did on the final 4th and 2 was a work of art. Why don't we do more of that? Would have loved to have seen that on the late 3rd and 2 against the Bucs.

[SoCal Deek]

1 hour ago, Ethan in Portland said:

You really think it is play calling? When Daboll calls a run and it goes for a yard is that really the play call? 

I would concur with you on the fad pass to Diggs against Tampa on 3rd down. Hated that call but almost the exact play scored a TD last week. Also JA missed a TD pass to Davis in the Pats game.

I think it is 90% execution and 10% play calling. As for play calling I would prefer a little more pocket movement and a screen pass if they are around the 15 yard line.

And lastly more Knox!

Yes, I believe it play calling. Daboll's plays rely on one-on-one plays from playmakers.  It's essentially all or nothing. If the defense guesses correctly, the Bills are screwed. If the play doesn't unfold exactly as you'd like it to, the Bills are screwed. If someone stumbles, slips or falls, the Bills are screwed.  When you have a weapon like Josh Allen, you want to put the defense on defense, and make them make a decision.  Then Josh can be Josh and take what they give him.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

5 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

I have a theory on the redzone this year.

 

I feel like the Bills have had a disproportionate number of first and goals from the 10 yard line. i wish I had time to do a deeper dive on this, but I swear that a vast number of times we are goal to go, we have to go the full 10 yards. I think that obviously

makes it harder to score in such a situation. 

Immediately followed by a run creating 2nd and goal from the 9 lol

[LeGOATski]

They seem to have fixed their red zone issues in the 2nd half of the Tampa game. They had no issues verse Carolina. I feel like this post is a couple weeks late...

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 minute ago, LeGOATski said:

They seem to have fixed their red zone issues in the 2nd half of the Tampa game. They had no issues verse Carolina. I feel like this post is a couple weeks late...

Carolina has a great defense too so that is encouraging.  Unfortunately we had to match up with the pats defense and the wind in that last game against them in the red zone. Gotta think he hits that back shoulder throw to diggs for the TD to win the game like 80% of the time.  I think that was on the second to last red zone drive 

[SoCal Deek]

7 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

They seem to have fixed their red zone issues in the 2nd half of the Tampa game. They had no issues verse Carolina. I feel like this post is a couple weeks late...

It's only fixed for as long as Daboll understands what fixed it.  If it turns out he's just spinning bottle up there, or flipping a coin, then they aren't really fixed. You can probably tell that I have less than zero confidence in him. His play calling looks more like a random selection from a big play card, than it does a purposeful strategy based on our personnel, field position, or opponent.

[Big Turk]

6 hours ago, Captain_Quint said:

Last year it was a strength (along with 3rd down conversions) and we won 13 games. We took a step back in both areas this year.

It's not a surprise that we are struggling to put wins together (except the blowouts) when you fall short in those two areas. 

 

That needs to change this week and in the playoffs, or we will be in the same boat: competitive games, but no cigar.

 

Uhh...we converted 46.65% of 3rd downs last year compared to 45.56% this year...if that is a "step back" it's the tiniest step ever taken.  It also still ranks 3rd overall in the NFL behind KC and TB.

[Captain_Quint]

33 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Uhh...we converted 46.65% of 3rd downs last year compared to 45.56% this year...if that is a "step back" it's the tiniest step ever taken.  It also still ranks 3rd overall in the NFL behind KC and TB.

Well that seems worse than it is then. I guess it's just red zone in key situations where they need to improve.

 

[Boatdrinks]

1 hour ago, Captain_Quint said:

Well that seems worse than it is then. I guess it's just red zone in key situations where they need to improve.

 

That’s pretty much it. That also includes execution but strategy and play calling as well. Wishing you have dominant run blocking OL doesn’t make it so. Daboll needs to be better. A big part of the perception that the Bills offense is far worse than last year is their 0-5 record in 1 score games. They haven’t regressed to the mean after going 5-1 in such games last year.. they’ve regressed to the bottom. 

[Heathcliff]

13 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

I have a theory on the redzone this year.

 

I feel like the Bills have had a disproportionate number of first and goals from the 10 yard line. i wish I had time to do a deeper dive on this, but I swear that a vast number of times we are goal to go, we have to go the full 10 yards. I think that obviously

makes it harder to score in such a situation. 

I have witnessed and mentioned this multiple times. Your recall matches mine. 

[JoshAllin]

They need to use 3 go to high percentage plays when down there. They usually start off with 2 wasted plays and 1 go to play which is usually a coinflip down there

[Scott7975]

This should be better now that they aren't wasting a down on Moss every time.