Kubiak on Miami-Bills game: Missing in Action Screen Game located

[Hapless Bills Fan]

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/jim-kubiak-how-josh-allen-and-bills-capitalized-on-dolphins-blitzing-ways/article_01f0b9aa-3b5d-11ec-a100-bf764b489d38.html

 

For those who say the Bills never run screens, 1/3 of the 16 plays run in the 2Q were screens.  Some of them worked quite well.

 

He has this to say about the 1st half:

Quote

Allen was pressing the entire first half, trying his best to get big plays, mostly when they weren’t open and certainly when they were outside his passing progressions. His tendency to choose the high-risk play can be traced to his need to do more than is required of his job on a given play. Open receivers underneath coverage are more valuable than the alluring prospect of deeper shots down the field. His lack of efficiency and patience was the key factor in the Bills’ slow offensive start.

 

So for those blaming the RBs or blaming the OL, Another Country Heard From.

 

About the Blitz:

Quote

The Dolphins blitzed 25 times on 48 dropbacks, according to News charts, the most any opponent has blitzed against the Bills this season. Allen was 3 for 8 against the blitz in the first half, and 12 for 15 in the second. He totaled 119 yards and two touchdowns.

12 for 15 numbers sound like the reason Allen doesn't get blitzed so much any more.

 

On the Bills first Q offensive woes (only 9 plays) Kubiak points to the play after Allen's long run:

Quote

It was in the very next moment, however, that you could see Allen’s desire to make another big play as he went for it all on a well-covered out-and-up.

 

Here, it appears Allen’s mind is made up, and he is going deep no matter what the defense does. As you look closely at the footage, you can see running back Zack Moss standing undisturbed and uncovered in front of Allen for what would have been another first down. Miami cornerback Byron Jones did not bite on the double-move out-and-up fake and Allen looks to his right preemptively, trying to influence the free safety away from receiver Emmanuel Sanders. This tells you that Allen was thinking about taking a shot regardless of the coverage.

 

Completing the throw to Moss or tight end Tommy Sweeney on the other side would have been the right answer for Allen here, but his desire for a big play got the better of him. This take-a-shot mentality wore into the second quarter and caused him to lose his composure in frustration on the sideline. Sure he was fired up at the offensive line and the referees, but he was also frustrated that the offense was sputtering. Miami wasn’t playing great defense; Allen was not attacking the Dolphins’ weaknesses.

 

Let's say that again: "Miami wasn't playing great defense, Allen was not attacking the Dolphins' weaknesses."

 

Allen says the right stuff (for example, on the broadcast with the Mannings) about needing to take the short stuff in order to get teams out of the two high safety looks.  But when he's on the field, and his adrenaline is rocking, the "blinders" still go on at times and he simply WILL NOT take what the defense is handing him on a platter.

 

Fortunately he snapped out of it in the second half, as Kubiak grades him 100% for both the 3Q and 4Q.

 

Kubiak concludes:

Quote

it is worth noting that Allen’s attitude was focused only on what he could do in the second half and much less of what was happening around him. If this play would have happened in the first half, we might have seen him react negatively. In this case, I was most impressed with his ability to put all of the first-half distractions behind him and do what he was made to do, throw touchdowns despite surrounding circumstances.

 

Ultimately, Allen had only one minus in the third quarter. The simple change in what he started to look for – the short passing game – made all the difference in the outcome.

 

and concludes:

 

Quote

Allen scored an overall performance grade of 92%, threw a pair of touchdowns, ran for another and completed 70% of his passes. Allen played flawlessly in the second half and managed to overcome his early eagerness to create plays that weren’t there.

 

When the Bills have too much time to prepare for an opponent – such as the Steelers in the season opener and the Dolphins coming off the bye – they tend to overthink things. It sometimes appears as if they try to do too much, perhaps because they have so much talent at their disposal.

 

Allen’s biggest challenge going forward will be controlling and focusing his talents. He has the ability to make any throw on the field, and most quarterbacks don’t have that luxury. Allen is different, and has an extraordinary ability to physically make plays that almost no one else can make. The difficulty is reining himself in. Hopefully, he is learning that his best performances are built around his efficiency, not his long passing abilities. Allen must focus himself on one thing going forward. He must shape his performances around what it will ultimately take to win.

 

He can be both a greedy “two birds in the bush” type of quarterback as well as an unstoppable “bird in the hand” player. We saw first-hand in this game those two strategies, and I for one, am hoping the “bird in the hand” quarterback returns in the remaining weeks of the season because that version of Allen can win a Super Bowl.

 

I don't see anything here about how we've got the worst OL in the league that simply doesn't give Allen the time he needs to function.  Allen can lead the Bills to wins behind this OL; he simply has to keep his composure and take what the defense gives him, even if that means passing up some of the "kill shots"

[Mango]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/jim-kubiak-how-josh-allen-and-bills-capitalized-on-dolphins-blitzing-ways/article_01f0b9aa-3b5d-11ec-a100-bf764b489d38.html

 

For those who say the Bills never run screens, 1/3 of the 16 plays run in the 2Q were screens.  Some of them worked quite well.

 

He has this to say about the 1st half:

 

So for those blaming the RBs or blaming the OL, Another Country Heard From.

 

About the Blitz:

12 for 15 numbers sound like the reason Allen doesn't get blitzed so much any more.

 

On the Bills first Q offensive woes (only 9 plays) Kubiak points to the play after Allen's long run:

 

Let's say that again: "Miami wasn't playing great defense, Allen was not attacking the Dolphins' weaknesses."

 

Allen says the right stuff (for example, on the broadcast with the Mannings) about needing to take the short stuff in order to get teams out of the two high safety looks.  But when he's on the field, and his adrenaline is rocking, the "blinders" still go on at times and he simply WILL NOT take what the defense is handing him on a platter.

 

Fortunately he snapped out of it in the second half, as Kubiak grades him 100% for both the 3Q and 4Q.

 

Kubiak concludes:

 

and concludes:

 

 

I don't see anything here about how we've got the worst OL in the league that simply doesn't give Allen the time he needs to function.  Allen can lead the Bills to wins behind this OL; he simply has to keep his composure and take what the defense gives him, even if that means passing up some of the "kill shots"

 

I am one of the screen game Haters.  Not that we don’t run them, but traditionally they haven’t been very good for us. I noticed it was much better vs Miami.
 

But for whatever reason, screens feel like so much work for us. Peyton made note of something last night I thought was interesting. It has looked to me like Allen has been locking in on receivers early this year, screens included. Peyton made note that Mahomes had been locking in on his screens early in the game, but started to hold the safety’s for a second with his eyes then hit the screen. 
 

Not sure that’s thing that’s been happening with Josh, but it is something I immediately thought of when I heard that. 

[MJS]

I don't think anybody believes the oline is the worst in the league. I think they are average. You can win with them. You can also lose with them. Sometimes they are going to help you, sometimes they are going to hurt you.

[billsfan_34]

19 minutes ago, MJS said:

I don't think anybody believes the oline is the worst in the league. I think they are average. You can win with them. You can also lose with them. Sometimes they are going to help you, sometimes they are going to hurt you.

Our O line as a whole is average. The interior of the O line is below average. 

[Johnnycage46]

48 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/jim-kubiak-how-josh-allen-and-bills-capitalized-on-dolphins-blitzing-ways/article_01f0b9aa-3b5d-11ec-a100-bf764b489d38.html

 

For those who say the Bills never run screens, 1/3 of the 16 plays run in the 2Q were screens.  Some of them worked quite well.

 

He has this to say about the 1st half:

 

So for those blaming the RBs or blaming the OL, Another Country Heard From.

 

About the Blitz:

12 for 15 numbers sound like the reason Allen doesn't get blitzed so much any more.

 

On the Bills first Q offensive woes (only 9 plays) Kubiak points to the play after Allen's long run:

 

Let's say that again: "Miami wasn't playing great defense, Allen was not attacking the Dolphins' weaknesses."

 

Allen says the right stuff (for example, on the broadcast with the Mannings) about needing to take the short stuff in order to get teams out of the two high safety looks.  But when he's on the field, and his adrenaline is rocking, the "blinders" still go on at times and he simply WILL NOT take what the defense is handing him on a platter.

 

Fortunately he snapped out of it in the second half, as Kubiak grades him 100% for both the 3Q and 4Q.

 

Kubiak concludes:

 

and concludes:

 

 

I don't see anything here about how we've got the worst OL in the league that simply doesn't give Allen the time he needs to function.  Allen can lead the Bills to wins behind this OL; he simply has to keep his composure and take what the defense gives him, even if that means passing up some of the "kill shots"

 

I think this all rings true and seemed to play out in the opposite in the 2nd half when Allen was feeding Beasley on a lot of shorter throws and letting him make a move and pick up a few extra yards.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

51 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

I don’t think anyone is arguing that Allen can’t “lead the Bills to wins behind this OL”…. The argument or question is is the line good enough to get to and win a SB…or better yet, can Allen carry the offense and shotty offensive line on his back all the way to a SB victory? He’s an incredible QB who willed the team to victory Sunday, but when he is getting hit and pressured in the pocket he begins to not trust his protection and starts looking at the rush(as we saw against Pitt and even 1st half against the Titans). 

 

I think you're missing the point, but I doubt anything I could say would penetrate your mental armor and suffice to explain it.

[JaCrispy]

When Allen finally learns to consistently take what the defense is giving him, we will win a Super Bowl...question is- can he contain his emotions long enough to be patient for an ENTIRE game? Stay tuned...👍

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, MJS said:

I don't think anybody believes the oline is the worst in the league.

 

Hi!  Meet Scott7975.  He may possibly be ScottLaw's Brudda by another mudda.

 

1 hour ago, MJS said:

I think they are average. You can win with them. You can also lose with them. Sometimes they are going to help you, sometimes they are going to hurt you.

 

I agree with you.  They are average.  There are two points here:

1) Kubiak's point, that sometimes Allen is looking for well-covered downfield throws and waiting for something to come open, when he could take a short throw to one of two wide-open receivers right in front of him, and trust his teammates to make a play

 

2) My corollary, that the line would look sufficient more often and like a complete jailbreak less often, if Allen did this

 

Allen is getting better at this.  I see encouraging signs. 

 

In the KC game I saw stuff where I was YES!  He threw into the Blitz to the Hot Read!  and YES!  He took the checkdown!  But then in the Tenn. game and the 1st half of the MIA game, a step back.

 

And if the other team scores 20 or 21 points on offense while we're figuring it out (as Miami could have were they more competent on offense), it's liable to be an L.

 

Just now, JaCrispy said:

When Allen finally learns to consistently take what the defense is giving him, we will win a Super Bowl...question is- can he contain his emotions long enough to be patient for an ENTIRE game? Stay tuned...👍

 

When You're Right, You're Right.

[WhoTom]

Thread title implies that it was Miami's screen game that was featured. Did you mean "BUF Screen Game Located"?

[TPS]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/jim-kubiak-how-josh-allen-and-bills-capitalized-on-dolphins-blitzing-ways/article_01f0b9aa-3b5d-11ec-a100-bf764b489d38.html

 

For those who say the Bills never run screens, 1/3 of the 16 plays run in the 2Q were screens.  Some of them worked quite well.

 

He has this to say about the 1st half:

 

So for those blaming the RBs or blaming the OL, Another Country Heard From.

 

About the Blitz:

12 for 15 numbers sound like the reason Allen doesn't get blitzed so much any more.

 

On the Bills first Q offensive woes (only 9 plays) Kubiak points to the play after Allen's long run:

 

Let's say that again: "Miami wasn't playing great defense, Allen was not attacking the Dolphins' weaknesses."

 

Allen says the right stuff (for example, on the broadcast with the Mannings) about needing to take the short stuff in order to get teams out of the two high safety looks.  But when he's on the field, and his adrenaline is rocking, the "blinders" still go on at times and he simply WILL NOT take what the defense is handing him on a platter.

 

Fortunately he snapped out of it in the second half, as Kubiak grades him 100% for both the 3Q and 4Q.

 

Kubiak concludes:

 

and concludes:

 

 

I don't see anything here about how we've got the worst OL in the league that simply doesn't give Allen the time he needs to function.  Allen can lead the Bills to wins behind this OL; he simply has to keep his composure and take what the defense gives him, even if that means passing up some of the "kill shots"

Thanks for this. More confirmation that "only Josh Allen can beat Josh Allen."

[WhoTom]

3 minutes ago, TPS said:

"only Josh Allen can beat Josh Allen."

 

Someone needs to tape that to Josh's locker.

 

 

[BearNorth]

22 minutes ago, billsfan_34 said:

Our O line as a whole is average. The interior of the O line is below average. 

Actually our O line is comparable to the Ravens, Bengals, and Steelers, our offensive line is exactly at the average of the 7 AFC teams with records above .500.

 

Tenn is currently the best O line in the AFC, although we will see how much is due to King Henry. Chargers also have a solid group, Raiders line is garbage, but Carr and Jacobs compensate to some extent.

 

Wonder if anyone has calculated the number & % of plays where JA17 has succeeded when his line has not.

[Logic]

Thanks for sharing this.

 

I read an article on The Ringer the other day: 

 

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2021/11/1/22757426/afc-leading-teams-titans-ravens-chiefs-bills 

 

It points out that, according to Sports Info Solutions, the Bills led the league last year in success rate on short dropback plays. This year, they’ve fallen to 16th. That’s quite the drop off! 
 

The short passing game, the “taking what is given”, the requisite composure to not try to do too much and to trust your playmakers…Allen seems to be having a harder time with these than he did last year. Im not really sure why. Perhaps how defenses are playing him?

 

 

As others have already said, the key to winning a Lombardi lies in Allen re-discovering his 2020 form in these areas.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

19 minutes ago, WhoTom said:

Thread title implies that it was Miami's screen game that was featured. Did you mean "BUF Screen Game Located"?

 

Valid.  Mia vs MIA too subtle.  I edited.

 

I will take the opportunity to add in, it's not that I don't think our OL needs improvement, especially at G.  I do.

 

But I don't think they're necessarily the primary reason for struggles in the passing game, when we struggle.  Scheme plays a role (we seem susceptible to stunts), and so does the QB play (looking for the deep shot vs. looking for the quick pass)

[LeGOATski]

1 hour ago, Johnnycage46 said:

 

I think this all rings true and seemed to play out in the opposite in the 2nd half when Allen was feeding Beasley on a lot of shorter throws and letting him make a move and pick up a few extra yards.

Sometimes I feel like it depends on the player too. Josh is much more likely to settle for Beasley than he is for a RB or backup TE.

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Hi!  Meet Scott7975.  He may possibly be ScottLaw's Brudda by another mudda.

 

 

I agree with you.  They are average.  There are two points here:

1) Kubiak's point, that sometimes Allen is looking for well-covered downfield throws and waiting for something to come open, when he could take a short throw to one of two wide-open receivers right in front of him, and trust his teammates to make a play

 

2) My corollary, that the line would look sufficient more often and like a complete jailbreak less often, if Allen did this

 

Allen is getting better at this.  I see encouraging signs. 

 

In the KC game I saw stuff where I was YES!  He threw into the Blitz to the Hot Read!  and YES!  He took the checkdown!  But then in the Tenn. game and the 1st half of the MIA game, a step back.

 

And if the other team scores 20 or 21 points on offense while we're figuring it out (as Miami could have were they more competent on offense), it's liable to be an L.

 

 

When You're Right, You're Right.

 

First of all this is the second time you have equated me with Scottlaw. I am nothing like Scottlaw and you will rarely find me complaining about this team.

 

Secondly point to where I said this o line is the worst in the league.  I said its bottom 10 and in some cases bottom 5.  Stats and rankings back that up.  I will choose those and my own eye test over your eye test alone.

 

The o line is terrible.  Allen makes it look better.  You have debated nothing against the stats.  Until you think you can try to do so, I would stop.  Generally I like your posting but you are rather annoying here.

[billsfan_34]

1 hour ago, BearNorth said:

Actually our O line is comparable to the Ravens, Bengals, and Steelers, our offensive line is exactly at the average of the 7 AFC teams with records above .500.

 

Tenn is currently the best O line in the AFC, although we will see how much is due to King Henry. Chargers also have a solid group, Raiders line is garbage, but Carr and Jacobs compensate to some extent.

 

Wonder if anyone has calculated the number & % of plays where JA17 has succeeded when his line has not.

Interesting stats thanks for sharing. 

[billsfan1959]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Allen says the right stuff (for example, on the broadcast with the Mannings) about needing to take the short stuff in order to get teams out of the two high safety looks.  But when he's on the field, and his adrenaline is rocking, the "blinders" still go on at times and he simply WILL NOT take what the defense is handing him on a platter.

I think he has been a lot better this year with taking what the defense is giving him, but, like the first half against Miami, he still has his moments. I actually think much of what we’re seeing with Mahomes this year, in terms of his struggles, is the same issue. Teams are doing their best to take away the big play and force him to take the short stuff down the field. Just my opinion, but it seems QBs like Allen and Mahomes just operate from such supreme confidence in their abilities to make those big plays - no matter what the defense does - that they sometimes have more difficulty being patient than most QBs. And, they appear to get frustrated easier when they are unable to play their style. Maybe something to that whole “gunslinger mentality?”

 

When Allen has the patience and finds that balance, he is almost unstoppable.

[Scott7975]

Let me repost those stats for you so you can try and tell people the O line is average.  This is all passing stats so it wont even include how bad they are at run blocking

 

Blitzed 23rd lowest %

Allen pressured 25.3% of his passing attempts 9th worst

Allen hurried 6th most

Allen hit 5th most

Pocket time until collapsed 2.4 seconds 7th worst

 

Anybody care to explain to me how the o line is just fine, average, not terrible or whatever?  Please don't give me your eye test garbage.

Edited November 3, 2021 by Scott7975

[Hapless Bills Fan]

19 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

First of all this is the second time you have equated me with Scottlaw. I am nothing like Scottlaw and you will rarely find me complaining about this team.

 

We'll do our own "eye test" on that one

 

19 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

Secondly point to where I said this o line is the worst in the league.  I said its bottom 10 and in some cases bottom 5.  Stats and rankings back that up.  I will choose those and my own eye test over your eye test alone.

 

You said what you were fairly quoted as saying "one of the worst".  You then backtracked to 23rd out of 32 (mediocre, middle of the NFL) to 27 out of 32 depending upon the metric.  You were asked for the source of those stats and how some of them were defined.  You didn't answer.  It's kind of hard to debate against unsourced, undefined stuff.

 

Someone else posted some (equally unsourced) stats claiming the Bills OL is comparable to the Ravens, Bengals and Steelers and "exactly at the average of the 7 AFC teams with records above 0.500".  How about if you go debate that?  Oh wait, without knowing the source and what that means...you can't

 

19 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

You have debated nothing against the stats.  Until you think you can try to do so, I would stop.  Generally I like your posting but you are rather annoying here.

 

I raised a number of points questioning the meaning of low values on some of your stats.  You didn't respond, just repeated them 🤷‍♂️

 

[Scott7975]

27 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

We'll do our own "eye test" on that one

 

 

You said what you were fairly quoted as saying "one of the worst".  You then backtracked to 23rd out of 32 (mediocre, middle of the NFL) to 27 out of 32 depending upon the metric.  You were asked for the source of those stats and how some of them were defined.  You didn't answer.  It's kind of hard to debate against unsourced, undefined stuff.

 

Someone else posted some (equally unsourced) stats claiming the Bills OL is comparable to the Ravens, Bengals and Steelers and "exactly at the average of the 7 AFC teams with records above 0.500".  How about if you go debate that?  Oh wait, without knowing the source and what that means...you can't

 

 

I raised a number of points questioning the meaning of low values on some of your stats.  You didn't respond, just repeated them 🤷‍♂️

 

 

Serious question... are you on drugs or drunk?

 

Do your eye test.  You'll see I have complained about bad o line and sometime Daboll.  that's about it. 

 

They are one of the worst.  I said Bottom 10 to bottom 5 not 23 out of 32(which is bottom 10 btw not middle of the NFL.)  Is any of those saying "WORST in the league."  I think not.

 

You asked for the source.  I gave it to you. 

 

Give me the source of that one stat

 

I answered all your direct questions.  If you didn't read them, that's not my fault is it?  I gave you the source as well as the definition of pocket time.  Its there.  Go look.

Edited November 3, 2021 by Scott7975

[Scott7975]

Blitzed 23rd least...

 

[ngbills]

Our rb’s are not the playmakers on this roster. That is why I don’t like an emphasis on screens or swings. Once in while to keep the d guessing but the goal should be to get the ball to diggs, Beas, sanders. Daboll still seems to want to showcase moss a lot at times. Don’t get it. 

[Scott7975]

Pressure %...

 

Pocket time

 

Hurried

 

Hit

 

I realize the image quality is poor but they had to be reduced to put them on this website that has a very low size limit

 

Link to the stats: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/passing_advanced.htm

[Scott7975]

All that together = Josh Allen is pressured 7th most in the league = O line pass protection is garbage.  These stats don't have anything to do with how long he holds the ball either.

 

Any debate other than your own eye ball test yet @Hapless Bills Fan?

[Scott7975]

I will add about the run protection... This was last year and I cant find this year but I doubt they have gotten much better if at all...

 

Quote

 In 2020, Bills running backs were contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage on 43% of their carries, the worst rate in the league. Based on this stat, perhaps we undervalued the running backs, who would certainly look more impressive with better blocking

 

Edited November 3, 2021 by Scott7975

[Motorin']

2 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

Pressure %...

 

Pocket time

 

Hurried

 

Hit

 

I realize the image quality is poor but they had to be reduced to put them on this website that has a very low size limit

 

Link to the stats: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/passing_advanced.htm

 

You do realize that Allen's 2.4 second Pocket Time is tied for 3rd best in the league according to these stats? 

 

So rather than being given the 9th least of amount of time in the pocket by his OL, he's being given the 3rd most (along with several other qb's). 

[WideNine]

5 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Hi!  Meet Scott7975.  He may possibly be ScottLaw's Brudda by another mudda.

 

 

I agree with you.  They are average.  There are two points here:

1) Kubiak's point, that sometimes Allen is looking for well-covered downfield throws and waiting for something to come open, when he could take a short throw to one of two wide-open receivers right in front of him, and trust his teammates to make a play

 

2) My corollary, that the line would look sufficient more often and like a complete jailbreak less often, if Allen did this

 

Allen is getting better at this.  I see encouraging signs. 

 

In the KC game I saw stuff where I was YES!  He threw into the Blitz to the Hot Read!  and YES!  He took the checkdown!  But then in the Tenn. game and the 1st half of the MIA game, a step back.

 

And if the other team scores 20 or 21 points on offense while we're figuring it out (as Miami could have were they more competent on offense), it's liable to be an L.

 

 

When You're Right, You're Right.

 

This is exactly where I am at.

 

Our line was porous early, and the juggled roles were not adapting well to what Miami was doing to bring pressure, BUT Allen getting rid of the ball more quickly to his hot reads or outlet/dump receiving options underneath can better mask those issues.

 

After that long scramble in the first half I saw the same thing on that next play - Moss open near the sticks, but Allen was determined to force it to Sanders.

 

Instead of taking the open options underneath we ended up having to have Bass bail us out with a long FG.

 

Allen just needs to know where his outlets are, trust them, and train his brain to look short-to-deep when there is a 2-high safety look.

 

The fact that he has done it more, and started feeding Beas and Moss in the 2nd half tells me that he will get there eventually. 

 

[Utah John]

Consider the possibility that the coaches had a chat with Allen at halftime, telling him that he needed to take the easy stuff and stop trying to be a hero.  Allen might be a demigod to some here, but to the coaches he's one of their good players but still someone they can criticize as necessary.  It's their job to make sure Allen does HIS job.

 

His stats for the second half were quite good.  Double those (as if he'd been playing smart the whole game) and he would have had an excellent game.  

[GunnerBill]

I thought there were far too many screens on Sunday. Felt to me like Daboll was intentionally coaching around his offensive line. Some of that was justified but they pushed it a bit far IMO. We started moving the ball once we threw it down the field. We are not a great screen team as a whole.

[Scott7975]

2 hours ago, Motorin' said:

 

You do realize that Allen's 2.4 second Pocket Time is tied for 3rd best in the league according to these stats? 

 

So rather than being given the 9th least of amount of time in the pocket by his OL, he's being given the 3rd most (along with several other qb's). 

 

actually you might be correct on that.  Ill look again tomorrow I think the column was reversed when I looked.  Doesnt change anything else though.

Edited November 3, 2021 by Scott7975

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

Serious question... are you on drugs or drunk?

 

Serious answer: this is an inappropriate way to lead off a  civil discussion about football on here.  It's what you do when you're looking for a fight, not a discussion.

 

You get a free pass here because you're dealing with a mod, but I absolutely will not engage with someone who starts off this way, and that's a (one) free pass. 

 

Knock it off and stay civil.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

38 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I thought there were far too many screens on Sunday. Felt to me like Daboll was intentionally coaching around his offensive line. Some of that was justified but they pushed it a bit far IMO. We started moving the ball once we threw it down the field. We are not a great screen team as a whole.

 

The reason there were so many screens in the 2Q and beyond (15) was that the Dolphins were blitzing a lot and showing a lot of Cover 0.

The two classic ways to deal with overload blitzes and Cover 0 are screens, or if you can protect long enough a deep route to the middle of the field.

 

The Diggs TD was an example of the latter, the 2Q plays were the former.

 

If we'd managed to sustain drives in the 2Q I'm sure the Dolphins would have gotten out of it, as they did in the 2nd half.

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The reason there were so many screens in the 2Q and beyond (15) was that the Dolphins were blitzing a lot and showing a lot of Cover 0.

The two classic ways to deal with overload blitzes and Cover 0 are screens, or if you can protect long enough a deep route to the middle of the field.

 

The Diggs TD was an example of the latter, the 2Q plays were the former.

 

If we'd managed to sustain drives in the 2Q I'm sure the Dolphins would have gotten out of it, as they did in the 2nd half.

 

Yea I am more of a burn the blitz guy than a throw screens guy. Especially when last season Josh was a beast at burning the blitz and as a rule we have not been a great screen team. I just thought we got them too early and too often. Not suggesting they don't have a place but my preference would be to set up shot hot routes for our receivers in the areas the blitzing defenders are leaving unguarded. Screens still need good blocking outside and we haven't shown we are great at executing in those situations. There were a coupe of nicely timed and well called screens - the one to Moss early on the drive at the end of the second quarter was very well timed I just thought we went overboard with them. My whole thing was they were not particularly helping us sustain drives and so they weren't particularly backing the Dolphins off either. Didn't love the gameplan on Sunday. Felt like a coordinator who was coaching a bit scared of what his offensive line was going to look like. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Motorin' said:

 

You do realize that Allen's 2.4 second Pocket Time is tied for 3rd best in the league according to these stats? 

 

So rather than being given the 9th least of amount of time in the pocket by his OL, he's being given the 3rd most (along with several other qb's). 

 

*chuckle*

 

Correct - Allen's pocket time, which Pro Football Reference defines as "average time between snap and throwing the ball or collapse of the pocket" is listed as 10th, but tied for 6th (must be differences in the 2nd digit, not shown). 

 

That's being given a good amount of time to throw - though I'm uncertain as to how they define it - if Allen rolls out before the pocket collapses and buys himself an extra second, does that inflate this metric?  Just as Allen has the 2nd best sack % in the league, but that probably does not speak to OL quality because he's so good at escaping pressure and evading sacks.

 

Some things, like # of hits, absolutely do reflect how long the QB holds the ball.  When Big Ben Roeth was playing a quick passing game last season where he got the ball out before pressure got there, he had one of the lowest hit % in the league because the ball was gone long before the rushers got there. 

 

Unfortunately Pro-football-reference doesn't explain how a bunch of their stuff is calculated.  I suspect they get their stats from somewhere else who might define more fully but they don't say where.  I'd like to understand how they define hurries, for example.  If Allen has to throw perhaps before he wants to, but he's on his 3rd read and meanwhile he's got 2 guys open short whom he's not choosing, is that a hurry?

 

Stats usually mean something, but not always what one thinks they mean.

 

16 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Yea I am more of a burn the blitz guy than a throw screens guy. Especially when last season Josh was a beast at burning the blitz and as a rule we have not been a great screen team. I just thought we got them too early and too often. Not suggesting they don't have a place but my preference would be to set up shot hot routes for our receivers in the areas the blitzing defenders are leaving unguarded. Screens still need good blocking outside and we haven't shown we are great at executing in those situations. There were a coupe of nicely timed and well called screens - the one to Moss early on the drive at the end of the second quarter was very well timed I just thought we went overboard with them. My whole thing was they were not particularly helping us sustain drives and so they weren't particularly backing the Dolphins off either. Didn't love the gameplan on Sunday. Felt like a coordinator who was coaching a bit scared of what his offensive line was going to look like. 

 

That latter could be.  And they did look kind of sketchy at first, but they seemed to make adjustments and settle in, in the 2nd half.

[Doc Brown]

32 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

actually you might be correct on that.  Ill look again tomorrow I think the column was reversed when I looked.  Doesnt change anything else though.

It weakens your argument that the Bills have a below average o-line when it comes to pass protection.  I thought in the 2nd half the line did a pretty good job in pass protection allowing him to hit Beasley on some key 3rd down conversions.

[eball]

7 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

Let me repost those stats for you so you can try and tell people the O line is average.  This is all passing stats so it wont even include how bad they are at run blocking

 

Blitzed 23rd lowest %

Allen pressured 25.3% of his passing attempts 9th worst

Allen hurried 6th most

Allen hit 5th most

Pocket time until collapsed 2.4 seconds 7th worst

 

Anybody care to explain to me how the o line is just fine, average, not terrible or whatever?  Please don't give me your eye test garbage.

 

I believe the point of Kubiak’s analysis, and Hap’s posts, is that Josh himself contributes significantly to those statistics by being stubborn and waiting for big plays to develop rather than getting the ball out of his hands to open receivers quickly.  I don’t have the numbers in front of me but I believe Josh’s time from snap to release is likely among the longest in the league, which backs up that assertion.

 

Edit:  Whoops, sorry @Motorin' — I see you brought this up above!  Great minds…

 

 

 

Edited November 3, 2021 by eball

[maryland-bills-fan]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I am more of a burn the blitz guy than a throw screens guy. Especially when last season Josh was a beast at burning the blitz and as a rule we have not been a great screen team. I just thought we got them too early and too often. Not suggesting they don't have a place but my preference would be to set up shot hot routes for our receivers in the areas the blitzing defenders are leaving unguarded. Screens still need good blocking outside and we haven't shown we are great at executing in those situations. There were a coupe of nicely timed and well called screens - the one to Moss early on the drive at the end of the second quarter was very well timed I just thought we went overboard with them. My whole thing was they were not particularly helping us sustain drives and so they weren't particularly backing the Dolphins off either. Didn't love the gameplan on Sunday. Felt like a coordinator who was coaching a bit scared of what his offensive line was going to look like. 

I agree, BUT.    The "BUT" is that we were playing a team that is poor and that we had a very very high chance of beating even with a "c" or"d" game. NOW the rest of the league sees that we WILL throw a screen pass and they can not completely ignore the screen pass.

[Motorin']

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

*chuckle*

 

Correct - Allen's pocket time, which Pro Football Reference defines as "average time between snap and throwing the ball or collapse of the pocket" is listed as 10th, but tied for 6th (must be differences in the 2nd digit, not shown). 

 

That's being given a good amount of time to throw - though I'm uncertain as to how they define it - if Allen rolls out before the pocket collapses and buys himself an extra second, does that inflate this metric?  Just as Allen has the 2nd best sack % in the league, but that probably does not speak to OL quality because he's so good at escaping pressure and evading sacks.

 

Some things, like # of hits, absolutely do reflect how long the QB holds the ball.  When Big Ben Roeth was playing a quick passing game last season where he got the ball out before pressure got there, he had one of the lowest hit % in the league because the ball was gone long before the rushers got there. 

 

Unfortunately Pro-football-reference doesn't explain how a bunch of their stuff is calculated.  I suspect they get their stats from somewhere else who might define more fully but they don't say where.  I'd like to understand how they define hurries, for example.  If Allen has to throw perhaps before he wants to, but he's on his 3rd read and meanwhile he's got 2 guys open short whom he's not choosing, is that a hurry?

 

Stats usually mean something, but not always what one thinks they mean.

 

 

That latter could be.  And they did look kind of sketchy at first, but they seemed to make adjustments and settle in, in the 2nd half.

 

We also really need to look at the total amount of time the QB holds onto the ball before throwing. I'm going to guess that Allen is near the top in the league of total amount of time to throw. But it would help to see those numbers. 

 

 

[Royale with Cheese]

12 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think you're missing the point, but I doubt anything I could say would penetrate your mental armor and suffice to explain it.