Offensive Slump: Josh Allen vs Brian Daboll

[elijah]

I know the offense/Allen/Daboll/the OL is already being talked about ad nauseam around the forum, so I understand if the mods see a need to merge this with something else/lock it. However, with some videos and being specific to Allen vs the play calling I think this could warrant a thread. 

 

 

 

At first, my big complaint with Josh so far this year was that he looked indecisive, out of rhythm and unconfident in his game. 

 

Watching these videos that all seems explainable. Daboll looks to be forcing deep routes with 2-3 players attacking downfield on most of his plays. This comes against Pittsburgh, a great bonafide defense, and Miami, at bare minimum a great secondary. Those teams were able to not only plan for this and cover those routes, but also had the player personnel to do so effectively. 

 

With the All-22 film here you see that Allen is often looking through 2-3 reads downfield, all covered, before making a decision. Explains the indecisive look to him that we get to see on the live broadcast version, no? 

 

I’m on the train of holding Allen accountable, you don’t pay a guy $250M+ and then just shrug off 2 back-to-back weeks like he just had, especially when he’s only had 1 elite level year. Now I don’t think this is the demise of Josh, but it’s clear he’s not playing at the level of last year. On top of whatever you may be able to blame with the play calling here, he’s still been erratic with his accuracy and doesn’t look as sure in the pocket as we saw all last year and needs to rebound from that. 

 

However, what I see between these two threads/videos is that the offensive problems look mostly fixable by just scheming a little different/playing easier defenses. Daboll scheming to take some shorter routes for a couple weeks until Allen gets in more of a rhythm and the defenses start to play more underneath, and then this deep crossing attack scheme should open back up.

 

Again, mods lock/merge if necessary and my apologies ahead of time if this doesn’t warrant its own thread, but I thought it might be interesting to hear what people think specifically of Allen vs the gameplan without anything else involved in the conversation. 

[Thurman#1]

It's a bit weird to call a team that scored 35 points in a "slump."  685 yards over two games against PIttsburgh and Miami.

 

It really is. Perhaps, "not hitting on all cylinders." Or "not playing at peak efficiency." Something along those lines.

 

Again, these are two terrific defenses we played, and they're doing their best to take away chunk plays. We're still putting up a few, and moving the ball.

 

They can do better. They could get more efficient and smoother. But it was easier last year, as teams didn't have video. This year opponents've spent the offseason poring over it. If they can get the passing game going as consistently as they probably can, they can force teams to play up further. I suspect at that point the chunk plays will start to happen more consistently again in the passing game.

 

 

 

Edited September 22, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Steel City Mafia]

Game 2 was really just Allen missing open receivers. Really poor footwork 

[msw2112]

Slump might not be the best descriptor, but the Bills' passing game is clearly not playing at the same level that it did last season.  As suggested above, perhaps some different play calling may get the passing game back into a rhythm.

[Punching Bag]

One of the WRs needs to call John Brown and ask him to stop sticking pins in voodoo doll of Josh Allen.

[Augie]

15 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

It's a bit weird to call a team that scored 35 points in a "slump."

 

I stopped watching Warner about half way thru. I get what he’s saying, and we all know Josh isn’t at his best yet. BUT, he complained about two straight 10-15 yards completions for first downs. I actually like that he’s taking first downs over a Lotto ticket going long every time. We are not the greatest show on turf, we are an offense that moves the ball and scores points. Yes, he’s definitely got stuff to clean up, but I just felt like Warner was looking to nit pick because it was the thing to do. Let’s all hope Josh gets him to change his tune starting Sunday. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Only with Bills fans do we score 35 points on offense including 2 passing TDS and have fans agonizing about “offensive slump”

[TBBills]

Offensive slump? Is this a joke?

[PolishDave]

3 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

I stopped watching Warner about half way thru. I get what he’s saying, and we all know Josh isn’t at his best yet. BUT, he complained about two straight 10-15 yards completions for first downs. I actually like that he’s taking first downs over a Lotto ticket going long every time. We are not the greatest show on turf, we are an offense that moves the ball and scores points. Yes, he’s definitely got stuff to clean up, but I just felt like Warner was looking to nit pick because it was the thing to do. Let’s all hope Josh gets him to change his tune starting Sunday. 

 

It is also worth noting that Warner cherry picked a handful of passing plays where the pass rush wasn't a total jail break.   That is kind of like taking these plays a bit out of context.     I don't recall Warner explaining how a heavy pass rush early and often in a game will often times make a quarterback weary of it the rest of the game and affect his decision making thereafter.    It would be interesting to go back and look at film of Warner as a quarterback in games where he faced an intense pass rush up the middle with the opponent only rushing 4.   Then ask him about those games and why he wasn't as good as normal.

[ILBillsfan]

8 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

I stopped watching Warner about half way thru. I get what he’s saying, and we all know Josh isn’t at his best yet. BUT, he complained about two straight 10-15 yards completions for first downs. I actually like that he’s taking first downs over a Lotto ticket going long every time. We are not the greatest show on turf, we are an offense that moves the ball and scores points. Yes, he’s definitely got stuff to clean up, but I just felt like Warner was looking to nit pick because it was the thing to do. Let’s all hope Josh gets him to change his tune starting Sunday. 

I disagree Warner even says that he is good with the throw that Josh took but is also showing that based on  the safeties he has the deeper option as well.  I came out basically feeling what I am seeing he is not pulling the trigger as fast as he needs to be this year and doubting a bit of what he is seeing

[Warcodered]

If nothing else I hope they do better so I can stop hearing about this.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

31 minutes ago, Steel City Mafia said:

Game 2 was really just Allen missing open receivers. Really poor footwork 

Having rewatched every pass from Game 2, I think that’s pretty much mistaken.  
 

Allen missed 3 throws where  he had enough time and an open receiver.

 

He made a handful, maybe 4, dangerous throws he shouldn’t have made being hit or pressured as he threw and showing bad technique

[billybrew1]

6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Only with Bills fans do we score 35 points on offense including 2 passing TDS and have fans agonizing about “offensive slump”

Bologna!  You'd have to be blind not to see Josh's struggles and it is the  very definition of a fan to discuss how their team is doing.

Allen is slumping, fans are concerned and talking about it, get real.

 

I do think Allen will work his way through this...We might have to be patient. IDK?

 

Go Bills!

[elijah]

37 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

It's a bit weird to call a team that scored 35 points in a "slump."  685 yards over two games against PIttsburgh and Miami.

 

It really is. Perhaps, "not hitting on all cylinders." Or "not playing at peak efficiency." Something along those lines.

 

Again, these are two terrific defenses we played, and they're doing their best to take away chunk plays. We're still putting up a few, and moving the ball.

 

They can do better. They could get more efficient and smoother. But it was easier last year, as teams didn't have video. This year opponents've spent the offseason poring over it. If they can get the passing game going as consistently as they probably can, they can force teams to play up further. I suspect at that point the chunk plays will start to happen more consistently again in the passing game.

 

 

 

“It’s a bit weird to call a team that scored 35 points in a ‘slump.’”

 

Then goes on to describe, what is in fact, a slump. 

 

Why are fans going crazy about other fans pointing out areas for improvement and saying that we’re not at our best? 

 

The offense is flat out in a slump, simple as that. Are those of us saying this claiming that the team is doomed? Absolutely not, it’s a 17 game season and hopefully a 20 game season. 

 

We’re a Super Bowl contender, it’s okay for fans to act accordingly. It’s okay to be critical. 

 

The offense we’ve seen the first two weeks does not win a Super Bowl. The offense we’ve seen the first two weeks is not nearly as good as the offense we saw last year. They are in a ‘slump.’ So, naturally fans are going to talk about how the play has dipped, and observe and converse about what may be causing it and how we think it can be fixed in order to make that long journey to the Super Bowl.

[PolishDave]

5 minutes ago, billybrew1 said:

Bologna!  You'd have to be blind not to see Josh's struggles and it is the  very definition of a fan to discuss how their team is doing.

Allen is slumping, fans are concerned and talking about it, get real.

 

I do think Allen will work his way through this...We might have to be patient. IDK?

 

Go Bills!

 

3 minutes ago, elijah said:

“It’s a bit weird to call a team that scored 35 points in a ‘slump.’”

 

Then goes on to describe, what is in fact, a slump. 

 

Why are fans going crazy about other fans pointing out areas for improvement and saying that we’re not at our best? 

 

The offense is flat out in a slump, simple as that. Are those of us saying this claiming that the team is doomed? Absolutely not, it’s a 17 game season and hopefully a 20 game season. 

 

We’re a Super Bowl contender, it’s okay for fans to act accordingly. It’s okay to be critical. 

 

The offense we’ve seen the first two weeks does not win a Super Bowl. The offense we’ve seen the first two weeks is not nearly as good as the offense we saw last year. They are in a ‘slump.’ So, naturally fans are going to talk about how the play has dipped, and observe and converse about what may be causing it and how we think it can be fixed in order to make that long journey to the Super Bowl.

 

If this is what an offensive slump looks like, I suppose I could find at least a handful of teams in the NFL who would love to be in the same offensive SLUMP that Buffalo is in.

 

You may lump in the entire last season for the Bills and then call these two games a slump.    But since when do games from last season count for this season?

 

The bar was set for the offense in the fist game against Pittsburgh.   I think the Bills played better on offense in game 2 against the Dolphins.   So if they were in a slump, it appears they are already heading out of it.   

 

If you are going to set the bar at the level of always performing near record breaking levels, then you are setting yourself up to be miserable and in a perpetual slump.

 

Think about it this way.   You could say the Patriots were in a slump every single year except their best year when they lost the Superbowl to the Giants to ruin their undefeated season.   That appeared to be their best year.   They won a bunch of Superbowls.   But all those Superbowls would have to be considered their SLUMP years because they didn't perform at the same level as the year they almost went undefeated.

[elijah]

23 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Only with Bills fans do we score 35 points on offense including 2 passing TDS and have fans agonizing about “offensive slump”

 

21 minutes ago, TBBills said:

Offensive slump? Is this a joke?

 

2020 OFFENSIVE STATS

PPG: 31.3, 2nd in NFL

YPP: 6.1, 6th in NFL

YPG: 396.4, 2nd in NFL

PYG: 288.7, 3rd in NFL

1stD/GM: 24.8, T-1st in NFL

SC%: 49.4%, 2nd in NFL

 

2021 OFFENSIVE STATS

PPG: 25.5, 12th in NFL

YPP: 4.8, 27th in NFL

YPG: 342.5, 21st in NFL

PYG: 212.5, 26th in NFL

1stD/GM: 10.5, 25th in NFL

SC%: 37.5%, 19th in NFL

 

Yes, we won 35-0. Yes, the Bills are in an offensive slump, and that’s completely okay to admit and talk about fixing. Both can be true at the same time. We won 35-0 largely because of the defense. It wasn’t a complete game at all. 

 

No one’s saying the world is ending, we’re simply discussing what might be the cause of it and how we hopefully WILL overcome by fixing that cause. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 hour ago, elijah said:

I know the offense/Allen/Daboll/the OL is already being talked about ad nauseam around the forum, so I understand if the mods see a need to merge this with something else/lock it. However, with some videos and being specific to Allen vs the play calling I think this could warrant a thread. 

 

 

 

At first, my big complaint with Josh so far this year was that he looked indecisive, out of rhythm and unconfident in his game. 

 

Watching these videos that all seems explainable. Daboll looks to be forcing deep routes with 2-3 players attacking downfield on most of his plays. This comes against Pittsburgh, a great bonafide defense, and Miami, at bare minimum a great secondary. Those teams were able to not only plan for this and cover those routes, but also had the player personnel to do so effectively. 

 

With the All-22 film here you see that Allen is often looking through 2-3 reads downfield, all covered, before making a decision. Explains the indecisive look to him that we get to see on the live broadcast version, no? 

 

I’m on the train of holding Allen accountable, you don’t pay a guy $250M+ and then just shrug off 2 back-to-back weeks like he just had, especially when he’s only had 1 elite level year. Now I don’t think this is the demise of Josh, but it’s clear he’s not playing at the level of last year. On top of whatever you may be able to blame with the play calling here, he’s still been erratic with his accuracy and doesn’t look as sure in the pocket as we saw all last year and needs to rebound from that. 

 

However, what I see between these two threads/videos is that the offensive problems look mostly fixable by just scheming a little different/playing easier defenses. Daboll scheming to take some shorter routes for a couple weeks until Allen gets in more of a rhythm and the defenses start to play more underneath, and then this deep crossing attack scheme should open back up.

 

Again, mods lock/merge if necessary and my apologies ahead of time if this doesn’t warrant its own thread, but I thought it might be interesting to hear what people think specifically of Allen vs the gameplan without anything else involved in the conversation. 

 

Essentially make some quick gainers to knox and singletary who are in single coverage with LBs.  Or create a rush lane to get free yards scrambling.  

 

If they want to play 2 high safeties in 2 man, make them stop.  Mahomes and Wilson do this constantly and get those 10-15 yard easy first downs trotting out of bounds.  Force them to spy, or adjust - and hit them when they do.

[first_and_ten]

I feel the offense can be fixed. What I most worry about is Josh Allen's confidence. He has to be confident despite a poor performance versus Pittsburg and a less that stellar performance against Miami. If he loses confidence, then the Bills could be in for trouble. I thought that I saw a drop in his confidence in the post game interviews. I hope I am wrong. Did anyone else see this?

[since79]

I would like to throw another wrinkle into this discussion.  It has been said that, Dabol installed a new game plan on Saturday. That may have had an impact on the timing of plays and the execution.  I would like to use this analogy and I don't know how many hours per day they spend on the field and in meeting rooms.  For the sake of the discussion lets put it at 5.  If you were taking geometry, the teacher spent 20hrs teaching you a certain way to do the algorithm.  You then have a one hour review class before the big test.  The teacher walks in and says forget everything I taught you, I want you to use this algorithm.   Some students could handle this no problem, some in the room will fail.  The problem is the failing students have a direct impact on everyone's score.  The best students needs the failing one to pass, to be at their best.  Do you think after our struggles in week one, it was a good idea to teach for a week then change everything just before the test. Probably not.   

 

These guys are professional and should handle the changes. It may be easier to do this later in the season when everyone is firing together. Smaller adjustments may be handle more easily but a game plan revision might be too much to chew off now..

 

Dabol is the teacher where it come easy for him.  The one who thinks he can teach anyone everything.  Because it come so easy for him, they have a hard time understanding others may not pick it up easily. 

Edited September 22, 2021 by since79

[TheyCallMeAndy]

54 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Only with Bills fans do we score 35 points on offense including 2 passing TDS and have fans agonizing about “offensive slump”

 

52 minutes ago, TBBills said:

Offensive slump? Is this a joke?

The OP is clearly referring to the ineffectiveness of the passing offense.

 

Will it correct itself? Probably, but it’s a fair talking point after a summer full of hype and praise.

Edited September 22, 2021 by TheyCallMeAndy

[Hapless Bills Fan]

19 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

 

The OP is clearly referring to the ineffectiveness of the passing offense.

 

Then the OP would be well advised to say so: “passing offense slump” would probably draw broad agreement.

 

In game 1 where we didn’t pack an effective run game, the two would be the same.  
 

In game 2 where we did and a short pass game to boot, it’s not an apt descriptive

 

19 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

 

Will it correct itself? Probably, but it’s a fair talking point after a summer full of hype and praise.

It’s unlikely to correct itself.  However, bringing a sincere rush threat and short passing game will correct it in time, along with Allen working on the handful of throws he missed and the OL continuing a “get well” campaign

[DrDawkinstein]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Having rewatched every pass from Game 2, I think that’s pretty much mistaken.  
 

Allen missed 3 throws where  he had enough time and an open receiver.

 

He made a handful, maybe 4, dangerous throws he shouldn’t have made being hit or pressured as he threw and showing bad technique

 

7 bad passes doesnt sound like much, until you see his stat line of 17/33 for 179yds. (I wont

 

7 bad passes is over 20% of all attempts.

 

It's one thing to do it against a crappy Miami team where we can make up for it on the ground and rely on our Defense. But that won't hold up against the other top teams in the league.

 

Josh is in a slump. There is no denying it. His mechanics and footwork have regressed for seemingly no reason (he isnt under any more pressure this year than he was last year). He is not seeing open guys, or back to locking into his primary target before the snap even happens.

 

I fully believe he will play his way out of it and get it right. And probably pretty soon. But it is a real thing, and worth discussing. Even if we did win the last game 35-0.

[In Summary]

I expect a McDermott/Frazier defense to perennially be good enough to win several games a year.  Having the intermediate/long passing game as our primary team identity isn't that important to me on a weekly basis. 

[Gunner]

4 hours ago, TBBills said:

Offensive slump? Is this a joke?

I guess because he threw for less than 200 yards.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

7 bad passes doesnt sound like much, until you see his stat line of 17/33 for 179yds. (I wont

 

7 bad passes is over 20% of all attempts.

 

It's one thing to do it against a crappy Miami team where we can make up for it on the ground and rely on our Defense. But that won't hold up against the other top teams in the league.

 

Josh is in a slump. There is no denying it. His mechanics and footwork have regressed for seemingly no reason (he isnt under any more pressure this year than he was last year). He is not seeing open guys, or back to locking into his primary target before the snap even happens.

 

I fully believe he will play his way out of it and get it right. And probably pretty soon. But it is a real thing, and worth discussing. Even if we did win the last game 35-0.

Im not arguing that Allen doesn’t need to improve or the pass game doesn’t need to improve.  
 

My point is when the offense hangs up 35 points it’s strange talking’ “slump”.  Give me a slump like that most weeks!
 

let’s look at it a different way.  The bad decisions/pick need to go.  Keep those up, better offenses will exploit them.  But obviously, >70% completions would be a strong game. It’s not missing 20% of the attempts per se that poses such a problem.
 

I think people are going nuts over a handful of missed passes and psychoanalyzing Josh’s fingernails because there weren’t enough other opportunities to make up for it.

 

I’d love all 22 to get the full picture, but lacking that, I would say it’s on the OLand the passing play design vs that D as well, not all on Josh.  Sanders not clicking on all cylinders with Josh also plays a role

[hondo in seattle]

In the Steeler game, we saw DBs knocking Bills receivers off their routes.  We also saw Steeler DBs anticipating routes rather than simply following/covering the Bills receiver.  They seemed to know our playbook almost as well as we did.  

When I first watched the game live, I was giving all the blame  to Josh and the offensive line.  But the more replays I watched, the more blame I assigned to Daboll.  

[boater]

35 points. And it wasn't the rushing game. Can't we have nice things?

[3rdand12]

5 hours ago, ILBillsfan said:

I disagree Warner even says that he is good with the throw that Josh took but is also showing that based on  the safeties he has the deeper option as well.  I came out basically feeling what I am seeing he is not pulling the trigger as fast as he needs to be this year and doubting a bit of what he is seeing

after what Pittsburgh did to him? It carried over to Miami i might guess. It will come.
slow start for Offense as compared to slump prhaps ?

[Draconator]

27 minutes ago, boater said:

35 points. And it wasn't the rushing game. Can't we have nice things?

 

[Don Otreply]

 Dabol needs to stop forcing plays that are not working for long-ish stretches of games, iirc he said as much himself in a post game presser. I like aggressive play calling that pushes the ball down field as much as the next guy, but sometimes it is as if Dabol can’t read the defense his offense is playing, and make the spot adjustments needed,  I’m just an arm chair guy, is it just me, or is Dabol at times so fixated / inflexible on his game plan that he can’t see the forest through the trees so to speak? Yeah, I know things will improve, over time, but there is only 17 times during the regular season…, 😁👍

 

Go Bills!!!

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

3 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

 Dabol needs to stop forcing plays that are not working for long-ish stretches of games, iirc he said as much himself in a post game presser. I like aggressive play calling that pushes the ball down field as much as the next guy, but sometimes it is as if Dabol can’t read the defense his offense is playing, and make the spot adjustments needed,  I’m just an arm chair guy, is it just me, or is Dabol at times so fixated / inflexible on his game plan that he can’t see the forest through the trees so to speak? Yeah, I know things will improve, over time, but there is only 17 times during the regular season…, 😁👍

 

Go Bills!!!

Coaches are so freaking stubborn...I love when they talk about belichick tailoring game plans to the individual opponent as some earth shattering concept during the broadcast lol most coaches just try to force what they like to do down the other teams throat.  I think he took the hint finally half time at the Miami game that going through progressions with 3 deep routes when your offensive line is struggling probably isn't the best way to go lol

[Marv's Neighbor]

10 hours ago, msw2112 said:

Slump might not be the best descriptor, but the Bills' passing game is clearly not playing at the same level that it did last season.  As suggested above, perhaps some different play calling may get the passing game back into a rhythm.

Or we could start a QB controversy and play Ski for a half.  See if he's worth $1 mil.