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TSW Poll Mock Draft 2.0 - Who should the Bills take at #30 (Based off Mock 2.0 Results.


Virgil

Who should the Bills take at #30 (Based off TSW 2.0 Mock Results)  

174 members have voted

  1. 1. Who should the Bills take at #30

    • Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
      41
    • Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa
      33
    • Joseph Ossai Edge, Texas
      48

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  • Poll closed on 04/14/2021 at 04:02 PM

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3 hours ago, Virgil said:

 

Yeah, if these are the options, I hope they either trade back or up.  Not a big fan of the value here

I know the answer, but has Beane ever traded back?

2 hours ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Still missing Asante Samuel or did he get picked?

We have met with him twice and his ol man played for Sean, everyone should become a bit more comfy with him as a possiblity (not implying at 30 though)

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15 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

I also think this guy is high on our DB lost
 

 

 

I think this may be our pick at 30, Asante is the choice in RD2 if Melifonwu is gone



I like the player, but at 30?...not so fast:
 

 

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29 minutes ago, Logic said:



I like the player, but at 30?...not so fast:
 

 

A few things:

1.) Beane targets athleticism and size (intangibles), especially in RD1. He is an elite athlete with his size and mobility https://relativeathleticscores.com/ras-information/?PlayerID=19410

2.) Beane does not draft older players, he is 21

3.) Beane drafts underclassman, he is a Jr (we have only drafted 1 Sr)

4.) Beane likes physical players

5.) The top 3 CBs will be off the board and we are drafting at the end of RD1, which is basically an early 2nd round player. Unless we move up in RD1, the player we pick here will need a little time to grow and develop. Which leads me to my last thought:

6.) I think he could start off as a big nickel guy, he has the size and physicality, as he transitions to CB#2. He needs to get better with his anticipation and spacing as everyone has already mentioned, but that can easily be coached up. He is already great at looking into the back field, tackling runners, etc. 

 

Just kind of where I'm at right now.

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48 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

A few things:

1.) Beane targets athleticism and size (intangibles), especially in RD1. He is an elite athlete with his size and mobility https://relativeathleticscores.com/ras-information/?PlayerID=19410

2.) Beane does not draft older players, he is 21

3.) Beane drafts underclassman, he is a Jr (we have only drafted 1 Sr)

4.) Beane likes physical players

5.) The top 3 CBs will be off the board and we are drafting at the end of RD1, which is basically an early 2nd round player. Unless we move up in RD1, the player we pick here will need a little time to grow and develop. Which leads me to my last thought:

6.) I think he could start off as a big nickel guy, he has the size and physicality, as he transitions to CB#2. He needs to get better with his anticipation and spacing as everyone has already mentioned, but that can easily be coached up. He is already great at looking into the back field, tackling runners, etc. 

 

Just kind of where I'm at right now.


Im actually with you on all those points.


I was mostly just pointing out that, according to Bukowski, he can’t seem to find any teams with even a 2nd round grade on Melifonwu, let alone a 1st.

 

Thought that was pretty interesting and surprising.

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50 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

A few things:

1.) Beane targets athleticism and size (intangibles), especially in RD1. He is an elite athlete with his size and mobility https://relativeathleticscores.com/ras-information/?PlayerID=19410

2.) Beane does not draft older players, he is 21

3.) Beane drafts underclassman, he is a Jr (we have only drafted 1 Sr)

4.) Beane likes physical players

5.) The top 3 CBs will be off the board and we are drafting at the end of RD1, which is basically an early 2nd round player. Unless we move up in RD1, the player we pick here will need a little time to grow and develop. Which leads me to my last thought:

6.) I think he could start off as a big nickel guy, he has the size and physicality, as he transitions to CB#2. He needs to get better with his anticipation and spacing as everyone has already mentioned, but that can easily be coached up. He is already great at looking into the back field, tackling runners, etc. 

 

Just kind of where I'm at right now.

 

Trade back and draft him in the second!

Just now, Logic said:


Im actually with you on all those points.


I was mostly just pointing out that, according to Bukowski, he can’t seem to find any teams with even a 2nd round grade on Melifonwu, let alone a 1st.

 

Thought that was pretty interesting and surprising.

 

Hard to put much stock in this kind of things these days. 

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11 minutes ago, Logic said:


Im actually with you on all those points.


I was mostly just pointing out that, according to Bukowski, he can’t seem to find any teams with even a 2nd round grade on Melifonwu, let alone a 1st.

 

Thought that was pretty interesting and surprising.

@Astrobot has him on 2 of his latest mocks.

 

Every year there are players who mocks had low that go way higher and those mocked high that fall. Mocks aren't that accurate overall anyways. I could be totally wrong and I may be pigeon holing players to us, by what Beane has looked for in the past, but he fits parts of it and it is a need for us. I'm certainly not saying we will take him, but his profile checks a lot of boxes and who we take will be dependent on who falls and if we decide to stay put or move up. Late RD1 picks are just so much different than picks 5-18. I like the depth at CB after the top 3 much more than the Edge and would rate them higher. RB is a wildcard though. I honestly have no idea what we will do, but hell I would take Etienne and move up in RD2 for the CB

11 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

 

Trade back and draft him in the second!

 

Hard to put much stock in this kind of things these days. 

Beane has never traded back and I don't see him doing it now. He is either going up or staying put. To go up it is going to have to be a top tier guy who slid into a palatable spot to trade up (only picks from this draft and I don't see us giving up a RD2 this year, the rest are fair game).

 

Not trying to be a turd...just some thoughts

 

I don't put much stock in what is being said about players right now...

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9 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

@Astrobot has him on 2 of his latest mocks.

 

Every year there are players who mocks had low that go way higher and those mocked high that fall. Mocks aren't that accurate overall anyways. I could be totally wrong and I may be pigeon holing players to us, by what Beane has looked for in the past, but he fits parts of it and it is a need for us. I'm certainly not saying we will take him, but his profile checks a lot of boxes and who we take will be dependent on who falls and if we decide to stay put or move up. Late RD1 picks are just so much different than picks 5-18. I like the depth at CB after the top 3 much more than the Edge and would rate them higher. RB is a wildcard though. I honestly have no idea what we will do, but hell I would take Etienne and move up in RD2 for the CB

Beane has never traded back and I don't see him doing it now. He is either going up or staying put. To go up it is going to have to be a top tier guy who slid into a palatable spot to trade up (only picks from this draft and I don't see us giving up a RD2 this year, the rest are fair game).

 

Not trying to be a turd...just some thoughts

 

I don't put much stock in what is being said about players right now...

 

I think one of the top tier guys will fall past 20 and Beane will gladly give up a 3rd to trade up to get him.  I just have no idea who that will be

 

 

I've narrowed the selection to the top 5

Edited by Virgil
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3 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

I think one of the top tier guys will fall past 20 and Beane will gladly give up a 3rd to trade up to get him.  I just have no idea who that will be

OT even makes sense, but I don't see us investing in that position in RD1 this year. RB is even a stretch since that really isn't a Beane type thing, how many more touches will the RB get and what will that impact be? I really see this as a defense heavy draft.

 

When you look at how TB defended KC with a lot of DBs and us letting Marlowe walk, I feel like DB is very very high on our list and we aren't sniffing the top 3. Edge isn't that great this year either. So I find myself zeroing in at CB more and more

 

 

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Just because Beane hasn’t trade down doesn’t mean that he never will..... he hasn’t been the GM very long. I don’t think his chess moves are set in stone after 3 drafts 

What does trading down do for us? Give us more picks? How many drafted players will really make the team this year?

 

While I do agree with your overall thought, nothing is locked in stone, Beane will either go get who he is targeting (if he can) or take a player at that pick. Trading out of RD1 does not give you the 5th year option, which is something a lot of team really desire...

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1 hour ago, Reed83HOF said:

OT even makes sense, but I don't see us investing in that position in RD1 this year. RB is even a stretch since that really isn't a Beane type thing, how many more touches will the RB get and what will that impact be? I really see this as a defense heavy draft.

 

When you look at how TB defended KC with a lot of DBs and us letting Marlowe walk, I feel like DB is very very high on our list and we aren't sniffing the top 3. Edge isn't that great this year either. So I find myself zeroing in at CB more and more

 

 

What does trading down do for us? Give us more picks? How many drafted players will really make the team this year?

 

While I do agree with your overall thought, nothing is locked in stone, Beane will either go get who he is targeting (if he can) or take a player at that pick. Trading out of RD1 does not give you the 5th year option, which is something a lot of team really desire...


We have plenty of long term holes. PLENTY.   Beyond 2021, who do we have at cb2, TE1, C, LG, RG, 1T, DE1, DE2, WR3

 

Is Morse a core player?

feliciano?

Ford?

Boettger?

Star?

Addison? 
Jerry?

Butler?

Phillips?

Bam?

Zimmer?

Levi?

Dane?

Knox?

Motor? 


 

Beane is thinking long term sustainability.  That’s obvious after watching this offseason.  He’s not going all in.  Josh hasn’t been paid and we’re up against the cap.  When you pay your QB 40M a year, a Gms best friends are is his draft picks that start and get paid 1M a year for 4 years.  That’s what we need going forward.  Maybe not in 2021 so much, but for the foundation of the teams future super bowl runs.  These picks are the most important.  I’d love to add an elite player..,.but which elite player are we going to trade up for and how many potential future starters are we going to trade for that player?  And is that “elite player” going to run into 17 or 49?  If we trade multiple picks for a guy that pans out like 49, we may very well screw this whole thing up

Edited by NewEra
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I get the thinking with drafting an explosive RB stud at 30 as long as you're convinced he'll be a significant upgrade.  You can then milk that player for all he's worth for five years with an average annual salary that makes him a bargain.  You have to then be willing to release him no matter what though.  I don't think Beane will do it but I wouldn't hate it if he did.

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1 hour ago, Reed83HOF said:

OT even makes sense, but I don't see us investing in that position in RD1 this year. RB is even a stretch since that really isn't a Beane type thing, how many more touches will the RB get and what will that impact be? I really see this as a defense heavy draft.

 

When you look at how TB defended KC with a lot of DBs and us letting Marlowe walk, I feel like DB is very very high on our list and we aren't sniffing the top 3. Edge isn't that great this year either. So I find myself zeroing in at CB more and more

 

 

What does trading down do for us? Give us more picks? How many drafted players will really make the team this year?

 

While I do agree with your overall thought, nothing is locked in stone, Beane will either go get who he is targeting (if he can) or take a player at that pick. Trading out of RD1 does not give you the 5th year option, which is something a lot of team really desire...

Maybe another pick in the top 100 and a chance to fill in the 93 to 161 gap that lacking a 4th round pick creates.  I can't see the Bills war room sitting on their collective butts and 67 players are taken while they watch without a chance to snag one of the guys they targeted.

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One bias that tends to exist in the mock drafts done in the TBD bubble is our members tend to take players that we have collectively liked/hoped for the Bills to draft.  One or more of the edge defenders or CBs off the board in this mock is likely to still be there at 30 when the real thing goes down, imo.

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11 hours ago, Virgil said:

Please vote for you think the Bills should select at #30 overall.  If there is a player you think should be considered that's not in the poll, please post in the responses.  As we get more votes, I will remove players who were far behind.  You can re-vote at any time

 

Based off this current mock draft:

 

Mr Harris at Bama has been my guy for months but I doubt he’s there so Id go with the Texas DE insane athlete with major upside 

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8 hours ago, NeverOutNick said:

Let me know when I should give up on Collins and move to Ossai...no way do I believe we go RB 


 

I already switched to Ossai - no way should we waste a 5th year option on RB.  Better Etienne than Harris, but only by a smidge.  Both would be wastes to me.

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I voted for the RB as its the thinnest position.

 

I am pretty sure that the DE listed is the monster athlete who didn't record a sack last year in 7 starts.

 

A first round tackle that doesn't start? you draft depth later.

 

I Don't know much about the LB I need to do some research

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@Reed83HOF- I think you’re falsely equating trading back with drafting more players. I don’t think that’s the case at all for where the bills are.

 

Trading back out of the first gives you flexibility in the 2-4 rounds to move up and around and get several players you like. If they don’t have anyone they love in round 1, you could flip that for a 2 and 4, or even 2 and 3 and then use your later picks to move around those rounds to get 4-6 top 150 picks that you see as solid depth and developmental pieces.

 

While I agree that you there isn’t much room on this roster for late round depth; I think the best idea is to leverage for mid-round talent to build depth and create competition while giving you options for the future.
 

I don’t know how likely that is, but I think it’s a viable route and I wouldn’t be shocked to see it. i also don’t think the “he’s never traded back” logic makes sense. We’re talking about 3 drafts that Beane has run. Hardly a huge sample size, and he’s never had a roster so stacked. The world is his oyster right now and he truly can let the draft come to him, so I’m not holding my breath about any option. 

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9 hours ago, NewEra said:


We have plenty of long term holes. PLENTY.   Beyond 2021, who do we have at cb2, TE1, C, LG, RG, 1T, DE1, DE2, WR3

 

Is Morse a core player?

feliciano?

Ford?

Boettger?

Star?

Addison? 
Jerry?

Butler?

Phillips?

Bam?

Zimmer?

Levi?

Dane?

Knox?

Motor? 


 

Beane is thinking long term sustainability.  That’s obvious after watching this offseason.  He’s not going all in.  Josh hasn’t been paid and we’re up against the cap.  When you pay your QB 40M a year, a Gms best friends are is his draft picks that start and get paid 1M a year for 4 years.  That’s what we need going forward.  Maybe not in 2021 so much, but for the foundation of the teams future super bowl runs.  These picks are the most important.  I’d love to add an elite player..,.but which elite player are we going to trade up for and how many potential future starters are we going to trade for that player?  And is that “elite player” going to run into 17 or 49?  If we trade multiple picks for a guy that pans out like 49, we may very well screw this whole thing up

 

You can say plenty of long term holes for every position, we have a lot of expiring contracts in the next 2 to 3 years, basically everyone except Tre, Milano, Dawkins, Poyer.

 

You are correct about long term sustainability and Beane wants to resign our own, he doesn't necessarily want big FA splashes either. 

 

When you look at our roster, it always comes down to a numbers game. How many guys can you carry going into camp, 90, how many make a roster 53 and how many on the practice squad, 6. So you have 59 real spots available and then you have the position groups and the numbers there. The draft class, has to be able to crack those positional groupings and be part of the top 59. Our roster is very deep, with the exception of 3 positions right now, Safety, CB and OL. We only have 4 safeties and we have been searching for a CB2 for what seems like an eternity. I would call these more immediate needs heading into this season, and being as of now a cap strapped team (we can make more space with restructures, but it would honestly have to be a special player IMO), we aren't making a big FA move after the draft.

 

We don't have a 4th this year, so I willbl start with the 2 rd5 picks, what are the chances those players make the top 59? What are the chances our 5th, 6th and 7th push one of those 59 out for a spot? Very low and unlikely, with the exception of CB depth and one position I will get to below.

 

Looking at next off-season, again, CB is a need with Levi, Taron, Phillips, Hughes and Addison as UFAs and Star may retire or not, but is certainly a year older, these positions could be prime for depth. 

 

When I look at the Safety and CB spots, Samuel Jr can handle playing outside and Melifonwu can also play Safety as well as grow in a CB2 role. I also think he could fill the big nickel role as well. I don't see us moving up that high in RD1, because the cost will require a RD2 or an RD3, which I see Beane wanting to keep. 

 

Edge doesn't excite me much this year, Paye would be someone I look at, but I don't see him dropping low enough for us to snag. Barmore if he falls would be a good choice and Phillips could move on. Phillips was benched after all last season (I know the injury, but still). Again, I'm not sure we trade a 2 or a 3 to snag him this year and the other picks have very little value for that move. I have to consider this because Beane is a wheeler and dealer in the draft moving to grab his targets.

 

We have a real hole at DT 1T, and I'm not sure I'm touching that until maybe rd3 and I would use those 5ths, 6ths and 7ths to make a move for a guy.

 

CB and Saftey are the 2 biggest holes and those players have the best spot of making the roster via the numbers game. Looking at a cap perspective, if we let Levi and Taron walk, the cost of replacements between an Rd1 and Rd2 player will keep the hits much lower for the next 5 and 4 years respectively than going to UFA route and should keep the overall positional cost close to neutral.

 

OL is a sneaky pick and I love the value that will he around there in late rd1 early 2, but I don't see the player making an immediate upgrade this year or next, which is why I have it lower on my list.

 

RB, I love Etienne, just would be a little surprised to see that pick by Beane there,  but he would be BPA by a mile IMO....

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8 hours ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

Maybe another pick in the top 100 and a chance to fill in the 93 to 161 gap that lacking a 4th round pick creates.  I can't see the Bills war room sitting on their collective butts and 67 players are taken while they watch without a chance to snag one of the guys they targeted.

We have 59 spots on the active roster and PS and a very deep roster, what players will the 2 5th rounders a 6th rounder and 7th rounder push for a spot?

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1 hour ago, JMF2006 said:

I voted for the RB as its the thinnest position.

 

I am pretty sure that the DE listed is the monster athlete who didn't record a sack last year in 7 starts.

 

A first round tackle that doesn't start? you draft depth later.

 

I Don't know much about the LB I need to do some research

You're thinking of Jayson Oweh, not Joseph Ossai. Ossai had 5.5 sacks this year and was 4th in the country in TFL.

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1 hour ago, whatdrought said:

@Reed83HOF- I think you’re falsely equating trading back with drafting more players. I don’t think that’s the case at all for where the bills are.

 

Trading back out of the first gives you flexibility in the 2-4 rounds to move up and around and get several players you like. If they don’t have anyone they love in round 1, you could flip that for a 2 and 4, or even 2 and 3 and then use your later picks to move around those rounds to get 4-6 top 150 picks that you see as solid depth and developmental pieces.

 

While I agree that you there isn’t much room on this roster for late round depth; I think the best idea is to leverage for mid-round talent to build depth and create competition while giving you options for the future.
 

I don’t know how likely that is, but I think it’s a viable route and I wouldn’t be shocked to see it. i also don’t think the “he’s never traded back” logic makes sense. We’re talking about 3 drafts that Beane has run. Hardly a huge sample size, and he’s never had a roster so stacked. The world is his oyster right now and he truly can let the draft come to him, so I’m not holding my breath about any option. 

 

These are good points and I can't argue against them as I agree with it to a degree. If you could slide into early rd2 and pick up a 3rd(and using our later picks to sweeten this pit) or 4th, it does make some sense.

 

Beane loves to talk about BPA and he follows it to a certain extent, but he knows what players he really likes and he will target them and go get them, he has done this every draft and his usual comment is that they were rated so high and sticking out like a sore them so we had to go get him. He is also the guy that would rather get his guy and then not have him available when the next pick comes up, if you like a player and he's there at your pick and the value in the board is there you take him. When your next pick comes around he may be gone.

 

IIRC, he has also made a comment saying that if you trade back, you might as well trade out of the entire round, granted this year it makes sense with only 2 picks till RD2.

 

The 5th year option though is something I tend to think he would prefer to have and having a player you like potentially be taken before this next pick, is not a risk I see him taking, unless there are multiple players available. When he traded up for Knox, he indicated that the TE run happened and they had to make a move before they were shut out. I don't see him wanting to trade back and have the run on CBS, for instance, happen before that pick.

 

 

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15 hours ago, Virgil said:

 

I really can't imagine them going WR, can you?  Diggs and Davis aren't going anywhere, even if Beasley leaves after next season, I can't imagine a #3/4 receiver with our 1st round pick

Makes far more sense than o-line.

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56 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

These are good points and I can't argue against them as I agree with it to a degree. If you could slide into early rd2 and pick up a 3rd(and using our later picks to sweeten this pit) or 4th, it does make some sense.

 

Beane loves to talk about BPA and he follows it to a certain extent, but he knows what players he really likes and he will target them and go get them, he has done this every draft and his usual comment is that they were rated so high and sticking out like a sore them so we had to go get him. He is also the guy that would rather get his guy and then not have him available when the next pick comes up, if you like a player and he's there at your pick and the value in the board is there you take him. When your next pick comes around he may be gone.

 

IIRC, he has also made a comment saying that if you trade back, you might as well trade out of the entire round, granted this year it makes sense with only 2 picks till RD2.

 

The 5th year option though is something I tend to think he would prefer to have and having a player you like potentially be taken before this next pick, is not a risk I see him taking, unless there are multiple players available. When he traded up for Knox, he indicated that the TE run happened and they had to make a move before they were shut out. I don't see him wanting to trade back and have the run on CBS, for instance, happen before that pick.

 

 

 

Yeah, It's a strange year because there is no right answer. Beane has a ton of flexibility, which I'm sure he loves, but makes our guessing games harder.

 

I like the fifth year option on a CB if there's one there you like... I just see a lot of simulations (including this one) where I'm not in love with anyone on the board and would rather have the day 2 flexibility. 

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16 hours ago, Virgil said:

 

I really can't imagine them going WR, can you?  Diggs and Davis aren't going anywhere, even if Beasley leaves after next season, I can't imagine a #3/4 receiver with our 1st round pick

 

I would be ecstatic with Kadarius Toney.  He immediately becomes our KR/PR and he looked phenomenal on the intermediate-range stuff Josh loves to throw.  Then add in his freakish ability on screens/short passes.

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16 hours ago, NewEra said:

Absolutely.  A 6’3 burner with great catch radius.  Was the #1 wr coming out of HS. Tremendous talent

 

and he’s the late great Joe Delaneys Nephew 

Eventual John Brown/Sanders replacement 

11 hours ago, NeverOutNick said:

Let me know when I should give up on Collins and move to Ossai...no way do I believe we go RB 

I’m craving for Zaven!

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26 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

 

Yeah, It's a strange year because there is no right answer. Beane has a ton of flexibility, which I'm sure he loves, but makes our guessing games harder.

 

I like the fifth year option on a CB if there's one there you like... I just see a lot of simulations (including this one) where I'm not in love with anyone on the board and would rather have the day 2 flexibility. 

I like drafting this late because it means the team is good, but I miss the blue chippers in the draft lol.

 

Someone in a thread brought up a good point, that this draft will be very different due to the lack of evaluations done last year.  Value should be all over the place this year. 

 

One thing we should take into account this year is that the FO connections to schools will be even more important. One of the reasons why I also think PSU and SU are schools to look at just due to the overall proximity.

 

The players I'm in love with we have no shot at and it's so darn hard to guess without seeing how the boards fall. Tre was a 27th pick 4 years ago, I tend to think we can find another around this range, but who the hell knows lol

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Honestly, if this 'Final Four' is there at 30 in the actual NFL draft, I hope that somebody is willing to come up for one of them at the cost of a slight trade back into the 2nd Round by the Bills. Pick up capital in the 2nd and/or 3rd Round this year to either add the flexibility to move around/target specific players of need this year or flip for future draft assets. We'll see if Beane sticks to his perceived m.o. of 'never trading back' or if that is a false narrative now that the Bills are an established contender.

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17 hours ago, NewEra said:

Absolutely.  A 6’3 burner with great catch radius.  Was the #1 wr coming out of HS. Tremendous talent

 

and he’s the late great Joe Delaneys Nephew 

 

Joe Delaney was a stud. Not too many people here remember him. It's sad how he passed. (BTW, his coach was none other than Marv Levy).

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2 minutes ago, chongli said:

 

Joe Delaney was a stud. Not too many people here remember him. It's sad how he passed. (BTW, his coach was none other than Marv Levy).

So sad.  One of the best I’ve seen

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5 minutes ago, chongli said:

Joe Delaney was a stud. Not too many people here remember him. It's sad how he passed. (BTW, his coach was none other than Marv Levy).

 

Way before my time but I just had a quick look. Seemed like a really decent guy who died trying to help others. Nice to see that they've put a monument to him at the site of his death, hopefully that helps to keep his memory alive in future generations.

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I voted for Zaven, helps our defense, and I just have a hunch that even if we pick up option year 5 for tremaine I cant imagine we would want to have that much money tied up into the lb position long term, so this would give us some time to groom. I see him as a fit like Lorax was for us

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4 minutes ago, Rock-A-Bye Beasley said:

Teven Jenkins is clear BPA. He just disappeared from the poll as I was about to vote for him. 
 

Could be played at guard to start then moved out to tackle down the line or due to injury. 
 

 


He wasn’t going to win in the last 30 min 

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