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Draft Sleepers 2021


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15 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

He’s definitely a DAWG!! How fast is he? 

Not a blazer but fast enough. 
 

Ran mid 4.4s at his pro day but looks like he plays more like a 4.6ish guy. 
 

Not always the case but I think it’s fair to suggest he might get a little faster with pro training and likely will be able to improve his route running with pro coaching. 

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What is the Board opinion on Matt Bushman - TE-BYU?

 

This is a an injury sleeper, that has me somewhat intrigued.   I do not watch significant college foot just read up draft prospects in March and April.

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1 hour ago, CNYfan said:

What is the Board opinion on Matt Bushman - TE-BYU?

 

This is a an injury sleeper, that has me somewhat intrigued.   I do not watch significant college foot just read up draft prospects in March and April.

I’ve read and watched next to nothing on him, so the following should be taken with a grain or more of salt...

 

He’s very likely a JAG. The logic being that this TE class is SO BAD that any option with any amount of potential would instantly stand out. Maybe a guy like that goes under the radar in a stacked class like this year’s WR class, but not when we’re talking about literally 5 viable guys (and I have reasonable doubts about 2 of those).

 

Time will tell, and I’m familiar with the injury situation, but probably not anyone I’d bet any meaningful amount of money on... 

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On 4/4/2021 at 11:57 AM, Blokestradamus said:

 

Brodarious Hamm should be in next year's class. I've already adopted him for my name team.

Dude should quit football, and open up a sub shop, featuring the Brodacious Ham Sammich...

 

Hey... It'll fly in New Jersey... 

Edited by ROCBillsBeliever
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4 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

He’s definitely a DAWG!! How fast is he? 

I believe he ran a 4.41ish.

 

his agility scores are similar to Orlando Brown. Not really but I think that’s why he will slip.  Would love to land Him in 6-7

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Good stuff.  Curious as to your comment about the Bills not paying Taron Johnson.  This kid made two of the biggest plays of the season last year and only seems to be getting better.  He looks like a great fit in McD’s defense.  Your thinking is he will be too expensive?

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1 hour ago, eball said:

Good stuff.  Curious as to your comment about the Bills not paying Taron Johnson.  This kid made two of the biggest plays of the season last year and only seems to be getting better.  He looks like a great fit in McD’s defense.  Your thinking is he will be too expensive?

 

My thinking is that they can't pay everyone and slot corner is a spot where you can find contributors for cheap on day 3 of the draft. Also Taron struggled greatly at the start of last season and was even benched at one point. He did play better down the stretch I am just not sold that they will see it as a sensible allocation of resources. 

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Great post, and as you can guess I was happy to see the defensive backs on the list. It is of course possible to draft a good db in later rounds! :) 

 

This closest I can come to a sleeper from Alabama would be TE Miller Forristall.

 

The guy looks like a movie actor but fights like a tiger on every play. He sneaks his way open consistently, but of course a case could be made that teams were busy covering the superstars on the Tide offense. 

Miller is a GREAT blocker on running and passing downs and can play on special teams. 

He has played through some injuries and is a very smart kid.

 

I would place him in the 6th or 7th round, if not a UDFA.

 

 

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2 hours ago, eball said:

Good stuff.  Curious as to your comment about the Bills not paying Taron Johnson.  This kid made two of the biggest plays of the season last year and only seems to be getting better.  He looks like a great fit in McD’s defense.  Your thinking is he will be too expensive?

Taron might have made the biggest play in franchise history 😲what play was bigger? Mike Stranton’s  hit? I was too young for that. Can you say one play in “the comeback “. Taron played well in the second half of the season. He’s going to be a big part of our success this year. 

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11 hours ago, glazeduck said:

I’ve read and watched next to nothing on him, so the following should be taken with a grain or more of salt...

 

He’s very likely a JAG. The logic being that this TE class is SO BAD that any option with any amount of potential would instantly stand out. Maybe a guy like that goes under the radar in a stacked class like this year’s WR class, but not when we’re talking about literally 5 viable guys (and I have reasonable doubts about 2 of those).

 

Time will tell, and I’m familiar with the injury situation, but probably not anyone I’d bet any meaningful amount of money on... 

 

 

Eliminating players from consideration using that methodology is bad practice.  

 

It actually works both ways........in some seasons where the class is considered strong at a position.......players actually get moved up higher than they should on the assumption that it's just a great class..................the rising tide raises all ships.

 

In years where it's assumed there is no talent.........sometimes players get written down because of the perception of the class as a whole.

 

George Kittle is the best in the game........he didn't slip to the 5th round because he was in a great TE class...........he slipped because he was mis-evaluated.

 

That can happen in a good class or a bad one.     

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2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Eliminating players from consideration using that methodology is bad practice.  

 

It actually works both ways........in some seasons where the class is considered strong at a position.......players actually get moved up higher than they should on the assumption that it's just a great class..................the rising tide raises all ships.

 

In years where it's assumed there is no talent.........sometimes players get written down because of the perception of the class as a whole.

 

George Kittle is the best in the game........he didn't slip to the 5th round because he was in a great TE class...........he slipped because he was mis-evaluated.

 

That can happen in a good class or a bad one.     

Agree to disagree on just about all of this...

 

The draft evaluation process is almost never a binary thing -- barring you and I or Thanos being in the draft, every player will be on some sort of evaluation spectrum for every front office. I didn't "eliminate" your guy, I simply said he was "probably a JAG" (also probably not the insult you're taking it as, more on that in a minute). That's not to say that Beane and his team have no idea who Bushman is or deleted his evaluation page without filling any of it out, simply that he's likely nothing special.

 

It's important to keep in mind that front offices are having to constantly track, evaluate, rank and do due diligence on more than 500 of the world's best athletes across 24 positions, use those evaluations to develop a strategy in concert with the coaching staff and then identify how to optimally execute. And all of that is happening first during the playoffs and then free agency and the offseason (where they're absolutely also keeping track of their own players, personnel taking time off, etc.) I'm exhausted just typing all of that out.

 

Simply put, there's too much going on for them to be completely dialed in with every prospect, all the time, so that kind of back-of-napkin math can be helpful. Teams monitor sites like The Draft Network every day to make sure there's not something that they missed because, 1) ESPN, TDN, etc. don't have to worry about the external stuff and can focus solely on evaluations and pumping out content, and 2) because that has now become big business. Anyone can write about how great so many of these WRs are -- and many of us on this site have for free. The big scores would come in finding that needle in the haystack. So my point on Bushman, is -- if there was substantial evidence that he could be some diamond in the rough -- it's a good bet that there would be a decent amount of content out there hypothesizing that, and beyond BYU fan sites, there's not a ton. Like it or don't, but that's more or less the process in a real front office, so I tried to answer your question as such. At the end of the day, EVERY draft pick is at least somewhat an educated guess, and teams use every resource possible to get as much education as possible, but that's also balanced with the need to triage their work, so guys like Bushman, who may or may not even get drafted will automatically get less attention in the evaluation process, than, say, a Pat Freirmuth. That's just the way it works. 

 

To your point on Kittle, he wasn't some unknown quantity, he just wasn't a special athlete or body going the draft process. That class was actually stocked with TE prospects: OJ Howard and David Njoku were two of the best athlete profiles in TE draft history; Evan Engram, Jordan Leggett and Jake Butt were studs in college, and Adam Sheehan had the basketball prototype that GMs are still overdrafting. Kittle wasn't some little known prospect, he was just pushed down by guys who -- at the time -- were better athletic prospects or appeared to be more well-rounded players. If I had to guess, I'd say that due to his smaller stature, most GMs thought the was maxed out as a Jordan Reed type and didn't anticipate him becoming a better athlete. Is some of that misevaluation? Maybe, but quite clearly he has become a better athlete since the 2017 draft, so you have to give the guy credit for his own development as well. But he was 100% an example of a talented guy getting pushed down in a good (or perceived to be good) class.  

 

Lastly, on the JAG thing -- a former player of his (forgetting who, I'll try to dig it up) recently joined a podcast to talk about how Sean McVey saw essentially 90-95% of his roster as JAGs -- like, literally replaceable on the daily type JAGs. His philosophy was that special players win and lose you games, and there are only a handful of special players on each team, so he wanted his personnel strategy to be focused on adding those special type players and filling in with JAGs (FWIW, the Rams' general strategy over the past 5ish years seems to back that up pretty solidly). While that may be a bit on the extreme side, even if you extended the ratio to be 50/50, we're still talking about 30 guys every roster who are "just another guy", meaning very easily replaceable with similar talent and skillset. Now take what we know about draft success rates, -- where even first rounders routinely bust -- and you're looking at verrrrry long odds...

 

All of the above is meant to be educational, not confrontational -- you asked what I thought about Bushman: I think at best he's a replaceable/replacement-level player (there are worse things to be in or around the NFL). Maybe he becomes something special, and I can agree that -- in general -- a guy coming off an injury has the ability to be under or misevaluated, but I can just about guarantee you that GMs are going to take chances on a lot of other guys over a guy already in his mid-20s (redshirt senior + mission) coming off of a torn Achilles. Like I said... long odds.

Edited by glazeduck
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4 hours ago, ROCBillsBeliever said:

 

Thanks for the tape, @Motorin'! Hadn't heard of Tonga, before, but he looks like Star on juice! I'd take a late round flier on him.

 

Exactly! I'm high on Alim, but think there's a small chance we go DT in the first 3 rounds. I think I like Tonga best of all the late rounds NT prospects. 

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8 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

Exactly! I'm high on Alim, but think there's a small chance we go DT in the first 3 rounds. I think I like Tonga best of all the late rounds NT prospects. 

Tonga's an interesting one. I'm discounting just about EVERY BYU player this year because of their absolutely silly/fluky scheduling situation, but he's been a solid performer for years. 1Ts are very replaceable in my eyes, so I think I hope we just take the last "solid" option on the board, but I do love me some big polys in the trenches. Wouldn't hate it if we took him late enough! 

 

Also LOVE Alim! He's probably my biggest exception to the "replaceable" rule in this class...

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4 hours ago, glazeduck said:

Agree to disagree on just about all of this...

 

The draft evaluation process is almost never a binary thing -- barring you and I or Thanos being in the draft, every player will be on some sort of evaluation spectrum for every front office. I didn't "eliminate" your guy, I simply said he was "probably a JAG" (also probably not the insult you're taking it as, more on that in a minute). That's not to say that Beane and his team have no idea who Bushman is or deleted his evaluation page without filling any of it out, simply that he's likely nothing special.

 

It's important to keep in mind that front offices are having to constantly track, evaluate, rank and do due diligence on more than 500 of the world's best athletes across 24 positions, use those evaluations to develop a strategy in concert with the coaching staff and then identify how to optimally execute. And all of that is happening first during the playoffs and then free agency and the offseason (where they're absolutely also keeping track of their own players, personnel taking time off, etc.) I'm exhausted just typing all of that out.

 

Simply put, there's too much going on for them to be completely dialed in with every prospect, all the time, so that kind of back-of-napkin math can be helpful. Teams monitor sites like The Draft Network every day to make sure there's not something that they missed because, 1) ESPN, TDN, etc. don't have to worry about the external stuff and can focus solely on evaluations and pumping out content, and 2) because that has now become big business. Anyone can write about how great so many of these WRs are -- and many of us on this site have for free. The big scores would come in finding that needle in the haystack. So my point on Bushman, is -- if there was substantial evidence that he could be some diamond in the rough -- it's a good bet that there would be a decent amount of content out there hypothesizing that, and beyond BYU fan sites, there's not a ton. Like it or don't, but that's more or less the process in a real front office, so I tried to answer your question as such. At the end of the day, EVERY draft pick is at least somewhat an educated guess, and teams use every resource possible to get as much education as possible, but that's also balanced with the need to triage their work, so guys like Bushman, who may or may not even get drafted will automatically get less attention in the evaluation process, than, say, a Pat Freirmuth. That's just the way it works. 

 

To your point on Kittle, he wasn't some unknown quantity, he just wasn't a special athlete or body going the draft process. That class was actually stocked with TE prospects: OJ Howard and David Njoku were two of the best athlete profiles in TE draft history; Evan Engram, Jordan Leggett and Jake Butt were studs in college, and Adam Sheehan had the basketball prototype that GMs are still overdrafting. Kittle wasn't some little known prospect, he was just pushed down by guys who -- at the time -- were better athletic prospects or appeared to be more well-rounded players. If I had to guess, I'd say that due to his smaller stature, most GMs thought the was maxed out as a Jordan Reed type and didn't anticipate him becoming a better athlete. Is some of that misevaluation? Maybe, but quite clearly he has become a better athlete since the 2017 draft, so you have to give the guy credit for his own development as well. But he was 100% an example of a talented guy getting pushed down in a good (or perceived to be good) class.  

 

Lastly, on the JAG thing -- a former player of his (forgetting who, I'll try to dig it up) recently joined a podcast to talk about how Sean McVey saw essentially 90-95% of his roster as JAGs -- like, literally replaceable on the daily type JAGs. His philosophy was that special players win and lose you games, and there are only a handful of special players on each team, so he wanted his personnel strategy to be focused on adding those special type players and filling in with JAGs (FWIW, the Rams' general strategy over the past 5ish years seems to back that up pretty solidly). While that may be a bit on the extreme side, even if you extended the ratio to be 50/50, we're still talking about 30 guys every roster who are "just another guy", meaning very easily replaceable with similar talent and skillset. Now take what we know about draft success rates, -- where even first rounders routinely bust -- and you're looking at verrrrry long odds...

 

All of the above is meant to be educational, not confrontational -- you asked what I thought about Bushman: I think at best he's a replaceable/replacement-level player (there are worse things to be in or around the NFL). Maybe he becomes something special, and I can agree that -- in general -- a guy coming off an injury has the ability to be under or misevaluated, but I can just about guarantee you that GMs are going to take chances on a lot of other guys over a guy already in his mid-20s (redshirt senior + mission) coming off of a torn Achilles. Like I said... long odds.

 

 

 

God bless anyone who read thru all that.

 

Bushman is not "my player"........just pointing out that you are drawing a conclusion that has nothing to do with an actual evaluation of the player.

 

It's basically "all Jeff Tedford system QB's have disappointed in the NFL.........so that's just a no for me"..........there was indeed a string of dud QB's from JT's programs......but then came Aaron Rodgers.

 

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13 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

 

God bless anyone who read thru all that.

 

Bushman is not "my player"........just pointing out that you are drawing a conclusion that has nothing to do with an actual evaluation of the player.

 

It's basically "all Jeff Tedford system QB's have disappointed in the NFL.........so that's just a no for me"..........there was indeed a string of dud QB's from JT's programs......but then came Aaron Rodgers.

 

It's not at all, actually. But I'm sure glad I put in the effort to explain it to you since you very clearly got absolutely nothing out of it. Why ask questions if you're not open to responses other than what you're looking for?

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On 4/4/2021 at 12:03 PM, Motorin' said:

I have a few under the radar guys who could be steals in round 5 and beyond.

 

Simi Fehoko WR, Stanford. 6'4", 222lbs. 4.37 40. Similar college production as DK Metcalf. None of the draft hype. He's a legit deep threat and a big possession receiver. 


Deon Jackson, RB, Duke. 5' 11", 220 lbs. 4.39 40. Good power back, good hands. Has the speed to get outside. One cut north / south runner. 

 

 

 

Kyrsis Tonga, NT, BYU. Big powerful 1 tech. Can penetrate one on one, but will occupy double teams to keep lineman off of our LBs. 

 

 

 

Seeing as Star is coming back and his age this Tonga looks legit he could be a really good player in the D for a while then put him in the Bills strength & conditioning program OMG he'd be even better .

 

Plus a Bills mafia rant of TONGA TONGA TONGA would remind me of animal house when they had a TOGA party 😂

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Just looked into Ellerson Smith. He could be available between 3-5. Small school guy with great stats, shined at the senior bowl, plus has excellent combine numbers. The dude is nearly 6'7 and has 83" wingspan as well. 

 

"Northern Iowa Pro Day 2021: Elerson Smith, Spencer Brown showcase talent | PFN" https://www.profootballnetwork.com/northern-iowa-pro-day-2021-elerson-smith-spencer-brown-showcase-talent/

 

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12 minutes ago, ROONDOGG55 said:

Just looked into Ellerson Smith. He could be available between 3-5. Small school guy with great stats, shined at the senior bowl, plus has excellent combine numbers. The dude is nearly 6'7 and has 83" wingspan as well. 

 

"Northern Iowa Pro Day 2021: Elerson Smith, Spencer Brown showcase talent | PFN" https://www.profootballnetwork.com/northern-iowa-pro-day-2021-elerson-smith-spencer-brown-showcase-talent/

 

LOVE the "take off the jersey" players like that... Put a guy with those in a 'Bama uniform and even as a backup he's a 2nd or 3rd round pick. A lot to like about Elerson Smith! 

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Just now, Victory Formation said:

Well, I hope you stick around after the draft my friend.

Thanks, I lurk and read almost every day. Just harder to be really tuned in to the day-to-day stuff on the other side of the country, so I'm generally less informed and opinionated than I am this time of year :)

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Couple of late round/UDFA types on the defensive line that I like are Cal's Zeandae Johnson and Mississippi State's Kobe Jones. I've seen both of them give draftable OT prospects a tough time due to strength and technique but neither tested especially well. Johnson fits the Bills quite well as a guy with the ability to play base end but kick inside to 3-tech on passing downs.

 

Carson Green from Texas A&M is one of my favourite OT prospects this year, got a 4th round grade on him. Extremely tough and durable run blocker with enough athleticism to succeed. Tommy Doyle from Miami (OH) deserves a preseason shot, just off his tape against AJ Epenesa in 2019.

 

I'm also with @Solomon Grundy on Khalil Herbert. Got a 4th round grade on him as a change of pace zone back. Think he's got the pass game skills, pass pro skills and the return value to be a really good player.

 

 

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14 minutes ago, Blokestradamus said:

Couple of late round/UDFA types on the defensive line that I like are Cal's Zeandae Johnson and Mississippi State's Kobe Jones. I've seen both of them give draftable OT prospects a tough time due to strength and technique but neither tested especially well. Johnson fits the Bills quite well as a guy with the ability to play base end but kick inside to 3-tech on passing downs.

 

Carson Green from Texas A&M is one of my favourite OT prospects this year, got a 4th round grade on him. Extremely tough and durable run blocker with enough athleticism to succeed. Tommy Doyle from Miami (OH) deserves a preseason shot, just off his tape against AJ Epenesa in 2019.

 

I'm also with @Solomon Grundy on Khalil Herbert. Got a 4th round grade on him as a change of pace zone back. Think he's got the pass game skills, pass pro skills and the return value to be a really good player.

 

 

Thanks Blokes!!

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4 minutes ago, frostbitmic said:

Was a transfer to Georgia last year from Florida St. He got hurt before the season and barely played. his Florida St tape looks pretty good.

 

 

I've mentioned McKitty on this board before, definitely an interesting player who never played up to the potential that his athleticism and frame would suggest. I know he faced some injury issues over the years and have seen some speculate that those have caused him to be a lot more stiff than he should be...

 

Feels like a guy who's probably worth a 5 or a 6 to get into an NFL program to see if he can't overcome those issues and breakout, but not somebody I'd be investing a lot of draft capital in...

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3 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

I've mentioned McKitty on this board before, definitely an interesting player who never played up to the potential that his athleticism and frame would suggest. I know he faced some injury issues over the years and have seen some speculate that those have caused him to be a lot more stiff than he should be...

 

Feels like a guy who's probably worth a 5 or a 6 to get into an NFL program to see if he can't overcome those issues and breakout, but not somebody I'd be investing a lot of draft capital in...

Agreed, a 5th or 6th round pick might be worth it. You could find a good contributor or someone who won't make the team. Practice squad for a year or two is likely his destiny.

Would fit nicely on the Lions, Bengals or Panthers.

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Just now, frostbitmic said:

Agreed, a 5th or 6th round pick might be worth it. You could find a good contributor or someone who won't make the team. Practice squad for a year or two is likely his destiny.

Would fit nicely on the Lions, Bengals or Panthers.

Yep. I actually really love what the WFT just did signing Sammis Reyes. Better athlete, same need to develop over a couple years... They basically just purchased a high-ceiling 5th round pick.

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On 4/14/2021 at 8:51 PM, Solomon Grundy said:

I need somebody to tell me why Khalil Herbert isn’t getting any buzz. @BuffaloHokie13, what’s the deal? @DCOrange, @GunnerBill, @Buffalo716
 

 


Not seeing anything terribly special in those clips.  Looks like a 5-7th round special teams ace/backup RB who could produce in the right system (Green Bay comes to mind).

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On 4/14/2021 at 5:51 PM, Solomon Grundy said:

I need somebody to tell me why Khalil Herbert isn’t getting any buzz. @BuffaloHokie13, what’s the deal? @DCOrange, @GunnerBill, @Buffalo716
 

 

Here's the thing about the RB class... It's pretty bad. No, it's just flat-out bad. VERY few of these guys outside of the top 3 are going to amount to much of anything in the pros. Herbert has some decent tape, but also lost out on a starting job to Pooka Williams who's one of many uninspiring RBs in this class... If you can't beat out a classmate who's pretty "meh", what are you?

 

I do think Herbert's tape has a little interest to it, but the fact is, we're just as likely to get somebody with nearly as much potential as a UDFA as we are drafting Herbert in the 5th. 

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1 hour ago, glazeduck said:

Yep. I actually really love what the WFT just did signing Sammis Reyes. Better athlete, same need to develop over a couple years... They basically just purchased a high-ceiling 5th round pick.

Reyes would be eligible in the international program, wouldn't he ?

 

If so that's a solid signing by the WTF.

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28 minutes ago, frostbitmic said:

Reyes would be eligible in the international program, wouldn't he ?

 

If so that's a solid signing by the WTF.

I have no idea, but you'd think so? Would allow them to keep him on the active roster (protect him from poaching) for a year at least...

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9 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:


Not seeing anything terribly special in those clips.  Looks like a 5-7th round special teams ace/backup RB who could produce in the right system (Green Bay comes to mind).

He definitely shows the burst/speed that Motor/Moss doesn't. Reminiscent of Breida

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