Thoughts on Curtis Samuel

[Richard Noggin]

7 hours ago, DJB said:

I like that his last name could also be his first name. 

 

I'm here for this kind of analysis.

[Estro]

51 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

 
So in 2022 they will save $6.1M cutting Beasley  but will pay $14.5M to Samuel... 

 

Beasley has just come off his best season..is Samuel really going to be that much better in 2022?

 

I'm expecting there to be a pretty healthy jump in the cap in '22 and then again in '23, so while a $14.5M cap is heavy I don't think it'll be prohibitive.

 

Also I don't think Beasley is a definite cut after this season, but it also would not be a surprise at all. No one would've been predicting John Brown would be cut this offseason a year ago, but now here we are a yr. later and its highly likely he'll be cut.  I'm not saying Beasley definitely goes, but he is pretty old, and the cap savings will be substantial enough where it'll certainly be possible next offseason.

 

I just really like the prospects of having Curtis Samuel in this offense and think he'd be a homerun signing.  My philosophy is just keep adding to our offense, even if it means sacrificing some of the talent on D.

[LEBills]

6 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

I’ll take just one...

 

Tampa Bay’s demolition of the a Chiefs showed me to value the whole team... not just the flashy skill guys...

 

Getting a team like the Bucs would be great, not always possible. In the end, adding a WR in free agency isn’t going to kill us. What we have to do is hit on a good chunk of the players we decide to draft like the Bucs did with white, David, Davis, Godwin, Evans, etc etc etc.

 

However, the year before the Chiefs won a super bowl over a well rounded team with crazy skill possession players and a few impact defensive players like Matthieu, Clark and Jones. So I guess what I’m trying to say is there is a lot of ways to win a Super Bowl but I think our best chance is through Joshs right arm and an upgrade of our offense (OL, WR, RB) and so I want to focus on building that and I think Samuel would check off the WR box.

[machine gun kelly]

I don’t think another WR makes us better.  An effective running game and an effective pass rush with 4 makes us better.  We have a lot going for us.  One of the better secondaries in the league, an offensive line with excellent pass pro, even if run blocking is not the best, and an excellent passing game.

[Aussie Joe]

27 minutes ago, LEBills said:

 

Getting a team like the Bucs would be great, not always possible. In the end, adding a WR in free agency isn’t going to kill us. What we have to do is hit on a good chunk of the players we decide to draft like the Bucs did with white, David, Davis, Godwin, Evans, etc etc etc.

This year with limited cap space and some gaping holes ... I just don’t see the reason to bring in a slot receiver when the guy in the role just had a season of 960 yards in 14 games.. I think they can be confident in Beasley seeing out his contract and perhaps even another year... 

 

The Bills D line got exposed against the Chiefs... the Bucs did to the Chiefs what the Bills wanted to do... just rushed 4 guys but had Mahomes running for his life...

 

They need upgrades for the DL ... a replacements  for Murphy, Butler and maybe Addison...and they have other areas they can upgrade like the OL ( is Williams back? going to cost them) TE, a replacement for Milano... CB2 .... 

[Aussie Joe]

1 hour ago, Estro said:

 

 

Also I don't think Beasley is a definite cut after this season, but it also would not be a surprise at all. No one would've been predicting John Brown would be cut this offseason a year ago, but now here we are a yr. later and its highly likely he'll be cut.  I'm not saying Beasley definitely goes, but he is pretty old, and the cap savings will be substantial enough where it'll certainly be possible next offseason.

 

 

Beasley and Brown play different roles and are two different guys...( Brown is dependent on his speed) 

 

Maybe compare Beasley to Amendola and Edelman instead that have a few years on Cole ...

Edited February 28, 2021 by Aussie Joe

[Seoulofstone]

Not that it matters, but Samuel wasn't a great pick for the Panthers.They traded up to get him, taking him ahead of JuJu, Courtland Sutton and Godwin. 

 

He was injured a fair bit in his first two years, ran lousy routes and dropped some big plays. None of this should be a surprise, he was a rb at Ohio, asked to play as a slot for an inaccurate QB.

 

 This season was his best as a result of his learning curve and Joe Brady scheming YAC opportunities for him. Hopefully he goes to a team that uses his skillset wisely. 

 

 

[BillsFan1988]

13 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Yes he is gonna get paid

 

but

 

Look at all the things he can actually do well....this swiss army knife is literally that and could replace players on the team in different roles actually making him a bargain

 

- Replaces John Brown (if they choose to go that route)

- Replaces jet sweep ability along us to replace McKenzie's role

- Could serve as the speed back we need to compliment the running backs we currently have

 

Lets not forget that Beane drafted him

I agree with some of your premise but Samuel going to be way to expensive. Plus he plays in the slot most of the time. 

Now if we can get him at around 8 mil per which I highly doubt we can then yes but for 13-14 mil a yr no way. He's not a special player in think we can find similar players in the draft for much cheaper. 

[BobbyC81]

13 hours ago, DJB said:

I like that his last name could also be his first name. 

 

Curtis is the runner and Samuel is the receiver?

[BillsFan1988]

15 hours ago, FireChans said:

Beane doesn’t start looking at Carolina players until they are on their fourth or fifth contract in their mid 30s. The Bills are the retirement plan for half of the Panthers organization. 

We missed out on the only Panther that was truly worth the signing James Bradbury was that guy is that guy. Top 5 corner in the league only signed 3yr -45 mil deal with the Giants.  Imagine him and Tre on field together that would of been shutdown city. Instead we wanted to dump extra money on the DLINE with average players at best. Mof we sat Murphy and his 9mil on the bench most of the yr add in Norman deal for 6mil and u have an elite corner in Bradbury instead. Check out his numbers vs elite wrs especially in NFC south like Julio , Evans, Thomas in 2019 he shut them down. 

[Doc]

Samuel would at-best be the 4th receiving option for the Bills (behind Diggs, Beasley and Davis).  I'm not sure why you'd spend decent money trying to add him.  As I've been saying, I'd approach Stills with a lowball offer and try and get him.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

7 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

I don’t think another WR makes us better.  An effective running game and an effective pass rush with 4 makes us better.  We have a lot going for us.  One of the better secondaries in the league, an offensive line with excellent pass pro, even if run blocking is not the best, and an excellent passing game.

 

The problem is the ages of both Beasley and Brown. I think we're playing with fire if we don't bring in one more WR. The question is how much do we spend on one. If Beane and Daboll think Davis and/or McKenzie can take a giant leap forward in production then I think we can get buy with a  very low level replacement. If not then we need to probably look to bring in a guy for $8-10 million a year.

 

I like Agohlor over Samuel. I think Nelson Agohlor will be a couple million per year cheaper and he is a more proven true WR that could possibly replace both Brown or Beasley if needed. I see him having a career year in Buffalo if we sign him which would put his numbers around 1,000 yards and 10Tds. If we want a Samuel like player on a cheap contract we can hope to draft Kadarius Toney from Florida if he is available. 

 

And I will get a lot of flack for this one but I would kick the tires on brining Sammy back on a bottom barrel contract. Nothing over 4-5 million per year. If Agohlor played on a $1million contract last year ask if Sammy will. Worst that happens is he says no. Somehow Sammy had his best statistical years in Buffalo under Rex Ryan's ground and pound attack with EJ Manuel and Tyrod Taylor. I know he'll be looking for more like $8-10 million per year but good luck with his injury history and lack of production when healthy. 

 

 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

WR is interesting, on one side we have some aging studs in Bease and Brown, top 3 guys all got injured last year, and the Josh Allen factor has seen every WR who has signed here have a career year.

 

IF the Bills let Brown go (hope not) and given Beasley’s age, I could see Samuel happening. 
 

I could also see Humpries or Jackson coming in to replace McKenzie. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

17 hours ago, Limeaid said:

That must be why he signed Brown, right?

 

And McKenzie

 

 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

2 hours ago, Doc said:

Samuel would at-best be the 4th receiving option for the Bills (behind Diggs, Beasley and Davis).  I'm not sure why you'd spend decent money trying to add him.  As I've been saying, I'd approach Stills with a lowball offer and try and get him.

Bease is 33, And we’ve seen plenty of 1 hit wonders as rookies.

 

17 regular season games this year will be tricky... I don’t think we want Touchdown Jesus and Duke as the #1 and #2 WRs in the AFC championship next year so we may have to get creative in building some legit depth at WR.

[Aussie Joe]

6 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Bease is 33, And we’ve seen plenty of 1 hit wonders as rookies.

 

 

He is 31... turns 32 in April ...

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Doc said:

Samuel would at-best be the 4th receiving option for the Bills (behind Diggs, Beasley and Davis).  I'm not sure why you'd spend decent money trying to add him.  As I've been saying, I'd approach Stills with a lowball offer and try and get him.

 

This opinion interests me.  I know Kenny Stills is fast, but he also was traded by his draft team, traded away by the team that signed him as a FA, and then released (with a full guaranteed salary) mid-season by a team that was not deep at WR talent after becoming a healthy scratch.

 

What is there that you've seen from Stills past that makes you see him as any kind of a substitute for Brown? 

 

BTW, having essentially brought him in for a 3 week locker-room and practice-field audition, if the Bills wanted to make him a low-ball offer I'm sure they already have.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

The problem is the ages of both Beasley and Brown. I think we're playing with fire if we don't bring in one more WR. The question is how much do we spend on one. If Beane and Daboll think Davis and/or McKenzie can take a giant leap forward in production then I think we can get buy with a  very low level replacement. If not then we need to probably look to bring in a guy for $8-10 million a year.

 

Recall they like Isaiah Hodgins as well.  Both he and Davis aren't fast, but as the "Receiver Factory" where Diggs works out advertises, "Won't get you stronger.  Won't get you faster.  Will get you open."

 

I'm sure the Bills will keep looking for high-quality WR possibilities in the lower-tiers of FA/UDFA/draft.  But keep in mind that a number of WR have played at a high level into their 30's - Welker, Edelman, Larry Fitzgerald.  I don't think being 31 going on 32 or 30 going on 31 is a reason per se they move on from Beasley.  Brown is a skilled route runner, but relies more on speed and seems able to be erased by physical coverage.

 

I think the concern with Brown is whether this year is a one-off for injuries or the sign of a downhill slide, and the people in the best position to know that would be the Bills medical and training staff.  Brown had a couple of injury-plagued seasons that led AZ to move on from him, and which from his side he feels were mis-diagnosed and mis-handled by the team.  He's been so far very positive about the training staff and facilities in Buffalo but it's also noteworthy he brings in outside people as well - he posts or they post about it on Instagram - his right, absolutely, but sometimes when people seek extra help or opinions it's because they're not liking what they hear or because they fear the consequences of being fully honest with what they're feeling.

 

 

[Doc]

30 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Bease is 33, And we’ve seen plenty of 1 hit wonders as rookies.

 

17 regular season games this year will be tricky... I don’t think we want Touchdown Jesus and Duke as the #1 and #2 WRs in the AFC championship next year so we may have to get creative in building some legit depth at WR.

 

I haven't stated otherwise.

 

14 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

This opinion interests me.  I know Kenny Stills is fast, but he also was traded by his draft team, traded away by the team that signed him as a FA, and then released (with a full guaranteed salary) mid-season by a team that was not deep at WR talent after becoming a healthy scratch.

 

What is there that you've seen from Stills past that makes you see him as any kind of a substitute for Brown? 

 

BTW, having essentially brought him in for a 3 week locker-room and practice-field audition, if the Bills wanted to make him a low-ball offer I'm sure they already have.

 

Their stats have been similar over their careers (and, it's interesting to note that Stills has been in the league 1 more year than Brown but is 2 years younger).  And again he was with the team and knows them better than an outside guy.

 

As for an offer, I'm sure they offered him something and he'll want to look around.  But without many takers there's a good chance he takes it.  We shall see but I don't see any other as-cheap options as him.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 minutes ago, Doc said:

As for an offer, I'm sure they offered him something and he'll want to look around.  But without many takers there's a good chance he takes it.  We shall see but I don't see any other as-cheap options as him.

 

I'm not so sure.  I think getting released off the Texans mid-season when his salary was fully guaranteed is a flag - "we'd rather have your space than your pre-paid services".  I think they brought him in as a 3 week audition for whether or not he could fit in as "process".  I have no preset opinion on the outcome.

[Nextmanup]

Never trust anyone with two first names.

 

 

[BillsFan1988]

I hope we just take Ettiene at #30 if he's available. This offense has really good wideouts what we really need is either a difference maker at RB or TE. Now all world TE are very very hard to find it's not a direct science finding them either I think it's more about how there developed more then anything else. But backs u can find them and usually the better ones are located in first couple rds of the draft. Ettiene has a Kamara type style to him but I think he's even a better runner then Kamara. This Offense would definitely shoot to the stars with a difference making back. 

[Logic]

Never trust a man with two first names.




*Suddenly remembers that our quarterback is named Josh Allen"

Ah, shoot....

[Doc]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I'm not so sure.  I think getting released off the Texans mid-season when his salary was fully guaranteed is a flag - "we'd rather have your space than your pre-paid services".  I think they brought him in as a 3 week audition for whether or not he could fit in as "process".  I have no preset opinion on the outcome.

 

That Stills has bounced-around a bit is concerning.  But with a small, short-term contract, it shouldn't be much of an issue.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

25 minutes ago, Doc said:

That Stills has bounced-around a bit is concerning.  But with a small, short-term contract, it shouldn't be much of an issue.

 

I sorta went through this argument back when we were handing out small contracts like candy to different WR (in 2018 or whenever it was).  Add up a million here, a million there, and next thing you know you got $5-8M tied up and you could obtain a legit upgrade at some position.

Fast forward to the present, I think with the cap situation so tight, we have to look hard at who we give small short-term contracts to.  Obviously the Bills are the ones who had the up-close-and-personal look at Stills and his habits and how he got along with the team. 

If giving a small, short term contract to Kenny Stills means we don't give one to, say, Isaiah McKenzie who has caught nearly 73% of everything thrown at him in the last 2 years (and they weren't all jet sweeps) and who apparently talks unlimited trash but will do anything he can to help the team whether it's playing Kyler Murray or Lamar Jackson for the scout team or filling in at CB or returning punts, then IMHO its an issue.

 

 

 

 

[RyanC883]

Would love him on the Bills. 
 

But if we shed money to create cap space, would rather spend it on an Edge.  McKenzie should be cheapish to keep, and some speedy WR’s project in the 4-6 round range.  
 

btw, I think we trade out of 30 into 2nd and get a 4th round pick. 

43 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

That Stills has bounced-around a bit is concerning.  But with a small, short-term contract, it shouldn't be much of an issue.

Stills was a baller at MIA and fell off a cliff o something.   

[LyndonvilleBill]

19 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I sorta went through this argument back when we were handing out small contracts like candy to different WR (in 2018 or whenever it was).  Add up a million here, a million there, and next thing you know you got $5-8M tied up and you could obtain a legit upgrade at some position.

Fast forward to the present, I think with the cap situation so tight, we have to look hard at who we give small short-term contracts to.  Obviously the Bills are the ones who had the up-close-and-personal look at Stills and his habits and how he got along with the team. 

If giving a small, short term contract to Kenny Stills means we don't give one to, say, Isaiah McKenzie who has caught nearly 73% of everything thrown at him in the last 2 years (and they weren't all jet sweeps) and who apparently talks unlimited trash but will do anything he can to help the team whether it's playing Kyler Murray or Lamar Jackson for the scout team or filling in at CB or returning punts, then IMHO its an issue.

 

 

 

 

This is were I am at well. I'd rather pay 3 mill or so and have Mckensie than 4 mill plus for someone else. I think he's earned it.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

17 minutes ago, LyndonvilleBill said:

This is were I am at well. I'd rather pay 3 mill or so and have Mckensie than 4 mill plus for someone else. I think he's earned it.

 

I know he isn't a guy we drafted, but I see him for sure as a "draft and develop" homegrown sort of guy who has really come on as a route runner and is worth keeping.  Especially if we want speed!

 

Getting back to the OP topic, I'm sure Curtis Samuel would be an upgrade, but in a limited cap year I'm not sure how we swing that.

[LyndonvilleBill]

8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I know he isn't a guy we drafted, but I see him for sure as a "draft and develop" homegrown sort of guy who has really come on as a route runner and is worth keeping.  Especially if we want speed!

Totally agree as I see them cutting Brown in order to re-sign William's. Mckensie just seems like the right fit for Buffalo and the team. As you've said, he'll do whatever he needs to do for the Team. Not many wr's have that attitude...

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm not so sure.  I think getting released off the Texans mid-season when his salary was fully guaranteed is a flag - "we'd rather have your space than your pre-paid services".  I think they brought him in as a 3 week audition for whether or not he could fit in as "process".  I have no preset opinion on the outcome.

 

 

Stills might be washed but you are wrong on two important counts:

 

1) The Texans didn't just choose to release him.........he ASKED for his release.

 

2) The Texans had a deep and high quality veteran WR corps........the X and Z that Stills would preferably play combined for 2,000 yards receiving.

 

[BADOLBILZ]

17 hours ago, Estro said:

Curtis Samuel, IMO, is the perfect FA target for the Bills.

 

I still remember Buffalo media members raving over his skillet when the Bills practiced Carolina a few years back. I also think he's a WR that is very underrated due to the QBs he's played with (Cam on his downside & journeyman Teddy).

 

I'm also of the belief that the Bills should prioritize adding weapons for the offense and making sacrifices on defense to keep our offense strong. I feel like McDermott can get more out of less on the defensive side of the ball, so I'd like to see our limited cap space spent on players that help our offense.

 

Here's my idea of what a Curtis Samuel deal could look like that the Bills could easily fit in cap space wise this yr:

 

3 years - $34.5M

$12M signing bonus

 

Yr 1: $1.5M base ($13.5M cash), $5.5M cap

Yr 2: $10.5M base, $14.5M cap

Yr 3: $10.5M base $14.5M cap

 

Keep in mind this could be Cole Beasley's last year on the Bills, so I like the idea of getting someone like Samuel who can replace Brown @ the X spot this year......but also a guy who is versatile enough to perhaps replace Cole Beasley @ the slot position in 2022 (the Bills save $6.1M by cutting Beasley next year)

 

I also think a guy like Samuel would maybe take just a little bit less to play with Josh Allen & in an offense where his production could shine.  I dont think he'd take a huge discount, but if it's between the Bills @ 3 years - $34.5M or say the Jets @ 3 yrs - $39M I could envision a scenario where he'd prefer the Bills.

 

 

I like where you are going with this.........IMO the best and longer term return on investment for this team is going to come from investing on the offensive side of the ball.    

 

That requires excellent pro and college scouting work on the defensive side of the ball.........but that's why they have this all-star staff.

 

If Whaley and company can find a Zach Brown and Lorax for pennies in the span of a week in the bargain portion of free agency and have them turn into the league's leading tackler and a DPOY candidate then we should hope that this staff can find some bargains to provide better bang for the buck than some of the previous UFA shopping trips.

[The Jokeman]

An affordable John Brown type might be Phillip Dorsett.

[Aussie Joe]

35 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

If Whaley and company can find a Zach Brown and Lorax for pennies in the span of a week in the bargain portion of free agency and have them turn into the league's leading tackler and a DPOY candidate then we should hope that this staff can find some bargains to provide better bang for the buck than some of the previous UFA shopping trips.

 

Im glad Whaley found a few bargain basement types.. 

 

What was the best record they had during Whaley's time in the seat.. did they get to 9-7 one time?

 

[Doc]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I sorta went through this argument back when we were handing out small contracts like candy to different WR (in 2018 or whenever it was).  Add up a million here, a million there, and next thing you know you got $5-8M tied up and you could obtain a legit upgrade at some position.

Fast forward to the present, I think with the cap situation so tight, we have to look hard at who we give small short-term contracts to.  Obviously the Bills are the ones who had the up-close-and-personal look at Stills and his habits and how he got along with the team. 

If giving a small, short term contract to Kenny Stills means we don't give one to, say, Isaiah McKenzie who has caught nearly 73% of everything thrown at him in the last 2 years (and they weren't all jet sweeps) and who apparently talks unlimited trash but will do anything he can to help the team whether it's playing Kyler Murray or Lamar Jackson for the scout team or filling in at CB or returning punts, then IMHO its an issue.

 

They could sign both Stills and McKenzie with the money saved cutting Brown.  Maybe even have some left over.  They'll need to add WRs given McKenzie and Roberts are UFAs and if they feel they should move on from Brown.  As for Stills, whether he fits and still has something left is up to them to determine given the 3 week audition he had.  If not, they still need to add a WR or two.

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

 

Im glad Whaley found a few bargain basement types.. 

 

What was the best record they had during Whaley's time in the seat.. did they get to 9-7 one time?

 

 

They did in 2014. Whaley's 3 full years (ie where he was in charger of draft and free agency) they were exactly .500 - 9-7, 8-8, 7-9 despite some pretty appalling coaching. But I don't think Badol's point was to defend Whaley or suggest he is better than our current front office. Just that they have overspent on guys they know on the defensive side in FA and that isn't a sustainable strategy when the priority switches now to being an offense first team led by a top 5 QB. You need your cap $$s for weapons and protection and so you have to get more creative on defense.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Stills might be washed but you are wrong on two important counts:

1) The Texans didn't just choose to release him.........he ASKED for his release.

 

Do you think the Texans would have released him, given that his salary was fully guaranteed, if they didn't want his space more than his contributions at that point?

How often do you think teams release a player with a guaranteed salary when he asks with 6 games left, unless they see him as a guy they want out of the room?

 

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

2) The Texans had a deep and high quality veteran WR corps........the X and Z that Stills would preferably play combined for 2,000 yards receiving.

 

You're talking about Brandin Cooks, who played 15 games, and Will "Whoops! Suspended!" Fuller who played 11 games, and who?

 

 

[Solomon Grundy]

Anybody for Kendrick Bourne??? Bigger, more physical WR. Can probably get for a real good bargain 

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Anybody for Kendrick Bourne??? Bigger, more physical WR. Can probably get for a real good bargain 

 

Slow though... I think he is a better fit in that Shanahan scheme than in the spread style concepts Daboll and the Bills ran last year. I'd expect him to end up at one of the many Shanny style teams.

[Aussie Joe]

50 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

 But I don't think Badol's point was to defend Whaley or suggest he is better than our current front office. Just that they have overspent on guys they know on the defensive side in FA and that isn't a sustainable strategy when the priority switches now to being an offense first team led by a top 5 QB. You need your cap $$s for weapons and protection and so you have to get more creative on defense.

 

Beane has overspent on some guys in FA.. cant argue with that... 

 

But like I keep saying.. you cant ignore the D or just try to find bargain basement types to fill the gaps...

 

I keep going back to the Bucs and how they absolutely stuck it up Kansas City..  That D is solid top to bottom..

 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

 

Beane has overspent on some guys in FA.. cant argue with that... 

 

But like I keep saying.. you cant ignore the D or just try to find bargain basement types to fill the gaps...

 

I keep going back to the Bucs and how they absolutely stuck it up Kansas City..  That D is solid top to bottom..

 

 

 

 

They found Shaq Barrett at a bargain price (I know he played on the tag this year) and the two linebackers, Vea and their whole secondary are drafted guys who with the exception of David are on their rookie deals. They have Suh and JPP at age 32 and 34 who have made their money and are playing below their true value to be on a competitor. 

 

There is no "one way" to win in this league I say it all the time, but the Bills defensive free agent strategy has to be about finding more Poyers and Hydes and fewer Addisons and Butlers. Especially this year there will be bargains out there to be had. They have to find them.