Thoughts on Curtis Samuel

[Richard Noggin]

7 hours ago, DJB said:

I like that his last name could also be his first name. 

 

I'm here for this kind of analysis.

[Estro]

51 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

 
So in 2022 they will save $6.1M cutting Beasley  but will pay $14.5M to Samuel... 

 

Beasley has just come off his best season..is Samuel really going to be that much better in 2022?

 

I'm expecting there to be a pretty healthy jump in the cap in '22 and then again in '23, so while a $14.5M cap is heavy I don't think it'll be prohibitive.

 

Also I don't think Beasley is a definite cut after this season, but it also would not be a surprise at all. No one would've been predicting John Brown would be cut this offseason a year ago, but now here we are a yr. later and its highly likely he'll be cut.  I'm not saying Beasley definitely goes, but he is pretty old, and the cap savings will be substantial enough where it'll certainly be possible next offseason.

 

I just really like the prospects of having Curtis Samuel in this offense and think he'd be a homerun signing.  My philosophy is just keep adding to our offense, even if it means sacrificing some of the talent on D.

[LEBills]

6 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

I’ll take just one...

 

Tampa Bay’s demolition of the a Chiefs showed me to value the whole team... not just the flashy skill guys...

 

Getting a team like the Bucs would be great, not always possible. In the end, adding a WR in free agency isn’t going to kill us. What we have to do is hit on a good chunk of the players we decide to draft like the Bucs did with white, David, Davis, Godwin, Evans, etc etc etc.

 

However, the year before the Chiefs won a super bowl over a well rounded team with crazy skill possession players and a few impact defensive players like Matthieu, Clark and Jones. So I guess what I’m trying to say is there is a lot of ways to win a Super Bowl but I think our best chance is through Joshs right arm and an upgrade of our offense (OL, WR, RB) and so I want to focus on building that and I think Samuel would check off the WR box.

[machine gun kelly]

I don’t think another WR makes us better.  An effective running game and an effective pass rush with 4 makes us better.  We have a lot going for us.  One of the better secondaries in the league, an offensive line with excellent pass pro, even if run blocking is not the best, and an excellent passing game.

[Aussie Joe]

27 minutes ago, LEBills said:

 

Getting a team like the Bucs would be great, not always possible. In the end, adding a WR in free agency isn’t going to kill us. What we have to do is hit on a good chunk of the players we decide to draft like the Bucs did with white, David, Davis, Godwin, Evans, etc etc etc.

This year with limited cap space and some gaping holes ... I just don’t see the reason to bring in a slot receiver when the guy in the role just had a season of 960 yards in 14 games.. I think they can be confident in Beasley seeing out his contract and perhaps even another year... 

 

The Bills D line got exposed against the Chiefs... the Bucs did to the Chiefs what the Bills wanted to do... just rushed 4 guys but had Mahomes running for his life...

 

They need upgrades for the DL ... a replacements  for Murphy, Butler and maybe Addison...and they have other areas they can upgrade like the OL ( is Williams back? going to cost them) TE, a replacement for Milano... CB2 .... 

[Aussie Joe]

1 hour ago, Estro said:

 

 

Also I don't think Beasley is a definite cut after this season, but it also would not be a surprise at all. No one would've been predicting John Brown would be cut this offseason a year ago, but now here we are a yr. later and its highly likely he'll be cut.  I'm not saying Beasley definitely goes, but he is pretty old, and the cap savings will be substantial enough where it'll certainly be possible next offseason.

 

 

Beasley and Brown play different roles and are two different guys...( Brown is dependent on his speed) 

 

Maybe compare Beasley to Amendola and Edelman instead that have a few years on Cole ...

Edited February 28, 2021 by Aussie Joe

[Seoulofstone]

Not that it matters, but Samuel wasn't a great pick for the Panthers.They traded up to get him, taking him ahead of JuJu, Courtland Sutton and Godwin. 

 

He was injured a fair bit in his first two years, ran lousy routes and dropped some big plays. None of this should be a surprise, he was a rb at Ohio, asked to play as a slot for an inaccurate QB.

 

 This season was his best as a result of his learning curve and Joe Brady scheming YAC opportunities for him. Hopefully he goes to a team that uses his skillset wisely. 

 

 

[BillsFan1988]

13 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Yes he is gonna get paid

 

but

 

Look at all the things he can actually do well....this swiss army knife is literally that and could replace players on the team in different roles actually making him a bargain

 

- Replaces John Brown (if they choose to go that route)

- Replaces jet sweep ability along us to replace McKenzie's role

- Could serve as the speed back we need to compliment the running backs we currently have

 

Lets not forget that Beane drafted him

I agree with some of your premise but Samuel going to be way to expensive. Plus he plays in the slot most of the time. 

Now if we can get him at around 8 mil per which I highly doubt we can then yes but for 13-14 mil a yr no way. He's not a special player in think we can find similar players in the draft for much cheaper. 

[BobbyC81]

13 hours ago, DJB said:

I like that his last name could also be his first name. 

 

Curtis is the runner and Samuel is the receiver?

[BillsFan1988]

15 hours ago, FireChans said:

Beane doesn’t start looking at Carolina players until they are on their fourth or fifth contract in their mid 30s. The Bills are the retirement plan for half of the Panthers organization. 

We missed out on the only Panther that was truly worth the signing James Bradbury was that guy is that guy. Top 5 corner in the league only signed 3yr -45 mil deal with the Giants.  Imagine him and Tre on field together that would of been shutdown city. Instead we wanted to dump extra money on the DLINE with average players at best. Mof we sat Murphy and his 9mil on the bench most of the yr add in Norman deal for 6mil and u have an elite corner in Bradbury instead. Check out his numbers vs elite wrs especially in NFC south like Julio , Evans, Thomas in 2019 he shut them down. 

[Doc]

Samuel would at-best be the 4th receiving option for the Bills (behind Diggs, Beasley and Davis).  I'm not sure why you'd spend decent money trying to add him.  As I've been saying, I'd approach Stills with a lowball offer and try and get him.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

7 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

I don’t think another WR makes us better.  An effective running game and an effective pass rush with 4 makes us better.  We have a lot going for us.  One of the better secondaries in the league, an offensive line with excellent pass pro, even if run blocking is not the best, and an excellent passing game.

 

The problem is the ages of both Beasley and Brown. I think we're playing with fire if we don't bring in one more WR. The question is how much do we spend on one. If Beane and Daboll think Davis and/or McKenzie can take a giant leap forward in production then I think we can get buy with a  very low level replacement. If not then we need to probably look to bring in a guy for $8-10 million a year.

 

I like Agohlor over Samuel. I think Nelson Agohlor will be a couple million per year cheaper and he is a more proven true WR that could possibly replace both Brown or Beasley if needed. I see him having a career year in Buffalo if we sign him which would put his numbers around 1,000 yards and 10Tds. If we want a Samuel like player on a cheap contract we can hope to draft Kadarius Toney from Florida if he is available. 

 

And I will get a lot of flack for this one but I would kick the tires on brining Sammy back on a bottom barrel contract. Nothing over 4-5 million per year. If Agohlor played on a $1million contract last year ask if Sammy will. Worst that happens is he says no. Somehow Sammy had his best statistical years in Buffalo under Rex Ryan's ground and pound attack with EJ Manuel and Tyrod Taylor. I know he'll be looking for more like $8-10 million per year but good luck with his injury history and lack of production when healthy. 

 

 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

WR is interesting, on one side we have some aging studs in Bease and Brown, top 3 guys all got injured last year, and the Josh Allen factor has seen every WR who has signed here have a career year.

 

IF the Bills let Brown go (hope not) and given Beasley’s age, I could see Samuel happening. 
 

I could also see Humpries or Jackson coming in to replace McKenzie. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

17 hours ago, Limeaid said:

That must be why he signed Brown, right?

 

And McKenzie

 

 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

2 hours ago, Doc said:

Samuel would at-best be the 4th receiving option for the Bills (behind Diggs, Beasley and Davis).  I'm not sure why you'd spend decent money trying to add him.  As I've been saying, I'd approach Stills with a lowball offer and try and get him.

Bease is 33, And we’ve seen plenty of 1 hit wonders as rookies.

 

17 regular season games this year will be tricky... I don’t think we want Touchdown Jesus and Duke as the #1 and #2 WRs in the AFC championship next year so we may have to get creative in building some legit depth at WR.

[Aussie Joe]

6 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Bease is 33, And we’ve seen plenty of 1 hit wonders as rookies.

 

 

He is 31... turns 32 in April ...

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Doc said:

Samuel would at-best be the 4th receiving option for the Bills (behind Diggs, Beasley and Davis).  I'm not sure why you'd spend decent money trying to add him.  As I've been saying, I'd approach Stills with a lowball offer and try and get him.

 

This opinion interests me.  I know Kenny Stills is fast, but he also was traded by his draft team, traded away by the team that signed him as a FA, and then released (with a full guaranteed salary) mid-season by a team that was not deep at WR talent after becoming a healthy scratch.

 

What is there that you've seen from Stills past that makes you see him as any kind of a substitute for Brown? 

 

BTW, having essentially brought him in for a 3 week locker-room and practice-field audition, if the Bills wanted to make him a low-ball offer I'm sure they already have.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

The problem is the ages of both Beasley and Brown. I think we're playing with fire if we don't bring in one more WR. The question is how much do we spend on one. If Beane and Daboll think Davis and/or McKenzie can take a giant leap forward in production then I think we can get buy with a  very low level replacement. If not then we need to probably look to bring in a guy for $8-10 million a year.

 

Recall they like Isaiah Hodgins as well.  Both he and Davis aren't fast, but as the "Receiver Factory" where Diggs works out advertises, "Won't get you stronger.  Won't get you faster.  Will get you open."

 

I'm sure the Bills will keep looking for high-quality WR possibilities in the lower-tiers of FA/UDFA/draft.  But keep in mind that a number of WR have played at a high level into their 30's - Welker, Edelman, Larry Fitzgerald.  I don't think being 31 going on 32 or 30 going on 31 is a reason per se they move on from Beasley.  Brown is a skilled route runner, but relies more on speed and seems able to be erased by physical coverage.

 

I think the concern with Brown is whether this year is a one-off for injuries or the sign of a downhill slide, and the people in the best position to know that would be the Bills medical and training staff.  Brown had a couple of injury-plagued seasons that led AZ to move on from him, and which from his side he feels were mis-diagnosed and mis-handled by the team.  He's been so far very positive about the training staff and facilities in Buffalo but it's also noteworthy he brings in outside people as well - he posts or they post about it on Instagram - his right, absolutely, but sometimes when people seek extra help or opinions it's because they're not liking what they hear or because they fear the consequences of being fully honest with what they're feeling.

 

 

[Doc]

30 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Bease is 33, And we’ve seen plenty of 1 hit wonders as rookies.

 

17 regular season games this year will be tricky... I don’t think we want Touchdown Jesus and Duke as the #1 and #2 WRs in the AFC championship next year so we may have to get creative in building some legit depth at WR.

 

I haven't stated otherwise.

 

14 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

This opinion interests me.  I know Kenny Stills is fast, but he also was traded by his draft team, traded away by the team that signed him as a FA, and then released (with a full guaranteed salary) mid-season by a team that was not deep at WR talent after becoming a healthy scratch.

 

What is there that you've seen from Stills past that makes you see him as any kind of a substitute for Brown? 

 

BTW, having essentially brought him in for a 3 week locker-room and practice-field audition, if the Bills wanted to make him a low-ball offer I'm sure they already have.

 

Their stats have been similar over their careers (and, it's interesting to note that Stills has been in the league 1 more year than Brown but is 2 years younger).  And again he was with the team and knows them better than an outside guy.

 

As for an offer, I'm sure they offered him something and he'll want to look around.  But without many takers there's a good chance he takes it.  We shall see but I don't see any other as-cheap options as him.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 minutes ago, Doc said:

As for an offer, I'm sure they offered him something and he'll want to look around.  But without many takers there's a good chance he takes it.  We shall see but I don't see any other as-cheap options as him.

 

I'm not so sure.  I think getting released off the Texans mid-season when his salary was fully guaranteed is a flag - "we'd rather have your space than your pre-paid services".  I think they brought him in as a 3 week audition for whether or not he could fit in as "process".  I have no preset opinion on the outcome.