Steptide Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 13 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said: So go 5 wide and smoke them underneath. You’re not going to cover Diggs, Beasley, Brown, Davis and McKenzie. A few screens would be nice to 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeffalo Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 (edited) Isaiah McKenzie boarding the plane for KC today. Edited January 23, 2021 by JV14 5 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColoradoBills Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 54 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said: I just have this overwhelming feeling that the OL is going to hold up well and Josh is going to be slinging dimes into the holes of that KC zone. I haven't been listening to the pundits and talking head and haven't even read too much on this board about everyone's "opinion" but this I believe is key to the game. The OL that plays better will most likely win the game! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steptide Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, JV14 said: Isaiah McKenzie boarding the plane for KC today. I'm more impressed that the sun is shining in Buffalo and it looks like Antarctica here in Rochester 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 (edited) 8 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said: I haven't been listening to the pundits and talking head and haven't even read too much on this board about everyone's "opinion" but this I believe is key to the game. The OL that plays better will most likely win the game! At a high level, most games do come down to winning in the trenches. Which the Bills did last week. Edited January 23, 2021 by YoloinOhio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColoradoBills Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said: At a high level, most games do come down to winning in the trenches. Which the Bills did last week. Agree, and with both teams with high potent offenses the team that pass blocks better will have a big advantage. Football for me comes down to basic facts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jkeerie Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 18 minutes ago, Georgia Bill said: I still don't care what the talking heads say before or after. Not sure why it bothers people. The negative talk actually probably helps inspire the Bills. Oh...I totally agree. I guess I'm just astonished that after the season the Bills had...going 13-3 against one of the toughest schedules in the league...how little respect the team gets on the whole. I also agree that it fuels the team even more...especially the defense. I guess they all have a preconceived notion of how the NFL is supposed to be, and the Bills success this year doesn't fit in with that narrative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Ferguson Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jkeerie Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just saw online that Breeland is out of the concussion protocol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mango Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, jkeerie said: Just saw online that Breeland is out of the concussion protocol. He’s off the injury report entirely and is playing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Giuseppe Tognarelli Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said: Allen needs to know where Matthieu is at all times So damn frustrating. I don't know why every defense doesn't play this way... It's Allen's and pretty much every QB's kryptonite. Every yard is hard and everything is unpredictable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said: So damn frustrating. I don't know why every defense doesn't play this way... It's Allen's and pretty much every QB's kryptonite. Every yard is hard and everything is unpredictable. They haven’t been an elite defense all year and aren’t about to change now. Plays will be made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said: So damn frustrating. I don't know why every defense doesn't play this way... It's Allen's and pretty much every QB's kryptonite. Every yard is hard and everything is unpredictable. Because it’s easier said than done 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zerovoltz Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Zero, almost every team in the league runs the majority of their offensive plays from 3 WR sets. There are 4 that don't: BAL CLE MIN SF and TEN. As a response, almost every team in the league now runs close to half of their defensive plays from nickel. That was true in 2019 and while 2020 stats not out for the public yet, I expect the trend has continued. I expect that the same is true of KC, regardless of who they're playing. You'd have to show me the data on the pass success rate and % of base defense for KC to back this up. Do you have data on this or is it TLAR eyeball stuff? My perception of Spags is that he prefers to be aggressive with the blitz. For teams that have the hosses to counter, quick passes to RBs and TE and YAC come along with that. The bottom line is: KC overall is 19th in YPA against the pass. Those ain't all TE and RB racking up those yards. I think you give up a good amount of yards against WR sometimes, no matter what D you're in. But you play the personnel on your schedule, and you played this season against teams with a lot of good pass catching backs and TE. Buffalo does not play more 3WR sets than anyone in the league. "More 3 and 4 WR sets than anyone in the league" is a trending towards specious because there are only 2 teams which play >10% 4WR sets, so it's like saying "Buffalo plays more 3 and 4 WR than Arizona" which is like "Well durr" because they're more of a running team and play a lot of 2-1. I would actually be surprised if the Bills play much 4WR sets with us being so banged up at WR, but it's Daboll so you never know. But I doubt he'll be scheming much to get KC into base D because "dance with who brung ya". It wouldn't surprise me if we saw attempts to get you into dime, then run. How's your dime against the run? Here are data on offensive formations. click to embiggen. (the same websites defensive formation data appear to be messed up.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 47 minutes ago, balln said: isiah mckenzie with the outift of the year.....matching tropical shirt and shorts Micah Hyde: "I hate that guy" 🤣 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 12 minutes ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said: So damn frustrating. I don't know why every defense doesn't play this way... It's Allen's and pretty much every QB's kryptonite. Every yard is hard and everything is unpredictable. It's a risk-reward thing. If the offense recognizes what you're doing and schemes for it, it invites coverage breakdowns and mismatches. 7 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said: I can't possibly have left you speechless. And yet.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zerovoltz Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 ....I am not unaware that most teams are in Nickel etc more often than not. So to back up what I am saying....https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/target-rate-by-position--def-.html KC has 4th best success rate VS WR regardless of D on field. KC is 29th VS TE and 26th VS RB. Again, regardless of D on field. As percentage of targets, teams targeted WR only 56% of the time wich was the lowest in the NFL....Buffalo is close as teams only targeted WR 57% of the time.....indicates a good secondary. The team(s) that gave the Chiefs fits this year...especially the Raiders...throw to TE and RB alot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Straight Hucklebuck Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 17 minutes ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said: So damn frustrating. I don't know why every defense doesn't play this way... It's Allen's and pretty much every QB's kryptonite. Every yard is hard and everything is unpredictable. Then go (5) wide, someone will be open. You can disguise all you want, their 4th and 5th corner can’t cover McKenzie or Davis. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zerovoltz Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 @Hapless Bills Fan If you read into those stats more....you see Buffalo has an even better pass D VS WR than KC does....however, the difference maker for KC is Kelce. Buffalo had 25% of their opponents targets go to TE...that was tied for highest with a couple other teams...and as you see the Bills have a poor success rate VS TE (makes sense that teams would target the TE vs a team that isn't good at stopping the TE) ..... Kelce is what gives KC the advantage in the game. He is a big part of what makes KC dangerous....if you stop the WRs with two deep zone etc....you aren't stopping Kelce...if you dedicated 2 guys to stopping Kelce, Mahomes is going to find the open target elsewhere......couple that with your lack of a 4 man pass rush....that is advantage KC. It's why I have KC winning the game. All other things being equal...TE is decidedly not equal here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said: @Hapless Bills Fan If you read into those stats more....you see Buffalo has an even better pass D VS WR than KC does....however, the difference maker for KC is Kelce. Buffalo had 25% of their opponents targets go to TE...that was tied for highest with a couple other teams...and as you see the Bills have a poor success rate VS TE (makes sense that teams would target the TE vs a team that isn't good at stopping the TE) ..... Kelce is what gives KC the advantage in the game. He is a big part of what makes KC dangerous....if you stop the WRs with two deep zone etc....you aren't stopping Kelce...if you dedicated 2 guys to stopping Kelce, Mahomes is going to find the open target elsewhere......couple that with your lack of a 4 man pass rush....that is advantage KC. It's why I have KC winning the game. All other things being equal...TE is decidedly not equal here. Is the poor success rate weighted more toward teams that feature multiple TEs (ie Indy)? I believe it is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mango Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Man, I watched Bills tickets drop earlier today. Down to about $450 ea. I have the points to cover a last minute flight. I was greedily hoping they’d get under $400 and pull the trigger. They’re pushing back up to over $600 now. Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CommonCents Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said: @Hapless Bills Fan If you read into those stats more....you see Buffalo has an even better pass D VS WR than KC does....however, the difference maker for KC is Kelce. Buffalo had 25% of their opponents targets go to TE...that was tied for highest with a couple other teams...and as you see the Bills have a poor success rate VS TE (makes sense that teams would target the TE vs a team that isn't good at stopping the TE) ..... Kelce is what gives KC the advantage in the game. He is a big part of what makes KC dangerous....if you stop the WRs with two deep zone etc....you aren't stopping Kelce...if you dedicated 2 guys to stopping Kelce, Mahomes is going to find the open target elsewhere......couple that with your lack of a 4 man pass rush....that is advantage KC. It's why I have KC winning the game. All other things being equal...TE is decidedly not equal here. I have given you credit over the past year or so for some good posts even though KC biased. Your point above is fair, I do think you will be surprised how fast and intense the Bills are playing tomm. That will be the difference. If I’m wrong I will be here to eat those words. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magox Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, Mango said: Man, I watched Bills tickets drop earlier today. Down to about $450 ea. I have the points to cover a last minute flight. I was greedily hoping they’d get under $400 and pull the trigger. They’re pushing back up to over $600 now. Ugh When you are about to make decisions like that and you are within $50 or so you got to pull the trigger. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zerovoltz Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said: Is the poor success rate weighted more toward teams that feature multiple TEs (ie Indy)? I believe it is. it covers only the regular season.....in wich you didn't play indy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mango Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, Magox said: When you are about to make decisions like that and you are within $50 or so you got to pull the trigger. Yeah, realizing that now. Thanks for rubbing it in. Haha 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zerovoltz Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 13 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said: Then go (5) wide, someone will be open. You can disguise all you want, their 4th and 5th corner can’t cover McKenzie or Davis. ....KC would LOVE for the Bills to go 5 wide.....because we do have 4th and 5th corners that can cover. Someting esle to watch for....Honey Badger led the leauge in passer rating when covering the slot reciever..... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zerovoltz Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Breaking this down even more.... These are only stats from the KC/BUF game earlier this year. Buffalo targeted WR on 84% of their pass plays in that game for a 48% success rate and an average of only 4.9 yards. In that game, KC only 46% of their targets went to WR...35% to RB and the other 19% to RB. Buffalo not having a TE or RB threat in the passing game plays to KC's strengths on D....and the Bills inability to cover TE....plays into why Kelce is a huge difference in this game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zow2 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Both of the Bills Jets to KC have taken off. it’s on! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEBranch Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, zow2 said: Both of the Bills Jets to KC have taken off. it’s on! Is it lame that I think it is so cool to watch a couple of blue blips on a map? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
starrymessenger Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I think the Bills will pick their poison by doubling Kelce and Hill and take their chances with Hardman and with the Chiefs running game. They will give KC the running game, like in the earlier matchup, because thats not what the Chiefs do best. When I say double Kelce and Hill (and more Kelce than Hill IMO) I dont mean to say that they will make their intentions obvious or do it all the time. Obviously they will cheat and sometimes flat out guess depending upon the situation, but I expect them to be aggressive. They will at the same time selectively bring pressure to make it more difficult for PM to find his second or third read. if PMs mobility is compromised that will greatly help Frazier & Co. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zerovoltz Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 13 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said: So....if you go back and look at that game again.....the Bills ran 10 personel 16 times that game. HALF of those were in the 4th Q trailing late. Sounds like a good plan. KC has the guys to cover that...I hope the Bills run 10 personell the whole game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnnycage46 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Ole Gary can't find anyone to chat with about his team so he comes here. Love it lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zerovoltz Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Johnnycage46 said: Ole Gary can't find anyone to chat with about his team so he comes here. Love it lol. I can't think of a better place or better group of people to chat about a Chiefs/Bill AFCCG. I love it too! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocket94 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I am sick of hearing about the Chiefs. I like that the Bills are going about business quietly. Go in there and punch these A-Holes in the mouth! Go Bills! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pokebball Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 28 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said: ....KC would LOVE for the Bills to go 5 wide.....because we do have 4th and 5th corners that can cover. Someting esle to watch for....Honey Badger led the leauge in passer rating when covering the slot reciever..... We'll see tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 15 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said: So....if you go back and look at that game again.....the Bills ran 10 personel 16 times that game. HALF of those were in the 4th Q trailing late. Sounds like a good plan. KC has the guys to cover that...I hope the Bills run 10 personell the whole game. Not sure I am following you here. Are you saying the Chiefs were playing off and soft in the 4th quarter of the week 6 game? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts