Why is everyone a draft expert????

[Billsfan1972]

I watch college football, not religiously mind you.  I see some players that look like they will be stars, but frankly am no scout.

 

So the Bills draft Allen and all I care is that it is a QB with the 7th pick and yes expect him to be the "Franchise" QB.

 

I expect growing pains and wanted him in early to learn.

 

Of course wasn't a fan of McD and the Offensive teardown and his keen eye for professional QB talent (Peterman).  

 

What amazes me though about Josh is three years in and now three great, great games & the narrative is only slowly changing.  For Lamar it changed very quickly, but some national talking heads continue to deride Josh Allen based on what I bet less then 5% even saw from his College days (i.e. inaccuracy).    

 

I never saw him in college and was thrilled Peterman was the bust we expected him to be and thus Josh was thrust in almost immediately.  He played like a rookie year one with no talent around him, improved in year two with an undersized receiving core and coaching that was intent to pump the breaks once the offence scored 14 points (and shut down after 20).

 

The point is almost no one saw him in college and he is still being judged by his college days and year one with a lousy offense around him.

 

Only a few even know about the # of comebacks he's engineered.

 

 

Edited September 29, 2020 by Billsfan1972

[hemma]

5th round picks can become busts?

 

 

[BrotherChazz]

As a fan base, it’s time to move on from this line of thinking. Josh is showing who he is. He doesn’t care what the pundits are saying, so why should we?
 

I’ll always take the underdog mentality anytime the “experts” want to offer it. I don’t care about their respect. I just care about W’s.

[4_kidd_4]

2021 mock drafts or gtfo.

[Billsfan1972]

5 minutes ago, hemma said:

5th round picks can become busts?

 

 

He was thrust into a playoff scenario (SD or were they already LA) and was the starter in 2018.😜

[teef]

i'm just not happy unless i see 300 hard games .  win or lose.

[CommonCents]

3 minutes ago, 4_kidd_4 said:

2021 mock drafts or gtfo.

Lawrence

Chase

 

[Billsfan1972]

Just now, teef said:

i'm just not happy unless i see 300 hard games .  win or lose.

I'll take more of them.  

 

Missing those 17-14 barnburners????

 

Want another 48 game drought?

[Buffalo_Stampede]

19 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I watch college football, not religiously mind you.  I see some players that look like they will be stars, but frankly am no scout.

 

So the Bills draft Allen and all I care is that it is a QB with the 7th pick and yes expect him to be the "Franchise" QB.

 

I expect growing pains and wanted him in early to learn.

 

Of course wasn't a fan of McD and the Offensive teardown and his keen eye for professional QB talent (Peterman).  

 

What amazes me though about Josh is three years in and now three great, great games & the narrative is only slowly changing.  For Lamar it changed very quickly, but some national talking heads continue to deride Josh Allen based on what I bet less then 5% even saw from his College days (i.e. inaccuracy).    

 

I never saw him in college and was thrilled Peterman was the bust we expected him to be and thus Josh was thrust in almost immediately.  He played like a rookie year one with no talent around him, improved in year two with an undersized receiving core and coaching that was intent to pump the breaks once the offence scored 14 points (and shut down after 20).

 

The point is almost no one saw him in college and he is still being judged by his college days and year one with a lousy offense around him.

 

Only a few even know about the # of comebacks he's engineered.

 

 

No wants to prove themselves wrong. So people will push the narrative that makes them look right until they can't anymore.

 

Allen just has to keep doing what he's doing. Let's stop worrying about these things and just worry about Allen continuing his play. 

[RochesterRob]

  Why is everyone a draft expert?  It's an outlet for blowhards for one reason.  Being or following a draft expert is a way to pass the time.  Even if a person's time is more valuable than that.  Another reason we have so many draft experts now is landline phones are just about extinct so people can no longer safely make prank calls.  It's a hobby and sometimes a job where a person can be wrong most of the time without consequences unlike being a stock broker or futures analyst.

[Virgil]

Do you realize the success rate of QB's in the NFL overall, let alone guys who come out of small schools with huge accuracy issues?  Allen was the definition of a project QB.

 

For every Josh Allen, you have way more guys who didn't eventually pull it all together. 

[Billsfan1972]

4 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Do you realize the success rate of QB's in the NFL overall, let alone guys who come out of small schools with huge accuracy issues?  Allen was the definition of a project QB.

 

For every Josh Allen, you have way more guys who didn't eventually pull it all together. 

As said I'm not a draft expert and expect the teams scouts to have made a proper pick.....  He was 7th overall.....

 

And again back to the actual thread.

[Thurman#1]

48 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I watch college football, not religiously mind you.  I see some players that look like they will be stars, but frankly am no scout.

 

So the Bills draft Allen and all I care is that it is a QB with the 7th pick and yes expect him to be the "Franchise" QB.

 

I expect growing pains and wanted him in early to learn.

 

Of course wasn't a fan of McD and the Offensive teardown and his keen eye for professional QB talent (Peterman).  

 

What amazes me though about Josh is three years in and now three great, great games & the narrative is only slowly changing.  For Lamar it changed very quickly, but some national talking heads continue to deride Josh Allen based on what I bet less then 5% even saw from his College days (i.e. inaccuracy).    

 

I never saw him in college and was thrilled Peterman was the bust we expected him to be and thus Josh was thrust in almost immediately.  He played like a rookie year one with no talent around him, improved in year two with an undersized receiving core and coaching that was intent to pump the breaks once the offence scored 14 points (and shut down after 20).

 

The point is almost no one saw him in college and he is still being judged by his college days and year one with a lousy offense around him.

 

Only a few even know about the # of comebacks he's engineered.

 

 

 

 

Actually, I think most have been right on target through most of it. A few have been too negative. A few too positive. Most have been in the right neighborhood, which is that he was improving but in the end might or might not improve enough to be a franchise guy.

 

The reason the narrative is changing is because Josh has made a huge and sudden leap upwards. The narrative should change when that happens. You say it's slowly changing and that appears very wrong to me. It's changed very rapidly over the course of three weeks.

 

 

 

 

9 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

As said I'm not a draft expert and expect the teams scouts to have made a proper pick.....  He was 7th overall.....

 

And again back to the actual thread.

 

 

Do you realize the success rate of QBs drafted in the top ten? Throw out the overall #1s, because Allen wasn't one, and because they're the most likely to succeed. They succeed at a higher rate than those not drafted #1 overall. Look at the success rate of QBs drafted #2 to #10. It is below 50%. So you can expect teams to make the proper picks if you want, but in reality that's not generally the way it works out over time. 

Edited September 29, 2020 by Thurman#1

[teef]

31 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I'll take more of them.  

 

Missing those 17-14 barnburners????

 

Want another 48 game drought?

i don't care about 48 game droughts without a 300 yard passer.  i'm only concerned with a win...like an adult would be.

[Billsfan1972]

4 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Actually, I think most have been right on target through most of it. A few have been too negative. A few too positive. Most have been in the right neighborhood, which is that he was improving but in the end might or might not improve enough to be a franchise guy.

 

The reason the narrative is changing is because Josh has made a huge and sudden leap upwards. The narrative should change when that happens. You say it's slowly changing and that appears very wrong to me. It's changed very rapidly over the course of three weeks.

I disagree, many still holding on the the old narrative (and bet most never saw a single college game he played). 

 

How else too after 411 yards does PFF have him rated 12th last week.  

 

What was he rated this week?

1 minute ago, teef said:

i don't care about 48 game droughts without a 300 yard passer.  i'm only concerned with a win...like an adult would be.

You never stop......  You mean they went 48-0 through that time frame?  

 

You mean none of the losses would have been a win if the Bills were capable of throwing for 300+ yards?

 

This gets old....  Oldmanfan anywhere around?

[teef]

7 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

 

You never stop......  You mean they went 48-0 through that time frame?  

 

You mean none of the losses would have been a win if the Bills were capable of throwing for 300+ yards?

 

This gets old....  Oldmanfan anywhere around?

let's just review.  you said you'd rather see a 300 yard game than a win...did you not?  

[Thurman#1]

 

9 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I disagree, many still holding on the the old narrative (and bet most never saw a single college game he played). 

 

How else too after 411 yards does PFF have him rated 12th last week.  

 

 

 

 

Um, so is PFF "many"? I would call it one internet source. You say "many" are still holding on to the old narrative, and yet you only show one. Show me, say, 10 sources still holding onto the old narrative, OK? Then I'll start to be convinced there are "many." As for now, you've got one.

 

And, most people weren't judging him by his college performance. During and after his first year that's what they mostly looked at. But his 52% completion rate wasn't about to inspire confidence. After his second year he was mostly judged by that. He'd improved significantly but was still below 59%. And yeah, if you adjusted his drops to average, his %age went above 60% but was still well somewhere around the 36th highest completion percentage last year, which wasn't good. So evaluations got better but remained unconvinced. The way we know people were looking at his most recent performances is that now that he's performing extremely well, the vast majority of opinions have changed quite a bit.

Edited September 29, 2020 by Thurman#1

[Albany,n.y.]

20 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Do you realize the success rate of QB's in the NFL overall, let alone guys who come out of small schools with huge accuracy issues?  Allen was the definition of a project QB.

 

For every Josh Allen, you have way more guys who didn't eventually pull it all together. 

That's why it's so easy for the Negative Nancys to say they hate the choice of the QB taken in the 1st round.  Then if the guy is EJ or JP they can say "I told you so" for the next few years.  I'd rather support the team's choice and hope they were right.  Unless the guy is Peyton Manning it's almost impossible for the average fan to predict the greats vs the busts.  A good example is Josh Rosen.  I didn't see anyone on the days near the draft predicting the guy would be clearing waivers after 2 seasons and nobody would want him on their active roster.  Also in the year P. Manning was drafted a lot of people thought Leaf was the best QB in that draft.  The advantage the teams have is they actually talk with these players.  The Bills saw the desire and attitude that would drive Josh Allen that none of us could see or hear.  At this time it appears they made a wise choice, but even with all the advantages the teams have in evaluating these guys over us, they still get it wrong on 1st round QBs a lot, but if you look at the starting QBs, the majority were 1st rounders so the teams have to swing for the fences in the 1st round and hope they get a Manning & not a Leaf. 

[GunnerBill]

18 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I disagree, many still holding on the the old narrative (and bet most never saw a single college game he played). 

 

How else too after 411 yards does PFF have him rated 12th last week.  

 

 

Don't know what he was graded as this week by PFF but as of now through three weeks he is their 9th highest graded Quarterback. That will likely end up being 8th though because Lamar is one spot ahead of him and his grade from last night is not yet in, which will almost certainly lower him.

[Brennan Huff]

Everybody is entitled to their opinion, no matter how wrong it is

[GunnerBill]

11 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

 

 

Um, so is PFF "many"? I would call it one internet source. You say "many" are still holding on to the old narrative, and yet you only show one. Show me, say, 10 sources still holding onto the old narrative, OK? Then I'll start to be convinced there are "many." As for now, you've got one.

 

And, most people weren't judging him by his college performance. During and after his first year that's what they mostly looked at. But his 52% completion rate wasn't about to inspire confidence. After his second year he was mostly judged by that. He'd improved significantly but was still below 59%. And yeah, if you adjusted his drops to average, his %age went above 60% but was still well somewhere around the 36th highest completion percentage last year, which wasn't good. So evaluations got better but remained unconvinced. The way we know people were looking at his most recent performances is that now that he's performing extremely well, the vast majority of opinions have changed quite a bit.

 

This is nail on the head Thurm. I said it 2 weeks ago I say it again... forget chips on shoulders.... some of this fanbase has the whole sack of potatoes.

[416BillsFan]

It was an incorrect, but not unreasonable take at the time to think Allen would be a bust. Yes he had the tools, but how many quarterbacks that raw have been developed the way he has by his teams? How were people to know how committed he would be in the future to working diligently each off-season to get better? The problem is with some not admitting their mistake (as I did, but no one would ever confuse me for a draft expert, nor would I claim to be), explain how he defied their expectations and moving on. To pretend they're still right and this is some kind of mirage, or that his success is solely due to this weapons, only serves to deteriorate their credibility in the future.

[Billsfan1972]

45 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

 

 

Um, so is PFF "many"? I would call it one internet source. You say "many" are still holding on to the old narrative, and yet you only show one. Show me, say, 10 sources still holding onto the old narrative, OK? Then I'll start to be convinced there are "many." As for now, you've got one.

 

And, most people weren't judging him by his college performance. During and after his first year that's what they mostly looked at. But his 52% completion rate wasn't about to inspire confidence. After his second year he was mostly judged by that. He'd improved significantly but was still below 59%. And yeah, if you adjusted his drops to average, his %age went above 60% but was still well somewhere around the 36th highest completion percentage last year, which wasn't good. So evaluations got better but remained unconvinced. The way we know people were looking at his most recent performances is that now that he's performing extremely well, the vast majority of opinions have changed quite a bit.

Bomani, Foxworth, Keyshawn didn't say one positive thing when Orlovsky said Allen in the MVP conversation.  Has Lombardi stepped back yet?  Bill Simmons & Cousin Sal also were meh about it (and have laughed in the past about Josh).  Heck yesterday's Around the Horn's first conversation was about the PI, which to me was pretty obvious & not what one would call a lead story.  Usually one panelist would have turned it into what a smart play by the Qb throwing it to the receiver being held or then talking about his performance.  But no.....

 

Plenty of skepticism still and wait til he has a sub-par game (or makes a bad decision) & watch the knives come out.

 

BTW his #2 receiver didn't play 2/3rds of the game.  

 

 

[JMF2006]

I watch the combine...that stop watch doesn't lie  

[JMF2006]

44 minutes ago, Brennan Huff said:

Everybody is entitled to their opinion, no matter how wrong it is

 

And everyone is entitled to change it....my Chiropractor is a Fins fan and he did a complete about face after Josh 's performance against the Rams

 

He thought he was only fools gold after beating the Jets and Fins but after this week he says he is legit and the best QB out of that draft class 

[ProcessYaDigg]

12 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Bomani, Foxworth, Keyshawn didn't say one positive thing when Orlovsky said Allen in the MVP conversation.  Has Lombardi stepped back yet?  Bill Simmons & Cousin Sal also were meh about it (and have laughed in the past about Josh).  Heck yesterday's Around the Horn's first conversation was about the PI, which to me was pretty obvious & not what one would call a lead story.  Usually one panelist would have turned it into what a smart play by the Qb throwing it to the receiver being held or then talking about his performance.  But no.....

 

Plenty of skepticism still and wait til he has a sub-par game (or makes a bad decision) & watch the knives come out.

 

BTW his #2 receiver didn't play 2/3rds of the game.  

 

 

I see what your deal is.  You're watching ESPN.  They have terrible analysts.  

[Thurman#1]

 

 

 

50 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Bomani, Foxworth, Keyshawn didn't say one positive thing when Orlovsky said Allen in the MVP conversation.  Has Lombardi stepped back yet?  Bill Simmons & Cousin Sal also were meh about it (and have laughed in the past about Josh).  Heck yesterday's Around the Horn's first conversation was about the PI, which to me was pretty obvious & not what one would call a lead story.  Usually one panelist would have turned it into what a smart play by the Qb throwing it to the receiver being held or then talking about his performance.  But no.....

 

Plenty of skepticism still and wait til he has a sub-par game (or makes a bad decision) & watch the knives come out.

 

BTW his #2 receiver didn't play 2/3rds of the game.  

 

 

 

 

First, telling what Romani, Foxworth and Keyshawn DIDN'T say does absolutely nothing for your argument. What DID they say? Let's hear exact words. 

 

Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal were "Meh"? Well, that's clear as mud. What did they say? 

 

You said:

 

1 hour ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I disagree, many still holding on the the old narrative

 

... and yet so far you've produced exactly one. 

 

Let's hear the specifics. If there are "many" it ought to be easy to find ten, a fairly small number. But let's hear the specifics of what they say. 

 

Being "meh" about something unspecific someone said isn't "holding onto the old narrative." Should be easy to find ten if there are "many" out there.

Edited September 29, 2020 by Thurman#1

[HOUSE]

The guy has never passed for 500 yards, not once...

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Don't know what he was graded as this week by PFF but as of now through three weeks he is their 9th highest graded Quarterback. That will likely end up being 8th though because Lamar is one spot ahead of him and his grade from last night is not yet in, which will almost certainly lower him.

 

 

Ah ha.

[TigerJ]

Is the OP referring to media when referring to so called draft experts?  In any case, there are all kinds of opinions among media and fans alike, and among NFL scouts and GMs as well for that matter.  As far as Nate Peterson is concerned, I don't think the Bills ever figured him to be a sure fire franchise QB.  He was a smart QB with limited arm talent, who had success in college.  I think his ceiling was regarded as limited starter or decent backup.  What no one foresaw, nor really could have foreseen was his tendency to have brain cramps every time he stepped on the field in NFL regular season games.  That's something he might eventually fix, but there's only so long you can have patience with a fatal flaw like that.

 

My opinion of Josh Allen from the first moment I read up on him was that he had an intriguing skill set and athleticism but was severely underdeveloped.  I was not unhappy the Bills drafted him when Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold were off the board.  I had no idea if he would develop but I really thought if he developed in a way where he could use the full potential of his skill set, he could be elite.  That was not due to expertise in the draft.  Everything I have in terms of knowledge is second and third hand.  I read what others know and think.  Then I formulate my own opinions, but those opinions are never so set in stone that I feel I can't change them.

 

As far as Josh Allen in the present is concerned, I'm thrilled with what I'm seeing, but I think there is still some unrealized potential.  He still occasionally falls into the "hero ball" trap.  There are times when he needs to throw the ball away rather than risk a sack or an interception.  If he never fixes that, I'm still happy he's my QB, but I think if he does fix it, he can be one of the great ones.

[Billsfan1972]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Don't know what he was graded as this week by PFF but as of now through three weeks he is their 9th highest graded Quarterback. That will likely end up being 8th though because Lamar is one spot ahead of him and his grade from last night is not yet in, which will almost certainly lower him.

9th????  I'm sure that 350 page manual will still have Lamar higher.  Okay Wilson, Mahomes, Rodgers, probably media darling Kyler Murray & Dak????  Really how he isn't 4th at worst is beyond me.

[GunnerBill]

13 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

9th????  I'm sure that 350 page manual will still have Lamar higher.  Okay Wilson, Mahomes, Rodgers, probably media darling Kyler Murray & Dak????  Really how he isn't 4th at worst is beyond me.

 

So the QBs above him are:

 

Rodgers; Wilson; Mahomes; Goff; Prescott; Brady; Rivers. And interestingly it is Allen's rushing grade that is dragging him down.... which considering he has lost three fumbles is probably not that surprising. As has been said many times before their "manual" like it or not really treats turnovers harshly. Purely on passing grades they have Allen graded as the 6th best Quarterback in the league behind Rodgers; Wilson; Mahomes and Brady...... four guys who could pretty much retire TODAY and go into the HoF in 5 years and Jared Goff. 

 

Oh the disrespect!!  

 

Go sharpen the pitch fork. 

[Rc2catch]

1 hour ago, HOUSE said:

The guy has never passed for 500 yards, not once...

Bust 

[Rico]

The late, great Joel Buchsbaum is the only on-line/ print person I ever trusted when it came to evaluating NFL talent. Everyone since then is pretty meh.

[PromoTheRobot]

The "experts" are almost as bad. Look at the QBs who are leading the league right now. They touted Trubitsky, Darnold and Rosen as the most "NFL ready" while Mahomes, Jackson, Watson, and of course Josh Allen had asterisks next to their names to varying degrees.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

I watch the QB combine and that's it

 

If you play the game of "watch me privately", you go to the bottom of my list and I call you a blockhead.  Sam Darnold. 

 

If you are off target, Lamar Jackson, you go to the bottom of my list.

 

If you have a video of you running from police and subsequently getting tackled, Baker Mayfield, you go to the bottom of my list.

 

[Billsfan1972]

Brady & Rivers through 3 weeks????  Brady has thrown 3 Ints too.  Dak has lost 2 fumbles too & 2 ints & only 5 TD passes......  Same with Goff 5 TD's 2 Ints......

 

Here's QBR.....  

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/player/_/table/passing/sort/adjQBR/dir/desc

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Brady & Rivers through 3 weeks????  Brady has thrown 3 Ints too.  Dak has lost 2 fumbles too & 2 ints & only 5 TD passes......  Same with Goff 5 TD's 2 Ints......

 

Here's QBR.....  

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/player/_/table/passing/sort/adjQBR/dir/desc

 

QBR is trash too that is no more reliable than a bunch of guys sitting in a room spitballing at PFF. I am not saying the PFF numbers are right or that I agree with them but the point is this incessant "the Bills get no respect" is junk. It's paranoia in the extreme from a fanbase that for some reason has a desperate need to feel disrespected. 

 

You said everyone disrespects Josh Allen. @Thurman#1 called you out on it and you came up with PFF (who have him ranked the 6th best passer in the league through 3 weeks, sure you can argue he should be higher but hardly disrespect) and then a bunch of guys on radio and TV who didn't criticise him but failed in your view to praise him enough. The Bills and Josh Allen are actually getting a lot of really positive coverage out there and yet Bills fans are desperately sifting through trying to find things to be outraged by. It is bizarre behavior.  

[Kwai San]

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Do you realize the success rate of QBs drafted in the top ten? Throw out the overall #1s, because Allen wasn't one, and because they're the most likely to succeed. They succeed at a higher rate than those not drafted #1 overall. Look at the success rate of QBs drafted #2 to #10. It is below 50%. So you can expect teams to make the proper picks if you want, but in reality that's not generally the way it works out over time. 

 

Very well put.....I'd go out on a limb and say quite a bit less than 50%.  Would be interesting to see a stat nerd noodle that one out.  Good take!

 

GO BILLS!

[Billsfan1972]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

QBR is trash too that is no more reliable than a bunch of guys sitting in a room spitballing at PFF. I am not saying the PFF numbers are right or that I agree with them but the point is this incessant "the Bills get no respect" is junk. It's paranoia in the extreme from a fanbase that for some reason has a desperate need to feel disrespected. 

 

You said everyone disrespects Josh Allen. @Thurman#1 called you out on it and you came up with PFF (who have him ranked the 6th best passer in the league through 3 weeks, sure you can argue he should be higher but hardly disrespect) and then a bunch of guys on radio and TV who didn't criticise him but failed in your view to praise him enough. The Bills and Josh Allen are actually getting a lot of really positive coverage out there and yet Bills fans are desperately sifting through trying to find things to be outraged by. It is bizarre behavior.  

Actually that was not the point of the thread. 

 

It was that some people made up their mind about Josh before he played a game in the NFL, much based on College, which most probably never watched him play a game.

 

I said all I cared was the Bills picked him 7th, throw him in, hopefully coach him properly & let's see what he is.   

 

The people still not sold on him are those who decided based on their readings of him prior to the NFL that he was a stretch at #7 and inaccurate. 

 

I have watched every game as a Bill & looked at the cup half full & blamed much on a lousy line, bad to middling receiving corp, way too many dropped passes & a coach who  would seemed to muzzle the offense.