RD 2, Pick 54: DE AJ Epenesa, University of Iowa

[Doc]

3 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

But I read here more than once that he was the rookie who would have gotten the Packers that SB win.....

 

And you swore that the Packers wouldn't even sniff the NFCCG again, so...

[Mango]

17 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

Was having young Shaq Lawson flashbacks watching him rip too far upfield and whip past Mahomes unblocked, missing the sack.

 

I noticed this too. I would have to go back and see if he was actually overpursing or getting bumped off by the OT.

 

I was thinking it might be the reason that they had him line up at RDE and Hughes at LDE so often. Somebody had to keep contain on Mahomes front side because he is a good enough runner. But I didn't get why they didn't just dress Murphy in that case. Granted it is waaaaay more important with Lamar, but it worked well, and Hughes had a great day doing it that way. 

Either way I did notice Epenesa seemed to be in the backfield quite a bit, just never making a play or getting his hands on the QB. 

[C.Biscuit97]

Dude looked so slim out there. Definitely need to be on Buffalo “diet” this off-season. 

[Coach Tuesday]

10 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Dude looked so slim out there. Definitely need to be on Buffalo “diet” this off-season. 

 

Say it - rhymes with Haybin...

[Mr. WEO]

1 minute ago, Doc said:

 

And you swore that the Packers wouldn't even sniff the NFCCG again, so...

 

Yeah I was wrong about that one.  Honestly, I was not expecting Aaron Rodgers to have such a year.  But he certainly put to rest the notion that he needed  some rookie weapon (who was it now? Tee Higgins?)to get back to the NFCC game/SB.

 

Bad 4th Q decisions by him and his coach (not the Packers FO last April) doomed his SB bid.

[CapeBreton]

I think he had the highest body fat percentage of any edge at the combine so he needed to lose some weight. It’s a shame he lost too much weight, I expect he’ll be at the proper weight next season so that should help his progression.

[FireChans]

57 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Yeah I was wrong about that one.  Honestly, I was not expecting Aaron Rodgers to have such a year.  But he certainly put to rest the notion that he needed  some rookie weapon (who was it now? Tee Higgins?)to get back to the NFCC game/SB.

 

Bad 4th Q decisions by him and his coach (not the Packers FO last April) doomed his SB bid.

Maybe if Tee Higgins was hired as HC, he doesn’t kick the game losing FG.

[Doc]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

Yeah I was wrong about that one.  Honestly, I was not expecting Aaron Rodgers to have such a year.  But he certainly put to rest the notion that he needed  some rookie weapon (who was it now? Tee Higgins?)to get back to the NFCC game/SB.

 

Bad 4th Q decisions by him and his coach (not the Packers FO last April) doomed his SB bid.

 

Rodgers was the one clamoring for more receiving help.  I was saying he needed more defensive help after what the 49'ers did to them, figuring they'd still be as good as last year.

[Mr. WEO]

20 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Maybe if Tee Higgins was hired as HC, he doesn’t kick the game losing FG.

 

Maybe Tee would have jogged untouched into the EZ on 3rd and 8 for the tying score....

 

2 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Rodgers was the one clamoring for more receiving help.  I was saying he needed more defensive help after what the 49'ers did to them, figuring they'd still be as good as last year.

 

The receiving helpp was right there on the roster, as was made very obvious this season.  Adams and Tonyan alone accounted for 29TDs--that's 3 more than Rodgers threw last year!  M V-S accounted for another 6.  48 passing TDs.  16 rushing TDs.  Last year the Packers scored 376 points.  This year, 509--a massive 35% increase.....somehow without a rookie weapon!

 

There was no more room for "weapons" on that Offense as it was tearing up the league.

 

As for the Defense, it went from 18th to 9th.  Last year they got beat up in the NFCC game.  This year their D forced 3 picks from Brady in that game.....but in the end, they pissed their chance away with bad decisions that had nothing to do with what transpired on April 25th.

[colin]

7 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

I didn’t (and don’t) even think AJ was the BPA there.

 

i hope i get proven wrong, and he just burst out soon.  he was a 5 star DE (how many of those every year?) and had huge college production, he just measured horribly on the athletic metrics, but sadly i think you are right and he just wasn't a good enough guy.

 

i honestly think if you stick a premier pass rusher on our DL, fix our 2nd cb situation (not a star, just a good guy) add in a top 12 TE (which IMO can be signed for less than what we pay murhpy and kroft combined) and a solid back (and the nfl just seems to be awash in these guys) we walk out of KC w a W.

 

chris simms broke down the game, and said "there is no difference maker in the front 7, diggs is special, and beez is good in his small role".  given our WRs were hurt, and our best rb (who is like JAG level+ at this point) was out, that's a shocking star "star" differential.

 

the more i think about it, since we have this like mesh D where every part has to be in place, and we won like 5 match ups all night (where guys flew buy mahomes cuz they were not confident and were pressing) i don't think our D is anything but a liability unless we can get 1 or 2 actual pain bringers in the front 7.

[FireChans]

39 minutes ago, colin said:

 

i hope i get proven wrong, and he just burst out soon.  he was a 5 star DE (how many of those every year?) and had huge college production, he just measured horribly on the athletic metrics, but sadly i think you are right and he just wasn't a good enough guy.

 

i honestly think if you stick a premier pass rusher on our DL, fix our 2nd cb situation (not a star, just a good guy) add in a top 12 TE (which IMO can be signed for less than what we pay murhpy and kroft combined) and a solid back (and the nfl just seems to be awash in these guys) we walk out of KC w a W.

 

chris simms broke down the game, and said "there is no difference maker in the front 7, diggs is special, and beez is good in his small role".  given our WRs were hurt, and our best rb (who is like JAG level+ at this point) was out, that's a shocking star "star" differential.

 

the more i think about it, since we have this like mesh D where every part has to be in place, and we won like 5 match ups all night (where guys flew buy mahomes cuz they were not confident and were pressing) i don't think our D is anything but a liability unless we can get 1 or 2 actual pain bringers in the front 7.

AJ has zero elite traits that translate at the next level. He has no burst off the line, no great pass rush moves.

 

His ceiling is Shaq Lawson. We don't need more of those guys, we need stars.

[Victory Formation]

23 minutes ago, FireChans said:

AJ has zero elite traits that translate at the next level. He has no burst off the line, no great pass rush moves.

 

His ceiling is Shaq Lawson. We don't need more of those guys, we need stars.

Could be, but regardless of whether Epenesa pans out or not we need a star DE. For now he is making next to nothing. Revisit this in 3 years.

[Mr. WEO]

dud.

[FireChans]

24 minutes ago, Victory Formation said:

Could be, but regardless of whether Epenesa pans out or not we need a star DE. For now he is making next to nothing. Revisit this in 3 years.

It’s not about cap space. It’s about wasting assets. A second and two thirds on DE/RB and they are still our biggest needs. 
 

Gabe Davis was a 4th rounder and already had a brighter future than the rest of those dudes.

[TPS]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

AJ has zero elite traits that translate at the next level. He has no burst off the line, no great pass rush moves.

 

His ceiling is Shaq Lawson. We don't need more of those guys, we need stars.

 I'd say you did alright if you got a guy with the 54th pick who is as good as a guy that was picked at 19.

[Doc]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

The receiving helpp was right there on the roster, as was made very obvious this season.  Adams and Tonyan alone accounted for 29TDs--that's 3 more than Rodgers threw last year!  M V-S accounted for another 6.  48 passing TDs.  16 rushing TDs.  Last year the Packers scored 376 points.  This year, 509--a massive 35% increase.....somehow without a rookie weapon!

 

There was no more room for "weapons" on that Offense as it was tearing up the league.

 

As for the Defense, it went from 18th to 9th.  Last year they got beat up in the NFCC game.  This year their D forced 3 picks from Brady in that game.....but in the end, they pissed their chance away with bad decisions that had nothing to do with what transpired on April 25th.

 

That's all well and good for the regular season and the first playoff game.  But a 1st round pick at WR or on defense might have helped them score more points or limit points against the Bucs.  We don't know.  What he do know for sure, and there's no debate about it, is that Jordan Love did nothing to help the team this year.  And as a result, Rodgers wants out.

[Victory Formation]

28 minutes ago, FireChans said:

It’s not about cap space. It’s about wasting assets. A second and two thirds on DE/RB and they are still our biggest needs. 
 

Gabe Davis was a 4th rounder and already had a brighter future than the rest of those dudes.

Well.. DE isn’t usually a position in which a player dominates in right away. As far as my opinion on Epenesa goes, I think he’s stronger and more athletic than people think. Too early to say he’s a wasted asset when players like Ford, Oliver and Edmunds get pass after pass. 

[Doc]

13 minutes ago, Victory Formation said:

Well.. DE isn’t usually a position in which a player dominates in right away. As far as my opinion on Epenesa goes, I think he’s stronger and more athletic than people think. Too early to say he’s a wasted asset when players like Ford, Oliver and Edmunds get pass after pass. 

 

Way too early.

[FireChans]

31 minutes ago, TPS said:

 I'd say you did alright if you got a guy with the 54th pick who is as good as a guy that was picked at 19.

Shaq Lawson was a mismanagement of assets at 19. That wasn’t a good pick.

 

Besides, his CEILING is Shaq Lawson. His floor is, well, what we saw this year. A whole lot of nothing.

 

This is saying Jimmy Clausen was a good pick because he was better than Jamarcus Russell.

Edited January 29, 2021 by FireChans

[RobbRiddick]

2 hours ago, colin said:

 

 

i honestly think if you stick a premier pass rusher on our DL, fix our 2nd cb situation (not a star, just a good guy) add in a top 12 TE (which IMO can be signed for less than what we pay murhpy and kroft combined) and a solid back (and the nfl just seems to be awash in these guys) we walk out of KC w a W.

 

I like this thinking. Not sure it's enough to beat KC but would definitely make us a lot lot better. Also, with Star back it improves our run D a lot. I know a lot of people don't care for him because he's not a stats guy but there's no doubt we were more solid with him in there. And Oliver should show up more as well.

 

A premier pass rusher could have the same effect on this D as DIggs had on the offense - make everyone else look so much better because teams are having to key on stopping him that it gives guys like Oliver the opportunity to make more plays. 

[whorlnut]

46 minutes ago, Victory Formation said:

Well.. DE isn’t usually a position in which a player dominates in right away. As far as my opinion on Epenesa goes, I think he’s stronger and more athletic than people think. Too early to say he’s a wasted asset when players like Ford, Oliver and Edmunds get pass after pass. 

What passes are you talking about?  There are plenty of shots taken at these guys. 

Edited January 29, 2021 by whorlnut

[Mr. Wonderful]

Physically looks like he doesn't have a position- too big for LB, too small for DE.  Like all 2nd round pics, you roll the dice and hope a guy can play.

[TPS]

33 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Shaq Lawson was a mismanagement of assets at 19. That wasn’t a good pick.

 

Besides, his CEILING is Shaq Lawson. His floor is, well, what we saw this year. A whole lot of nothing.

 

This is saying Jimmy Clausen was a good pick because he was better than Jamarcus Russell.

Almost all draft analysts had Shaq as a R1 pick. Mayock had him at 13 in his top 100 list, so I'm not sure what standard you're using in judging it was not a good pick?

 

As for Epenesa, it's way too early to judge him especially given how the 2020 offseason went.  Personally, I re-watched the second Dolphins game specifically to focus on him and I came away somewhat impressed (I also started a thread on him at that time).  He is much quicker at the lower weight. He got pressure on most of his pass rushes.  If anything, it looks like he is a tad slow off the snap, which I'm sure he can work on.  Again, for the 54th pick, it's very rare to find an edge rusher who is a difference maker. 

 

I think Epenesa will turn out to be a solid piece on the Bills DL, but of course they need a difference maker, and given where they will be picking for awhile, that might be hard to come by in the draft....

 

If anyone is interested, here's a link to that discussion earlier this month:

 

Edited January 29, 2021 by TPS

[Jay_Fixit]

1 hour ago, TPS said:

 I'd say you did alright if you got a guy with the 54th pick who is as good as a guy that was picked at 19.

But the guy who was picked at 19 played like a guy who was picked at 54.

[FireChans]

2 hours ago, TPS said:

Almost all draft analysts had Shaq as a R1 pick. Mayock had him at 13 in his top 100 list, so I'm not sure what standard you're using in judging it was not a good pick?

 

As for Epenesa, it's way too early to judge him especially given how the 2020 offseason went.  Personally, I re-watched the second Dolphins game specifically to focus on him and I came away somewhat impressed (I also started a thread on him at that time).  He is much quicker at the lower weight. He got pressure on most of his pass rushes.  If anything, it looks like he is a tad slow off the snap, which I'm sure he can work on.  Again, for the 54th pick, it's very rare to find an edge rusher who is a difference maker. 

 

I think Epenesa will turn out to be a solid piece on the Bills DL, but of course they need a difference maker, and given where they will be picking for awhile, that might be hard to come by in the draft....

 

If anyone is interested, here's a link to that discussion earlier this month:

 

He wasn’t a good pick because he’s not even on the team anymore and we declined his fifth year option? Hello?

[Green Lightning]

23 hours ago, whorlnut said:

Disagree. Totally disagree. KCs offense is great. They have weapons all over the place. You just can’t stop them no matter how great your defense is. They literally have to crap on themselves for you to beat them. You have to be able to keep up with KC in a shootout, meaning you have to have weapons on offense to match them.

 

Disagree, totally disagree. You need to be able to make a stop a few times a game and slow their roll. You just can't suck. A tough D will slow down KC. We just sucked. 

[whorlnut]

17 minutes ago, Green Lightning said:

Disagree, totally disagree. You need to be able to make a stop a few times a game and slow their roll. You just can't suck. A tough D will slow down KC. We just sucked. 

So now you’ve resorted to mocking since I don’t agree with you. Ok...cool...
 

We are a top ten defense already. Good offenses beat good defenses. Just ask the Rams how their number one defense made out against the packers number one offense. 

Edited January 30, 2021 by whorlnut

[Mr. WEO]

4 hours ago, Doc said:

 

That's all well and good for the regular season and the first playoff game.  But a 1st round pick at WR or on defense might have helped them score more points or limit points against the Bucs.  We don't know.  What he do know for sure, and there's no debate about it, is that Jordan Love did nothing to help the team this year.  And as a result, Rodgers wants out.

 

It wasn't a lack of Defense that prevented them from scoring more points.  The QB and the HC screwed up.

 

There is no D rookie who would, over the course of the year or that game, have changed the outcome.  Any current Defender could have done so.  That wasn't the problem.  Nothing could be more clear after the season the Packers had or the way that game ended.  No cogent argument otherwise exists anymore.

 

What better team with more weapons does Rodgers imagine he's headed to? 

[TPS]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

He wasn’t a good pick because he’s not even on the team anymore and we declined his fifth year option? Hello?

Drafted by the previous regime, yet they did make him an offer. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.palmbeachpost.com/amp/5822358002

[Doc]

19 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

It wasn't a lack of Defense that prevented them from scoring more points.  The QB and the HC screwed up.

 

There is no D rookie who would, over the course of the year or that game, have changed the outcome.  Any current Defender could have done so.  That wasn't the problem.  Nothing could be more clear after the season the Packers had or the way that game ended.  No cogent argument otherwise exists anymore.

 

So you're saying that no rookie could have helped them score more points or prevented points from being scored and that's the best the Packers could have been?  Yeah, that's not even close to being a cogent argument.  That's speculation at best.  The only actual cogent argument is that Love predictably didn't help them at all.

 

19 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

What better team with more weapons does Rodgers imagine he's headed to? 

 

You'd have to ask him.

 

[Richard Noggin]

5 hours ago, Victory Formation said:

Well.. DE isn’t usually a position in which a player dominates in right away. As far as my opinion on Epenesa goes, I think he’s stronger and more athletic than people think. Too early to say he’s a wasted asset when players like Ford, Oliver and Edmunds get pass after pass. 

 

Wait, WHAT? 

 

I'm not seeing a lot of free passes being issued to Cody Ford or Tremaine Edmunds. I'm seeing steady criticism of varying severity. 

 

(I left out Oliver because most people seem to understand that he's already an effective pro, albeit conspicuously underperforming on the stat sheet most games. And that's some of the issue here, a lack of quantifiable, impact plays.)

4 hours ago, Mr. Wonderful said:

Physically looks like he doesn't have a position- too big for LB, too small for DE.  Like all 2nd round pics, you roll the dice and hope a guy can play.

 

3-4 OLB at his current weight. 3-4 DE at his college weight. Kind of a misfit in a 4-3, so far.

 

No matter what, Epenesa will never be "small" by NFL standards. He's long and strong at any weight. 

[Mr. WEO]

43 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

So you're saying that no rookie could have helped them score more points or prevented points from being scored and that's the best the Packers could have been?  Yeah, that's not even close to being a cogent argument.  That's speculation at best.  The only actual cogent argument is that Love predictably didn't help them at all.

 

 

You'd have to ask him.

 

No one is arguing Love helped them this year.  A point not worth making.

 

What drafted player do you imagine would have allowed them to win that game?  Pick one.  
 

Yours falls under the category of the “well, anything can happen” argument.  It proposes that any infinitesimally small chance is greater than zero chance.  As such, It’s a completely unpersuasive argument.

 

Rodgers and LaFleur, and not some imaginary super rookie not drafted, lost that NFCC game doc.

 

I can’t ask Rodgers is headed next (unlikely as it is he’s leaving), so I ask you, since you mentioned it.  Where could he go? 

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, TPS said:

Drafted by the previous regime, yet they did make him an offer. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.palmbeachpost.com/amp/5822358002

He was still a bad pick. 

[MrEpsYtown]

What happened to AJ happens rookie ends sometimes. His major issue is clearly the weight thing. They asked him to come in lighter and he got too light. He should be playing at 270ish. Without OTAs and such, I am guessing they were not able to really see his progress first hand. It sucks, but he will be back to a better weight and be a contributor. There were definitely flashes to his game, but he has to put some of that bulk back on. 

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

What happened to AJ happens rookie ends sometimes. His major issue is clearly the weight thing. They asked him to come in lighter and he got too light. He should be playing at 270ish. Without OTAs and such, I am guessing they were not able to really see his progress first hand. It sucks, but he will be back to a better weight and be a contributor. There were definitely flashes to his game, but he has to put some of that bulk back on. 

 

I agree. I thought he flashed some in the final 6-8 weeks. Really since that Chargers game where I thought he played really well. I don't think the Bills were "trying to turn him into a speed rusher" either as has been speculated here, I think they just felt his body fat needed to come down a bit and turn that into more efficient muscle strength and he just lost a bit too much weight as a result. He is a guy whose body is still a work in progress and I think it is unfair to make any determinative judgment on him as a player until they have that where they want it. 

[machine gun kelly]

6 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

What happened to AJ happens rookie ends sometimes. His major issue is clearly the weight thing. They asked him to come in lighter and he got too light. He should be playing at 270ish. Without OTAs and such, I am guessing they were not able to really see his progress first hand. It sucks, but he will be back to a better weight and be a contributor. There were definitely flashes to his game, but he has to put some of that bulk back on. 

I think you’re right.  They should’ve allowed him to remain in the 270’s and he would’ve been able to penetrate and contain better.  He’s just not the same as a 255 lbs. Hughes.  Epenesa is more like a Phil Hansen type than a light quick burst Hughes.  Hopefully he’ll figure it out in the off season.

[Doc]

10 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

No one is arguing Love helped them this year.  A point not worth making.

 

What drafted player do you imagine would have allowed them to win that game?  Pick one.  
 

Yours falls under the category of the “well, anything can happen” argument.  It proposes that any infinitesimally small chance is greater than zero chance.  As such, It’s a completely unpersuasive argument.

 

Rodgers and LaFleur, and not some imaginary super rookie not drafted, lost that NFCC game doc.

 

I can’t ask Rodgers is headed next (unlikely as it is he’s leaving), so I ask you, since you mentioned it.  Where could he go? 

 

Yeah, a 1st round pick that could have played had a far greater chance of helping the team than one that didn't.  This isn't hard WEO.

[Mr. WEO]

1 minute ago, Doc said:

 

Yeah, a 1st round pick that could have played had a far greater chance of helping the team than one that didn't.  This isn't hard WEO.

 

Helping them do....what?  Not kick that FG.  Would he have shouted to Rodgers:  "Run it in!!"  

 

Looking back, the Packers should never have drafted Rodgers when the Packers were desperate for weapons, had a crappy D and after winning the Div, got blown out in the WC.   lol.  The Pack went into the tank after that, unlike the 2019 Packers, who actually got BETTER in 2020.  

 

No, this isn't hard doc.  Rodgers, not the Love pick, cost them a trip to the SB.  Plain and simple.  No magical rookie you have in mind changes what we all saw.

[Doc]

7 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

Helping them do....what?  Not kick that FG.  Would he have shouted to Rodgers:  "Run it in!!"  

 

Looking back, the Packers should never have drafted Rodgers when the Packers were desperate for weapons, had a crappy D and after winning the Div, got blown out in the WC.   lol.  The Pack went into the tank after that, unlike the 2019 Packers, who actually got BETTER in 2020.  

 

No, this isn't hard doc.  Rodgers, not the Love pick, cost them a trip to the SB.  Plain and simple.  No magical rookie you have in mind changes what we all saw.

 

There were a lot more plays than just that one, and not all of them involved Rodgers.  You know this WEO.

 

I'll stand by my stance that a rookie 1st rounder could have helped a lot more than Love did.  If you want to think that nothing would have changed the outcome, be my guest.

[fansince88]

8 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

What happened to AJ happens rookie ends sometimes. His major issue is clearly the weight thing. They asked him to come in lighter and he got too light. He should be playing at 270ish. Without OTAs and such, I am guessing they were not able to really see his progress first hand. It sucks, but he will be back to a better weight and be a contributor. There were definitely flashes to his game, but he has to put some of that bulk back on. 

Beane mentioned that. Im sure the conversation has been had. He will do what he can to develop in the off season or they will eventually move on. Trusting the process.