The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, B-Man said:

Joe Biden Makes a New Promise and It’s Why You Shouldn’t Vote for Him

 

The reasons to not vote for Joe Biden are fairly long. If you’re a conservative Republican, obviously there are policy considerations that make the choice easy. Do you want the former VP and the “foreign policy establishment” to regain power, instituting yet more disastrous decisions overseas? Economically, do you want higher taxes? Is an empowerment of the left-wing’s most radical elements preferable? What about Biden’s support for abortion until birth, an issue that some in the conservative commentariat tend to ignore these days?

 

These are all valid concerns and things that should absolutely be taken into consideration when judging how you will vote. But if the above policy considerations aren’t enough, Biden said something yesterday that adds to the list of reasons to oppose him.

 

 

I’ll note the media’s continued fetish with destroying the economy and your livelihood, which is what would even prompt a question like that to be asked. But it’s Biden’s answer that really stands out. He says “I would shut it down, I would listen to the scientists” without a hint of what that would actually mean.

 

Let me translate it: Biden is once again admitting that he’s not actually going to be President.

 

More at the link:

Biden has a special dislike ad bad for Cuomo and pelosi.   The country doesn't need to shut down. Small business among other things would hurt them. Democrats are crazy and want more control. More taxes. There nut's.

[dubs]

19 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

Biden has a special dislike ad bad for Cuomo and pelosi.   The country doesn't need to shut down. Small business among other things would hurt them. Democrats are crazy and want more control. More taxes. There nut's.

There a very VERY simple concept that is at the heart of every single democrat/liberal/progressive/ socialist/communist idea:

 

What’s good for the country is bad for the democrats. 

 

 

[BillStime]

Completely deranged

 

 

[LB3]

3 hours ago, Magox said:

Gummi Bear has been one of the best Twitter data analysts when it comes to COVID.   His projections here pretty much line up with what I believe.   I think we will hit new lows in deaths by October sometime and continue to go lower after that for a bit.    The question remains is does cross reactive T cell immunity along with 20% covid antibody truly  create herd-like immunity?  Some believe it doesn’t but the actual evidence suggests that it likely does.  And will we see a resurgence of viral infections throughout suburbs and rural parts of the country in the late fall early winter?

 

 

My rural area (NY) is seeing a bit of a mini surge right now. I'm thinking it's because of college kids returning. A large portion coming from downstate. I am currently quarantined because my golf partner tested positive (asymptomatic). I got my results today and I tested negative but need to remain in quarantine. I had tested positive for antibodies a while back but they made me test anyways.

Edited August 22, 2020 by LB3

[SectionC3]

57 minutes ago, LB3 said:

My rural area (NY) is seeing a bit of a mini surge right now. I'm thinking it's because of college kids returning. A large portion coming from downstate. I am currently quarantined because my golf partner tested positive (asymptomatic). I got my results today and I tested negative but need to remain in quarantine. I had tested positive for antibodies a while back but they made me test anyways.

 

College is a problem.  Schools in general are going to be a problem.  We're playing with fire right now, but unfortunately none of the stakeholders in education is doing anything about it (parents want to warehouse kids, K-12 administrators are paid [indirectly] by parents, and colleges want to make it past the tuition refund date before going virtual).  The fact that we have a byzantine, fractured national response hasn't helped either.  Strong measures in one place (such as New York) aren't nearly as effective as they could be if there were like strong measures in other places (FL and AZ bore this out recently).  So it's probably going to follow 1918 and blow up again in the fall.  And it's a shame, because it's terrible for small business and wastes probably millions of years of collective sacrifice and hard work. 

Edited August 22, 2020 by SectionC3

[BillsFanNC]

4 hours ago, Magox said:

Gummi Bear has been one of the best Twitter data analysts when it comes to COVID.   His projections here pretty much line up with what I believe.   I think we will hit new lows in deaths by October sometime and continue to go lower after that for a bit.    The question remains is does cross reactive T cell immunity along with 20% covid antibody truly  create herd-like immunity?  Some believe it doesn’t but the actual evidence suggests that it likely does.  And will we see a resurgence of viral infections throughout suburbs and rural parts of the country in the late fall early winter?

 

 

 

Interesting.  When we get to October and patients present with symptoms the first thing will be to get a rapid flu test, if negative then covid testing. As a former flu researcher, this is going to be a very, very  interesting flu season.

[Magox]

1 hour ago, BillsFanNC said:

 

Interesting.  When we get to October and patients present with symptoms the first thing will be to get a rapid flu test, if negative then covid testing. As a former flu researcher, this is going to be a very, very  interesting flu season.

My gut tells me that with the social distancing measures and most likely even higher flu vaccine use that cases will be markedly lower than previous years.

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

19 minutes ago, Magox said:

My gut tells me that with the social distancing measures and most likely even higher flu vaccine use that cases will be markedly lower than previous years.

Right magox. Thought about this couple days ago. We both lots similar thinking lol.

[Foxx]

 

AUSTRALIA PRIME MINISTER PUTS CITIZENS ON NOTICE: ALL WILL LIKELY UNDERGO MANDATORY COVID-19 VACCINATIONS

Edited August 22, 2020 by Foxx

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, Foxx said:

That's just awful from them. That's going way too far.

[Foxx]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

That's just awful from them. That's going way too far.

it gets better.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ywuCRVJVDqs&feature=youtu.be

 

[IDBillzFan]

14 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

That's just awful from them. That's going way too far.

 

And yet I don't think it's too far fetched to think the same could happen here.

 

Especially with BIden in the WH.

[Magox]

Deaths are now below 1000 a day with 7 day moving average.  Over the past couple days the pace of decline in deaths have accelerated. 
 

 

[ziltoid]

5 hours ago, SectionC3 said:

 

College is a problem.  Schools in general are going to be a problem.  We're playing with fire right now, but unfortunately none of the stakeholders in education is doing anything about it (parents want to warehouse kids, K-12 administrators are paid [indirectly] by parents, and colleges want to make it past the tuition refund date before going virtual).  The fact that we have a byzantine, fractured national response hasn't helped either.  Strong measures in one place (such as New York) aren't nearly as effective as they could be if there were like strong measures in other places (FL and AZ bore this out recently).  So it's probably going to follow 1918 and blow up again in the fall.  And it's a shame, because it's terrible for small business and wastes probably millions of years of collective sacrifice and hard work. 

Hope you have your covaids bunker stocked up until Nov. 4th!

[SectionC3]

Just now, BeerLeagueHockey said:

Hope you have your covaids bunker stocked up until Nov. 4th!

Funny.  Go to Phoenix and lick some doorknobs and let us know how it goes.  

[Big Blitz]

 

 

[Big Blitz]

 

[TBBills]

The latest on Crazy Trump, saying that "deep state" is holding back the vaccine until after elections. 

 

This guy is getting mentally worse by the day.

[BillsFanNC]

 

[BillsFanNC]

5 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

Interesting and encouraging data from sequence modeling, but with the appropriate grains of salt.

 

The deletion that we describe indicates that SARS-CoV-2 is undergoing profound genomic changes. It is important to: i) confirm the spreading of this particular viral strain, and potentially of strains with other deletions in the nsp1 protein, both in the population of asymptomatic and pauci-symptomatic subjects, and ii) correlate these changes in nsp1 with potential decreased viral pathogenicity.

[Buffalo_Gal]

 

 

 

[BillStime]

 

 

[Q-baby!]

3 minutes ago, BillStime said:

 

 

Yep! Desperate to be the hero before the election. 

[SectionC3]

1 hour ago, Q-baby! said:

Yep! Desperate to be the hero before the election. 

Bingo. No coincidence he did this on Sunday before the nightly news and immediately before he kicks off hate week. 

Edited August 24, 2020 by SectionC3

[Koko78]

2 hours ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

 

 

 

 

In breaking news, Trump officially endorses vampirism, a fascist form of Nazi cruelty. Also, plasma transfusions are no longer good for you. Trump, once again, wants to kill your grandmother.

 

Democrats plan to pass new Articles of Impeachment, because Trump owns $24.86 worth of stock in a company who specializes in providing minimal support services to the newly formed plasma-industrial complex. 186,000 former Obama administration ethics experts claim that Trump is corruptly attempting to enrich himself, and his family, at the expense of the sick and vulnerable.

[RiotAct]

6 minutes ago, SectionC3 said:

Bingo. No coincidence he did this on Sunday before the nightly news and immediately before he kicks off hate week. 

hate week has already come and gone.

[SectionC3]

6 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

hate week has already come and gone.

Hoax.  It starts tomorrow.  

[Big Blitz]

 

 

[shoshin]

If we are following the April pattern and it looks like we are, this or next week would be the week we see deaths drop significantly. 

[SoCal Deek]

3 hours ago, shoshin said:

If we are following the April pattern and it looks like we are, this or next week would be the week we see deaths drop significantly. 

It won’t follow the ‘April’ pattern. It’ll follow the infection pattern, and yes deaths will drop because cases dropped a few weeks ago. People aren’t dying clear out of the blue. They die weeks after getting exposed, infected, treated, sustained and then expire. There’s good news all around. The three states with the biggest infection spike represent the three largest populations in the nation, and yet this recent surge has been way less lethal than the NE infestation last spring. 

Edited August 24, 2020 by SoCal Deek

[shoshin]

6 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

It won’t follow the ‘April’ pattern. It’ll follow the infection pattern, and yes deaths will drop because cases dropped a few weeks ago. People aren’t dying clear out of the blue. They die weeks after getting exposed, infected, treated, sustained and then expire. There’s good news all around. The three states with the biggest infection spike represent the three largest populations in the nation, and yet this recent surge has been way less lethal than the NE infestation last spring. 

 

Agreed. The NE lethality had as much to do with our incomplete knowledge of treatments as it did with the likely higher spike in cases. 

 

I'll just be happy when it starts falling dramatically. Other regions will spike but I don't think any of the high population areas are left to do so (maybe NorCal?). 

Edited August 24, 2020 by shoshin

[B-Man]

 

PRETTY SURE WE’RE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE CURVE NOW: 

 

U.S. COVID-19 cases under 35K for first time in 2 months.

 

 

 

 

 

[SoCal Deek]

3 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

Agreed. The NE lethality had as much to do with our incomplete knowledge of treatments as it did with the likely higher spike in cases. 

 

I'll just be happy when it starts falling dramatically. Other regions will spike but I don't think any of the high population areas are left to do so (maybe NorCal?). 

Agreed all around. Northern California is an outlier for sure....but...the Bay Area has remained in a state of more severe lockdown throughout it all. My company has branch offices in Oakland and Sacramento and neither has reopened since March, whereas our Southern California office reopened on June 1st.

[Magox]

Deaths are at 980 (7 day moving average) off of a high of 1070 from about 12 days ago.

 

Expect the true deaths to follow this trajectory with a 4-6 week lag.   Lots of the deaths that are counted on any given day typically are not from that day but anywhere from days to weeks earlier.  Sort of like backfilling.

 

 

[Buffalo_Gal]

(thread)
 

 

 

[shoshin]

18 minutes ago, Magox said:

Deaths are at 980 (7 day moving average) off of a high of 1070 from about 12 days ago.

 

Expect the true deaths to follow this trajectory with a 4-6 week lag.   Lots of the deaths that are counted on any given day typically are not from that day but anywhere from days to weeks earlier.  Sort of like backfilling.

 

 

 

 

The backfilling is understandable but frustrating. In PA, the "total" deaths lately has often been increasing day-to-day often by 20.

 

But the actuals have only been over 20 one (suspicious-looking from a data anomaly perspective) time in the last 7 weeks.

Edited August 24, 2020 by shoshin

[SoCal Deek]

5 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

The backfilling is understandable but frustrating. In PA, the "total" deaths lately has often been increasing day-to-day often by 20.

 

But the actuals have only been over 20 one time in the last 7 weeks. 

With something as widespread and long lasting as this don’t get hung up on day to day outliers. We now have WAY MORE data than we’ll ever need to see the trends. And speaking of widespread I was watching the European soccer final held in Lisbon yesterday. Yep, no fans, masks on the sidelines, etc. That match is equivalent to our Super Bowl! Maybe bigger. This is NOT a United States problem and certainly NOT a Donald Trump problem.

[IDBillzFan]

5 hours ago, shoshin said:

If we are following the April pattern and it looks like we are, this or next week would be the week we see deaths drop significantly. 

 

The most frustrating part of following Covid data at a high level is that it seems we are ALWAYS one or two weeks away from seeing something significant, only to wake up one or two weeks later to find out that if the new current trend continues for another week or two, we'll see something ELSE that is significant.

 

 

[shoshin]

 

1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

With something as widespread and long lasting as this don’t get hung up on day to day outliers. We now have WAY MORE data than we’ll ever need to see the trends. And speaking of widespread I was watching the European soccer final held in Lisbon yesterday. Yep, no fans, masks on the sidelines, etc. That match is equivalent to our Super Bowl! Maybe bigger. This is NOT a United States problem and certainly NOT a Donald Trump problem.

 

It's a US problem for me! 

 

There's been a leadership failure at many levels. I wouldn't spare too many in the executive mansions in DC or at the state level. 

[Magox]

Hospitalizations throughout much of the country is improving.

 

Looks like most of the second wave is dying down.