The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[BillStime]

Definition of a cult

 

 

[Tiberius]

We have 4 percent of the world’s population and more than 20 percent of the world’s covid-19 deaths.

[Big Blitz]

 

[GG]

4 hours ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

(thread)
 

 

 

 

This is a huge admission by the UK.  Some notable quotes, which parallels what many here were saying in April

 

Quote

 

It was always a temporary measure that simply delayed the stage of the epidemic we see now. It was never going to change anything fundamentally, however low we drove down the number of cases, and now we know more about the virus and how to track it we should not be in this position again.

 

...

 

This is why we need a broader range of people on the government advisory board Sage with equal input from economists to assess the damage to incomes, jobs and livelihoods, educationalists to assess the damage to children and mental health specialists to assess levels of depression and anxiety especially among younger adults, as well as psychologists to assess the effects of not being able to go to the theatre or a football match.

...

I would not dignify waiting for a vaccine with the term ‘strategy’. That’s a hope not a strategy. But we do need to get on with providing an alternative to lockdown.”

He said a better understanding of who was actually at risk from the virus would allow better solutions to be presented. Any restrictions imposed should be “considered measures” and should protect those who needed it while letting everyone live more freely.

 

 

More stories coming out that extended lockdowns are not effective.

 

Quote

 

Five months later, the evidence suggests lockdowns were an overly blunt and economically costly tool. They are politically difficult to keep in place for long enough to stamp out the virus. The evidence also points to alternative strategies that could slow the spread of the epidemic at much less cost. As cases flare up throughout the U.S., some experts are urging policy makers to pursue these more targeted restrictions and interventions rather than another crippling round of lockdowns.

“We’re on the cusp of an economic catastrophe,” said James Stock, a Harvard University economist who, with Harvard epidemiologist Michael Mina and others, is modeling how to avoid a surge in deaths without a deeply damaging lockdown. “We can avoid the worst of that catastrophe by being disciplined,” Mr. Stock said.

 

 

[Big Blitz]

THE CDC JUST SAID TODAY ASYMPTOMATICS ARE NO LONGER THE CONCERN WE THOUGHT THEY WERE.......

 

And thus....neither is the virus.  

 

 

 

 

 

[Gary M]

13 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

 

i blame governor cornholio (cuomo)

[shoshin]

21 minutes ago, GG said:

 

 

More stories coming out that extended lockdowns are not effective.

 

 

 

Good article. Also makes as one of its premises the effectiveness of masks:

 

 

Also agree with this take (the former approach being the one I wished we'd done and still wish we would do):

 

Dr. Mina of Harvard said the U.S. at the outset could have chosen to prioritize the economy, as Sweden did, and accept the deaths, or it could have chosen to fully prioritize health by staying locked down until new infections were so low that testing and tracing could control new outbreaks, as some northeastern states such as Rhode Island did. Most of the U.S. did neither. The result was “a complete disaster. We’re harming the economy, waffling back and forth between what is right, what is wrong with a slow drift of companies closing their doors for good,” Dr. Mina said.

[Gary M]

1 hour ago, Tiberius said:

We have 4 percent of the world’s population and more than 20 percent of the world’s covid-19 deaths.

 

Thanks to governor cornholio (cuomo) who killed 11,000 elderly

[Tiberius]

9 minutes ago, Gary M said:

 

Thanks to governor cornholio (cuomo) who killed 11,000 elderly

Be gone by April 

[Gary M]

10 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Be gone by April 

Big difference between optimism and incompetence. cuomo killed people. Trump saved 1.5 million.

[Magox]

1 hour ago, GG said:

 

This is a huge admission by the UK.  Some notable quotes, which parallels what many here were saying in April

 

 

More stories coming out that extended lockdowns are not effective.

 

 

 

 

Every day that passes by, Sweden's strategy looks better and better.  

 

The only thing they should have done differently and they will be the first to admit it is protect the nursing homes much more so than they did.  That has been their only failing.

 

They never wore masks, they had freedom, practiced common sense social distancing measures and allow things to develop.   I have such admiration for what they did, they knew it was going to be very unpopular with the rest of the world and they stuck to their beliefs and allowed the science and data guide their decisions.

 

Now, unlike any of their neighbors they really don't have to worry about any more outbreaks (so it seems) whereas their neighbors do.

[Tiberius]

22 minutes ago, Gary M said:

Big difference between optimism and incompetence. cuomo killed people. Trump saved 1.5 million.

Lol ? lol ? 

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

11 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Lol ? lol ? 

Cuomo put sick people with people in nursing homes. President Trump did save people while closed flights to China when things getting started. He helped buy time with knowledge how to treat people better for doctors and other things.

[Taro T]

32 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

 

Every day that passes by, Sweden's strategy looks better and better.  

 

The only thing they should have done differently and they will be the first to admit it is protect the nursing homes much more so than they did.  That has been their only failing.

 

They never wore masks, they had freedom, practiced common sense social distancing measures and allow things to develop.   I have such admiration for what they did, they knew it was going to be very unpopular with the rest of the world and they stuck to their beliefs and allowed the science and data guide their decisions.

 

Now, unlike any of their neighbors they really don't have to worry about any more outbreaks (so it seems) whereas their neighbors do.

 

@Magox was wondering what your thoughts are on Madrid seeming to be having a 2nd spike.  Did not expect that to occur (thought they'd been hit hard enough in their 1st go around to have reached the herd immunity threshold) but you've been looking at this far closer than yours truly.  What seems to be missing here (or, more accurately, there)?

[Tiberius]

26 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

Cuomo put sick people with people in nursing homes. President Trump did save people while closed flights to China when things getting started. He helped buy time with knowledge how to treat people better for doctors and other things.

It will be gone by April! 

It is what it is. 

 

Cuomo is popular. Trump, not so much 

[shoshin]

20 minutes ago, Taro T said:

 

@Magox was wondering what your thoughts are on Madrid seeming to be having a 2nd spike.  Did not expect that to occur (thought they'd been hit hard enough in their 1st go around to have reached the herd immunity threshold) but you've been looking at this far closer than yours truly.  What seems to be missing here (or, more accurately, there)?

 

Madrid shut EVERYTHING down hard core. That stopped progression. When they reopened, Covid returned (shocker). 

 

I don't see it as a second spike. More like a continuation IMO. And there's almost no chance they get the same deaths like before this time around because there are much better treatments and a younger demo getting hit.  

 

Several perspectives in this article. One interesting thing is that Spain has a *****-ton (an additional 16,000) of unclassified deaths (likely Covid) so far this year but there's a lot of political pressure around how to classify those. 

 

 

 

Edited August 24, 2020 by shoshin

[Big Blitz]

5 minutes ago, Taro T said:

 

@Magox was wondering what your thoughts are on Madrid seeming to be having a 2nd spike.  Did not expect that to occur (thought they'd been hit hard enough in their 1st go around to have reached the herd immunity threshold) but you've been looking at this far closer than yours truly.  What seems to be missing here (or, more accurately, there)?

 

 

Italy to.  

 

New York has "beaten" the virus yet still sees 600 to 800 cases a day. 

 

Those case numbers should not alarm anyone without context.  As it always should be.  

 

Italy has 265K documented cases.  Out of 60 million people.  Half the cases of California a state that has almost half the population they do.  

 

No one has the testing capacity we do.  And we for some reason thought it a good idea to test everyone then present the data with zero context.  Frightening millions.  

 

The world is many months perhaps years from zero cases.  The question is should we be living 6 feet apart (or 3 if you're in Europe I guess it's not as contagious there) for an indefinite period of time.

 

[Taro T]

1 minute ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

Italy to.  

 

New York has "beaten" the virus yet still sees 600 to 800 cases a day. 

 

Those case numbers should not alarm anyone without context.  As it always should be.  

 

Italy has 265K documented cases.  Out of 60 million people.  Half the cases of California a state that has almost half the population they do.  

 

No one has the testing capacity we do.  And we for some reason thought it a good idea to test everyone then present the data with zero context.  Frightening millions.  

 

The world is many months perhaps years from zero cases.  The question is should we be living 6 feet apart (or 3 if you're in Europe I guess it's not as contagious there) for an indefinite period of time.

 

 

Hadn't seen reports that Milan is seeing a 2nd spike.  Southern Italy was pretty much virus free when Milan was getting pummeled the 1st time. So not surprised cases are increasing overall in Italy.  Would be surprised to see Milan hit again or anything close to the cluster #### they had in March.

13 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

Madrid shut EVERYTHING down hard core. That stopped progression. When they reopened, Covid returned (shocker). 

 

I don't see it as a second spike. More like a continuation IMO. And there's almost no chance they get the same deaths like before this time around because there are much better treatments.  

 

Several perspectives in this article. One interesting thing is that Spain has a *****-ton (an additional 16,000) of unclassified deaths (likely Covid) so far this year but there's a lot of political pressure around how to classify those. 

 

 

 

 

That would make sense.  If they didn't actually get to whatever that threshold (hopefully only ~20%) for herd immunity is before everything shut down then they'll likely get more cases until they reach the magic number.

 

Hoping that's the case, because if herd immunity really comes in at 20% or so of a population being exposed, this won't be nearly as bad as feared moving forward, vaccine or no vaccine.

[Big Blitz]

 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

2 hours ago, Gary M said:

 

Thanks to governor cornholio (cuomo) who killed 11,000 elderly

 

 

...Big Fredo gets honorable mention for letting 8,000 Chinese nationals pass through NYC AFTER Trump enacted the travel ban.....thus NYC served as the "Covid-19 Gateway to the US"......maybe he'll have a chapter in his new book blaming someone else............

[bilzfancy]

2 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

 

...Big Fredo gets honorable mention for letting 8,000 Chinese nationals pass through NYC AFTER Trump enacted the travel ban.....thus NYC served as the "Covid-19 Gateway to the US"......maybe he'll have a chapter in his new book blaming someone else............

Who's stupid idea is it to not let fans watch the Bills at Bills Stadium??

[Magox]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

 

@Magox was wondering what your thoughts are on Madrid seeming to be having a 2nd spike.  Did not expect that to occur (thought they'd been hit hard enough in their 1st go around to have reached the herd immunity threshold) but you've been looking at this far closer than yours truly.  What seems to be missing here (or, more accurately, there)?

 

I have to be honest with you, that one confounds me a little bit.  I would be very interested in seeing some Seroprevalence studies from before this latest outbreak.   Also, there was an interesting study that came out of Hong Kong that shows that some people are becoming reinfected after about 5 months but the good news is that they have T cell immunities and that they are barely showing symptoms so I wonder if some of that is going on.   Right now at this stage, I just think we need more data to come up with a plausible explanation.

 

I don't really have a good answer till I see a little more.  But, it has sort of made my brain go a little haywire trying to figure that out.

[shoshin]

6 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

I have to be honest with you, that one confounds me a little bit.  I would be very interested in seeing some Seroprevalence studies from before this latest outbreak.   Also, there was an interesting study that came out of Hong Kong that shows that some people are becoming reinfected after about 5 months but the good news is that they have T cell immunities and that they are barely showing symptoms so I wonder if some of that is going on.   Right now at this stage, I just think we need more data to come up with a plausible explanation.

 

I don't really have a good answer till I see a little more.  But, it has sort of made my brain go a little haywire trying to figure that out.

 

If you look at the UK that more or less didn't shut down (sort of a crappy half-shutdown like us) and Sweden, they are not seeing the second rise. UK data shows at most a little bump but not a big spike (so far):

 

 

The shutdown countries, I believe, are just seeing the continuation of their initial wave, which was cut short by the draconian shutdowns. 

 

Or it could be a second wave and we're both wrong and there's not a herd immunity setting in long term. Time will tell but I suspect this isn't a second wave as much as a continuation of a wave that got cut off.

 

Deaths are not rising particularly quickly in Spain and Italy, nor would we expect them to do so.  

 

 

Edited August 24, 2020 by shoshin

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

14 minutes ago, bilzfancy said:

Who's stupid idea is it to not let fans watch the Bills at Bills Stadium??

 

...um....er....uh...oh....well....our very own renowned Covid-19 Handbook author Big Fredo.....do some quick sales tax math....say 70,000 in attendance at avg ticket of $60 bucks...Erie Co is 8.75%....$367,500 in lost revenue...say each fan spends $10 bucks at concessions....another $61,250.....$428,750 in sales tax forfeited FOR ONE GAME......my 27 yr old daughter runs a major event venue principally hosting weddings.....did $3 mil last year in revenues or another $240,000 in sales tax revenues...crickets so far in 2020, <50 people ins the clown's limit.....it is a very popular venue where Rochester's elite will spend $75,000-$125,000+ on a wedding.....he cries broke but stops the revenue stream.....at the same time, the clown is spending $450 MILLION to rehab rest stops on the NYS Thruway (I-90).......where you stop, use the restroom, grab a coffee and back on the road in 15 minutes...certainly has his priorities straight....

Edited August 24, 2020 by OldTimeAFLGuy

[GG]

4 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

 

Or it could be a second wave and we're both wrong and there's not a herd immunity setting in long term. Time will tell but I suspect this isn't a second wave as much as a continuation of a wave that got cut off.

 

 

Possible, but not likely given the little resurgence in any other previously hard hit location.  I am still perplexed in why the virus hit a hard wall outside the immediate NYC commuting counties.  The best plausible explanation is that the follow on mutations are much weaker once you get past the initial deadly strain. 

 

It's as if the particularly deadly European strain was specifically seeded in Brussels, London, Milan, Madrid, Paris & NYC ...

 

[BillStime]

 

[Magox]

At this rate we could possibly be below 900 deaths per day (7 day moving average) by the end of the week.  Hospitalizations, cases, ICU’s, percent positive rates and deaths appear to have all turned the corner.

 

 

[Buffalo_Gal]

 

 

 

[shoshin]

Shocking the retreat that the fda has had to do from the 35% number in the plasma press conference. I'm just glad other scientists called BS and Hahn acknowledged it. 

 

https://www.axios.com/hahn-criticism-covid-19-plasma-remarks-justified-0f9ddf5e-13f5-498c-91e6-c406dcf4b512.html

 

 

 

Really have to guard against the admin''s desire to push good news to better news. Hahn made his error multiple times and it was not a small one. 

 

Edited August 25, 2020 by shoshin

[shoshin]

9 hours ago, Magox said:

At this rate we could possibly be below 900 deaths per day (7 day moving average) by the end of the week.  Hospitalizations, cases, ICU’s, percent positive rates and deaths appear to have all turned the corner.

 

 

 

Look at Worldometer and you'll see that yesterday's deaths were not even lower than the day before. I love the Covid tracking data but they close their day early and often miss the last CA update (it dumps to the next day). Sometimes they catch it, sometimes not. The data is going down but today will be a better measure of where we are relative to the weekly peak. 

[Magox]

Every single metric continues to head lower.  Yesterday we saw the 7 day moving average move down to 974.

 

Two straight days now of total cases below 40k.   Positive percent rate is getting really close to where it was 2 months ago.

 

[BillStime]

QTrump and his co conspirators/appointees FDA’s Hahn and HHS Azar made up a number not in the study.

 

F.D.A. ‘Grossly Misrepresented’ Blood Plasma Data, Scientists Say

Most don't understand or appreciate how dangerous this is.

[SoCal Deek]

3 hours ago, shoshin said:

 

Look at Worldometer and you'll see that yesterday's deaths were not even lower than the day before. I love the Covid tracking data but they close their day early and often miss the last CA update (it dumps to the next day). Sometimes they catch it, sometimes not. The data is going down but today will be a better measure of where we are relative to the weekly peak. 

Agreed, but you don’t have to feel wet to know it’s raining. Just look at the news reporting. They already know the latest panic porn has ebbed. Another end of the world as we know it ‘crisis’ has moved on through. 

[Magox]

Where have we heard this before? 
 

 

 

[BillsFanNC]

 

[Magox]

This is where I fall, drops in cases/deaths are reaching immunity levels and that social distancing similar to like how Sweden did it is as effective than lock downs.   This analysis indicates Sweden got it right. (aside from their nursing home debacle)

 

 

 

According to his model, his projections are right in line with what I was thinking which is to hit new lows in October.   However, he does see it sort of bottoming out at that point.

 

I don't really have a good feel for what will happen once we get to November and beyond.  I do believe that we will see deaths continue and it won't go down to near zero.   Neither does the flu.   

 

[BillStime]

QOP embraces mediocrity - every single day

 

 

[Reality Check]

26 minutes ago, BillStime said:

QOP embraces mediocrity - every single day

 

 

 

[RiotAct]

5 hours ago, BillStime said:

QTrump and his co conspirators/appointees FDA’s Hahn and HHS Azar made up a number not in the study.

 

F.D.A. ‘Grossly Misrepresented’ Blood Plasma Data, Scientists Say

Most don't understand or appreciate how dangerous this is.

how dangerous is it?  On a scale of 1-10.

[B-Man]

 

 

I’M SO OLD, I CAN REMEMBER “TWO WEEKS TO FLATTEN THE CURVE:” 

 

Four Life-Threatening Unintended Consequences of the Lockdowns.