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Week 15: Bills at Steelers on SNF

YoloinOhio

By YoloinOhio
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Blank Stare Veteran

Blank Stare

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49 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

I wasn't sure where to put this, so I guess this as good as any. Someone mentioned the wind being a huge factor at New Era this season,  I did a little stats for dummies. In Bills home games the QBs (both teams) 359.0ypg/59.1apg for an average of 6.07/att. While in Bills road games, again both QBs, 500.5ypg/72.8apg 6.87/att. A pretty significant drop in effectiveness about 12% for both teams QBs at New Era this season. Interestingly, if you limit it to15 mph winds or greater (the last 4 home games), it plummets to 300.8ypg/53.5apg and 5.62/att and a whopping 16% drop in QB effectiveness.

 

Those are the only 4 games with those conditions(15mph+ winds) all season. Does this mean anything,? Not a huge sample and I'm sure looking at other seasons would help massage the data.  It does make sense to the eye, especially when you consider the QBs on both teams are impacted. And, winds at New Era can be pretty tricky to navigate with a pass.

 

 

I checked Heinz field this season and was surprised to see mimimal wind impact, usually only a few (3-7mph).

Thank you for looking this up. I mentioned the wind, but my comments were strictly based on the eyeball test. I know New Era gets some pretty crazy conditions, but it just seems like several home games this year we’ve had to wrestle with the winds to the detriment of the passing game. More so than usual.  Yes, Josh has proven he can cut through the winds at times and yes it impacts both QBs, but it’s just an oddity of our home games this year. One that I think has fairly neutralized our home field advantage. Interesting to see how the stats prove that out, albeit in a limited sample. 

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elroy16
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I can't be the only one that hears Jerry Seinfeld in their head every time they read "that's a shame," right?

mykidsdad
mykidsdad

Win and in, right? That makes this the biggest Bill's game of the century. 

PromoTheRobot
PromoTheRobot

Yes. I'm guessing it has a lot to do with your screen name 

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RichRiderBills Veteran

RichRiderBills

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3 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

stats for dummies time:

 

Bills played the #1 and #2 ranked offenses in the league the last two weeks and their defense shined. Steelers are the #28 ranked offense. Steelers played the 32nd ranked defense in the league on Sunday (Arizona) and scored one offensive TD. 

 

Bills are the #20 ranked offense and have played the #6 and #9 ranked defenses in the last 2 weeks. Steelers are #5. Next week they will play #1 and the last week of the season they play #7. 

 

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?conference=ALL&offensiveStatisticCategory=GAME_STATS&defensiveStatisticCategory=GAME_STATS&season=2019&seasonType=REG&experience=&tabSeq=2&role=OPP

 

By the time Sunday rolls around we will have played 7 of the top 15 defenses in the NFL. Food for thought.

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D. L. Hot-Flamethrower All Pro

D. L. Hot-Flamethrower

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6 minutes ago, TheProcess said:

Thank you for looking this up. I mentioned the wind, but my comments were strictly based on the eyeball test. I know New Era gets some pretty crazy conditions, but it just seems like several home games this year we’ve had to wrestle with the winds to the detriment of the passing game. More so than usual.  Yes, Josh has proven he can cut through the winds at times and yes it impacts both QBs, but it’s just an oddity of our home games this year. One that I think has fairly neutralized our home field advantage. Interesting to see how the stats prove that out, albeit in a limited sample. 

Makes it pretty hard to throw for 300 yards doesn't it? I mean in those games both QBs are throwing for about 175 on average and no one has come close to even 200 yds.

Edited by D. L. Hot-Flamethrower
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RichRiderBills Veteran

RichRiderBills

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16 hours ago, bkep32 said:

Pitt blitz just as much an as often as the ravens do.  If they dont scheme the OL to pick it up or the quick pass game to combat that it wont matter if juju or conner are back or not.  

 

I think its also worth talking about how Ravens took away running lanes for Josh when they blitzed. He can make you pay on a blitz with his legs, but we just didnt see it Sunday.

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Big Turk Hall of Famer

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45 minutes ago, Sunshower said:

I’d also say that forcing Pittsburgh into 3rd & long situations is paramount. Hodges is more of a check down kind of QB, see what happens when you force him to air it out. I think our secondary matches up marvelously in those types of situations. Keep n extra man in the box, eliminate the run and check downs, build up a lead and then blitz them into oblivion.

 

He is an undrafted rookie. If we can't limit him to very low numbers and make him look bad we don't deserve to win. If we don't turn it over or allow big special teams plays by them I see them struggling to get to 13. Pittsburgh has lived off turnovers this year, they are  near the top of the league in turnover differential at +11

Edited by matter2003
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RichRiderBills Veteran

RichRiderBills

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3 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

He is an undrafted rookie. If we can't limit him to very low numbers and make him look bad we don't deserve to win. If we don't turn it over or allow big special teams plays by them I see them struggling to get to 13. Pittsburgh has lived off turnovers this year, they are  near the top of the league in turnover differential at +11

This is the key to the game. 

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BuffaloSol Rookie

BuffaloSol

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2 hours ago, PaattMaann said:

hey @BuffaloSol remember when you wrote this a few backs...

 

BuffaloSol

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  On 11/21/2019 at 9:54 AM, PaattMaann said:

 

 dont know why you are "lol"ing....games in Pitt, vegas hates the bills, I would expect to be the underdog in that game 

I completely disagree that the Bills will be an underdog to the Mason Rudolph led Steelers. That's why I am "lol"ing, not sure why you didn't catch that.

 

 

How did this age? Love the snark of "not sure why you didnt catch that" too...

You do realize they opened as favorites right? The line shift is hilarious with this D against Ducky Hodges. But hey we might let you back on the bandwagon this week after we stomp the Steelers.

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PaattMaann Veteran

PaattMaann

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17 minutes ago, BuffaloSol said:

You do realize they opened as favorites right? The line shift is hilarious with this D against Ducky Hodges. But hey we might let you back on the bandwagon this week after we stomp the Steelers.

 

what on earth are you talking about? Why am I "off the bandwagon"? Because im pointing out your wrong about a betting line? 

 

Im as "all in" on this Bills team as you can possibly be, I firmly believe we are super bowl contenders. What does that have to do with this conversation? 

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Heitz All Pro

Heitz

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Are there a lot of TBD'ers heading to the game?   Should we start a roll call thread?  Where's the Pinto tailgate (haven't seen it pop up on Twitter yet).

 

I'm heading to the 'Burgh on Friday to meet up with hometown homies and college bros!  Parking in one of the Gold lots and other friends are at Stage AE.

 

Should be fun, I've never been to a game in Heinz Field (only a couple in Three Rivers BITD) and I haven't seen the crew in a loooong time!  :beer:

 

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Lurker All Pro

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1 hour ago, matter2003 said:

If we don't turn it over or allow big special teams plays by them I see them struggling to get to 13. Pittsburgh has lived off turnovers this year, they are  near the top of the league in turnover differential at +11

 

So what's the over/under on the number of fumbles Josh will have Sunday night?...:devil:

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Mark Vader Hall of Famer

Mark Vader

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21 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

I haven't had the chance to read all comments in this thread, so not singling you out just wanted to say...

 

Living in Pittsburgh, I've seen every steeler game and connected with some media folks too:

1. dont sleep on steeler defense.  they dont have the corners, although Haden is very good, thatbthe ravens or Patriots have, but their front seven and pass rush is the best we will be facing up till now, imo

 

2. attacking their defense: historically, teams that run spread have had success vs running 12 or 21 personnel.  this year is a bit different, as their combo of watt and Dupree is difficult to block.  Josh is going to need to throw "on time" and be willing to take some quick check downs.  their defense is very aggressive, misdirection and screens can work against them

 

3.  on offense, duck brings a very different dynamic than rudolph.  duck is a rhythm passer, not a cannon, but solid arm.  he can scramble, if needed, but more like a ryan fitz.  Teams have stacked the box to counter their strong oline and tendency this season to pass short to their rbs.  As they do that, corners typically jam the wrs in man coverage. which is where both duck and rudolph have had success with fade/go routes.  This is where I'd mix up the press vs off man/zone

 

4.  with juju hurt, I think their most dangerous weapon is diontae Johnson, however hes a rookie and still coming into his own.  james Washington has solid speed, and great catch radius/strength, hes their primary deep threat right now

 

Bottom line, get them into 3rd and 5+, and minimize the big plays on deep catches or pass interference.  On offense, josh needs to play a game like he did against the titans and hopefully connect on a deep pass

How about the Steelers Run defense?

 

Do you think that Singletary has the potential for a big game against them?

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42 minutes ago, Heitz said:

 

Are there a lot of TBD'ers heading to the game?   Should we start a roll call thread?  Where's the Pinto tailgate (haven't seen it pop up on Twitter yet).

 

We’re all fear bunkering it right now, praying the Bills don’t Billsy away the end of the season. 

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njbuff All Pro

njbuff

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10 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

Definitely don’t like PIT getting Conner and JuJu back for this game. Bad timing for the Bills. 


Bring it on.

 

The Bills just need to play their game and not worry about who is or isn’t playing in this game.

 

It comes down to who wins the turnover battle more than any other game this season.

 

The Bills haven’t been turning it over on a regular basis and the Steelers have been the best this season at forcing turnovers.

 

What gives for this game?

Just now, Bronxbomber21 said:

Are we wearing the All Whites this weekend in Pittsburgh?


God, I hope not.

 

It should be the usual white on blue.

 

Why change now?

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BuffaloSol Rookie

BuffaloSol

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1 hour ago, PaattMaann said:

 

what on earth are you talking about? Why am I "off the bandwagon"? Because im pointing out your wrong about a betting line? 

 

Im as "all in" on this Bills team as you can possibly be, I firmly believe we are super bowl contenders. What does that have to do with this conversation? 

Because you waited to try to say ""got you" when the Initial line was (-1)Bills and you forgot to mention I said Mason Rudolph led Steelers. There is hype for this ducky by the public but he played a team that gives up the most fantasy points to QB's, the cardinals are a really bad team. Oh, he started vs the bengals chargers and browns terrible d's. This will be a blow out if we show up, which they have for every game other than Philly this year. It's a terrible line just like most of lines early in the year and the 6.5 over/under wins. Go out and make yourself some money.

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bills and clippers fan Probation

bills and clippers fan

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Before the Ravens played us, and not counting 49ers, they had blown out their previous 5 competitors (including texans, pats, seahawks, rams).  Yet, they had a close game with us.

I like our defense vs their offense.  We should win by 10.  

 

Exposing our crappy offensive line, may have been a good thing.  For this game!

 

 

1 hour ago, arcane said:

Honestly terrified of this game. 

You shouldn't be.

This year the bills are beating teams they should beat.  (Except the browns)  

 

19 minutes ago, Mark Vader said:

How about the Steelers Run defense?

 

Do you think that Singletary has the potential for a big game against them?

He has potential for a big game against anybody. 

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10 minutes ago, BuffaloSol said:

Because you waited to try to say ""got you" when the Initial line was (-1)Bills and you forgot to mention I said Mason Rudolph led Steelers. There is hype for this ducky by the public but he played a team that gives up the most fantasy points to QB's, the cardinals are a really bad team. Oh, he started vs the bengals chargers and browns terrible d's. This will be a blow out if we show up, which they have for every game other than Philly this year. It's a terrible line just like most of lines early in the year and the 6.5 over/under wins. Go out and make yourself some money.

 

yea its ok to be wrong though buddy! ya just gotta own it, you thought the Bills would be definitely favored over the Steelers...which is nuts considering they are pretty even teams defensively and the bettors hate the bills offense (for good reason) and the Steelers are at home, and thats not how Vegas works haha. 

 

They have a nice winning streak because they have played nobodies...Duck isnt good. Mason wasnt good. 

 

Heck yea we should beat them, and heck yea im gonna win some money!!! 

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Franco_92

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20 minutes ago, bills and clippers fan said:

Before the Ravens played us, and not counting 49ers, they had blown out their previous 5 competitors (including texans, pats, seahawks, rams).  Yet, they had a close game with us.

I like our defense vs their offense.  We should win by 10.  

 

Exposing our crappy offensive line, may have been a good thing.  For this game!

 

 

You shouldn't be.

This year the bills are beating teams they should beat.  (Except the browns)  

 

He has potential for a big game against anybody. 

Literally the last time I felt this way was before the Browns game so this doesn't exactly help hah

 

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BuffaloSol Rookie

BuffaloSol

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12 minutes ago, PaattMaann said:

 

yea its ok to be wrong though buddy! ya just gotta own it, you thought the Bills would be definitely favored over the Steelers...which is nuts considering they are pretty even teams defensively and the bettors hate the bills offense (for good reason) and the Steelers are at home, and thats not how Vegas works haha. 

 

They have a nice winning streak because they have played nobodies...Duck isnt good. Mason wasnt good. 

 

Heck yea we should beat them, and heck yea im gonna win some money!!! 

Sorry "buddy" when this conversation originally started I had lol'd at the Bills opening as an underdog, which they didn't, did I miss something? 

 

Also the Bills are 8-4-1 ATS 3rd best this year & 70% of bettors are taking Buffalo with the points, if you know what that means then you would not think bettors hate the bills (for good reason). I laughed at the Cowboys spread to "buddy." I guess you are one of the few who thought the 6.5 over under win total was a tough bet. 

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Greg S Veteran

Greg S

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1 hour ago, TheProcess said:

We’re all fear bunkering it right now, praying the Bills don’t Billsy away the end of the season. 

 

Worst case scenario they lose the next 2 and go into the Jets game 9-6. The Bills will absolutely crush the Jets if they need that game. I just hope the Bills have clinched a playoff spot before then. Get it done in Pittsburgh.

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