Shaq Lawson Option decision week. What do you do?

[C.Biscuit97]

As others have said, he’s solid but not a game changer.  I’d keep him if the price was right but I don’t ever see him being a real difference maker.  

[YoloinOhio]

2 minutes ago, BillsfaninSB said:

Why not pick it up?  If he has another pedestrian season in 2019 we can just release him or trade him.  Am I missing something? 

 

If if he plays great that is a good problem to have. 

If he gets hurt, it is guaranteed 

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

2 minutes ago, Freddie's Dead said:

 

I must violently agree with you.

 

I have never been violently agreed with before, but now that I have, I must say, it is electric. 

[YoloinOhio]

 

I think by picking it up it sends a message that mediocrity is good enough. Yes he’s a good run defender but he hasn’t proven that he can perform at a high level as what his position is really paid to do - affect the passer. You don’t pay guys 14 mill to set the edge vs the run, you pay them that much to pressure the QB. He hasn’t shown that yet so it looks bad imo to pick up the option at this time. He still has a year to show that he is worth it, and if he does, the Bills can pursue an extension. 

[billsfan_34]

5 hours ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...think the option is $10.2 million......

He isn’t worth 10.2

[CaptnCoke11]

He’s not a 10+ million player.  Not even close

[C.Biscuit97]

10 minutes ago, billsfan_34 said:

He isn’t worth 10.2

He would need to get double digit sacks and I don’t see that happening. He’s Chris Kelsey with a tan. 

[White Linen]

I wouldn't pick up the option.  We need more hurries and sacks and that's not Shaq's strong suite.  We're on a mission to find and add that to our roster - and settling for Lawson at the projected price doesn't interest me.  

 

There's a reason we were talked about being in on Clark, Clowney and Insah.  

[BillsfaninSB]

16 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

If he gets hurt, it is guaranteed 

 

I thought it is only guaranteed if he gets injured during the 2020 league year which starts March 1 and not during 2019. 

[YoloinOhio]

13 minutes ago, BillsfaninSB said:

 

I thought it is only guaranteed if he gets injured during the 2020 league year which starts March 1 and not during 2019. 

It is guaranteed for injury only until the first day of the new league year in 2020, then it becomes fully guaranteed. It can be rescinded up until that point, as well. 

[ColoradoBills]

4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Isn't it $14M he'd get on the option? 

https://www.profootballrumors.com/2019/04/bills-undecided-on-shaq-lawsons-fifth-year-option

 

I just can't see it going up that much from last year.  I think it may be the number for a DE in the top 10 pick which Shaq was not.

It's the only $ number I have seen so far but.......................

Last year a DE between 11-32 was just over 9 million.

 

Even if it's 10-10.5 I don't think they pick it up.  Let him play this year for an outright contract next year.

If he "goes to market" then a DE will need to be addressed.

 

[BillsfaninSB]

4 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

It is guaranteed for injury only until the first day of the new league year in 2020, then it becomes fully guaranteed. It can be rescinded up until that point, as well. 

 

Ahh.   My mistake.  There is some risk then for the Bills checkbook. 

[YoloinOhio]

2 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I just can't see it going up that much from last year.  I think it may be the number for a DE in the top 10 pick which Shaq was not.

It's the only $ number I have seen so far but.......................

Last year a DE between 11-32 was just over 9 million.

 

Even if it's 10-10.5 I don't think they pick it up.  Let him play this year for an outright contract next year.

If he "goes to market" then a DE will need to be addressed.

 

Joey Bosa option was 14.36mill and he was the only other DE, but was selected at 3. So you are correct it is likely more in the 10mill range but don’t know exact #, it’s the average of the 3rd-25th highest paid DEs in 2018.

[BringBackOrton]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

You can't pick it up and pay him $10.5-11m. So you only pick it up if you are planning to extend him and if I am his agent my starting point for the extension is "I want more guaranteed than the 5th year option gives me." So you have to guarantee him minimum of $12m which over 4 years if $3m a year before you start on the unguaranteed element. That to me is already getting up there in terms of his value.

 

I like Shaq but I struggle to make an argument for retaining him on that basis. At the $2m a year he is making now, having him on the roster is a no brainer. At double that price it starts to look a luxury.

Shaq is just one of those good pieces.  A pass rusher who can't rush the passer is like priority 20 when roster building.

49 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

That makes sense, but what I am really driving at is that the Shaq pick gets bashed often, but no one ever considers what the alternatives were.  There really weren't any. 

Ragland!

[ColoradoBills]

2 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Joey Bosa option was 14.36mill and he was the only other DE, but was selected at 3. So you are correct it is likely more in the 10mill range but don’t know exact #, it’s the average of the 3rd-25th highest paid DEs in 2018.

 

Thanks.  I was just looking up the other guys to see what another DE was getting paid.

Great "investigative" reporting YOLO.

 

The Shaq, Hughes, Murphy decisions are tough one's if you ask me.  I'm really curious to see how it pans out.

[BringBackOrton]

4 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Thanks.  I was just looking up the other guys to see what another DE was getting paid.

Great "investigative" reporting YOLO.

 

The Shaq, Hughes, Murphy decisions are tough one's if you ask me.  I'm really curious to see how it pans out.

Hughes is a no brainer, IMO.  He's our best EDGE rusher and we don't have a young one in the pipeline.  Plus, his advanced stats bear out that he's a star.  Have to pay him.

[YoloinOhio]

2 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Thanks.  I was just looking up the other guys to see what another DE was getting paid.

Great "investigative" reporting YOLO.

 

The Shaq, Hughes, Murphy decisions are tough one's if you ask me.  I'm really curious to see how it pans out.

It is clear to me at this point that they don’t have their franchise Edge Rusher of the future. They should focus on obtaining one via trade, 2020 FA, or 2020 draft. Chase Young is Clowney-like but if he has the year that is expected, he’s a top 3 pick. 

[Spiderweb]

6 hours ago, Chemical said:

 

This was going to be my answer 

Exactly renegotiate his deal if favorable price can be agreed upon. 14 mil is tough to swallow for his production to date. After three years I don't believe in paying for potential.

[Rebel101]

Pick it up. I think he realized a lot last year. He switched his diet and became more committed. I think he was young and arrogant. He got through most of his football career through pure athleticism. In the NFL it also takes hard work and determination which I believe he has now realized. I don’t think he will be worth the pick he was drafted but I do believe he will be out Murphy for a starting spot 

[ColoradoBills]

5 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

Hughes is a no brainer, IMO.  He's our best EDGE rusher and we don't have a young one in the pipeline.  Plus, his advanced stats bear out that he's a star.  Have to pay him.

 

5 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

It is clear to me at this point that they don’t have their franchise Edge Rusher of the future. They should focus on obtaining one via trade, 2020 FA, or 2020 draft. Chase Young is Clowney-like but if he has the year that is expected, he’s a top 3 pick. 

 

I like Hughes a lot and I think his sacks go up this year.  Not that sacks mean everything.

In all likelihood Murphy is let go next year.  Shaq is a question and I agree with Yolo that next year they look for the DE of the future.

I extend Jerry if it's the right contract.  If he wants too much for too long you got to let him test FA.

I really think that he may want to stay with the Bills and go for a short term reasonable $ contract.

 

Beane probably lets it all play out this year as is.  LOL, let's hope Eli Harold turns into Hughes 2.0.

[Rubes]

Wow, from the collection of responses so far it's clear this is a pretty tough call with plenty of opinions.

 

These are the kinds of decisions that Beane gets paid the big bucks for, and the ones that we will look back on when evaluating his skill as a GM. Kind of like one of those key defining decisions.

 

I think the fact that we were active in FA/trade for a new DE points to the fact that we are looking for an upgrade for Shaq. I don't think Beane will pick it up, but if he doesn't it could put us in a weak position next offseason with regard to negotiations either for a trade or in FA.

 

[billsfan_34]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

He would need to get double digit sacks and I don’t see that happening. He’s Chris Kelsey with a tan. 

Lol that was funny , C !!! 

[BringBackOrton]

41 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

 

I like Hughes a lot and I think his sacks go up this year.  Not that sacks mean everything.

In all likelihood Murphy is let go next year.  Shaq is a question and I agree with Yolo that next year they look for the DE of the future.

I extend Jerry if it's the right contract.  If he wants too much for too long you got to let him test FA.

I really think that he may want to stay with the Bills and go for a short term reasonable $ contract.

 

Beane probably lets it all play out this year as is.  LOL, let's hope Eli Harold turns into Hughes 2.0.

I think it's a mistake to let Hughes walk under any circumstance until he is clearly the #2 pass rusher on the roster.  We have a rookie QB under contract, now is the time to keep top tier talent at the second most important position in football. Extend Hughes for 3 years, give him whatever he wants to keep him.

[ColoradoBills]

8 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

I think it's a mistake to let Hughes walk under any circumstance until he is clearly the #2 pass rusher on the roster.  We have a rookie QB under contract, now is the time to keep top tier talent at the second most important position in football. Extend Hughes for 3 years, give him whatever he wants to keep him.

 

The first bolded is a great way to say it.  I really like Hughes and would like to see him stay.  That being said it's a long season

and we'll see what happens.

 

The second bolded I know is more of a cliché,  but there is no way the Bills pay Hughes 21 million a year.

So logic dictates there is a limit.

[BringBackOrton]

3 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

The first bolded is a great way to say it.  I really like Hughes and would like to see him stay.  That being said it's a long season

and we'll see what happens.

 

The second bolded I know is more of a cliché,  but there is no way the Bills pay Hughes 21 million a year.

So logic dictates there is a limit.

He's not going to need that.  

[Irv]

4 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

The first bolded is a great way to say it.  I really like Hughes and would like to see him stay.  That being said it's a long season

and we'll see what happens.

 

The second bolded I know is more of a cliché,  but there is no way the Bills pay Hughes 21 million a year.

So logic dictates there is a limit.

 

When Hughes wasn't being tackled on no-calls every play - he was a beast.  Need to keep him.  Can do without Shaq Kelsay. 

[ColoradoBills]

3 minutes ago, Irv said:

 

When Hughes wasn't being tackled on no-calls every play - he was a beast.  Need to keep him.  Can do without Shaq Kelsay. 

 

Which is back to what the thread is about.  I think Beane does not 5th year option Shaq and it's probably a good decision not to.

Murphy may have another summer/fall full of nagging injuries.

When Shaq improves only slightly and Murphy is spending more time in the tubs than on the field then extend Hughes.

Beane has a little more time before he has to pull the trigger.  IMO of course but I see your guys point.

[GunnerBill]

The problem with the extend Hughes whatever approach is that when pass rushers hit the wall it comes quickly. You saw it just last year with Orakpo in Tennessee for example. We could pay Jerry in camp and by week 8 he could be done and you have dead money. Any extension with him starts at the 2020 DE franchise tag number as the floor for guaranteed cash. You have to work out a way where as much if that as possible counts against the cap of the first year of the new deal (so 2019 if we sign him before the season or 2020 if we sign him after). Any more than $4m guaranteed after that point is more dead cash than I am willing to risk and that likely makes getting a deal done very difficult unfortunately. 

 

I still say if he tears it up in 2019 I'd consider the tag for 2020 and then let him walk. He will be 33 by the time 2021 kicks off. 

[RobbRiddick]

With Hughes at the end of his contract and Alexander on the verge of retirement, plus all the one year deals we have, there's a potential ***** load of holes we'd have to fill in FA or the draft. I'd like to pick up his option and re-sign Hughes ASAP so we can go after the final missing pieces next year rather than filling fresh holes

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

2 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

It is guaranteed for injury only until the first day of the new league year in 2020, then it becomes fully guaranteed. It can be rescinded up until that point, as well. 

..even if you decline, I doubt there would be anything close to $10 mil/yr salary offered to him as UFA....think you may be able to-re-sign at a more reasonable rate..........

[YoloinOhio]

42 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

..even if you decline, I doubt there would be anything close to $10 mil/yr salary offered to him as UFA....think you may be able to-re-sign at a more reasonable rate..........

Perhaps... it’s really intended to be used as an avenue to add a year to a 1st rd pick heading toward UFA, who you intend to keep but aren’t ready to extend long term because the contract will be giant and complicated to negotiate. Basically the franchise tag. It isn’t intended to be used just so you don’t have “another hole” for that one year. No need to pay that much for someone who isn’t considered part of your core team building. If the player isn’t considered integral going forward, no reason for the 5th year given the high price. Looking to next year, unless Tre takes a step back, there will be no debate and his will get picked up early like Zeke, Wentz, Bosa etc. Those are the types of players who get the option picked up, or should. 

[papazoid]

$14 mil ??  NO  WAY...forget about it

 

he's barely worth half that

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/bills-have-decision-on-hefty-fifth-year-option-for-de-shaq-lawson/ar-BBWngAa

[cantankerous]

I’d let him walk. 

[YoloinOhio]

2 minutes ago, papazoid said:

$14 mil ??  NO  WAY...forget about it

 

he's barely worth half that

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/bills-have-decision-on-hefty-fifth-year-option-for-de-shaq-lawson/ar-BBWngAa

I believe it will be less because he was selected outside the top 10, despite what the article says. Still would be around 10mill. It’s the average of the 3rd-25th highest DE salaries from 2018.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

1 minute ago, YoloinOhio said:

Perhaps... it’s really intended to be used as an avenue to add a year to a 1st rd pick heading toward UFA, who you intend to keep but aren’t ready to extend long term because the contract will be giant and complicated to negotiate. Basically the franchise tag. It isn’t intended to be used just so you don’t have “another hole” for that one year. No need to pay that much for someone who isn’t considered part of your core team building. If the player isn’t considered integral going forward, no reason for the 5th year given the high price. Looking to next year, unless Tre takes a step back, there will be no debate and his will get picked up early like Zeke, Wentz, Bosa etc. Those are the types of players who get the option picked up, or should. 

.....nicely done Yolo...thanks for sharing.....probably more of my "senior moment" yap, but it would NOT surprise me one bit if the Plan-A-Holic McBeane already has an extensive chart laid out for 2020....probably includes option years, expiring one year deals, Bflo UFA's and possible league wide UFA's, potential/probable draftees, as well as many scenarios where Bflo may draft....think I'm liking this "in good hands" from the Allstate guy...stay tuned.....

[njbuff]

Lawson and a 2020 2nd round pick for Clowney and be done with it.

 

?

[LSHMEAB]

If I'm Beane, I'm NOT picking us that option. He has simply not demonstrated the ability to get to the QB consistently despite pretty extensive playing time. He's solid, but DE's who don't produce sacks are not coveted on the open market. If he maintains his current level or even jumps to SIX sacks, we're talking about a player that can easily be retained at a team friendly rate. If he busts out and puts up double digit sacks, good for him and the 2019 Bills. Does ANYONE expect that? Roll the dice and make him earn it.

[ColoradoBills]

11 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

.....nicely done Yolo...thanks for sharing.....probably more of my "senior moment" yap, but it would NOT surprise me one bit if the Plan-A-Holic McBeane already has an extensive chart laid out for 2020....probably includes option years, expiring one year deals, Bflo UFA's and possible league wide UFA's, potential/probable draftees, as well as many scenarios where Bflo may draft....think I'm liking this "in good hands" from the Allstate guy...stay tuned.....

 

For sure he does Oldtime.  Along with having his Pro Scouts doing internal player audits and books on each team in the league.

Do you think Buddy Nix had all that stuff?

[LABILLBACKER]

9 hours ago, Irv said:

Another crappy pick by Whaley.  Shaq is too Chris-Kelsay-ish.  Plays like him.  Even wears the same number.  Has done nothing.  Buy-bye. 

He plays exactly like Kelsay and look how long we stuck it out with lunch pail while getting very little production. I say no....

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

21 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

For sure he does Oldtime.  Along with having his Pro Scouts doing internal player audits and books on each team in the league.

Do you think Buddy Nix had all that stuff?

...Buddy started hibernatin' in November when our season was "officially over" and set his alarm clock for 9AM on draft day......wanted to make sure he was "well rested"..