Calling it now: Zay Jones will not be on the week 1 roster.

[Toesy]

IMO he will probably play for the Bills this season but he is far from a lock-he is the number 3 or 4 WR right now-it all comes down to the camp and preseason. 

[dollars 2 donuts]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Keep in mind, this isnt about whether Zay completely sucks or cant be in the NFL, I never said and thats not my intention.  But let me point out Stevie Johnson because I have had a similarly path with Zay as I did with Stevie.

 

On draft night, I liked both picks (although I preferred JuJu, but still liked Zay too).  With Stevie, I was laughed at for liking the pick (similar how people are mocking the excitement a lot of us have in David Sills V) because he was a lower round pick...that is until he emerged.  I started as a supporter and an early fan as he emerged.  But after watching him over a couple seasons, I began to become critical of his ceiling and relevance.  

 

Was Stevie really good or a JAG who was compiling stats in mostly meaningless minutes to look more productive than he was.  Again, people mocked me even questioning it.  Stevie then leaves in his prime, and becomes just another guy for a few years and was out of the league.  Everything I said about him was proven correct the moment he left Buffalo, even while playing with a future HOF QB.  

 

Enter Zay Jones.  Fans are lashing out here over some pretty mediocre stat totals and without actually analyzing the week to week context of those totals.  Sounds familiar to me as its all the same arguments I got when I was critical of Stevie, Trent and Fitz.  I argued totals are a fools gold conclusion every time and lack the context of what their real week to week value was.  

 

So for me, its nothing more than I don't see Zay showing up when it matters, I dont see him stepping up against good competition, and I have seen less heralded WR's like Foster out play him.  

 

But now the real test begins...he is no longer competing against scrubs for playing time.  Any WR can put some stats up if there is no one else to throw to.  But now, we got some proven weapons and some young hungry guys with their own potential.  He may prove his doubters wrong, and I would LOVE that.  But its no sure thing in my book.  

 

 

Alpha, you absolutely did not say that, you are right.  Additionally, I thought very well of your points the first time around, too.

 

Man, seriously, this is going to be exciting how this plays out.  I am torn.  I truly want what's best for the team...but I never mind being right in threads!  And, seriously, I think the kid has shown growth and he will continue to do so.  We'll see, and the reason why it is going to be so good (I hope) is that it will not be a process of elimination but rather quality competition.

 

Go Bills!

Edited May 2, 2019 by dollars 2 donuts

[ColoradoBills]

10 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I like this post and dont really disagree with any of it.  I actually think someone like Duke could push to start.  Be great to have a speedster on one side, a big catch radius guy on the other, and speedy slot guy in Cole.  Duke has to prove he can do it in the NFL still, but if he has a strong camp and preseason it wouldn't surprise me to see him and Brown starting with them rotating Foster in for deep pressure.  

 

Thats all speculation right now of course, but I think Daboll and McD like to attack levels.  And if someone like Duke can emerge, it makes the offense quite difficult to defend when you add in our new TE's and Shady as a reciever too out of the back field.  We can attack everywhere on the field.  Then bring in both Foster and Brown when you want to take the top off and open up the middle.  

 

Thanks Dawg.  Sure Duke could become a great fit.  So can a lot of these guys.

When it comes to the offensive weapons we just got to wait to see what Daboll is going to be doing.

I don't hold much stock in last years schemes and play calling.  He had nothing to work with and had 4 QBs to game plan for.

This year is a complete unknown to me.

[Shaw66]

29 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

What?!  Hahaha, wow...No wonder we disagree if you think only 2 of those were "true drops".  I would bet everything I own in life that his coaches didn't give him a pass in the film room.  

 

No disrespect man, its all good and this is definitely not personal or anything, I got no issue with you or your differing opinion.  I mean, we are all Bills fans and just want whats best for the Bills.  

 

But wow, I am a dumbfounded on how you can only fault Zay on 2 and give him a pass on the rest.  

Alpha - I didn't watch the video, so I don't know.  But I DID watch the video that was up a few weeks ago - something like 8 minutes of Bills dropsfrom 2018, and I was amazed at how many of them were Zay's.  My recollection was that he had been better, but he had a lot of balls that were easy catches that he dropped, and he had several more that were reasonable NFL catches that he dropped.   

 

He has to get better, or he's toast.   And I know you're saying this (you've told us about 100 times) but the more I think about this the more I think he actually could get cut.  

[MrEpsYtown]

1 hour ago, Buffalo03 said:

What do you mean zero opportunity to play? Quinn Early was here in 1998 just like he was in the first 2 years of Moulds career as was Andre Reed. The Bills also had Kevin Williams as well in 1998. Moulds didn't play as much or as well his first two years because he wasn't as good of a player or the light didn't go on yet. Year 3 was when the light went on for him and he started to get it and that is why he got more playing time. Not because of the amount of receivers we had

 

Zero is one word. Did you read the rest? Look at targets? Consider that Early and Reed were very old when Moulds broke out? Moulds did not have enough targets his first two years to make a significant impact. Zay was targeted 176 times in two years and has less than a thousand yards receiving. It isn't about just playing time. It's about targets, That's what I mean when I talk about opportunity. Zay will never be able to come close to Eric Moulds. He doesn't have it. 

[Buffalo03]

3 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

Zero is one word. Did you read the rest? Look at targets? Consider that Early and Reed were very old when Moulds broke out? Moulds did not have enough targets his first two years to make a significant impact. Zay was targeted 176 times in two years and has less than a thousand yards receiving. It isn't about just playing time. It's about targets, That's what I mean when I talk about opportunity. Zay will never be able to come close to Eric Moulds. He doesn't have it. 

Maybe Moulds didn't have enough targets because he wasn't earning it on the field his first two years? I know you and other people don't wanna believe that it takes certain players a little extra time to grasp the NFL game but that's what happened to Moulds. Reed and Early were still very productive at that point in their careers. Reed's level of play didn't sink so much from 1996 which was Mould's rookie season until he broke out in 1998. One could even argue with the amount of double coverages that Reed faced in Moulds first two years that Moulds should have feasted on secondaries but he didn't. He broke out in 1998 with the exact same receiving core he had his two prior years. Yes, Moulds had poor QB play his second year but it still didn't affect Andre Reed any. Zay has shown flashes or glimpses of being a more than capable NFL receiver. Sure he's had some drops but he had big progress from year 1 to year 2 and year 1 he had Tyrod who barely threw and had 150 yards a game. Zay should excel this year being in the system for 3 years and having more weapons around him

[Flip Johnson]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

One important thing about last year and this year:

 

Last year, I was one of the few that said Foster was likely going to make the week 1 roster.  Many said I was crazy.  Why did I say he would...not because of all the catches he made, but because he brought something different the other likely kept WRs didnt have...and that was speed and getting open.  He was struggling tracking the ball in preseason, but he was blowing by defenders and getting open.  That different element is what gave him the edge to crack the roster.  

 

This year, enter Duke Williams (and David Sills V).  Like last year, they both have strengths to their game that are not present in the other likely WRs to be on this roster.  Beane brought in 3 big WRs now, and thats a strong indicator he is looking for some size to compliment the other WRs and give Allen a big Redzone and first down target to work with.  

 

There are only so many spots available, and Brown, Foster, and Cole are pretty safe bets to not only be here week 1, but be the top 3 pecking order to start the year off.  Zay could still win a starting spot, and he WILL be given that shot.  But its a lot harder this year than facing off against the likes of Andre Holmes last year.  If he doesnt crack the starting unit, now he is in battle with guys who bring a totally different dimension to the group and based on Beanes comments and signings, its clear Beane desires some size in this room.  

 

So, again, this is why I think Zay has an uphill battle.  And like last year, many said I was crazy about what I said about Foster, and he turned out to be our best WR by seasons end.  

 

Zay will not only be on the team, he is likely to lead the team in catches.

 

The idea that Duke Williams who runs a 4.7 and has played his whole career in Canada, and a UDFA from W. Virginia is somehow endangering Zay Jones' status is absurd.

 

He is an improving player that showed good chemistry with JA down the stretch last year. He will probably go for 65 and 800 this year and we'll still be seeing posts about how he sucks.

[MrEpsYtown]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said:

Maybe Moulds didn't have enough targets because he wasn't earning it on the field his first two years? I know you and other people don't wanna believe that it takes certain players a little extra time to grasp the NFL game but that's what happened to Moulds. Reed and Early were still very productive at that point in their careers. Reed's level of play didn't sink so much from 1996 which was Mould's rookie season until he broke out in 1998. One could even argue with the amount of double coverages that Reed faced in Moulds first two years that Moulds should have feasted on secondaries but he didn't. He broke out in 1998 with the exact same receiving core he had his two prior years. Yes, Moulds had poor QB play his second year but it still didn't affect Andre Reed any. Zay has shown flashes or glimpses of being a more than capable NFL receiver. Sure he's had some drops but he had big progress from year 1 to year 2 and year 1 he had Tyrod who barely threw and had 150 yards a game. Zay should excel this year being in the system for 3 years and having more weapons around him

 

Id have to go back and watch the games to really know, but I remember Moulds flashing big play abilty and I do remember people being dissapointed that he was not consistent. You make a lot good points, and I understand the idea that people can develop. But Zay has shown no signs that he might be more than he is, which is a mediocre receiver. Is he an NFL receiver? Yes he deserves to be in the league. But he is just meh and will probably not make it to a significant second contract. He's like Jordan Mathews without the size or good hands. 

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

Its amazing that after that draft, where we didn't draft a single WR, more people who have agreed with that OP haven't walked away realizing they just have no idea what they are talking about.  I understand saying he has too many drops (he actually only had 3 last year), because that was a problem for him his rookie year, but to say he doesn't get separation is just wrong. It is like saying vaccines are bad for children. Sure, you are entitled to your opinion, but it's wrong. Like, as a point of fact, it is just wrong. 

 

I can think of 4 drops off the top of my head. I don't trust any drop stats. I don't remember what game it was but there was some game with Tyrod at QB where the official stat had it at 2 drops and I could distinctly point 4 drops in that game. I don't know what the official drop stat counts, but it's wrong.

 

Zay runs decent routes. He can get open in the short and intermediate routes on probably an average percentage of plays. He isn't complete trash. But he doesn't separate enough to be a full time starting receiver, and when he doesn't separate he literally has a 0% catch rate in contested situations. I'm not pulling that stat from anywhere, but I cant remember a single contested catch. The defender always wins.

 

I'm genuinely curious what do you think he adds to the offense? Brown and Foster add speed. Beasley adds short area quickness and separation. Duke Williams or Sills, it remains to be seen but they may add contested catch ability. What does Zay add? What does he do at an above average level? If he offers nothing but average to below average skill sets, why would you pencil him in as a starter?

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I can think of 4 drops off the top of my head. I don't trust any drop stats. I don't remember what game it was but there was some game with Tyrod at QB where the official stat had it at 2 drops and I could distinctly point 4 drops in that game. I don't know what the official drop stat counts, but it's wrong.

 

Zay runs decent routes. He can get open in the short and intermediate routes on probably an average percentage of plays. He isn't complete trash. But he doesn't separate enough to be a full time starting receiver, and when he doesn't separate he literally has a 0% catch rate in contested situations. I'm not pulling that stat from anywhere, but I cant remember a single contested catch. The defender always wins.

 

I'm genuinely curious what do you think he adds to the offense? Brown and Foster add speed. Beasley adds short area quickness and separation. Duke Williams or Sills, it remains to be seen but they may add contested catch ability. What does Zay add? What does he do at an above average level? If he offers nothing but average to below average skill sets, why would you pencil him in as a starter?

 

I NEVER trust fan perception and memory. It is biased, it is uninformed, and it is generally unhelpful.  There are passes that fans feel should be caught that people work in around the league know is uncatchable. For example, you say he doesn't separate enough for a full time starting receiver.  Like, what does this even mean in the context of man v. zone defenses.  In a zone you are looking for the soft spots, not getting separation the classic sense like a WR would against man. I point that out because he is a great route runner and our best WR against zone defenses. Which is important because of the way Allen runs with the ball, it forces teams to play zone.  Now, more important is the issue of what an average full time starting receiver is capable of.  This is big for me, since it is pretty obvious that when people talk about the full time starter they are really talking about the WR1.  If you think Zay isn't at the very least, average, you are wrong.  I mean, just look at the stats.  He is mid 40s-50s in ypc, yards, catches, etc.  There are 32 teams, 64 starting WRs (more since most teams actually start 3 wrs).  He is perfectly average, and thus deserving of a starting spot. 

[berg1029]

Coming into this thread a bit late (30 pages in!  holy moly).  I have two things to say:

 

1.  Zay's hands improved considerably from year one to year two.  Year one he was the worst WR that I have ever seen.  He was that bad, couldn't catch a cold in December.  To me, it felt like he was getting open but just wasn't making any catches.  Year two, he was no longer god awful, which was a BIG step up from what he was that first year.  His hands have improved considerably in his first two years, and that alone means he should -at the very least- be on the team next year.

 

2.  He seemed to thrive when plays broke down. Whenever Allen was being flushed out of the pocket, it felt like the person he was hitting was Zay.  I don't know if this is because Allen had more trust in him or because the other WR on the field (usually Foster) was likely deeper.  Either way, it kind of felt like he and Allen were on the same page a lot of the time.  Everyone has been saying that Allen needs a WR to grow with.. Zay might be that guy

[Buffalo03]

36 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

Id have to go back and watch the games to really know, but I remember Moulds flashing big play abilty and I do remember people being dissapointed that he was not consistent. You make a lot good points, and I understand the idea that people can develop. But Zay has shown no signs that he might be more than he is, which is a mediocre receiver. Is he an NFL receiver? Yes he deserves to be in the league. But he is just meh and will probably not make it to a significant second contract. He's like Jordan Mathews without the size or good hands. 

Yes, Moulds was very inconsistent his first two seasons. Lots of dropped balls, not winning on routes, I remember thinking how I thought he was gonna be a bust. He was a completely different receiver in year 3. It just took time for him to adjust. This will be a make or break year for Zay. I think he did make a few strides last year but this is the year he has to take it to the next level. If he doesn't then I feel it would be time to move on 

[ngbills]

7 hours ago, K-9 said:

What about the Duke reminds you of Rogers? 

From a fan perspective. Not the players. Just this idea that a guy that previously was not good enough to be on an NFL roster is being touted as almost a sure thing. Like Rogers, Duke is more likely to not make the team than he is to be the #1 WR. 

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, Flip Johnson said:

 

 

The idea that Duke Williams who runs a 4.7 and has played his whole career in Canada, and a UDFA from W. Virginia is somehow endangering Zay Jones' status is absurd.

 

It isn't absurd.  Williams and Sills both had multiple NFL teams who wanted them.  Neither is likely to last on the practice squad, if they show anything in camp.  The question isn't whether either is better than Zay now.  The question is whether they look like they will be better in November or December, as they gain experience.   They will improve more in the upcoming six months than Zay will.  

 

If they look like they will be better than Zay over time, Zay is in trouble.  Someone will give Buffalo a sixth or seventh round pick for him.

  

[atlbillsfan1975]

Zay will have to have a serious off field issue and follow it up win a terrible preseason. Barring that, which I see neither happening, Zay will be on the team.

[Teddy KGB]

6 hours ago, nedboy7 said:

ZJ is most likely gonna have a career year and make this thread look silly.  What’s the point of arguing over this. 

 

Gotta replace “most likely” with maybe or I hope . 

9 hours ago, Jay_Fixit said:

Zay will lead the team in receiving. People here are way too hard on him.

 

Because he hardly shows up when needed 

3 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

 

Oh I don't know 

 

Maybe BECAUSE he was the leading target / receiver.  

 

 

On a team in the cellar for passing stats.   

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

 

Oh I don't know 

 

Maybe BECAUSE he was the leading target / receiver.  

 

 

And how many catches did he have in relation to his drops?  What was his overall catch rate?  Hint:  None of those answers are good.

3 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Thanks Dawg.  Sure Duke could become a great fit.  So can a lot of these guys.

When it comes to the offensive weapons we just got to wait to see what Daboll is going to be doing.

I don't hold much stock in last years schemes and play calling.  He had nothing to work with and had 4 QBs to game plan for.

This year is a complete unknown to me.

 

Agree, and I also think we could see a lot of 2 TE sets this year with Knox staying into block/release and Knox down the seam.  

3 hours ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

Alpha, you absolutely did not say that, you are right.  Additionally, I thought very well of your points the first time around, too.

 

Man, seriously, this is going to be exciting how this plays out.  I am torn.  I truly want what's best for the team...but I never mind being right in threads!  And, seriously, I think the kid has shown growth and he will continue to do so.  We'll see, and the reason why it is going to be so good (I hope) is that it will not be a process of elimination but rather quality competition.

 

Go Bills!

 

Thanks, and yeah like I have said from the beginning, I am not making some guaranteed proclamation.  I originally just shared my gut feeling on what I thought Beane would do in the offseason and how that could affect camp and preseason.  I am not invested in being right here, I am invested in the Bills being the best team they can be.  I will be the biggest Zay Jones fan every time he is on the field if he proves my doubts wrong.  

 

That being said, nothing has happened to change my opinion since the original post to make me feel better about Zay because they have not stepped on the field yet.  So obviously, my opinion persists until I see something different on the field to change it.  

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Alpha - I didn't watch the video, so I don't know.  But I DID watch the video that was up a few weeks ago - something like 8 minutes of Bills dropsfrom 2018, and I was amazed at how many of them were Zay's.  My recollection was that he had been better, but he had a lot of balls that were easy catches that he dropped, and he had several more that were reasonable NFL catches that he dropped.   

 

He has to get better, or he's toast.   And I know you're saying this (you've told us about 100 times) but the more I think about this the more I think he actually could get cut.  

 

I believe the video you watched before is the same video here.  It was originally posted a little while ago, was always a 5 min video.  So I am pretty certain its the same so don't need to watch it again. 

 

[HOUSE]

Oh geeeez, don't call it now!!

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, Flip Johnson said:

 

Zay will not only be on the team, he is likely to lead the team in catches.

 

The idea that Duke Williams who runs a 4.7 and has played his whole career in Canada, and a UDFA from W. Virginia is somehow endangering Zay Jones' status is absurd.

 

He is an improving player that showed good chemistry with JA down the stretch last year. He will probably go for 65 and 800 this year and we'll still be seeing posts about how he sucks.

 

Really?  Care to provide proof?  Here let me help:  Josh Allen returned against the Jags, so there were 6 games down the stretch with Allen:

1. Week 12 - Bills defeat Jags 24-21:  Zay 0 receptions on 1 target,  for 0 yards and 0 TDs 
   1. Do I even need to say anything here, he did absolutely nothing while Foster had a big game.  
2. Week 13 - Bills lose to Miami:  17-21:  Zay 4 rec on 9 targets for 67 yards, 2 TDs.
   1. First productive game with Allen, still had a catch % of just 44% and failed to make some plays, including one that hurt our ability to win this game late.
3. Week 14 - Bills lose to Jets:  23-27:  Zay 3 rec on 9 targets, for 22 yards, 0 TDs
   1. A 33% catch rate and 22 yards of production...terrible game again
4. Week 15 - Bills defeat Lions:  14-13:  Zay 1 rec on 6 targets, 11 yards
   1. This might have been his worst game in his career, definitely of the season.  Was DOMINATED by Slay...about as bad as I have seen a WR get owned.  
5. Week 16 - Bills lose to pats:  12-24:  Zay 5 rec on 9 targets, 67 yards 1 TD
   1. Looks good to you stat sheet analysts, HOWEVER:  Down 3 scores with 1 minute left in the game, Zay had 4 rec on 8 targets for 34 yards.  He got a free walk in uncovered TD at the end to trick the stat sheet analysts, but he was terrible again this game and got half his yards and a TD on a free play at end of game when it didnt matter. 
6. Week 17 - Bills defeat Miami:  42-17:  Zay 6 rec on 9 targets, 93 yards, 2 TDs
   1. Finally, ONE relevant game with Josh Allen in week 17 against a bad Miami team who didnt even show up.  Not sure I am comfortable claiming he came on down the stretch and banking on his future success off this one game.    

So let me ask you again and others who have made this mythical claim of how Zay caught fire to end the season and found chemistry with Allen.  Where is this made up chemistry?  Where did he catch fire?  

 

In the final 6 games, he only had any real production in both Miami games.  And in the first Miami game, he failed to haul in a critical pass last that contributed significantly to this loss.  He only caught 44% of the passes thrown his way in those 6 games and was utter garbage in weeks 14, 15, and 16 while also failing to make a play we needed in our loss to Miami in week 13.  

 

Its nice to just say things, but its a whole other ball game to know if it really happened or not.  

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Alpha - I didn't watch the video, so I don't know.  But I DID watch the video that was up a few weeks ago - something like 8 minutes of Bills dropsfrom 2018, and I was amazed at how many of them were Zay's.  My recollection was that he had been better, but he had a lot of balls that were easy catches that he dropped, and he had several more that were reasonable NFL catches that he dropped.   

 

He has to get better, or he's toast.   And I know you're saying this (you've told us about 100 times) but the more I think about this the more I think he actually could get cut.  

 

Zay is on the film 8 times. 5 of them are drops on him. Two of them are inaccurate throws behind him on Allen and one is a really good play by the DB to knock the ball out. 

 

But there is no way around it Zay Jones didn't catch enough balls again in 2018. And I repeat what I have said elsewhere today about the way people are looking at the makeup of the roster. Your backups have to play teams - especially at receiver and defensive back. John Brown, Cole Beasley and Robert Foster are likely ahead of Zay on the depth chart. They are not special teamers. Andre Roberts will be on the roster as a 6th receiver and return specialist. But that means when it comes to your 4th and 5th receiver someone is gonna have to go out there and play on coverage units. 

 

Zay has played 6 STs snaps in 2 years - all of which (stop the laughing at the back) on the "hands team" attempting to field onside kicks. If an Isaiah McKenzie or a Duke Williams or a David Sills can show themselves as a contributor on Special Teams Zay Jones is in trouble. 

[JohninMinn.]

Recievers are notorious for being late bloomers. I predict Zay will be all pro this year.

Edited May 2, 2019 by JohninMinn.

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

1. Week 15 - Bills defeat Lions:  14-13:  Zay 1 rec on 6 targets, 11 yards
   1. This might have been his worst game in his career, definitely of the season.  Was DOMINATED by Slay...about as bad as I have seen a WR get owned.  

 

He wasn't the only our receivers to get owned that day... Darius Slay is elite and almost totally unheralded he is an absolutely outstanding player. Him vs Zay Jones is like a lion vs a caterpillar.

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Zay is on the film 8 times. 5 of them are drops on him. Two of them are inaccurate throws behind him on Allen and one is a really good play by the DB to knock the ball out. 

 

But there is no way around it Zay Jones didn't catch enough balls again in 2018. And I repeat what I have said elsewhere today about the way people are looking at the makeup of the roster. Your backups have to play teams - especially at receiver and defensive back. John Brown, Cole Beasley and Robert Foster are likely ahead of Zay on the depth chart. They are not special teamers. Andre Roberts will be on the roster as a 6th receiver and return specialist. But that means when it comes to your 4th and 5th receiver someone is gonna have to go out there and play on coverage units. 

 

Zay has played 6 STs snaps in 2 years - all of which (stop the laughing at the back) on the "hands team" attempting to field onside kicks. If an Isaiah McKenzie or a Duke Williams or a David Sills can show themselves as a contributor on Special Teams Zay Jones is in trouble. 

 

My argument on those behind him throws, he still got his hands on it.  Good WR's can make those plays, Zay does not make them very often.  I want WR's who have a bigger catch radius than right between the numbers, which Zay is also on the film dropping too actually.  

 

Im not unrealistic where I expect a WR to make every tough catch, but I want one where the odds are better than near 0.  And thats a fantastic point Gunner and great post about "teams" and how the depth chart will start shaping up behind your main guys.  

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He wasn't the only our receivers to get owned that day... Darius Slay is elite and almost totally unheralded he is an absolutely outstanding player. Him vs Zay Jones is like a lion vs a caterpillar.

 

Well when our 2nd round draft pick is that grossly outmatched by good corners, and Zay isnt even the best corner in the league (albeit he is a great corner), then thats not a good sign.  

 

I will add Robert Foster had 4 rec for 108 yards and a TD in that same game.  So he wasn't getting owned.  

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Alphadawg7 said:

 

My argument on those behind him throws, he still got his hands on it.  Good WR's can make those plays, Zay does not make them very often.  I want WR's who have a bigger catch radius than right between the numbers, which Zay is also on the film dropping too actually.  

 

Im not unrealistic where I expect a WR to make every tough catch, but I want one where the odds are better than near 0.  And thats a fantastic point Gunner and great post about "teams" and how the depth chart will start shaping up behind your main guys.  

 

I think both of those were bad throws to be honest. He had already run past them both not sure they are on him at all. The other are all catches he has to make though. 

 

And it will come down to teams. Maybe Zay comes in and has dedicated himself to that discipline to keep his spot on the roster maybe one of those behind him does it. If I was one of those backup receivers on the Bills right now I would ring Steve Tasker and I would pick his brain and spend every waking moment between now and camp working on my craft as a special teamer. Because that is how I would think I am making a football team. 

[GunnerBill]

26 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Well when our 2nd round draft pick is that grossly outmatched by good corners, and Zay isnt even the best corner in the league (albeit he is a great corner), then thats not a good sign.  

 

I will add Robert Foster had 4 rec for 108 yards and a TD in that same game.  So he wasn't getting owned.  

 

Foster wasn't being covered by Slay for the most part. Slay was awesome that game. And Slay is close to the best in the league. I think he is at worst the 4th best corner in the NFL. No hype, no flash, not on a fashionable team... but just does his job exceptionally well week in week out year in year out. Love him. Zay was embarrassingly outclassed by him - I agree. But Slay is freaking awesome. 

[Alphadawg7]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Foster wasn't being covered by Slay for the most part. Slay was awesome that game. And Slay is close to the best in the league. I think he is at worst the 4th best corner in the NFL. No hype, no flash, not on a fashionable team... but just does his job exceptionally well week in week out year in year out. Love him. Zay was embarrassingly outclassed by him - I agree. But Slay is freaking awesome. 

 

Oh yeah, I totally agree on Slay, he is without a doubt top 5 and all business.  But you want your starting WR to at least challenge a guy like Slay...but like we both said, Zay got Slayed  

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Oh yeah, I totally agree on Slay, he is without a doubt top 5 and all business.  But you want your starting WR to at least challenge a guy like Slay...but like we both said, Zay got Slayed  

 

Yes. Mismatch of epic proportions. 

[Alphadawg7]

4 hours ago, Buffalo03 said:

Maybe Moulds didn't have enough targets because he wasn't earning it on the field his first two years? I know you and other people don't wanna believe that it takes certain players a little extra time to grasp the NFL game but that's what happened to Moulds. Reed and Early were still very productive at that point in their careers. Reed's level of play didn't sink so much from 1996 which was Mould's rookie season until he broke out in 1998. One could even argue with the amount of double coverages that Reed faced in Moulds first two years that Moulds should have feasted on secondaries but he didn't. He broke out in 1998 with the exact same receiving core he had his two prior years. Yes, Moulds had poor QB play his second year but it still didn't affect Andre Reed any. Zay has shown flashes or glimpses of being a more than capable NFL receiver. Sure he's had some drops but he had big progress from year 1 to year 2 and year 1 he had Tyrod who barely threw and had 150 yards a game. Zay should excel this year being in the system for 3 years and having more weapons around him

 

I think you are missing MrEps point.  Moulds didnt break out because he wasn't on the field, getting the reps, getting the targets.  Zay on the other hand has been a starter for 2 years with 176 targets.  Its NOT the same story.  

[JohnC]

4 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I can think of 4 drops off the top of my head. I don't trust any drop stats. I don't remember what game it was but there was some game with Tyrod at QB where the official stat had it at 2 drops and I could distinctly point 4 drops in that game. I don't know what the official drop stat counts, but it's wrong.

 

Zay runs decent routes. He can get open in the short and intermediate routes on probably an average percentage of plays. He isn't complete trash. But he doesn't separate enough to be a full time starting receiver, and when he doesn't separate he literally has a 0% catch rate in contested situations. I'm not pulling that stat from anywhere, but I cant remember a single contested catch. The defender always wins.

 

I'm genuinely curious what do you think he adds to the offense? Brown and Foster add speed. Beasley adds short area quickness and separation. Duke Williams or Sills, it remains to be seen but they may add contested catch ability. What does Zay add? What does he do at an above average level? If he offers nothing but average to below average skill sets, why would you pencil him in as a starter?

It can't be disputed that Zay in his first two years has been a disappointment. He's been pedestrian at best---and that is a generous evaluation. But it is not unusual for receivers to take some time develop before the talent is exhibited. What we know about Zay is that he was super productive in college at a program that was not a top tier program. So it shouldn't be surprising that there would be an adjustment period for him. I'm hoping that his delayed development is similar to Pittsburg's Ju Ju Smith-Shuster who struggled in his first year or so and then became a very productive receiver to the point that the other loquacious receiver, Anthony Brown, complained that he wasn't be targeted enough. 

 

This upcoming season is going to be his make or break year. If he continues to play at his current non-descript level this year he will probably be dispatched. He is never going to be a #1 receiver or maybe not even a #2 receiver but that doesn't mean that he can't elevate his game and be a productive receiver for us.  

[EasternOHBillsFan]

When the Bills brought in Duke, signed Beasley and Brown, AND signed David Sills, that sealed Zay Jones's fate. 

 

Unless Zay got incredibly better as a special teams player, he's gone. Robert Foster has a better chance to make the final cut than Zay.

 

CAVEAT: Without season anding injuries, of course. *knock on all sorts of wood*

Edited May 3, 2019 by EasternOHBillsFan

[Buffalo03]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I think you are missing MrEps point.  Moulds didnt break out because he wasn't on the field, getting the reps, getting the targets.  Zay on the other hand has been a starter for 2 years with 176 targets.  Its NOT the same story.  

I understood his point completely. Moulds didn't see the field or that many targets because he was struggling to learn the game the first 2 years. It had nothing to do with how many receivers we had or that he was behind Reed. He broke out in 98 because it started to click for him. Moulds was very inconsistent his first 2 seasons

[Flip Johnson]

5 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

It isn't absurd.  Williams and Sills both had multiple NFL teams who wanted them.  Neither is likely to last on the practice squad, if they show anything in camp.  The question isn't whether either is better than Zay now.  The question is whether they look like they will be better in November or December, as they gain experience.   They will improve more in the upcoming six months than Zay will.  

 

If they look like they will be better than Zay over time, Zay is in trouble.  Someone will give Buffalo a sixth or seventh round pick for him.

  

 

This is so bizarre. "Multiple NFL teams wanted them" ... sure, as UDFAs. Sills got passed by the whole league. Williams is on a futures contract. I hope they're great, but they are not exactly putting Zay Jones on notice.

 

There are only a few guys in the NFL at age 23 or below that matched or bested Zay Jones' production last year.  He is an ascending player. Juju Smith-Schuster, Corey Davis, Chris Godwin, and DJ Moore were the only 4 WRs in the NFL at or above his level at his age. Do you think those guys are getting cut or traded? 

Edited May 3, 2019 by Flip Johnson

[MasterStrategist]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Really?  Care to provide proof?  Here let me help:  Josh Allen returned against the Jags, so there were 6 games down the stretch with Allen:

1. Week 12 - Bills defeat Jags 24-21:  Zay 0 receptions on 1 target,  for 0 yards and 0 TDs 
   1. Do I even need to say anything here, he did absolutely nothing while Foster had a big game.  
2. Week 13 - Bills lose to Miami:  17-21:  Zay 4 rec on 9 targets for 67 yards, 2 TDs.
   1. First productive game with Allen, still had a catch % of just 44% and failed to make some plays, including one that hurt our ability to win this game late.
3. Week 14 - Bills lose to Jets:  23-27:  Zay 3 rec on 9 targets, for 22 yards, 0 TDs
   1. A 33% catch rate and 22 yards of production...terrible game again
4. Week 15 - Bills defeat Lions:  14-13:  Zay 1 rec on 6 targets, 11 yards
   1. This might have been his worst game in his career, definitely of the season.  Was DOMINATED by Slay...about as bad as I have seen a WR get owned.  
5. Week 16 - Bills lose to pats:  12-24:  Zay 5 rec on 9 targets, 67 yards 1 TD
   1. Looks good to you stat sheet analysts, HOWEVER:  Down 3 scores with 1 minute left in the game, Zay had 4 rec on 8 targets for 34 yards.  He got a free walk in uncovered TD at the end to trick the stat sheet analysts, but he was terrible again this game and got half his yards and a TD on a free play at end of game when it didnt matter. 
6. Week 17 - Bills defeat Miami:  42-17:  Zay 6 rec on 9 targets, 93 yards, 2 TDs
   1. Finally, ONE relevant game with Josh Allen in week 17 against a bad Miami team who didnt even show up.  Not sure I am comfortable claiming he came on down the stretch and banking on his future success off this one game.    

So let me ask you again and others who have made this mythical claim of how Zay caught fire to end the season and found chemistry with Allen.  Where is this made up chemistry?  Where did he catch fire?  

 

In the final 6 games, he only had any real production in both Miami games.  And in the first Miami game, he failed to haul in a critical pass last that contributed significantly to this loss.  He only caught 44% of the passes thrown his way in those 6 games and was utter garbage in weeks 14, 15, and 16 while also failing to make a play we needed in our loss to Miami in week 13.  

 

Its nice to just say things, but its a whole other ball game to know if it really happened or not.  

I think you can toss the Jax and Det game out the window...both games Zay drew a top 5 corner in the NFL playing man to man.  If Foster was being covered by Ramsey or Slay, I bet those stat lines would be flipped.

 

I think we can all agree that many factors are at play , like above, so those direct comparisons are not always apples to apples.

 

Now that said, Zay isnt a #1 receiver, but I think he's been progressing.  And I see his potential as a #2.  It's been unfair to the team and him, that he was practically our #1 last season with only Foster as another weapon....to go along with a horrible line and rookie QB.  

 

Let's see what happens now that we have some other pieces to help dictate coverage away from Zay, the makings of a competent line, and year 2 for our QB.

 

At least we have some competition this year, that should only help everyone and let the best man win that WR4 spot.  I agree with GunnerBill that the WR5/6 will be guys who can also contribute to specials

[Toesy]

IMO Jones is an enigma-he has been productive considering he doesn't have speed, can't make difficult catches and has basically little to no YAC-his NFL highlight reel shows nothing. Somehow he was this superstar in college so yes maybe this year he puts it all together but he hasn't shown anything yet. If you compare his pass catching technique to Sills it is night and day- Sills learned how to catch a football. 

Edited May 3, 2019 by Toesy
typo

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, Flip Johnson said:

 

There are only a few guys in the NFL at age 23 or below that matched or bested Zay Jones' production last year.  He is an ascending player. Juju Smith-Schuster, Corey Davis, Chris Godwin, and DJ Moore were the only 4 WRs in the NFL at or above his level at his age. Do you think those guys are getting cut or traded? 

 

Let's just interrogate this statement a bit. So I've broadened the comparison out and looked at every receiver taken in the 1st or 2nd rounds of the 2017 and 2018 NFL Drafts (plus Godwin who was a 3rd rounder but who you had already referenced).

 

2017 1sts

Corey Davis 2018: 891 yards, 4 Tds, 112 targets, 65 receptions - catch rate of 58%

Mike Williams 2018: 664 yards, 10 Tds, 66 targets, 43 receptions - catch rate of 65%

John Ross 2018: 210 yards, 7 Tds, 58 targets, 21 receptions - catch rate of 36%

 

2017 2nds/3rds

Zay Jones 2018: 652 yards, 7 Tds, 102 targets, 56 receptions - catch rate of 55%

Curtis Samuel 2018: 494 yards, 5 Tds, 65 targets, 39 receptions - catch rate of 60%

Juju 2018: 1426 yards, 7 Tds, 166 targets, 111 receptions - catch rate of 66%

Godwin 2018: 842 yards, 7 Tds, 95 targets, 59 receptions - catch rate of 62%

 

2018 1sts

DJ Moore 2018: 788 yards, 2 Tds, 82 targets, 55 receptions - catch rate of 67%

Calvin Ridley 2018, 821 yards, 10 Tds, 92 targets, 64 receptions - catch rate of 70%

 

2018 2nds

Courtland Sutton 704 yards, 4 Tds, 84 targets, 42 receptions - catch rate of 50%

Dante Pettis 2018: 467 yards, 5 Tds, 45 targets, 27 receptions - catch rate of 60%

Christian Kirk 2018: 590 yards, 3 Tds, 68 targets, 43 receptions - catch rate of 63%

Anthony Miller 2018: 423 yards, 7 Tds, 54 targets, 33 receptions - catch rate of 61%

James Washington 2018: 217 yards, 1 Tds, 38 targets, 16 receptions - catch rate of 42%

DJ Chalk 2018: 174 yards, 0 Tds, 32 targets, 14 receptions - catch rate of 44%

 

The first thing to say is obviously that comparing the 2018 guys rookie years to the 2017 guys sophomore years is a little unfair. Zay's rookie year he 316 yards, 2 touchdowns and a 36% catch rate so some of those 2018 guys can still take a step in year 2. But what this shows us is where Zay ranked in 2018 out of 15 young NFL receivers.

 

He was 8th in yards - exactly halfway;

He was joint 3rd (one of 5 guys tied with 7) in Tds;

He was 3rd in respect of targets;

He was 11th in catch %

 

What this tells us is that while his yards and touchdowns numbers are respectable they are, to an extent, a result of opportunity. Only Corey Davis who is arguably the #1 in Tennessee and Juju who is the #1A in a pass heavy offense in Pittsburgh saw more targets. Of the 2018 guys the only person with a less impressive overall stat line all things considered is John Ross and there absolutely HAS been talk in Cincy about cutting / trading him. My instinct remains that Zay probably makes this roster. But he is far from a lock at this stage. The Bills have improved their receiver corps by bringing in Brown and Beasley and the competition is going to be real. If Zay doesn't ball out in camp and pre-season and one of the "wildcard" guys does or one of them establishes themselves as a core STs player then Zay could still find himself the odd man out.

 

I keep saying it - the two things NFL people look for in receivers before they think about "is he a speed guy or a size guy or a slot guy" which us fans tend to obsess over are: can he separate and can he catch the ball. The reason Zay was drafted in the 2nd round was because in college he excelled in catching the ball. In the NFL so far he has struggled with it. And patience with him will not last forever.

 

 

[MrEpsYtown]

10 hours ago, Buffalo03 said:

I understood his point completely. Moulds didn't see the field or that many targets because he was struggling to learn the game the first 2 years. It had nothing to do with how many receivers we had or that he was behind Reed. He broke out in 98 because it started to click for him. Moulds was very inconsistent his first 2 seasons

 

Just to add, because I don't think the situation for Moulds and Jones are the same. While Moulds is a guy who made it, I feel like there are way more guys who struggled like Zay and washed out. The Troy Williamsons, Charles Rogers, Laquon Treadwells of the world. That is how I view Zay. In the case of a guy like Treadwell, he's only been targeted 91 times in his career. He is going to wash out without ever really getting an opportunity and playing behind better players. The caveat is that we don't know how these guys are performing on the practice field. Zay is playing by default and being targeted by default. I don't feel as if Zay has earned the reps, but that is just my own assumption and bias. I don't remember a lot of the details of why Moulds was bad the first couple of years, I was a 14 year old kid running around, but I don't think Zay is struggling to pick up the NFL game. But I also think, that if the Bills had better players the Zay's first two years, he would not have seen the field. He was given a ton of opportunities and he blew most of them. Maybe he was not ready to be on the field. I actually think he is a smart player, who understands zones and things of that nature. I don't think he is struggling to pick up the game or the offense. He is struggling to make plays, and that is why I question his talent. He is struggling with things like catching the ball, running fast, blocking, making plays on contested catches. He showed some skill in that regard in college, so I have a tiny glimmer of hope that he finds his game. I don't think Jones has been inconsistent his first two years, I think he has been downright awful. I don't know if it's an effort thing, a focus thing, a talent thing, or a little bit of all of that. And if it weren't for what he showed in college, I would have already cut him. My whole thing is , that there are now people on the roster who are hungry and can do things that he can't do. So I very much think that he is on notice. 

 

I think there is a pretty much zero percent chance we see a Moulds like break out because I just don't think Zay Jones is talented enough. He's had the opportunity to show his talent and he has shown very little. I thinks he's a basically David Nelson without the size and with a better prospect pedigree. I am not waiting to see Zay's game click, I am waiting to see his talent, and to me it appears that there isn't much there. There is a place on a roster for a guy like that, but the minute you get some better players, he is out. That's where I am at.  

[MasterStrategist]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Let's just interrogate this statement a bit. So I've broadened the comparison out and looked at every receiver taken in the 1st or 2nd rounds of the 2017 and 2018 NFL Drafts (plus Godwin who was a 3rd rounder but who you had already referenced).

 

2017 1sts

Corey Davis 2018: 891 yards, 4 Tds, 112 targets, 65 receptions - catch rate of 58%

Mike Williams 2018: 664 yards, 10 Tds, 66 targets, 43 receptions - catch rate of 65%

John Ross 2018: 210 yards, 7 Tds, 58 targets, 21 receptions - catch rate of 36%

 

2017 2nds/3rds

Zay Jones 2018: 652 yards, 7 Tds, 102 targets, 56 receptions - catch rate of 55%

Curtis Samuel 2018: 494 yards, 5 Tds, 65 targets, 39 receptions - catch rate of 60%

Juju 2018: 1426 yards, 7 Tds, 166 targets, 111 receptions - catch rate of 66%

Godwin 2018: 842 yards, 7 Tds, 95 targets, 59 receptions - catch rate of 62%

 

2018 1sts

DJ Moore 2018: 788 yards, 2 Tds, 82 targets, 55 receptions - catch rate of 67%

Calvin Ridley 2018, 821 yards, 10 Tds, 92 targets, 64 receptions - catch rate of 70%

 

2018 2nds

Courtland Sutton 704 yards, 4 Tds, 84 targets, 42 receptions - catch rate of 50%

Dante Pettis 2018: 467 yards, 5 Tds, 45 targets, 27 receptions - catch rate of 60%

Christian Kirk 2018: 590 yards, 3 Tds, 68 targets, 43 receptions - catch rate of 63%

Anthony Miller 2018: 423 yards, 7 Tds, 54 targets, 33 receptions - catch rate of 61%

James Washington 2018: 217 yards, 1 Tds, 38 targets, 16 receptions - catch rate of 42%

DJ Chalk 2018: 174 yards, 0 Tds, 32 targets, 14 receptions - catch rate of 44%

 

The first thing to say is obviously that comparing the 2018 guys rookie years to the 2017 guys sophomore years is a little unfair. Zay's rookie year he 316 yards, 2 touchdowns and a 36% catch rate so some of those 2018 guys can still take a step in year 2. But what this shows us is where Zay ranked in 2018 out of 15 young NFL receivers.

 

He was 8th in yards - exactly halfway;

He was joint 3rd (one of 5 guys tied with 7) in Tds;

He was 3rd in respect of targets;

He was 11th in catch %

 

What this tells us is that while his yards and touchdowns numbers are respectable they are, to an extent, a result of opportunity. Only Corey Davis who is arguably the #1 in Tennessee and Juju who is the #1A in a pass heavy offense in Pittsburgh saw more targets. Of the 2018 guys the only person with a less impressive overall stat line all things considered is John Ross and there absolutely HAS been talk in Cincy about cutting / trading him. My instinct remains that Zay probably makes this roster. But he is far from a lock at this stage. The Bills have improved their receiver corps by bringing in Brown and Beasley and the competition is going to be real. If Zay doesn't ball out in camp and pre-season and one of the "wildcard" guys does or one of them establishes themselves as a core STs player then Zay could still find himself the odd man out.

 

I keep saying it - the two things NFL people look for in receivers before they think about "is he a speed guy or a size guy or a slot guy" which us fans tend to obsess over are: can he separate and can he catch the ball. The reason Zay was drafted in the 2nd round was because in college he excelled in catching the ball. In the NFL so far he has struggled with it. And patience with him will not last forever.

 

 

Great assessment of the past two WR drafts, and overall summary.

 

Agree that separation and catching are two high level, very important qualities that evaluators look at.  Catch skills/quality is a trait that most fans can at least attempt to evaluate.  However, separation is really complex....(man vs zone defense, what routes and complementary WR routes are being ran, what depth/did the receiver get where he was supposed to be on time, what # read was he on the play, etc).

 

I'd say anyone short of the coaches, who tries to evaluate separation is not providing a thorough/accurate assessment.  

 

I agree, I think Zay has stiffer competition vs years past, and that he will ultimately make the roster.  Let the best man win!

 

Just my opinion, but saying that Zay will be traded or cut (not make the roster) is almost as outlandish as saying Dion Dawkins won't make this team.  All of the inconsistencies and improved positional competition exists there too...just saying? 

[NewEra]

Maybe he suffered from Dion Dawkins syndrome.  Aka: lack of completion.  I’m eager to see if he can step up his game now that he’s not competing against Andre Holmes for targets. 

 

I do believe that he makes the team but I wouldn’t it if we cut his ***

[Laughing Coffin]

15 hours ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

When the Bills brought in Duke, signed Beasley and Brown, AND signed David Sills, that sealed Zay Jones's fate. 

 

Unless Zay got incredibly better as a special teams player, he's gone. Robert Foster has a better chance to make the final cut than Zay.

 

CAVEAT: Without season anding injuries, of course. *knock on all sorts of wood*

 

So when the Bills ignored the WR position for the entire draft, signed a CFL player AND picked up an UDFA, you think that sealed Zay's fate he doesn't make the roster????  You're right that it did seal Zay's fate though, but it's his fate of staying on the team. 

 

You can see from the draft war room video released yesterday that the Bills didn't even have WR listed as a position of need in the draft. 

 

2020 NFL Draft is loaded with top WR talent.  This will be a make or break year for Zay and his place on this roster for next season

Edited May 3, 2019 by Laughing Coffin