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Bills/Redskins Potential Trade Down


RPbillsfan

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Looking at the current situation with Alex Smith (out for 2019) and probably done I see a possible trade down now for the Bills.

 

Lets assess the QB market

 

FA - Bridgewater, Tyrod Taylor

Potential FA - Nick Foles

Will be traded - Joe Flacco, Blake Bortles

Will they be moved? Dalton, Tannehill

 

Teams with QB needs:

 

NY Giants

Jacksonville

Denver

Washington

 

Bengals and Dolphins probably keep what they have.

 

Betting Bridgewater goes to Jacksonville

Giants to draft Haskins

 

Do Redskins reach out to trade for Flacco or look for a QB in the draft.

 

If the trade comes to be, Bills get pick 15 and Redskins 2nd

 

My picks:

 

TJ Hockenson at 15

Hakeem Butler at 40

Chris LIndstrom at 46

 

Your thoughts

 

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15 minutes ago, RPbillsfan said:

Looking at the current situation with Alex Smith (out for 2019) and probably done I see a possible trade down now for the Bills.

 

Lets assess the QB market

 

FA - Bridgewater, Tyrod Taylor

Potential FA - Nick Foles

Will be traded - Joe Flacco, Blake Bortles

Will they be moved? Dalton, Tannehill

 

Teams with QB needs:

 

NY Giants

Jacksonville

Denver

Washington

 

Bengals and Dolphins probably keep what they have.

 

Betting Bridgewater goes to Jacksonville

Giants to draft Haskins

 

Do Redskins reach out to trade for Flacco or look for a QB in the draft.

 

If the trade comes to be, Bills get pick 15 and Redskins 2nd

 

My picks:

 

TJ Hockenson at 15

Hakeem Butler at 40

Chris LIndstrom at 46

 

Your thoughts

 

 

The way that I see it, Washington, Denver, and NYG probably have to draft a QB.  All three have a veteran QB on their roster with a fairly big salary.  They won’t have the cap space to sink more $$$$ into a QB.  Even if they did sign a Bridgewater or Flacco, it wouldn’t preclude them from drafting a QB.  

 

Jacksonville may move on from Bortles and if they do they will likely sign a FA QB (maybe even a Tyrod Taylor).  But that is a stop gap QB, and they will also need to draft a QB.  

 

This is good for the Bills as you have at least 4 teams very serious about drafting a QB, with two of those teams drafting after them.  I can see Haskins, Jones and Locke going in the Top 10.  I can’t see Murray getting drafted that high or a team trading up for him.  But if I’m Brandon Beane, I start sending out rumors how Denver is interested in Jones or Lock to make Washington feel the need to leapfrog them.

 

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1 minute ago, BillyWhiteShows said:

 

The way that I see it, Washington, Denver, and NYG probably have to draft a QB.  All three have a veteran QB on their roster with a fairly big salary.  They won’t have the cap space to sink more $$$$ into a QB.  Even if they did sign a Bridgewater or Flacco, it wouldn’t preclude them from drafting a QB.  

 

Jacksonville may move on from Bortles and if they do they will likely sign a FA QB (maybe even a Tyrod Taylor).  But that is a stop gap QB, and they will also need to draft a QB.  

 

This is good for the Bills as you have at least 4 teams very serious about drafting a QB, with two of those teams drafting after them.  I can see Haskins, Jones and Locke going in the Top 10.  I can’t see Murray getting drafted that high or a team trading up for him.  But if I’m Brandon Beane, I start sending out rumors how Denver is interested in Jones or Lock to make Washington feel the need to leapfrog them.

 

 

I still don't understand how Drew Lock can be a top 10 pick. I like him. I think he has a chance to develop into a starting QB. But he has way too many holes to go top 10. I can see how Haskins can be a top 10 pick... it is a bit of a reach but he is a Quarterback - they get reached on that is fine. Murray if he is tall enough and convinces teams he wants to play football is a top 10 type pick. Jones I still need to do a lot more work on but liked what I saw in the Senior Bowl. But Drew Lock is a day 2 pick. If a team drafts him top 10 they have lost their collective minds. 

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1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I still don't understand how Drew Lock can be a top 10 pick. I like him. I think he has a chance to develop into a starting QB. But he has way too many holes to go top 10. I can see how Haskins can be a top 10 pick... it is a bit of a reach but he is a Quarterback - they get reached on that is fine. Murray if he is tall enough and convinces teams he wants to play football is a top 10 type pick. Jones I still need to do a lot more work on but liked what I saw in the Senior Bowl. But Drew Lock is a day 2 pick. If a team drafts him top 10 they have lost their collective minds. 

It's funny, in watching the senior bowl game I saw Jones stock drop as I believe his arm strength is meh and although he has intangibles don't think he is going to be looked at as a 1st round pick.  Lock I believe has an NFL arm but needs development time.

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58 minutes ago, RPbillsfan said:

Looking at the current situation with Alex Smith (out for 2019) and probably done I see a possible trade down now for the Bills.

 

Lets assess the QB market

 

FA - Bridgewater, Tyrod Taylor

Potential FA - Nick Foles

Will be traded - Joe Flacco, Blake Bortles

Will they be moved? Dalton, Tannehill

 

Teams with QB needs:

 

NY Giants

Jacksonville

Denver

Washington

 

Bengals and Dolphins probably keep what they have.

 

Betting Bridgewater goes to Jacksonville

Giants to draft Haskins

 

Do Redskins reach out to trade for Flacco or look for a QB in the draft.

 

If the trade comes to be, Bills get pick 15 and Redskins 2nd

 

My picks:

 

TJ Hockenson at 15

Hakeem Butler at 40

Chris LIndstrom at 46

 

Your thoughts

 

If Bridgewater liked the Saints he could re-sign as not sure Brees would play past 2020.

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1 minute ago, GETTOTHE50 said:

I’ll be disappointed if we only get the redskins 2nd. I know Beane is capable of ripping off Snyder like Fisher did. 

 

I go back to last year....................

 

The Bills gave up TWO second rounders to move up 5 spots.

 

The Bills are getting the Redskins 2nd and 3rd rounders to move up for a QB. The Bills set the market last year for what it is worth to move into the top 10 from teens (or 12).

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The trade with the Redskins is not a new idea by any means.  It kind of hinges on Denver.  Denver is scheduled to pick 10th, but if they want to draft a QB and get wind that Washington wants to jump ahead of them to get their QB, they could pull a preemptive trade to get far enough ahead that Washington can't beat them to their QB.  As for who they might draft with #15 and their 2 second round picks, there are a whole host of possibilities.  It will also be affected by free agency.  Dalton Risner would be another outstanding value at #15.  Deebo Samuel would be a good pick at #40.  Eric McCoy or Isaiah Buggs could be solid picks with #46.

Edited by TigerJ
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40 minutes ago, RPbillsfan said:

It's funny, in watching the senior bowl game I saw Jones stock drop as I believe his arm strength is meh and although he has intangibles don't think he is going to be looked at as a 1st round pick.  Lock I believe has an NFL arm but needs development time.

 

Drew was inaccurate. Jones was accurate. It was only an all star game but that fundamentally is what it comes down to. I am not saying I like Jones better than Lock. I haven't done any deep study on Jones yet so I simply am not sufficiently informed to take that view. What I am saying is I preferred Jones's game last night. The same Drew Lock flaws on his college tape were there last night too. And I like Drew Lock. I expected to be the guy who liked him more than most at this point. Instead I having to hold back the horses from declaring him a top 10 pick. 

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7 minutes ago, TigerJ said:

The trade with the Redskins is not a new idea by any means.  It kind of hinges on Denver.  Denver is scheduled to pick 10th, but if they want to draft a QB and get wind that Washingto wants to jump ahead of them to get their QB, they could pull a preemptive trade to get far enough ahead that Washington can't beat them to their QB.  As for who they might draft with #15 and their 2 second round picks, there are a whole host of possibilities.  It will also be affected by free agency.  Dalton Risner would be another outstanding value at #15.  Deebo Samuel would be a good pick at #40.  Eric McCoy or Isaiah Bugs could be solid picks with #46.

 

Poor QB play killed him at SC, but he seems to be the perfect kind of player McDermott loves.

 

And his return ability is intriguing too.

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19 minutes ago, njbuff said:

I think last year's worst QB (Rosen) is better than any QB in this draft............. by a freaking mile.

 

So I was low (and hopefully wrong) on Josh Allen last year - he was my QB6 - but Haskins (who currently is my QB1 this year) would have been QB5 in last year's draft.  I don't think this is a good Quarterback class and having seen a year of Josh Allen I am relieved we have a promising guy and are not trying to find one here. 

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3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So I was low (and hopefully wrong) on Josh Allen last year - he was my QB6 - but Haskins (who currently is my QB1 this year) would have been QB5 in last year's draft.  I don't think this is a good Quarterback class and having seen a year of Josh Allen I am relieved we have a promising guy and are not trying to find one here. 

I agree, I don't like this class at all and Allen is so much more in the area of arm talent, size, speed and attitude.  He would be the hands down number 1 QB in this draft.

6 minutes ago, njbuff said:

 

Poor QB play killed him at SC, but he seems to be the perfect kind of player McDermott loves.

 

And his return ability is intriguing too.

Love Deebo, I'm thinking if we could pull off a deal to move down and also get Redskins 2nd we could really make major strides.  The picks would be tied to our FA moves of course.  I'm assuming a pair of OL, a WR and TE at a minimum and also a resigning of Jordan Phillips at DT.

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1 hour ago, twist_to_open said:

The Redskins have so much money already tied up in Smith, I can't see them shelling out big bucks for a free agent or trade, seems the best bet would be a cheaper rookie contract, but I'm not a GM....

Also  Flacco would not only tie  up a huge contract, they would have to trade draft picks to get him.

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1 hour ago, twist_to_open said:

The Redskins have so much money already tied up in Smith, I can't see them shelling out big bucks for a free agent or trade, seems the best bet would be a cheaper rookie contract, but I'm not a GM....

This was my thought as well. 

 

They have Smith under contract for 4 more years and still owe him over $20M in bonus money. Unless they are 100% sure that he is done, I can’t see them trading for another big money QB. 

 

Maybe they take a swing on someone like Bridgewater if they can get him cheap enough. But I think they will still almost definitely take a QB somewhere in the draft. Whether that’s in the 1st or not I do not know. But drafting a QB gives them someone under contract for at least the next 4 years. If Smith comes back in 2020, they have a potential trade chip. If not, they didn’t waste a season waitain’t on Smith that could have been spent developing a QB for the future. 

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1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I still don't understand how Drew Lock can be a top 10 pick. I like him. I think he has a chance to develop into a starting QB. But he has way too many holes to go top 10. I can see how Haskins can be a top 10 pick... it is a bit of a reach but he is a Quarterback - they get reached on that is fine. Murray if he is tall enough and convinces teams he wants to play football is a top 10 type pick. Jones I still need to do a lot more work on but liked what I saw in the Senior Bowl. But Drew Lock is a day 2 pick. If a team drafts him top 10 they have lost their collective minds. 

 

We’ll see...We all know how QB’s have had their stock skyrocket at the combine.  Also there are a number of teams desperate to draft a franchise QB.  I think that could lead to a lock or Murray go higher than we anticipated.  

 

I still think there will be 4 QB’s drafted in Round 1.  If 2 are off the board before the Bills pick at #9, they are in a great position to draft before Denver.

 

Edited by BillyWhiteShows
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The market for a QB trade down isn't great but a lower top 10 pick (as the Bills have) could be an interesting spot where some mid-level teams try to trade up. I don't think a trade down will resort in a huge haul but a 2nd rounder and a late rounder to trade down 6-9 spots would be a very nice return. 

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5 hours ago, Foxx said:

am i having deja vu?

At least its better than a 3 and 4, but I dont know that Im moving down 6 spots for just a 2.  I think I want their 5.

3 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

That trade seems a little light. Throw in next years first and we might think about it.

 

We need players. As Booger said in the Pro Bowl today " picks Don t win games, players do. "

 

How far down the road are you willing to kick the can?

Thats way too much.  If its next years first then there is no 2.  Next yr 1st and this years 3 would be fair.  These guys dont appear to be Mayfield or JA.

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4 hours ago, njbuff said:

 

I go back to last year....................

 

The Bills gave up TWO second rounders to move up 5 spots.

 

The Bills are getting the Redskins 2nd and 3rd rounders to move up for a QB. The Bills set the market last year for what it is worth to move into the top 10 from teens (or 12).

 

 

12th to 7th as we did last year was 300 points difference in the standard chart. This year's trade would only be 250.

 

It's also based on which team is desperate and how much so. A 2nd and 3rd would seem like really good value to me.

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5 hours ago, RPbillsfan said:

Looking at the current situation with Alex Smith (out for 2019) and probably done I see a possible trade down now for the Bills.

 

Lets assess the QB market

 

FA - Bridgewater, Tyrod Taylor

Potential FA - Nick Foles

Will be traded - Joe Flacco, Blake Bortles

Will they be moved? Dalton, Tannehill

 

Teams with QB needs:

 

NY Giants

Jacksonville

Denver

Washington

 

Bengals and Dolphins probably keep what they have.

 

Betting Bridgewater goes to Jacksonville

Giants to draft Haskins

 

Do Redskins reach out to trade for Flacco or look for a QB in the draft.

 

If the trade comes to be, Bills get pick 15 and Redskins 2nd

 

My picks:

 

TJ Hockenson at 15

Hakeem Butler at 40

Chris LIndstrom at 46

 

Your thoughts

 

Crikey mate. Use yer bloody eyes

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4 hours ago, BillyWhiteShows said:

 

We’ll see...We all know how QB’s have had their stock skyrocket at the combine.  Also there are a number of teams desperate to draft a franchise QB.  I think that could lead to a lock or Murray go higher than we anticipated.  

 

I still think there will be 4 QB’s drafted in Round 1.  If 2 are off the board before the Bills pick at #9, they are in a great position to draft before Denver.

 

 

I think there will be 2 QBs in the first round and a maximum of 1 in the top 10. 

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7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I still don't understand how Drew Lock can be a top 10 pick. I like him. I think he has a chance to develop into a starting QB. But he has way too many holes to go top 10. I can see how Haskins can be a top 10 pick... it is a bit of a reach but he is a Quarterback - they get reached on that is fine. Murray if he is tall enough and convinces teams he wants to play football is a top 10 type pick. Jones I still need to do a lot more work on but liked what I saw in the Senior Bowl. But Drew Lock is a day 2 pick. If a team drafts him top 10 they have lost their collective minds. 

 

Remember the 2011 draft when Locker, Gabbert and Ponder all taken in the Top 12, all taken too high.

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9 hours ago, RPbillsfan said:

Looking at the current situation with Alex Smith (out for 2019) and probably done I see a possible trade down now for the Bills.

 

Lets assess the QB market

 

FA - Bridgewater, Tyrod Taylor

Potential FA - Nick Foles

Will be traded - Joe Flacco, Blake Bortles

Will they be moved? Dalton, Tannehill

 

Teams with QB needs:

 

NY Giants

Jacksonville

Denver

Washington

 

Bengals and Dolphins probably keep what they have.

 

Betting Bridgewater goes to Jacksonville

Giants to draft Haskins

 

Do Redskins reach out to trade for Flacco or look for a QB in the draft.

 

If the trade comes to be, Bills get pick 15 and Redskins 2nd

 

My picks:

 

TJ Hockenson at 15

Hakeem Butler at 40

Chris LIndstrom at 46

 

Your thoughts

 

 

 

Well, if the Giants or Jaguars do take Haskins, I don’t see any need for the Redskins to trade up.  If Haskins is available, then the ‘skins might want to move up to get ahead of Denver.

 

Personally, I would be wary of a 3rd year sophomore QB with only 14 starts - he’s not going to see any playing time in 2019.

 

Beane has said that the Bills really don’t need to be in the top 10.  I disagree and hope the Bills stay put at #9, but maybe Beane thinks that Jonah Williams or DK Metcalf will fall out of the top 10.  Those would be the 2 guys I’d target in round one.

 

Then again, I believe Colin Kaepernick is available - maybe the Redskins can sign him and this will all be moot.

.

 

Edited by The Senator
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2 hours ago, LittleJoeCartwright said:

 

Remember the 2011 draft when Locker, Gabbert and Ponder all taken in the Top 12, all taken too high.

 

I do and I believe the NFL has tried to correct itself since. Just because you want someone to be a franchise Quarterback doesn't mean they will be. To me taking the likes of Drew Lock (and potentially Daniel Jones though I still need to watch more of him) in the top 10 or 12 is on a par with those 2011 reaches and the NFL has generally stayed away from them since. 

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10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think there will be 2 QBs in the first round and a maximum of 1 in the top 10. 

 

I am pretty sure there will be more than 2.  I can’t see teams passing up the chance to draft QB’s in round 1, especially when a first round pick gets you an option year.  I think we’ll see 4 in round 1, not sure how many will be Top 10 - but I would guess at least 2

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I posted these numbers in the Crabbs mock thread, and figured they applied here as well, do as you please :)

 

"...Last years move up by Buffalo is a very similar situation and they paid a 27% and 29% premium to move up into the top ten according to the JJ and RH trade charts respectively. Thats the market value I think they would be looking for in return in a possible trade down with Washington.

 

Buffalo trading picks 9 and 167 (pick 8 round 6, pre-comp pick), for Washington's first 3 picks, 15, 46, and 76 would be a premium increase of 24% and 28% according to the JJ and RH trade charts. Sounds like a win win, the Skins jump Denver for their QB of the future, Buffalo moves back and gets a top end prospect and 2 day 2 picks..."

 

Seems pretty comparable value wise considering both moves are/were for a QB. 

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6 minutes ago, BillyWhiteShows said:

 

I am pretty sure there will be more than 2.  I can’t see teams passing up the chance to draft QB’s in round 1, especially when a first round pick gets you an option year.  I think we’ll see 4 in round 1, not sure how many will be Top 10 - but I would guess at least 2

 

It depends if teams think these guys are good.

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2 minutes ago, P51 said:

I posted these numbers in the Crabbs mock thread, and figured they applied here as well, do as you please :)

 

"...Last years move up by Buffalo is a very similar situation and they paid a 27% and 29% premium to move up into the top ten according to the JJ and RH trade charts respectively. Thats the market value I think they would be looking for in return in a possible trade down with Washington.

 

Buffalo trading picks 9 and 167 (pick 8 round 6, pre-comp pick), for Washington's first 3 picks, 15, 46, and 76 would be a premium increase of 24% and 28% according to the JJ and RH trade charts. Sounds like a win win, the Skins jump Denver for their QB of the future, Buffalo moves back and gets a top end prospect and 2 day 2 picks..."

 

Seems pretty comparable value wise considering both moves are/were for a QB. 

Very well researched.  Based on skins cap situation this would help them.  

 

Bills then draft

 

15, 40, 46, 74, 76 the first two days

 

Wow

 

Then we have 2 picks in round 4 & 5 and 2 in the 7th

 

Total roster rebuild with FA acquisitions

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17 hours ago, njbuff said:

 

I go back to last year....................

 

The Bills gave up TWO second rounders to move up 5 spots.

 

The Bills are getting the Redskins 2nd and 3rd rounders to move up for a QB. The Bills set the market last year for what it is worth to move into the top 10 from teens (or 12).

What happened last year hardly matters.  There won't be a prospect like Josh Allen available at 9 this year and there probably won't be multiple teams vying for the pick.  Every draft is different and moving up to 7 is different than moving to 9.  And don't forget, the Bills' second round picks last year were both late in the second round. 

 

The Bills would probably be very happy to drop back to 15 and pick up the 'Skins' second round pick.  It's very unlikely they will be able to get and second and a third rounder to drop back six slots.

Edited by mannc
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Love these bloated contracts of older QB handcuffing their teams.  Washington almost has to take one based on their situation.  Can anyone tell me how good this crop of QBs is compared to '11 (Newton, Locker, Gabbert, Ponder, Dalton) and '13 (EJ, Geno, Glennon, Barkley)

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