If Mike Mayock had run our draft last five years

[major]

I too thought it crazy when I heard Mayock had been hired as raiders GM. Thought it would be fun to see who he would have drafted in 1st round had he been our GM the past five years. Here you go: 2018/Josh Allen, 2017/Reuben Foster, 2016/Robert Nkemdiche, 2015/no 1st round pick, 2014/Zach Martin

[thenorthremembers]

3 minutes ago, major said:

I too thought it crazy when I heard Mayock had been hired as raiders GM. Thought it would be fun to see who he would have drafted in 1st round had he been our GM the past five years. Here you go: 2018/Josh Allen, 2017/Reuben Foster, 2016/Robert Nkemdiche, 2015/no 1st round pick, 2014/Zach Martin

We'd have a pro bowler, a defensive tackle who doesn't like football, a linebacker who shouldnt be in the league, and a maybe franchise qb.   So anywhere from 50 to 25 percent success rate, which is par for the course.    Should note all of those guys have immense talent, two just happen to be head cases.

[CNYfan]

Whatever happened to Nkemdiche?   He was a character concern I remember then showed up at the draft with a crew of guys dressed like mobsters.

[TigerJ]

I'm assuming the OP is referring to Mayock's annual mock draft.  Different mock drafters have their own agenda when making a mock draft.  Sometimes they are making predictions as to what each team might do.  Sometimes they are doing the mock to reflect what they themselves would do if they were the GM.  Sometimes they will be up front about their agenda, sometimes not.  Does anyone know if Mayock explains which one he is doing?  If it is a prediction, then he might have a very different take when he's doing it as a GM.

Edited January 1, 2019 by TigerJ

[Nextmanup]

When will football fans catch on that the "professionals" who actually do the picking in the league are just as terrible as you and I?  

 

The guys don't have a clue who's going to be good, great, or bust, and it's why you never, ever, trade UP in a draft and it's always a great idea to trade down.  Get more picks; more picks is more throws of the dice = greater chance to luck out.

 

Mayock has actually enjoyed one of the better reputations around the country as a talent evaluator during the lead up to the draft each year.  

 

 

[Scorp83]

29 minutes ago, TigerJ said:

I'm assuming the OP is referring to Mayock's annualo mock draft.  Different mock drafters have their own agenda when making a mock draft.  Sometimes they are making predictions as to what each team might do.  Sometimes they are doing the mock to reflect what they themselves would do if they were the GM.  Sometimes they will be up front about their agenda, sometimes not.  Does anyone know if Mayock explains which one he is doing?  If it is a prediction, then he might have a very different take when he's doing it as a GM.

I don't think he's talking about Mock Drafts ?

 

You can't control the draft... I feel like Mike is the most accurate Draft Analyst out here, his mocks never go as plan, but the players always end up turning into good players 3-4 years later.

 

That's my fear for him, Gruden doesn't have enough time imo... so they're not going to give Mayock that much time either. 

 

So many players he said would be great, turned up great....not just good.

 

Big Ben

Antonio Brown

Kerryon Johnson (soon will be)

Mike Evans 

Odell Beckham over Sammy

Khalil Mack 

Russell Wilson 

Cam Newton (when everyone went Gabbert)

 

Just to name a few

 

Heck... he even hit on EJ in the worst QB draft ever! EJ ended up be the best one... out of all the sucky prospects. & before you grill me on that comment, remember nobody knew how bad it was & Mayock was the main one saying "this is a bad class & if I had to take one of these players, I'll take the mobile big arm kid from Florida State"

 

That's knowing your stuff... though the best move was to just punt on the whole QB class

[TigerJ]

I don't disagree about Mayock's relative expertise in the universe of prognosticators, but when the OP names names of players Mayock would have had Buffalo draft over the past 5 years, I don't know where those names would have come from if not Mayock's mock drafts.

[major]

27 minutes ago, TigerJ said:

I don't disagree about Mayock's relative expertise in the universe of prognosticators, but when the OP names names of players Mayock would have had Buffalo draft over the past 5 years, I don't know where those names would have come from if not Mayock's mock drafts.

I pulled those from his mock drafts

[hondo in seattle]

1 hour ago, Nextmanup said:

When will football fans catch on that the "professionals" who actually do the picking in the league are just as terrible as you and I?  

 

The guys don't have a clue who's going to be good, great, or bust, and it's why you never, ever, trade UP in a draft and it's always a great idea to trade down.  Get more picks; more picks is more throws of the dice = greater chance to luck out.

 

Mayock has actually enjoyed one of the better reputations around the country as a talent evaluator during the lead up to the draft each year.  

 

 

 

True enough.  But what does he know about running a winning organization?  How will he organize his scouts and what instructions will he give them?  What credibility will he have with his staff?  

 

Choosing Mayock is odd even when you assume Gruden is going to be the de facto GM.  

 

Then again, Mayock is a smart guy who's picked a lot of brains in his decades hanging out with scouts and other personnel guys.  Maybe there's hope for him - but he's not who I would have chosen if I was Chucky.   

[TigerJ]

28 minutes ago, major said:

I pulled those from his mock drafts

Thanks, major, for confirming what I figured had to be the case.

[Just Joshin']

37 minutes ago, major said:

I pulled those from his mock drafts

That is all you could do.  The issue is the mock does not reflect the realities of the actual picks so the picks may have been different.

 

I also do not know the intent of his mock: is it what he would do or what he thinks the team would do?

[Mickey]

Does this mean that the Dolphins or some other team will soon be hiring Mel Kiper as their GM? Is this the world we now live in? 

[formerlyofCtown]

1 hour ago, Nextmanup said:

When will football fans catch on that the "professionals" who actually do the picking in the league are just as terrible as you and I?  

 

The guys don't have a clue who's going to be good, great, or bust, and it's why you never, ever, trade UP in a draft and it's always a great idea to trade down.  Get more picks; more picks is more throws of the dice = greater chance to luck out.

 

Mayock has actually enjoyed one of the better reputations around the country as a talent evaluator during the lead up to the draft each year.  

 

 

while I do agree Mayock is one of the better evaluators.  I do not agree that You would be on the same level as NFL evaluators.

[MJS]

21 minutes ago, Just Joshin' said:

That is all you could do.  The issue is the mock does not reflect the realities of the actual picks so the picks may have been different.

 

I also do not know the intent of his mock: is it what he would do or what he thinks the team would do?

 

Pretty sure it is a prediction of what the teams will do. He has his top players at each position, according to him, and his mocks don't always align because he bases his mocks on inside information he comes into, or thinks he comes into, plus positions of need for each team.

[Albany,n.y.]

1 hour ago, Scorp83 said:

Heck... he even hit on EJ in the worst QB draft ever! EJ ended up be the best one... out of all the sucky prospects. & before you grill me on that comment, remember nobody knew how bad it was & Mayock was the main one saying "this is a bad class & if I had to take one of these players, I'll take the mobile big arm kid from Florida State"

 

That's knowing your stuff... though the best move was to just punt on the whole QB class

I think it was common knowledge that the 2013 draft was the worst QB draft in years before the draft was held.  I wrote on another board that January that the Bills shouldn't draft a QB and compared it to the 2007 group of QBs, and that was years after I stopped studying the draft like I did in the 1990s and early 2000s.  About the only ones who didn't know were Nix & Whaley, evidenced by the fact they were the only ones who took a QB in the 1st round that year.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, Scorp83 said:

You can't control the draft... I feel like Mike is the most accurate Draft Analyst out here, his mocks never go as plan, but the players always end up turning into good players 3-4 years later.

 

That's my fear for him, Gruden doesn't have enough time imo... so they're not going to give Mayock that much time either. 

 

So many players he said would be great, turned up great....not just good.

 

Big Ben

Antonio Brown

Kerryon Johnson (soon will be)

Mike Evans 

Odell Beckham over Sammy

Khalil Mack 

Russell Wilson 

Cam Newton (when everyone went Gabbert)

 

 

Mayock thought Gabbert should be the first QB off the board and is on record as such.

 

I'm not sure what you mean by "Gruden doesn't have enough time".  He is reported to have a 10 year, $10M a year fully-guaranteed contract.

[Happy]

55 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

True enough.  But what does he know about running a winning organization?  How will he organize his scouts and what instructions will he give them?  What credibility will he have with his staff?  

 

Choosing Mayock is odd even when you assume Gruden is going to be the de facto GM.  

 

Then again, Mayock is a smart guy who's picked a lot of brains in his decades hanging out with scouts and other personnel guys.  Maybe there's hope for him - but he's not who I would have chosen if I was Chucky.   

 

I saw the segment on NFLN talking to Mayock about the new gig.  Mayock stated that his relationship with Gruden went back to the mid to late 1990s when Gruden was OC of the Eagles, though Mayock didn't really elaborate on this.  So they've known each other for roughly 20 years.  Mayock just stated that the Raiders situation makes sense from both his side and Gruden's side.

 

Reading between the lines, Gruden got his 'yes' man who he's comfortable with and will not rock the boat; I think this is exactly who Chucky wanted.  Mayock gives Gruden a list of players to fill a position, Gruden makes the pick.  Can't imagine it's too far off from this.

 

 

[Big Turk]

2 hours ago, Scorp83 said:

I don't think he's talking about Mock Drafts ?

 

You can't control the draft... I feel like Mike is the most accurate Draft Analyst out here, his mocks never go as plan, but the players always end up turning into good players 3-4 years later.

 

That's my fear for him, Gruden doesn't have enough time imo... so they're not going to give Mayock that much time either. 

 

So many players he said would be great, turned up great....not just good.

 

Big Ben

Antonio Brown

Kerryon Johnson (soon will be)

Mike Evans 

Odell Beckham over Sammy

Khalil Mack 

Russell Wilson 

Cam Newton (when everyone went Gabbert)

 

Just to name a few

 

Heck... he even hit on EJ in the worst QB draft ever! EJ ended up be the best one... out of all the sucky prospects. & before you grill me on that comment, remember nobody knew how bad it was & Mayock was the main one saying "this is a bad class & if I had to take one of these players, I'll take the mobile big arm kid from Florida State"

 

That's knowing your stuff... though the best move was to just punt on the whole QB class

Gruden doesn't have enough time? Dude has a 10 year contract and Davis isnt gonna eat it

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I'm not sure what you mean by "Gruden doesn't have enough time".  He is reported to have a 10 year, $10M a year fully-guaranteed contract.

When the unmarked white ambulance pulls up, and the attendants in the plain white coats get out, it will be Chuckie’s time...

[MrEpsYtown]

3 hours ago, CNYfan said:

Whatever happened to Nkemdiche?   He was a character concern I remember then showed up at the draft with a crew of guys dressed like mobsters.

He's been pretty inconsistent and hurt as well. He was finally showing some signs of life as a 3 Tech in a 4-3. Seemed like a poor fit in the 3-4. Then he tore his ACL I believe. I actually always liked him as a prospect, but I'm not surprised he has struggled to find consistency. Could be an interesting buy low depending on what happens in Arizona. 

Edited January 1, 2019 by MrEpsYtown

[Southern Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

When will football fans catch on that the "professionals" who actually do the picking in the league are just as terrible as you and I?  

 

The guys don't have a clue who's going to be good, great, or bust, and it's why you never, ever, trade UP in a draft and it's always a great idea to trade down.  Get more picks; more picks is more throws of the dice = greater chance to luck out.

 

Mayock has actually enjoyed one of the better reputations around the country as a talent evaluator during the lead up to the draft each year.  

 

 

It’s not about the top of the draft. The experts find the UFAs like Foster or Andre Reed at Kutztown State. We all know the top players but they know everyone. I disagree that they are just as bad as you and I. 

[peterpan]

One thing we should all remember IS...... That we, as fans, only see one side of the coin.  The raiders see both sides.

 

What I mean by that is we do not know anything about teams scouting, but the raiders do.  Everyone knows about Mayock, he's on TV!

 

There's a chance Mayock was actually doing better than their current scounts. 

[3rdand12]

what interests me is that Two guys who have been inside the locker rooms and had access to Coaches and processes, both College and Pro  , are leaving Media to build something together.

should worth watching .

 

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

3 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

The guys don't have a clue who's going to be good, great, or bust, and it's why you never, ever, trade UP in a draft and it's always a great idea to trade down.  Get more picks; more picks is more throws of the dice = greater chance to luck out.

Sounds like you don’t need an analytics department, or draft gurus...sounds like you either need a probability and statistics professor, or Nathan Detroit.  ?

4 minutes ago, peterpan said:

One thing we should all remember IS...... That we, as fans, only see one side of the coin.  The raiders see both sides.

Can anyone truly say what Chuckie sees?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Mickey said:

Does this mean that the Dolphins or some other team will soon be hiring Mel Kiper as their GM? Is this the world we now live in? 

 

From your mouth to God's ears, Mickey  ?

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

From your mouth to God's ears, Mickey  ?

Hey!  No mentioning ‘the Big Guy’!  You’ll upset some of the contributors!

[mjt328]

4 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

When will football fans catch on that the "professionals" who actually do the picking in the league are just as terrible as you and I?  

 

 

Uh, yeah.  No.

 

The average fan might be OK picking from among the top 25-30 prospects... but only after pouring over tons of scouting reports and mock drafts compiled by OTHER sources with actual expertise. 

 

Tell the average guy to start from scratch, then put together a big-board of 300-400 college prospects. 

It would be embarrassing to say the least.

 

[boater]

4 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

When will football fans catch on that the "professionals" who actually do the picking in the league are just as terrible as you and I?  

The professionals are better than Joe Average fan.

 

Case in point:  McBean have done very well with UDFA's. No way Joe Average could come anywhere close to doing as well.

 

The pros have the edge provided by information gathered by the scouting department.

[bouds]

Thing about Mock drafts is that they don't necessarily denote who the person would actually take if they were GM.  Most of these mocks try to fit need with player, and not BPA.  Mayock was always one of the most accurate predictors because he waited until the last minute, used all available info, and then put up his last mock day of draft or right before draft day, he strove for accuracy more than anything else.

[hondo in seattle]

35 minutes ago, boater said:

The professionals are better than Joe Average fan.

 

Case in point:  McBean have done very well with UDFA's. No way Joe Average could come anywhere close to doing as well.

 

The pros have the edge provided by information gathered by the scouting department.

 

That's the thing.  NFL GMs have tremendous resources.  Millions of dollars to spend.  Lots of college and pro scouts who are all fully immersed in football.  Countless connections on college campuses and around the NFL.  Hundreds of hours of tape.  Hours and hours of interviews.  Private detectives to do background work.  

 

In the end,  there's still an element of luck.  But Average Joe can't replicate the level of due diligence done by a NFL GM.  

And Mayock's never had these kinds of resources before.  Will he know how to use them as wisely as a GM who's worked in the NFL for the past 15 years and worked his way up from a regional scout position?  

Edited January 1, 2019 by hondo in seattle

[Gunsgoodtime]

5 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

When will football fans catch on that the "professionals" who actually do the picking in the league are just as terrible as you and I?  

 

The guys don't have a clue who's going to be good, great, or bust, and it's why you never, ever, trade UP in a draft and it's always a great idea to trade down.  Get more picks; more picks is more throws of the dice = greater chance to luck out.

 

Mayock has actually enjoyed one of the better reputations around the country as a talent evaluator during the lead up to the draft each year.  

 

 

Mayock is the only one I really put any stock into as he seems to do his homework and I like his assesments

[Alphadawg7]

5 hours ago, major said:

I too thought it crazy when I heard Mayock had been hired as raiders GM. Thought it would be fun to see who he would have drafted in 1st round had he been our GM the past five years. Here you go: 2018/Josh Allen, 2017/Reuben Foster, 2016/Robert Nkemdiche, 2015/no 1st round pick, 2014/Zach Martin

 

Those are mocks though, doesn’t mean that’s who he would have picked based on how the real draft played out and we were on the clock.

[Scorp83]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Mayock thought Gabbert should be the first QB off the board and is on record as such.

 

I'm not sure what you mean by "Gruden doesn't have enough time".  He is reported to have a 10 year, $10M a year fully-guaranteed contract.

He's not seeing the end of that deal... he traded Mack & Cooper... he's already on the Hot Seat... he'll be gone after his 3rd year

[major]

12 minutes ago, Scorp83 said:

He's not seeing the end of that deal... he traded Mack & Cooper... he's already on the Hot Seat... he'll be gone after his 3rd year

This is Mark Davis we are talking about. He will keep gruden the full 10 years