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Josh Allen's progress


mjt328

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3 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

 

3 man rush from the Jets, Allen should have more time to decide where to go with it (not that he didnt have enough time for the read the guy suggests). With more time, I think he checks it down to DiMarco? coming in from the top.

 

 

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The Bills have no offensive system. There are no staple plays they gain easy yardage on. 

 

How many pregames does Murphy, Kelso, Chris Brown and Simon waste saying worn out phrases like we have to “get Shady going”.

 

The truth is McCoy is done, Ivory is 200 years old and Murphy is a career practice squader running behind a below average line. 

 

So this offense goes as Allen makes it go on broken plays. Running around looking for busted coverages and scrambling lanes.

 

Greg Cossel said on Friday that Allen is not seeing the field, so he is falling back on hero ball, and that means you get the spectacular mixed with scatter shot accuracy. 

 

That’s why I said last week that Allen needs to hit the weight room and squeeze every last drop out of his athletic ability and play like a young Roethlisberger extending plays. He’s never going to pick you apart like Steve Young. 

 

 

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JOSH ALLEN RUNNING TOO MUCH

Not only were special teams poor but so was the play of both the offense and the defense. Yes, Josh Allen rushed for 101 yards, but he also only hit on only 50% of his throws, had a fumble and threw two interceptions. Both interceptions were poor throws but the first one should never have been thrown in the first place as he was throwing across his body.
 
What is disappointing about Josh’s play right now is that he is making mistakes he shouldn’t be making at this point in his development. When playing from the pocket he is taking too long to process and is having trouble finding secondary receivers.
 
In recent games he has decided to run when his first or second receiver isn’t open. While he has been very productive doing so, he is failing to see that not only throwing the ball but throwing the ball to the proper receiver with accuracy is his primary job. Until he is able to stay in the pocket, go through a progression, find the open man and get the ball out of his hand quickly he won’t be a successful NFL quarterback. Yes, this takes time to learn to do properly but in Allen’s case it’s taken longer than we would have thought.
 
Granted the offensive line is below average and the wide receiver corps is young and inexperienced and those facts don’t help Allen mature as a player. It remains to be seen how he will play when he has a better supporting cast hopefully next year.
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40 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

 

Good analysis.


The second clip I think he has wrong though. Allen looks left, but comes off it. 

 

I think he's air mailed it to McKenzie and Foster just happens to be behind him. 

29 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said:

The one where he said he was staring down Foster, I thought was an overthrow to McKenzie at least that is how it looked to me live. Like he was looking at Foster, but then saw McKenzie coming open in front of that and just over threw it

 

I just said the same thing.

 

He completely misses McKenzie by about 8 feet. 

 

Foster just happened to be behind him. 

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1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

Good analysis.


The second clip I think he has wrong though. Allen looks left, but comes off it. 

 

I think he's air mailed it to McKenzie and Foster just happens to be behind him. 

 

You could be right, but it's hard to tell. It would be nice to hear Allen talk through these. 

 

 

Pretty good perspective and context here by Rodak. 

 

 

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I can't break down Josh Allen's metrics, but from the eye test, for me... He looks like a better QB than I thought he would.  Quite honestly, from all the pre-draft analysis I thought this guy was gonna suck!   He's proving that to be wrong.  Allen looks like a competent NFL QB to me and that's very promising considering this is his rookie season.  

No doubt he's had some flub passes, but he's also had several darts right into the hands or chest of his receivers and they get dropped, or called back due to a penalty.  His numbers look worse compared to what I've actually seen on the field.  His rushing game might not get factored in to his overall rating but it is part of his game and he's picked up a bunch of first downs with his legs.

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On 12/8/2018 at 9:34 AM, RoyBatty is alive said:

 

 

Interesting perspective.  Might be valid, although I think the data set is so limited.  Lets look at it another way.

 

For whatever reason, especially considering our O line, our inability for RBs to routinely run the ball, penalties, bad WRs, we are constantly in 2nd and long, 3rd and long. Cossell is correct, he does look for the big play a lot.  The last play of Miami he could have hit McCoy for an easy completion short but with a lot of room to run for the first,  but he didn't check it down, he goes for first downs and TDs. Bills QBs over the years have checked down way too much so often we see the Bills get 7 yards when they need 8.  Allen doesn't do that.  To me it is refreshing,and certainly alot more exciting.  Brady can dial up 9 yards on a 3rd and 8 consistently, last 10 years Bills would get 7.  Brady has been in the same system and has had great possession WRs and RBs for that matter. 

 

Allen has played 8 games, his #1 WR was just a bust he was cut.   We all know the quality of the rest of our WRs and TEs.  Let Allen stay in the system, actually go into next season as the bona fide #1, get some chemistry with receivers. Maybe just maybe you are seeing that with Zay Jones.  He missed a wide open Jones in the end zone and that was accuracy, that was miscommunication/lack of chemistry,  Allen starts trusting his receivers more he wont run as much and will be more confident to check down.


Yep, I agree that to be a great QB, you have to make the routine plays, routinely.  Make those 5-6 yard passes routinely.  But in order to do those things you have to have an offense that executes those plays well.  The RB's have to do more than get 2 yards, the penalties that turn the 3rd and 4 to 3rd in 9 have to stop, the O line has to protect to prevent someone blowing up a play, and the receivers have to run the correct route and then catch the ball.   Bills as a team don't execute these things routinely on every play.  

I think Josh has to just play within himself more, take the snap and make the best play available and don't try to extend every play.  Would like to see the offense work more on quick plays and getting first downs while still taking the occasional shot downfield.  

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Just now, PittsforDave said:

Allen reminds me of EJ Manuel. He has one good drive then goes into a lull. We need a complete game from our qb. 

 

He needs a complete complement of weapons as well as a functional OL to help him along with his own individual improvement as a QB. 

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25 minutes ago, Socal-805 said:

 

I see very little progress: you can't win in this league throwing 52 % completions.  It just won't happen.

 

He's one of the LOWEST rated QB's in the league.

 

 

 

A qb rating would be based on year long performance.  This thread is about progression.  

 

He has gotten more accurate than when he started.  Why would the progression stop? 

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33 minutes ago, Socal-805 said:

 

I see very little progress: you can't win in this league throwing 52 % completions.  It just won't happen.

 

He's one of the LOWEST rated QB's in the league.

 

Are you people watching these games?

 

Yesterday, I saw drop after drop after drop.  1st half the stat of "3 dropped passes" was put up on the screen and in the 2nd half Jones had that blatant and unacceptable drop on a nicely thrown ball from Allen.

 

That's AT LEAST 4 blatant drops.  If those WRs catch those passes he's over 60% as a passer in the Jets game.  The exact same thing happened in Miami last week, where he ALSO would have been over 60% as a passer if our WRs/TEs could catch the damn ball.  These aren't even crazy, acrobatic catches.  Most of these are routine passes our guys just drop.

 

But yeah, let's look at his statistics and see that his completion % is below 50% and he is therefore inaccurate, but ignore all those drops along with the FACT that Allen has the highest depth of target in the NFL at 11.02 yards and he's been climbing the rungs of the "average length of completions" ladder in the NFL since he started the season, where he's now 7th in the NFL where he was 16th early this season, which means early this season he was missing a lot of those deep passes, but over the season he's been hitting a lot more of them.

 

He's getting better.  You just have to actually WATCH him play!

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3 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Are you people watching these games?

 

Yesterday, I saw drop after drop after drop.  1st half the stat of "3 dropped passes" was put up on the screen and in the 2nd half Jones had that blatant and unacceptable drop on a nicely thrown ball from Allen.

 

That's AT LEAST 4 blatant drops.  If those WRs catch those passes he's over 60% as a passer in the Jets game.  The exact same thing happened in Miami last week, where he ALSO would have been over 60% as a passer if our WRs/TEs could catch the damn ball.  These aren't even crazy, acrobatic catches.  Most of these are routine passes our guys just drop.

 

But yeah, let's look at his statistics and see that his completion % is below 50% and he is therefore inaccurate, but ignore all those drops along with the FACT that Allen has the highest depth of target in the NFL at 11.02 yards and he's been climbing the rungs of the "average length of completions" ladder in the NFL since he started the season, where he's now 7th in the NFL where he was 16th early this season, which means early this season he was missing a lot of those deep passes, but over the season he's been hitting a lot more of them.

 

He's getting better.  You just have to actually WATCH him play!

 

I don't know how you can watch him play and not think he is making significant progress. 

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28 minutes ago, PittsforDave said:

Have the Bills ever had those?

EJ Manuel isn't even close to whiffing the ball park of Allen.

 

If you think they are at a similar level than one another then you are just flat out wrong.  Allen next year will take a big leap from where he is right now in which right now he is already pretty much the whole offense, Manuel never was no such thing.

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There are certain throws an NFL quarterback needs to make, in order to be successful.

 

Early in the season, Josh Allen was making those throws occasionally.  Rare flashes that happened maybe 1-2 times per game.

Over the last 3 weeks, Allen has been making those throws frequently.  We are seeing those nice passes 5-10 times per game.

The key now, is getting Allen to make those throws more consistently.  Cut down on the handful of inaccurate misses.  Learn when to throw the ball away, instead of heaving a terrible pass into traffic.  Identify the check-downs, and don't always go for the big play.

 

 

For all the WHINERS about Allen's completion percentage...  He went 18-36 on Sunday (50 percent).  If Clay and Jones don't drop those easy catches, he's up to 55 percent.  Two more completions, and he's already above 61 percent.  THAT'S IT. 

Upgrade his O-Line protection in the offseason, so he's not rushing and scrambling on every play.  With better blocking from the front-five, Daboll can also send out the RBs and TEs for easy check-down passes (which he can't do now, because they need to help block).

 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Magox said:

EJ Manuel isn't even close to whiffing the ball park of Allen.

 

If you think they are at a similar level than one another then you are just flat out wrong.  Allen next year will take a big leap from where he is right now in which right now he is already pretty much the whole offense, Manuel never was no such thing.

For the sake of the team, he better take a huge leap next year. I see a lot of common comparisons between EJ and Josh. 

 

He needs to continue to improve, next year we will have our answer. 

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Allen looks like a rookie that has tremendous skill and should give fans confidence that he could succeed at a high level.  Given what he has to work with, his lower completion percentage doesn't bother me at all yet. I really don't see his accuracy to be an issue.  I enjoy watching him play, we should feel optimistic that with quality players around(in front) of him, he could be a very good QB. His arm is amazing.

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2 minutes ago, PittsforDave said:

For the sake of the team, he better take a huge leap next year. I see a lot of common comparisons between EJ and Josh. 

 

He needs to continue to improve, next year we will have our answer. 

Nothing I've seen with Allen has made me even think of EJ for a second.

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9 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

I don’t know how anyone at this point can be certain that he is our franchise QB for the next decade+.  

 

I think he has a 50/50 chance of becoming the teams next franchise QB or being off the team by the end of his rookie contract. 

 

This is all being rushed too soon.  Way too early to tell simply because the NFL Defensive Coordiantors still haven’t had their chance to counter move yet.

 

I said the same thing with Tyrod.

 

Tyrod made his move in Season 1 and showed the league his game.  Then Defensive Coordiantors had a full off season to work on a response for Season 2.  Where Taylor failed is he never had a response to the Defensive Coordinators counter move.

 

Allen will finish this season and put his game on tape.  Then next season the defense coordinators will have their say and it will be up to Allen to have a counter move.

 

then we will have a better idea

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18 minutes ago, PittsforDave said:

For the sake of the team, he better take a huge leap next year. I see a lot of common comparisons between EJ and Josh. 

 

He needs to continue to improve, next year we will have our answer. 

josh is making runs and throws ej could only dream about

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Why is daboll not letting Allen throw 40 times a game? The bills were not making the playoffs this year. There were drives yesterday where the bills ran on 1st and 2nd down. WHY?! We know what we have in ivory and Mccoy. Let allen throw all day and let this o line learn how to pass protect. Why are they trying to force the run? 

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2 minutes ago, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:

 

This is all being rushed too soon.  Way too early to tell simply because the NFL Defensive Coordiantors still haven’t had their chance to counter move yet.

 

I said the same thing with Tyrod.

 

Tyrod made his move in Season 1 and showed the league his game.  Then Defensive Coordiantors had a full off season to work on a response for Season 2.  Where Taylor failed is he never had a response to the Defensive Coordinators counter move.

 

Allen will finish this season and put his game on tape.  Then next season the defense coordinators will have their say and it will be up to Allen to have a counter move.

 

then we will have a better idea

 

It usually doesn't take a full season for Defensive Coordinators to adjust.

 

Tyrod Taylor had plenty of bad games with us in that first year. 

He never really got better.  He never really got worse.  He was just up-and-down, depending on how effective defenses were at keeping him in the pocket.

 

One strategy I saw the Jets using yesterday (mostly in the second half) was using a spy, but then sending him on a delayed blitz.  It seemed that Allen was less willing to take off with defenders running at him, as opposed to standing flat-footed a few yards away.  It will be interesting to see if the Lions employ a similar tactic.

 

No doubt, Allen will eventually need to be able to beat teams with his arm. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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