Josh Allen looks on par with this year’s other rookie QBs

[Success]

There was some pre draft analysis of Allen that I’m too lazy to find that calculated he would have a 74% completion rate had he thrown - on average - as many short passes as the other 3 guys.

[thebandit27]

7 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

 

Yes, there is, as provided by hard data. NFL Accuracy is rarely improved significantly - Most QBs fail to improve college accuracy by 3 points. Most QBS with college completion percentage 56% or below are NFL busts. Many QBs below 59% college completion rates are busts. Most successful NFL QBs had college completion percentages above 59% and even more were very close to 60%.

Read critically, lol.

 

1 minute ago, BullBuchanan said:

 

Thanks for proving my point.

Done. thanks.

 

Failure to read is no excuse.

 

Matthew Stafford had a college completion rate of 57% - 62% in the pros (+5%)

Matt Ryan was 59.9% - 65% in the pros (+5%)

Carson Palmer was 59.1% - 62% in the pros (+3%)

Drew Brees--the most accurate NFL passer of all time--was 61.1% - 67% in the pros (+6%)

Russell Wilson was 60.1%, and that's only because he had an ultra-efficient senior season of 72% passing; in his first 3 seasons as a starter, he was 57% - 64% in the pros (+4%)

 

 

Maybe you need to take a step back and consider what you're actually arguing here.  I know you haven't actually considered what I've said, since you continue to insist on an arbitrary line in the sand.

[Kelly the Dog]

2 minutes ago, Success said:

There was some pre draft analysis of Allen that I’m too lazy to find that calculated he would have a 74% completion rate had he thrown - on average - as many short passes as the other 3 guys.

I totally believe that. Not to mention that it was a jailbreak on half of his passes and he was running for his life there like he is here.

[Augie]

6 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said:

Not to mention that completion percentage often does not have a lot to do with accuracy. I was a Tyrod fan (by default) but he was not an accurate QB. Many of his completions were caught but not accurate. And guys like Eli Manning would literally throw 5 WR screens in a game to OBJ which made him 5-5 in the stats, which makes your numbers skyrocket and nothing to do with accuracy. Capt Checkdown had good completion percentage because he checked down all the time. Allen doesn't check down,             doesn't throw many screens to WR or RB and is usually looking downfield to guys who are never wide open and rarely make great catches.  

 

After watching Darnold highlights from last week I was shocked to see how many times the WR caught the ball without a DB within 8 yards of them! THAT would make it easier to put up some numbers. I just caught the highlights, but I don’t see us with guys running free like that. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 minute ago, Fred Clause said:

You need to pull Sammy’s rib out of your butt,  Allen had the least experience and was in the worst situation for learning in College. Everyone including draft experts said he was raw and needed a year or two to develop. And here you and other morons are calling him a bust after 5 games. He’s also in the worse position talent wise and has had the most difficult schedule. But hey your right, the kids toast...You would go far as a GM LOL . 

Again, sounds like excuses are being made for Allen's poor play. I'm not even asking the guy to be good or average. Just show me slightly below average and I'll be happy. I'm not at all okay with way below average which Allen is. Nobody should be. But I guess we can just make excuse after excuse. 

 

The only hope we have is we can our coach after the season and bring in a Reid, Sean Payton, Pederson, Shannhan, McVay type to take over. A guy that knows how to build an offense based on personnel and play design.

 

I was shocked as was just about everyone else at the turn around Goff had with a new coach. Maybe that can happen for Allen. But let's face it, odds are not great at all that it will happen. But at this point, McDermott has to go because it's the only way it will actually have a chance to happen. And that kind of kills me because McDermott has put one heck of a defense on the field. But a good QB trumps a good defense.

[Kelly the Dog]

1 minute ago, Augie said:

 

After watching Darnold highlights from last week I was shocked to see how many times the WR caught the ball without a DB within 8 yards of them! THAT would make it easier to put up some numbers. I just caught the highlights, but I don’t see us with guys running free like that. 

Yeah, just a tad easier.

[BullBuchanan]

Just now, thebandit27 said:

 

 

Failure to read is no excuse.

 

Matthew Stafford had a college completion rate of 57% - 62% in the pros (+5%)

Matt Ryan was 59.9% - 65% in the pros (+5%)

Carson Palmer was 59.1% - 62% in the pros (+3%)

Drew Brees--the most accurate NFL passer of all time--was 61.1% - 67% in the pros (+6%)

Russell Wilson was 60.1%, and that's only because he had an ultra-efficient senior season of 72% passing; in his first 3 seasons as a starter, he was 57% - 64% in the pros (+4%)

 

 

Maybe you need to take a step back and consider what you're actually arguing here.  I know you haven't actually considered what I've said, since you continue to insist on an arbitrary line in the sand.

 

Jesus christ. you seem unwilling or incapable to use the most basic forms of logic. Again you have submitted examples that prove my point, and you can't seem to wrap your head around the fact that if you find an exception to the rule, it doesn't mean that the rule is not valid. This is pretty basic stuff, man. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

It looks as if 26 stopped his rants 

 

 

to many to argue with I guess. 

[Augie]

3 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

 

Jesus christ. you seem unwilling or incapable to use the most basic forms of logic. Again you have submitted examples that prove my point, and you can't seem to wrap your head around the fact that if you find an exception to the rule, it doesn't mean that the rule is not valid. This is pretty basic stuff, man. 

 

If you can find a half dozen exceptions without too much effort, maybe the “rule” is more of an “idea”? 

[thebandit27]

2 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

 

Jesus christ. you seem unwilling or incapable to use the most basic forms of logic. Again you have submitted examples that prove my point, and you can't seem to wrap your head around the fact that if you find an exception to the rule, it doesn't mean that the rule is not valid. This is pretty basic stuff, man. 

 

I don't really think I've said anything all that complicated to have you this lost in the discussion.

 

Take a breath, slow down, and consider what argument you're trying to make.  Furthermore, consider what I actually said in response.

 

Or don't...I won't lose sleep either way.

1 minute ago, Augie said:

 

If you can find a half dozen exceptions without too much effort, maybe the “rule” is more of an “idea”? 

 

Ok, now I'm relieved...for a second there, Bull had me questioning whether the point was clear.

[Kelly the Dog]

Just now, Augie said:

 

If you can find a half dozen exceptions without too much effort, maybe the “rule” is more of an “idea”? 

Yep. And you may even have to slip "ill-conceived" between the " - and the i - in idea.

[BullBuchanan]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I don't really think I've said anything all that complicated to have you this lost in the discussion.

 

Take a breath, slow down, and consider what argument you're trying to make.  Furthermore, consider what I actually said in response.

 

Or don't...I won't lose sleep either way.

 

Ok, now I'm relieved...for a second there, Bull had me questioning whether the point was clear.

This in't worth wasting time on. If you don't know that most != 3-5 out of hundreds you need to stop picking fights on the internet.

I have to get back to analyzing insights, as part of my job.

[oldmanfan]

Just now, BullBuchanan said:

This in't worth wasting time on. If you don't know that most != 3-5 out of hundreds you need to stop picking fights on the internet.

I have to get back to analyzing insights, as part of my job.

I hope you use better statistical analysis than used here.

[BullBuchanan]

Just now, oldmanfan said:

I hope you use better statistical analysis than used here.

 

bank account checks out.

[thebandit27]

Just now, BullBuchanan said:

This in't worth wasting time on. If you don't know that most != 3-5 out of hundreds you need to stop picking fights on the internet.

I have to get back to analyzing insights, as part of my job.

 

3-5 current NFL starters out of 32 isn't exactly "3-5 out of hundreds", which is the point.

 

Also, I've heard that if you have to tell someone how smart/rich/successful you are, then maybe you should ask yourself why they can't see it without being told.

 

1 minute ago, BullBuchanan said:

 

bank account checks out.

 

[GoBills808]

16 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

 

Failure to read is no excuse.

 

Matthew Stafford had a college completion rate of 57% - 62% in the pros (+5%)

Matt Ryan was 59.9% - 65% in the pros (+5%)

Carson Palmer was 59.1% - 62% in the pros (+3%)

Drew Brees--the most accurate NFL passer of all time--was 61.1% - 67% in the pros (+6%)

Russell Wilson was 60.1%, and that's only because he had an ultra-efficient senior season of 72% passing; in his first 3 seasons as a starter, he was 57% - 64% in the pros (+4%)

 

 

Maybe you need to take a step back and consider what you're actually arguing here.  I know you haven't actually considered what I've said, since you continue to insist on an arbitrary line in the sand.

And you're leaving out our very own Tuhrod Taylor...this particular argument's raison d'etre. 

[BullBuchanan]

Just now, thebandit27 said:

 

3-5 current NFL starters out of 32 isn't exactly "3-5 out of hundreds", which is the point.

 

Also, I've heard that if you have to tell someone how smart/rich/successful you are, then maybe you should ask yourself why they can't see it without being told.

 

 

 

I looked at over a hundred going back to 83, not 32 NFL starters. You cherry picked a small sample size that you thought proved your point and literally none of them were within the parameters I laid out. At least KellyTheDog found Kelly. You also chose to use strong final seasons as a knock against their stats for some reason, instead of the growth being the reason they were successful.

[Warcodered]

14 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

 

Jesus christ. you seem unwilling or incapable to use the most basic forms of logic. Again you have submitted examples that prove my point, and you can't seem to wrap your head around the fact that if you find an exception to the rule, it doesn't mean that the rule is not valid. This is pretty basic stuff, man. 

Maybe you should clarify what your point is because maybe he doesn't know it though I'm starting to suspect it's more likely you don't know it.

[LABILLBACKER]

10 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

False! He's truthfully behind the curve of the others as expected.  

Yes he is. His flaws are obvious. And the numbers don't lie.

Qb Rating 

Darnold.   83.7

Rosen.     75.5

Mayfield  72.8

Allen.       61.8

....Darnold's wr unit are not much different than ours.

Edited October 16, 2018 by LABILLBACKER

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, BullBuchanan said:

 

I looked at over a hundred going back to 83, not 32 NFL starters. You cherry picked a small sample size that you thought proved your point and literally none of them were within the parameters I laid out. At least KellyTheDog found Kelly. You also chose to use strong final seasons as a knock against their stats for some reason, instead of the growth being the reason they were successful.

 

Funny, I looked at current NFL QBs to see if any of them made dramatic improvements in their accuracy from college to the NFL, which is literally exactly what I said about 5 posts ago.

 

I give up...either you can follow the point or you can't (or won't, which is probably more likely since you don't read like someone that lacks logic).

 

Oh well, sometimes two people talk past each other without getting on the same page.  Maybe in the next topic.

[Kmart128]

10 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

False! He's truthfully behind the curve of the others as expected.  

 

Disagree. He seems to be in the same situation that Mitch Trubisky was in last year in Chicago.

[26CornerBlitz]

2 minutes ago, Kmart128 said:

 

Disagree. He seems to be in the same situation that Mitch Trubisky was in last year in Chicago.

 

This is in comparison to the other QBs who were drafted in the top ten in 2018.  So what are you disagreeing with? 

[Fred Clause]

1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said:

 

This post kind of proves my point. Allen was 56.2 lower than everyone there by a lot.

What a moron, that’s one or two passes out of 40 and doesn’t take in account the offense run. It’s as useless overall as your posts are.

45 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Yes he is. His flaws are obvious. And the numbers don't lie.

Qb Rating 

Darnold.   83.7

Rosen.     75.5

Mayfield  72.8

Allen.       61.8

....Darnold's wr unit are not much different than ours.

His line and receiving options are better and he has played against weaker opponents. He also was considered more pro ready. So again you and people like you are clueless.

[peterpan]

11 hours ago, Troll Toll said:

None of these guys are > 60% completions. Statistically, I’d group Allen, Rosen, Mayfield together. Darnold’s numbers are slightly better, but he has had the easiest schedule. Eyeball test too, I’m not seeing much separation amongst these QBs.

Seriously??  It's pretty eye opening.  Watch some of Rosens videos on YouTube.  Rosen/Allen is a stark difference.  It's like Aaron Rodgers/Losman obvious

[Teddy KGB]

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

 

....Darnold's wr unit are not much different than ours.

 

Robbie Anderson is a burner 

 

Enunwa and Kearse are solid 

 

I think their OL is much better as well as evidenced by Isaiah Cromwell’s recent bout of awesomeness 

[stony]

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Yes he is. His flaws are obvious. And the numbers don't lie.

Qb Rating 

Darnold.   83.7

Rosen.     75.5

Mayfield  72.8

Allen.       61.8

....Darnold's wr unit are not much different than ours.

Darnold was the "guy" all along.  I refuse to believe anything to the contrary.  The Jets stole the march on us. 

[Kmart128]

1 hour ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

This is in comparison to the other QBs who were drafted in the top ten in 2018.  So what are you disagreeing with? 

 

I'm just going based off the thread title. It say rookie QBs not necessarily this years... Mitch was a rookie last year and it seems that Allen's rookie year is very similar to Mitch's... And he seems fine.

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, Kmart128 said:

 

I'm just going based off the thread title. It say rookie QBs not necessarily this years... Mitch was a rookie last year and it seems that Allen's rookie year is very similar to Mitch's... And he seems fine.

 

Thread Title: Josh Allen looks on par with this year’s other rookie QBs

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

7 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Thread Title: Josh Allen looks on par with this year’s other rookie QBs

Like you stick to the thread topic.   

 

Example:  you hijacked the Titans fans thread the other week because you refuse to post in my thread.  

 

Am I really that intimidating?

 

 

 

To the OP.  

YES he has. We’re sorry you don’t agree with the majority here.  

 

Edited October 16, 2018 by ShadyBillsFan

[paulbills]

I just don't see it, even Rosen is performing better on an arguably slightly worse cardinals team, Darnold and Mayfield are balling out, Allen is definitely lacking behind the pack although not by a huge margin. 

[Zerovoltz]

14 hours ago, Troll Toll said:

None of these guys are > 60% completions. Statistically, I’d group Allen, Rosen, Mayfield together. Darnold’s numbers are slightly better, but he has had the easiest schedule. Eyeball test too, I’m not seeing much separation amongst these QBs.

 

I would point back to the QBR rating that many on this thread are refering to...takes into account the situation, personel etc to produce a rating.  Josh Allens rating is not good.

 

10 hours ago, BillsEnthusiast said:

 

Thank you, Jerry! Very cool!

 

 

 

5 hours ago, Augie said:

 

After watching Darnold highlights from last week I was shocked to see how many times the WR caught the ball without a DB within 8 yards of them! THAT would make it easier to put up some numbers. I just caught the highlights, but I don’t see us with guys running free like that. 

 

 

....in Allen's sort of defense... pouring over the numbers, Allen does have a rather high Air Yards Per attempt.  You couple this with is leauge high(worst) time to throw and it tells you the kid is sitting back there too long waiting to throw downfield....wich even for someone with as big an arm as his....is not optimal because his completion pct on such throws is POOR.  ....this does coralate with his college days when he would do pretty much the same thing.

 

This further points to some of the obvious flaws pointed out throughout the thread that Allen can't read defenses and make the right throw........I almost wouldn't say he "can't" read a defense...I'd almost contend he doesn't bother to try...he seems to want to look deep (the long time to throw) and throw deep (the long air yards per attempt) but those are low pct throws and he tries to make them more often than he should.  Some have pointed out that there have been some designed plays, quick slants etc that he hesitates to attempt despite the play design.....the numbers all bear this out.

 

I don't hide that I am an Allen doubter, but I don't think it's impossible that he could develop.  A starting point for the coaches would be to emphasize short high pct throws.  (another argument entirely since some of his short stuff is wild looking)  ..but they need to continue to call some of those slants etc like they have done already, and tell the kid to execute that play as it is drawn.  

 

If that Comp % is ever going to get up to an acceptable level, he has got to become proficient at the quick read/short passing game.  

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

This was going to be about slow growth.

 

We all knew that.

 

This team has already seemed to exceed expectations in a lot of ways nationally and I think if Allen finished that game, we'd be 3-3 and that would have made absolutely anyone happy at this point based on the schedule.

 

My biggest disappointment has been Daboll. I think there's a way to properly develop a QB while still allowing him to throw, primarily quick timing patterns and play action bombs. Other than the Minnesota game, I think Daboll has done a poor job there.

 

But I'm also okay with Josh taking a seat for the next month or so. I think he can learn for a bit from Anderson while on the bench.

 

But yeah, I don't get the folks thinking he was supposed to look like a HOFer right away.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

9 hours ago, Zerovotlz said:

 

I would point back to the QBR rating that many on this thread are refering to...takes into account the situation, personel etc to produce a rating.  Josh Allens rating is not good.

 

 

 

 

 

 

....in Allen's sort of defense... pouring over the numbers, Allen does have a rather high Air Yards Per attempt.  You couple this with is leauge high(worst) time to throw and it tells you the kid is sitting back there too long waiting to throw downfield....wich even for someone with as big an arm as his....is not optimal because his completion pct on such throws is POOR.  ....this does coralate with his college days when he would do pretty much the same thing.

 

This further points to some of the obvious flaws pointed out throughout the thread that Allen can't read defenses and make the right throw........I almost wouldn't say he "can't" read a defense...I'd almost contend he doesn't bother to try...he seems to want to look deep (the long time to throw) and throw deep (the long air yards per attempt) but those are low pct throws and he tries to make them more often than he should.  Some have pointed out that there have been some designed plays, quick slants etc that he hesitates to attempt despite the play design.....the numbers all bear this out.

 

I don't hide that I am an Allen doubter, but I don't think it's impossible that he could develop.  A starting point for the coaches would be to emphasize short high pct throws.  (another argument entirely since some of his short stuff is wild looking)  ..but they need to continue to call some of those slants etc like they have done already, and tell the kid to execute that play as it is drawn.  

 

If that Comp % is ever going to get up to an acceptable level, he has got to become proficient at the quick read/short passing game.  

 

 

When you #1 WR drops nearly 70% of the passes thrown his way    ....... Any QB's #'s will SUCK

 

 

[DrDawkinstein]

15 hours ago, stony said:

Darnold was the "guy" all along.  I refuse to believe anything to the contrary.  The Jets stole the march on us. 

 

 

Yep, going back to the "leaked white board" pic that only had college names on it, it was USC at the top of the list with Montana next.

 

The Jets straight-up out maneuvered us and pulled the trigger on a trade to get into the proper position while Beane was still holding his junk.

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

 

Yep, going back to the "leaked white board" pic that only had college names on it, it was USC at the top of the list with Montana next.

 

The Jets straight-up out maneuvered us and pulled the trigger on a trade to get into the proper position while Beane was still holding his junk.

 

Nope

 

The Colts came right out and said that they had other offers but didn't want to move down past 6.

[Jauronimo]

18 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

 

bank account checks out.

How much to do you make? Do you know Skooby?

[Troll Toll]

On 10/16/2018 at 6:38 PM, peterpan said:

Seriously??  It's pretty eye opening.  Watch some of Rosens videos on YouTube.  Rosen/Allen is a stark difference.  It's like Aaron Rodgers/Losman obvious

3 picks and 3 fumbles from Rosen tonight, I still don’t see why one would come to the conclusion he is doing significantly better than Allen.

[BB@Shooter]

On 10/16/2018 at 5:25 AM, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Your eyeballs need adjustment.  Allen looks lost out there all too often.  By any objective measure he's behind. 

I think you are the one who doesn't know qbs or the game of football.  Why are you switching camps so often? The only person you are fooling is yourself. Daboll isn't doing Allen any favors by making him throw short and predictable throws. I saw this at Wyoming in Allens last season, and it is a way to win games. It is not a way to develop a qb. So unknowing fans like yourself have to decide if you want wins, or develop a qb at fairly decent clip.

All the other writers / media out there are talking about how the rookie qbs have no receivers, offensive line, or overall general help when reading about their problems. And before Darnold finally started playing better, a lot of the media were claiming him to be the worst out of the four. Why people on this board started forgetting about Allen having no line and no tools work with is beyond me. Nothing has changed, especially the agenda. Most of the Allen haters on here are not good Bills fans . They are mostly happy to just be on here complaining. And the far fetched theories they come up with are sad to say the least. Allen and the rest are rookies. And very few rookis get it right the first year. And watching the media and fans praise them one week like the next coming , and the following week proclaim they should never have even got drafted is comical. You all need to settle down and look at the big picture. There will be ups and downs. They have all shown it up to this point. The sample size and coaching / play calling has all been different. Same goes by the talent they are surrounded by . So no possible way you can get a fair or clear understanding from it. Or even decent feedback from it. I like to read what present and past players and staff from the Bills have to say about Allen.  They usually have insider knowledge, unlike posters like yourself and the media go by.

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, BB@Shooter said:

I think you are the one who doesn't know qbs or the game of football.  Why are you switching camps so often? The only person you are fooling is yourself. Daboll isn't doing Allen any favors by making him throw short and predictable throws. I saw this at Wyoming in Allens last season, and it is a way to win games. It is not a way to develop a qb. So unknowing fans like yourself have to decide if you want wins, or develop a qb at fairly decent clip.

All the other writers / media out there are talking about how the rookie qbs have no receivers, offensive line, or overall general help when reading about their problems. And before Darnold finally started playing better, a lot of the media were claiming him to be the worst out of the four. Why people on this board started forgetting about Allen having no line and no tools work with is beyond me. Nothing has changed, especially the agenda. Most of the Allen haters on here are not good Bills fans . They are mostly happy to just be on here complaining. And the far fetched theories they come up with are sad to say the least. Allen and the rest are rookies. And very few rookis get it right the first year. And watching the media and fans praise them one week like the next coming , and the following week proclaim they should never have even got drafted is comical. You all need to settle down and look at the big picture. There will be ups and downs. They have all shown it up to this point. The sample size and coaching / play calling has all been different. Same goes by the talent they are surrounded by . So no possible way you can get a fair or clear understanding from it. Or even decent feedback from it. I like to read what present and past players and staff from the Bills have to say about Allen.  They usually have insider knowledge, unlike posters like yourself and the media go by.

 

Unknowing? What the heck are you even talking about with this rambling? All I need to do is watch him and the others play.  He started the season behind and he still is.  I wish he hadn't gotten injured so because he needs game experience.  Your long post isn't telling me anything I don't already know with regard to the supporting cast.   I hope he gets back soon. 

[BB@Shooter]

On 10/16/2018 at 6:48 AM, PearlHowardman said:

 

Carried over from his college playing days.  In another word:  Trend!  And trends seldom change.  

Especially the trend of you knocking Allen.

10 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Unknowing? What the heck are you even talking about with this rambling? All I need to do is watch him and the others play.  He started the season behind and he still is.  I wish he hadn't gotten injured so because he needs game experience.  Your long post isn't telling me anything I don't already know with regard to the supporting cast.   I hope he gets back soon. 

Keep jumping on and off the bandwagon. Watch it or you might wear out your keyboard. Typical fan who follows the media and can't think for themselves.