Josh Allen looks on par with this year’s other rookie QBs

[Straight Hucklebuck]

1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:

They could have Carr next year if they want.  He was the golden boy, and now looks like he's on the way out of Oakland.

 

Give Allen time. 

I also clearly stated that I want Allen to play more.

 

My gut tells me that the initial returns (5 games worth) are he is the same guy we saw in Wyoming. 

 

But I also don't want Bills fans to hand out extra credit for run of the mill plays.

 

This offense flat lined after the Vikings game. How could there be any other conclusion? The team was shutout in Green Bay, had 13 against Tennessee and Allen had the Bills at 3 points against the Texans before he left. 

 

Hopefully Allen gets back out there and keeps playing. And for sure he'll get (and should get) the start in 2019 with improved personnel around him. 

 

 

I agree with the OP that Allen needs to learn NFL open and improve pre-snap ability to read a defense. Of course the latter will take time. No final judgement on Allen there. 

 

 

 

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

10 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said:

He threw two great 40 yard passes in a little more than a half on Sunday. Was not his fault a FB lined up as a WR on the opposite side of the field which had nothing to do with the play was not lined up correctly.

Even if we go ahead and give him an extra 100 yards on the season his YPA jumps to 6.7 which is still a .25 of a point below Mayfield and Rosen. And both those QBs would still be outperforming Allen in TD%, Int% and sack %. The sack % isn't even close.

[oldmanfan]

6 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I also clearly stated that I want Allen to play more.

 

My gut tells me that the initial returns (5 games worth) are he is the same guy we saw in Wyoming. 

 

But I also don't want Bills fans to hand out extra credit for run of the mill plays.

 

This offense flat lined after the Vikings game. How could there be any other conclusion? The team was shutout in Green Bay, had 13 against Tennessee and Allen had the Bills at 3 points against the Texans before he left. 

 

Hopefully Allen gets back out there and keeps playing. And for sure he'll get (and should get) the start in 2019 with improved personnel around him. 

 

 

I agree with the OP that Allen needs to learn NFL open and improve pre-snap ability to read a defense. Of course the latter will take time. No final judgement on Allen there. 

 

 

 

 

I looked at each passing play from Sunday's first half, and what I saw was that he was more accurate especially on short throws than he was earlier in the year.  And he was getting the ball out quick and was more decisive, although that may have been related to play calls.  I'm seeing him make moves in the right direction.

[Elite Poster]

My guy is struggling to clear the 100 yard bar, can't identify simple blitz pick ups, bails on clean pockets, is gun shy, is the second worse QB throwing on the run, averages more yards rushing than passing (hello Tyrod Jr), and has the most 25+ yard throw attempts with the lowest 25+ yard completion %.

 

What in the world are you watching? He had one good game and honestly has looked worse in the last 3 compared to the Chargers and Ravens. He has 1 good throw per half. He needs to have a few good throws per drive. 

Edited October 16, 2018 by Elite Poster

[Kelly the Dog]

Just now, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Even if we go ahead and give him an extra 100 yards on the season his YPA jumps to 6.7 which is still a .25 of a point below Mayfield and Rosen. And both those QBs would still be outperforming Allen in TD%, Int% and sack %. The sack % isn't even close.

Raw stats like that are less than worthless. If you put Allen on the Browns with Jackson and Haley and Landry and that line he would be doing far better, and if you put Mayfield with McD and Daboll and Culley and Benjamin and Zay he would be doing much worse. And I have watched every play of his and he is no better than Allen. 

[Troll Toll]

I guess I still don’t understand how people can crown Deshaun Watson a stud, demolish Josh Allen, watch a game where they play each other and not grasp the irony of Josh Allen outplaying him. Watson has arguably the best receiver in the NFL at his disposal. There seems to be a lot of irrational opinions on how Josh is developing. Brady won a Super Bowl MVP throwing for 135 yards.

[Elite Poster]

I'm convinced you don't watch the games and just want to be positive. Sans the one half against the Vikings, he has been outright, clearly the worst passer of the first round QBs besides Lamar who isn't playing. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Just now, Kelly the Dog said:

Raw stats like that are less than worthless. If you put Allen on the Browns with Jackson and Haley and Landry and that line he would be doing far better, and if you put Mayfield with McD and Daboll and Culley and Benjamin and Zay he would be doing much worse. And I have watched every play of his and he is no better than Allen. 

That's all hypothetical. The only thing that is true that we have to go off of are the raw stats. I'm done with making excuses for our bad QBs. Just put up good numbers, heck I'll even take slightly below average for a rookie season.

[Elite Poster]

2 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said:

Raw stats like that are less than worthless. If you put Allen on the Browns with Jackson and Haley and Landry and that line he would be doing far better, and if you put Mayfield with McD and Daboll and Culley and Benjamin and Zay he would be doing much worse. And I have watched every play of his and he is no better than Allen. 

 

So he would step up into the pocket, read defenses better, not takeoff running from clean pockets, and have magically better accuracy if the color of his jersey was different?

[oldmanfan]

I haven't watched the other guys much.  I did watch Rosen for about a half two weekends ago, because he was the guy I was hoping they'd take.  I saw him overthrow several guys, got happy feet a little in the pocket.  Wasn't as on target as I thought he'd be.  Did seem to be ahead o f Allen in terms of reads and getting the ball out on time.

 

Bottom line:  pluses and minuses like all young QBs.

[Kelly the Dog]

1 minute ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

That's all hypothetical. The only thing that is true that we have to go off of are the raw stats. I'm done with making excuses for our bad QBs. Just put up good numbers, heck I'll even take slightly below average for a rookie season.

Because coaching and teammates have nothing to do with performance.

[Elite Poster]

1 minute ago, Troll Toll said:

I guess I still don’t understand how people can crown Deshaun Watson a stud, demolish Josh Allen, watch a game where they play each other and not grasp the irony of Josh Allen outplaying him. Watson has arguably the best receiver in the NFL at his disposal. There seems to be a lot of irrational opinions on how Josh is developing. Brady won a Super Bowl MVP throwing for 135 yards.

 

Watson gives you the same production in 6 games with Allen in 2 games.

 

Look at the niners, they have nobody on that offense but CJ freaking Beathard can at least slide up in a clean pocket, identify the coverage pre snap, and deliver a couple good balls per drive. I'm not asking for much especially from a rookie but he looks DIII/Junior Varsity.

1 minute ago, Kelly the Dog said:

Because coaching and teammates have nothing to do with performance.

 

So when he can't hit an open WR you blame someone else?? Why didn't these excuses work for Tyrod? Same *****, different day. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Just now, Kelly the Dog said:

Because coaching and teammates have nothing to do with performance.

So coaching and teammates has been the problem since Kelly retired? Or is it more likely we just haven't had a good QB in that time span? Again, I'm not making excuses. A good QB will rise to the top regardless of circumstances. Sure coaching and personnel can help. But you either have it or you don't as well. Let's just find a guy that has it. Enough of the excuses.

[Kelly the Dog]

2 minutes ago, Elite Poster said:

 

So he would step up into the pocket, read defenses better, not takeoff running from clean pockets, and have magically better accuracy if the color of his jersey was different?

Newsflash. Better coaching and better surrounding players = better performance.

                     Worse coaching and worse surrounding players = worse surrounding performance.

At least that has been the trend since sports were invented 4000 years ago.

[Elite Poster]

Just now, Kelly the Dog said:

Newsflash. Better coaching and better surrounding players = better performance.

                     Worse coaching and worse surrounding players = worse surrounding performance.

At least that has been the trend since sports were invented 4000 years ago.

 

Newsflash, just watch the All-22. He HAS guys open, he HAS clean pockets, and he's making awful mistakes. Is his supporting cast great? Hell no. Are there opportunities to make plays? Hell yes! You just keep reiterating yourself instead of actually responding to these points and making this a meaningful conversation. You are stuck in your own ignorance. Don't bother responding. 

[IronyAbounds]

4 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

It would be sooo nice to get out of QB purgatory some day... 

 

I wish just getting the right QB would do that, but without a decent OL and decent receivers it's always hard to tell. In any event, the FO completely botched the QB situation this year so any cannons that are armed and ready to fire should be aimed at the FO and McDermott.

[Kelly the Dog]

1 minute ago, Elite Poster said:

 

Newsflash, just watch the All-22. He HAS guys open, he HAS clean pockets, and he's making awful mistakes. Is his supporting cast great? Hell no. Are there opportunities to make plays? Hell yes! You just keep reiterating yourself instead of actually responding to these points and making this a meaningful conversation. You are stuck in your own ignorance. Don't bother responding. 

I watch it. It's awesome. And a curse for people who don't know what they are watching, or claim guys are wide open a second after the QB has already looked at them when they weren't open and on to his second or third progression. 

[thebandit27]

Just now, Kelly the Dog said:

I watch it. It's awesome. And a curse for people who don't know what they are watching, or claim guys are wide open a second after the QB has already looked at them when they weren't open and on to his second or third progression. 

 

Yeah, but what do you know?

 

[Kelly the Dog]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Yeah, but what do you know?

 

Less than you, more than most others.

[HappyDays]

1 minute ago, Kelly the Dog said:

I watch it. It's awesome. And a curse for people who don't know what they are watching, or claim guys are wide open a second after the QB has already looked at them when they weren't open and on to his second or third progression. 

 

I enjoy the all-22s for what they are, which is a good view of how plays are designed and how they develop. But they are being wildly misused by internet scouts. I saw someone on Twitter last week breaking down an all-22 for Aaron Rodgers against the Redskins and pointing out all these open receivers he should have thrown the ball to. Somehow I trust Aaron Rodgers's progressions and knowledge of the play over some guy with an overhead view of the entire field.

[Elite Poster]

2 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said:

I watch it. It's awesome. And a curse for people who don't know what they are watching, or claim guys are wide open a second after the QB has already looked at them when they weren't open and on to his second or third progression. 

 

Is it me that doesn't know what they are seeing or the guy who thinks we are on to something with a player who cannot cross the CJ Beathard bar?

[Kelly the Dog]

Just now, HappyDays said:

 

I enjoy the all-22s for what they are, which is a good view of how plays are designed and how they develop. But they are being wildly misused by internet scouts. I saw someone on Twitter last week breaking down an all-22 for Aaron Rodgers against the Redskins and pointing out all these open receivers he should have thrown the ball to. Somehow I trust Aaron Rodgers's progressions and knowledge of the play over some guy with an overhead view of the entire field.

Yep. It's as bad for football discussion as it is good, but I'm quite glad they have it.

2 minutes ago, Elite Poster said:

 

Is it me that doesn't know what they are seeing or the guy who thinks we are on to something with a player who cannot cross the CJ Beathard bar?

It's not widely known, but Shanahan has never actually spoken to Beathard since he has been there. CJ has did this two game hot streak all on his own.

[HappyDays]

2 minutes ago, Elite Poster said:

 

Is it me that doesn't know what they are seeing or the guy who thinks we are on to something with a player who cannot cross the CJ Beathard bar?

 

CJ Beathard played in 7 games as a rookie, he started 5. He had a 54.9% completion rate, 4 TDs to 6 INTs, a YPA of 6.4, and a passer rating of 69.2. He was sacked 19 times.

 

Is that the bar you're talking about?

[Elite Poster]

2 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said:

Yep. It's as bad for football discussion as it is good, but I'm quite glad they have it.

It's not widely known, but Shanahan has never actually spoken to Beathard since he has been there. CJ has did this two game hot streak all on his own.

 

Ahhh right, so his weak surrounding cast is magically erased by Shanny and not his pocket presence and average level NFL accuracy. Daboll and McDermott must be bumbling idiots. 

[Kelly the Dog]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

CJ Beathard played in 7 games as a rookie, he started 5. He had a 54.9% completion rate, 4 TDs to 6 INTs, a YPA of 6.4, and a passer rating of 69.2. He was sacked 19 times.

 

Is that the bar you're talking about?

I think that's what DElitePoster means, yes.

[Elite Poster]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

CJ Beathard played in 7 games as a rookie, he started 5. He had a 54.9% completion rate, 4 TDs to 6 INTs, a YPA of 6.4, and a passer rating of 69.2. He was sacked 19 times.

 

Is that the bar you're talking about?

 

Um, yes. You might want to look up Joshy boy's stats. The greatest part of this post, is that Josh is actually worse in every single category mentioned...

Edited October 16, 2018 by Elite Poster

[Kelly the Dog]

1 minute ago, Elite Poster said:

 

Ahhh right, so his weak surrounding cast is magically erased by Shanny and not his pocket presence and average level NFL accuracy. Daboll and McDermott must be bumbling idiots. 

They started Nate Freakin' Peterman, put him in again to similar results, and are now threatening to pull that caper again.

 

And did you watch Beathard's first five games on All-22?

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, Elite Poster said:

 

Ahhh right, so his weak surrounding cast is magically erased by Shanny and not his pocket presence and average level NFL accuracy. Daboll and McDermott must be bumbling idiots. 

 

You should probably quit with this argument now...each post is making it look more foolish.

 

For example, CJ Beatherd's "average level NFL accuracy" helped him complete a whopping 56.5% of his passes as a senior--nearly identical to Josh Allen's senior season.  And as @HappyDays just pointed out, his rookie performance was nearly identical to Allen as well.

[Elite Poster]

Just now, Kelly the Dog said:

They started Nate Freakin' Peterman, put him in again to similar results, and are now threatening to pull that caper again.

 

And did you watch Beathard's first five games on All-22?

 

At least we agree on something.

[HappyDays]

2 minutes ago, Elite Poster said:

 

Um, yes. You might want to look up Joshy Boys stats. 

 

If you include his rushing they are almost exactly the same as rookies. How about you give him a year to see how his development goes instead of writing hinlm off?

[Elite Poster]

3 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

You should probably quit with this argument now...each post is making it look more foolish.

 

For example, CJ Beatherd's "average level NFL accuracy" helped him complete a whopping 56.5% of his passes as a senior--nearly identical to Josh Allen's senior season.  And as @HappyDays just pointed out, his rookie performance was nearly identical to Allen as well.

 

I see, so a prospect drafted to be an NFL backup for it's entire career is comparable to our 7th overall and I'm an idiot for thinking that might be an issue. I never said their careers have been defined this early, but the topic of this thread is Josh is progressing well and is comparable to his peers. That isn't true. 

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

If you include his rushing they are almost exactly the same as rookies. How about you give him a year to see how his development goes instead of writing hinlm off?

 

This is where my initial point is lost. I'm not writing anyone off. The topic of this thread was he is progressing well and is comparable to the others in this class. I simply stated he's more comparable to slightly worse than Beathard. Which it seems you guys are agreeing to now????

Edited October 16, 2018 by Elite Poster

[thebandit27]

Just now, Elite Poster said:

 

I see, so a prospect drafted to be an NFL backup for it's entire career is comparable to our 7th overall and I'm an idiot for thinking that might be an issue. I never said their careers have been defined this early, but the topic of this thread is Josh is progressing well and is comparable to his peers. That isn't true. 

 

Well, I didn't call you an idiot, but if that's how you feel...

 

What I am saying, and have repeatedly said, is that it's extremely common for rookies to struggle in certain areas, and that what Allen is showing is no different than what many rookies before him that were asked to play before they were ready showed.  I've used examples like Goff, Trubisky, and yes, Beatherd fits the bill as well.

 

All 4 of them have eerily similar stats through 6 NFL games.  So I'll ask you: are you at all concerned about Mitchell Trubisky or Jared Goff since Beatherd's numbers are very similar to their rookie numbers?  Conversely, is Beatherd destined to become Jared Goff because their rookie performances are nearly identical?

 

Perhaps, when it's stated this way, the point will make more sense.

[zow2]

I'm done with comparing/hoping our guy is another Jared Goff.   Josh Allen is completely different and a big project.  Again, how many of these project QBs have ever made it big?

 

A quick look at Goff's stats show his final year at Cal he had a 64.5% completion% and 43 TD passes.    That was against Pac-12 talent not Mountain West or whatever,,

 

So clearly Goff was a proven high % passer in college and probably just needed the NFL game to slow down for him, plus McVay's guidance,

 

A

[thebandit27]

5 minutes ago, zow2 said:

I'm done with comparing/hoping our guy is another Jared Goff.   Josh Allen is completely different and a big project.  Again, how many of these project QBs have ever made it big?

 

A quick look at Goff's stats show his final year at Cal he had a 64.5% completion% and 43 TD passes.    That was against Pac-12 talent not Mountain West or whatever,,

 

So clearly Goff was a proven high % passer in college and probably just needed the NFL game to slow down for him, plus McVay's guidance,

 

A

 

Nobody said Allen is, was, or will be Goff, and I'm amazed that somehow people are still thinking that that's the point.

 

As for what Goff needed, he probably needed the game to slow down and McVay's guidance, but the fact that they added Robert Woods, Sammy Watkins, Cooper Kupp, Josh Reynolds, and Tyler Higbee in a single offseason might have made a difference as well.  Then, of course, there's the fact that he actually had a full NFL offseason under his belt.

[Teddy KGB]

48 minutes ago, Elite Poster said:

 

Newsflash, just watch the All-22. He HAS guys open, he HAS clean pockets, and he's making awful mistakes. Is his supporting cast great? Hell no. Are there opportunities to make plays? Hell yes! You just keep reiterating yourself instead of actually responding to these points and making this a meaningful conversation. You are stuck in your own ignorance. Don't bother responding. 

 

Your crusade has you seeing red.  

 

Maybe save the drama for Allen’s sophomore season? 

[Reed83HOF]

I haven't checked any of this out, but its hilarious...

 

http://www.footballperspective.com/week-6-passing-stats-the-bills-are-above-average-at-passing-for-1941/

 

They are averaging 2.0 ANY/A and have reached the cellar by being bad at every facet of the passing game.  The Bills rank last in the league in completion percentage, passing yards, passing touchdowns, passing touchdown rate, and yards per attempt. The Bills also have the worst sack rate *and* the worst interception rate in the NFL.

 

In 1941, the league average completion percentage was 44.3%; the 2018 Bills are completing passes at a 50.6% clip.

In 1941, the average NFL team gained 122 passing yards per game; the 2018 Bills are gaining 123 passing yards per game.

In 1941, NFL teams threw an interception on 10% of passes; the 2018 Bills have thrown an interception on 7.3% of passes.

 

But if you pick any year more recent than 1941, you might think Buffalo was a below-average passing team.  The league average completion percentage has been over 50.6% in every season since 1961. When it comes to interceptions, 1975 and 1971 are the only post-merger seasons where the league average more than 1.5 interceptions per game.  And in passing yards per game?  It’s been higher than Buffalo’s current average in every season beginning in 1942.

 

If you want to use yards per attempt, you have to go back to 1935 to find a season where Buffalo’s current 5.39 Y/A average would be above average.   The last time the league average ANY/A was below 2.0 was in 1938, and the NFL has never had a NY/A average as poor as the 2018 Bills.

[Success]

I can’t believe the level of passion some have AGAINST Allen at this point.

 

What did people expect?  He wasn’t even supposed to play this year.  He looks exactly as I figured he would - and he has actually made a few nice plays.

 

it hasn’t even been 5 games.  This board loved him after Minnesota. Just a few games since, and half of the fan base already seems done with him.

[BullBuchanan]

7 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

How many people kept spouting off a 60% completion rate as if it was the be all and end all of how to tell if a guy can be successful?

 

What evidence do you have exactly that this isn't true? I made this argument over and over, and it's holding true, just like it does 99% of the time. Allen is faltering.

[Teddy KGB]

2 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

 

What evidence do you have exactly that this isn't true? I made this argument over and over, and it's holding true, just like it does 99% of the time. Allen is faltering.

 

Goff faltered too.     Chill on the self kudos

[nbbillsfan]

Anyone who is not dissapointed in Allen thus far just doesn't get it. Guy has simply not played the position well, at all. He has run the ball well for a QB, but you know it is a bad sign when the best thrown ball of the last few games came from Nate fricken Peterman. They days of QB's needing a year to be productive are over, there plentiful examples of guys coming in and showing a ton of potential, as a passer, early on. There are not many examples, however, of guys struggling to complete passes at the rate Josh has, who were able to overcome that.

 

I like Josh, he has ton's of talent and seems to have a great work ethic and drive. He is miles behind mentally and accuracy wise. We will see if hard work and determination can drastically improve those areas; however, history has not been kind to QB's with these issues. The best thing I can say about the kid, is that if anyone can beat the odds, I think it could be him.