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Chris Trapasso: A Plan for the Bills to Get the Most Out of Josh Allen


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After watching all his throws in 8 of his games, it's become pretty damn apparent that the knock on him for not being an accurate passer is waaaaay overblown.  I don't care what that completion percentage showed, I know what I saw and what I saw was someone who throws the 10+ yard passes pretty damn accurate.  And the criticism that he doesn't throw with much touch is also bogus.   He can put some touch on some throws, as evidenced in the Senior Bowl.  

 

What he needs help with are his swing and short passes.  He tends to throw high.   

 

And he needs help with his decision making, he sometimes throws those crazy across the field throws on the run.   Having said that, he played for freaking Wyoming.  That team was only winning 2-4 games a year before he joined and all of a sudden they won a whole lot more with him as QB.  Meaning he was the entire offense and for that team he took the team upon his shoulders and took lots of risks.   I don't believe he will do that nearly as much in the pros.  Don't get me wrong, he should be slinging it down the field when he's extending plays because those broken plays can net some homeruns and he is definitely a homerun passer. But he'll temper some of the silly stuff that he did in college because he will learn to play within the system.

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8 minutes ago, NewEraBills said:

I actually do.  I am not forecasting anything.  All I said was his climb doesn't disappear just because he's the Bills QB and because fans want it to disappear.  I'm not saying anything negative about him.   These are facts. 

 

 

Oh ok, I thought you believing the same unproven rhetoric.   My apologies.  

 

The climb doesn't disappear for any college player drafted - you're right.  I just wanted to be sure to say his isn't any higher of a climb.  

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We Have A. J. McCarron for 2 years, Nathan  Peterman for 3 more years and Josh Allen for five years, so why hurry getting Allen in there.

  Let’s find out what we have in McCarron and Peterman while Allen gets situated into being a pro.  Worst case, if we sit Allen this year is that we have the next four years for him to show his stuff. 

Best case scenario is that one of the others steps up and becomes a top flight quarterback. 

This gives us options for the future.  Let’s narrow things this year by giving reps to McCarron and Peterman and whoever wins faces off against Allen next year.

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2 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

Here's a plan for the Bills to get the most out of Josh Allen, and it involves Cam Newton

When creating a scheme for Allen, the Bills should look to a quarterback head coach Sean McDermott knows well
 
 
By drafting Josh Allen, the Bills took the biggest risk of all the teams that selected a quarterback in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft.
 
Despite being the most physically-imposing quarterback to enter the NFL in some time, the Wyoming product joins the league with three major flaws to his game. That combination led to Allen being one of the most polarizing signal-caller prospects of the last decade, but he was still a top-10 pick.
 
The moment his name was announced by Roger Goodell, I was confused as to why the Bills decided to take a risk on such a dicey project at quarterback in this draft of all drafts, and I'm skeptical it will work out for him in Buffalo.
 
My concerns with Allen are as follows:
 
  • Lack of consistent accuracy
  • Habitually leaving the pocket at the first sign of pressure
  • Tendency to "overextend" plays while improvising, frequently throwing off-balance into precarious situations

We've seen what kind of QB he is while running for his life and without very much talent around him.  What kind of QB is he with some time and a few playmakers like Mccoy and Benjamin...we will see soon enough.

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I like that Josh Allen has size. That means he might come with durability. I like that people say he can be athletic. Yes I seen the criticism on some of the plays that they showed. He could of made some better choices on some of the plays. So he has some learning to do. It might not be a hot start for Allen. 

 

Then I see on some of the plays that he actually can make good decisions and really can make perfect plays. So at the very least he is capable of doing the right things at least sometimes. 

 

It left me more motivated about the pick. You drafted the body of NFL QB that might be able to learn to make NFL plays. So they are betting on being able to to coach him up. He scored good on tests. Shows intelligence. I am in favor of this pick now. I'm a Josh Allen fan. He has potential to be franchise. 

 

I think Mayfield on the Browns is a bust no matter what statistics wise. So that leaves the Darnold vs Allen rivalry as each one fights for the top of the division next few years and the Patriots fall off the map because Tom Brady is very old. 

 

Oh and Rosen turns out to be to weak for the NFL. 

 

 

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27 minutes ago, Magox said:

After watching all his throws in 8 of his games, it's become pretty damn apparent that the knock on him for not being an accurate passer is waaaaay overblown.  I don't care what that completion percentage showed, I know what I saw and what I saw was someone who throws the 10+ yard passes pretty damn accurate.  And the criticism that he doesn't throw with much touch is also bogus.   He can put some touch on some throws, as evidenced in the Senior Bowl.  

 

What he needs help with are his swing and short passes.  He tends to throw high.   

 

And he needs help with his decision making, he sometimes throws those crazy across the field throws on the run.   Having said that, he played for freaking Wyoming.  That team was only winning 2-4 games a year before he joined and all of a sudden they won a whole lot more with him as QB.  Meaning he was the entire offense and for that team he took the team upon his shoulders and took lots of risks.   I don't believe he will do that nearly as much in the pros.  Don't get me wrong, he should be slinging it down the field when he's extending plays because those broken plays can net some homeruns and he is definitely a homerun passer. But he'll temper some of the silly stuff that he did in college because he will learn to play within the system.

 

Nice post, I agree with much of this.

 

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31 minutes ago, Magox said:

After watching all his throws in 8 of his games, it's become pretty damn apparent that the knock on him for not being an accurate passer is waaaaay overblown.  I don't care what that completion percentage showed, I know what I saw and what I saw was someone who throws the 10+ yard passes pretty damn accurate.  And the criticism that he doesn't throw with much touch is also bogus.   He can put some touch on some throws, as evidenced in the Senior Bowl.  

 

What he needs help with are his swing and short passes.  He tends to throw high.   

 

And he needs help with his decision making, he sometimes throws those crazy across the field throws on the run.   Having said that, he played for freaking Wyoming.  That team was only winning 2-4 games a year before he joined and all of a sudden they won a whole lot more with him as QB.  Meaning he was the entire offense and for that team he took the team upon his shoulders and took lots of risks.   I don't believe he will do that nearly as much in the pros.  Don't get me wrong, he should be slinging it down the field when he's extending plays because those broken plays can net some homeruns and he is definitely a homerun passer. But he'll temper some of the silly stuff that he did in college because he will learn to play within the system.

 

Thank you and I agree.  I wish more people would take the time to see there's an argument against this accuracy mantra being placed on Allen.

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Isn't the real question here whether or not the Bills should have traded 3 #1 picks (12, 22 and 2019 #1) for Darnold vs trading 12, and two 2nd's from this years draft for Josh Allen and Edmunds? Is Darnold really worth that? Is Darnold significantly less risky than Allen? Can any of us honestly say that we know that at this point in time?

 

I have to assume for now at least, that Beane has "nailed it". I think he has earned that much by all the moves he has made since coming here. I remember just a short time ago people on this site were praising Beane for getting pick #65 for Tyrod from Cleveland and now some people here think they are a better judge of talent than Beane? Really??

 

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It makes sense to focus on Allen's strengths instead of his weaknesses.  He's easily the most talented QB on the Bills roster, but if the Bills coaching staff is going to keep him on the bench while trying to turn him into a rhythm passer, Allen will turn into a bust.

 

Allen is more Roethlisberger than he is Brady.  Keeping him on the bench while trying to turn him into a dink and dunk passer is a waste of everybody's time. 

 

His strengths are throwing to the sidelines, using play action, and extending plays to throw downfield.  Build the offensive game plan around that and watch opposing defense move the eighth man out of the box, letting Shady run wild. 

 

Oh, and start him week 1.  Let him learn on the field. He has enough skills and nerve to overcome his mistakes.

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1 minute ago, DefenseWins said:

Isn't the real question here whether or not the Bills should have traded 3 #1 picks (12, 22 and 2019 #1) for Darnold vs trading 12, and two 2nd's from this years draft for Josh Allen and Edmunds? Is Darnold really worth that? Is Darnold significantly less risky than Allen? Can any of us honestly say that we know that at this point in time?

 

I have to assume for now at least, that Beane has "nailed it". I think he has earned that much by all the moves he has made since coming here. I remember just a short time ago people on this site were praising Beane for getting pick #65 for Tyrod from Cleveland and now some people here think they are a better judge of talent than Beane? Really??

 

 

This kind of thinking means no GM should be questioned for the decisions they make solely because they are in charge of an NFL front office as if they will make no mistakes. We know this is simply not the case and in especially so when it comes to picking QBs.  It's a faulty argument. 

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I am very excited however, my heart won't allow me to believe McDermott believes any of this. My heart wont allow me to believe Daboll is capable of being this flexible as to change his whole scheme comfort zone. My main reason for such a low approval of the draft stems from my not understanding who is going to be on the other end of that moon shot. I really wanted to acquire at least 1 legit WR for Allen to develop with. Get him 1 more component to the O line. I just feel like you do all that work to move up for your "franchise" guy, you have to assemble a team around d him. FA and the draft havent really done that yet. I cant wait to see that ball travel over the 300 level (not really) of New Era to to a non glass Marquis Goodwin type player who just embarrasses his defender streaking for the score. I want people here to be ready for Allen to be TERRIBLE. For the Bills to potentially take step back while Allen figures it all out. I definitely wont be an I told you so guy (I wanted Rosen). I just want to be wrong about all this. I want to see the shift. Will Pegs Beane and McD trust HIS process?

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2 hours ago, horned dogs said:

I have very little respect for his ability to anaylze QBs after following him this spring prior to the draft. Hell for that matter all his ratings were weird. When I compared his position ratings to a consensus of the other experts he was always the outlier.

If you liked his QB rankings, you’d REALLY enjoy his WR stuff. I’m all for deviating from the norm a bit, but he’s wayyyy out there. 

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2 hours ago, White Linen said:

Stopped reading after this:

 

By drafting Josh Allen, the Bills took the biggest risk of all the teams that selected a quarterback in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft.

 

Well he was the worst one of all the QBs drafted in the first round by a considerable margin. I actually think he's pretty spot on with how the kid could have some success. The bills would be wise to invest heavily in elite WRs over the next couple years. a couple boasting extreme catch radius and body positioning and a game breaking threat to limit the amount of shots we have to take when they pan out. Larry Fitzgerald in his prime comes to mind. that guy put up 1700 yards with anyone under center.

5 minutes ago, stuvian said:

articles like these, while well written, presume that Allen will not work to improve his game. If the support system is put in place and he commits himself we may have a Pro Bowler. 

 

Historically, it hasn't proven possible over any sort of sample size to significantly improve a QB following college. There are a lot of articles/research about it.

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9 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Historically, it hasn't proven possible over any sort of sample size to significantly improve a QB following college. There are a lot of articles/research about it.

 

QBs improve in many areas post college all the time. It's gains in completion percentage that are hard to come by (but not impossible).

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1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said:

 

Well he was the worst one of all the QBs drafted in the first round by a considerable margin. I actually think he's pretty spot on with how the kid could have some success. The bills would be wise to invest heavily in elite WRs over the next couple years. a couple boasting extreme catch radius and body positioning and a game breaking threat to limit the amount of shots we have to take when they pan out. Larry Fitzgerald in his prime comes to mind. that guy put up 1700 yards with anyone under center.

 

Historically, it hasn't proven possible over any sort of sample size to significantly improve a QB following college. There are a lot of articles/research about it.

 

I started to respond with actual thought but it's just not worth it.  Ok, it's not possible for QB's to improve. 

1 hour ago, No Cease Fires said:

 

QBs improve in many areas post college all the time. It's gains in completion percentage that are hard to come by (but not impossible).

 

Actually the good ones improve in accuracy often.  While throwing more passes.  

 

Rodgers, Ryan, Wilson, Brady, Brees all have.  I just picked those in a row, so there wasn't one that didn't that I picked.  I'm sure there's more that have and maybe only a few that haven't .  It's actually common for the good ones to improve - so absolutely no reason Allen can't, especially since he's already not inaccurate.  

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2 hours ago, White Linen said:

 

I started to respond with actual thought but it's just not worth it.  Ok, it's not possible for QB's to improve. 

 

Actually the good ones improve in accuracy often.  While throwing more passes.  

 

Rodgers, Ryan, Wilson, Brady, Brees all have.  I just picked those in a row, so there wasn't one that didn't that I picked.  I'm sure there's more that have and maybe only a few that haven't .  It's actually common for the good ones to improve - so absolutely no reason Allen can't, especially since he's already not inaccurate.  

 

Yea, not really. The data shows that the best QBs in the league usually fall 2-3% within their college numbers. I've actually done the research back to the 83 draft and outside of Brees, Favre, Ryan and Moon it holds shockingly consistent. Kelly, Marino, Elway, Roethlisberger, Newton, both Mannings, Rivers, Prescott, all the guys listed below and a ton more follow this exact same phenomenon. Also worth mentioning that only Moon and Favre had numbers below acceptable in college and brought them up to pro-standard. brees and Ryan were already good to go.

 

Can it happen? Sure. Does it occur with any statistical significance? No, not really. Successful teams pick prospects based on percentages and risk/reward. Hoping for a QB to jump from 55% to 60% is like buying a lottery ticket and expecting to win.
 

Tom Brady: College 61.9% Pro 63.9%

Aaron Rodgers: College 63.8% Pro 65.1 %

Russel Wilson: College: 57.8%(NC) 72% (WI) 60.1%(Overall) Pro 64%

Drew Brees: College 61.1% Pro 66.9%

Matt Ryan: College 59.9% Pro 64.9%

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5 hours ago, NewEraBills said:

 

Well, his nightmare continues here unfortunately, at least for now.

I don't think that is necessarily true, Kelvins frame alone gives him separation, and when the ball is in the air he can battle for it.

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6 hours ago, Max Fischer said:

 

I like and respect Trapasso but he seems to get too locked into a narrative without much consideration of circumstance. 

 

There is reason to believe Allen will improve with coaching and a decent supporting cast that would certainly help with all three of these “flaws.” 

 

On most snaps Josh is running for his life, and without the toughness to shake off tackles and athleticism to avoid the rush he would’ve been sacked much more often.  Put Rosen or Rudolph behind that line and they might not be considered top prospects. While Mayfield was a scrambler it seemed to be more style than necessity and he often seemed to have at least one receiver open.  Only Jackson seemed to encounter consistent pressure as Allen. 

 

Yes, you can see Allen taking the extra chance which was often the cause of an interception or bad throw but so often it seemed he was trying to make something happen. To me, his team lived and died on his ability to will them to a win. That’s a ton of pressure on one player. Again, see Jackson compared to other QBs. 

3

This is it exactly. All the top QBs had better talent around them in 2017 over Allen.

 

What worries me is that Cam Newton had better talent around him in his first season.  If you look at the quality of players around Newton in his first season he had a bunch of first and second rounders on that offensive line that was veteran players like all pro center Ryan Kalil. Greg Olsen at TE, Steve Smith at WR.

 

That 2011 Panther team was 11th in rushing attempts yet were #3 in yards, #1 in TDs and #1 in YPA. Granted Newton had 706 yards rushing and 14 rushing TD's. He also had 4051 passing yards. 

 

Now Allen will have McCoy at RB, Benjamin at WR, Charles Clay at TE. But his offensive line will be hot garbage with no Incognito, Woods or Glenn. That all-pro at left guard made both the center and left tackle that looked so much better than they actually were. 

 

The Buffalo Bills need to drastically upgrade the talent on that offensive line or no QB  will play well in 2018.

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5 hours ago, LikeIGiveADarn said:

 

is there any other player at Wyoming that is forecasted to make the NFL? I legitimately do not know...

I agree he didn't have much help but what team he played other then Iowa had multiple NFL prospects.  Allen didn't play with much but also didnt play against much competition. 

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8 hours ago, No Cease Fires said:

 

Yep. In this very article:

 

In 2017, a whopping 67 percent of Allen's passing yards came through the air, not after the catch, per Sports Info Solutions.

Here's how that stacks up with the other quarterbacks picked in the first round of the 2018 draft:

 

I think Allen is going to (hopefully) be an interesting case study as far as the NFL draft goes.

 

In the "scouting vs analytics" discussion, Allen becoming a Franchise QB would be the ultimate argument for scouting.

 

It's really that simple.

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8 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

I think that's a pretty fair statement given the boom or bust nature of Allen as a prospect in combination with a trade up that cost them two 2nd round picks. 

 

Again... it's a risk if you are making the argument from the perspective of analytics.

 

From the perspective of analytics, Allen was a terrible pick, no matter how you slice it.

 

Analytics absolutely loves Baker Mayfield, which is part of why he went #1.

 

And I 100% wanted to draft Mayfield over any other QB.

 

But with Allen you have to dive deep into personal background, film study, whiteboard breakdowns, one-on-one's and so on.

 

Scouting is harder, more time consuming and very subjective.

 

So, yeah, this is boom or bust. But I think if Beane is a very smart, observant, intuitive scout (GM), then the boom will be more like BOOM!!!!

 

 

 

As for the 2nd round picks... who cares??? Honestly, Allen is literally the only player who makes this draft a success or a bust. If he turns into a Franchise QB, those two 2nd rounders will be quickly forgotten.

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By design, Allen threw hardly any screens or bubbles - not because he can't, but because his coaches asked him to throw intermediate and deep routes. That accounts in large part for the lower percentage completion. Mayfield, in contrast, was all about the short pass - much easier to get that gaudy 70% completion rate.

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11 hours ago, No Cease Fires said:

 

Yep. In this very article:

 

In 2017, a whopping 67 percent of Allen's passing yards came through the air, not after the catch, per Sports Info Solutions.

Here's how that stacks up with the other quarterbacks picked in the first round of the 2018 draft:

 

BOOM goes the dynamite!  Amazing how nobody talked about this leading up to the draft.  At least not that I saw.  Put Allen in the Oklahoma, USC, UCLA, or Louisville offenses and his completion percentage likely looks much different.

 

After watching some tape on Allen since he was drafted (mea culpa -- I watched nary a bit on any QB before the draft) I have come around to the conclusion that he is not, per se, "inaccurate."  He just needs coaching on the nuances of the position, and to learn when and when not to take risks.  The needle continues to tick up on this kid for me, and I've admitted numerous times he was probably my 4th choice pre-draft.

 

Bold prediction:  Allen gives McCarron a run for his money in training camp and creates an interesting decision for McD to start the season.

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12 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

Here's a plan for the Bills to get the most out of Josh Allen, and it involves Cam Newton

When creating a scheme for Allen, the Bills should look to a quarterback head coach Sean McDermott knows well
 
 
By drafting Josh Allen, the Bills took the biggest risk of all the teams that selected a quarterback in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft.
 
Despite being the most physically-imposing quarterback to enter the NFL in some time, the Wyoming product joins the league with three major flaws to his game. That combination led to Allen being one of the most polarizing signal-caller prospects of the last decade, but he was still a top-10 pick.
 
The moment his name was announced by Roger Goodell, I was confused as to why the Bills decided to take a risk on such a dicey project at quarterback in this draft of all drafts, and I'm skeptical it will work out for him in Buffalo.
 
My concerns with Allen are as follows:
 
  • Lack of consistent accuracy
  • Habitually leaving the pocket at the first sign of pressure
  • Tendency to "overextend" plays while improvising, frequently throwing off-balance into precarious situations

I just don't believe in Josh Allen... I feel like we took the wrong QB... & it concerns me that the front office was willing to give up more picks for this kid. For the front office sake... I hope they are right. But I don't believe in Josh Allen until he actually proves it...

 

"I will not fall for the banana in the tailpipe" - Eddie Murphy

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11 hours ago, LikeIGiveADarn said:

 

That's what stood out to me. It screams that Allen's receivers WERE NOT GOOD AT ALL. That number screams of "his receivers weren't athletic enough to separate, weren't strong enough to overpower DBs after the catch, but Allen still got the ball in their hands."


That's one assumption. The other might be that Allen stared down his receivers, allowing DBs to close on them. Yet another might be that Allen wasn't throwing his WRs open.

One thing we can put to rest is that his completion percentage fell because of dropped passes. I've read this over and over again about "Just look at the X Game. In the first half he had X drops". Bullsh!t. 

Look, I don't care WHY his completion was too low. In the end, his completion percentage was low and has been all his life because of the choices he made. He likes to throw, across his body, 50-60 yards downfield as he is falling back. His normal, first reaction when facing pressure is often to scramble. He puts himself into situations where he can fail and he does. 

Unlike many, I actually think that the problem with Allen isn't his accuracy. I think it's his inherent decision making - which on some level can certainly be game planned out. But not all of it. He has truly a lifetime of making incredibly bad decisions and if you think you can change a "fight-or-flight" mentality you are frankly NUTS. 

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40 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

Drool worthy throw!

 

 

 

Very few QB's on this planet can throw the ball 50 yards in the air with that low trajectory.   It really gives him such an advantage if he can learn to truly harness it.

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43 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

Drool worthy throw!

 

Josh Allen's senior bowl was really solid.  The game was solid as well.  He made some throws down the field just like this one that should make Bills fans jump for joy.  We as a fan base have been begging for a guy to throw the ball down the field, this is the guy to do that.  I still drool over his touchdown throws in the senior bowl game.

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7 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

This is it exactly. All the top QBs had better talent around them in 2017 over Allen.

 

What worries me is that Cam Newton had better talent around him in his first season.  If you look at the quality of players around Newton in his first season he had a bunch of first and second rounders on that offensive line that was veteran players like all pro center Ryan Kalil. Greg Olsen at TE, Steve Smith at WR.

 

That 2011 Panther team was 11th in rushing attempts yet were #3 in yards, #1 in TDs and #1 in YPA. Granted Newton had 706 yards rushing and 14 rushing TD's. He also had 4051 passing yards. 

 

Now Allen will have McCoy at RB, Benjamin at WR, Charles Clay at TE. But his offensive line will be hot garbage with no Incognito, Woods or Glenn. That all-pro at left guard made both the center and left tackle that looked so much better than they actually were. 

 

The Buffalo Bills need to drastically upgrade the talent on that offensive line or no QB  will play well in 2018.

 

Agree.  I think one of the reasons to have Allen sit is that early in the season is that AJ McCarron would probably play better with a crappy Oline.  Yes, AJ hasn't taken many NFL snaps but he's had time to learn NFL offenses and probably would play better with the current lineup. Still sucks for AJ but in the long run it might make more sense for the team. If AJ doesn't perform with the current lineup, it could be worth seeing what Allen could do.  

 

 

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1 minute ago, Buffalo30 said:

Josh Allen's senior bowl was really solid.  The game was solid as well.  He made some throws down the field just like this one that should make Bills fans jump for joy.  We as a fan base have been begging for a guy to throw the ball down the field, this is the guy to do that.  I still drool over his touchdown throws in the senior bowl game.

 

He did well in the 3rd quarter of the Senior Bowl after playing poorly in the 1st half.  Either way I don't put much stock into the game with defenses limited in how they are allowed to apply pressure. 

 

What?!?

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14 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

If Rudolph turns out good he'll look like a genius. Might be worth waiting to see what happens before assuming he's wrong.

I'm not assuming anything except that his obvious preference for one qb most likely skews his impression of another.

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7 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

 

Now Allen will have McCoy at RB, Benjamin at WR, Charles Clay at TE. But his offensive line will be hot garbage with no Incognito, Woods or Glenn. That all-pro at left guard made both the center and left tackle that looked so much better than they actually were. 

 

The Buffalo Bills need to drastically upgrade the talent on that offensive line or no QB will play well in 2018.

 

This is actually a pretty funny set of statements.  No Incognito, Woods, or Glenn means bad OL -- but Incognito made Woods look better than he is, and Glenn didn't even play.

 

I read this to mean if the Bills find a competent replacement for Incognito they won't have lost much (if anything).  Groy did very well two years ago subbing for Wood, and Dawkins should improve in his 2nd year after holding his own last season.

 

That said, I agree with your premise that the OL is a key to any QB performing well.

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by Jim Kubiak, Special to Buffalo Sports Page

The jump from Collegiate to Professional football is the greatest transition a football player makes in his lifetime. This profound leap is multifactorial, in that there are many layers that determine a players’ ultimate success at the highest level of competition . It is this study of these specific factors that we as fans are so very interested in. I would like to offer a brief glimpse into several categorical layers that may lead to the successful development of NFL Quarterbacks, and in particular Bills’ 1st round pick, Josh Allen.

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