Chris Trapasso: A Plan for the Bills to Get the Most Out of Josh Allen

[Mat68]

Removing Cam's rookie year makes little sense.  He was not expected to be a good pocket passer off thr start.  Seems to have some revisionist history.  The premise is correct to me.  Everyone is going horizontal, run the ball and go vertical.  Imo to help Allen they need to find a guy with deep speed and stress the offense.  Maybe they think a healthy streater is that guy but im not sure.  

[RollBillsRoll]

12 hours ago, Perry Turtle said:

  He's easily the most talented QB on the Bills roster, 

 

Most talented?  Or biggest arm?

 

You've got a a guy with 2 national titles

Lost 3 games in three years

Finished 2nd in Heisman Voting

Won the Maxwell Award as Top College Football Player

Won the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm award

And a guy the SI asked "is he the best ever?"

 

 

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, RollBillsRoll said:

Most talented?  Or biggest arm?

 

You've got a a guy with 2 national titles

Lost 3 games in three years

Finished 2nd in Heisman Voting

Won the Maxwell Award as Top College Football Player

Won the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm award

And a guy the SI asked "is he the best ever?"

 

 

 

None of that means a thing with respect to his NFL capabilities as a QB.   

[BuffaloHokie13]

2 minutes ago, RollBillsRoll said:

Most talented?  Or biggest arm?

 

You've got a a guy with 2 national titles

Lost 3 games in three years

Finished 2nd in Heisman Voting

Won the Maxwell Award as Top College Football Player

Won the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm award

And a guy the SI asked "is he the best ever?"

 

 

And then every team in the league passed on him at least 4 times.

[Jay_Fixit]

15 hours ago, Zac said:

I'd be surprised if Allen is never a 60%+ completion % guy, but that's just me.  I understand the principal of the article though.  

To be fair, Cam Newton has only ever completed 60% of his passes twice in 7 seasons.

[REDRUM]

For anyone of you who doubts Allen go watch REisen podcasts with Trent Dilfer and then Jordan Palmer. Both those former qbs said comp% is worst way to judge accuracy and that he was the most accurate of all qbs they worked with

[Bobby Hooks]

 

i just don’t see it. 

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, eball said:

After watching some tape on Allen since he was drafted (mea culpa -- I watched nary a bit on any QB before the draft) I have come around to the conclusion that he is not, per se, "inaccurate." 

 

The film I've watched since we drafted him confirms what I saw before we drafted him - he has area code accuracy too often. On a lot of throws he'll get the ball somewhere in the vicinity of his receiver but it isn't precise ball placement that maximizes YAC. That worries me more than anything else because I don't think that can be improved. I think precise ball placement is more or less a natural ability. That's where Chris is coming from in this article, we have to accept that Allen's ball placement will not always be precise, but he will be able to make certain throws that no other QB can make. Our offense will need to be designed around this fundamental limit to his game.

1 hour ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

Drool worthy throw!

 

 

He is more accurate on throws like this than he is on screens. Our offense will need to be built on big plays downfield.

[RollBillsRoll]

10 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

None of that means a thing with respect to his NFL capabilities as a QB.   

 

Oh, I 100% agree. But what else can you base talent on?  Looking good vs. air in shorts and helmet, sure you can get an idea, measuring how far you can throw a ball, yes another metric. Josh Allen looks amazing at both of those things. I am not saying anything negative about him. My post was more to the point that don't discount other metrics for measuring talent.  Championships, experience, awards, stats, level of competition, winning against NFL competition, playoff experience, etc.  vs. Throwing the ball a long way...

 

I just don't buy that you have  a guy who has all these accomplishments and accolades, has done it over and over against the best in CFB, is LESS talented than a guy who hasn't...

Time will tell and I am looking forward to the competition. Go Bills!

[26CornerBlitz]

2 minutes ago, RollBillsRoll said:

 

Oh, I 100% agree. But what else can you base talent on?  Looking good vs. air in shorts and helmet, sure you can get an idea, measuring how far you can throw a ball, yes another metric. Josh Allen looks amazing at both of those things. I am not saying anything negative about him. My post was more to the point that don't discount other metrics for measuring talent.  Championships, experience, awards, stats, level of competition, winning against NFL competition, playoff experience, etc.  vs. Throwing the ball a long way...

 

I just don't buy that you have  a guy who has all these accomplishments and accolades, has done it over and over against the best in CFB, is LESS talented than a guy who hasn't...

Time will tell and I am looking forward to the competition. Go Bills!

 

You don't have to buy it, but NFL talent evaluators do and that's exactly why he was a 5th round pick who subsequently had no takers when he reached UFA until he accepted backup money from the Bills after all of the starting QB jobs were filled.  Speaks volumes whether you want to accept it or not. 

Edited May 3, 2018 by 26CornerBlitz

[Tatonka68]

15 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

Here's a plan for the Bills to get the most out of Josh Allen, and it involves Cam Newton

When creating a scheme for Allen, the Bills should look to a quarterback head coach Sean McDermott knows well

 

by Chris Trapasso

 

By drafting Josh Allen, the Bills took the biggest risk of all the teams that selected a quarterback in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft.

 

Despite being the most physically-imposing quarterback to enter the NFL in some time, the Wyoming product joins the league with three major flaws to his game. That combination led to Allen being one of the most polarizing signal-caller prospects of the last decade, but he was still a top-10 pick.

 

The moment his name was announced by Roger Goodell, I was confused as to why the Bills decided to take a risk on such a dicey project at quarterback in this draft of all drafts, and I'm skeptical it will work out for him in Buffalo.

 

My concerns with Allen are as follows:

 

• Lack of consistent accuracy
• Habitually leaving the pocket at the first sign of pressure
• Tendency to "overextend" plays while improvising, frequently throwing off-balance into precarious situations

Completion percentage is based on thrown balls caught, it is not a good measurement of accuracy. What percentage of Completions would Rosen had if he played in the wind and cold with the same talent Allen had. Allen had a 68% completion rate in the senior bowl when he played with more talented team.

[REDRUM]

All Allen needs to do is complete 1 more ppg and he'd be 60%. With that arm talent and athleticism that's all we need in WNY for him to be potentially all pro by his 2nd season 

[RollBillsRoll]

4 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

You don't have to buy it, but NFL talent evaluators do and that's exactly why he was a 5th round pick who subsequently had no takers when he reached UFA until he accepted backup money from the Bills after all of the starting QB jobs were filled.  Speaks volumes whether you want to accept it or not. 

You sir speak the truth...nothing to be argued. Simply stating that there are other qualities and/ormetrics to look at when looking at talent.

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, RollBillsRoll said:

You sir speak the truth...nothing to be argued. Simply stating that there are other qualities and/ormetrics to look at when looking at talent.

 

He'll have a great chance to prove exactly what kind of QB he is beginning with OTAs all the way through the preseason.  Cheers!

[teef]

2 hours ago, Soda Popinski said:

I've missed you

well look who's here.

[Soda Popinski]

Just now, teef said:

well look who's here.

oh my

[teef]

1 minute ago, Soda Popinski said:

oh my

that's right.  pointing to my junk and everything.

[Soda Popinski]

1 minute ago, teef said:

that's right.  pointing to my junk and everything.

By your junk you mean Applebees right?   

[Mat68]

In college Aj Mccarron had vastly superior talent around him vs the team they played every game of his career.  In college the better roster wins.  Im interested to see how Allen does when he is not at a talent disadvantage.  

[Wayne Arnold]

27 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

The film I've watched since we drafted him confirms what I saw before we drafted him - he has area code accuracy too often. On a lot of throws he'll get the ball somewhere in the vicinity of his receiver but it isn't precise ball placement that maximizes YAC. That worries me more than anything else because I don't think that can be improved. I think precise ball placement is more or less a natural ability. That's where Chris is coming from in this article, we have to accept that Allen's ball placement will not always be precise, but he will be able to make certain throws that no other QB can make. Our offense will need to be designed around this fundamental limit to his game.

 

He is more accurate on throws like this than he is on screens. Our offense will need to be built on big plays downfield.

 

I don't agree. Allen has precise throwing accuracy with his arm...when his feet are set and he has proper motion. He's proven that.

 

The issue is that he had such sloppy footwork at Wyoming that caused not-so-perfect throws. Not to mention his extreme gunslinger mentality that was never fully addressed for one reason or another.

 

Either (a) his coaches at Wyoming didn't care to correct his mechanics and decision-making because he made so many big plays regardless of them that the good outweighed the bad, (b) his coaches were too inept to properly teach him, or (c) they taught him but he either refused to or is incapable of learning.

 

I'm guessing it's not (c) because he seemed to make progress under Palmer in the pre-draft process - at least with regard to his footwork. I think the answer is mostly (a) - the only way to score touchdowns or make plays in that horrid offense with his struggling surrounding support was to force plays. Although I'm sure Allen deserved some blame as well.

 

Can this staff teach him how to manage a football game? We'll see.

[Zac]

44 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

The film I've watched since we drafted him confirms what I saw before we drafted him - he has area code accuracy too often. On a lot of throws he'll get the ball somewhere in the vicinity of his receiver but it isn't precise ball placement that maximizes YAC. That worries me more than anything else because I don't think that can be improved. I think precise ball placement is more or less a natural ability. That's where Chris is coming from in this article, we have to accept that Allen's ball placement will not always be precise, but he will be able to make certain throws that no other QB can make. Our offense will need to be designed around this fundamental limit to his game.

 

He is more accurate on throws like this than he is on screens. Our offense will need to be built on big plays downfield.

 

 

What?  Isn't he saying the complete opposite?

 

Allen has an accuracy problem much more than a ball-placement issue, and I categorize those weaknesses differently. 

Former Bills first-rounder EJ Manuel had a ball-placement issue, meaning the vast majority of his throws that were technically accurate enough for his receivers to make a catch were typically a little too high, too low, behind, or too out in front of their intended target. 

Allen will throw five strikes in a row with pinpoint accuracy, then launch a pass three yards over a wideout's head. That style is most manageable in a system with lower completion percentage expectations in the first place. 

Edited May 3, 2018 by Zac

[Mat68]

7 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

I don't agree. Allen has precise throwing accuracy with his arm...when his feet are set and he has proper motion. He's proven that.

 

The issue is that he had such sloppy footwork at Wyoming that caused not-so-perfect throws. Not to mention his extreme gunslinger mentality that was never fully addressed for one reason or another.

 

Either (a) his coaches at Wyoming didn't care to correct his mechanics and decision-making because he made so many big plays regardless of them that the good outweighed the bad, (b) his coaches were too inept to properly teach him, or (c) they taught him but he either refused to or is incapable of learning.

 

I'm guessing it's not (c) because he seemed to make progress under Palmer in the pre-draft process - at least with regard to his footwork. I think the answer is mostly (a) - the only way to score touchdowns or make plays in that horrid offense with his struggling surrounding support was to force plays. Although I'm sure Allen deserved some blame as well.

 

Can this staff teach him how to manage a football game? We'll see.

He never going to become Brady.  To me he will be very farvish.  He is going to throw ints.  Hes also going to make crazy plays.  Imo you try to make him be more calculated.  You dont want him to be something he is not but be mindful situations and what is needed to win.

[Wayne Arnold]

Just now, Mat68 said:

He never going to become Brady.  To me he will be very farvish.  He is going to throw ints.  Hes also going to make crazy plays.  Imo you try to make him be more calculated.  You dont want him to be something he is not but be mindful situations and what is needed to win.

 

Yep. They say it's easier to reign in an overly-aggressive quarterback than it is to attempt to convince a tentative one to take more chances.

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, Tatonka68 said:

Completion percentage is based on thrown balls caught, it is not a good measurement of accuracy. What percentage of Completions would Rosen had if he played in the wind and cold with the same talent Allen had. Allen had a 68% completion rate in the senior bowl when he played with more talented team.

 

Who mentioned completion percentage? His inaccuracy shows up on the tape, not in the stats. He will probably never be a precise QB. That doesn't mean he can't be good. Cam Newton had an MVP season throwing to a bunch of nobodies. So the hope is that Allen can get to that level and then, unlike Cam, sustain it. He's a lot smarter than Cam - 37 wonderlic score for Allen vs 21 for Cam - so that gives me hope he'll do what the coaches ask him and we will make his style work.

[Rebel101]

This article is good but basically leaves it up to the OC...he will have to teach AJM and allen 2 different offenses because AJM could thrive in a WCO and this article suggests Allen should not even attempt it. So that is clearly something our OC will have to figure out. Great post tho

[Jay_Fixit]

4 hours ago, Soda Popinski said:

I've missed you

And he misses a lot of things.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

I see, so build an offense around the QBs strengths and weaknesses?

 

this is a brilliant idea.   Now someone needs to go sign Ted Ginn

[Tatonka68]

56 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Who mentioned completion percentage? His inaccuracy shows up on the tape, not in the stats. He will probably never be a precise QB. That doesn't mean he can't be good. Cam Newton had an MVP season throwing to a bunch of nobodies. So the hope is that Allen can get to that level and then, unlike Cam, sustain it. He's a lot smarter than Cam - 37 wonderlic score for Allen vs 21 for Cam - so that gives me hope he'll do what the coaches ask him and we will make his style work.

All the tape I saw shows otherwise. He was the only QB hit hit the crossbar from 35 yards. (3:16 mark)

 

Edited May 3, 2018 by Tatonka68

[26CornerBlitz]

This is related:

Schofield: What play designs are best for first-round QB prospects early in NFL careers? | Pro Football Weekly

 

Josh Allen - Buffalo Bills

Perhaps the most interesting schematic fit out of this group of quarterbacks comes with the seventh overall pick, where we find the Buffalo Bills trading up in the first round to find perhaps their quarterback of the future, Wyoming’s Josh Allen. In Buffalo, Allen will come under the tutelage of Brian Daboll, the new offensive coordinator fresh off a year in that capacity with the Alabama Crimson Tide.

 

What makes this a more interesting marriage of player and scheme is that Daboll comes off the Erhardt-Perkins coaching tree. This is the offense most associated with the New England Patriots, which is known for both its simplified terminology, as well as its reliance on timing and rhythm in the passing game with the inclusion of route conversions on almost every play or concept. At first blush this might not seem like the best of offenses for Allen, who is experienced in a run-oriented, vertical passing game that implemented lots of play-action designs.

 

But as is the case with most offenses, there is a bit of carry-over from one scheme to another. It is difficult to find a pure “West Coast” or a pure “Erhardt-Perkins” offense, as every offensive coordinator draws from other schools of thought when putting together a playbook. Assuming that Daboll’s playbook in Buffalo will look similar to Alabama’s playbook, you will find “Seattle.”

[HappyDays]

11 minutes ago, Tatonka68 said:

All the tape I saw shows otherwise. He was the only QB hit hit the crossbar from 35 yards. (3:16 mark)

 

 

I don't really care what a QB does in shorts with no one else on the field. If you watch his game tape there is a lot of imprecise passing. His receivers have to control their bodies or stop running to catch his passes. Dump offs and screens are not thrown with good touch. JMO from what I saw on his tape.

[BuffaloHokie13]

25 minutes ago, Tatonka68 said:

All the tape I saw shows otherwise. He was the only QB hit hit the crossbar from 35 yards. (3:16 mark)

I understand it, but this is a very silly test. I'd much rather have a guy that hits the bar 9/10 times, even if he misses his first attempt, than a guy who happens to hit it on his first try.

[26CornerBlitz]

What are the Buffalo Bills getting in Josh Allen? Q&A with Wyoming writer Brandon Foster

 

Orchard Park, N.Y. -- It's been a week since the Buffalo Bills drafted Josh Allen to be their quarterback of the future, and the buzz surrounding the pick hasn't died down. 

 

We may not get answers to some of the questions about Allen until the Wyoming quarterback hits the field for the Bills, but we tried anyway. Brandon Foster of the Casper Star-Tribune has covered Allen for the last two years at Wyoming. He got an up close look at his rise from unknown junior college product to top 10 NFL pick. We asked him a few questions about Allen to get a sense of the player the Bills are getting from the perspective of someone who watched him up close at Wyoming. 

 

If you're still on the fence about Allen, read Foster's recent column on what makes Allen so easy to root for.

[Scorp83]

8 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

Drool worthy throw!

 

I can make that throw too with NO pass rush...whats your point?

4 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I don't really care what a QB does in shorts with no one else on the field. If you watch his game tape there is a lot of imprecise passing. His receivers have to control their bodies or stop running to catch his passes. Dump offs and screens are not thrown with good touch. JMO from what I saw on his tape.

THANK YOU!

Edited May 3, 2018 by Scorp83

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, Scorp83 said:

I can make that throw too with NO pass rush...whats your point?

THANK YOU!

 

Great! Post a Youtube video of yourself making that easy throw.  Make sure you have a sling and 911 on speed dial. 

[The Now Moment]

8 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

He did well in the 3rd quarter of the Senior Bowl after playing poorly in the 1st half.  Either way I don't put much stock into the game with defenses limited in how they are allowed to apply pressure. 

I know I mentioned some throws from the game but I was more referencing the week of practice he had at the senior bowl.  He made some nice improvements with his footwork.  

[RiotAct]

23 hours ago, White Linen said:

Stopped reading after this:

 

By drafting Josh Allen, the Bills took the biggest risk of all the teams that selected a quarterback in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft.

why’s that?  It’s a true statement.

[RollBillsRoll]

13 hours ago, Mat68 said:

In college Aj Mccarron had vastly superior talent around him vs the team they played every game of his career.  In college the better roster wins.  Im interested to see how Allen does when he is not at a talent disadvantage.  

Agreed, but that also works both ways. Allen NEVER played regularly against defenses loaded with nfl talent like AjMac did...

[Nihilarian]

13 hours ago, eball said:

 

This is actually a pretty funny set of statements.  No Incognito, Woods, or Glenn means bad OL -- but Incognito made Woods look better than he is, and Glenn didn't even play.

 

I read this to mean if the Bills find a competent replacement for Incognito they won't have lost much (if anything).  Groy did very well two years ago subbing for Wood, and Dawkins should improve in his 2nd year after holding his own last season.

 

That said, I agree with your premise that the OL is a key to any QB performing well.

What I was basically saying was that when you have such a strong stabilizing force at left guard it helps both the center and left tackle play better. Woods was an above average player and so was Glenn without Incognito and an all pro in there allowed them to be even better.

 

Replacing all three at once will be a daunting task as the right side was already weak with Mills at right tackle and I can only think that before Glenn's injury Dawkins was brought in to lock down that RT position. Now that isn't going to happen. 

We really don't know how good Dawkins will be at LT without that stabilizing force next to him and he may or may not hold up well this season.

 

The Bills have Groy listed as an OG on the website with Russell and Adam as centers. Ducasse, Groy Miller, and Teller at OG. Dawkins, James, McDermott, Mills, Newhouse, Wesley at tackle. 

 

From what I see they lost all continuity on that line and losing all three veteran quality starters will be a huge issue going forward. This reminds me of 2010 where the Bills line was a hot mess and that year they even had Wood, Levitre. That season started 0-8 and finished 4-12 because the QBs were running for their lives most of the time. That season the Bills had Fitz who was able to do his Mike Vick impression with 269 yards rushing @ 6.7 YPC avg. 

 

Man, I can only hope that Allen isn't thrown into the fire with that current line or all the effort and picks put into finding that unique talent will be wasted. JMHO. 

 

[Logic]

My ideal world is this:

Josh Allen starts around week 10 or 11 and finishes out the year (assuming we're out of the playoff race, of course). That way, he gets some live reps. I don't want him starting the year, but I DO think it's important to get some real game action in year one.

The following offseason is then devoted solely to improving the offense. Draft offense, throw some big free agency money at offense, you name it. Get quality linemen, receivers, and even a replacement/understudy for Shady. Max out the offense. Give Allen the best possible chance to succeed.

Will this ideal have a chance to play out? Time will tell.

[BillsFan17]

7 hours ago, Scorp83 said:

I can make that throw too with NO pass rush...whats your point?

THANK YOU!

No you can't