Aaron Schatz: 2018 QB Boom and Bust Projections with QBASE

[KDIGGZ]

7 minutes ago, PetermanThrew5Picks said:

Glad we're talking again. Seriously. I apologize for cursing and trolling. I just have a strong opinion on the matter; I absolutely live for the emotional rollercoaster every Bills season and the fun narratives and discussion on this board. I clown around in the offseason, and don't want to clown around for over a year. I want to talk about our favorite Bills stories and whatnot.

Totally understand. To me the mediocre seasons feel like 3 win seasons anyhow. As big of a fan as I am there have been years with JP, Trent, and Fitz where I didn't even watch the games. I like QB's and not having one kills me. Maybe they get one but it's going to cost a ton of picks. No I'm not a fan of trading up but if that's what we have to do to get someone then that is the situation we now find ourselves in.

[HappyDays]

17 minutes ago, PetermanThrew5Picks said:

How do I buy this.

 

I doubt they're on sale anymore, I got it back when he was our starter.

[SouthNYfan]

13 minutes ago, dezertbill said:

I agree about Mayfield.  Felt all off season he is the best prospect next to Darnold

 

Then you wouldn't agree with the article, if you think he's the "best prospect next to darnold" then you don't think he's #1, you think darnold is, but the article says Mayfield is #1

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, DCOrange said:

Keeping in mind that these ratings do not factor rushing in at all, which obviously hurts Lamar the most.

 

The overall rankings are:

 

1. Baker Mayfield (4th highest they've had dating back to 1997, behind only Philip Rivers, Carson Palmer, and Donovan McNabb)

2. Lamar Jackson

3. Josh Rosen

4. Sam Darnold

5. Mason Rudolph

6. Luke Falk

7. Kyle Lauletta

8. Josh Allen

like I've said stay clear of Allen

[Bing Bong]

Just now, kdiggz said:

Totally understand. To me the mediocre seasons feel like 3 win seasons anyhow. As big of a fan as I am there have been years with JP, Trent, and Fitz where I didn't even watch the games. I like QB's and not having one kills me. Maybe they get one but it's going to cost a ton of picks. No I'm not a fan of trading up but if that's what we have to do to get someone then that is the situation we now find ourselves in.

I guess I'm pretty apathetic at the QB position in regards to my enjoyment watching the game. Love seeing freak athlete plays rather than a QB methodically hitting open receivers. Don't get me wrong, I want that QB but a game dogging it out with freak plays, Hughes making a clutch sack strip to seal the game, Tre White intercepting over Gronk, Shady dancing, Robert Woods double run blocking safeties for a Shady run.. that's my enjoyment of the game, so long as we win. I've been crusading about getting a freak WR cause I love circus catches. That said I'm young enough where my first experience was crying as a kid watching the music city miracle so I don't really know what good QB play looks like lol.

 

Counterpoint: Browns Bills 6-3 with Derek Anderson like 2 for 20 was horrible to watch.

[dbflaBill]

2 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

like I've said stay clear of Allen

couldnt agree more. He is going to fall out of the first round. Big arm and size is literally all he has. Slow at progressions, not a great football IQ, lack of touch. 

[bouds]

Allen is EJ Manuel.  Looks good in a uniform, some physical ability, but he's just not a good QB.  You have to fool yourself into believing he's going to be a completely different QB at the NFL, it's just not a likely outcome.

[jkirchofer]

I honestly don't care if we trade up or draft a QB at 12, anyone of the eight listed are capable of being a franchise quarterback. Whoever it is, I want them to come into preseason with some swagger, with some confidence, and to act like a damn leader. This is a playoff team. They need someone out front to let the league and the rest of the world know that they are going to take that next step.

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, ddaryl said:

I'm on the Mayfield bandwagon

Ive loved Mayfield all along....his fire and swagger remind me so much of Kelly

[jrober38]

Mayfield is the only player in 15 years to post a college QBR Rating above 90 in back to back years. 

 

The only players to surpass that mark:

 

• Andrew Luck
• Marcus Mariota
• Sam Bradford
• Cam Newton
• Russell Wilson
• Jameis Winston
• Johnny Manziel

Mayfield is going to be a really good pro. 

[jdonley1180]

Wasn't Schatz one of the few analysts that went out on a limb by saying Russel Wilson should be a 1st round draft pick?

[Rad Likes The Bills]

Jackson at 12 and we will straight for a decade

[26CornerBlitz]

 

 

[buffalobloodfloridahome]

I just keep seeing things about Lamar Jackson coming up short in allot of areas and higher ups and GMs really not taking him seriously as a QB. Apparently his mother is Representing him and telling him not to run the 40 at  his pro day as well which just seems stupid to me. I have watched multiple Louisville games and it always seemed when the competition was good he struggled. Where as Deshaun Watson would rise to the occasion. Saw him always trying to make the big play and rarely checking down. He did keep his eyes down field when rolling out. Missed allot of throws though. Many have said his mechanics need allot of work and his accuracy just isn't there. I know someone will show a highlight reel of all the throws he can make, I'm just not sold mostly because I am continually reading things calling him a huge project. Mayfield's height scares me, but I love his gamer mentality very Phillip Rivers like minus the height. Rosen has poise and great mechanics as well as accuracy absolutely love this guy. Darnold has great creativity, but again seems to always try to hit the home run instead of live to play another day. Allen is raw with a cannon could be great could be terrible only time will tell. Rudolph can probably be a solid QB in the right system I don't see him being a superstar.

[TheElectricCompany]

2 minutes ago, buffalobloodfloridahome said:

Apparently his mother is Representing him and telling him not to run the 40 at  his pro day as well which just seems stupid to me.

I've been struggling with this as well. 

It's his decision, but why forego an agent? They know the process, the teams, the front office personnel, etc. etc. 

 

[buffalobloodfloridahome]

1 minute ago, TheElectricCompany said:

I've been struggling with this as well. 

It's his decision, but why forego an agent? They know the process, the teams, the front office personnel, etc. etc. 

 

We all know he can run. What we don't know is how he measures up against the other QBs. I get it he doesn't want to be key holed into being just a running QB but at some time you have to flash the goods. Am I Right?

[Buffalo Barbarian]

On 3/23/2018 at 12:47 PM, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

 

There is so much evidence for Baker Mayfield being the number one QB it's ridiculous  that he is not. Just add TWO INCHES and it not even a discussion.

 

 

[TheElectricCompany]

2 minutes ago, buffalobloodfloridahome said:

We all know he can run. What we don't know is how he measures up against the other QBs. I get it he doesn't want to be key holed into being just a running QB but at some time you have to flash the goods. Am I Right?

 

Yes, he's fast on game tape, but an agent would tell him to run. 

It's an asset, and in these workouts, you can reinforce that to teams. 

His mother may have his best interests at heart, but this is the wrong time and place to be managing your sons business. Hire a professional. 

 

1 minute ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

 

There is so much evidence for Baker Mayfield being the number one QB it's ridiculous  that he is not. Just add TWO INCHES and it not even a discussion.

I'm starting to agree. Tape don't lie, and I think he's got all the other QB prospects beat there. 

Look at Russel Wilson's scouting report. The pros are all there "Can make every throw", "commands offense", "playmaker", "arm strength". The con was that he was short. 

[Buffalo Barbarian]

On 3/23/2018 at 12:53 PM, Coach Tuesday said:

I keep saying it - Mayfield is on his way to a Hall of Fame career.

 

And we will be dumb if we don't try to get him.

 

Walking on to Texas Tech and beating out all those QBs and then saying to yourself , "I'm better than this" and doing the exact same thing at Oklahoma says all you need to know about the man.

 

 

 

[Fadingpain]

On March 23, 2018 at 12:59 PM, oldmanfan said:

And they may all stink, may all be great, or may all be average.  Or some combination of these.  Which is why I just chuckle at these kinds of threads and posts

The notion that it is all 100% unpredictable and up to the football gods to decide is absurd.

 

The knuckle heads running NFL teams need to improve their QB selection criteria.

 

 

 

[oldmanfan]

2 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

The notion that it is all 100% unpredictable and up to the football gods to decide is absurd.

 

The knuckle heads running NFL teams need to improve their QB selection criteria.

 

 

 

It's not 100% random, but close.  What QB criteria would you add that aren't used now? I'd look for ability to process information quickly.

[BigBuff423]

Lamar Jackson detractors should read this, put it up on the fridge and remind themselves they do not know everything....and to read and listen more to those who do true evaluations and not just talking heads who continue to advance silly, petty ideas about what they "think" Jackson is or can become.

[Rigotz]

This is a statistical based model and college statistics are borderline meaningless.

 

Cool story, but I don't really care about this at all.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

14 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

The notion that it is all 100% unpredictable and up to the football gods to decide is absurd.

 

The knuckle heads running NFL teams need to improve their QB selection criteria.

 

 

 

 

Or Play To The players talents.

 

 

[4merper4mer]

On March 23, 2018 at 4:53 PM, Rad Likes The Bills said:

Jackson at 12 and we will straight for a decade

Is that good or bad?

[Buffalo Barbarian]

22 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

 

I'm starting to agree. Tape don't lie, and I think he's got all the other QB prospects beat there. 

Look at Russel Wilson's scouting report. The pros are all there "Can make every throw", "commands offense", "playmaker", "arm strength". The con was that he was short. 

 

Tape don't lie.

 

 

[JohnC]

On ‎3‎/‎23‎/‎2018 at 1:04 PM, HappyDays said:

 

Wow if I had made my own list it would have looked almost exactly like this. I'm torn between Darnold, Rosen, and Jackson, I have them all a step behind Mayfield but I can't tell you which of those 3 I would draft first.

It doesn't matter. Just take one of them and be happy. I'm a Mayfield fan and would love to have him. But I'll gleefully take Jackson with our first pick and keep our remaining picks in our bag. 

[Buffalo Barbarian]

1 minute ago, 4merper4mer said:

Is that good or bad?

 

Bad

 

 

Edited March 29, 2018 by Buffalo Barbarian

[Rad Likes The Bills]

1 hour ago, 4merper4mer said:

Is that good or bad?

i was insinuating it would be good hence the decade part...

[Batman1876]

2 hours ago, Rigotz said:

This is a statistical based model and college statistics are borderline meaningless.

 

Cool story, but I don't really care about this at all.

Except you’re wrong. They can demonstrate the predictive accuracy of their metric. 

[Mikey152]

On 3/23/2018 at 1:32 PM, MJS said:

That's about how I feel about Josh Allen too. In fact, I'm pretty confused why anyone likes him.

He's the biggest, strongest, smartest Quarterback in the draft.  It's not that hard to figure out if you are willing to project these guys a little.

 

Clearly these projection things factor college performance pretty highly...go figure the last two Heisman winners finish at the top.

[MDH]

On 3/23/2018 at 1:00 PM, dbflaBill said:

Mayfield is the best QB since Luck and its not even close. Only reason he is not the consensus number 1 is his height. Literally 2inches away. I've wanted him all year, but admit his height is a concern.

 

 

That isn’t the only reason. He also didn’t run a pro style offense, didn’t have to go through his progressions often and ran an overabundence of screen passes (which is why his completion % is so high) and didn’t throw into tight windows that often. His guys were consistently “college wide open.” He also fails to set his feet before he throws way more often that you’d like to see - even when he has time to throw. He also had a habit of creating pressure where there was none.

 

All that being said, his accuracy on the relatively few tight windows he thew into was good and he was phenomenal while under pressure. I like Mayfield and other than Rosen and Darnold he’s the guy I’d want the Bills to draft, but to claim it’s “only because of his height” that people aren’t high on him isn’t accurate.

[MJS]

17 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

He's the biggest, strongest, smartest Quarterback in the draft.  It's not that hard to figure out if you are willing to project these guys a little.

 

Clearly these projection things factor college performance pretty highly...go figure the last two Heisman winners finish at the top.

 

That's your opinion and I don't agree. He has a strong arm. Just like JaMarcus Russel, huh?

[Mikey152]

5 minutes ago, MJS said:

 

That's your opinion and I don't agree. He has a strong arm. Just like JaMarcus Russel, huh?

You don't agree with what?

 

He is the biggest and strongest.  That's not an opinion.  He is also one of the fastest and most athletic outside of Lamar Jackson.  Also a fact.  He scored the highest of the major QBs on the wonderlich test...And he clearly has the strongest arm.  His accuracy isn't nearly as bad purported, either.

 

So again, it's not hard to see why he is a top prospect.

 

Jamarcus Russell was a lazy idiot.  All they have in common is the arm.  It's a terrible comp.  

 

So is EJ Manual.  EJ has a GREAT completion percentage in college and a super wonky delivery.  

 

Everybody wants Baker Mayfield to be Russell Wilson, but he is nowhere near Wilson physically.  And he isn't nearly as smart as Brees.  Not to mention all the other predictability issues...he could easily be Troy Smith.

Edited March 29, 2018 by Mikey152

[MJS]

4 minutes ago, Mikey152 said:

You don't agree with what?

 

He is the biggest and strongest.  That's not an opinion.  He is also one of the fastest and most athletic outside of Lamar Jackson.  Also a fact.  He scored the highest of the major QBs on the wonderlich test...And he clearly has the strongest arm.  His accuracy isn't nearly as bad purported, either.

 

So again, it's not hard to see why he is a top prospect.

 

Jamarcus Russell was a lazy idiot.  All they have in common is the arm.  It's a terrible comp.  

 

Bust. I'll be happy when the Jets take him.

[SoTier]

On 3/23/2018 at 1:00 PM, dbflaBill said:

Mayfield is the best QB since Luck and its not even close. Only reason he is not the consensus number 1 is his height. Literally 2inches away. I've wanted him all year, but admit his height is a concern.

 

If he's as good as advertised, then his height won't matter.  It hasn't held Brees or Wilson back.  It didn't hold Flutie back, either.  The only red flag on Mayfield really is his height.  Of course, being really tall didn't do much for Mike Glennon or Brock Osweiler.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

On 3/23/2018 at 12:32 PM, MJS said:

That's about how I feel about Josh Allen too. In fact, I'm pretty confused why anyone likes him.

Allen and Jackson should drop to the late 2nd rd. They will probably be overdrafted due to QB demand. 

[SoTier]

On 3/23/2018 at 1:42 PM, kdiggz said:

Yes that's exactly what I'm saying. Trade all players of value. They did trade them but they waited until after the season. Trade them before the season and you try and win with who you have, sure, but with Peterman at QB and who knows at RB we go 3-13 like you said. We would have our QB plus a TON of picks by not having to trade up. Could you imagine? We would be super bowl contenders in 2 yrs.

 

But hey I'm glad everyone liked that embarrassing 3 point playoff performance. Just know that it seriously hurt our rebuilding efforts.

 

And what would be your suggestion for 2020 or 2021 or 2022 if all of the first round QBs in this draft bust, including the Bills #1 pick?   Tank again?  And again?  

 

In case you haven't noticed, perpetual losing too often becomes a cycle that's almost impossible to break as the Cleveland Browns (2005-?), Detroit Lions (2001-2009), Arizona Cardinals (1999-2006), Tampa Bay Bucs (1982-1996), Buffalo Bills (2005-2013) etc

[KDIGGZ]

12 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

And what would be your suggestion for 2020 or 2021 or 2022 if all of the first round QBs in this draft bust, including the Bills #1 pick?   Tank again?  And again?  

 

In case you haven't noticed, perpetual losing too often becomes a cycle that's almost impossible to break as the Cleveland Browns (2005-?), Detroit Lions (2001-2009), Arizona Cardinals (1999-2006), Tampa Bay Bucs (1982-1996), Buffalo Bills (2005-2013) etc

All of the teams you listed didn't have a QB. Get a QB at all costs. Look at PHI and LAR. Do you think they feel bad about trading up for a QB? They went from nobodies to super bowl contenders in 1 year

[MTBill]

Interestingly - the score on Peterman - which says to me he's a backup at best.

 

Nathan Peterman, Pittsburgh (74)

Mean Projection in Years 3-5:	-245 DYAR
Bust (< 500 DYAR)	71.6%
Adequate Starter (500-1499 DYAR)	21.3%
Upper Tier (1500-2500 DYAR)	7.0%
Elite (>2500 DYAR)	0.2%

Dobbs won the Tennessee job over Nathan Peterman, who then transferred and got two years as a starter at Pitt. Last year, he led these eight prospects with 10.1 adjusted passing yards per attempt (passing yards with a 20-yard bonus for touchdowns and a 45-yard penalty for interceptions). However, he did this against the easiest schedule of any of these eight prospects, ranked 59th in FBS, and with the benefit of an offensive line that's likely to get two linemen drafted in the first four rounds (guard Dorian Johnson and tackle Adam Bisnowaty). Combine these facts with a lower expected draft position, and QBASE is very pessimistic about his chances for NFL success.

-------------------------------------------------------

 

Reading what the data says about Jackson makes me really hope he falls to us at 12 and we don't have to trade up at all...  but who knows.  And sort of scratch your head as to why he's mostly panned by the media.  I suspect at least part of this is his "worry" that teams want to draft him as something other than a QB.  Certainly the way he's being handled by his Mom does not seem to be helping his case.