House Money: Why Beane will trade up & you should be fine with it

[Elite Poster]

The Jets just overpaid according to Mr JJ's chart. So we probably will have to overpay more than 15 measly Super JJ Points.

[transplantbillsfan]

Wow!!! I just looked at Yolo's thread about the rumored trade up and if it's true that's what the Bills proposed I was dead on

Edited March 20, 2018 by transplantbillsfan

[OldTimer1960]

7 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

You're seriously underpaying if you think that's how we get to #2.

 

I just think that won't get it done.

 

Yeah I think that's about right. Might need to throw in a 4th rounder this year, though.

 

A GM should do his HW and draft a QB in the top of the draft assuming, based on your scouting, that he's going to be a future HOFer. You don't refuse to go after that QB simply because the historical odds are he won't.

 

 

Perspective check:

1. How often do you think HOF -caliber QBs are available in the draft?  Are you saying tha a team should not draft a QB high in round 1 if they think that he will be good, but not necessarily a HOFer?

2. If you think the Bills can get to the 2nd pick, are there 2 certain HOF QBs in this draft?

Edited March 21, 2018 by OldTimer1960

[apuszczalowski]

1 hour ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Perspective check:

1. How often do you think HOF -caliber QBs are available in the draft?  Are you saying tha a team should not draft a QB high in round 1 if they think that he will be good, but not necessarily a HOFer?

2. If you think the Bills can get to the 2nd pick, are there 2 certain HOF QBs in this draft?

I would say that technically they all are since very few players make it in to the league without going through the draft. So technically, all HOF QBs were at one time available through the draft..........

But I know what your saying (and just making a joke)  that not its not often that the early QBs drafted in the draft end up as HOFers. For every HOF QB drafted in the top 10 of the draft, you can probably count 10 that won't make it or flopped.

 

The key to all of this is that to trade away the assetts that are most likely necessary for the Bills to move up this year, does anyone feel that any of the top 4 are future HOFers or in the elite category of starting QBs? Cause if not, then thats alot to give up for a QB

[Domdab99]

On 3/19/2018 at 5:57 PM, napmaster said:

So if all of those picks are House Money and expendable then take this approach with the draft:

 

#12 Lamar Jackson
#22 Mason Rudolph
#53 Luke Falk
#56 Kyle Lauletta

 

It's the same net result with 0 positon player help.  Bet on the field as none of the Core 4 are can't miss prospects.

 

 

LOL this has just a bit of insane logic to it...

[Domdab99]

There is no "house money." The picks we have were gotten by giving up something in return. 

[transplantbillsfan]

5 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Perspective check:

1. How often do you think HOF -caliber QBs are available in the draft?  Are you saying tha a team should not draft a QB high in round 1 if they think that he will be good, but not necessarily a HOFer?

2. If you think the Bills can get to the 2nd pick, are there 2 certain HOF QBs in this draft?

 

To the first question, you search for the best player in every draft at the time you're drafting. If you're drafting at the top of that draft... yeah, you're drafting a guy who you think could be a HOFer.

 

Top of the draft yields more HOFers than any other area of the draft, plain and simple. Between 1936-1997 there were 111 former 1st round draft picks inducted into the HOF.  31% of all those guys were drafted as the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd picks of the draft. 12% of all those guys were the 1st overall pick.

 

To the 2nd question, that's not my job, that's Beane's job.

[ILBillsfan]

I'm totally fine with them moving up in fact I strongly encourage them the last 17yrs should be proof enough

[mannc]

On 3/19/2018 at 4:59 PM, Real McCoy said:

If it's for their guy then go for it. I think we might trade up to 7-10 to get our guy though for a fraction.

 

Problem is we don't know who "the guy" is?

Wasn’t Zay Jones their guy last year? Or was he a Whaley pick?

[transplantbillsfan]

7 hours ago, ILBillsfan said:

I'm totally fine with them moving up in fact I strongly encourage them the last 17yrs should be proof enough

 

It's baffling to me that all Bills fans don't feel this way.

[sleeby]

My god. . .it's full of stars.  I just had an epiphany - we are all having the exact same conversation over and over, day after day!   ;o)

[Chuck Wagon]

Step 1)  Find out who Cleveland is hopeful to get at 4

 

Step 2) Find out what non-QB the Giants want

 

Step 3) Tell Cleveland the Giants are taking their guy

 

Step 4)  Trade with Cleveland

 

Step 5) Tell the Giant they still get the same exact guy at 4 as 2, but get to screw the Jets

 

Step 6) Profit

[transplantbillsfan]

36 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

Step 1)  Find out who Cleveland is hopeful to get at 4

 

Step 2) Find out what non-QB the Giants want

 

Step 3) Tell Cleveland the Giants are taking their guy

 

Step 4)  Trade with Cleveland

 

Step 5) Tell the Giant they still get the same exact guy at 4 as 2, but get to screw the Jets

 

Step 6) Profit

 

I think the Browns are taking Darnold, particularly after what looked like a potentially historic pro-day for him, which is a shame because he and Mayfield are the 2 QBs I want most.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

There is only 1 QB that I really like from this draft and that's Mayfield. Darnold would be the only other QB I might trade up for if Mayfield is drafted by the Browns. I think Rosen, Allen, Rudolph and Jackson all have major flaws, one or two will be a surprise drop out of the 1st rd.

[transplantbillsfan]

4 hours ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

There is only 1 QB that I really like from this draft and that's Mayfield. Darnold would be the only other QB I might trade up for if Mayfield is drafted by the Browns. I think Rosen, Allen, Rudolph and Jackson all have major flaws, one or two will be a surprise drop out of the 1st rd.

 

Well this is a nice surprise... you and I prioritize the QBs in this class in almost exactly the same way

[transplantbillsfan]

Ya know I really think this just needs to happen soon. Sweetening the pot for the Giants offering both of our 1sts and both of our 2nds should do it.

 

Or if Darnold is truly the guy we covet, add next year's 1st and this year's 3rd to that pot for the Browns at #1.

 

Though ideally we wait until draft day and watch Mayfield slide out of the top 5 and just throw both of our 1sts to the Colts in a trade up to 6...

 

but damn... this waiting is gonna kill me!!!

[Reed83HOF]

28 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Ya know I really think this just needs to happen soon. Sweetening the pot for the Giants offering both of our 1sts and both of our 2nds should do it.

 

Or if Darnold is truly the guy we covet, add next year's 1st and this year's 3rd to that pot for the Browns at #1.

 

Though ideally we wait until draft day and watch Mayfield slide out of the top 5 and just throw both of our 1sts to the Colts in a trade up to 6...

 

but damn... this waiting is gonna kill me!!!

I will be amazed if CLE trades out of 1. It honestly is near impossible, their fan base would kill them...

[Boatdrinks]

56 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

I will be amazed if CLE trades out of 1. It honestly is near impossible, their fan base would kill them...

Yeah it's not happening. Sashi is gone. John Dorsey isn't dumb. 

[Reed83HOF]

3 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

Yeah it's not happening. Sashi is gone. John Dorsey isn't dumb. 

yup...

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, Reed83HOF said:

I will be amazed if CLE trades out of 1. It honestly is near impossible, their fan base would kill them...

 

Dorsey could almost justify the move if he truly likes a QB other than Darnold like Allen or Mayfield a lot considering he's still got the 4th pick and he'd pick up 2 more 1st rounders this year alone

[ALF]

One scenario is that the acquisition of Keenum, coupled with a likely early run on the top quarterbacks in the draft could leave the Broncos tempted to grab a blue-chip, non-quarterback prospect and wait until later in the draft to add a quarterback.

 

https://www.denverpost.com/2018/03/20/broncos-quarterback-options-nfl-draft/
 

[RocCityRoller]

On 3/19/2018 at 8:08 PM, Chuck Wagon said:

Even if it's all 5 picks between 12 - 65, the reality is you are likely giving up 1 pro bowler, 1 borderline pro bowler / solid starter, 1 solid starter, 2 disappointments.  The impact simply pales in comparison to getting a QB who is the face of the franchise for a decade or more.

 

You and 26corner keep saying things like this, assuming Rosen is the face of the franchise for 10+ years. How do you know that? You don't. No one does.

 

I'd rather take 1 pro bowler, 1 borderline pro bowler / solid starter, 1 solid starter, 2 disappointments than a try at a borderline franchise QB, especially in a QB deep draft.  Do you want to hope you land Andrew Luck, and have a weak team, or draft a QB with a few questions and build the team?

 

That is the question.

 

How has 'can't miss Andrew Luck' done without a team?

 

and it's not 'house money' this team traded away its starting QB, LT and #1WR (2 firsts) for these picks.

The OP is like the guy gambling on his credit card because, 'Hey its free money if I win'.

Edited March 25, 2018 by RocCityRoller

[Zerovoltz]

3 hours ago, ALF said:

One scenario is that the acquisition of Keenum, coupled with a likely early run on the top quarterbacks in the draft could leave the Broncos tempted to grab a blue-chip, non-quarterback prospect and wait until later in the draft to add a quarterback.

 

https://www.denverpost.com/2018/03/20/broncos-quarterback-options-nfl-draft/
 

This should have been obvious to everyone the minute Keenum signed his contract....don't need the Denver Post to tell you this....

 

1 hour ago, RocCityRoller said:

 

You and 26corner keep saying things like this, assuming Rosen is the face of the franchise for 10+ years. How do you know that? You don't. No one does.

 

I'd rather take 1 pro bowler, 1 borderline pro bowler / solid starter, 1 solid starter, 2 disappointments than a try at a borderline franchise QB, especially in a QB deep draft.  Do you want to hope you land Andrew Luck, and have a weak team, or draft a QB with a few questions and build the team?

 

That is the question.

 

How has 'can't miss Andrew Luck' done without a team?

 

and it's not 'house money' this team traded away its starting QB, LT and #1WR (2 firsts) for these picks.

The OP is like the guy gambling on his credit card because, 'Hey its free money if I win'.

Healthy Andrew Luck has done VERY WELL without a team around him..he makes them all better.  That's what a franchise QB does.

 

[RocCityRoller]

Funny, I seem to recall Indy has been to the playoffs 3 of 6 years since drafting Luck, making the AFC Championship once with 0 Super Bowl appearances in that span. Each year they had to play in the wild card round, so 0 first round byes, and it's not like they had the Pats, Steelers or Broncos in their division.

 

In 5 years, not counting the year he was knocked out, he is a whopping 9 games over .500. That equates to 9-7or 10-6 depending on rounding (+1.8 games over 8-8)

 

And Indy did not have to sell the farm to get him. They had the pick from tankng, and did not have to spend insane draft capital, or trade away NFL contributors to get the pick to do so. This is not 'house money' as another genius posted.

 

You would think that a team picking the consensus best QB, with its natural draft pick, coming off of multiple playoff appearances in the 5 years before him, in a weak division would do better.

 

But we at TBD should drink the Kool-aid to trade a 1 this year, give up an additional 1 this year and next, and possibly 2 seconds to get the second or third best QB in the draft.

 

All of this despite having one of the oldest rosters in the NFL, and coming off of 1 playoff appearance in 18 years. All to select a guy that quit on a sport when he needed surgery, had a 17-13 record, is not a cultural fit at all, has already had multiple shoulder injuries and concussions, and the team will have less draft capital in the first two years to build around him.

 

Yeah, I'm sure Buffalo betting the house on Rosen will do better than Indy with Luck.

Edited March 25, 2018 by RocCityRoller

[4merper4mer]

2 hours ago, RocCityRoller said:

 

You and 26corner keep saying things like this, assuming Rosen is the face of the franchise for 10+ years. How do you know that? You don't. No one does.

 

I'd rather take 1 pro bowler, 1 borderline pro bowler / solid starter, 1 solid starter, 2 disappointments than a try at a borderline franchise QB, especially in a QB deep draft.  Do you want to hope you land Andrew Luck, and have a weak team, or draft a QB with a few questions and build the team?

 

That is the question.

 

How has 'can't miss Andrew Luck' done without a team?

 

and it's not 'house money' this team traded away its starting QB, LT and #1WR (2 firsts) for these picks.

The OP is like the guy gambling on his credit card because, 'Hey its free money if I win'.

I agree with all of that but something else is even easier to figure out.

 

if it is so hyper critical for the Bills to do "whatever it takes" to get a QB because that is what makes a franchise tick blah blah then why is it fine for the Giants to just pass one up?

 

In some respects the guys screaming from the hilltops for a QB should be the ones to first realize that no amount of "draft capital" will get us to 2 if their very own logic is to be believed.

[Zerovoltz]

13 minutes ago, RocCityRoller said:

Funny, I seem to recall Indy has been to the playoffs 3 of 6 years since drafting Luck, making the AFC Championship once with 0 Super Bowl appearances in that span. Each year they had to play in the wild card round, so 0 first round byes, and it's not like they had the Pats, Steelers or Broncos in their division.

 

In 5 years, not counting the year he was knocked out, he is a whopping 9 games over .500. That equates to 9-7or 10-6 depending on rounding (+1.8 games over 8-8)

 

And Indy did not have to sell the farm to get him. They had the pick from tankng, and did not have to spend insane draft capital, or trade away NFL contributors to get the pick to do so. This is not 'house money' as another genius posted.

 

You would think that a team picking the consensus best QB, with its natural draft pick, coming off of multiple playoff appearances in the 5 years before him, in a weak division would do better.

 

But we at TBD should drink the Kool-aid to trade a 1 this year, give up an additional 1 this year and next, and possibly 2 seconds to get the second or third best QB in the draft.

 

All of this despite having one of the oldest rosters in the NFL, and coming off of 1 playoff appearance in 18 years. All to select a guy that quit on a sport when he needed surgery, had a 17-13 record, is not a cultural fit at all, has already had multiple shoulder injuries and concussions, and the team will have less draft capital in the first two years to build around him.

 

Yeah, I'm sure Buffalo betting the house on Rosen will do better than Indy with Luck.

Umm... did you happen to notice those Colts “teams” made the playoffs with Peyton Manning, they lose him, and the “team” finished with the worst record in football.  They draft Luck, and they are are a playoff team again.  Luck gets hurt and they end up with the third pick in the draft.  I am not very smart but I think this is what is referred to as a pattern.

[4merper4mer]

8 minutes ago, Zerovotlz said:

Umm... did you happen to notice those Colts “teams” made the playoffs with Peyton Manning, they lose him, and the “team” finished with the worst record in football.  They draft Luck, and they are are a playoff team again.  Luck gets hurt and they end up with the third pick in the draft.  I am not very smart but I think this is what is referred to as a pattern.

Kim Jung QB is above reproach.

[mannc]

6 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

Yeah it's not happening. Sashi is gone. John Dorsey isn't dumb. 

Cleveland’s not trading out of 4, either.  They don’t need or want more draft picks.

[NewEraBills]

5 hours ago, ALF said:

One scenario is that the acquisition of Keenum, coupled with a likely early run on the top quarterbacks in the draft could leave the Broncos tempted to grab a blue-chip, non-quarterback prospect and wait until later in the draft to add a quarterback.

 

https://www.denverpost.com/2018/03/20/broncos-quarterback-options-nfl-draft/
 

 

I thought about this but I just don't see it given next year's class.  The Donkey's could go with Keenum this year and the following year but then they probably will not be in this position to snag a "franchise" type guy. They could draft that guy this year and let him sit behind Keenum and be ready to take over when Keenum is done, which could be next year or the year after.  This QB class is like a "last chance" until who knows when for a lot of teams.

[Reed83HOF]

8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Dorsey could almost justify the move if he truly likes a QB other than Darnold like Allen or Mayfield a lot considering he's still got the 4th pick and he'd pick up 2 more 1st rounders this year alone

Hope...it's a fickle thing. It sure would be nice though..

[transplantbillsfan]

10 hours ago, ALF said:

One scenario is that the acquisition of Keenum, coupled with a likely early run on the top quarterbacks in the draft could leave the Broncos tempted to grab a blue-chip, non-quarterback prospect and wait until later in the draft to add a quarterback.

 

https://www.denverpost.com/2018/03/20/broncos-quarterback-options-nfl-draft/
 

 

God I hope so... this would bode well for the acquisition of Mayfield 

Edited March 25, 2018 by transplantbillsfan

[BillsFan17]

The giants aren't trading out of the top ten.

[Putin]

On 3/19/2018 at 7:01 PM, billsfan11 said:

I think Bills will have to give up more than that to get to two.

 

I think it’s going to cost them both 1st this years and next years as well.

This ^^^^^

[#34fan]

So, we bust our hump acquiring all these picks just so we can make the Giants a better team?

 

If that's Beane's idea of manangement, he'll deserve the firing that awaits at the end of this misadventure.

 

[VaMilBill]

On 3/19/2018 at 7:59 PM, Real McCoy said:

If it's for their guy then go for it. I think we might trade up to 7-10 to get our guy though for a fraction.

 

Problem is we don't know who "the guy" is?

I agree. I think the Bills will sit at 12 and see where the draft falls. If one of the QBs we like is there at 7 I think we start gunning hard for that pick. TBH, I hope we don't cut any more deals with Indy after they screwed us. I know it's a business, but I want to see that franchise suffer now

[transplantbillsfan]

4 hours ago, #34fan said:

So, we bust our hump acquiring all these picks just so we can make the Giants a better team?

 

If that's Beane's idea of manangement, he'll deserve the firing that awaits at the end of this misadventure.

 

 

Do you seriously think that Beane busted his hump to acquire all those picks in order to pick a Center and an LB in the 1st round of this draft?

 

If Beane and McDermott don't get one of the 2 or 3 QBs they feel strongly about, this draft will be a failure.

[#34fan]

6 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Do you seriously think that Beane busted his hump to acquire all those picks in order to pick a Center and an LB in the 1st round of this draft?

 

If Beane and McDermott don't get one of the 2 or 3 QBs they feel strongly about, this draft will be a failure.

 

For the record, I'd prefer it be DT, LB... I'd even accept DT, QB (Lamar Jackson @ 22)  

 

People are saying both firsts, a second, and next year's first are on the table, and that's just nuts...

[transplantbillsfan]

3 minutes ago, #34fan said:

 

For the record, I'd prefer it be DT, LB... I'd even accept DT, QB (Lamar Jackson @ 22)  

 

People are saying both firsts, a second, and next year's first are on the table, and that's just nuts...

 

It's not nuts at all, actually.

 

You just seem a little out of touch with reality.

 

In order for the Eagles to move up from #8 to #2, it cost them their 1st, 3rd & 4th in 2016 PLUS their 1st in 2017 PLUS their 1st in 2018.

 

And it doesn't appear as though they mortgaged their future either considering... ya know... Super Bowl 

[#34fan]

7 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

It's not nuts at all, actually.

 

You just seem a little out of touch with reality.

 

In order for the Eagles to move up from #8 to #2, it cost them their 1st, 3rd & 4th in 2016 PLUS their 1st in 2017 PLUS their 1st in 2018.

 

And it doesn't appear as though they mortgaged their future either considering... ya know... Super Bowl 

 

 

It's Hilarious that you think any of the "top rated QB's in this Draft are like Carson Wentz... Shows how in touch "with reality" you are...

 

Philly waited 17 years to take a QB in the 1st round. (McNabb was the last)... And in the end, It wasn't Wentz that won the Superbowl, it was 3rd round Journeyman Nick Foles.

 

Never mind that there was a solid supporting cast in place when Wentz did get there. (OT, WR, TE), ... Then they loaded up at other support positions like RB (Blount, Ajayi)

 

You think we're following their blueprint for success?

 

9 times out of 10 in 'monkey-see/ monkey do', the monkey gets it wrong.

 

 

[Reed83HOF]

14 minutes ago, #34fan said:

9 times out of 10 in 'monkey-see/ monkey do', the monkey gets it wrong.

I thought it got spanked...