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Why not give McCarron an honest chance?


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21 hours ago, Bills4life1924 said:

They call it "the process" for a reason. I highly doubt McCarron was part of the thinking behind "the process". Plus Beane had no intention of even signing AJ until the night before he actually signed him. Beane admitted that he contacted Hue Jackson and previous coaches the night before McCarrin put ink to paper. If they really thought highly of him, McBeane would have done their homework prior to the night before.

 

 

...at the same time IMO, McBeane waited for the "legal (?)" tampering and 4:01PM FA feeding frenzy to be over with crazy money abound and had a number in mind that he was willing to pay for a QB......it quickly went from a seller's market to a buyer's market where agents start scrambling to find work for their unemployed clients.....thought he played the hand well......other than the botched Cleveland trade, do not recall major mention of McCarron heading into FA.....

Edited by OldTimeAFLGuy
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1 hour ago, Tyrod's friend said:



Don't stop there.

He replaced a QB that could have arguably been considered within the top 5 of all NFL QBs in 2015; he went on to complete 65% of his passes in his first year. He won two of three games, and the put in a reputable performance against the Steelers that in reality, the team lost through no fault of AJs. I'm pointing this particular point out because some people are wanting to look at McCarron and compare him to Tyrod. How absurd. The comp in statistics would be to the player he replaced, working in the exact same situation.

It is reasonable enough to say that he was put in a hard situation and the Bengals absorbed very, very little headwinds from it. Did he not pass for a lot of yards? Surely anyone that offers that has got to be joking. Their team was in a playoff run, the top QB was replaced, and we're expecting the OC to put in an aggressive offensive scheme of downfield passing??? I digress.

He heavily criticized his college HC - a legend. Still, after that Nick Saban came to his defense. I suppose that is irrelevant.  

You could go to NFL Tracker.  In 2014, he was rated 5.7 (Eventual NFL Starter). The "other guys"? Bortles, Bridgewater, Carr and Garapolo were all rated between his 5.8 and 6.2. So, three guys that led their teams to the NFL playoffs and a $27MM guy - and that last guy was a career backup until when? 

Let's stop and take a look at Jimmy Garapolo's numbers. 
 

Jimmy Garoppolo Passing Statistics for Career Games 2014 to 2016

 
 
  Games Passing   Passing  
Year Tm G GS QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD TD% Int Int% Lng Y/A AY/A Y/C Y/G Rate QBR Sk Yds NY/A ANY/A Sk% 4QC GWD
2014-2016 NWE 17 2 2-0-0 63 94 67 690 5 5.3 0 0 37 7.3 8.4 11.0 40.6 106.2   8 51 6.26 7.25 7.8  



He had a total of 94 attempts, nearly all of them not coming until 2016. Just to comp ... and remember, NFL Tracker considered the two QBs to be nearly identical in overall rating.
 

A.J. McCarron Passing Statistics for Career Games 2014 to 2015

 
 
  Games Passing   Passing  
Year Tm G GS QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD TD% Int Int% Lng Y/A AY/A Y/C Y/G Rate QBR Sk Yds NY/A ANY/A Sk% 4QC GWD
2014-2015 CIN 7 3 2-1-0 79 119 66.4 854 6 5 2 1.7 66 7.2 7.4 10.8 122.0 97.1   12 63 6.04 6.27 9.2  


Maybe you see a lot of difference there. I don't. They are different players with different limitations but there isn't a reason in heck why a two-time NCAA champion that is supported by Nick Saban, that has had his own level of success in the NFL, that completes passes at a 66% rate for his entire career and admirably led his team down the stretch to a home game against the Steelers ... can't do well in Buffalo. 

If only you surround him with talent. He's not going to do it on his own.

If you're going to use small sample sizes, you better include McCarron's playoff game, in which he had a rating of 68.3 on 41 attempts: 56.1 completion rate, 5.2 ypa, 1 TD, and 1 pick. 

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24 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

So compare all of AJ’s starts to Tyrod’s worst 6 games? That doesn’t seem to be right. He averaged 201 yards passing as the Bills QB. Why try to manipulate the stats instead of using the average? That’s obviously misleading (and disingenuous). There is no need to twist things to create a story. Let the facts speak for themselves.

did TT ever start any games in Baltimore in his sophomore year?     I guess that would be fair .... 

AJ will get his chance.   

 

It's just this ----- 

I just don't get people saying all our QB's suck before they actually have time to prove themselves.   

 

 

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Numbers for a guy like AJM do not mean a lot. If anything they do not support his case though. Rather I suggest watching the film on the guy. You can see some stuff he does better than Tyrod and some stuff he does worse. 

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...hindsight is a beautiful thing, yet once again OBD, "the Mecca Of QB Development, Insight & Nasal Prowess" didn't even give this kid a "a sniff in the 5th" because we were probably set for life at the position.....

Edited by OldTimeAFLGuy
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1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

If you're going to use small sample sizes, you better include McCarron's playoff game, in which he had a rating of 68.3 on 41 attempts: 56.1 completion rate, 5.2 ypa, 1 TD, and 1 pick. 

Yes, of course your underlying point is right; SSS are dangerous. 

But, the QB rating from NFL tracker was based on three or four years of work both the QBs put themselves through, and was a reflection against all the QBs they had ever seen. There is considerable reason to believe that the likelihood of these two QBs are more alike than not. 
 

So there's that. 

And to my knowledge, no one, in any sport anywhere, includes playoff numbers when making comparisons between players. 

Finally, there's this:
 

SEASON TEAM G ATT COMP YDS INT TDS SACKED RATING
2010-11 Eastern Illinois 8 211 124 1639 13 14 18 133.6
2011-12 Eastern Illinois 11 349 217 2644 14 20 28 136.7
2012-13 Eastern Illinois 12 540 331 3823 15 31 29 134.2
2013-14 Eastern Illinois 12 492 320 4489 8 48 15 170.6
TOTAL   43 1592 992 12595 50 113 90 145.9

 

and this:
 

Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
Career Alabama         686 1026 66.9 9019 8.8 9.6 77 15 162.5
*2010 Alabama SEC FR QB 13 30 48 62.5 389 8.1 9.4 3 0 151.2
*2011 Alabama SEC SO QB 13 219 328 66.8 2634 8.0 8.3 16 5 147.3
*2012 Alabama SEC JR QB 14 211 314 67.2 2933 9.3 10.8 30 3 175.3
*2013 Alabama SEC SR QB 13 226 336 67.3 3063 9.1 9.8 28 7 167.2


Do you think there is a whole bunch to differentiate between the two - other than Jimmy threw the ball more? I think those are pretty good sized numbers.

As I say, you are right. But I think my point stands.
Cheers,
A

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Guest K-GunJimKelly12
27 minutes ago, BadtasteinQBs said:

Go watch that Steelers playoff game. It is like watching Trent Edwards after the concussion. It's bad stuff. 

I'm watching it right now and you are right.  Absolutely brutal.  Worse than Tyrod with his accuracy.

Edited by K-GunJimKelly12
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22 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:

 

After he got his feet under him he played well.

https://www.cincyjungle.com/2016/1/10/10745472/bengals-vs-steelers-aj-mccarron-impresses-with-fourth-quarter

 

A lot of negative Nelly's here.

 

After 3 years of Taylor nobody remembers how important it is for the QB to play his best late in games....

Edited by BananaB
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35 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said:

Yes, of course your underlying point is right; SSS are dangerous. 

But, the QB rating from NFL tracker was based on three or four years of work both the QBs put themselves through, and was a reflection against all the QBs they had ever seen. There is considerable reason to believe that the likelihood of these two QBs are more alike than not. 
 

So there's that. 

And to my knowledge, no one, in any sport anywhere, includes playoff numbers when making comparisons between players. 

Finally, there's this:
 

SEASON TEAM G ATT COMP YDS INT TDS SACKED RATING
2010-11 Eastern Illinois 8 211 124 1639 13 14 18 133.6
2011-12 Eastern Illinois 11 349 217 2644 14 20 28 136.7
2012-13 Eastern Illinois 12 540 331 3823 15 31 29 134.2
2013-14 Eastern Illinois 12 492 320 4489 8 48 15 170.6
TOTAL   43 1592 992 12595 50 113 90 145.9

 

and this:
 

Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
Career Alabama         686 1026 66.9 9019 8.8 9.6 77 15 162.5
*2010 Alabama SEC FR QB 13 30 48 62.5 389 8.1 9.4 3 0 151.2
*2011 Alabama SEC SO QB 13 219 328 66.8 2634 8.0 8.3 16 5 147.3
*2012 Alabama SEC JR QB 14 211 314 67.2 2933 9.3 10.8 30 3 175.3
*2013 Alabama SEC SR QB 13 226 336 67.3 3063 9.1 9.8 28 7 167.2


Do you think there is a whole bunch to differentiate between the two - other than Jimmy threw the ball more? I think those are pretty good sized numbers.

As I say, you are right. But I think my point stands.
Cheers,
A

I guess I'd add that McCarron - who I don't dislike! - played on an offense filled with 5-star recruits. My guess is that Garrapolo did more with less. He was actually drafted a lot higher than McCarron, so there is that. To my eye, he also just looks like a better qb than McCarron. But McCarron will have his shot, and maybe he'll excel. His problem is that he'll be throwing to what is currently a rock-bottom receiver corps.

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2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Unfortunately, we don’t have any starts until the Bills.

So, can we say he already has a leg up?

 

;)

1 hour ago, BadtasteinQBs said:

Go watch that Steelers playoff game. It is like watching Trent Edwards after the concussion. It's bad stuff. 

16 4th QTR points losing by 2.   

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   On 3/17/2018 at 10:52 AM, ShadyBillsFan said: 

Which is what one might expect from a young guy.  

 

I thought I read it somewhere that AJ is  2-1 as a starter?  Is that correct?  

 

That is correct, he should have led them to a playoff victory if not for Pacman and Burfict losing their minds. 

This was in reference to tbe Cinci Steelers playoff game. 

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On 3/18/2018 at 6:23 PM, NewDayBills said:

I'm pulling for McCarron, I don't care if we trade up to #1, he should be the starter until he does something to lose the job.

 

Redshirt the rookie, pray that a year from now we have 2 good QBs, trade McCarron for multiple draft picks.

 

Redshirt or turk P5T5RMAN.

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6 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

I am okay with this strategy.  I am more inclined to make a small trade up in the seven to ten range if it will ensure getting a qb we are particularly interested in.

 

I agree with this also...if Baker is there in that range I would LOVE a trade up to get him.  But if they do trade up for him or any of the other QB's, I hope its in that range for less.  We dont need to get into the top 5.

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3 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

I guess I'd add that McCarron - who I don't dislike! - played on an offense filled with 5-star recruits. My guess is that Garrapolo did more with less. He was actually drafted a lot higher than McCarron, so there is that. To my eye, he also just looks like a better qb than McCarron. But McCarron will have his shot, and maybe he'll excel. His problem is that he'll be throwing to what is currently a rock-bottom receiver corps.

 

McCarron played against far superior competition.

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On 3/18/2018 at 6:00 PM, Inigo Montoya said:

He was in Saban’s pro-style offense.  He played well in big games, won two national championships.  Is used to taking snaps under center.  Has a 66.9% accuracy percentage which is better than every other QB prospect in this year’s draft besides Mayfield.  He has now had a couple of years to sit behind Andy Dalton, a solid NFL QB, and acclimate to the NFL, and has looked good in spot duty when Dalton was out.

 

I think going up to pick 2 is going to take all of our draft capital.  I’d rather give McCarron an honest chance to be our QB.  Surround him with talent from this year’s draft and let’s see what the kid can do.

 

Accuracy percentages 2017

Mayfield. 70.1%

Rosen      62.6%

Darnold   63.1%

Allen        56.3%

Jackson  59.1%

 

McCarron career 66.9%

I couldn't agree more unless Mayfield is sitting there at 12, your list puts McCarron exactly where i put him, just behind Mayfield.  If we can get Mayfield at 12 and pass I will be bent, unless we grab Vita, providing he slips that far. 

 

Cheers to all

 

Edited by Billsfanatixs
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He is going to get an honest chance. Bills have assets and are in position to be able to draft a QB high, and you dont get that opportunity every year. Can't pass on the chance because you want to hope McCarron is good...

 

On 3/18/2018 at 6:00 PM, Inigo Montoya said:

He was in Saban’s pro-style offense.  He played well in big games, won two national championships.  Is used to taking snaps under center.  Has a 66.9% accuracy percentage which is better than every other QB prospect in this year’s draft besides Mayfield.  He has now had a couple of years to sit behind Andy Dalton, a solid NFL QB, and acclimate to the NFL, and has looked good in spot duty when Dalton was out.

 

I think going up to pick 2 is going to take all of our draft capital.  I’d rather give McCarron an honest chance to be our QB.  Surround him with talent from this year’s draft and let’s see what the kid can do.

 

Accuracy percentages 2017

Mayfield. 70.1%

Rosen      62.6%

Darnold   63.1%

Allen        56.3%

Jackson  59.1%

 

McCarron career 66.9%

Funny...thats the same completion percentage as EJ Manuel had at Florida State...how did that work out?

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On 3/19/2018 at 10:50 PM, matter2003 said:

He is going to get an honest chance. Bills have assets and are in position to be able to draft a QB high, and you dont get that opportunity every year. Can't pass on the chance because you want to hope McCarron is good...

 

Funny...thats the same completion percentage as EJ Manuel had at Florida State...how did that work out?

 

Hey Matter,

 

I am all for them drafting a QB in this draft, I just hope they don't sell the farm to move up into the top 5 of the draft.  I think the Jet's trade up has made it too expensive to do so. There is a chance one of the "elite" guys drops, but even if they don't I would be happy to grab Rudolph with a later pick.  Use those other picks to put players around who ever the QB is so they have a fair chance to have success.  I would have no problem going into camp with McCarron, Rudolph, and Peterman competing for the starting job.

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Because he’s a backup. 

 

We gave Trent Edwards 3 years. 

 

We gave Ryan Fitzpatrick 3 years. 

 

We gave Orton a year and wanted him back for Year 2. 

 

We gave Tyrod Taylor 3 years. 

 

That’s 10 of the last 11 years trying to make up backups the “Franchise QB”. 

 

That’s why. 

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