Beane & Co. too Conservative in their Trade Offers? (Opinion)

[BigDingus]

Not that we need yet another thread discussing how the Jets potentially "screwed" us, but I wanted to go into the draft point value of the trade & what the Bills could've (or should've) offered, and what was actually thought to be needed in the first place to trade with the Colts.

According to the NFL Draft Value Chart (Walter Football - http://walterfootball.com/draftchart.php ), the Colts #3 overall pick was worth 2,200 points.

The Jets traded them:

#6 (1st Rd) = 1,600 points

#37 (2nd Rd) = 530 points

#49 (2nd Rd) = 410 points 

Undisclosed 2nd next year (between 270-580)

 

Total: 2,540 points (confirmed)

We were projected to have to trade both our 1st rounders, and a combination of either of our 2nd & 3rd round picks.

For example, we could've traded:

#12 (1st Rd) = 1,200 points

#22 (1st Rd) = 780 points

#56 (Our later 2nd Rd pick) = 340 points

#65 (3rd Rd) = 265

 

Total: 2,585 points

That would give us a 1st round pick (#3 overall), our better 2nd round pick (#53), a 3rd round pick (#96), and a 4th, 5th & 6th round pick remaining. In other words, we'd still have a full regular lineup of draft picks, 1 in each round with the exception of the 7th. 

To have a full lineup of draft picks AND have your choice of QB's, at least 1 of which the Bills Management clearly wants, is a great situation to be in regardless of "but we COULD do ____ with more picks!" Sure, we "could" do some other things, but 99% of the time teams are happy going into a draft with a full lineup of picks and not short from dumb trades (see: 2015 Bills draft where we had 0 picks until #50 overall, then only had a 3rd, a 5th, two 6th's & a 7th). Edit: I forgot to add the Bills obviously could offer picks/players/etc. that could compensate for the Jets' 2019 pick that there's no way to evaluate yet. It's done quite often in trades for picks anyway, so freeing up a mid round pick or player isn't some absurd price.

So what then was Beane offering? My guess is he was offering both the 1st rounders, and the 3rd acquired from the Browns (2,245 points), and wouldn't budge on anything else. Hell, maybe he was feeling he was on a hot streak, wheeling & dealing with everything going his way and tried to get over on them in terms of point value....offering both 1sts & a 4th or something. Either way, it certainly has thrown a wrench in Beane's plans, because regardless of what anyone WANTS us to do, it's clear the Front Office was setting themselves up to trade into the top 4, and now another QB hungry team has placed themselves ahead of us.
 

Edited March 18, 2018 by BigDingus

[BillsFan4]

You forgot to add in the Jets 2nd round pick next year.

[BigDingus]

Also, before anyone wants to claim "it's ok, we can fill other holes!" - we HAVE the draft capital we do for a reason...to grab a QB in THIS draft.

That was clear since last year, and even more obvious with recent trades & acquisitions. And looking at this trade, it's easy to see we also could've swung a deal that resulted in us keeping a pick in every single round AND getting our guy. Now, a division rival who didn't have as many resources as we do, manages to swing a trade that has them potentially snagging a guy the Bills were targeting.

Even worse, it now means the only way to ensure that doesn't happen is to trade even higher with Giants, costing far more resources than it would have otherwise. 

Yes, we "can" uses these picks now to fill other holes, but that wasn't Plan A for Bills brass. And they likely won't have this kind of opportunity again, with this many picks to use next year to go after a QB....so we'd have to hope we tank to get another shot like this (while also hoping 2019's QB class is better than this one).

[RochesterRob]

2 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

Not that we need yet another thread discussing how the Jets potentially "screwed" us, but I wanted to go into the draft point value of the trade & what the Bills could've (or should've) offered, and what was actually thought to be needed in the first place to trade with the Colts.

According to the NFL Draft Value Chart (Walter Football - http://walterfootball.com/draftchart.php ), the Colts #3 overall pick was worth 2,200 points.

The Jets traded them:

#6 (1st Rd) = 1,600 points

#37 (2nd Rd) = 530 points

#49 (2nd Rd) = 410 points 

 

Total: 2,540 points

We were projected to have to trade both our 1st rounders, and a combination of either of our 2nd & 3rd round picks.

For example, we could've traded:

#12 (1st Rd) = 1,200 points

#22 (1st Rd) = 780 points

#56 (Our later 2nd Rd pick) = 340 points

#65 (3rd Rd) = 265

 

Total: 2,585 points

That would give us a 1st round pick (#3 overall), our better 2nd round pick (#53), a 3rd round pick (#96), and a 4th, 5th & 6th round pick remaining. In other words, we'd still have a full regular lineup of draft picks, 1 in each round with the exception of the 7th. 

To have a full lineup of draft picks AND have your choice of QB's, at least 1 of which the Bills Management clearly wants, is a great situation to be in regardless of "but we COULD do ____ with more picks!" Sure, we "could" do some other things, but 99% of the time teams are happy going into a draft with a full lineup of picks and not short from dumb trades (see: 2015 Bills draft where we had 0 picks until #50 overall, then only had a 3rd, a 5th, two 6th's & a 7th).

So what then was Beane offering? My guess is he was offering both the 1st rounders, and the 3rd acquired from the Browns (2,245 points), and wouldn't budge on anything else. Hell, maybe he was feeling he was on a hot streak, wheeling & dealing with everything going his way and tried to get over on them in terms of point value....offering both 1sts & a 4th or something. Either way, it certainly has thrown a wrench in Beane's plans, because regardless of what anyone WANTS us to do, it's clear the Front Office was setting themselves up to trade into the top 4, and now another QB hungry team has placed themselves ahead of us.
 

  The fact of the matter is that everybody here and the pundits to boot have no idea as to what Beane did or did not do.  Everything is 100 percent speculation from what I have see.  If the top of the draft is considered rich with prospects so put the charts away as the only thing that matters is top bid.

[BigDingus]

3 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said:

You forgot to add in the Jets 2nd round pick next year.

 

Thanks for the spot, had it written down next to me but forgot to add it. Will edit 

[BillsFan4]

I figure we'd have to offer something like both 1sts, both 2nds and our lower 3rd this year to match the Jets offer.

 

Then add in the Colts going from 3 to 12, instead of 3 to 6, and you're probably going to have to sweeten the pot a little more.

 

And that is only to guarantee yourself the 3rd QB off the board. It's not a guarantee of getting one of the top 2 QBs. I have a hard time believeing the 3rd QB off the board this year is worth all that. 

 

[John from Riverside]

4 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

Also, before anyone wants to claim "it's ok, we can fill other holes!" - we HAVE the draft capital we do for a reason...to grab a QB in THIS draft.

That was clear since last year, and even more obvious with recent trades & acquisitions. And looking at this trade, it's easy to see we also could've swung a deal that resulted in us keeping a pick in every single round AND getting our guy. Now, a division rival who didn't have as many resources as we do, manages to swing a trade that has them potentially snagging a guy the Bills were targeting.

Even worse, it now means the only way to ensure that doesn't happen is to trade even higher with Giants, costing far more resources than it would have otherwise. 

Yes, we "can" uses these picks now to fill other holes, but that wasn't Plan A for Bills brass. And they likely won't have this kind of opportunity again, with this many picks to use next year to go after a QB....so we'd have to hope we tank to get another shot like this (while also hoping 2019's QB class is better than this one).

Actually I dont know what this is true

 

First off....there is a report that the colts didnt want to drop out of the top 10.....we were going to need to trade up twice to get where we needed to be....21 is veeery far away from say....7

 

Second....if we do trade with the giants...the compensation may end up being what probably always going to be....2 firsts this year and a 1st next year.

Edited March 18, 2018 by John from Riverside

[RochesterRob]

2 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

Also, before anyone wants to claim "it's ok, we can fill other holes!" - we HAVE the draft capital we do for a reason...to grab a QB in THIS draft.

That was clear since last year, and even more obvious with recent trades & acquisitions. And looking at this trade, it's easy to see we also could've swung a deal that resulted in us keeping a pick in every single round AND getting our guy. Now, a division rival who didn't have as many resources as we do, manages to swing a trade that has them potentially snagging a guy the Bills were targeting.

Even worse, it now means the only way to ensure that doesn't happen is to trade even higher with Giants, costing far more resources than it would have otherwise. 

Yes, we "can" uses these picks now to fill other holes, but that wasn't Plan A for Bills brass. And they likely won't have this kind of opportunity again, with this many picks to use next year to go after a QB....so we'd have to hope we tank to get another shot like this (while also hoping 2019's QB class is better than this one).

  I trust Beane to go to Plan B if necessary if he thinks that the long term results will be better.  People need to accept this.

[BigDingus]

AND, keep in mind, Prior to this trade, it was likely only 1 QB would be taken in the top 3, meaning we could grab the #4 slot & comfortably get "our guy." Cleveland also knew this. They didn't HAVE to take a QB #1 overall, and could also rest on their laurels knowing they could select at #4 a QB. They could grab a RB #1, the Giants grab not a QB at #2, the Colts grab not a QB at #3 & then at #4, the Browns get their pick of the litter. 

Now this forces Cleveland's hand if they really have their hearts set on 1 particular guy. They don't want the Jets to draft him, so they're forced to grab a guy at #1, the Jet's get their guy at #3, and the Bills either get stuck with the 3rd guy left at #4, or are forced to trade away a King's Ransom to trade with the Giants & get ahead of the Jets.... None of this looks good.

Edited March 18, 2018 by BigDingus

[hondo in seattle]

You have to know the Bills board and the boards of other teams to evaluate how conservative the Bills are being.

 

Maybe the Bills believe their guy will fall to #12.  Maybe they're trying to get up to 6 or 7 because that's where their guy's going.   Maybe they have reason to believe the Jets board is very different than theirs so they don't care what NYJ is doing.  

 

The Jets just paid a bucket load just to move up 3 spots.  They're clearly eyeing someone specific.  Let's hope they've set their target on the wrong QB.  

[Bills4life1924]

Let's just say bills did trade with Colts to #3. Don't you think jets would swing a trade with the giants for #2. Giants would prob do it bc at pick #6 they would prob be able to get Nelson at that spot. If giants stay put they will go barkley/nelson. But if jets traded with them they could pick Nelson and pickup a ton of extra picks. 

[Buffalo Boy]

14 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Actually I dont know what this is true

 

First off....there is a report that the colts didnt want to drop out of the top 10.....we were going to need to trade up twice to get where we needed to be....21 is veeery far away from say....7

 

Second....if we do trade with the giants...the compensation may end up being what probably always going to be....2 firsts this year and a 1st next year.

If we are trading three firsts, go for broke and do the deal with Cleveland for #1.

If we get a 10 + year starting QB , we will forget the asking price quickly.

[Boatdrinks]

It looks by all accounts that what was needed was a top ten pick that the Bills do not have to put them over the Jets offer. All the draft points charts in the world mean nothing if a GM trying to win and keep his job doesn't want to move to pick # 12. The Bills only hope in obtaining the Colts pick at 3 was if another team ahead of them didn't make an offer. They did. Sucks, but that's what happened. Time for plan B 

Edited March 18, 2018 by Boatdrinks

[Doc]

Without next year's draft pick, the Jets gave up 2,540 points for a pick worth 2,200.  That's a 340 point (56th overall pick) premium.  Add another ~500 points (because they'll suck again next year) and the Jets gave up the equivalent of a later-1st rounder.  That's crazy.

[Boatdrinks]

2 minutes ago, Bills4life1924 said:

Let's just say bills did trade with Colts to #3. Don't you think jets would swing a trade with the giants for #2. Giants would prob do it bc at pick #6 they would prob be able to get Nelson at that spot. If giants stay put they will go barkley/nelson. But if jets traded with them they could pick Nelson and pickup a ton of extra picks. 

That makes sense. However its been tweeted by former NFL exec Greg Gabriel that the NYG do not do trades with the Jets. Might have something to do with it. 

[Bills4life1924]

3 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

That makes sense. However its been tweeted by former NFL exec Greg Gabriel that the NYG do not do trades with the Jets. Might have something to do with it. 

I could see this being true. Hoping for the best, and no matter what happens I'll support the rookies. Atleast we finally seem to have a great HC/GM duo!

[Buffalo716]

Edited March 18, 2018 by Buffalo716

[Green Lightning]

46 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  The fact of the matter is that everybody here and the pundits to boot have no idea as to what Beane did or did not do.  Everything is 100 percent speculation from what I have see.  If the top of the draft is considered rich with prospects so put the charts away as the only thing that matters is top bid.

Yup. Do or not do, there is no try.

[Domdab99]

You guys realize in order to move up, the Bills have to have a willing trade partner, right?

 

 

[klos63]

2 minutes ago, Domdab99 said:

You guys realize in order to move up, the Bills have to have a willing trade partner, right?

 

 

I'm not sure they understand that.

54 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

 

Thanks for the spot, had it written down next to me but forgot to add it. Will edit 

which kills the credibility of your initial point regarding point value of picks. Which kills the credibility of your thread. sorry

[Big Turk]

Maybe they are just smart enough to realize that you don't need to get to the top 3 to get a QB and they might be able to get he guy they want where they are at now or by moving to 7 or 8.  Let's stop acting like whoever someone takes at 1,2 or 3 is guaranteed tobe a franchise QB...in fact odds are against them.

[Rico]

Doesn’t matter because I never wanted #3, it’s all about #2. Keep your eyes on the prize.

[Sweats]

Here’s a wild concept.......maybe we’re just planning on staying at 12.

 

Crazy, I know.

[BillsFan4]

1 hour ago, BigDingus said:

AND, keep in mind, Prior to this trade, it was likely only 1 QB would be taken in the top 3, meaning we could grab the #4 slot & comfortably get "our guy." Cleveland also knew this. They didn't HAVE to take a QB #1 overall, and could also rest on their laurels knowing they could select at #4 a QB. They could grab a RB #1, the Giants grab not a QB at #2, the Colts grab not a QB at #3 & then at #4, the Browns get their pick of the litter. 

Now this forces Cleveland's hand if they really have their hearts set on 1 particular guy. They don't want the Jets to draft him, so they're forced to grab a guy at #1, the Jet's get their guy at #3, and the Bills either get stuck with the 3rd guy left at #4, or are forced to trade away a King's Ransom to trade with the Giants & get ahead of the Jets.... None of this looks good.

 

I don't see this as true. 

 

I think Cleveland was likely taking a QB at 1 all along. Jimmy Haslam gave John Dorsey the mandate to find a franchise QB no matter what, ans he said this to the media. He said it was Dorsey's #1 priority. 

 

And even in your scenario where the Browns pass on a QB at one - if the Bills had traded to 3 instead of the Jets, that would still force Cleveland's hand the exact same way the Jets trade did. 

Worse yet, it may have forced another team's hand in a trade to #2, leaving the Bills with the 3rd QB off the board after giving up a giant haul of picks. 

 

The #3 pick was always in play. The Colts had planned on trading down all offseason. If it wasn't the Jets, it would have been someone else. 

 

Our best chance at our QB has always been a trade to the #2 pick. 

 

The way I feel, only the top 2 QBs this year are worth trading a draft's worth of picks for. I'd rather give up more and guarantee that we get one of those 2 QBs than to give up most of our draft capital to trade to 3 and then miss out on both of those top QBs. 

 

 

 

 

Herea another scenario - a Cleveland takes Darnold at 1. Giants take Barkley at 2. Jets take Allen at 3, leaving Rosen at 4. We trade up with Cleveland and save ourselves some picks. 

Or our target is Mayfield, he slips past 5 and we trade with a team around 6-9 and save even more.

 

There are still lots of potential scenarios that could play out. It's not all doom and gloom... 

 

 

Edited March 18, 2018 by BillsFan4

[Big Turk]

8 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said:

 

I don't see this as true. 

 

I think Cleveland was likely taking a QB at 1 all along. Jimmy Haslam gave John Dorsey the mandate to find a franchise QB no matter what, ans he said this to the media. He said it was Dorsey's #1 priority. 

 

And even in your scenario where the Browns pass on a QB at one - if the Bills had traded to 3 instead of the Jets, that would still force Cleveland's hand the exact same way the Jets trade did. 

Worse yet, it may have forced another team's hand in a trade to #2, leaving the Bills with the 3rd QB off the board after giving up a giant haul of picks. 

 

The #3 pick was always in play. The Colts had planned on trading down all offseason. If it wasn't the Jets, it would have been someone else. 

 

Our best chance at our QB has always been a trade to the #2 pick. 

 

The way I feel, only the top 2 QBs this year are worth trading a draft's worth of picks for. I'd rather give up more and guarantee that we get one of those 2 QBs than to give up most of our draft capital to trade to 3 and then miss out on both of those top QBs. 

 

 

 

 

Herea another scenario - a Cleveland takes Darnold at 1. Giants take Barkley at 2. Jets take Allen at 3, leaving Rosen at 4. We trade up with Cleveland and save ourselves some picks. 

Or our target is Mayfield, he slips past 5 and we trade with a team around 6-9 and save even more.

 

There are still lots of potential scenarios that could play out. It's not all doom and gloom... 

 

 

 

or the target is Allen and you just take him at 12

[BillsFan4]

16 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

Maybe they are just smart enough to realize that you don't need to get to the top 3 to get a QB and they might be able to get he guy they want where they are at now or by moving to 7 or 8.  Let's stop acting like whoever someone takes at 1,2 or 3 is guaranteed tobe a franchise QB...in fact odds are against them.

Exactly. People are acting like just because we didn't trade to #3 the Bills have no chance of finding a franchise QB anymore. It's ridiculous. 

 

We could very well take a QB at 12 or 22 or even 53/56/65 and he could turn out to be better than whatever QB is taken at 3. 

 

We have no idea until it all plays out in a few years. 

 

Everyone seems to think any one of the top 3 QBs this year are can't miss. I don't see it that way. 

 

I see the top 2 (Darnold/Rosen) as the 2 most sure bets, and all the rest as a crap shoot. Even Darnold and Rosen are a crap shoot. There isn't any can't miss QBs this year. There are some very enticing prospects, but the real strength of this QB draft is in its depth.

 

I don't think the difference between Mayfield/Allen and Rudolph/Jackson/White/Lauletta etc is FOUR top 49 picks... (and it would have actually cost the Bills even more than what the Jets gave up - likely 2 1sts, 2 2nds and a 3rd)

2 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

or the target is Allen and you just take him at 12

Very well could be.

 

I had been really hoping for Rosen/Darnold. But Id take a shot on Allen at 12. 

 

Hes definitely boom or bust, but man if he hits you are set! His ceiling is sky high IMO. 

 

Im pretty open to whatever QB we draft at this point. I'll trust Beane and co., who are paid big bucks to do this for a living, over my own amateur tv and YouTube scouting. 

[bobobonators]

1 hour ago, Doc said:

Without next year's draft pick, the Jets gave up 2,540 points for a pick worth 2,200.  That's a 340 point (56th overall pick) premium.  Add another ~500 points (because they'll suck again next year) and the Jets gave up the equivalent of a later-1st rounder.  That's crazy.

True. But on the other hand if they land their QB for the next 15yrs, it wasnt crazy at all. 

[peterpan]

We didn't go to #3 because there are not 3 QBs worth taking.   Jets could be SOL

[JaCrispy]

1 hour ago, Doc said:

Without next year's draft pick, the Jets gave up 2,540 points for a pick worth 2,200.  That's a 340 point (56th overall pick) premium.  Add another ~500 points (because they'll suck again next year) and the Jets gave up the equivalent of a later-1st rounder.  That's crazy.

I don’t think it’s crazy at all...I think both sides won... the jets are happy that they didn’t have give up a first next year and the colts are happy because they got extra picks for basically nothing- win/win.

[Mij yllek]

What happens to the Jet's plan if Denver trades up from #5 to #2 with the Giants?

[BillsVet]

So many fans worrying about what they can't control...more than 5 weeks before the draft. Step away from your keyboard.

 

Many of the same people who proudly declared to "trust the process."  

 

 

[BillsFan4]

Maybe the better question is -

 

Were the Jets too reckless in trading up right now? 

 

They gave up a whole lot to only guarantee themselves the 3rd QB off the board.

 

They haven't even attended all the QBs pro days yet, or had ANY of the QBs in for a visit and private workout. They haven't had a chance yet to sit down with these QBs and talk extensively. As far as I know, they've only met with each for 15 mins at the combine. 

 

From the sounds of it (MMQB article), the Jets decided to go all in on this QB draft last year. MacCagnan sold Woody Johnson on doing whatever it took to get 1 of the top 4 QBs this year. They are supposedly comfortable with any of the top 4 (which is reckless in itself IMO). That makes me think they did try and tank this season like many suspected. IMO That also sounds like the GM's job probably depends on getting a top QB from this draft. 

 

If thats the case, it's not usually a good thing to try and go toe to toe with a guy recklessly doing whatever it takes to get a top 4 QB this year because his job may depend on it. 

Or at best, it sounds like a GM who is perfectly comfortable just throwing a dart at 1 of 4 random QBs and hoping he hits. 

 

 

Id rather have a more calculating GM who is going to really think out his moves and make sure he's 100% comfortable with trading the farm for a specific QB. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, BigDingus said:

or are forced to trade away a King's Ransom to trade with the Giants & get ahead of the Jets.... None of this looks good.

 

It was going to cost a team a King's Ransom to get to two regardless of this recent trade. That was always the case. IF the Giants don't take a QB themselves they will likely shake down the Jets for a couple more draft picks just to move one spot up. 

 

Colts did the right thing. They are guaranteed their guy still at six and picked up three second round picks. McBeane could have offered 3000 points in draft picks and it still wouldn't have been enough because of the simple fact that the Colts would be at 12 and they would miss out on their target.

[Heitz]

1 hour ago, Domdab99 said:

You guys realize in order to move up, the Bills have to have a willing trade partner, right?

 

 

Too simple!  Needs 75% more tinfoil hat therom.

[xRUSHx]

I'm disappointed, I expected this staff to give us fans the franchise worthy QB we have been waiting for since Kelly. Regardless of cost it was going to happen, we were all so sure. Everything was in the cards, a HC that was just with Cam a franchise worthy QB, a boat load of picks, a move up to 12, the trading of Tyrod, I was ok with waiting till this draft because of our chances on landing one of the top 3, sadly it looks like another wide right. Almost got it, not quick enough.

[Heitz]

2 minutes ago, xRUSHx said:

I'm disappointed, I expected this staff to give us fans the franchise worthy QB we have been waiting for since Kelly. Regardless of cost it was going to happen, we were all so sure. Everything was in the cards, a HC that was just with Cam a franchise worthy QB, a boat load of picks, a move up to 12, the trading of Tyrod, I was ok with waiting till this draft because of our chances on landing one of the top 3, sadly it looks like another wide right. Almost got it, not quick enough.

 

And how do you know they’re not going to?  At least let it play out before crying over your spilled almond milk...

[xRUSHx]

Just now, Heitz said:

 

And how do you know they’re not going to?  At least let it play out before crying over your spilled almond milk...

I dont but it sure looks like the same old Bills waiting for one to fall from the sky. We as fans have been let down the exact same way every draft, they wait for the golden arm to fall to them and boom always got to wait till next year's draft, wash repeat. Hey look another backup QB from some other team leading the way, just a new staff doing the exact same thing, build around some other teams backup. If didn't happen all the time I guess I wouldn't feel this way. 

[Reed83HOF]

2 minutes ago, xRUSHx said:

I dont but it sure looks like the same old Bills waiting for one to fall from the sky. We as fans have been let down the exact same way every draft, they wait for the golden arm to fall to them and boom always got to wait till next year's draft, wash repeat. Hey look another backup QB from some other team leading the way, just a new staff doing the exact same thing, build around some other teams backup. If didn't happen all the time I guess I wouldn't feel this way. 

[Heitz]

5 minutes ago, xRUSHx said:

I dont but it sure looks like the same old Bills waiting for one to fall from the sky. We as fans have been let down the exact same way every draft, they wait for the golden arm to fall to them and boom always got to wait till next year's draft, wash repeat. Hey look another backup QB from some other team leading the way, just a new staff doing the exact same thing, build around some other teams backup. If didn't happen all the time I guess I wouldn't feel this way. 

Got it, BBBFS.  Makes sense now...

[xRUSHx]

Just now, Heitz said:

Got it, BBBFS.  Makes sense now...

BBBFS?