PFF Identifies Zay Jones as a Rookie Who Can Bounce Back in 2018

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

Just now, ShadyBillsFan said:

What was the % of deep routes verses quick slants or 5 to 10 yard outs?  

 

Should they have played more to his strengths?   I do recall a game or 2 where he was rock solid and caught just about everything thrown at him.  (yes, there were 2 or 3 of those games) 

 

 

 

...wouldn't discount the effects of playing with a torn labrum all year and now having had surgery for it..........

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

52 minutes ago, PolishDave said:

PLEASE GOD don't let this devolve into another friggin Tyrod thread.

Man Hands and Squeezes!!! 

Just now, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...wouldn't discount the effects of playing with a torn labrum all year and now having had surgery for it..........

agreed 

[DCOrange]

7 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

What was the % of deep routes verses quick slants or 5 to 10 yard outs?  

 

Should they have played more to his strengths?   I do recall a game or 2 where he was rock solid and caught just about everything thrown at him.  (yes, there were 2 or 3 of those games) 

 

People keep saying play to TT's strengths ...  so it should be the same so  

Target Depths for respective Bills WRs:

Zay: 13.8 yards

Benjamin: 11.9 yards

Matthews: 6.8 yards

Deonte: 15.4 yards

 

Some other guys roughly around the same average target depth as Zay are:

AJ Green

Tyrell Williams

Torrey Smith

Deandre Hopkins

Mike Wallace

 

I don't have the average target depth for Zay at ECU, but over 64% of his routes were flats, screens, drags, and slants, which are all less than 5 yards, so his average target depth was probably very low in college.

[MrEpsYtown]

I think he will be better. I still wish we would have drafted Cooper Kupp, who is a great fit for what I think Daboll is going to try to do. 

[SoTier]

9 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

What was the % of deep routes verses quick slants or 5 to 10 yard outs?  

 

Should they have played more to his strengths?   I do recall a game or 2 where he was rock solid and caught just about everything thrown at him.  (yes, there were 2 or 3 of those games) 

 

People keep saying play to TT's strengths ...  so it should be the same so  

 

Dennison seemed determined to force square pegs into round holes with the entire offense.  He forced the OL into a blocking scheme that didn't seem to fit their talents from the get-go; the OL could never consistently do a decent job of either run or pass blocking all year.  Compare the offense he pushed on Taylor to what the Houston OC did when DeShon Watson got the call (created and implemented plays that fit Watson's skill set).  Even in TC, it was obvious that the OL and the QB were struggling with Dennison's system.

 

Letting Goodwin and Woods go and trading Watkins while replacing them with the WRs they did probably doomed Jones' rookie campaign, too.  I will give Dennison a pass on not using Jones correctly (ie, slot receiver) because I don't think he had that much input into the total dismantling of the WR corps.  IMO, on any team with a NFL caliber WR corps, Jones wouldn't have been a starter except for injury or late in the season.  It was too much pressure to put on a rookie from a smaller program, especially when he was forced to play a position that he really didn't "fit".

 

Hopefully, the Bills put Jones in a better position to succeed this season, and that he takes advantage of his second chance.

[nedboy7]

1 hour ago, Lfod said:

I know right it's Peterman and Dennisons fault Tyrod got benched and then put up 3 points in the playoffs huehuehue.

 

Playoffs. Hue hehehhe. 

[NickelCity]

I completely expect Zay to bounce back. I see flashes of real talent, a history of high quality play, and a desire to do well. 

[Herb62]

Two words Cooper Cup

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

I hold out some hope his drops are mental. 

 

Definitely has the athleticism and physical measurables to be a very good WR...  if he puts in the jerry rice or Andre Reed offseason, he can rebound 

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

2 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Dude Zay sucked. He was awful and that is independent of Tyrod.

 

Need to find another receiver opposite Benjamin. 

 

You know who else dropped a **** ton of passes his rookie season? Jerry Rice, he was terrible to the point he was being booed by fans. It usually takes WR 3 seasons to finally get his game up to speed especially a small school product. A good example, Eric Moulds had 20 rec,  279 yards, 2 TD in his rookie season, 29 rec 294 yards and 0 TD in year 2 , 67 rec, 1,368 and 9 TD year 3.

[Kirby Jackson]

34 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

Target Depths for respective Bills WRs:

Zay: 13.8 yards

Benjamin: 11.9 yards

Matthews: 6.8 yards

Deonte: 15.4 yards

 

Some other guys roughly around the same average target depth as Zay are:

AJ Green

Tyrell Williams

Torrey Smith

Deandre Hopkins

Mike Wallace

 

I don't have the average target depth for Zay at ECU, but over 64% of his routes were flats, screens, drags, and slants, which are all less than 5 yards, so his average target depth was probably very low in college.

Great stuff!!

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

Not really.

 

Saying he was awful isn't an exaggeration. He was the worst starting WR in the league. 

 

Im hopefully he can become a solid slot guy. But they need to add at least one and probably two solid receivers in FA/draft.

 

He was indeed awful.

 

The "catchable drops" isn't even half of the story...........he couldn't get open and couldn't catch a contested pass.

 

Later in the season Tyrod was very in-tune with where Jones was going to be and was putting the ball in great position where only he could catch it and DB's were still in his pocket and easily able to defense the throws.   

 

The handling of the WR situation was incredibly bad by McD and Co..     How did they think this guy was going to be able to handle an outside receiver position?    They were like 0 for the season on vertical throws to him. 

[BillsFan130]

18 minutes ago, BuffaloBillsGospel said:

 

You know who else dropped a **** ton of passes his rookie season? Jerry Rice, he was terrible to the point he was being booed by fans. It usually takes WR 3 seasons to finally get his game up to speed especially a small school product. A good example, Eric Moulds had 20 rec,  279 yards, 2 TD in his rookie season, 29 rec 294 yards and 0 TD in year 2 , 67 rec, 1,368 and 9 TD year 3.

What he was saying is correct .

 

He had an awful year.

 

Does that mean he’s a bust and it’s time to write him off? No.

 

But you should not go into the season with him as the number 2 receiver

[Kirby Jackson]

49 minutes ago, billsfan11 said:

What he was saying is correct .

 

He had an awful year.

 

Does that mean he’s a bust and it’s time to write him off? No.

 

But you should not go into the season with him as the number 2 receiver

This is pretty much my exact stance.

[White Linen]

3 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Dude Zay sucked. He was awful and that is independent of Tyrod.

 

Need to find another receiver opposite Benjamin. 

 

Zay did stink but Tyrod didn't help.  There were times when Zay was blatantly open and Tyrod doesn't throw the ball.  

 

You'll see a lot of times a QB will go right back to the same receiver that dropped a ball on the next play.  It's that type of stuff that Tyrod doesn't help young WR's develop.  Receivers don't grow with Tyrod - that's my point.  

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, DCOrange said:

Target Depths for respective Bills WRs:

Zay: 13.8 yards

Benjamin: 11.9 yards

Matthews: 6.8 yards

Deonte: 15.4 yards

 

Some other guys roughly around the same average target depth as Zay are:

AJ Green

Tyrell Williams

Torrey Smith

Deandre Hopkins

Mike Wallace

 

I don't have the average target depth for Zay at ECU, but over 64% of his routes were flats, screens, drags, and slants, which are all less than 5 yards, so his average target depth was probably very low in college.

 

 

What I don't like about that number is that IMO one of the things that separates high quality receivers from the hacks is that they catch the ball with the same ease downfield as they do upfield.

 

Zay had some really bad looks on those deeper throws last year............the bumbling Carolina play, the ridiculous looking hop-jump-drop on a perfectly thrown nine route by Tyrod in Atlanta......basically every deep throw he looked bad.

 

A highly skilled WR tracks and runs thru a deep ball in stride........it's a Sammy Watkins trait for sure......the "meh" types have to stop or jump because they aren't coordinated enough to track the ball and keep their stride at the same time.

 

Hopefully Zay can improve but he definitely belongs in the slot. 

[thebandit27]

7 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

What I don't like about that number is that IMO one of the things that separates high quality receivers from the hacks is that they catch the ball with the same ease downfield as they do upfield.

 

Zay had some really bad looks on those deeper throws last year............the bumbling Carolina play, the ridiculous looking hop-jump-drop on a perfectly thrown nine route by Tyrod in Atlanta......basically every deep throw he looked bad.

 

A highly skilled WR tracks and runs thru a deep ball in stride........it's a Sammy Watkins trait for sure......the "meh" types have to stop or jump because they aren't coordinated enough to track the ball and keep their stride at the same time.

 

Hopefully Zay can improve but he definitely belongs in the slot. 

 

Fun question that's not entirely germane to the topic: how many WRs have you seen track a deep ball like that kid?

[KW95 - JA17]

When you say: BOUNCE BACK, that implies that he was bouncing at one point.

 

Ill accept just BOUNCE!

[Dopey]

3 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Dude Zay sucked. He was awful and that is independent of Tyrod.

 

Need to find another receiver opposite Benjamin. 

Not saying Zay doesn't suck, but I trust our staff and our draft from last season. As for Zay's stats, take a look at a Eric Moulds' stats in his 1st two seasons in the NFL as a Bill:  

 

 

It does take a season or two for most WR's coming in and he was not a 1st rounder. I can wait one more year to see some development. Not saying we don't need another WR, but it's premature to write off Zay. IMO.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 minute ago, Dopey said:

Not saying Zay doesn't suck, but I trust our staff and our draft from last season. As for Zay's stats, take a look at a Eric Moulds' stats in his 1st two seasons in the NFL as a Bill:  

 

 

It does take a season or two for most WR's coming in and he was not a 1st rounder. I can wait one more year to see some development. Not saying we don't need another WR, but it's premature to write off Zay. IMO.

 

Dopey with an uppercut    ( I wanted to use rope-a-dope  but oh well) 

[Chicken Boo]

He'll be just fine.  Bills fans are prone to overreacting.

[BADOLBILZ]

6 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Fun question that's not entirely germane to the topic: how many WRs have you seen track a deep ball like that kid?

 

Very few.......if anyone does it BETTER in today's NFL it's Antonio Brown.....and he's just on another level than anyone right now........that's about it.

 

The spread between Watkins and Zay Jones in this regard is a chasm and the only exceptional ball Tyrod throws is the deep ball........it wasn't hard to see the offensive issues coming when they dealt Sammy.

 

   

[Augie]

4 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I said it early but Zay got the yips like a golfer gets. He just never recovered. As his mistakes compiled, the pressure grew and he just couldn’t get past it. He now has some relief for that and a semi-fresh start with a new OC.

 

The Bills certainly can’t depend on him to be their #2 receiver. He can however be a big improvement over last year. I’m pretty confident in him (I’m not sure why). 

 

I hate to admit it, but I’ve had some trouble with the yips, and it’s just the craziest darn thing! I had to change my putting grip because my brain no longer had control of my hands! 

[Kirby Jackson]

 

52 minutes ago, Dopey said:

Not saying Zay doesn't suck, but I trust our staff and our draft from last season. As for Zay's stats, take a look at a Eric Moulds' stats in his 1st two seasons in the NFL as a Bill:  

 

 

It does take a season or two for most WR's coming in and he was not a 1st rounder. I can wait one more year to see some development. Not saying we don't need another WR, but it's premature to write off Zay. IMO.

He was pick 37 (there are 32 in round 1). He wasn’t technically a 1st but there isn’t much difference between him and a late 1st. 

 

The game has changed too. What was the best season that a rookie WR had prior to Moulds? Without looking I would bet that there have been a dozen or so seasons better that the best ever at that point. Receivers come out ready now.

Edited February 16, 2018 by Kirby Jackson

[Lfod]

3 hours ago, nedboy7 said:

 

Playoffs. Hue hehehhe. 

I'm with you. I understand that. Leaning into the playoffs is a good sign of things to come and I enjoyed it. If I was being honest my hype for the game was a lot more then the actual excitement I received watching that Playoff game. Making the playoffs was more memorable then the actual game. I don't see how you could disagree. 

 

To be honest I found it to be a boring playoff game. It was a special boring playoff game but still boring. It reminded me of the game the Bills played the Panthers. A defensive game that the offense couldn't be productive. To be honest it kind of reminded me of a majority of the Bills games. Defence was strong and office sometimes showed up. I kinda had that game predicted in my head but I was wrong about the Dolphins games. Yes Bortles out played Tyrod at his own game. I 100% believe that.

 

Offense has some good games, the defense had some bad games. If I scaled it out I would say the defense stole the ball away 13% of the time the opponent faced them with the ball in thier possession. The defense in my opinion was the largest factor in my opinion. 

 

So for a moment let's forget who is to blame. Let's not point the blame. To be blunt the offense was boring in my opinion. A lot of safe play little action. The defense was excited. Defense go get the ball back. Ok do it again. Ok offence score.... Ok we will get it next time right?

 

So please believe me when I say I have hope for any player on offense. I want them to be good. Plus please forgive me if I'm skeptical about holding on to any of the offensive players besides Shady moving forward. I get a little stupid and to harsh on players sometimes but 3 points multiple times in a year just looks bad on everyone that played a role in it.

 

On Topic: Yea Zay was not a great receiver on a not great offense. Zay was bad but nothing was good. 

 

Edited February 16, 2018 by Lfod

[White Linen]

5 hours ago, Dopey said:

Not saying Zay doesn't suck, but I trust our staff and our draft from last season. As for Zay's stats, take a look at a Eric Moulds' stats in his 1st two seasons in the NFL as a Bill:  

 

 

It does take a season or two for most WR's coming in and he was not a 1st rounder. I can wait one more year to see some development. Not saying we don't need another WR, but it's premature to write off Zay. IMO.

 

He had Kelly in his last year and Todd Collins throwing to him in 96 and 97.  Then Flutie  and Rob Johnson started Moulds emergence.  He then had a down year with Van Pelt and Rob Johnson throwing to him then a huge spike with Bledsoe.  Then another down year with Bledsoe  followed by another good one.  

 

The QB matters and if you want WR's to develop you have to get rid of a player like Tyrod.  

[Kirby Jackson]

4 minutes ago, White Linen said:

 

He had Kelly in his last year and Todd Collins throwing to him in 96 and 97.  Then Flutie  and Rob Johnson started Moulds emergence.  He then had a down year with Van Pelt and Rob Johnson throwing to him then a huge spike with Bledsoe.  Then another down year with Bledsoe  followed by another good one.  

 

The QB matters and if you want WR's to develop you have to get rid of a player like Tyrod.  

Josh Gordon led the league in receiving with Campbell, Weeden and Hoyer. Hopkins had almost 1600 yards with Hoyer, Mallet, Yates and Weeden. Good receivers are good receivers, there is no reason to make excuses for Zay’s putrid play. Let’s just hope that it improves this year (I think it will). 

[BillsFan130]

6 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Josh Gordon led the league in receiving with Campbell, Weeden and Hoyer. Hopkins had almost 1600 yards with Hoyer, Mallet, Yates and Weeden. Good receivers are good receivers, there is no reason to make excuses for Zay’s putrid play. Let’s just hope that it improves this year (I think it will). 

Exactly. 

 

I remember people were saying Smith schuster is only good because of Big Ben.

 

Then On the final game of the regular season when Landry Jones started, Smith Schuster had around 150 yards that game with 2 TDS 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

So much love be for Bills rookies not put in a position to play to his strength and with an injury.  

 

[JohnC]

6 hours ago, White Linen said:

 

Zay did stink but Tyrod didn't help.  There were times when Zay was blatantly open and Tyrod doesn't throw the ball.  

 

You'll see a lot of times a QB will go right back to the same receiver that dropped a ball on the next play.  It's that type of stuff that Tyrod doesn't help young WR's develop.  Receivers don't grow with Tyrod - that's my point.  

I'm not a Tyrod advocate. But let's be fair here. Zay's failure was his failure. He had a lot of drops and more problematic he rarely got separation. He being blanketed was on him, not the qb. I'm certainly not giving up on him. His production in college was too prolific to write him off. I'm hoping that he is the type of player who after being acclimated to the pro game will make a quantum leap next year. 

Edited February 17, 2018 by JohnC

[Watkins101]

9 hours ago, DCOrange said:

A major issue is that Zay made his living at ECU essentially on screens, digs, and quick slants; basically anything underneath.

 

In Buffalo, he was used as the team's deep threat, which he has always struggled with dating back to ECU. It's no wonder that he struggled as a rookie; Buffalo played him to his weaknesses instead of using his strengths.

 

This line from that PFF article is pretty incredible though:

 

 

The real question is whether or not it counts the Carolina pass as catchable or not.

[Kirby Jackson]

12 minutes ago, billsfan11 said:

Exactly. 

 

I remember people were saying Smith schuster is only good because of Big Ben.

 

Then On the final game of the regular season when Landry Jones started, Smith Schuster had around 150 yards that game with 2 TDS 

If anyone watched Zay Jones play this year and said, “he’s fine it is the QB’s fault” they don’t know what the hell they are watching. He was awful and they stopped throwing him the ball. He got 6 targets over the last 4 games. https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#catch-percentage

 

I am a fan of Zay and loved the pick. I wanted to trade up for him. I said he would be an upgrade over Woods. That was one of my worst predictions ever!!

 

It’s not time to give up on him but he doesn’t need to be sheltered either. Let’s call it what it is; he sucked last year. It would be a huge lift if he had a bounce back but the Bills can’t count on that. Production from him will be found money at this point.

Edited February 17, 2018 by Kirby Jackson

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

9 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I'm not a Tyrod advocate. But let's be fair here. Zay's failure was his failure. He had a lot of drops and more problematic he rarely got separation. He being blanketed was on him, not the qb. I'm certainly not giving up on him. His production in college was to prolific to write him off. I'm hoping that he is the type of player who after being acclimated to the pro game will make a quantum leap next year. 

Which is why Ifound it interesting that the short routes were his strength.   

 

Forcing him deep was a mistake.  

 

 

[Kirby Jackson]

7 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

Which is why Ifound it interesting that the short routes were his strength.   

 

Forcing him deep was a mistake.  

 

 

No doubt about this. That was the problem with the Bills having all of those lumbering receivers. They had to use Zay to stretch the field (especially before Deonte Thompson got there). They didn’t do him any favors.

 

I think that it was mostly mental though. I was a baseball player and made 5 errors in a game in high school. The ball just kept finding it me and I was just fighting it. The errors just kept piling up. That was how it was for Zay this year. He couldn’t get a break. He needed a play or 2 to really lift the weight off his shoulders. Zay knew that they needed him and he was pressing. Hopefully this break will be good for him. I still think that he can help them. He was too productive in college to be a disaster.

[JohnC]

Just now, Kirby Jackson said:

No doubt about this. That was the problem with the Bills having all of those lumbering receivers. They had to use Zay to stretch the field (especially before Deonte Thompson got there). They didn’t do him any favors.

 

I think that it was mostly mental though. I was a baseball player and made 5 errors in a game in high school. The ball just kept finding it me and I was just fighting it. The errors just kept piling up. That was how it was for Zay this year. He couldn’t get a break. He needed a play or 2 to really lift the weight off his shoulders. Zay knew that they needed him and he was pressing. Hopefully this break will be good for him. I still think that he can help them. He was too productive in college to be a disaster.

One would think that an error prone player such as you would be more sympathetic and empathetic toward Peterman in his starting debut. 

side note: Canisius just beat Monmouth 78-60

 

[3rdand12]

10 hours ago, elroy16 said:

 

 

Zay had some trouble separating from corners and with drops. I'm sure having a torn labrum didn't help getting off press or catching tough passes. Saying he was awful is an exaggeration.

 

WR isn't an easy position for college players to come and play at a high level right away, especially coming from a smaller school. He probably won't be a #1, but I think he can be a solid slot receiver. 

nope. you are kind and generous as i might wish to be.

he was awful

 He knows this.

 And so does his Mom : )

only way to go is up for him. I expect he will pull himself together during this coming season.

 

did they bring Lal back yet?.....

2 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

" Saying he was awful is an exaggeration."

 

 

 

Edited February 17, 2018 by 3rdand12

[FLFan]

19 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

No doubt about this. That was the problem with the Bills having all of those lumbering receivers. They had to use Zay to stretch the field (especially before Deonte Thompson got there). They didn’t do him any favors.

 

I think that it was mostly mental though. I was a baseball player and made 5 errors in a game in high school. The ball just kept finding it me and I was just fighting it. The errors just kept piling up. That was how it was for Zay this year. He couldn’t get a break. He needed a play or 2 to really lift the weight off his shoulders. Zay knew that they needed him and he was pressing. Hopefully this break will be good for him. I still think that he can help them. He was too productive in college to be a disaster.

All true, although I think he did largely work himself out of the aweful start in terms of catching the ball. The problem became getting open. They did him no favors playing him on the outside. Hopefully with the changes being made, and hopefully with a QB who can/will actually throw the ball, playing out of the slot he will develop. It is certainly way too early to give up on him. 

[Misterbluesky]

11 hours ago, White Linen said:

This is one of the major reasons to not like Taylor as your teams QB.  He's a development killer.  

T T is to blame for dropped balls too?

[Kirby Jackson]

36 minutes ago, JohnC said:

One would think that an error prone player such as you would be more sympathetic and empathetic toward Peterman in his starting debut. 

side note: Canisius just beat Monmouth 78-60

 

Ha ha, well played

 

I watched the Griffs game. Reese has been outstanding!! Big game Sunday

[starrymessenger]

Not worried about Isiah.

Isiah's gonna be good.