Mike Mayock's Final 2018 Draft Position Rankings & Top 100 Prospects - Mock Draft on Wednesday at 8 PM ET on NFLN

[Augie]

8 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

Mel Kiper has him ranked #1 overall after his performance at the senior bowl.

 

Crazy stuff!  I get the whole “tools/upside” thing, but was he about 56% through college? It’s hard to get past that. 

[transplantbillsfan]

Yuck to Josh Allen... seriously?!

[WideRightRevenge]

I can't believe I'm going to say this .... but the more I read ... I'm leaning to Jackson (as we don't have to trade away our entire draft to get him)  .. and think maybe he can be different than Tyrod ... given below analysis among others of multiple reads and pocket passing.  His arm based on highlights looks like a rocket.  I was thinking Mason at first .. but the intangibles with Jackson outweigh Rudolph in my opinion who plays in a wide open Big 12 (heave it up and they will catch it).

 

I also like White from Western Ky but don't see him in first round .. so who knows take two QB's?  Who Needs veterans -- now that is out of the box thinking ... Nate, Jackson, and White?

 

4. Lamar Jackson, Louisville, 6’3, 211 lbs.

Jackson has an amazing skill set with a powerful arm that allows him to make throws off a platform that many NFL quarterbacks couldn’t even dream of making. He is tough in the pocket, knows his scheme well, and has amazing athleticism and speed as a runner. Jackson looks like a taller and right-handed version of Michael Vick. In 2017, Jackson completed 59 percent of his passes for 3,660 yards with 27 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He averaged 6.9 yards per carry on the ground on his way to 1,601 yards and 18 rushing touchdowns.

Jackson isn’t respected enough as a quarterback though. The knocks are predictable: He’s too skinny, his footwork needs to be improved and he doesn’t win from the pocket. Those arguments don’t take into account multiple factors.

First, Jackson improved each season from the pocket. Second, Bobby Petrino’s offense asked him to make multiple reads in the passing game. Finally, Jackson is only 20 years old and still developing. No one can deny his production and consistent dominance against top competition.

[PaattMaann]

13 hours ago, TheTruthHurts said:

I think he bases his rankings mostly on what he hears. I'm willing to bet the top 3 is how most of the real NFL scouts see it. 

 

That is not at all how he compiles his rankings, he actually does the leg work, which makes him a better talent evaluator then other media pundits.

 

My point was this: he is the best media talent evaluator out there, not necessarily a mocker, but talent evaluator so I tend to trust his thoughts on prospects more than others. BUT, he has a bad track record at the QB position

[NewEraBills]

I like Mike but there's just no way Allen from a production standpoint and even when you look at film, there's no way he's the #2 QB.  Mike has to have him here on potential alone because there's nothing else to support that ranking.  NOTHING!!

[SoCal Deek]

The Bills should sit tight and take whichever QB is still there at 22. Take your higher rated player at 21. What’s the worst that can happen? If he doesn’t work out is it really that much worse than Lawson, Ragland, Sammy or the long list of high picks that went on to ‘greatness’ for the franchise.

[FeelingOnYouboty]

 

8 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

Mel Kiper has him ranked #1 overall after his performance at the senior bowl.

 

His son works for the Jets and they're super high on him. This is Mel getting ahead of the story when they take him at #6.

Edited February 16, 2018 by FeelingOnYouboty

[DCOrange]

15 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

Interesting stat to look at.

 

Interesting stat for sure, but I don't really know what to make of it. Using percentage for air yards seems weird to me. You could argue a high percentage = your ball placement isn't good, resulting in a lack of YAC and also argue that a low percentage = you rely on YAC and can't push the ball down the field. I don't know why someone would choose to use the percentage instead of just average air yards per attempt or something.

27 minutes ago, NewEraBills said:

I like Mike but there's just no way Allen from a production standpoint and even when you look at film, there's no way he's the #2 QB.  Mike has to have him here on potential alone because there's nothing else to support that ranking.  NOTHING!!

 

Well, sure, obviously potential is a major factor when it comes to drafting your future players. Having a ton of potential should absolutely boost a player's draft stock.

[26CornerBlitz]

Mike Mayock Breaks Down His Top 5 QB Prospects in 2018 NFL Draft (3:17)

[I_want_2_BILL_Lieve]

This ranking will change after the combine an pro days. It's February, we need a QB so this is what we do. 

 

In the WGR piece Mayock said that Allen may have the highest floor. He said Allen has prototypical size, and his big arm will make GMs fall in love with him. He does everything well, but doesn't do any one thing great. 

 

Each one of the top 6 - 8 QB in this class has concerns. Whether it's turnovers, completion percentage, previous injuries, size, character concerns, offensive system , etc, etc. But they are all legitimate first round grades.

 

I've talked myself in and out of each of these guys. Will we trade up for a top 2 guy? (whoever that is) or sit tight and see who falls to us at 21? I cannot wait for the draft. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 hour ago, PaattMaann said:

 

That is not at all how he compiles his rankings, he actually does the leg work, which makes him a better talent evaluator then other media pundits.

 

My point was this: he is the best media talent evaluator out there, not necessarily a mocker, but talent evaluator so I tend to trust his thoughts on prospects more than others. BUT, he has a bad track record at the QB position

He scouts, I still think he uses a lot of what he hears. His rankings often differ from the majority.

[PaattMaann]

7 minutes ago, TheTruthHurts said:

He scouts, I still think he uses a lot of what he hears. His rankings often differ from the majority.

 

his are different from the majority BECAUSE he scouts/watches film and knows football. The majority just parrots each other / group thinks / sells for their station/network/news outlet. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 minute ago, PaattMaann said:

 

his are different from the majority BECAUSE he scouts/watches film and knows football. The majority just parrots each other / group thinks / sells for their station/network/news outlet. 

I have always liked Mayock but I don't believe he gets his rankings on his own. I think the league helps him. 

Edited February 16, 2018 by TheTruthHurts

[Hapless Bills Fan]

23 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

Quarterback

1. Sam Darnold, USC 
2. Josh Allen, Wyoming 
3. Josh Rosen, UCLA 
4. Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma 
T-5. Lamar Jackson, Louisville 
T-5. Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State

 

Fortunately for them, draft pundits have zero accountability for their draft prospect rankings.

 

I would be quite shocked if any NFL team had them ranked that way.

1 hour ago, PaattMaann said:

his are different from the majority BECAUSE he scouts/watches film and knows football. The majority just parrots each other / group thinks / sells for their station/network/news outlet. 

 

I dunno.  I think that's a very strange ranking for a guy who scouts/watches film and knows football

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Fortunately for them, draft pundits have zero accountability for their draft prospect rankings.

 

I would be quite shocked if any NFL team had them ranked that way.

Josh Allen is what GM's get excited for and also fired for. I wouldn't be shocked if he goes 1 or 2.

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Fortunately for them, draft pundits have zero accountability for their draft prospect rankings.

 

I would be quite shocked if any NFL team had them ranked that way.

 

I wouldn't be at all.  They all have different criteria with some making projections based on potential and the ability of their coaching staff to correct flaws. 

[PaattMaann]

19 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Fortunately for them, draft pundits have zero accountability for their draft prospect rankings.

 

I would be quite shocked if any NFL team had them ranked that way.

 

I dunno.  I think that's a very strange ranking for a guy who scouts/watches film and knows football

 

again, he has been GREAT at every other position but has SUCKED when evaluating QBs 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

14 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

I wouldn't be at all.  They all have different criteria with some making projections based on potential and the ability of their coaching staff to correct flaws. 

 

Well, in 2011 Locker, Gabbert, and Ponder all went in the 1st.  So you could be right.

 

Let's just say I hope that's not how our board looks.

[DCOrange]

11 minutes ago, PaattMaann said:

 

again, he has been GREAT at every other position but has SUCKED when evaluating QBs 

 

What exactly is your basis for this? His QB rankings over the years basically look the way the draft actually played out:

 

2017:

Watson, Trubisky, Mahomes, Kizer, Webb - He had Watson higher than he ended up going and currently looks smart for it

 

2016:

Wentz, Goff, Lynch, Cook, Hackenburg - He missed on Dak like everybody else and seems to be correct about Wentz > Goff right now

 

2015:

Mariota, Jameis, Petty, Hundley, Mannion - After the top 2, this class was horrible. Mariota has arguably been better than Jameis so far.

 

2014:

Manziel, Bortles, Carr, Garoppolo, tie between Bridgewater and Mettenberger - Obviously Manziel was a bust, hard to say what could have been if not for his off-field issues. Obviously right now you'd take Garoppolo and Carr over Bortles, but these rankings are more or less in line with how everyone else felt that year, with the exception that he was higher on Carr and Garoppolo than most.

 

2013: 

Doesn't really matter; that whole class was awful.

 

2012:

Luck, RG3, Tannehill, Weeden, Cousins - He didn't have Russell Wilson in here but nobody really did. I think these rankings pretty much mirror how everyone else felt at the time.

 

Couldn't find 2011 or 2010, but 2009:

Sanchez, Stafford, Josh Freeman, Pat White, Stephen McGee - This was basically a 1 QB draft and he screwed up by having Sanchez over Stafford.

 

I don't know; I don't look at those rankings and think "man this dude sucks at evaluating QBs".

 

[PaattMaann]

26 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

What exactly is your basis for this? His QB rankings over the years basically look the way the draft actually played out:

 

2017:

Watson, Trubisky, Mahomes, Kizer, Webb - He had Watson higher than he ended up going and currently looks smart for it

 

2016:

Wentz, Goff, Lynch, Cook, Hackenburg - He missed on Dak like everybody else and seems to be correct about Wentz > Goff right now

 

2015:

Mariota, Jameis, Petty, Hundley, Mannion - After the top 2, this class was horrible. Mariota has arguably been better than Jameis so far.

 

2014:

Manziel, Bortles, Carr, Garoppolo, tie between Bridgewater and Mettenberger - Obviously Manziel was a bust, hard to say what could have been if not for his off-field issues. Obviously right now you'd take Garoppolo and Carr over Bortles, but these rankings are more or less in line with how everyone else felt that year, with the exception that he was higher on Carr and Garoppolo than most.

 

2013: 

Doesn't really matter; that whole class was awful.

 

2012:

Luck, RG3, Tannehill, Weeden, Cousins - He didn't have Russell Wilson in here but nobody really did. I think these rankings pretty much mirror how everyone else felt at the time.

 

Couldn't find 2011 or 2010, but 2009:

Sanchez, Stafford, Josh Freeman, Pat White, Stephen McGee - This was basically a 1 QB draft and he screwed up by having Sanchez over Stafford.

 

I don't know; I don't look at those rankings and think "man this dude sucks at evaluating QBs".

 

 

evaluations not rankings 

[JohnBonhamRocks]

Not sure what thread would be better for this, but anyone familiar with Needham, CB, UTEP? Seems like a good fit based on this scouting report from Walterfootball:

 

Nik Needham, CB, UTEP 
Height: 6-0. Weight: 190. 
Projected 40 Time: 4.59. 
Projected Round (2018): 4-6. 

1/22/18: As a senior, Needham recorded 59 tackles with eight passes broken up and an interception. He totaled 54 tackles with 11 breakups as a junior after 38 tackles and five breakups as a sophomore. 

 

Sources tell me that Needham impressed them with his cover skills for UTEP. They say that while he is not a burner, he is an outstanding technician who beats up receivers at the line of scrimmage. Needham doesn't have a lot of interceptions because teams threw away from him, but from watching him in practice, they say that he has good hands and ball skills. While his team struggled, Needham locked down some good receivers over the past few years while being a 3-year starter. They feel Needham would be a good zone corner in the NFL.

[thebandit27]

Post-combine top-5 updated:

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000920805/article/mike-mayocks-2018-nfl-draft-position-rankings-20

[BigBuff423]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

Post-combine top-5 updated:

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000920805/article/mike-mayocks-2018-nfl-draft-position-rankings-20

 

FWIW, I find it interesting Mayock has Josh Allen ranked 2nd behind Darnold....with so many geniuses on this board saying Allen is garbage. If Mayock & NFL scouts have Allen ranked that high, I will trust them....especially this FO, they’ve established faith in getting it right.

[Klaista2k]

Wow this is exactly how I ranked the quarterback's in this years class. 
 

[K-9]

1 hour ago, BigBuff423 said:

 

FWIW, I find it interesting Mayock has Josh Allen ranked 2nd behind Darnold....with so many geniuses on this board saying Allen is garbage. If Mayock & NFL scouts have Allen ranked that high, I will trust them....especially this FO, they’ve established faith in getting it right.

I know several pro scouts that don't have Allen ranked above Darnold. Mayock is good, but he's not a scout. He just doesn't have the kind of time and freedom necessary to be where the rubber meets the road from August through January. He's the best at what he does, imo, but he is not a scout. 

[LEBills]

2 hours ago, BigBuff423 said:

 

FWIW, I find it interesting Mayock has Josh Allen ranked 2nd behind Darnold....with so many geniuses on this board saying Allen is garbage. If Mayock & NFL scouts have Allen ranked that high, I will trust them....especially this FO, they’ve established faith in getting it right.

 

You get a lot of people that look at stats and make their decision on who the best QB is. That’s why so many people call Allen garbage and think that Mayfield is football jeebus’s QB gift to earth. In reality, those two are probably much closer to each other from a scouting perspective.

 

Personally, Allen is 3rd for me out of this class. Unfortunately, it takes a couple years for either side to be vindicated.

[jrober38]

Mike is historically not a good evaluator of QBs.

 

Every year he falls in love with the guys who look the best throwing the ball in a pair of shorts. 

Edited March 14, 2018 by jrober38

[Fadingpain]

On February 15, 2018 at 5:45 PM, TheTruthHurts said:

I think he bases his rankings mostly on what he hears. I'm willing to bet the top 3 is how most of the real NFL scouts see it. 

He watches film and takes pride in doing his own scouting so to speak.

 

By his own admission, where his analysis suffers is in not meeting most/all of the players that he is assessing.

 

He only has the tape to work from.

 

He has mentioned before that all of the top QB prospects this year have a hole or 2 in their game; no one is perfect and he has also mentioned Josh Allen's accuracy being a problem that he may not be able to overcome at the NFL level.

 

 

[billsbackto81]

On 2/15/2018 at 11:45 AM, PaattMaann said:

Mayock is a good media draft prospect evaluator, EXCEPT at QB

What are you talking about? He loved Kizer last draft. 

[Solomon Grundy]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2763953-simms-spotlight-lamar-jackson-is-no1-qb-in-2018-draft

[26CornerBlitz]

Mayock's Final 2018 NFL Draft Position Rankings

Quarterback

1. Sam Darnold, USC 
2. Josh Allen, Wyoming 
3. Josh Rosen, UCLA 
4. Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma 
5. Lamar Jackson, Louisville

Fall: Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State (T-5)

 

Wide receiver

1. DJ Moore, Maryland 
2. Calvin Ridley, Alabama 
3. Courtland Sutton, SMU 
4. Christian Kirk, Texas A&M 
T-5. James Washington, Oklahoma State 
T-5. Anthony Miller, Memphis

Rise: Moore (2), Sutton (4), Washington (NR)
Fall: Ridley (1), Kirk (3), Sutton (3), DJ Chark, LSU (T-5)

 

Interior DL

1. Vita Vea, Washington 
2. Da'Ron Payne, Alabama 
3. Taven Bryan, Florida 
4. Nathan Shepherd, Fort Hays State 
T-5. Harrison Phillips, Stanford 
T-5. Derrick Nnadi, Florida State

Rise: Shepherd (NR), Nnadi (NR)
Fall: Maurice Hurst, Michigan (4)

 

Linebacker

1. Roquan Smith, Georgia 
2. Tremaine Edmunds, Virginia Tech 
3. Rashaan Evans, Alabama 
4. Leighton Vander Esch, Boise State 
5. Uchenna Nwosu, USC

Rise: Smith (2), Evans (4)
Fall: Edmunds (1), Vander Esch (3)

 

Cornerback

1. Denzel Ward, Ohio State 
2. Jaire Alexander, Louisville 
3. Mike Hughes, UCF 
4. Isaiah Oliver, Colorado 
T-5. Donte Jackson, LSU 
T-5. Josh Jackson, Iowa

Rise: Hughes (4), Oliver (5), Donte Jackson (NR)
Fall: Josh Jackson (3)

[MrEpsYtown]

2 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

Mayock's Final 2018 NFL Draft Position Rankings

Quarterback

1. Sam Darnold, USC 
2. Josh Allen, Wyoming 
3. Josh Rosen, UCLA 
4. Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma 
5. Lamar Jackson, Louisville

Fall: Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State (T-5)

 

Wide receiver

1. DJ Moore, Maryland 
2. Calvin Ridley, Alabama 
3. Courtland Sutton, SMU 
4. Christian Kirk, Texas A&M 
T-5. James Washington, Oklahoma State 
T-5. Anthony Miller, Memphis

Rise: Moore (2), Sutton (4), Washington (NR)
Fall: Ridley (1), Kirk (3), Sutton (3), DJ Chark, LSU (T-5)

 

Interior DL

1. Vita Vea, Washington 
2. Da'Ron Payne, Alabama 
3. Taven Bryan, Florida 
4. Nathan Shepherd, Fort Hays State 
T-5. Harrison Phillips, Stanford 
T-5. Derrick Nnadi, Florida State

Rise: Shepherd (NR), Nnadi (NR)
Fall: Maurice Hurst, Michigan (4)

 

Linebacker

1. Roquan Smith, Georgia 
2. Tremaine Edmunds, Virginia Tech 
3. Rashaan Evans, Alabama 
4. Leighton Vander Esch, Boise State 
5. Uchenna Nwosu, USC

Rise: Smith (2), Evans (4)
Fall: Edmunds (1), Vander Esch (3)

 

Cornerback

1. Denzel Ward, Ohio State 
2. Jaire Alexander, Louisville 
3. Mike Hughes, UCF 
4. Isaiah Oliver, Colorado 
T-5. Donte Jackson, LSU 
T-5. Josh Jackson, Iowa

Rise: Hughes (4), Oliver (5), Donte Jackson (NR)
Fall: Josh Jackson (3)

 

The changes to his list usually reflect a lot of the chatter about guys at this time and where they slot in. I think last year he had Kizer as the #1 quarterback, then at like 4-5 a week before the draft. I remember EJ Manuel artificially moving up his list as well. 

[Tyrod's friend]

On 2/15/2018 at 2:50 PM, Kemp said:

The only thing I care about in a QB is throwing accuracy and Mayfield always looks accurate to me. This doesn't mean I don't like the other top QBs.

Baker Mayfield - far and away the best QB prospect, and second best prospect (Barkley) that this draft will graduate. 

Just imagine ... if the Browns take Barkley first overall and practically goad the Jets into taking Darnold. It will leave them with Barkley AND Mayfield. SMH.

[26CornerBlitz]

 

 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

 

[thebandit27]

I see Mike has come around on Derrick Nnadi and Rasheem Green...took him long enough

 

 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[Canadian Bills Fan]

Does anyone else like watching Mayocks mock draft the night before draft day?

[Klaista2k]

LOL at people that think they know more about QB's than Mike Mayock.