Source: Bills Still Deciding on Watkins' 5th Year Option

[SWATeam]

they didn't release a statement. Sal asked someone in the org if the decision had been made yet, and the source said it hadn't. Same as 30 other teams, since only one has been announced (Aaron Donald).

Yeah, it could be nothing. I was taking it as an intentional leak.

[PABillsfan23]

If they let Gilmore walk and decline Sammy's option only to take WR #10 and CB in round 2 that would be so Bills.

Most good franchises do it all the time.. Look no further than Pittsburgh.

[metzelaars_lives]

It hasn't turned out to be a good trade but that doesn't mean it was a bad trade at the time. No one could have possibly foreseen his injury problems. He's obviously a beast when healthy. There's no way that if he does manage to put two straight fully healthy years together he's not a top ten type WR in this league. Especially on a team with a competent passing game.

[Eric Moulds on my A**]

He's only 23 years old

[Rob's House]

Unless they think his foot isn't going to heal I think it's definitely worth the risk. His production hasn't been what we'd have hoped but when he's on the guy is phenomenal. Talent like that has been all too hard to find in Buffalo. Demaryius Thomas was a huge disappointment his first two years when he was struggling with injuries, and look how that turned out.

 

Just think of how we'd feel if we declined and lost him only to watch him fulfill his potential on another team.

[Bill_with_it]

What's there to decide? Pick it up...easily a top-10 (if not top-5) WR when healthy.

Yikes.

[klos63]

 

It's not as big a slam dunk as you seem to think it is.

Unless the Bills feel there is a chance his foot won't heal properly, it's a slam dunk

[thebandit27]

Yikes.

Look at the numbers

 

He out produces all but the top 3-4 WRs in the gam on a per target basis

[Augie]

He's only 23 years old

That seems so hard to believe! He will have a great career. Stay healthy young man, you have all the talent in the world. Yes, pay him the $13 mil or whatever it is.

[BarleyNY]

Of course I'd pick it up. He certainly possesses talent, but that talent exceeds his production thus far. I'd like to keep him around and find out if he can stay healthy and bring his production into line with his talent. At this time there's no way I'd give him a long term deal, so picking up his option seems the best course of action.

[DDD]

He has shown flashes. I call him "ankle breaker" the way he can cut on his routes and make CB's look silly. Unfortunately his career is being ruined by injuries. Can't depend on him so might be time to move on.

[Augie]

He has shown flashes. I call him "ankle breaker" the way he can cut on his routes and make CB's look silly. Unfortunately his career is being ruined by injuries. Can't depend on him so might be time to move on.

 

Since he's still 23, his career has a long way to go. I hope he stays healthy and gets a HOF style streak going, unless it's on and AFCE team that is not the Bills. Edited April 14, 2017 by Augie

[Manther]

I don't see any way Whaley doesn't back up the Brinks truck on this one

Agreed

[ILBillsfan]

This is why the Bills will draft a WR with the tenth pick

[Bill_with_it]

Look at the numbers

 

He out produces all but the top 3-4 WRs in the gam on a per target basis

Does he out produce them in number of games played?

Bo jackson could have been but isnt..

[Gugny]

It hasn't turned out to be a good trade but that doesn't mean it was a bad trade at the time. No one could have possibly foreseen his injury problems. He's obviously a beast when healthy. There's no way that if he does manage to put two straight fully healthy years together he's not a top ten type WR in this league. Especially on a team with a competent passing game.

 

A rare occasion on which Metz and I agree 100%.

 

The only caveat I'll add is that I personally (as in my opinion, not stating as fact, don't ask for a !@#$ing link) think that WRs with a better sense of loyalty and dedication to team would play through some of the nicks and dings Sammy has sat out for.

 

I don't think he wants to be on the Bills at all. The reason ... that's for another thread that will come up eventually.

 

But yes ... with a halfway decent QB, Watkins plays 16 games and tears this league apart.

[thebandit27]

Does he out produce them in number of games played?

Bo jackson could have been but isnt..

For my money, the 2 best WRs in the NFL are Antonio Brown and Julio Jones.

 

Both played the same number of games through 4 NFL seasons as Watkins.

[GunnerBill]

 

Cap figure could be a reason. I'd rather get Watkins inked to a 6 year deal prior to the end of his deal than pay him $13M base one year THEN have to spread another deal out over six years. The franchise tag is not THAT much higher than $13M.

This was exactly my thinking too.

[Bill_with_it]

For my money, the 2 best WRs in the NFL are Antonio Brown and Julio Jones.

 

Both played the same number of games through 4 NFL seasons as Watkins.

When did Sammy complete four season as an nfl wr. He was a rookie in 2014.

Ab was available for 53 games his first year. In 2012 he missed 4 games due to injury.so your not painting the complete picture. Although he only started 27 games he had 3630.

Jj played in 48 games his first four years amassing 4424 ap yards and 28 tds.

Ill be sure to revisit this topic st the end of this season. I cant put Sammy in an elite status when he hasnt shown he has the capability of being elite.

[oldmanfan]

You of course pick up his 5th year. He's a force when healthy. The fifth year doesn't cost much, and if his health continues to be an issue you simply don't sign him to a second deal.

[Pbomb]

Cant believe some people voted no. Lets let sammy go a year early, that will really help our wr core. A good player gets hurt and some people want to run them out of town

If you hate him that much atleast pickup the option and try to trade him, im sure there are alot of teams out there that wouldnt mind having him

Edited April 14, 2017 by Pbomb

[PlayoffsPlease]

It is a business decision. Not a football decision. His option is 13 million, and it is guaranteed even if he is injured. If they don't exercise the option, they can franchise him for around 16 million. A 3 million loss if he is healthy vs. a 13 million loss if he is injured.

[Bill_with_it]

It is a business decision. Not a football decision. His option is 13 million, and it is guaranteed even if he is injured. If they don't exercise the option, they can franchise him for around 16 million. A 3 million loss if he is healthy vs. a 13 million loss if he is injured.

Agreed see if he can manage some semblence of a complete season before committing 13 mil to him. If he can manage a complete season franchise him and negotiate a full contract before the franchise tag kicks in. Its pretty simple, keep emotions out and let a good buisness decision prevail.

[thebandit27]

When did Sammy complete four season as an nfl wr. He was a rookie in 2014.

Ab was available for 53 games his first year. In 2012 he missed 4 games due to injury.so your not painting the complete picture. Although he only started 27 games he had 3630.

Jj played in 48 games his first four years amassing 4424 ap yards and 28 tds.

Ill be sure to revisit this topic st the end of this season. I cant put Sammy in an elite status when he hasnt shown he has the capability of being elite.

 

4 was a typo (it was early )...supposed to say 3

 

Sammy has played in 37 games through 3 seasons

Brown played in 38 games through 3 seasons

Julio played in 34 games through 3 seasons

 

As for status, I wouldn't put Sammy in elite yet precisely because of availability; I add the caveat that when he's on the field and targeted, he produces right alongside the elite of the NFL.

 

I found the 2 articles below to be quite useful for contextual purposes:

 

http://www.footballperspective.com/guest-post-adam-harstad-on-sammy-watkins/

http://nysportsbiz.com/2016/01/04/sammy-watkins-arguably-nfls-top-wr-2nd-half-season/

Agreed see if he can manage some semblence of a complete season before committing 13 mil to him. If he can manage a complete season franchise him and negotiate a full contract before the franchise tag kicks in. Its pretty simple, keep emotions out and let a good buisness decision prevail.

 

A better business decision, IMO, is to pick up the option, which doesn't become fully-guaranteed until the new league year.

 

That way, you (a) have time to evaluate his ongoing availability without being locked in to paying a lot of gtd money, (b) have the opportunity to sign him to an extension while he's still under contract, and © save a bit of money against the tag.

[Bill_with_it]

 

4 was a typo (it was early )...supposed to say 3

 

Sammy has played in 37 games through 3 seasons

Brown played in 38 games through 3 seasons

Julio played in 34 games through 3 seasons

 

As for status, I wouldn't put Sammy in elite yet precisely because of availability; I add the caveat that when he's on the field and targeted, he produces right alongside the elite of the NFL.

 

I found the 2 articles below to be quite useful for contextual purposes:

 

http://www.footballperspective.com/guest-post-adam-harstad-on-sammy-watkins/

http://nysportsbiz.com/2016/01/04/sammy-watkins-arguably-nfls-top-wr-2nd-half-season/

 

 

A better business decision, IMO, is to pick up the option, which doesn't become fully-guaranteed until the new league year.

 

That way, you (a) have time to evaluate his ongoing availability without being locked in to paying a lot of gtd money, (b) have the opportunity to sign him to an extension while he's still under contract, and © save a bit of money against the tag.

The money is guaranteed against injury. Its not a better buisness decision you save appx 3 mil if Sammy can stay healthy (something he has shown to have difficulty at). Its far more likely that saving 3 mil gets spent on some wr to fill his position this when hes injured while we are also paying him 13 mil which would likely exceed the franchise tag. The franchise tag isnt guaranteed against injury.

 

Sammy watkins has shown me nothing to place him with the likes of the highest rated wrs in the league. He had a fine half season of foitball in 2015. But prior to that he was asnt tops or near tops in anything of substance. History is riddled with examples of wrs breaking out for a year and then falling back down to earth. Make Sammy earn it before paying him.

[teef]

yup. i think you have to.

The Bills plan to use him stinks and Sammy has yet to become a dominant player.

you still don't cast him aside because of this.

[YoloinOhio]

Since when does a player have to be dominant/"elite"/injury free to warrant picking up his option? I'm pretty surprised at this discussion. This team finally has a real #1 WR and some people can't wait to move on even though he's only 23. Good luck finding someone better in the draft or attracting one better to come here in FA. They will pick up the option and try to sign him long term, will tag him if needed. The money is not prohibitive, it's what #1 WRs make. Imo

Edited April 14, 2017 by YoloinOhio

[Kirby Jackson]

Since when does a player have to be dominant/"elite"/injury free to warrant picking up his option? I'm pretty surprised at this discussion. This team finally has a real #1 WR and some people can't wait to move on even though he's only 23. Good luck finding someone better in the draft or attracting one better to come here in FA. They will pick up the option and try to sign him long term, will tag him if needed. The money is not prohibitive, it's what #1 WRs make. Imo

Yeah, this conversation is really stupid. The Bills can't be that dumb. Pick up the option and thrown him the football more than 6.5 times a game.

[Bill_with_it]

Since when does a player have to be dominant/"elite"/injury free to warrant picking up his option? I'm pretty surprised at this discussion. This team finally has a real #1 WR and some people can't wait to move on even though he's only 23. Good luck finding someone better in the draft or attracting one better to come here in FA. They will pick up the option and try to sign him long term, will tag him if needed. The money is not prohibitive, it's what #1 WRs make. Imo

It would cost 13 mil guaranteed for watkins at least for the option.

If sammy misses time he gets paid. If Sammy misses time we likely have to get another wr vosting more money. We could easily franchise tag him if he shows he is more valuable production this year than last year. Production warrants paydays. Its a buisness. Last year Sammys production was below that of Robert Woods. If the talent isnt on the field and on the trainers table it doesnt matter how talenred the player is.

[CodeMonkey]

What's there to decide? Pick it up...easily a top-10 (if not top-5) WR when healthy.

That's the key. He is certainly has not been a top 10 even receiver, particularly last year for that reason. And he is coming to camp recovering from yet another off season surgery. Depending upon the contract numbers, who they think they can get in the draft, free agency, and how much a top receiver is worth with the current QB situation, it may or may not make sense to pick it up. However, it is a no brainer that the Bills will pick it up because if they do not, the trade up for him looks even worse than it does already.

Edited April 14, 2017 by CodeMonkey

[thebandit27]

The money is guaranteed against injury. Its not a better buisness decision you save appx 3 mil if Sammy can stay healthy (something he has shown to have difficulty at). Its far more likely that saving 3 mil gets spent on some wr to fill his position this when hes injured while we are also paying him 13 mil which would likely exceed the franchise tag. The franchise tag isnt guaranteed against injury.

 

Sammy watkins has shown me nothing to place him with the likes of the highest rated wrs in the league. He had a fine half season of foitball in 2015. But prior to that he was asnt tops or near tops in anything of substance. History is riddled with examples of wrs breaking out for a year and then falling back down to earth. Make Sammy earn it before paying him.

 

First, the franchise tag is fully guaranteed at the moment of signing.

 

As for Sammy, as I said earlier in the thread, he lead the entire NFL in yards/target over his first 2 seasons in the league (cumulative). I've said many times here that the number one predictor of WR success is targets, and Sammy plays in an offense that happens to have attempted the fewest passes in the NFL for 2 consecutive years. That he has managed to produce as he has is actually quite remarkable.

 

Take the entire 2015 season as an example: Amari Cooper--who many would consider a top-10 NFL WR--made the pro bowl, whereas Watkins did not. Cooper had 72 receptions and 1,070 yards with 6 TDs on 130 targets in 16 games. Watkins had 60 receptions on 95 targets and 1,047 yards with 9 TDs in 13 games,

 

Compare that, for example, to another pro bowler (and likely consensus top-10 NFL WR) Jarvis Landry's 2015 season. He had 94 receptions on 165 targets and 1,157 yards with 4 TDs in 16 games.

 

In other words, Sammy is equaling (or, it can be argued, out-producing) these guys despite being given far, far fewer opportunities.

 

I maintain that his only issue is availability.

That's the key. He is certainly has not been a top 10 even receiver, particularly last year for that reason. Depending upon the contract numbers and who they think they can get in the draft and free agency it may or may not make sense to pick it up. However, it is a no brainer that the Bills will pick it up because if they do not, the trade up for him looks even worse than it does already.

 

Forget the trade-up, the guy started 29 of 32 games for his first 2 seasons and was outstanding when actually utilized like a No. 1 WR...that's why you pick up the option.

[YoloinOhio]

It would cost 13 mil guaranteed for watkins at least for the option.

If sammy misses time he gets paid. If Sammy misses time we likely have to get another wr vosting more money. We could easily franchise tag him if he shows he is more valuable production this year than last year. Production warrants paydays. Its a buisness. Last year Sammys production was below that of Robert Woods. If the talent isnt on the field and on the trainers table it doesnt matter how talenred the player is.

they have more than enough cap space to pay him. Pretty sure they've been factoring it in all along. Edited April 14, 2017 by YoloinOhio

[Bill_with_it]

 

First, the franchise tag is fully guaranteed at the moment of signing.

 

As for Sammy, as I said earlier in the thread, he lead the entire NFL in yards/target over his first 2 seasons in the league (cumulative). I've said many times here that the number one predictor of WR success is targets, and Sammy plays in an offense that happens to have attempted the fewest passes in the NFL for 2 consecutive years. That he has managed to produce as he has is actually quite remarkable.

 

Take the entire 2015 season as an example: Amari Cooper--who many would consider a top-10 NFL WR--made the pro bowl, whereas Watkins did not. Cooper had 72 receptions and 1,070 yards with 6 TDs on 130 targets in 16 games. Watkins had 60 receptions on 95 targets and 1,047 yards with 9 TDs in 13 games,

 

Compare that, for example, to another pro bowler (and likely consensus top-10 NFL WR) Jarvis Landry's 2015 season. He had 94 receptions on 165 targets and 1,157 yards with 4 TDs in 16 games.

 

In other words, Sammy is equaling (or, it can be argued, out-producing) these guys despite being given far, far fewer opportunities.

 

I maintain that his only issue is availability.

 

 

Forget the trade-up, the guy started 29 of 32 games for his first 2 seasons and was outstanding when actually utilized like a No. 1 WR...that's why you pick up the option.

Stop spreading rampant wrong information

No the franchise tag isnt fully guaranteed:

5. Franchise tender is guaranteed, with one exception.

 

Once a player signs the franchise tag, the one-year salary becomes fully guaranteed. But theres a little-known exception.

 

Under Article 10, Section 2© of the CBA, the contract can be terminated if the player fails to establish or maintain his excellent physical condition.

TD mike is picking up a ton of yards per carry are we gonna sign him to what would almost equate to top ten pay because he is geeting hefty yards per touch? No that's ludicrous as is the notion to put Watkins in the same stratosphere as elite wrs.

Edited April 14, 2017 by Bill_with_it

[CodeMonkey]

 

Forget the trade-up, the guy started 29 of 32 games for his first 2 seasons and was outstanding when actually utilized like a No. 1 WR...that's why you pick up the option.

Which is also one of the considerations, can they use him in that way with the current QB situation and given the fact that they may well be a run first team again.

I'm not saying they shouldn't pick it up, just saying it might not be such a "no brainer" except for the trade up consideration.

Edited April 14, 2017 by CodeMonkey

[dave mcbride]

It feels like a no-brainer to keep him, but I have one caveat: no one really knows how chronic his foot problem is going to be. If it's going to be a semi-permanent issue for him, then he's going to struggle to stay on the field. If he is essentially fixed now, then you keep him. Anyone who tells you that they know the status of his foot is lying.

[bisonbrigade]

I would say to let Watkins walk, but half the time Watkins cannot even do that. LOL. Best player on IR.

[Pbomb]

First, the franchise tag is fully guaranteed at the moment of signing.

 

As for Sammy, as I said earlier in the thread, he lead the entire NFL in yards/target over his first 2 seasons in the league (cumulative). I've said many times here that the number one predictor of WR success is targets, and Sammy plays in an offense that happens to have attempted the fewest passes in the NFL for 2 consecutive years. That he has managed to produce as he has is actually quite remarkable.

 

Take the entire 2015 season as an example: Amari Cooper--who many would consider a top-10 NFL WR--made the pro bowl, whereas Watkins did not. Cooper had 72 receptions and 1,070 yards with 6 TDs on 130 targets in 16 games. Watkins had 60 receptions on 95 targets and 1,047 yards with 9 TDs in 13 games,

 

Compare that, for example, to another pro bowler (and likely consensus top-10 NFL WR) Jarvis Landry's 2015 season. He had 94 receptions on 165 targets and 1,157 yards with 4 TDs in 16 games.

 

In other words, Sammy is equaling (or, it can be argued, out-producing) these guys despite being given far, far fewer opportunities.

 

I maintain that his only issue is availability.

 

Forget the trade-up, the guy started 29 of 32 games for his first 2 seasons and was outstanding when actually utilized like a No. 1 WR...that's why you pick up the option.

why even bother try to explain it. you can use stats, commonsense, reality, it doesnt matter. Some people just wanna hate on our best players and get rid of them for some reason

Stop spreading rampant wrong information

No the franchise tag isnt fully guaranteed:

5. Franchise tender is guaranteed, with one exception.

Once a player signs the franchise tag, the one-year salary becomes fully guaranteed. But theres a little-known exception.Under Article 10, Section 2© of the CBA, the contract can be terminated if the player fails to establish or maintain his excellent physical condition.

TD mike is picking up a ton of yards per carry are we gonna sign him to what would almost equate to top ten pay because he is geeting hefty yards per touch? No that's ludicrous as is the notion to put Watkins in the same stratosphere as elite wrs.

are you comparing td mike to watkins?

[dave mcbride]

Stop spreading rampant wrong information

No the franchise tag isnt fully guaranteed:

5. Franchise tender is guaranteed, with one exception.

Once a player signs the franchise tag, the one-year salary becomes fully guaranteed. But theres a little-known exception.Under Article 10, Section 2© of the CBA, the contract can be terminated if the player fails to establish or maintain his excellent physical condition.

TD mike is picking up a ton of yards per carry are we gonna sign him to what would almost equate to top ten pay because he is geeting hefty yards per touch? No that's ludicrous as is the notion to put Watkins in the same stratosphere as elite wrs.

Do you watch the games in which he is healthy? Man.

[TheElectricCompany]

Yards per target is suddenly the new metric for NFL WRs? News to me.

I love isolated performance stats that contradict the entire body of work.

I think they'll pick up the option, as they should.

Edited April 14, 2017 by TheElectricCompany

[dave mcbride]

Yards per target is suddenly the new metric for NFL WRs? News to me.

I love isolated performance stats that contradict the entire body of work.

I think they'll pick up the option, as they should.

 

? - How does that contradict the entire body of work? Watkins had over 2K receiving yds in his first two seasons, which was a lot more than Andre Reed, Lee Evans, and especially Eric Moulds.