Interesting article evaluating Trubisky & Watson

[Dr. Who]

Recent history shows our supposed QB interest is more likely a smokescreen than not. I remember us loving Carson Wentz, and having dinner with Garrett Grayson, and before that it was Ryan Nassib as our potential 1st pick. Don't believe anything you hear this time of the offseason.

I was not being sarcastic. Leroi is supposedly a real insider and he says it is a smokescreen.

I don't agree with OBD's strategy, but it is what it is as they say.

Edited April 13, 2017 by Dr. Who

[Eric Moulds on my A**]

Message board proofreader is a full-time job. Watch out for Trubinsky . . .

 

Oooooh, snap.. looks like you got him by his Cahomes.

[H2o]

qb no.1 evaluation over everything else...td to int. ratio. qbs who are in the 90/10% seem to always succeed vs. 60/40%

 

thats why i'd rather go trubisky 30-6 my ratios above are a general but it's the idea and the number one indicator to me.

 

a qb who throws over 15 picks in a season in college is probably gonna be a pick machine in the pros///jmo

www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/matt-ryan-1.html

 

Matt Ryan had 19 picks his last year in college

Edited April 13, 2017 by H2o

[jeffismagic]

Who is Howard Cossell? Is he any relation to Howard Cosell, of MNF fame?

Yes, that's him.

[BarleyNY]

Josh Norris‏Verified account @JoshNorris 15m15 minutes ago

Josh Norris Retweeted Cian Fahey

 

"Kizer’s footwork is special. His feet are always balanced and patient but he knows when to make decisive movements."

 

 

http://presnapreads.com/2017/04/12/evaluating-quarterback-prospects-mitchell-trubisky-and-deshaun-watson/

 

A few tidbits:

 

"Yet despite the constant failures that come with being a draft analyst, there are plenty of people who will try to teach you how to scout. As if there is some formula that works perfectly.

 

Michael Lombardi is one of those people. Recently Lombardi wrote his seven rules to finding a franchise quarterback on the Ringer. The article primarily focuses on mental attributes and the aesthetics. Most of what Lombardi said sounds great until you realize it can’t actually be used to proactively identify franchise quarterbacks. It relies on catchphrases and tries to examine elements of the person rather than the player.

...

It’s hard to win in the NFL with a quarterback who wastes snaps. Andy Dalton, Blake Bortles and Alex Smith are some of the worst offenders when it comes to this. Tyrod Taylor and Russell Wilson are too but they offset the plays they waste by creating outside of structure more often than other quarterbacks. Wilson and Taylor are great examples of players who have some very specific flaws but those flaws exist in the minority of their performances. The 90+ percent of what they do on the field outweighs the other 10 percent.

Thanks for posting. Excellent article.

[YattaOkasan]

Thanks for posting. Excellent article.

Agreed. I feel as if I saw some of this in the draft breakdown videos ("that sack is on him"), but I"m going to pay closer attention. Also I'm always surprised how few views those videos have on Youtube.

[dave mcbride]

Recent history shows our supposed QB interest is more likely a smokescreen than not. I remember us loving Carson Wentz, and having dinner with Garrett Grayson, and before that it was Ryan Nassib as our potential 1st pick. Don't believe anything you hear this time of the offseason.

 

College stats are mostly meaningless anyways. Watson ran a one-read spread offense at Clemson, had inconsistent footwork and inconsistent accuracy/ball placement. Throwing that many interceptions in a college offense is a big red flag. He relied on his athleticism which won't work as well in the NFL. IMO he is a 3rd round project at best. Which means I expect him to get taken in the 2nd.

The Bills really wanted Wentz. The problem is that his stock shot up off the charts. It wasn't a smokescreen.

[C.Biscuit97]

The Bills really wanted Wentz. The problem is that his stock shot up off the charts. It wasn't a smokescreen.

What is this based on?

[GunnerBill]

The Bills really wanted Wentz. The problem is that his stock shot up off the charts. It wasn't a smokescreen.

The Bills had allegedly been on him since the previous year's Blesto meetings but were thinking he would be a 2nd or 3rd rounder. His rise was dramatic.

[BUFFALOKIE]

Trubisky and watson?! I bet there are no other threads about these guys. Better start a new one.

[BillsFan4]

Josh Norris‏Verified account @JoshNorris 15m15 minutes ago

Josh Norris Retweeted Cian Fahey

 

"Kizer’s footwork is special. His feet are always balanced and patient but he knows when to make decisive movements."

 

 

http://presnapreads.com/2017/04/12/evaluating-quarterback-prospects-mitchell-trubisky-and-deshaun-watson/

 

A few tidbits:

 

"Yet despite the constant failures that come with being a draft analyst, there are plenty of people who will try to teach you how to scout. As if there is some formula that works perfectly.

 

Michael Lombardi is one of those people. Recently Lombardi wrote his seven rules to finding a franchise quarterback on the Ringer. The article primarily focuses on mental attributes and the aesthetics. Most of what Lombardi said sounds great until you realize it can’t actually be used to proactively identify franchise quarterbacks. It relies on catchphrases and tries to examine elements of the person rather than the player.

...

It’s hard to win in the NFL with a quarterback who wastes snaps. Andy Dalton, Blake Bortles and Alex Smith are some of the worst offenders when it comes to this. Tyrod Taylor and Russell Wilson are too but they offset the plays they waste by creating outside of structure more often than other quarterbacks. Wilson and Taylor are great examples of players who have some very specific flaws but those flaws exist in the minority of their performances. The 90+ percent of what they do on the field outweighs the other 10 percent.

I thought that was a great article (maybe because I agree with much of it? lol). Thanks for sharing.

 

I see a lot of the same problems in Deshaun Watson that he does - the issues with his accuracy, decision making, footwork, ability to play in the pocket (among other things).

 

I'm not going to lie, I'd be pretty terrified if Whaley drafted him in the 1st, let alone the top 10. There are some things I like about Watson, but I just feel like the chances are high that he might be one of those successful college QBs who's games don't translate to success in the NFL.

[starrymessenger]

I agree with what CF has written. I think that MT is the prospect that best projects to the next level from this years class. I also think he is a top 10 pick and the first QB off the board. I think he may be gone to SF at 2 if they do not find their QB in NE or Washington, though that would probably be a bad spot for him because he may be pressured to start too early and despite his high ceiling (IMO) he is in no way ready for that. Or the Jets may pick him at six. If he is there at 10 I think the Bills may well take the plunge and if they are inclined to go QB early I hope he is the guy. I would be depressed if Watson was an early Bills pick, or indeed if he were picked at all. As for Kizer we dont need another big athletic QB who is an inaccurate passer.

MT has flaws to his game, specifically holding onto the ball too long and a startling failure to read a defence at times, leading to potentially disastrous, game changing results. This raises the main risk and concern. If these have been the issues in college there is of course the possibility that they will only get worse what with the speed and complexity of the pro game. Whoever picks him early believes or is hoping that these flaws are mostly explained by his being a one year starter and that his proven skill set will permit him to adjust eventually. Even Peyton Manning was a turnover machine his rookie year, and it took M.Ryan awhile to adjust.

Edited April 16, 2017 by starrymessenger

[Buffalo716]

Who do you think he's referring to?

Jonny manziel

[GunnerBill]

Jonny manziel

Manziel's college teammates liked him though I think.

[Buffalo716]

Manziel's college teammates liked him though I think.

He routinely showed up late and drunk to practice his sophomore year. coming out In shorts drunk to run the 2 minute drill

 

I'm sure they liked his game day efforts..

 

But not his prima dona attitude

Edited April 16, 2017 by Buffalo716

[billieve420]

The more I read about Watson the more scared I am of him. Arm strength will be an issue in Buffalo and that alone would be enough to dissuade me from picking him in the 1st. In addition to accuracy and footwork issues watching him on Gruden's QB camp let me feeling unimpressed when it came to his personality. He seems like a mild mannered soft spoken guy who doesn't scream leader to me.

 

If I was going to flame out and pick a QB I would rather risk it with Mahomes if we could trade back and accumulate more picks. He has his flaws for sure but he has some things you just can't teach.

[Guest K-GunJimKelly12]

I am still shocked at how little respect Watson gets. The guy did thing against defenses that regularly produce first and second round talent.

I agree, the whole MPH at the combine on the ball is concerning, however there is the unmeasurable "IT" factor that Watson has.

You always want players that shine when the lights are the brightest and Watson does that in spades.

However, I have to wonder if his turnovers will carry over into the NFL.

You look at or current NFL MVP and his draft year stats. Crazy to think he was so much more regarded than Watson.

Two words, Vince Young.

[BillsFan17]

Two words, Vince Young.

And who knows what his career would have held had he not been a head case.

 

And because VY flamed out means any player that shows up in big time game automatically is linked to VY. Got ya.

[Guest K-GunJimKelly12]

And who knows what his career would have held had he not been a head case.

And because VY flamed out means any player that shows up in big time game automatically is linked to VY. Got ya.

You read a lot into that and VY 1Both have big accuracy, arm strength and footwork questions. Both great athletes which sometimes masks their deficiencies at QB. Most importantly, the post that o replied to made the point that they were great in college against elite competition. Young was great against the best college teams, even beating the Dynasty of his time (USC) in one of the greatest college games ever. They are very similar.

[stuvian]

His writing is pretty thoughtful. In one breath he says that predicting QB success is more art than science while picking apart Watson and Mahomes footwork. He also says QBs don't change much upon becoming pro. I still remember people saying that Newton would never succeed as a pro.

[GunnerBill]

You read a lot into that and VY 1Both have big accuracy, arm strength and footwork questions. Both great athletes which sometimes masks their deficiencies at QB. Most importantly, the post that o replied to made the point that they were great in college against elite competition. Young was great against the best college teams, even beating the Dynasty of his time (USC) in one of the greatest college games ever. They are very similar.

I don't see any similarities really. Young couldn't even throw properly.

[mead107]

No QB at 10

[transplantbillsfan]

So here's a question that might be a bit of a conundrum for readers of this article and advocates of drafting that QB at 10 and seeing this as further proof:

 

 

How much do you value Fahey's analysis?

 

If you research him, he's really turned himself into one of the more prolific "film rats" in terms of QB analysis as of late having worked at FootballOutsiders for years and put out these "presnapreads articles. And I know he's now making TV appearances on the Dan LeBetard show.

 

 

 

 

 

I ask because if you follow him, he really likes Tyrod Taylor and would almost certainly be against drafting any of these QBs at 10.

[jeffismagic]

So here's a question that might be a bit of a conundrum for readers of this article and advocates of drafting that QB at 10 and seeing this as further proof:

 

 

How much do you value Fahey's analysis?

 

If you research him, he's really turned himself into one of the more prolific "film rats" in terms of QB analysis as of late having worked at FootballOutsiders for years and put out these "presnapreads articles. And I know he's now making TV appearances on the Dan LeBetard show.

 

 

 

 

 

I ask because if you follow him, he really likes Tyrod Taylor and would almost certainly be against drafting any of these QBs at 10.

 

He's the worst writer on QB's. I can't think of a close second.

 

He got known for analytics or numbers analysis. Now he is a wannabe Greg Cossell (who also is pretty bad at scouting college QB's).

 

 

Who did Fahey think was the only QB worthy of a 1st round pick last year?

 

Vernon Adams.

 

The most obvious difference between the two is their respective abilities throwing the ball deep downfield. Mariota struggles to throw with precision past 25 yards downfield. Adams has no such issues. His passes sustain velocity long past 25 yards and he can place the ball comfortably whether throwing from a standing position in the pocket or while moving outside of the pocket.

In the above play, Adams lingers on his first read ( ) before pressure arrives in his face. He reacts just in time, turning away from the immediate defender but running into another. This is where Adams’ awareness and athleticism stands out. Despite turning into the defender in a tight space, Adams is able to jump cut away from the defender and escape into the flat.

One of the traits that Wilson and Taylor share is their eye-level. When they break the pocket, they don’t immediately look to run. They keep their eyes downfield to give their receivers every chance to make a play. Adams shows off similar poise here, keeping his eyes downfield and delivering the ball just a linebacker arrives.

Adams drops an accurate pass over the trailing defensive back down the right sideline.

http://presnapreads.com/2016/03/23/vernon-adams-deserves-to-be-a-first-round-pick-in-the-2016-nfl-draft/

Edited April 18, 2017 by jeffismagic

[mead107]

No thanks

[Thurman#1]

qb no.1 evaluation over everything else...td to int. ratio. qbs who are in the 90/10% seem to always succeed vs. 60/40%

 

thats why i'd rather go trubisky 30-6 my ratios above are a general but it's the idea and the number one indicator to me.

 

a qb who throws over 15 picks in a season in college is probably gonna be a pick machine in the pros///jmo

 

 

Matt Ryan threw 19 INTs in his senior year.

 

IMHO, it isn't that simple.

 

But I do like Trubisky.

[Thurman#1]

Who is Howard Cossell? Is he any relation to Howard Cosell, of MNF fame?

 

 

Neither guy is a fossil. I see similarities to HOF OT Tony Boselli,

 

And some not very entertaining humor from some folks on here.

Edited April 18, 2017 by Thurman#1

[transplantbillsfan]

 

He's the worst writer on QB's. I can't think of a close second.

 

He got known for analytics or numbers analysis. Now he is a wannabe Greg Cossell (who also is pretty bad at scouting college QB's).

 

 

Who did Fahey think was the only QB worthy of a 1st round pick last year?

 

Vernon Adams.

The most obvious difference between the two is their respective abilities throwing the ball deep downfield. Mariota struggles to throw with precision past 25 yards downfield. Adams has no such issues. His passes sustain velocity long past 25 yards and he can place the ball comfortably whether throwing from a standing position in the pocket or while moving outside of the pocket.

In the above play, Adams lingers on his first read ( ) before pressure arrives in his face. He reacts just in time, turning away from the immediate defender but running into another. This is where Adams awareness and athleticism stands out. Despite turning into the defender in a tight space, Adams is able to jump cut away from the defender and escape into the flat.

One of the traits that Wilson and Taylor share is their eye-level. When they break the pocket, they dont immediately look to run. They keep their eyes downfield to give their receivers every chance to make a play. Adams shows off similar poise here, keeping his eyes downfield and delivering the ball just a linebacker arrives.

Adams drops an accurate pass over the trailing defensive back down the right sideline.

http://presnapreads.com/2016/03/23/vernon-adams-deserves-to-be-a-first-round-pick-in-the-2016-nfl-draft/

With all due respect, whose opinion do you actually respect?

 

I guarantee you can find at least one massive "swing and a miss" from literally every "expert" or "guru" out there. At least with Fahey you get tangible results for every single NFL QB from every single snap they take. A lot of these other guys just say "here's what I noticed after watching the tape."

[Coach Tuesday]

 

He's the worst writer on QB's. I can't think of a close second.

 

Really? I can...

[jeffismagic]

With all due respect, whose opinion do you actually respect?

 

I guarantee you can find at least one massive "swing and a miss" from literally every "expert" or "guru" out there. At least with Fahey you get tangible results for every single NFL QB from every single snap they take. A lot of these other guys just say "here's what I noticed after watching the tape."

 

If you actually want a guy that is honest and shows his work, Matt Waldman. He actually describes in exact detail what he is judging. He spends time learning what the QB is supposed to do on a play so he can evaluate what he is seeing. For example, I have seen other writers do things like post a clip of a college QB throwing an INT with no context. No mention that the QB is down more than 2 scores in the 4th quarter and has less than 30 seconds on the clock. Common sense and context matter. I like people who use those things and not guys talking about CFL scrubs like Vernon Adams "lingering" on reads or ballet dancing and Kizer.

 

The best part about Waldman is there is nuance. You can go through his notes or watch a one hour video of plays he is showing and feel like you are in control. It's the difference between reading a record review and listening to the thing yourself with notes from someone else.

 

[BuffaloHokie13]

 

 

Matt Ryan threw 19 INTs in his senior year.

 

IMHO, it isn't that simple.

 

But I do like Trubisky.

 

4 of them were to VT, who the poor guy had to play twice

[mannc]

 

If you actually want a guy that is honest and shows his work, Matt Waldman. He actually describes in exact detail what he is judging. He spends time learning what the QB is supposed to do on a play so he can evaluate what he is seeing. For example, I have seen other writers do things like post a clip of a college QB throwing an INT with no context. No mention that the QB is down more than 2 scores in the 4th quarter and has less than 30 seconds on the clock. Common sense and context matter. I like people who use those things and not guys talking about CFL scrubs like Vernon Adams "lingering" on reads or ballet dancing and Kizer.

 

The best part about Waldman is there is nuance. You can go through his notes or watch a one hour video of plays he is showing and feel like you are in control. It's the difference between reading a record review and listening to the thing yourself with notes from someone else.

 

Last year Waldman had Cardale Jones as his second rated QB, behind Goff and ahead of Wentz. Had Dak as 19th-rated QB.

[jeffismagic]

Last year Waldman had Cardale Jones as his second rated QB, behind Goff and ahead of Wentz. Had Dak as 19th-rated QB.

 

As I said, I like Waldman not because I want his ratings, but I do like the way he presents what he is doing. It's a more transparent process and makes any of his draft prospect breakdowns worthwhile.

[mannc]

 

As I said, I like Waldman not because I want his ratings, but I do like the way he presents what he is doing. It's a more transparent process and makes any of his draft prospect breakdowns worthwhile.

I wasn't picking on him--I actually agree with his CJ ranking. And obviously, he wasn't the only one not sold on Dak.

[jeffismagic]

I wasn't picking on him--I actually agree with his CJ ranking. And obviously, he wasn't the only one not sold on Dak.

 

One person I know had this QB board last year:

 

1. Carson Wentz

2. Dak Prescott

3. Jacoby Brissett

[HappyDays]

Last year Waldman had Cardale Jones as his second rated QB, behind Goff and ahead of Wentz. Had Dak as 19th-rated QB.

Oof swing and a miss... I don't really care how good your breakdowns are or whatever if you're that bad at picking QBs, although admittedly it's only been one season to evaluate those rankings.

 

Fahey might not be off on Vernon Adams by the way, he's played exactly one year in the CFL and NFL teams do notoriously overrate size in QB prospects. Not saying I agree with the 1st round designation but it's early for him yet.

[Royale with Cheese]

LMAO can you see on Draft day McDermott looking at Whaley and the top scouts saying "I am trying real hard not to completely lose my **** on all of you right now, but you're not making it easy."

 

My friend you and I agree on many things, but I say Cosell is nothing more than another "expert" that knows nothing. Remember this?

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000152748/article/ryan-nassib-is-top-qb-in-nfl-draft-greg-cosell-says

No one is perfect in this type of position.

Bill Walsh was high on Jim Drunkenmiller and Trent Edwards. Does that mean Bill Walsh knows nothing?

I guess unless you're 100% perfect, you know nothing.

[Last Guy on the Bench]

 

One person I know had this QB board last year:

 

1. Carson Wentz

2. Dak Prescott

3. Jacoby Brissett

That's an impressive board. Who does he/she like this year?

[jeffismagic]

That's an impressive board. Who does he/she like this year?

Mahomes

 

Trubisky

 

Dobbs

[thunderingsquid]

My metric for QBs:

3 or more years of experience with 60%+ completion rate over those years.